IRAN AND ISRAEL CONFLICT. IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF WORLD WAR III?

July 1, 2025, By Kartikey Tripathi


INTRODUCTION

The Iran-Israel conflict is a complex and volatile issue shaping Middle Eastern geopolitics. Rooted in historical shifts and fueled by ideological, strategic, and regional dynamics, it has escalated from covert proxy wars to direct military confrontations. As of July 2025, recent events, including Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, have heightened tensions. This article explores the conflict’s history, its current state, and the controversial angles that make it a focal point of global debate, drawing on credible sources to provide a comprehensive overview.​

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Before the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran and Israel maintained close ties under the periphery doctrine, viewing Arab powers as a common threat (Iran-Israel Relations). Israel supplied military equipment to Iran during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) and bombed Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 to curb nuclear ambitions. The revolution marked a turning point, with Iran’s new Islamic regime severing ties, calling Israel the “Zionist regime” and “Little Satan,” and advocating for its destruction.

Iran began supporting proxy groups, notably Hezbollah in Lebanon since 1982, providing training, weapons, and $400 million by 2010 (Iran-Israel Proxy War). It also backed Palestinian groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) from the 1990s, with Hamas receiving military training and approximately $20 million annually since 2006 (Hamas-Iran Ties). Israel countered with airstrikes, assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists (e.g., Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020), and support for Iranian rebels like the People’s Mujahideen.

MAJOR CONFLICTS

1: Lebanon War: Iran’s IRGC supported Hezbollah, with 6-9 operatives reportedly killed by Israel.
2: Gaza Wars: From 2008-2023, conflicts resulted in significant casualties (e.g., 2014: 73 Israelis, 2,251 Palestinians; 2023-present: 1,450+ Israelis, 32,000+ Palestinians).
3: Syrian Civil War: Iran supported Assad, losing 2,100 soldiers by 2018, while Israel conducted over 2,000 airstrikes in 2018, killing 631+ Syrian and Iranian personnel (Iranian Strategy in Syria).​

Notable Conflicts Table​

Time	Name	Deaths	Result
1985–2000	South Lebanon Conflict	559 Israelis, 621 SLA, 1,276 Hezbollah	Hezbollah victory, Israeli withdrawal
2006	Lebanon War	165 Israelis, 1,954 Lebanese	Stalemate, both claim victory
2008–2009	First Gaza War	14 Israelis, 1,434 Palestinians	Israeli victory
2014	Gaza War	73 Israelis, 2,251 Palestinians	Both claim victory
2023–present	Gaza War	1,450+ Israelis, 32,000+ Palestinians	Ongoing
2023–present	Israel-Hezbollah Conflict	21+ Israelis, 300+ Lebanese	Ongoing
2025	Iran-Israel War	200+ in Iran, 24+ in Israel	Ongoing

CONTROVERSIAL ANGLES

The Iran-Israel conflict is fraught with contentious issues that fuel global debate:

1. Israel’s Strikes on Nuclear Facilities: Israel’s June 2025 attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites killed over 200 in Iran and 24 in Israel, aiming to delay Iran’s nuclear program by at least a year (IAEA Statement). Critics argue these violate the UN Charter and international law, setting a dangerous precedent. The IAEA reported no elevated radiation levels, but the strikes risk pushing Iran toward nuclear weapon development (Iran’s Non-Compliance).
2. Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: Israel’s deep intelligence penetration may accelerate Iran’s nuclear breakout. Iran announced a third uranium enrichment site and threatened to withdraw from the NPT, with the IAEA declaring non-compliance on June 12, 2025, raising proliferation fears.
3. Civilian Impact in Iran: Israeli strikes hit residential areas, killing civilians and evoking memories of the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988). Public anger targets the Iranian regime for failing to warn citizens, with many opposing nuclear weapons but supporting energy programs. This could destabilize the regime long-term (Atlantic Council Analysis).
4. Israeli Public Support and Goals: Most Israelis support the strikes, crediting Netanyahu’s government despite the casualties. Netanyahu aims for regime change in Iran to prevent nuclear weapon development (Netanyahu’s Statement).
5. U.S.-Israel Alignment: President Trump and Netanyahu align on weakening Iran’s proxies and nuclear program but differ on methods. Trump prefers diplomacy, while Netanyahu sees war as necessary, creating uncertainty about U.S. policy (Trump’s Position).
6. Impact on Gaza: Palestinians fear the Israel-Iran war distracts from Gaza’s crisis, risking escalated bombardment. Some blame Iran for Hamas’s actions, while Hamas sees strategic relief, though its strength wanes with Iran’s isolation.
7. Regional and Global Implications: Iran’s weakened proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) reduce its influence. Russia gains from diverted U.S. attention and oil price spikes but risks Iran’s collapse (Russia’s Role). China condemns the strikes, seeking mediation to protect energy interests (China’s Stance).
8. Energy Infrastructure Attacks: Israel targeted Iran’s gas facilities and a refinery, worsening energy shortages but sparing oil production to stabilize global markets. Iran could retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, impacting 20% of global oil (Energy Attacks).

PRESENT CONDITION


The conflict escalated significantly in 2024 and 2025. On April 1, 2024, Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing 16, including 8 IRGC officers (Israeli Airstrike on Consulate). Iran retaliated on April 13, launching over 100 drones and missiles, most intercepted by U.S. and UK forces (Iran’s Drone Attack). Israel struck back on April 19, targeting sites in Iran (Israeli Missiles Hit Iran).

In June 2025, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing top officials and scientists and destroying air defenses, marking the start of the Iran-Israel war (Israel-Iran Conflict History). The U.S. intervened on June 21, bombing three Iranian nuclear sites—Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz—in “Operation Midnight Hammer” (U.S. Strikes on Iran). Iran retaliated, targeting U.S. bases in Qatar with no casualties reported (U.S.-Iran Confrontation).

A fragile ceasefire holds as of July 2025, but Iran’s proxies—Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis—have remained largely silent, leaving Iran isolated (Iran’s Isolation). Ongoing conflicts in Gaza (1,450+ Israeli, 32,000+ Palestinian deaths) and with Hezbollah (21+ Israeli, 300+ Lebanese deaths) add to regional instability (Israel-Hezbollah Conflict).


CONCLUSION

The Iran-Israel conflict, rooted in decades of enmity, has reached a critical juncture in 2025 with direct military engagements and U.S. involvement. Its controversial angles—nuclear risks, civilian tolls, and global implications—underscore its complexity. As the region teeters on the edge of further escalation, the conflict’s resolution remains uncertain, with profound consequences for the Middle East and beyond.

 

[Kartikey Tripathi]

It is my request to all readers please write your views here.

 

[Simran Rai]

The Iran-Israel conflict has emerged as one of the most volatile and complex geopolitical challenges of the 21st century. With a deep historical backdrop and intensifying modern dynamics, this confrontation has transitioned from a proxy-driven cold war to an open military engagement, drawing in global powers and regional stakeholders. The post-1979 landscape saw Iran adopting a confrontational stance toward Israel, marking the beginning of decades of hostility that included ideological denunciation, proxy warfare, and intermittent direct attacks. Iran’s financial and military backing of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas has fueled this hostility, while Israel's strategic strikes and intelligence operations have sought to curb Iran’s regional influence and nuclear ambitions.


The current state of the conflict in 2025 represents a significant departure from the past. The killing of Iranian commanders in Syria, followed by Iran’s retaliatory drone strikes and Israel’s air campaign against nuclear and military installations, marks a shift toward overt warfare. The United States' involvement, particularly through targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, underscores the international dimension of the conflict. These developments are not isolated military events but rather strategic moves embedded in broader political calculations involving regime stability, deterrence, and global alliances.


Civilian casualties in Iran following Israeli strikes have triggered domestic unrest, highlighting internal vulnerabilities within the Iranian regime. Public dissatisfaction over the government’s inability to protect citizens and rising opposition to nuclear ambitions signal potential long-term shifts in Iranian politics. At the same time, Israel’s internal political calculus has been shaped by public support for strong action against Iran, with the government projecting these strikes as essential for national security and regional deterrence.


Controversy surrounds the legality and morality of such strikes, particularly given the loss of civilian lives and the risks associated with preemptive military action. International observers and organizations have raised concerns over violations of international law and the potential for these actions to encourage nuclear proliferation, rather than prevent it. Iran's threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and accelerate enrichment activities have only heightened global anxiety.


The conflict has broader regional implications, especially concerning the role of Iranian-backed proxies. Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis have maintained a low profile since the escalation, revealing Iran’s growing isolation. This strategic silence may be tactical, yet it exposes the diminishing capacity of these groups to alter the conflict’s trajectory in favor of Tehran. For Palestinians in Gaza, the Iran-Israel confrontation threatens to divert global attention away from their humanitarian crisis, potentially limiting international pressure on Israel’s military actions in the region.


Globally, reactions have been mixed. Russia stands to benefit from the West’s divided focus and rising oil prices, though instability in Iran could backfire if it affects shared interests in Syria. China, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, has condemned the escalation and proposed mediation, positioning itself as a stabilizing force amid growing global volatility. The United States, while aligning with Israel strategically, remains cautious. Although President Trump’s administration has backed Israeli actions, differing views on military engagement versus diplomatic solutions have added complexity to U.S. foreign policy.


Energy infrastructure has become another battleground. Israel’s targeted strikes on Iranian gas facilities have aggravated domestic shortages while sparing oil production to avoid global market disruption. However, the threat of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz—a key transit route for 20% of the world’s oil—remains a pressing concern, with potential global economic consequences.


In summary, the Iran-Israel conflict of 2025 represents not just a bilateral military standoff but a nexus of ideological battles, regional power shifts, and global strategic realignments. The fragile ceasefire in place masks deeper uncertainties, as neither side shows signs of retreating from its core objectives. Whether this leads to a broader war, regime change, or an eventual diplomatic breakthrough will depend on the actions of not just the primary actors but also their allies and adversaries. The world continues to watch, hoping for de-escalation but preparing for further instability.​