Description
A key to a communitys development success is an adequately sized and well trained workforce.
January 25, 2012 – Page 1
WORKFORCE SCENARIOS
The Future of Rawlins County
A key to a community’s development success is an adequately sized and
well trained workforce. Business development and growth are not possible
when an area’s workforce is constrained or inadequate to support growth.
This is particularly true in more rural areas like Rawlins County where the
regional workforce is relatively small and attracting new workforce is
challenging. This analysis compares two workforce scenarios. The first is
based on the State Demographer’s (WSU) original forecasts based on
continued historic decline in Rawlins
County. The second scenario (RUPRI) is
based on the turnaround success of the
2000s continuing and expanding into the
future.
Workforce Trends. The first table on the
next page summarizes the projected total
Rawlins County workforce comparing the
WSU and RUPRI forecasts. The difference
between the two scenarios is striking.
Continued development efforts
comparable to the successes in the 2000s
would result in a 2030 workforce of nearly 1,500 compared to the baseline
forecast at under 1,000 workers.
Worker Type Comparisons. The second table on the next page summarizes
the compositional difference in 2030 between the WSU and RUPRI
scenarios by age cohort. Overall there is a 64% difference, but the greatest
impact is among the critically important “early career” workers (30 to 39)
with nearly a 109% difference. This cohort is critically important to new
business formation, successful business transition and worker talent for
other businesses including area farms and ranches.
Workforce Scenarios is part of a
series of analysis reports prepared
for Rawlins County, KS in support
of its development. We
recommend that you review two
reports before reading Workforce
Scenarios:
The Future of Rawlins County
10% Business Income Scenario
Student Population Scenario
January 25, 2012 – Page 2
Table 1 – Rawlins County Workforce Projections, Two Scenarios
Year WSU RUPRI Change %Change Notes
2000 1,674 1,674 0 Actual historical data.
2005 1,503 1,503 0 Actual historical data.
2010 1,351 1,470 119 8.8% Actual Census data is 1,470 workers.
2015 1,271 1,409 138 10.9% The RUPRI scenario versus the WSU earlier
2020 1,099 1,381 282 25.7% forecast provides for an improving workforce
2025 994 1,413 419 42.2% number over time with a 64%greater number
2030 901 1,476 575 63.8% 2030 or 1,476 versus 901workers.
Sources: Wichita State University, 2005 & RUPRI Center for Rural Entrepreneurship, 2012.
Table 2 – Rawlins County Workforce Projections, By Age Cohort
Category WSU RUPRI Difference %Dif.
Youth (15-19) 121 130 9 7.4%
Young Adults (20-29) 90 135 45 50.0%
Early Career (30-39) 168 351 183 108.9%
Mid-Career (40-54) 348 577 229 65.8%
Late Career (55-64) 175 284 109 62.3%
Total Workforce 901 1,476 575 63.8%
Sources: Wichita State University, 2005 & RUPRI Center for Rural Entrepreneurship, 2012.
The two graphs on the next page provide a visual comparison between the earlier WSU
(pre-turnaround trend line) and the RUPRI (incorporates the turnaround of the 2000s)
forecasts for Rawlins County workforce by key age cohort for the period of 2000
through 2030. Scenario A is the WSU forecast and Scenario C is the RUPRI forecast.
The WSU forecast (based on the 1930 through 2000 historical decline) continues the
pattern of depopulation and the resulting loss of workforce and economic well-being.
The RUPRI forecast which assumes continuation of the successes of the 2000s illustrates
a moderating decline through 2020 and then an improving workforce picture through
2025 and into 2030.
This analysis has been prepared with support from the Kansas Entrepreneurial
Communities Initiative or KECI. KECI is supported by Kansas Farm Bureau, USDA Rural
Development, Kansas Small Business Development Centers, Network Kansas, Advancing
Rural Prosperity and the RUPRI Center for Rural Entrepreneurship.
January 25, 2012 – Page 3
Figure 1 – Rawlins County, KS Workforce Projections
Scenario A - Wichita State University Forecasts
Figure 2 - Rawlins County, KS Workforce Projections
Scenario C – RUPRI/KECI Scenarios
January 25, 2012 – Page 4
The Center for Rural Entrepreneurship is the focal point for
energizing entrepreneurial communities where entrepreneurs
can flourish. Created in 2001 with founding support from the
Kauffman Foundation and the Rural Policy Research Institute
(RUPRI), the Center is located jointly in Nebraska, North Carolina, and Missouri. The Center’s
work to date has been to develop the knowledge base of effective practices and to share that
knowledge through training and strategic engagement across rural America. Working with
economic development practitioners and researchers, the Center conducts practice-driven
research and evaluation that serves as the basis for developing insights into model practices and
other learning. The Center is committed to connecting economic development practitioners and
policy makers to the resources needed to energize entrepreneurs and implement
entrepreneurship as a core economic development strategy. To learn more about the Center,
visit www.energizingentrepreneurs.org.
The Rural Policy Research Institute (RUPRI) functions as a national
scientific research center, identifying and mobilizing teams of
researchers and practitioners across the nation and
internationally to investigate complex and emerging issues in
rural and regional development. Since its founding in 1990,
RUPRI's mission has been to provide independent analysis and information on the challenges,
needs, and opportunities facing rural places and people. Its activities include research, policy
analysis, outreach, and the development of decision support tools. These are conducted through
a small core team in Missouri and Washington DC, and through three centers, including the
Center for Rural Entrepreneurship, and a number of joint initiatives and panels located across
the United States. To learn more about RUPRI, visit www.rupri.org.
About The Center’s Entrepreneurial Community’s Work
Since its founding, the Center has assisted communities and regions in
designing and implementing entrepreneur-focused economic
development strategies. Our Entrepreneurial Community activities
include consultation, opportunity and resource analysis, sharing of
effective practices, and the development of appropriate and targeted
strategies to support entrepreneurs. Our work is always undertaken in
partnership with rooted organizations, public and private, and our goal
is to assist local and regional leaders in developing the capacity to design and implement
sustainable development strategies where the focus is on supporting local entrepreneurial
talent. We have a prospectus about our Entrepreneurial Communities resources that can be
shared free of charge upon request.
Questions and Additional Information
Don Macke -- Center for Rural Entrepreneurship
Voice 402.323.7339 -- Email [email protected] -- www.energizingentrepreneurs.org
DWM:KS
ortfolio:Rawlines:Workforce-Info Sheet
doc_691773932.pdf
A key to a communitys development success is an adequately sized and well trained workforce.
January 25, 2012 – Page 1
WORKFORCE SCENARIOS
The Future of Rawlins County
A key to a community’s development success is an adequately sized and
well trained workforce. Business development and growth are not possible
when an area’s workforce is constrained or inadequate to support growth.
This is particularly true in more rural areas like Rawlins County where the
regional workforce is relatively small and attracting new workforce is
challenging. This analysis compares two workforce scenarios. The first is
based on the State Demographer’s (WSU) original forecasts based on
continued historic decline in Rawlins
County. The second scenario (RUPRI) is
based on the turnaround success of the
2000s continuing and expanding into the
future.
Workforce Trends. The first table on the
next page summarizes the projected total
Rawlins County workforce comparing the
WSU and RUPRI forecasts. The difference
between the two scenarios is striking.
Continued development efforts
comparable to the successes in the 2000s
would result in a 2030 workforce of nearly 1,500 compared to the baseline
forecast at under 1,000 workers.
Worker Type Comparisons. The second table on the next page summarizes
the compositional difference in 2030 between the WSU and RUPRI
scenarios by age cohort. Overall there is a 64% difference, but the greatest
impact is among the critically important “early career” workers (30 to 39)
with nearly a 109% difference. This cohort is critically important to new
business formation, successful business transition and worker talent for
other businesses including area farms and ranches.
Workforce Scenarios is part of a
series of analysis reports prepared
for Rawlins County, KS in support
of its development. We
recommend that you review two
reports before reading Workforce
Scenarios:
The Future of Rawlins County
10% Business Income Scenario
Student Population Scenario
January 25, 2012 – Page 2
Table 1 – Rawlins County Workforce Projections, Two Scenarios
Year WSU RUPRI Change %Change Notes
2000 1,674 1,674 0 Actual historical data.
2005 1,503 1,503 0 Actual historical data.
2010 1,351 1,470 119 8.8% Actual Census data is 1,470 workers.
2015 1,271 1,409 138 10.9% The RUPRI scenario versus the WSU earlier
2020 1,099 1,381 282 25.7% forecast provides for an improving workforce
2025 994 1,413 419 42.2% number over time with a 64%greater number
2030 901 1,476 575 63.8% 2030 or 1,476 versus 901workers.
Sources: Wichita State University, 2005 & RUPRI Center for Rural Entrepreneurship, 2012.
Table 2 – Rawlins County Workforce Projections, By Age Cohort
Category WSU RUPRI Difference %Dif.
Youth (15-19) 121 130 9 7.4%
Young Adults (20-29) 90 135 45 50.0%
Early Career (30-39) 168 351 183 108.9%
Mid-Career (40-54) 348 577 229 65.8%
Late Career (55-64) 175 284 109 62.3%
Total Workforce 901 1,476 575 63.8%
Sources: Wichita State University, 2005 & RUPRI Center for Rural Entrepreneurship, 2012.
The two graphs on the next page provide a visual comparison between the earlier WSU
(pre-turnaround trend line) and the RUPRI (incorporates the turnaround of the 2000s)
forecasts for Rawlins County workforce by key age cohort for the period of 2000
through 2030. Scenario A is the WSU forecast and Scenario C is the RUPRI forecast.
The WSU forecast (based on the 1930 through 2000 historical decline) continues the
pattern of depopulation and the resulting loss of workforce and economic well-being.
The RUPRI forecast which assumes continuation of the successes of the 2000s illustrates
a moderating decline through 2020 and then an improving workforce picture through
2025 and into 2030.
This analysis has been prepared with support from the Kansas Entrepreneurial
Communities Initiative or KECI. KECI is supported by Kansas Farm Bureau, USDA Rural
Development, Kansas Small Business Development Centers, Network Kansas, Advancing
Rural Prosperity and the RUPRI Center for Rural Entrepreneurship.
January 25, 2012 – Page 3
Figure 1 – Rawlins County, KS Workforce Projections
Scenario A - Wichita State University Forecasts
Figure 2 - Rawlins County, KS Workforce Projections
Scenario C – RUPRI/KECI Scenarios
January 25, 2012 – Page 4
The Center for Rural Entrepreneurship is the focal point for
energizing entrepreneurial communities where entrepreneurs
can flourish. Created in 2001 with founding support from the
Kauffman Foundation and the Rural Policy Research Institute
(RUPRI), the Center is located jointly in Nebraska, North Carolina, and Missouri. The Center’s
work to date has been to develop the knowledge base of effective practices and to share that
knowledge through training and strategic engagement across rural America. Working with
economic development practitioners and researchers, the Center conducts practice-driven
research and evaluation that serves as the basis for developing insights into model practices and
other learning. The Center is committed to connecting economic development practitioners and
policy makers to the resources needed to energize entrepreneurs and implement
entrepreneurship as a core economic development strategy. To learn more about the Center,
visit www.energizingentrepreneurs.org.
The Rural Policy Research Institute (RUPRI) functions as a national
scientific research center, identifying and mobilizing teams of
researchers and practitioners across the nation and
internationally to investigate complex and emerging issues in
rural and regional development. Since its founding in 1990,
RUPRI's mission has been to provide independent analysis and information on the challenges,
needs, and opportunities facing rural places and people. Its activities include research, policy
analysis, outreach, and the development of decision support tools. These are conducted through
a small core team in Missouri and Washington DC, and through three centers, including the
Center for Rural Entrepreneurship, and a number of joint initiatives and panels located across
the United States. To learn more about RUPRI, visit www.rupri.org.
About The Center’s Entrepreneurial Community’s Work
Since its founding, the Center has assisted communities and regions in
designing and implementing entrepreneur-focused economic
development strategies. Our Entrepreneurial Community activities
include consultation, opportunity and resource analysis, sharing of
effective practices, and the development of appropriate and targeted
strategies to support entrepreneurs. Our work is always undertaken in
partnership with rooted organizations, public and private, and our goal
is to assist local and regional leaders in developing the capacity to design and implement
sustainable development strategies where the focus is on supporting local entrepreneurial
talent. We have a prospectus about our Entrepreneurial Communities resources that can be
shared free of charge upon request.
Questions and Additional Information
Don Macke -- Center for Rural Entrepreneurship
Voice 402.323.7339 -- Email [email protected] -- www.energizingentrepreneurs.org
DWM:KS
ortfolio:Rawlines:Workforce-Info Sheet doc_691773932.pdf