Description
National Bank Financial The Week At A Glance
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Change Week
% Change
Week
% Change
YTD
%Change 1
Year
Trailing
P/E
-41.44 -0.23% 2.29% 10.20% 15.8
4.03 0.19% 3.30% 12.38% 18.8
39.66 0.79% 7.43% 22.47% 30.4
66.77 0.44% 3.71% 3.21% 21.7
Dow J ones Euro Stoxx 50 3,679.06 105.99 2.97% 16.93% 15.42% 21.1
FTSE 100 (UK) 7,031.72 71.23 1.02% 7.09% 3.10% 22.2
DAX (Germany) 11,815.01 367.98 3.21% 20.49% 21.54% 19.1
Nikkei 225 (J apan) 20,264.41 531.49 2.69% 16.12% 41.34% 22.9
Hang Seng 27,992.83 170.55 0.61% 18.59% 21.95% 11.9
MSCI World 1,810.84 3.78 0.21% 5.92% 7.00% 19.0
MSCI EAFE -1.08 -0.06% 9.78% 0.71% 18.5
Change Week
% Change
Week
% Change
YTD
%Change 1
Year
Trailing
P/E
23.32 1.17% 7.11% 26.96% 23.4
-39.95 -1.04% 1.20% 38.05% 31.0
7.42 0.28% 0.31% -18.78% 45.4
13.34 0.58% 0.69% 5.74% 13.0
224.55 7.23% 64.43% 94.13% 80.4
-16.54 -0.71% -4.59% 8.67% 21.0
-1.61 -0.76% 9.06% 41.14% 33.9
-29.62 -1.37% 7.55% -5.21% 56.1
8.09 0.64% -0.24% 2.66% 16.3
-31.08 -1.57% -0.44% 2.93% 40.6
Change Week
% Change
Week
% Change
YTD
%Change 1
Year
NBF
2015E
-0.92 -1.54% 10.32% -43.56% $56.50
-0.10 -3.28% 0.97% -33.08% $2.70
-17.70 -1.45% 1.81% -6.77% $1,250.00
CRB Index -5.30 -2.29% -1.65% -26.48% NA
Curr. Net
Change
% Change
Week
% Change
YTD
%Change 1
Year
NBF 4Q
2015E
-0.0181 -2.17% -5.37% -11.32% 0.79
-0.0419 -3.66% -8.81% -19.21% 1.05
-0.0239 -1.52% -0.57% -8.19% 1.45
-0.0001 -1.77% -1.45% -16.23% 0.0080645
Oil-WTI futures (US$/Barrels)
S&P TSX Consumer Discretionary
S&P/TSX Composite
S&P TSX Info Tech.
S&P TSX SECTORS
S&P TSX Industrials
5,087.96
S&P TSX Health Care
S&P TSX Energy
3,811
Nasdaq Composite
S&P TSX Consumer Staples
S&P TSX Financials
2,015
Last price
2,310
Last price
S&P 500
18,231.12
2,126.76
INDEX
Dow J ones Industrial
226.16
$2.92
$1,206.36
2,302
2,128
$58.77
1,273
Last price
211
1,955
Yen
Pound
Last price
1.1032
0.0082
1.5488
Euro
0.8143
CURRENCIES in US$
Cdn$
15,174.89
2,698
Gold Spot (US$/OZ)
Natural gas futures (US$/mcf)
S&P TSX Materials
1,948.41
S&P TSX Telecom Services
S&P TSX Utilities
3,331
COMMODITIES
May 22
nd
, 2015
P Pr ri i v va at t e e W We ea al l t t h h M Ma an na ag ge em me en nt t
R Re es se ea ar r c ch h S Se er rv vi i c ce es s
Contact your Investment
Advisor for more information
regarding this document.
THE WEEK IN NUMBERS
(May 18
th
– May 22
nd
)
For NBF Disclosures, please visit URL: http://www.nbcn.ca/contactus/disclosures.html
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research Approximate time: 11:30 am
FIXED INCOME
NUMBERS
THE WEEK IN NUMBERS
(May 18
th
– May 22
nd
)
Last yield
Change Week
in bps
Change YTD
in bps
Change One
Year in bps
0.75% 0.0 -25 -25
0.63% -1.1 -28 -28
0.68% 3.6 -33 -37
1.06% 6.1 -27 -51
1.78% 6.8 -1 -52
2.36% 2.8 3 -48
5 Yr Canada Government
10 Yr Canada Government
CANADIAN YIELD CURVE
3 Month T-Bill
CDA Overnight
2 Yr Canada Government
30 Yr Canada Government
Change Week
Change
Y-T-D
0.39% 1.89%
0.07% 1.51%
0.30% 2.36%
0.84% 2.12%
FTSE Mid Term Bond Index
FTSE Universe Bond Index
FTSE Short Term Bond Index
FTSE Long Term Bond Index
CANADIAN BOND - TOTAL
RETURN
Last yield
Change Week
in bps
Change YTD
in bps
Change One
Year in bps
0.25% 0.0 0 0
0.02% 0.5 -2 -2
0.61% 7.8 -5 28
1.57% 10.8 -8 5
2.22% 8.1 5 -31
3.00% 7.1 25 -41
3 Month T-Bill
2 Yr US Bonds
30 Yr US Bonds
5 Yr US Bonds
10 Yr US Bonds
US YIELD CURVE
U.S. FED Funds
CURRENT YIELD CURVE
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Term
y
i
e
l
d
CANADA
U.S
Last spread in
basis points (bp)
Change Week
in bps
Change YTD
in bps
Change One
Year in bps
35 -0.3 2 3
38 -0.6 -10 -29
53 1.1 -4 2
133 -2.9 -13 12
84 -3.1 -6 8
CAD Housing Trust AAA
Canada Corp BBB
Canada Corp Bank AA
Province Quebec
Province Ontario
CANADIAN 5YR SPREADS
Last spread in
basis points (bp)
Change Week
in bps
Change YTD
in bps
Change One
Year in bps
66 1.1 -23 -25
75 1.8 -17 -10
174 -3.2 -8 26
US Finance AA 83 1.5 6 9
US Corp BBB 167 -2.4 0 35
CDN & US 10 YR SPREADS
Province Quebec
Province Ontario
Canada Corp BBB
Sources: Bloomberg & PC Bonds
The Week at a Glance
«
NBF Economic
& Strategy
Group
WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH - WEEK IN REVIEW
CANADA – The consumer pri ce index fell 0.1% in April, allowing the year-on-year inflation
rate to drop to 0.8%, the lowest since November 2013. In seasonally adjusted terms, CPI also fell
0.1%, as declines for transportation, clothing/footwear, shelter and recreation/education more than
offset gains in the other four broad categories. The core CPI, which excludes eight of the most
volatile items, was up 0.1%, but that couldn’t prevent a one-tick drop in the year-on-year core
inflation rate to 2.3% (from 2.4%). In seasonally-adjusted terms, core CPI was flat. Assuming
seasonal patterns hold in May and J une, CPI is on track to grow in Q2 by 0.7% annualized for the
headline and 2.2% annualized for the core, close to the Bank of Canada’s April’s Monetary Policy
Report estimates of 0.8% for the headline and 2.1% for the core. So, don’t expect much change
from the central bank’s policy stance for now.
Retail sales rose 0.7% in March, after a downwardly revised 1.5% increase in the prior month.
Sales rose in 7 of the 11 subsectors, including a 1.5% increase for autos/parts dealers. Excluding
autos, sales rose 0.5%. There were increases observed for sellers of furniture, building materials,
food/beverage, health/personal care products, clothing, and miscellaneous items which dwarfed
decreases for sellers of electronics, gasoline, sporting goods, and general merchandise. In real
terms, retail sales rose just 0.1%. Overall, the Canadian retail results were much better than
expected even considering the downward revision to the prior month. The retail volume increase
adds to solid performances reported earlier from factories and the wholesale sector, suggesting
Canada’s GDP growth accelerated in March, i.e. a good handoff to Q2. The Q1 picture, however, is
less rosy with real retail sales contracting at an annualized pace of 1.6%, the worst since 2012.
Wholesale sal es rose 0.8% in March, close to consensus expectations. There were increases in
five of the 7 subsectors, including +0.7% for autos/parts, +2.8% for building materials, +1.2% for
food/beverage, and +1.5% for personal/household goods. Inventories were up 1%. In real terms,
wholesale sales rose 1% in March, although not preventing a 7.4% annualized contraction in Q1
because of the poor start to the year.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz didn’t signal any change in the central bank’s policy
stance in a speech in Charlottetown this week. He again said that the impact of the oil shock is
proving to be faster than expected but not larger. But the impact on the labour market isn’t as front-
loaded based on his comments that “we probably still haven’t seen the full impact of the oil price
shock reflected in the employment data”. Output was about flat in the first quarter, but the BoC
expects growth will rebound, particularly in the second half of the year and put Canada back on
track to reach full capacity around the end of 2016. While core inflation remains above the central
bank’s 2% target, Governor Poloz said that was due to temporary factors and pegged the
“underlying trend” between 1.6% and 1.8%. Following the speech, the Governor gave a press
conference in which he admitted the central bank couldn’t be sure about the overall impact of the
oil shock on the economy. With regards to the US, the Governor said it’s too early to say how
strong the economy will be in Q2. He still sounded confident that the Canadian economy will
benefit from the US moving from a consumer led recovery to investment led growth.
UNITED STATES – The consumer price index rose just 0.1% in April, causing the annual
inflation rate to drop to -0.2% (from -0.1% in the prior month). The 1.3% decrease in energy prices
and flat food prices weighed on the CPI. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% thanks to
gains for medical care, recreation, and apparel among others, which allowed the year-on-year core
inflation rate to stay unchanged at 1.8%. All told, prices generally remain mild. We expect inflation
to remain soft as the strong US dollar continues to cap import prices and offset the natural lift to
prices brought by a strengthening economy. Based only on inflation considerations, the Fed is
under no pressure to hike interest rates.
Housing starts soared 20.2% to 1135K in April, from an upwardly revised 944K in the prior month.
There were big increases for both single-family homes (+16.7%) and multis (+27.2%). Building
permit applications also jumped 10.1% to 1143K in April. The increase was largely due to multis
(+20.5%) although permits for single family homes were also up 3.7%.
The Week at a Glance
«
NBF Economic
& Strategy
Group
Existing home sales fell 3.3% to 5.04 million units in April after an upwardly revised print of 5.21
million units in the prior month. The declines were entirely due to single family units (-3.7%),
while sales of multis were flat. The months supply of homes at current sales rate jumped to 5.3,
the highest since September last year. But the median resale price rose to $219,400 and is now
8.9% higher than year-ago levels (+10% for singles and +0.4% for multis). About 24% of April
sales were made to cash buyers while the share of distressed sales in total sales was unchanged
at 10%.
The leading indicator rose a consensus-topping 0.7% in April, the largest monthly increase
since J uly last year. The biggest contributors to the increase were building permits and interest
rate spreads.
The Philadelphi a Fed index of manufacturing activity fell to 6.7 in May (from 7.5 in the prior
month). The employment subindex fell a bit but remained in expansion territory. The shipments
and new orders sub-index rose and are both in expansion mode.
Fed minutes highlighted discussions among FOMC participants about whether the weakness in
Q1 reflected temporary factors or a more long-lasting loss of momentum. The general view was
that Q1 was a temporary setback although a number of participants suggested that the impact of
the dollar on net exports and the decline in oil prices on investments spending might be larger
and longer-lasting than previously anticipated. A few participants thought downside risk to the
economy had increased since March. There were discussions about financial stability, and some
participants were concerned that term premiums may increase sharply once the FOMC begins
policy normalization. They thought that the combination of high-frequency traders, decreased
inventories of bonds held by dealers, and elevated assets of bond funds, was a recipe for greater
bond market volatility than in the past. As for the timing of rate lift-off, many participants thought it
was unlikely that the data available in J une would provide sufficient confirmation that conditions
for raising the fed funds rate had been satisfied. In other words, rate hikes are likely to be
delayed to the second half of the year.
WORLD – In J apan, GDP expanded for the second straight quarter in Q1 with a +2.4%
annualized print, the biggest jump since 2013. Domestic demand, helped by a solid performance
from consumers and to a lesser extent housing and investment, more than offset the drag from
trade.
The Week at a Glance
«
NBF Economic
& Strategy
Group
WORLD WATCH
World: Trade volumes sank in Q1
Global economic activity continues to be powered by the services sector as manufacturing woes
persist. The latter is largely due to trade volumes which took a dive in the first quarter of 2015.
The near-6% annualized drop suggested by latest CPB data is the worst since 2009 when the
world economy was in recession. So what exactly happened in Q1? Put simply, there were two
major factors restraining factories in the first quarter, one temporary and one more structural in
nature. Atypically bad weather and port strikes on the US west coast hurt global trade flows, and
hence manufacturing, and a rebound can therefore be expected as those temporary factors
dissipate. Less encouraging, however, is the deceleration in China’s GDP growth which is more
structural in nature. Emerging economies with supply chain linkages to the world’s second largest
economy are not surprisingly also seeing a moderation in growth.
CANADA WATCH
Canada: Are EI claims near a peak?
Data released yesterday showed the number of Canadians receiving employment insurance (EI)
benefits rising for the fourth consecutive month, the worst sequence since the 2008-2009
recession. As bad as this might sound, things must be kept in perspective. The cumulative
increase in the number of EI beneficiaries since last December is only 22,000 (roughly 0.1% of
the labour force). As the Hot Chart shows, this number pales in comparison to worst of the
deterioration observed during the last recession (as high as 220,000). The other thing to keep in
mind is that the bulk of the recent increase in beneficiaries was concentrated in Alberta. This is
not a country-wide deterioration. So where do we go from here? In light of the recent increase in
oil prices, there is scope for more optimism on Canadian labour markets. The number of new EI
claims actually edged down in March at the national level with Alberta showing some stabilization.
The Week at a Glance
The Week at a Glance
IN THE NEWS
U.S. and Canadian News
Monday May 18
th
, 2015
- Confidence Among U.S. Homebuilders
Unexpectedl y Fell in May
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo
sentiment gauge dropped to 54 this month from 56 in
April. Readings greater than 50 mean more respondents
report good market conditions. The median forecast
called for an increase to 57.
- Ascena Agrees to Buy Ann Taylor Owner for $2.16
Billion
Ascena Retail Group Inc. agreed to buy Ann Inc. for
about $2.16 billion, unifying the Ann Taylor and Lane
Bryant brands in a bid to attract more working women.
- Brookfield Agrees to Buy Graphite Maker for $546
Million
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire
GrafTech International Ltd., a U.S. maker of graphite
used in electrodes.
- Billionaire Icahn Says Apple's Shares Are Worth
$240
Apple Inc., which already announced it was boosting its
capital-return program by $70 billion, should increase its
stock buyback, Carl Icahn wrote in a letter to the
company.
Tuesday May 19
th
, 2015
- Housing Starts in U.S. Surge to Seven-Year High
Housing starts jumped 20.2 percent to a 1.14 million
annualized rate, the most since November 2007, from a
944,000 pace in March. The median forecast of
economists was 1.02 million. More permits, a proxy for
future construction, were issued than at any time since
J une 2008.
- Canada faces looming housing crisis as one in five
renters forced to pay 50% of income on home
The country has a looming housing problem that is
going to require action from all levels of government,
according to a new report from the Federation of
Canadian Municipalities. The study says the long,
steady decline in federal subsidies for social housing
has left provinces, territories and municipalities
struggling against market forces that are making it
increasingly difficult for low and modest-income renters.
- Stephen Poloz warns impact of oil shock on
economy may take years to work itself out
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says the
country’s recovery from the recession “has been a long
voyage, and it isn’t over yet,” but there are signs the
economy will gradually recover — even with the latest
challenge of an oil-price collapse.
Wednesday May 20
th
, 2015
- Many Fed Officials Said June Liftoff Unlikel y,
Minutes Show
Federal Reserve officials last month didn’t expect to
raise rates at their next meeting in J une even as they
concluded that a first-quarter economic slowdown was
unlikely to persist, minutes of the meeting show.
- Canada wholesale trade rises in March
The value of Canadian wholesale trade in March rebounded
after two consecutive declines, rising 0.8 percent from
February to $53.94 billion. Analysts had expected a 0.9
percent increase in March. In volume terms, wholesale sales
increased by 1.0 percent.
- B.C. signs development deal with Petronas LNG venture
The B.C. government has signed a project development
agreement with the Pacific NorthWest LNG joint venture led
by Malaysia’s Petronas.
- BCE, Larry Tanenbaum Agree to Buy Argonauts
Football Team
BCE Inc and investor Larry Tanenbaum agreed to buy the
Toronto Argonauts professional football team from sports
entrepreneur David Braley.
Thursday May 21
st
, 2015
- Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall Over Past Month to 15-Year
Low
The four-week average for jobless claims decreased to
266,250 in the period ended May 16 from 271,750. The
figure corresponds to the week the government surveys
employers to calculate the monthly payroll data. On a
weekly basis, applications rose by 10,000 to 274,000.
- Sales of Previousl y Owned U.S. Homes Unexpectedl y
Decline
Contract closings dropped 3.3 percent to a 5.04 million
annualized rate after a 5.21 million pace that was the
strongest in almost two years. The median forecast of
economists called for a rise to 5.23 million. Prices jumped as
the number of houses for sales declined from the same time
last year.
- CVS to Buy Omnicare in $12.7 Billion Pharmacy
Expansion Deal
CVS Health Corp. agreed to acquire nursing-home
pharmacy Omnicare Inc. in a deal valued at $12.7 billion,
adding services for the elderly to bolster its position as the
biggest U.S. retailer of prescription drugs.
- Manulife planning IPO of U.S assets in Singapore
Manulife Financial Corp. is seeking to list some of its U.S.
property assets in Singapore in the second half of the year
in an initial public offering worth $450 million US.
Friday May 22
nd
, 2015
- Core U.S. Consumer Prices Rose in April by Most in
Two Years
The core consumer-price index climbed 0.3 percent, the
biggest gain since J anuary 2013, reflecting broad-based
increases. The median forecast of economists called for a
0.2 percent advance. Prices including food and fuel rose 0.1
percent.
- Canada’s April inflation slowest since 2013 on cheaper
energy
The University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment
dropped to 88.6, the lowest since October, from 95.9 in
April. The 7.3 point decrease was the largest since
December 2012. The outcome was lower than the lowest
estimate of economists.
Click on title to view the full story.
The Week at a Glance
IN THE NEWS
International News
Monday May 18
th
, 2015
- Greek Endgame Nears for Tsipras as Collateral
Evaporates
Greek banks are running short on the collateral they
need to stay alive, a crisis that could help force Prime
Minister Alexis Tsipras’s hand after weeks of
brinkmanship with creditors.
- BOE Holds Rate at 0.5% as Carney Prepares to
Signal Outlook
The Bank of England governor has an opportunity this
week to address bets that he’ll keep interest rates
unchanged until mid-2016. The bank maintained the
benchmark at 0.5 percent on Monday.
- China Adds Stimulus With Third Interest-Rate Cut in
6 Months
The People’s Bank of China reduced the one-year
lending rate 0.25 percentage point to 5.1 percent and
cut the one-year deposit rate by the same amount to
2.25 percent. In another step to free up interest rates,
the central bank will also raise the limit on what banks
can pay savers.
Tuesday May 19
th
, 2015
- Merkel Gives Greece 12 Days to Reach Financing
Accord
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French
President Francois Hollande gave Greece until the end
of May to reach a deal on its aid program, urging faster
talks to end the standoff over the country’s financing.
- Ukraine Piles Pressure on Creditors Payment-Delay
Powers
Ukraine raised the pressure on creditors to accept a
writedown on their holdings as the government secured
permission to halt debt payments.
- Coeure Says ECB Will Moderatel y Frontload QE in
May, June
The European Central Bank intends to increase its
purchases of euro-area assets in May and J une ahead
of an expected low-liquidity period in the summer,
Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said.
- European Car Sales Rise a 20th Month
Registrations increased 6.9 percent from a year earlier
to 1.21 million vehicles. Four-month sales jumped 8.1
percent to 4.85 million cars. The gains extend the auto
market’s longest growth streak since the ACEA began
compiling figures in 1990 and maintain a recovery from a
two-decade low reached in 2013.
- China stocks jump the most in four months on
reform plan
Chinese stocks posted their biggest advance in nearly
four months on Tuesday, after the government unveiled
guidelines to reform its economic system in 2015, which
includes further opening up capital markets.
Wednesday May 20
th
, 2015
- ECB Gives Smallest Aid Increase Yet for Greek Banks
as Talks Due
The European Central Bank approved the smallest rise in
emergency cash for Greek lenders since tensions re-
emerged in February, in a sign that deposit outflows may be
easing as political talks on the nation’s finances improve.
- Altice to Acquire Suddenlink Stake in $9.1 Billion U.S.
Deal
Altice SA agreed to acquire control of Suddenlink
Communications in a $9.1 billion transaction that marks
French-Israeli billionaire Patrick Drahi’s first foray in the U.S.
cable market.
- Japan’s Economy Grows
J apan’s gross domestic product expanded an annualized
2.4% during the first quarter, higher than a 1.5% gain
forecast by economists.
Thursday May 21
st
, 2015
- Hollande Says Three-Way Tsipras Talks to Pave Way for
Greek Deal
French President Francois Hollande opened the prospect of
striking a political deal with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras
that unlocks bailout aid for Greece within days.
- Euro-Area Recovery Stutters as China’s Factory
Weakness Persists
Markit Economics said its composite index of services and
manufacturing in the euro zone slipped to 53.4 from 53.9 in
April.It’s less than the 53.9 forecast by economists.
- Chinese Factory Gauge Remains Sluggish on Economic
Slowdown
The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC
Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was at 49.1 for May,
missing the median estimate of 49.3.
Friday May 22
nd
, 2015
- Merkel, Hollande Tell Greece to Take Route A to
Agreement
Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande told Greece there’s no
alternative to dealing with creditors as it seeks to unlock
bailout funds, after another round of negotiations failed to
break the impasse over aid.
- Draghi Urges Reforms as ECB Trapped in
Unconventional Policy
The ECB President said euro-area countries must
accelerate overhauls of their economies not only to raise
growth and bring down unemployment, but also to allow
monetary policy makers to deliver faster inflation.
- Brazil Boosts Taxes on Banks Before Rolling Out
Budget Cuts
Banks, brokerages and credit-card processors among
others will pay a 20 percent tax on profit, up from 15
percent. The measure will boost tax collection by about 5
billion reais.
- ABN Amro Sale Goes Ahead in IPO Valuing Bank at
$16.6 Billion
The Dutch government is proceeding with plans to sell
shares of ABN Amro Group NV to the public as soon as this
year, helping to recoup the state bailout seven years after
rescuing the lender.
Click on title to view the full story.
The Week at a Glance
S&P/TSX WEEKLY PERFORMERS
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Magna Internati onal Inc (MG)
ShawCor Ltd (SCL)
RMP Energy Inc (RMP)
B2Gol d Corp (BTO)
Interfor Corp. (IFP)
Val eant Pharmaceuti cal s Internati onal Inc. …
Crew Energy Inc (CR)
Canfor Corp (CFP)
Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF)
ATS Automati on Tool i ng Systems Inc. (ATA)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5.57%
5.61%
6.07%
6.40%
7.84%
8.01%
8.93%
9.22%
10.89%
12.91%
S&P/TSX weekly best performers
-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
Fi rst Quantum Mi neral s Ltd (FM)
Open Text Corp (OTC)
Cameco Corp (CCO)
Sherri tt Internati onal Corp (S)
Canexus Corp (CUS)
Capstone Mi ni ng Corp (CS)
Bombardi er Inc (BBD.b)
Maj or Dri l l i ng Group Internati onal (MDI)
HudBay Mi neral s Inc (HBM)
Preti um Resources Inc (PVG)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-11.70%
-10.70%
-9.52%
-8.06%
-7.49%
-7.38%
-7.09%
-6.62%
-6.45%
-6.36%
S&P/TSX weekly worst performers
The performance is calculated from the close of Friday’s previous week until Friday 11:30 a.m. of this week.
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
The Week at a Glance
Company Symbol Current Rating Previous Rating
Current
Target
Previous
Target
Closing
Price
AirBoss of America Corp. BOS Outperform Outperform C$18.50 C$17.00 C$16.91
ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc. ATA Outperform Outperform C$17.00 C$16.00 C$14.50
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM Sector Perform Sector Perform C$101.00 C$100.00 C$95.66
Crombie REIT CRR.un Outperform Outperform C$15.00 C$15.25 C$12.80
DataWind Inc. DW Sector Perform C$4.00 $0.00 C$3.62
DeeThree Exploration Ltd. DTX Not Rated Outperform C$8.50 $0.00
Element Financial Corp. EFN Restricted Restricted C$17.73
IBI Group Inc. IBG Sector Perform Sector Perform C$2.50 C$2.00 C$2.24
Medical Facilities Corporation DR Sector Perform Sector Perform C$18.00 C$17.00 C$17.35
Midas Gold Corp. MAX Outperform Restricted C$0.90 Restricted C$0.42
Milestone Apartments REIT MST.UN Restricted Restricted C$13.52
New Flyer Industries Inc. NFI Outperform Outperform C$16.50 C$15.50 C$15.30
Open Text OTC Sector Perform Sector Perform US$55.00 US$60.00 C$51.80
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. OR Outperform Sector Perform C$20.00 C$18.00 C$17.85
Slate Office REIT SOT.UN Restricted Restricted C$7.73
Storm Resources Ltd. SRX Restricted Restricted C$4.75
Temple Hotels Inc. TPH Sector Perform Sector Perform C$2.50 C$2.00 C$2.39
Toronto-Dominion Bank TD Outperform Outperform C$60.00 C$59.00 C$56.13
Vicwest Inc. VIC Tender C$12.70 C$12.69
WesternOne Equity WEQ Sector Perform Sector Perform C$1.50 C$2.00 C$1.13
WPT Industrial REIT WIR.U Outperform Outperform US$14.50 US$12.50 US$12.60
NBF RATINGS & TARGET PRICE CHANGES
The Week at a Glance
NBF ACTION IDEAS
TORONTO DOMINION BANK (TD) CLOSING PRICE: $56.13 RATING: OUTPERFORM TARGET PRICE:
$60.00
COMPANY PROFILE
TD Bank is the second largest Canadian bank in terms of assets. TD operates along four business lines.
Canadian and U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking provide a wide range of personal banking services in their
respective jurisdictions. Wealth Management offers self-directed brokerage services and full service brokerage to
individual investors, as well as investment management services for institutional and high net worth individuals.
The Wholesale Bank provides capital market products and services.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
NBF reiterated its Outperform rating on Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) and raised its price target to $60.00 from
$59.00 in its Q2 f2015 earnings preview. TD is NBF’s top pick amongst the Big Six Canadian banks and is the
only one rated Outperform. TD reports 2Q results on Thursday, May 28
th
before the market open. NBF is
forecasting core cash EPS (excl. IFRS dilution) of $1.11 (-1.0% q/q and +1.9% y/y) and net income to common
EPS (IFRS) of $1.08 (-0.8% q/q and +4.0% y/y)
NBF starts from the premise that housing is the principal form of collateral underpinning the quality of household
credit in Canada. While Canadian household debt to disposable income remains at near record highs, the
household debt service ratio also sits at a record low and NBF concludes that while Canadian households are not
stressed at present, high levels of debt do leave them vulnerable to exogenous shocks. As long as home prices
continue to rise (and interest rates remain low), this should sustain borrowing and buoy consumer sentiment. In
other words, unless and until house prices deteriorate materially across \the country, we will not see a sudden
burst of Canadian household loan losses at the Big Six banks that impairs bank earnings. Housing sales and
listing activity within major Canadian cities remains healthy (excl. Alberta) supporting NBF’s view a major housing
correction will likely not materialize in 2015, barring an unforeseen shock. While it estimates loan-losses amongst
the Big Six banks will increase in f2015 reflecting weakening economic and employment activity in Alberta, NBF
views this impact to be contained and manageable. As a result, it expects Canadian bank valuations will continue
to rise on increased demand from yield focused domestic investors, which will more than offset the short interest
pressure from the U.S.
TD faces intense revenue pressures in both the Canadian and U.S. P&C Banking segments. Net interest margins
are tight in both countries and loan growth has slowed in Canada. Through cost control efforts, TD continues to
manage these headwinds as best it can. But the credit environment, particularly for households in Canada,
threatens to turn less benign in f2016, particularly if low oil prices persist for an extended period of time. NBF
thinks the bank has a good opportunity to offset the P&C banking revenue headwinds that it faces by expanding
its risk appetite for, and capital allocation to, its Wholesale Banking segment. In Q1 f2015, the Wholesale Banking
segment missed
NBF’s net income forecast, but only just. Loan growth remains quite robust while trading revenues came in above
NBF’s estimates. Through better cost control and a bit higher underwriting revenues, it expects Wholesale
Banking will accelerate its earnings growth over the next few years. TD also stands to disproportionately benefit
from the falling Canadian dollar given its sizable U.S. platform. Finally, NBF re-emphasized the bank’s gearing to
a rising interest rate environment in the United States. For these reasons, NBF maintained its Outperform rating
for TD.
VALUATION
NBF’s $60.00 target price is 11.6x its four quarter forward EPS estimate one year from today, a 4% premium to
the average of TD’s rated domestic peers. TD currently trades at 12.1x NBF’s forecasted EPS in f2015, a 7%
premium to peers.
The Week at a Glance
PROGRESSIVE WASTE SOLUTIONS LTD. (BIN) CLOSING PRICE: $28.44 RATING: OUTPERFORM
TARGET PRICE: $32.00
COMPANY PROFILE
Progressive Waste Solutions (BIN) is a vertically integrated in non-hazardous waste management through
collection, recycling and disposal of waste from industrial, commercial, institutional and residential markets. The
company operates primarily in Canada, the U.S. Northeast and the U.S. South. BIN has a strong track record of
both organic growth and growth by acquisition. It is the third largest full-service waste management company in
North America. *All prices are in U.S. dollars
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
NBF rates Progressive Waste Solutions (BIN) Outperform with a $32.00 target price, which implies a potential
total return of ~14%. BIN is still in the early innings of its five-year plan to drive growth and margins. BIN is
targeting revenue growth of 50% and EBITDA margin expansion by 2.5-3.0% over the next five years. About
2/3rd of growth could come from acquisitions. With about 60% of the $63 bln market held by small and regional
players, it is ripe for M&A and BIN can be a consolidator – it has a size advantage, but is not big enough to draw
anti-competition concerns. If BIN is unable to acquire assets for the right price, it would buy back stock to drive
shareholder returns. BIN also has a new management team as about 12 of the 16 senior managers have
assumed their positions in the last 24 months. With an experienced team in place, BIN can execute on its growth
plan and efficiently integrate the pieces that it has acquired over the last few years. Compensation is now based
75% on EBIT and FCF measures, which should align interests with shareholders.
BIN continues to expect a strong 2H15 and with the release of its Q1 results reiterated its 2015 outlook for
revenue and free cash flow growth, on a constant currency basis, and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of
approximately 100-150 basis points for the year. BIN forecasts 2015 revenues of $2,015-$2,035 mln; adj. EBITDA
of $545-$565 mln; and FCF of $200-$215 mln. Management said the company is starting to see tangible results
from investments in its operational improvement plan as operating costs are starting to decline in the markets
where it first introduced automated and compressed natural gas vehicles. BIN expects to realize accelerated
gains in adjusted EBITDA and FCF as capex slows in the 2H15 with the roll-out of these trucks. BIN also
identified further opportunities to reorganize and optimize its regional management structure, which it expects to
result in a restructuring cost of $3.5 to $4.5 million, largely in the second quarter of 2015, and an annualized cost
reduction of $3.0 to $3.5 million. This will also lead to a reporting structure change to North/East/West.
With continued strong indicators in the U.S., combined with modestly optimistic tone from BIN and its peers, NBF
thinks BIN should see increasing macro level growth support. Efficiency gains (both Opex and SG&A), a
contribution from two new assets in Texas and continued ramp of revenue from the Lachenaie biogas plants
could support BIN’s y/y target of 100 -150 bps EBITDA margin increase for 2015E, although NBF models a lower
level. Biogas RIN sales should commence soon and add an estimated $2 mln/Q in EBITDA. Notably the award of
a NYC waste contract could come by year end, but uncertainty or a ‘no-win’ scenario in this RFP process could
trigger a goodwill write-down of ~$90 mln. This could in turn result in strategic moves, including further assets in
the U.S. NE where BIN has had challenges establishing a critical footprint and waste volume.
VALUATION
NBF’s target price is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.8x 2016E, a slight discount to the peer group, which
BIN has lagged. NBF believes BIN should outperform as it executes further with capital and operating efficiency
improvements.
The Week at a Glance
STRATEGIC LIST - WEEKLY UPDATE
(May 18
th
– May 22
th
)
No Changes this Week:
Comments
Consumer Staples (Underweight)
George Weston Limited (WN)
Credit Suisse: WN reported adjusted EPS of $1.19 vs. street expectations of $1.15. EPS beat on higher sales
at Weston Foods as well as overall better gross margin (32.1% vs. Credit Suisse est. 29.4%). Volumes
improved in all segments (Easter timing added ~1.5% to volume). The company announced a dividend
increased of 1.2%. Competitive environment remains evident, but it appears that passing through of pricing is
more of an opportunity of late, given falling gasoline prices. Management maintained guidance of decreasing
EBIT at Weston Foods in 2015 at a magnitude of that greater than in 2014. SG&A expected to increase in 2015
owing to expansion increases as the company is adding new capacity in various plants. The growth affiliated
with this expansion will be slow to build in 2015/2016. Credit Suisse remains constructive on shares of George
Weston owing to the Loblaw turnaround opportunity and potential gains from synergies related to the integration
of Shoppers Drug Mart. Weston Foods remains a relatively steady cash generating entity with little debt. Credit
Suisse maintained its Outperform recommendation and lowered the target price to $114 from $116. Credit
Suisse also slightly reduced its EPS estimates for 2014/2015/2016 to $5.94/$6.74/$7.39 from
$5.94/$6.85/$7.49, driven by an increase in assumed costs at Weston Foods and FX adjustments. The $114
target price is derived by applying a 6x multiple on a blend of 2016 EBITDA, and applying our $70 Loblaw target
price to the portion of Weston’s ownership and the market value of 20mm units of Choice REIT Properties.
Financials (Market Weight)
Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC)
NBF: Coming out of the quarter, NBF found the life insurers in its coverage universe performed largely as
expected in Q1 f2015. Those insurers rated Outperform (MFC and SLF) reported core earnings in line or above
its estimates. Meanwhile, those insurers rated Sector Perform (GWO and IAG) reported core earnings below its
estimates. Looking closer, NBF observed some common themes amongst both groups. MFC and SLF both
affirmed its expectations of dividend increases, which fit within its broader thesis of increasing return of capital to
shareholders at both companies. Moreover, both insurers’ Asian operations reported very strong results which
NBF hopes mark a positive step toward realizing the immense potential inherent to these platforms. NBF rates
MFC Outperform because it sees the company as more geared to an accelerating U.S. economic recovery than
any of its domestic banking or life insurance peers. MFC derives approximately half its earnings from its U.S.
business. As, and if, the U.S. economic recovery regains its momentum from the last half of f2014, NBF expects
MFC’s earnings and valuation will reflect this in a greater degree than those at any other Canadian large-cap,
financial institution. In addition, the company appears to have realized actuarial reserve stability, given the
results of its annual assumption review in Q3 f2014. A greater contribution from the Standard Life acquisition
than MFC currently guides may also drive f2015 and f2016 consensus EPS higher. Finally, NBF bases its
Outperform rating on the view that a new era has begun at MFC – one in which shareholders will see capital
flow back to them (a reversal from the financial crisis years) in the form of increasing dividends, common share
repurchases and accretive acquisitions.
Bank of Montreal (BMO)
NBF: BMO reports Q2 results May 27. In its preview note, NBF highlighted that since the fall of 2014, it has
argued that the fall in the price of oil will change the relative attractiveness of the Big Six banks to investors and
BMO will be a net winner. The bank has proportionally less credit exposure to the commodities sector and
proportionally greater exposure to the U.S. consumer than its domestic peers. Therefore, the market narrative
regarding oil prices, and commodities prices more generally, favours BMO relative to its domestic peers. Yet,
since the beginning of f2015, BMO’s stock price has fallen more than peers, which prompts the question of why
BMO has not outperformed peers. NBF thinks it comes down to execution, and particularly in the United States.
BMO has yet to demonstrate accelerating U.S. earnings growth in any of its business segments south of the
border and this outcome forces the market to regularly re-adjust its expectations. Although BMO has U.S.
platforms in each of its business segments. NBF expects a tug-of-war between those hopeful investors focused
The Week at a Glance
on BMO’s macro story (accelerating U.S. economic growth) and those focused on its micro story (stagnant
earnings growth in the U.S.). NBF maintains a Sector Perform rating and $82.00 target price.
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)
NBF: RY reports Q2 results May 28. NBF has a bearish view on the Canadian household and that viewpoint
makes its outlook on RY more pessimistic because the bank generates over half of its earnings from the
Canadian Banking segment. With the precipitous fall in oil prices, NBF thinks it likely that the market narrative
will take a decidedly cautious view towards the Canadian economy in general and the highly-levered Canadian
household in particular. Fortunately, NBF already incorporates a turn in Canadian household credit in f2016 for
each of the Big Six Canadian banks and it assumes RY still outperforms the industry on loan losses, as it has in
past credit cycles. Nonetheless, because the bank relies more on its Canadian P&C Banking segment than do
most of its peers, RY’s valuation suffers a bit more when it assumes that Canadian household creditworthiness
weakens. Despite the fact that RY’s execution across its business segments remains superior to peers, as
evidenced by the strength of this quarter’s results, the likelihood that the macro market narrative will turn against
RY remains elevated. NBF rates RY Sector Perform with a $82.00 target price.
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
NBF: TD reports Q2 results May 28. According to NBF, TD faces intense revenue pressures in both the
Canadian and U.S. P&C Banking segments. Net interest margins are tight in both countries and loan growth has
slowed in Canada. Through cost control efforts, TD continues to manage these headwinds as best it can. But
the credit environment, particularly for households in Canada, threatens to turn less benign in f2016, particularly
if low oil prices persist for an extended period of time. NBF thinks the bank has a good opportunity to offset the
P&C banking revenue headwinds that it faces by expanding its risk appetite for, and capital allocation to, its
Wholesale Banking segment. In Q1 f2015, the Wholesale Banking segment missed NBF net income forecast,
but only just. Loan growth remains quite robust while trading revenues came in above our estimates. Through
better cost control and a bit higher underwriting revenues, NBF expects Wholesale Banking will accelerate its
earnings growth over the next few years. TD also stands to disproportionately benefit from the falling Canadian
dollar given its sizable U.S. platform. Finally, NBF re-emphasizes the bank’s gearing to a rising interest rate
environment in the United States. For these reasons, NBF maintains its Outperform rating for TD and adjusted it
target price to $60.00 (from $59.00).
The Week at a Glance
NBF STRATEGIC LIST
Ticker
ADDITION
DATE
ADDITION
PRICE
LAST
PRICE
YIELD
(%) BETA
Strategic
List SPTSX NOTES**
Consumer Discretionary EQY_DVD_YLD EQY_BETA 6.0 6.3
Gildan Activewear GIL 21-May-14 $ 29.09 $ 39.23 0.8 1.0 3.0
Thomson Reuters Corp. TRI 27-Feb-14 $ 38.31 $ 49.61 3.3 0.8 3.0
Consumer Staples 3.4 3.6
Empire Company Ltd. EMP'A 1-Apr-15 $ 90.80 $ 90.03 1.2 0.5 1.7
George Weston Ltd. WN 31-J ul-12 $ 59.25 $ 102.20 1.7 0.7 1.7
Energy 25.7 22.3
AltaGas Ltd. ALA 30-Oct-13 $ 38.19 $ 40.43 4.7 0.8 4.3
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX 17-Dec-14 $ 26.82 $ 23.03 5.2 1.2 4.3
Can. Natural Resources Ltd. CNQ 31-J ul-12 $ 27.35 $ 38.53 2.4 1.6 4.3
Crescent Point Energy Corp. CPG 3-Oct-12 $ 43.00 $ 29.95 9.2 1.2 4.3
Enbridge Inc. ENB 21-J an-15 $ 59.87 $ 62.25 3.0 0.8 4.3
Inter Pipeline Ltd. IPL 5-J un-13 $ 23.71 $ 31.15 4.7 0.8 4.3
Financials 35.8 34.6
Bank of Montreal BMO 4-Mar-15 76.27 $ $ 78.07 4.1 0.8 5.1
Cdn. Apartment Properties REITCAR.un 11-Feb-15 $ 26.97 $ 27.48 4.4 0.6 5.1
Element Financial Corp. EFN 3-Sep-14 $ 14.10 $ 18.34 0.0 0.9 5.1 R
H&R REIT HR.un 20-Aug-14 $ 23.36 $ 22.59 6.0 0.7 5.1
Manulife Financial Corp. MFC 26-Mar-14 $ 21.42 $ 22.91 3.0 1.4 5.1
Royal Bank of Canada RY 19-J un-13 $ 60.69 $ 79.97 3.9 0.9 5.1
Toronto Dominion Bank TD 31-J ul-12 $ 39.46 $ 56.15 3.6 0.9 5.1
Health Care - 5.2
Industrials 8.5 8.2
TransForce Inc. TFI 11-Feb-15 $ 29.36 $ 27.36 2.5 0.9 4.3
WestJ et Airlines Ltd. WJ A 22-Oct-14 $ 30.65 $ 26.46 2.1 0.7 4.3
Information Technology 3.2 2.5
CGI Group Inc. GIB.A 22-Aug-12 $ 25.83 $ 53.25 0.0 0.8 1.6
DH Corp. DH 4-Feb-15 $ 38.64 $ 41.48 3.1 0.8 1.6
Materials 11.0 10.6
Agnico Eagle Resources Ltd. AEM 17-Dec-14 $ 27.00 $ 39.55 1.0 1.2 5.5
Lundin Mining Corp. LUN 17-Dec-14 $ 5.35 $ 5.78 0.0 1.9 5.5
Telecom Services 4.3 4.6
Rogers Communications RCI'B 27-Nov-14 $ 45.84 $ 43.37 4.4 0.7 2.2
TELUS Corp T 31-J ul-12 $ 31.31 $ 42.08 4.0 0.7 2.2
Utilities 2.1 2.2
Canadian Utilities Ltd. CU 31-J ul-12 $ 35.00 $ 36.66 3.2 0.7 1.1
Northland Power Inc. NPI
8-May-13
19.43 $ 16.56 $ 6.5 0.7 1.1
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson One (Priced May 22, 2015 at 10:30 am EDT)
**R =Restricted Stocks - Stocks placed under restriction while on The NBF Strategic List will remain on the list, but noted as Restricted in
accordance with compliance requirements
* Individual position weights reflect an adjustment for Health Care. The Health Care weighting has been reallocated to sectors rated "overweight"
with any remaining weight reallocated proportionally to the remaining sectors. As such, the individual position weights will exceed the total sector
weights and may not sum to 1
NBF Strategic List (May 22, 2015)
WEIGHT* (%)
Date Time Release Period Previous Consensus
26-May 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Apr 4.00% -0.50%
26-May 08:30 Durables Ex Transportation Apr -0.20% 0.40%
26-May 08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Apr -0.50% 0.40%
26-May 08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Apr -0.40% --
26-May 09:00 FHFA House Price Index MoM Mar 0.70% 0.70%
26-May 09:00 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 1Q 1.40% --
26-May 09:00 S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA Mar 0.93% 0.90%
26-May 09:00 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY Mar 5.03% 4.60%
26-May 09:00 S&P/CaseShiller 20-City Index NSA Mar 173.67 --
26-May 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI MoM Mar 0.42% --
26-May 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY Mar 4.22% --
26-May 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA Mar 166.8 --
26-May 09:45 Markit US Composite PMI May P 57 --
26-May 09:45 Markit US Services PMI May P 57.4 57
26-May 10:00 New Home Sales Apr 481K 500K
26-May 10:00 New Home Sales MoM Apr -11.40% 4.00%
26-May 10:00 Consumer Confidence Index May 95.2 95
26-May 10:00 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index May -3 0
26-May 10:30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity May -16 -12.5
27-May 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications May 22 -1.50% --
28-May 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims May 23 274K --
28-May 08:30 Continuing Claims May 16 2211K --
28-May 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May 24 42.4 --
28-May 10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM Apr 1.10% 0.70%
28-May 10:00 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Apr 13.40% --
29-May 08:30 GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q S 0.20% -0.80%
29-May 08:30 Personal Consumption 1Q S 1.90% 2.00%
29-May 08:30 GDP Price Index 1Q S -0.10% -0.10%
29-May 08:30 Core PCE QoQ 1Q S 0.90% 0.90%
29-May 09:00 ISM Milwaukee May 48.08 --
29-May 09:45 Chicago Purchasing Manager May 52.3 53
29-May 10:00 U. of Mich. Sentiment May F 88.6 90
29-May 10:00 U. of Mich. Current Conditions May F 99.8 --
29-May 10:00 U. of Mich. Expectations May F 81.5 --
29-May 10:00 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation May F 2.90% --
29-May 10:00 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation May F 2.80% --
Date Time Release Period Previous Consensus
25-May 10:00 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence May 22 56.3 --
27-May 10:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision May 27 0.75% 0.75%
28-May 08:30 Current Account Balance 1Q -$13.9B --
28-May 08:30 Industrial Product Price MoM Apr 0.30% --
28-May 08:30 Raw Materials Price Index MoM Apr -0.90% --
29-May 08:30 GDP MoM Mar 0.00% --
29-May 08:30 GDP YoY Mar 2.10% --
29-May 08:30 Quarterly GDP Annualized 1Q 2.40% --
U.S. Indicators
Canadian Indicators
The Week at a Glance
WEEK AHEAD
THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
(May 25
th
– May 29
th
)
Source : Bloomberg
U.S. Markets are closed Monday May 25th for Memorial Day
The Week at a Glance
S&P/TSX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR
Monday May 25
th
, 2015
None
Tuesday May 26
th
, 2015
Wednesday May 27
th
, 2015
Thursday May 28
th
, 2015
Friday May 29
th
, 2015
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
*Companies of the S&P/TSX index expected to report. Stocks from the Strategic List are in Bold.
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
CAE Inc CAE 0.234
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
Bank of Montreal BMO 1.66
National Bank of Canada NA 1.113
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM 2.226
Descartes Systems Group Inc/The DSG 0.127
Royal Bank of Canada RY 1.581
Toronto-Dominion Bank/The TD 1.101
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
Bank of Nova Scotia/The BNS 1.39
The Week at a Glance
S&P500 INDEX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR
Monday May 25
th
, 2015
None
Tuesday May 26
th
, 2015
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
AutoZone Inc AZO 9.512
Wednesday May 27
th
, 2015
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
Costco Wholesale Corp COST 1.159
Michael Kors Holdings Ltd KORS 0.913
Tiffany & Co TIF 0.694
Thursday May 28
th
, 2015
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
Avago Technologies Ltd AVGO 2.005
GameStop Corp GME 0.597
Friday May 29
th
, 2015
None
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
* Companies of the S&P500 index expected to report. Stocks from the Credit Suisse U.S. Focus List are in Bold.
doc_342682240.pdf
National Bank Financial The Week At A Glance
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Change Week
% Change
Week
% Change
YTD
%Change 1
Year
Trailing
P/E
-41.44 -0.23% 2.29% 10.20% 15.8
4.03 0.19% 3.30% 12.38% 18.8
39.66 0.79% 7.43% 22.47% 30.4
66.77 0.44% 3.71% 3.21% 21.7
Dow J ones Euro Stoxx 50 3,679.06 105.99 2.97% 16.93% 15.42% 21.1
FTSE 100 (UK) 7,031.72 71.23 1.02% 7.09% 3.10% 22.2
DAX (Germany) 11,815.01 367.98 3.21% 20.49% 21.54% 19.1
Nikkei 225 (J apan) 20,264.41 531.49 2.69% 16.12% 41.34% 22.9
Hang Seng 27,992.83 170.55 0.61% 18.59% 21.95% 11.9
MSCI World 1,810.84 3.78 0.21% 5.92% 7.00% 19.0
MSCI EAFE -1.08 -0.06% 9.78% 0.71% 18.5
Change Week
% Change
Week
% Change
YTD
%Change 1
Year
Trailing
P/E
23.32 1.17% 7.11% 26.96% 23.4
-39.95 -1.04% 1.20% 38.05% 31.0
7.42 0.28% 0.31% -18.78% 45.4
13.34 0.58% 0.69% 5.74% 13.0
224.55 7.23% 64.43% 94.13% 80.4
-16.54 -0.71% -4.59% 8.67% 21.0
-1.61 -0.76% 9.06% 41.14% 33.9
-29.62 -1.37% 7.55% -5.21% 56.1
8.09 0.64% -0.24% 2.66% 16.3
-31.08 -1.57% -0.44% 2.93% 40.6
Change Week
% Change
Week
% Change
YTD
%Change 1
Year
NBF
2015E
-0.92 -1.54% 10.32% -43.56% $56.50
-0.10 -3.28% 0.97% -33.08% $2.70
-17.70 -1.45% 1.81% -6.77% $1,250.00
CRB Index -5.30 -2.29% -1.65% -26.48% NA
Curr. Net
Change
% Change
Week
% Change
YTD
%Change 1
Year
NBF 4Q
2015E
-0.0181 -2.17% -5.37% -11.32% 0.79
-0.0419 -3.66% -8.81% -19.21% 1.05
-0.0239 -1.52% -0.57% -8.19% 1.45
-0.0001 -1.77% -1.45% -16.23% 0.0080645
Oil-WTI futures (US$/Barrels)
S&P TSX Consumer Discretionary
S&P/TSX Composite
S&P TSX Info Tech.
S&P TSX SECTORS
S&P TSX Industrials
5,087.96
S&P TSX Health Care
S&P TSX Energy
3,811
Nasdaq Composite
S&P TSX Consumer Staples
S&P TSX Financials
2,015
Last price
2,310
Last price
S&P 500
18,231.12
2,126.76
INDEX
Dow J ones Industrial
226.16
$2.92
$1,206.36
2,302
2,128
$58.77
1,273
Last price
211
1,955
Yen
Pound
Last price
1.1032
0.0082
1.5488
Euro
0.8143
CURRENCIES in US$
Cdn$
15,174.89
2,698
Gold Spot (US$/OZ)
Natural gas futures (US$/mcf)
S&P TSX Materials
1,948.41
S&P TSX Telecom Services
S&P TSX Utilities
3,331
COMMODITIES
May 22
nd
, 2015
P Pr ri i v va at t e e W We ea al l t t h h M Ma an na ag ge em me en nt t
R Re es se ea ar r c ch h S Se er rv vi i c ce es s
Contact your Investment
Advisor for more information
regarding this document.
THE WEEK IN NUMBERS
(May 18
th
– May 22
nd
)
For NBF Disclosures, please visit URL: http://www.nbcn.ca/contactus/disclosures.html
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research Approximate time: 11:30 am
FIXED INCOME
NUMBERS
THE WEEK IN NUMBERS
(May 18
th
– May 22
nd
)
Last yield
Change Week
in bps
Change YTD
in bps
Change One
Year in bps
0.75% 0.0 -25 -25
0.63% -1.1 -28 -28
0.68% 3.6 -33 -37
1.06% 6.1 -27 -51
1.78% 6.8 -1 -52
2.36% 2.8 3 -48
5 Yr Canada Government
10 Yr Canada Government
CANADIAN YIELD CURVE
3 Month T-Bill
CDA Overnight
2 Yr Canada Government
30 Yr Canada Government
Change Week
Change
Y-T-D
0.39% 1.89%
0.07% 1.51%
0.30% 2.36%
0.84% 2.12%
FTSE Mid Term Bond Index
FTSE Universe Bond Index
FTSE Short Term Bond Index
FTSE Long Term Bond Index
CANADIAN BOND - TOTAL
RETURN
Last yield
Change Week
in bps
Change YTD
in bps
Change One
Year in bps
0.25% 0.0 0 0
0.02% 0.5 -2 -2
0.61% 7.8 -5 28
1.57% 10.8 -8 5
2.22% 8.1 5 -31
3.00% 7.1 25 -41
3 Month T-Bill
2 Yr US Bonds
30 Yr US Bonds
5 Yr US Bonds
10 Yr US Bonds
US YIELD CURVE
U.S. FED Funds
CURRENT YIELD CURVE
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Term
y
i
e
l
d
CANADA
U.S
Last spread in
basis points (bp)
Change Week
in bps
Change YTD
in bps
Change One
Year in bps
35 -0.3 2 3
38 -0.6 -10 -29
53 1.1 -4 2
133 -2.9 -13 12
84 -3.1 -6 8
CAD Housing Trust AAA
Canada Corp BBB
Canada Corp Bank AA
Province Quebec
Province Ontario
CANADIAN 5YR SPREADS
Last spread in
basis points (bp)
Change Week
in bps
Change YTD
in bps
Change One
Year in bps
66 1.1 -23 -25
75 1.8 -17 -10
174 -3.2 -8 26
US Finance AA 83 1.5 6 9
US Corp BBB 167 -2.4 0 35
CDN & US 10 YR SPREADS
Province Quebec
Province Ontario
Canada Corp BBB
Sources: Bloomberg & PC Bonds
The Week at a Glance
«
NBF Economic
& Strategy
Group
WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH - WEEK IN REVIEW
CANADA – The consumer pri ce index fell 0.1% in April, allowing the year-on-year inflation
rate to drop to 0.8%, the lowest since November 2013. In seasonally adjusted terms, CPI also fell
0.1%, as declines for transportation, clothing/footwear, shelter and recreation/education more than
offset gains in the other four broad categories. The core CPI, which excludes eight of the most
volatile items, was up 0.1%, but that couldn’t prevent a one-tick drop in the year-on-year core
inflation rate to 2.3% (from 2.4%). In seasonally-adjusted terms, core CPI was flat. Assuming
seasonal patterns hold in May and J une, CPI is on track to grow in Q2 by 0.7% annualized for the
headline and 2.2% annualized for the core, close to the Bank of Canada’s April’s Monetary Policy
Report estimates of 0.8% for the headline and 2.1% for the core. So, don’t expect much change
from the central bank’s policy stance for now.
Retail sales rose 0.7% in March, after a downwardly revised 1.5% increase in the prior month.
Sales rose in 7 of the 11 subsectors, including a 1.5% increase for autos/parts dealers. Excluding
autos, sales rose 0.5%. There were increases observed for sellers of furniture, building materials,
food/beverage, health/personal care products, clothing, and miscellaneous items which dwarfed
decreases for sellers of electronics, gasoline, sporting goods, and general merchandise. In real
terms, retail sales rose just 0.1%. Overall, the Canadian retail results were much better than
expected even considering the downward revision to the prior month. The retail volume increase
adds to solid performances reported earlier from factories and the wholesale sector, suggesting
Canada’s GDP growth accelerated in March, i.e. a good handoff to Q2. The Q1 picture, however, is
less rosy with real retail sales contracting at an annualized pace of 1.6%, the worst since 2012.
Wholesale sal es rose 0.8% in March, close to consensus expectations. There were increases in
five of the 7 subsectors, including +0.7% for autos/parts, +2.8% for building materials, +1.2% for
food/beverage, and +1.5% for personal/household goods. Inventories were up 1%. In real terms,
wholesale sales rose 1% in March, although not preventing a 7.4% annualized contraction in Q1
because of the poor start to the year.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz didn’t signal any change in the central bank’s policy
stance in a speech in Charlottetown this week. He again said that the impact of the oil shock is
proving to be faster than expected but not larger. But the impact on the labour market isn’t as front-
loaded based on his comments that “we probably still haven’t seen the full impact of the oil price
shock reflected in the employment data”. Output was about flat in the first quarter, but the BoC
expects growth will rebound, particularly in the second half of the year and put Canada back on
track to reach full capacity around the end of 2016. While core inflation remains above the central
bank’s 2% target, Governor Poloz said that was due to temporary factors and pegged the
“underlying trend” between 1.6% and 1.8%. Following the speech, the Governor gave a press
conference in which he admitted the central bank couldn’t be sure about the overall impact of the
oil shock on the economy. With regards to the US, the Governor said it’s too early to say how
strong the economy will be in Q2. He still sounded confident that the Canadian economy will
benefit from the US moving from a consumer led recovery to investment led growth.
UNITED STATES – The consumer price index rose just 0.1% in April, causing the annual
inflation rate to drop to -0.2% (from -0.1% in the prior month). The 1.3% decrease in energy prices
and flat food prices weighed on the CPI. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% thanks to
gains for medical care, recreation, and apparel among others, which allowed the year-on-year core
inflation rate to stay unchanged at 1.8%. All told, prices generally remain mild. We expect inflation
to remain soft as the strong US dollar continues to cap import prices and offset the natural lift to
prices brought by a strengthening economy. Based only on inflation considerations, the Fed is
under no pressure to hike interest rates.
Housing starts soared 20.2% to 1135K in April, from an upwardly revised 944K in the prior month.
There were big increases for both single-family homes (+16.7%) and multis (+27.2%). Building
permit applications also jumped 10.1% to 1143K in April. The increase was largely due to multis
(+20.5%) although permits for single family homes were also up 3.7%.
The Week at a Glance
«
NBF Economic
& Strategy
Group
Existing home sales fell 3.3% to 5.04 million units in April after an upwardly revised print of 5.21
million units in the prior month. The declines were entirely due to single family units (-3.7%),
while sales of multis were flat. The months supply of homes at current sales rate jumped to 5.3,
the highest since September last year. But the median resale price rose to $219,400 and is now
8.9% higher than year-ago levels (+10% for singles and +0.4% for multis). About 24% of April
sales were made to cash buyers while the share of distressed sales in total sales was unchanged
at 10%.
The leading indicator rose a consensus-topping 0.7% in April, the largest monthly increase
since J uly last year. The biggest contributors to the increase were building permits and interest
rate spreads.
The Philadelphi a Fed index of manufacturing activity fell to 6.7 in May (from 7.5 in the prior
month). The employment subindex fell a bit but remained in expansion territory. The shipments
and new orders sub-index rose and are both in expansion mode.
Fed minutes highlighted discussions among FOMC participants about whether the weakness in
Q1 reflected temporary factors or a more long-lasting loss of momentum. The general view was
that Q1 was a temporary setback although a number of participants suggested that the impact of
the dollar on net exports and the decline in oil prices on investments spending might be larger
and longer-lasting than previously anticipated. A few participants thought downside risk to the
economy had increased since March. There were discussions about financial stability, and some
participants were concerned that term premiums may increase sharply once the FOMC begins
policy normalization. They thought that the combination of high-frequency traders, decreased
inventories of bonds held by dealers, and elevated assets of bond funds, was a recipe for greater
bond market volatility than in the past. As for the timing of rate lift-off, many participants thought it
was unlikely that the data available in J une would provide sufficient confirmation that conditions
for raising the fed funds rate had been satisfied. In other words, rate hikes are likely to be
delayed to the second half of the year.
WORLD – In J apan, GDP expanded for the second straight quarter in Q1 with a +2.4%
annualized print, the biggest jump since 2013. Domestic demand, helped by a solid performance
from consumers and to a lesser extent housing and investment, more than offset the drag from
trade.
The Week at a Glance
«
NBF Economic
& Strategy
Group
WORLD WATCH
World: Trade volumes sank in Q1
Global economic activity continues to be powered by the services sector as manufacturing woes
persist. The latter is largely due to trade volumes which took a dive in the first quarter of 2015.
The near-6% annualized drop suggested by latest CPB data is the worst since 2009 when the
world economy was in recession. So what exactly happened in Q1? Put simply, there were two
major factors restraining factories in the first quarter, one temporary and one more structural in
nature. Atypically bad weather and port strikes on the US west coast hurt global trade flows, and
hence manufacturing, and a rebound can therefore be expected as those temporary factors
dissipate. Less encouraging, however, is the deceleration in China’s GDP growth which is more
structural in nature. Emerging economies with supply chain linkages to the world’s second largest
economy are not surprisingly also seeing a moderation in growth.
CANADA WATCH
Canada: Are EI claims near a peak?
Data released yesterday showed the number of Canadians receiving employment insurance (EI)
benefits rising for the fourth consecutive month, the worst sequence since the 2008-2009
recession. As bad as this might sound, things must be kept in perspective. The cumulative
increase in the number of EI beneficiaries since last December is only 22,000 (roughly 0.1% of
the labour force). As the Hot Chart shows, this number pales in comparison to worst of the
deterioration observed during the last recession (as high as 220,000). The other thing to keep in
mind is that the bulk of the recent increase in beneficiaries was concentrated in Alberta. This is
not a country-wide deterioration. So where do we go from here? In light of the recent increase in
oil prices, there is scope for more optimism on Canadian labour markets. The number of new EI
claims actually edged down in March at the national level with Alberta showing some stabilization.
The Week at a Glance
The Week at a Glance
IN THE NEWS
U.S. and Canadian News
Monday May 18
th
, 2015
- Confidence Among U.S. Homebuilders
Unexpectedl y Fell in May
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo
sentiment gauge dropped to 54 this month from 56 in
April. Readings greater than 50 mean more respondents
report good market conditions. The median forecast
called for an increase to 57.
- Ascena Agrees to Buy Ann Taylor Owner for $2.16
Billion
Ascena Retail Group Inc. agreed to buy Ann Inc. for
about $2.16 billion, unifying the Ann Taylor and Lane
Bryant brands in a bid to attract more working women.
- Brookfield Agrees to Buy Graphite Maker for $546
Million
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. agreed to acquire
GrafTech International Ltd., a U.S. maker of graphite
used in electrodes.
- Billionaire Icahn Says Apple's Shares Are Worth
$240
Apple Inc., which already announced it was boosting its
capital-return program by $70 billion, should increase its
stock buyback, Carl Icahn wrote in a letter to the
company.
Tuesday May 19
th
, 2015
- Housing Starts in U.S. Surge to Seven-Year High
Housing starts jumped 20.2 percent to a 1.14 million
annualized rate, the most since November 2007, from a
944,000 pace in March. The median forecast of
economists was 1.02 million. More permits, a proxy for
future construction, were issued than at any time since
J une 2008.
- Canada faces looming housing crisis as one in five
renters forced to pay 50% of income on home
The country has a looming housing problem that is
going to require action from all levels of government,
according to a new report from the Federation of
Canadian Municipalities. The study says the long,
steady decline in federal subsidies for social housing
has left provinces, territories and municipalities
struggling against market forces that are making it
increasingly difficult for low and modest-income renters.
- Stephen Poloz warns impact of oil shock on
economy may take years to work itself out
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says the
country’s recovery from the recession “has been a long
voyage, and it isn’t over yet,” but there are signs the
economy will gradually recover — even with the latest
challenge of an oil-price collapse.
Wednesday May 20
th
, 2015
- Many Fed Officials Said June Liftoff Unlikel y,
Minutes Show
Federal Reserve officials last month didn’t expect to
raise rates at their next meeting in J une even as they
concluded that a first-quarter economic slowdown was
unlikely to persist, minutes of the meeting show.
- Canada wholesale trade rises in March
The value of Canadian wholesale trade in March rebounded
after two consecutive declines, rising 0.8 percent from
February to $53.94 billion. Analysts had expected a 0.9
percent increase in March. In volume terms, wholesale sales
increased by 1.0 percent.
- B.C. signs development deal with Petronas LNG venture
The B.C. government has signed a project development
agreement with the Pacific NorthWest LNG joint venture led
by Malaysia’s Petronas.
- BCE, Larry Tanenbaum Agree to Buy Argonauts
Football Team
BCE Inc and investor Larry Tanenbaum agreed to buy the
Toronto Argonauts professional football team from sports
entrepreneur David Braley.
Thursday May 21
st
, 2015
- Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall Over Past Month to 15-Year
Low
The four-week average for jobless claims decreased to
266,250 in the period ended May 16 from 271,750. The
figure corresponds to the week the government surveys
employers to calculate the monthly payroll data. On a
weekly basis, applications rose by 10,000 to 274,000.
- Sales of Previousl y Owned U.S. Homes Unexpectedl y
Decline
Contract closings dropped 3.3 percent to a 5.04 million
annualized rate after a 5.21 million pace that was the
strongest in almost two years. The median forecast of
economists called for a rise to 5.23 million. Prices jumped as
the number of houses for sales declined from the same time
last year.
- CVS to Buy Omnicare in $12.7 Billion Pharmacy
Expansion Deal
CVS Health Corp. agreed to acquire nursing-home
pharmacy Omnicare Inc. in a deal valued at $12.7 billion,
adding services for the elderly to bolster its position as the
biggest U.S. retailer of prescription drugs.
- Manulife planning IPO of U.S assets in Singapore
Manulife Financial Corp. is seeking to list some of its U.S.
property assets in Singapore in the second half of the year
in an initial public offering worth $450 million US.
Friday May 22
nd
, 2015
- Core U.S. Consumer Prices Rose in April by Most in
Two Years
The core consumer-price index climbed 0.3 percent, the
biggest gain since J anuary 2013, reflecting broad-based
increases. The median forecast of economists called for a
0.2 percent advance. Prices including food and fuel rose 0.1
percent.
- Canada’s April inflation slowest since 2013 on cheaper
energy
The University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment
dropped to 88.6, the lowest since October, from 95.9 in
April. The 7.3 point decrease was the largest since
December 2012. The outcome was lower than the lowest
estimate of economists.
Click on title to view the full story.
The Week at a Glance
IN THE NEWS
International News
Monday May 18
th
, 2015
- Greek Endgame Nears for Tsipras as Collateral
Evaporates
Greek banks are running short on the collateral they
need to stay alive, a crisis that could help force Prime
Minister Alexis Tsipras’s hand after weeks of
brinkmanship with creditors.
- BOE Holds Rate at 0.5% as Carney Prepares to
Signal Outlook
The Bank of England governor has an opportunity this
week to address bets that he’ll keep interest rates
unchanged until mid-2016. The bank maintained the
benchmark at 0.5 percent on Monday.
- China Adds Stimulus With Third Interest-Rate Cut in
6 Months
The People’s Bank of China reduced the one-year
lending rate 0.25 percentage point to 5.1 percent and
cut the one-year deposit rate by the same amount to
2.25 percent. In another step to free up interest rates,
the central bank will also raise the limit on what banks
can pay savers.
Tuesday May 19
th
, 2015
- Merkel Gives Greece 12 Days to Reach Financing
Accord
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French
President Francois Hollande gave Greece until the end
of May to reach a deal on its aid program, urging faster
talks to end the standoff over the country’s financing.
- Ukraine Piles Pressure on Creditors Payment-Delay
Powers
Ukraine raised the pressure on creditors to accept a
writedown on their holdings as the government secured
permission to halt debt payments.
- Coeure Says ECB Will Moderatel y Frontload QE in
May, June
The European Central Bank intends to increase its
purchases of euro-area assets in May and J une ahead
of an expected low-liquidity period in the summer,
Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said.
- European Car Sales Rise a 20th Month
Registrations increased 6.9 percent from a year earlier
to 1.21 million vehicles. Four-month sales jumped 8.1
percent to 4.85 million cars. The gains extend the auto
market’s longest growth streak since the ACEA began
compiling figures in 1990 and maintain a recovery from a
two-decade low reached in 2013.
- China stocks jump the most in four months on
reform plan
Chinese stocks posted their biggest advance in nearly
four months on Tuesday, after the government unveiled
guidelines to reform its economic system in 2015, which
includes further opening up capital markets.
Wednesday May 20
th
, 2015
- ECB Gives Smallest Aid Increase Yet for Greek Banks
as Talks Due
The European Central Bank approved the smallest rise in
emergency cash for Greek lenders since tensions re-
emerged in February, in a sign that deposit outflows may be
easing as political talks on the nation’s finances improve.
- Altice to Acquire Suddenlink Stake in $9.1 Billion U.S.
Deal
Altice SA agreed to acquire control of Suddenlink
Communications in a $9.1 billion transaction that marks
French-Israeli billionaire Patrick Drahi’s first foray in the U.S.
cable market.
- Japan’s Economy Grows
J apan’s gross domestic product expanded an annualized
2.4% during the first quarter, higher than a 1.5% gain
forecast by economists.
Thursday May 21
st
, 2015
- Hollande Says Three-Way Tsipras Talks to Pave Way for
Greek Deal
French President Francois Hollande opened the prospect of
striking a political deal with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras
that unlocks bailout aid for Greece within days.
- Euro-Area Recovery Stutters as China’s Factory
Weakness Persists
Markit Economics said its composite index of services and
manufacturing in the euro zone slipped to 53.4 from 53.9 in
April.It’s less than the 53.9 forecast by economists.
- Chinese Factory Gauge Remains Sluggish on Economic
Slowdown
The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC
Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was at 49.1 for May,
missing the median estimate of 49.3.
Friday May 22
nd
, 2015
- Merkel, Hollande Tell Greece to Take Route A to
Agreement
Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande told Greece there’s no
alternative to dealing with creditors as it seeks to unlock
bailout funds, after another round of negotiations failed to
break the impasse over aid.
- Draghi Urges Reforms as ECB Trapped in
Unconventional Policy
The ECB President said euro-area countries must
accelerate overhauls of their economies not only to raise
growth and bring down unemployment, but also to allow
monetary policy makers to deliver faster inflation.
- Brazil Boosts Taxes on Banks Before Rolling Out
Budget Cuts
Banks, brokerages and credit-card processors among
others will pay a 20 percent tax on profit, up from 15
percent. The measure will boost tax collection by about 5
billion reais.
- ABN Amro Sale Goes Ahead in IPO Valuing Bank at
$16.6 Billion
The Dutch government is proceeding with plans to sell
shares of ABN Amro Group NV to the public as soon as this
year, helping to recoup the state bailout seven years after
rescuing the lender.
Click on title to view the full story.
The Week at a Glance
S&P/TSX WEEKLY PERFORMERS
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Magna Internati onal Inc (MG)
ShawCor Ltd (SCL)
RMP Energy Inc (RMP)
B2Gol d Corp (BTO)
Interfor Corp. (IFP)
Val eant Pharmaceuti cal s Internati onal Inc. …
Crew Energy Inc (CR)
Canfor Corp (CFP)
Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF)
ATS Automati on Tool i ng Systems Inc. (ATA)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5.57%
5.61%
6.07%
6.40%
7.84%
8.01%
8.93%
9.22%
10.89%
12.91%
S&P/TSX weekly best performers
-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
Fi rst Quantum Mi neral s Ltd (FM)
Open Text Corp (OTC)
Cameco Corp (CCO)
Sherri tt Internati onal Corp (S)
Canexus Corp (CUS)
Capstone Mi ni ng Corp (CS)
Bombardi er Inc (BBD.b)
Maj or Dri l l i ng Group Internati onal (MDI)
HudBay Mi neral s Inc (HBM)
Preti um Resources Inc (PVG)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-11.70%
-10.70%
-9.52%
-8.06%
-7.49%
-7.38%
-7.09%
-6.62%
-6.45%
-6.36%
S&P/TSX weekly worst performers
The performance is calculated from the close of Friday’s previous week until Friday 11:30 a.m. of this week.
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
The Week at a Glance
Company Symbol Current Rating Previous Rating
Current
Target
Previous
Target
Closing
Price
AirBoss of America Corp. BOS Outperform Outperform C$18.50 C$17.00 C$16.91
ATS Automation Tooling Systems Inc. ATA Outperform Outperform C$17.00 C$16.00 C$14.50
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM Sector Perform Sector Perform C$101.00 C$100.00 C$95.66
Crombie REIT CRR.un Outperform Outperform C$15.00 C$15.25 C$12.80
DataWind Inc. DW Sector Perform C$4.00 $0.00 C$3.62
DeeThree Exploration Ltd. DTX Not Rated Outperform C$8.50 $0.00
Element Financial Corp. EFN Restricted Restricted C$17.73
IBI Group Inc. IBG Sector Perform Sector Perform C$2.50 C$2.00 C$2.24
Medical Facilities Corporation DR Sector Perform Sector Perform C$18.00 C$17.00 C$17.35
Midas Gold Corp. MAX Outperform Restricted C$0.90 Restricted C$0.42
Milestone Apartments REIT MST.UN Restricted Restricted C$13.52
New Flyer Industries Inc. NFI Outperform Outperform C$16.50 C$15.50 C$15.30
Open Text OTC Sector Perform Sector Perform US$55.00 US$60.00 C$51.80
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. OR Outperform Sector Perform C$20.00 C$18.00 C$17.85
Slate Office REIT SOT.UN Restricted Restricted C$7.73
Storm Resources Ltd. SRX Restricted Restricted C$4.75
Temple Hotels Inc. TPH Sector Perform Sector Perform C$2.50 C$2.00 C$2.39
Toronto-Dominion Bank TD Outperform Outperform C$60.00 C$59.00 C$56.13
Vicwest Inc. VIC Tender C$12.70 C$12.69
WesternOne Equity WEQ Sector Perform Sector Perform C$1.50 C$2.00 C$1.13
WPT Industrial REIT WIR.U Outperform Outperform US$14.50 US$12.50 US$12.60
NBF RATINGS & TARGET PRICE CHANGES
The Week at a Glance
NBF ACTION IDEAS
TORONTO DOMINION BANK (TD) CLOSING PRICE: $56.13 RATING: OUTPERFORM TARGET PRICE:
$60.00
COMPANY PROFILE
TD Bank is the second largest Canadian bank in terms of assets. TD operates along four business lines.
Canadian and U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking provide a wide range of personal banking services in their
respective jurisdictions. Wealth Management offers self-directed brokerage services and full service brokerage to
individual investors, as well as investment management services for institutional and high net worth individuals.
The Wholesale Bank provides capital market products and services.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
NBF reiterated its Outperform rating on Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) and raised its price target to $60.00 from
$59.00 in its Q2 f2015 earnings preview. TD is NBF’s top pick amongst the Big Six Canadian banks and is the
only one rated Outperform. TD reports 2Q results on Thursday, May 28
th
before the market open. NBF is
forecasting core cash EPS (excl. IFRS dilution) of $1.11 (-1.0% q/q and +1.9% y/y) and net income to common
EPS (IFRS) of $1.08 (-0.8% q/q and +4.0% y/y)
NBF starts from the premise that housing is the principal form of collateral underpinning the quality of household
credit in Canada. While Canadian household debt to disposable income remains at near record highs, the
household debt service ratio also sits at a record low and NBF concludes that while Canadian households are not
stressed at present, high levels of debt do leave them vulnerable to exogenous shocks. As long as home prices
continue to rise (and interest rates remain low), this should sustain borrowing and buoy consumer sentiment. In
other words, unless and until house prices deteriorate materially across \the country, we will not see a sudden
burst of Canadian household loan losses at the Big Six banks that impairs bank earnings. Housing sales and
listing activity within major Canadian cities remains healthy (excl. Alberta) supporting NBF’s view a major housing
correction will likely not materialize in 2015, barring an unforeseen shock. While it estimates loan-losses amongst
the Big Six banks will increase in f2015 reflecting weakening economic and employment activity in Alberta, NBF
views this impact to be contained and manageable. As a result, it expects Canadian bank valuations will continue
to rise on increased demand from yield focused domestic investors, which will more than offset the short interest
pressure from the U.S.
TD faces intense revenue pressures in both the Canadian and U.S. P&C Banking segments. Net interest margins
are tight in both countries and loan growth has slowed in Canada. Through cost control efforts, TD continues to
manage these headwinds as best it can. But the credit environment, particularly for households in Canada,
threatens to turn less benign in f2016, particularly if low oil prices persist for an extended period of time. NBF
thinks the bank has a good opportunity to offset the P&C banking revenue headwinds that it faces by expanding
its risk appetite for, and capital allocation to, its Wholesale Banking segment. In Q1 f2015, the Wholesale Banking
segment missed
NBF’s net income forecast, but only just. Loan growth remains quite robust while trading revenues came in above
NBF’s estimates. Through better cost control and a bit higher underwriting revenues, it expects Wholesale
Banking will accelerate its earnings growth over the next few years. TD also stands to disproportionately benefit
from the falling Canadian dollar given its sizable U.S. platform. Finally, NBF re-emphasized the bank’s gearing to
a rising interest rate environment in the United States. For these reasons, NBF maintained its Outperform rating
for TD.
VALUATION
NBF’s $60.00 target price is 11.6x its four quarter forward EPS estimate one year from today, a 4% premium to
the average of TD’s rated domestic peers. TD currently trades at 12.1x NBF’s forecasted EPS in f2015, a 7%
premium to peers.
The Week at a Glance
PROGRESSIVE WASTE SOLUTIONS LTD. (BIN) CLOSING PRICE: $28.44 RATING: OUTPERFORM
TARGET PRICE: $32.00
COMPANY PROFILE
Progressive Waste Solutions (BIN) is a vertically integrated in non-hazardous waste management through
collection, recycling and disposal of waste from industrial, commercial, institutional and residential markets. The
company operates primarily in Canada, the U.S. Northeast and the U.S. South. BIN has a strong track record of
both organic growth and growth by acquisition. It is the third largest full-service waste management company in
North America. *All prices are in U.S. dollars
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
NBF rates Progressive Waste Solutions (BIN) Outperform with a $32.00 target price, which implies a potential
total return of ~14%. BIN is still in the early innings of its five-year plan to drive growth and margins. BIN is
targeting revenue growth of 50% and EBITDA margin expansion by 2.5-3.0% over the next five years. About
2/3rd of growth could come from acquisitions. With about 60% of the $63 bln market held by small and regional
players, it is ripe for M&A and BIN can be a consolidator – it has a size advantage, but is not big enough to draw
anti-competition concerns. If BIN is unable to acquire assets for the right price, it would buy back stock to drive
shareholder returns. BIN also has a new management team as about 12 of the 16 senior managers have
assumed their positions in the last 24 months. With an experienced team in place, BIN can execute on its growth
plan and efficiently integrate the pieces that it has acquired over the last few years. Compensation is now based
75% on EBIT and FCF measures, which should align interests with shareholders.
BIN continues to expect a strong 2H15 and with the release of its Q1 results reiterated its 2015 outlook for
revenue and free cash flow growth, on a constant currency basis, and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of
approximately 100-150 basis points for the year. BIN forecasts 2015 revenues of $2,015-$2,035 mln; adj. EBITDA
of $545-$565 mln; and FCF of $200-$215 mln. Management said the company is starting to see tangible results
from investments in its operational improvement plan as operating costs are starting to decline in the markets
where it first introduced automated and compressed natural gas vehicles. BIN expects to realize accelerated
gains in adjusted EBITDA and FCF as capex slows in the 2H15 with the roll-out of these trucks. BIN also
identified further opportunities to reorganize and optimize its regional management structure, which it expects to
result in a restructuring cost of $3.5 to $4.5 million, largely in the second quarter of 2015, and an annualized cost
reduction of $3.0 to $3.5 million. This will also lead to a reporting structure change to North/East/West.
With continued strong indicators in the U.S., combined with modestly optimistic tone from BIN and its peers, NBF
thinks BIN should see increasing macro level growth support. Efficiency gains (both Opex and SG&A), a
contribution from two new assets in Texas and continued ramp of revenue from the Lachenaie biogas plants
could support BIN’s y/y target of 100 -150 bps EBITDA margin increase for 2015E, although NBF models a lower
level. Biogas RIN sales should commence soon and add an estimated $2 mln/Q in EBITDA. Notably the award of
a NYC waste contract could come by year end, but uncertainty or a ‘no-win’ scenario in this RFP process could
trigger a goodwill write-down of ~$90 mln. This could in turn result in strategic moves, including further assets in
the U.S. NE where BIN has had challenges establishing a critical footprint and waste volume.
VALUATION
NBF’s target price is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.8x 2016E, a slight discount to the peer group, which
BIN has lagged. NBF believes BIN should outperform as it executes further with capital and operating efficiency
improvements.
The Week at a Glance
STRATEGIC LIST - WEEKLY UPDATE
(May 18
th
– May 22
th
)
No Changes this Week:
Comments
Consumer Staples (Underweight)
George Weston Limited (WN)
Credit Suisse: WN reported adjusted EPS of $1.19 vs. street expectations of $1.15. EPS beat on higher sales
at Weston Foods as well as overall better gross margin (32.1% vs. Credit Suisse est. 29.4%). Volumes
improved in all segments (Easter timing added ~1.5% to volume). The company announced a dividend
increased of 1.2%. Competitive environment remains evident, but it appears that passing through of pricing is
more of an opportunity of late, given falling gasoline prices. Management maintained guidance of decreasing
EBIT at Weston Foods in 2015 at a magnitude of that greater than in 2014. SG&A expected to increase in 2015
owing to expansion increases as the company is adding new capacity in various plants. The growth affiliated
with this expansion will be slow to build in 2015/2016. Credit Suisse remains constructive on shares of George
Weston owing to the Loblaw turnaround opportunity and potential gains from synergies related to the integration
of Shoppers Drug Mart. Weston Foods remains a relatively steady cash generating entity with little debt. Credit
Suisse maintained its Outperform recommendation and lowered the target price to $114 from $116. Credit
Suisse also slightly reduced its EPS estimates for 2014/2015/2016 to $5.94/$6.74/$7.39 from
$5.94/$6.85/$7.49, driven by an increase in assumed costs at Weston Foods and FX adjustments. The $114
target price is derived by applying a 6x multiple on a blend of 2016 EBITDA, and applying our $70 Loblaw target
price to the portion of Weston’s ownership and the market value of 20mm units of Choice REIT Properties.
Financials (Market Weight)
Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC)
NBF: Coming out of the quarter, NBF found the life insurers in its coverage universe performed largely as
expected in Q1 f2015. Those insurers rated Outperform (MFC and SLF) reported core earnings in line or above
its estimates. Meanwhile, those insurers rated Sector Perform (GWO and IAG) reported core earnings below its
estimates. Looking closer, NBF observed some common themes amongst both groups. MFC and SLF both
affirmed its expectations of dividend increases, which fit within its broader thesis of increasing return of capital to
shareholders at both companies. Moreover, both insurers’ Asian operations reported very strong results which
NBF hopes mark a positive step toward realizing the immense potential inherent to these platforms. NBF rates
MFC Outperform because it sees the company as more geared to an accelerating U.S. economic recovery than
any of its domestic banking or life insurance peers. MFC derives approximately half its earnings from its U.S.
business. As, and if, the U.S. economic recovery regains its momentum from the last half of f2014, NBF expects
MFC’s earnings and valuation will reflect this in a greater degree than those at any other Canadian large-cap,
financial institution. In addition, the company appears to have realized actuarial reserve stability, given the
results of its annual assumption review in Q3 f2014. A greater contribution from the Standard Life acquisition
than MFC currently guides may also drive f2015 and f2016 consensus EPS higher. Finally, NBF bases its
Outperform rating on the view that a new era has begun at MFC – one in which shareholders will see capital
flow back to them (a reversal from the financial crisis years) in the form of increasing dividends, common share
repurchases and accretive acquisitions.
Bank of Montreal (BMO)
NBF: BMO reports Q2 results May 27. In its preview note, NBF highlighted that since the fall of 2014, it has
argued that the fall in the price of oil will change the relative attractiveness of the Big Six banks to investors and
BMO will be a net winner. The bank has proportionally less credit exposure to the commodities sector and
proportionally greater exposure to the U.S. consumer than its domestic peers. Therefore, the market narrative
regarding oil prices, and commodities prices more generally, favours BMO relative to its domestic peers. Yet,
since the beginning of f2015, BMO’s stock price has fallen more than peers, which prompts the question of why
BMO has not outperformed peers. NBF thinks it comes down to execution, and particularly in the United States.
BMO has yet to demonstrate accelerating U.S. earnings growth in any of its business segments south of the
border and this outcome forces the market to regularly re-adjust its expectations. Although BMO has U.S.
platforms in each of its business segments. NBF expects a tug-of-war between those hopeful investors focused
The Week at a Glance
on BMO’s macro story (accelerating U.S. economic growth) and those focused on its micro story (stagnant
earnings growth in the U.S.). NBF maintains a Sector Perform rating and $82.00 target price.
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)
NBF: RY reports Q2 results May 28. NBF has a bearish view on the Canadian household and that viewpoint
makes its outlook on RY more pessimistic because the bank generates over half of its earnings from the
Canadian Banking segment. With the precipitous fall in oil prices, NBF thinks it likely that the market narrative
will take a decidedly cautious view towards the Canadian economy in general and the highly-levered Canadian
household in particular. Fortunately, NBF already incorporates a turn in Canadian household credit in f2016 for
each of the Big Six Canadian banks and it assumes RY still outperforms the industry on loan losses, as it has in
past credit cycles. Nonetheless, because the bank relies more on its Canadian P&C Banking segment than do
most of its peers, RY’s valuation suffers a bit more when it assumes that Canadian household creditworthiness
weakens. Despite the fact that RY’s execution across its business segments remains superior to peers, as
evidenced by the strength of this quarter’s results, the likelihood that the macro market narrative will turn against
RY remains elevated. NBF rates RY Sector Perform with a $82.00 target price.
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
NBF: TD reports Q2 results May 28. According to NBF, TD faces intense revenue pressures in both the
Canadian and U.S. P&C Banking segments. Net interest margins are tight in both countries and loan growth has
slowed in Canada. Through cost control efforts, TD continues to manage these headwinds as best it can. But
the credit environment, particularly for households in Canada, threatens to turn less benign in f2016, particularly
if low oil prices persist for an extended period of time. NBF thinks the bank has a good opportunity to offset the
P&C banking revenue headwinds that it faces by expanding its risk appetite for, and capital allocation to, its
Wholesale Banking segment. In Q1 f2015, the Wholesale Banking segment missed NBF net income forecast,
but only just. Loan growth remains quite robust while trading revenues came in above our estimates. Through
better cost control and a bit higher underwriting revenues, NBF expects Wholesale Banking will accelerate its
earnings growth over the next few years. TD also stands to disproportionately benefit from the falling Canadian
dollar given its sizable U.S. platform. Finally, NBF re-emphasizes the bank’s gearing to a rising interest rate
environment in the United States. For these reasons, NBF maintains its Outperform rating for TD and adjusted it
target price to $60.00 (from $59.00).
The Week at a Glance
NBF STRATEGIC LIST
Ticker
ADDITION
DATE
ADDITION
PRICE
LAST
PRICE
YIELD
(%) BETA
Strategic
List SPTSX NOTES**
Consumer Discretionary EQY_DVD_YLD EQY_BETA 6.0 6.3
Gildan Activewear GIL 21-May-14 $ 29.09 $ 39.23 0.8 1.0 3.0
Thomson Reuters Corp. TRI 27-Feb-14 $ 38.31 $ 49.61 3.3 0.8 3.0
Consumer Staples 3.4 3.6
Empire Company Ltd. EMP'A 1-Apr-15 $ 90.80 $ 90.03 1.2 0.5 1.7
George Weston Ltd. WN 31-J ul-12 $ 59.25 $ 102.20 1.7 0.7 1.7
Energy 25.7 22.3
AltaGas Ltd. ALA 30-Oct-13 $ 38.19 $ 40.43 4.7 0.8 4.3
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX 17-Dec-14 $ 26.82 $ 23.03 5.2 1.2 4.3
Can. Natural Resources Ltd. CNQ 31-J ul-12 $ 27.35 $ 38.53 2.4 1.6 4.3
Crescent Point Energy Corp. CPG 3-Oct-12 $ 43.00 $ 29.95 9.2 1.2 4.3
Enbridge Inc. ENB 21-J an-15 $ 59.87 $ 62.25 3.0 0.8 4.3
Inter Pipeline Ltd. IPL 5-J un-13 $ 23.71 $ 31.15 4.7 0.8 4.3
Financials 35.8 34.6
Bank of Montreal BMO 4-Mar-15 76.27 $ $ 78.07 4.1 0.8 5.1
Cdn. Apartment Properties REITCAR.un 11-Feb-15 $ 26.97 $ 27.48 4.4 0.6 5.1
Element Financial Corp. EFN 3-Sep-14 $ 14.10 $ 18.34 0.0 0.9 5.1 R
H&R REIT HR.un 20-Aug-14 $ 23.36 $ 22.59 6.0 0.7 5.1
Manulife Financial Corp. MFC 26-Mar-14 $ 21.42 $ 22.91 3.0 1.4 5.1
Royal Bank of Canada RY 19-J un-13 $ 60.69 $ 79.97 3.9 0.9 5.1
Toronto Dominion Bank TD 31-J ul-12 $ 39.46 $ 56.15 3.6 0.9 5.1
Health Care - 5.2
Industrials 8.5 8.2
TransForce Inc. TFI 11-Feb-15 $ 29.36 $ 27.36 2.5 0.9 4.3
WestJ et Airlines Ltd. WJ A 22-Oct-14 $ 30.65 $ 26.46 2.1 0.7 4.3
Information Technology 3.2 2.5
CGI Group Inc. GIB.A 22-Aug-12 $ 25.83 $ 53.25 0.0 0.8 1.6
DH Corp. DH 4-Feb-15 $ 38.64 $ 41.48 3.1 0.8 1.6
Materials 11.0 10.6
Agnico Eagle Resources Ltd. AEM 17-Dec-14 $ 27.00 $ 39.55 1.0 1.2 5.5
Lundin Mining Corp. LUN 17-Dec-14 $ 5.35 $ 5.78 0.0 1.9 5.5
Telecom Services 4.3 4.6
Rogers Communications RCI'B 27-Nov-14 $ 45.84 $ 43.37 4.4 0.7 2.2
TELUS Corp T 31-J ul-12 $ 31.31 $ 42.08 4.0 0.7 2.2
Utilities 2.1 2.2
Canadian Utilities Ltd. CU 31-J ul-12 $ 35.00 $ 36.66 3.2 0.7 1.1
Northland Power Inc. NPI
8-May-13
19.43 $ 16.56 $ 6.5 0.7 1.1
Source: Bloomberg, Thomson One (Priced May 22, 2015 at 10:30 am EDT)
**R =Restricted Stocks - Stocks placed under restriction while on The NBF Strategic List will remain on the list, but noted as Restricted in
accordance with compliance requirements
* Individual position weights reflect an adjustment for Health Care. The Health Care weighting has been reallocated to sectors rated "overweight"
with any remaining weight reallocated proportionally to the remaining sectors. As such, the individual position weights will exceed the total sector
weights and may not sum to 1
NBF Strategic List (May 22, 2015)
WEIGHT* (%)
Date Time Release Period Previous Consensus
26-May 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Apr 4.00% -0.50%
26-May 08:30 Durables Ex Transportation Apr -0.20% 0.40%
26-May 08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Apr -0.50% 0.40%
26-May 08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Apr -0.40% --
26-May 09:00 FHFA House Price Index MoM Mar 0.70% 0.70%
26-May 09:00 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 1Q 1.40% --
26-May 09:00 S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA Mar 0.93% 0.90%
26-May 09:00 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY Mar 5.03% 4.60%
26-May 09:00 S&P/CaseShiller 20-City Index NSA Mar 173.67 --
26-May 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI MoM Mar 0.42% --
26-May 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY Mar 4.22% --
26-May 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA Mar 166.8 --
26-May 09:45 Markit US Composite PMI May P 57 --
26-May 09:45 Markit US Services PMI May P 57.4 57
26-May 10:00 New Home Sales Apr 481K 500K
26-May 10:00 New Home Sales MoM Apr -11.40% 4.00%
26-May 10:00 Consumer Confidence Index May 95.2 95
26-May 10:00 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index May -3 0
26-May 10:30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity May -16 -12.5
27-May 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications May 22 -1.50% --
28-May 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims May 23 274K --
28-May 08:30 Continuing Claims May 16 2211K --
28-May 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May 24 42.4 --
28-May 10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM Apr 1.10% 0.70%
28-May 10:00 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Apr 13.40% --
29-May 08:30 GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q S 0.20% -0.80%
29-May 08:30 Personal Consumption 1Q S 1.90% 2.00%
29-May 08:30 GDP Price Index 1Q S -0.10% -0.10%
29-May 08:30 Core PCE QoQ 1Q S 0.90% 0.90%
29-May 09:00 ISM Milwaukee May 48.08 --
29-May 09:45 Chicago Purchasing Manager May 52.3 53
29-May 10:00 U. of Mich. Sentiment May F 88.6 90
29-May 10:00 U. of Mich. Current Conditions May F 99.8 --
29-May 10:00 U. of Mich. Expectations May F 81.5 --
29-May 10:00 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation May F 2.90% --
29-May 10:00 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation May F 2.80% --
Date Time Release Period Previous Consensus
25-May 10:00 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence May 22 56.3 --
27-May 10:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision May 27 0.75% 0.75%
28-May 08:30 Current Account Balance 1Q -$13.9B --
28-May 08:30 Industrial Product Price MoM Apr 0.30% --
28-May 08:30 Raw Materials Price Index MoM Apr -0.90% --
29-May 08:30 GDP MoM Mar 0.00% --
29-May 08:30 GDP YoY Mar 2.10% --
29-May 08:30 Quarterly GDP Annualized 1Q 2.40% --
U.S. Indicators
Canadian Indicators
The Week at a Glance
WEEK AHEAD
THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR
(May 25
th
– May 29
th
)
Source : Bloomberg
U.S. Markets are closed Monday May 25th for Memorial Day
The Week at a Glance
S&P/TSX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR
Monday May 25
th
, 2015
None
Tuesday May 26
th
, 2015
Wednesday May 27
th
, 2015
Thursday May 28
th
, 2015
Friday May 29
th
, 2015
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
*Companies of the S&P/TSX index expected to report. Stocks from the Strategic List are in Bold.
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
CAE Inc CAE 0.234
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
Bank of Montreal BMO 1.66
National Bank of Canada NA 1.113
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM 2.226
Descartes Systems Group Inc/The DSG 0.127
Royal Bank of Canada RY 1.581
Toronto-Dominion Bank/The TD 1.101
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
Bank of Nova Scotia/The BNS 1.39
The Week at a Glance
S&P500 INDEX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR
Monday May 25
th
, 2015
None
Tuesday May 26
th
, 2015
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
AutoZone Inc AZO 9.512
Wednesday May 27
th
, 2015
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
Costco Wholesale Corp COST 1.159
Michael Kors Holdings Ltd KORS 0.913
Tiffany & Co TIF 0.694
Thursday May 28
th
, 2015
COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATE
Avago Technologies Ltd AVGO 2.005
GameStop Corp GME 0.597
Friday May 29
th
, 2015
None
Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research
* Companies of the S&P500 index expected to report. Stocks from the Credit Suisse U.S. Focus List are in Bold.
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