Swaps and its scenarios

Description
This is a presentation describes Swaps and discusses topics like cash flows, interest rate swaps, comparative advantage, currency swaps with the examples of Microsoft, IBM, BP, GM , Qantas

SWAPS

NATURE OF SWAPS
A swap is an agreement to exchange cash flows at specified future times according to certain specified rules

2

AN EXAMPLE OF A “PLAIN VANILLA” INTEREST RATE SWAP
? An

agreement by Microsoft to receive 6-month LIBOR & pay a fixed rate of 5% per annum every 6 months for 3 years on a notional principal of $100 million ? Next slide illustrates cash flows that could occur

CASH FLOWS TO MICROSOFT
---------Millions of Dollars--------LIBOR FLOATING Date Rate FIXED Net Cash Flow Cash Flow Cash Flow +2.10 –2.50 –0.40

Mar.5, 2004
Sept. 5, 2004

4.2%
4.8%

Mar.5, 2005
Sept. 5, 2005 Mar.5, 2006

5.3%
5.5% 5.6%

+2.40
+2.65 +2.75

–2.50
–2.50 –2.50

–0.10
+0.15 +0.25

Sept. 5, 2006
Mar.5, 2007

5.9%
6.4%

+2.80
+2.95

–2.50
–2.50

+0.30
+0.45

TYPICAL USES OF AN INTEREST RATE SWAP
?

Converting a liability from
? ?

fixed rate to floating rate floating rate to fixed rate
fixed rate to floating rate floating rate to fixed rate

?

Converting an investment from
? ?

INTEL AND MICROSOFT (MS) TRANSFORM A LIABILITY

5% 5.2%

Intel
LIBOR

MS
LIBOR+0.1%

FINANCIAL INSTITUTION IS INVOLVED

4.985% 5.2%

5.015%

Intel
LIBOR

F.I.
LIBOR

MS
LIBOR+0.1 %

Financial Institution has two offsetting swaps

INTEL AND MICROSOFT (MS) TRANSFORM AN ASSET
5%
4.7%

Intel
LIBOR-0.2% LIBOR

MS

FINANCIAL INSTITUTION IS INVOLVED

4.985%

5.015% 4.7%

Intel
LIBOR-0.2% LIBOR

F.I.
LIBOR

MS

QUOTES BY A SWAP MARKET MAKER
Maturity
2 years 3 years 4 years

Bid (%)
6.03 6.21 6.35

Offer (%)
6.06 6.24 6.39

Swap Rate (%)
6.045 6.225 6.370

5 years
7 years 10 years

6.47
6.65 6.83

6.51
6.68 6.87

6.490
6.665 6.850

10

THE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ARGUMENT
? AAACorp

wants to borrow floating ? BBBCorp wants to borrow fixed

Fixed AAACorp BBBCorp 4.0% 5.2%

Floating 6-month LIBOR + 0.30% 6-month LIBOR + 1%

THE SWAP

3.95% 4% AAACorp

BBBCorp
LIBOR+1%
LIBOR

CRITICISM OF THE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ARGUMENT
? The

4.0% and 5.2% rates available to AAACorp and BBBCorp in fixed rate markets are 5-year rates ? The LIBOR+0.3% and LIBOR+ 1% rates available in the floating rate market are sixmonth rates ? BBBCorp’s fixed rate depends on the spread above LIBOR it borrows at in the future

THE SWAP WHEN A FINANCIAL INSTITUTION IS INVOLVED
3.93%
4% AAACorp 3.97%

F.I .

BBBCorp LIBOR+1% LIBOR

LIBOR

THE NATURE OF SWAP RATES
? Six-month

LIBOR is a short-term AA borrowing rate ? The 5-year swap rate has a risk corresponding to the situation where 10 sixmonth loans are made to AA borrowers at LIBOR ? This is because the lender can enter into a swap where income from the LIBOR loans is exchanged for the 5-year swap rate

CURRENCY SWAPS
In an interest rate swap the principal is not exchanged ? In a currency swap the principal is usually exchanged at the beginning and the end of the swap’s life
?

SCENARIO

Dollars 4%

IBM
Sterling 7%

BP

THE CASH FLOWS(IBM PERSPECTIVE)
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Dollars Pounds $ £ ------millions-----–15.00 +10.00 +0.60 –0.70 +0.60 –0.70 +0.60 –0.70 +0.60 –0.70 +15.60 ?10.70

COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ARGUMENTS FOR CURRENCY SWAPS
General Motors wants to borrow 20 million AUD Qantas wants to borrow 12 million USD

USD General Motors Qantas 5.0% 7.0%

AUD 12.6% 13.0%

Total gains to the parties involved: (7-2) – (13.0-12.6) = 1.6%

COMPLETE PICTURE
USD 1.3% USD 5.0% USD 6.3%

GM
USD 5.0% AUD 11.9%

Financial institution
AUD 13.0% AUD 1.1%

Quantus Airways
AUD 13%

FURTHER COMPLICATIONS…
?

Cross Currency interest rate swaps : Combo of floating rate and Fixed rate.
?

A small firm might borrow $ from a local bank at a floating-rate and then use a cross-currency interest-rate swap to swap payments with a large firm that has issued fixed-rate bonds denominated in €.

?

Cross Currency Floating to floating currency swaps : Combo when both are Floating rates
?

A multinational firm with a loan in euros based on a short-term European interest rate can use a crosscurrency floating-to-floating swap to transform its € loan into a dollar loan on the prime rate.

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP

Loan Corp (Reference Entity)

BANK OF CDS

Investor Co

Takes a Loan

Buys a CDS(5%)

SCENARIOS UNLEASHED…

In case of no credit event on associated credit instrument.

In case the associated credit instrument suffered a credit event.

BASIC CONCEPTS
CDS protection amount ? CDS Spread : Annual amount the protection buyer must pay the protection seller over the length of the contract, expressed as a percentage of the notional amount ? CDS spreads will increase as credit-worthiness declines, and decline as credit-worthiness increases
?

CREDIT EVENT TRIGGERS
Loan default ? Restructuring ? Bankruptcy, ? Or having its credit rating downgraded.
?



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