The Prophecy of Third Flush…
By: Amit Bhushan Date: 15th Feb. 2020
With general elections giving decisive mandate to the current regime, some of the Netas and political parties sought to dismiss the prophecy of Third Flush, first published in these articles in Management Paradise (http://www.managementparadise.com/article/10219/mis-placed-politics-of-achievement-amp-debates). The decisive mandate was seen as one, which would have ensured a resolute party and Neta, rather than a political struggle for survival across the political spectrum. To put it candidly, expectations of ‘Your’s Truly’ for the general elections were a bit at variance by about 40-70 seats, with the ruling party managing its conduct much better than say the ‘opposition combine’. This may have been on account of too many criss-cross in opposition rank & file, however the author doesn’t want to hide behind the excuse for the expectation mismatch as these were set keeping the chaos in mind rather than a well stiched up opposition taking upon the ruling party/coalition. Even now there seem to be too many criss-crosses that mar the electoral ranks of the ‘opposition combine’, however it seems that this can possibly be managed when the contest is about state and their cheiftains. While politics is still a bit difficult to predict ‘ki oont kab kis karwat baithega’, considering that attempts for formal ‘alliance’ have returned a duck, often. These articles have in any case predicted a political churning amongst parties and Netas - with or without any alliance, that is. Had the things gone as per prophecy, we may have seen a coalition in power may be led by the same party, but that may have avoided some of the current debates may be…
The results in Delhi elections however goes on to show that the undercurrent of political churn as per prophecy of Third Flush, continues to run unabated. However considering the organizational strength in one party which also happens to be the ruling party, the parties and Netas in the opposition will also need to be better organized, for impact to be maximized. Now this could be via an open declared alliance or informal understanding, however whereever a credible (read well-coordinated and with reasonably good ground presence, lower criss-crosses) opposition can stand up, it would result in ‘political churn re-starting’, and for which polity itself (any political party) doesn’t have an answer as of now. Just as the ruling dispensation felt that they got ‘answer’ with the victory in general elections, came a string of losses. Now the newbie party is proposing its concept as electoral nirvana, but a combination of various factors will need to be studied and conjuring all these in other states would have its own challenges. Though it must be said that the concoction by the ‘opposition combine’ has now been depicted in not only Delhi elections but also earlier in Jharkhand, albeit to a limited extent. The earlier elections in state where criss-crosses were much higher although not at the level of the general elections also witnessed churn, even if the element of ‘Game politics’ may have taken a back-seat and political brinksmanship, back-room deal-making may have been the order of the day like in Haryana and Maharastra. The role of state level Netas/regional leadership rising in importance as predicted by these article almost five years ago, is now being acknowledged by not only the media but even by the national parties and their leadership. The national parties and their may have their task cut out to have/develop their own regional leaders and/or achieve coordination with leadership of local parties or even pursue these simulataneously for their own political goals. It may also face a rising aspirations amongst Netas within its fold which tends to exacerbate the criss-crosses and start to reduce the impact.
However with results, we are likely to have a somewhat better understanding amongst the state level Netas and leadership about the churn/Third Flush. Though this is not going to be a case with only the opposition Netas, but also the Netas in government (at state as well as in center). This would likely push the Netas to focus upon performance and debates about the same on the media, as other parameters have shown that they can be contested by political challengers with success. It may be noted that we still have some of the domestic and even some international forces that remain glued to old school issues, with very low focus ‘gun-running or stoppage of the same’, and a general disdain for people’s goals and expectations on education/healthcare/jobs/justice/industry/environ etc. These (non-Game Netas) would continue to likely veer political debates around select lobbies like religious bigots, narrow divisive interests, machination of select business lobbies, self-interest/oneupmanship etc. hwoever may face some very deft footwork from Netas and parties that would revoke ‘Game issues’ to counter these. Some fo the forces would be out to depict that Game issues are irrevalent in their respective sphere of influence. However with increased proliferation of the one-to-many media like the social media sites, mobile OTT channels etc. it would be increasingly difficult to box the ‘Game issues’ and also the parties/Netas riding on the same. We will also continue to have seen things such as natural calamities, public safety issues like CoronaVirus etc. which would continue to mingle/digress political attention, but these would prove to be temporary blips. One can keep watching for the changing contours of political debates. Let the ‘Game’ evolve….