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The advertisement from March 18, 2020, claims a significant profit of ₹80,000 in crude oil trading, specifically by recommending a "sell" at ₹2000 and hitting a second target of ₹1900, with a low of ₹1781. This aligns perfectly with the turbulent and rapidly falling crude oil prices in March 2020.
Here's an analysis in the context of crude oil market conditions during that period:
Context of March 2020 for Crude Oil:
March 2020 was an
extremely volatile and historically significant month for crude oil prices. This period saw an unprecedented confluence of two major bearish factors:
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impact: The rapid global spread of COVID-19 led to widespread lockdowns, travel restrictions, and a massive decline in industrial and economic activity worldwide. This severely impacted global oil demand, as transportation, manufacturing, and other sectors consumed significantly less fuel. The IEA (International Energy Agency) in its March 2020 report noted that global oil demand was expected to fall year-on-year for the first time since 2009.
- OPEC+ Price War: Simultaneously, in early March 2020 (specifically on March 6th), a critical meeting between OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies (OPEC+, including Russia) failed to agree on production cuts to counter the demand slump caused by COVID-19. This breakdown in negotiations led to Saudi Arabia and Russia initiating a price war, with both countries announcing plans to significantly increase oil production. This flooded an already oversupplied market, causing prices to plummet further.
The Trade Claim (Sell Crude Oil @ 2000 & done 2nd tgt 1900, made low of 1781):
Given the market conditions, crude oil prices were in a steep decline throughout March 2020. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude, a major global benchmark, saw prices fall drastically, even briefly going negative in April 2020 (though the March 18th date precedes the negative price event).
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in India, crude oil futures contracts mirrored this global trend, experiencing significant downward movement. A "sell" recommendation at ₹2000 with a target of ₹1900 and a low of ₹1781 on March 18, 2020, would have been
highly profitable because the market was indeed crashing. The price action described (selling at a higher price and buying back at a lower price) is consistent with profiting from a falling market.
Conclusion:
The advertisement's claim of making ₹80,000 profit by selling crude oil at ₹2000 and hitting targets down to ₹1900 (and a low of ₹1781) on March 18, 2020, is
highly plausible and consistent with the historical crude oil market conditions of that period. March 2020 was a time of extreme bearishness for crude oil, driven by the COVID-19 demand shock and the Saudi-Russia price war, leading to a significant and rapid decline in prices, which would have offered substantial opportunities for short sellers.
However, it's important to note that such advertisements, while showcasing a successful trade, often highlight only the winning trades and do not provide a complete picture of risk or overall performance. The "99% sure shot" claim is a marketing exaggeration typical of tip providers.
