STUDY ON CURRENT RECESSION IN INDIA ON VARIATION OF JOB AND TO FIND OUT ITS RELATIONSHIP FOR FUTURE SLOW DOWN (RECESSION)
Click to edit Master subtitle style
Wg Cdr V K Agrawal & Bhavik Mehta
Parul Institlute of Engg and tech. 3/19/12 [M.B.A. ]
Topics covered
1. 2. 3.
Introduction Objectives Research Methodology
a) b) c)
Case – I Case – II Case – III
4. 5.
Findings Limitation of Study Conclusion
6. 3/19/12
Introduction
•
We have undergone through recent recession in India in the year 2008. During this period, Ministry of labour has carried out quarterly surveys. We have undertaken study of these, 11 quarterlies starting from Oct 2008 to till Jun 2011 (app. 03 years). As decided by the Ministry of Labour & Employment, the scope of survey is limited to selected 8 sectors, viz. Mining, Textile & Textile Garments, Metals & Metal Products, Automobile, Gems & Jewellery, Construction, Transport and 3/19/12 IT/BPO to study the job loss as a result of
•
•
We wanted to know the total variation of job during this period and also to find out the relationship between different Macro Economic factors such as
I. II. III.
GDP Export IIP with variation of job.
•
We have applied the regression analysis to establish this objective. Further, we wanted to check up the whether this analysis will hold good for the future global scenario.
3/19/12
GDP
•
The total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year GDP is given by the following relation: GDP = Consumption goods and services (C) + Gross Investments (I) + Government Purchases (G) + (Exports (X) - Imports (M))
3/19/12
•
INDIA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(IIP)
Industrial Production is an economic report that measures changes in output for the industrial sector of the economy. The industrial sector includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Although these sectors contribute only a small portion of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), they are highly sensitive to interest rates and consumer demand. This makes Industrial Production an important tool for forecasting future GDP and economic performance. 3/19/12
Objectives
•
To study the effect of current recession on Variation of job in selected 8 sectors.
I.
To find out the correlation between GDP & Variation of Job. To find out the correlation between Export & Variation of Job. To find out the correlation between IIP & Variation of Job.
II.
III.
•
In order to make the strategies for 3/19/12 future recession, to test whether the
Research Methodology
•
Research design research design & research design
Exploratory Descriptive
•
Data collection - The source of data is secondary in nature. The data is analyzed with the help of MS Excel 2007 software and then further conclusion is drawn. Sources of data - Report on Quarterly Employment Survey ,Government of India, Ministry of 3/19/12
•
Case - I
•
Regression analysis between GDP Growth rate (X) & Variation of Job (Y) Part – A
•
To find out the correlation between GDP & Variation of Job (Data from Oct 2008 till Jun 2011)
3/19/12
•
They are forming following regression equation as mention below
Y = - 6.29+0.97X
Where X = GDP growth rate Y = Variation of job
Coefficient Of Correlation = 0.4
3/19/12
Part - B
•
Based on these data we want to analyze, whether this theory will hold good for global scenario too. So we want to carry out through hypothesis testing. CASE I b.docx
•
Analysis
• 3/19/12
As null hypothesis is accepted,
Case – II
•
To find out the correlation between Export & Variation of Job we have taken data from Oct 2008 till Jun2011 CASE II.docx
•
Analysis
•
From the analysis we have found 3/19/12
Case – III
Part – A
•
To find out the correlation between IIP & Variation of Job we have taken data from Oct -2008 till June 2011. CASE III a.docx
3/19/12
•
•
They are forming following regression equation as mention below Y= 0.29+0.2133X Where X = IIP Y = Variation of job
Coefficient Of Correlation = 0.36
•
We can predict from the above regression equation that if the value of IIP lower than
3/19/12
-1.36 % than there will be negative
Part – B
•
Based on these data we want to analyze, whether this theory will hold good for global scenario too.So we want to carry out through hypothesis testing. CASE IIIb.docx Analysis
• 3/19/12
As null hypothesis is accepted,
Findings
•
We are expecting in next big slow down (recession) in year 2012 as per the prevailing conditions in the Indian & global market. Symptoms of next slowdown are
v v v v 3/19/12
•
Devaluation of Rupee Euro crisis in European market Inflation Increasing fuel price
this all are indicators of recession.
Findings
•
There is positive relationship of variation of job with GDP & IIP however there is little or no relationship between variation of job & exports. If GDP goes below 6.4 % then it starts loss of job . If IIP goes below -1.35 % then it starts loss of job. However no relationship could be 3/19/12 established with these data in the
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Study We have taken secondary data from
the quarterly surveys carried out by Ministry of Labour. This survey belongs to India only
•
The second limitation of the study is that the analysis is done on limited selected 8 sectors, viz. Mining, Textile & Textile Garments, Metals &
Metal Products, Automobile, Gems & Jewellery, Construction, Transport and 3/19/12 IT/BPO which is covered from
Conclusion
As per our objectives we have found out variation of job with respect to GDP , export & IIP. Where we could established there is positive relationship between variation of job & GDP as well as IIP But we are . not able to form any kind of relationship between variation of job & Export. From this we conclude there is less impact of export on the variation of job. Further we wanted 3/19/12 to apply regression model of Indian
Scope for Further Research
•
The further research should also include the effect of economic recession on the employment status of service sector in India like aviation, tourism, hospitality and various other sectors.
3/19/12
• • • •
Bibliography Business statistics by Ken Black Research Methodology by C R Kothari Report on Quarterly Employment Survey ,Government of India, Ministry of Labour & Employment Labour Bureau, Chandigarh Weblography www.tradingeconomics.com Invest in india.com
• • •
• 3/19/12
www.gkvharidwar.org/journals/gbr_7/Cha
THANK YOU
3/19/12
doc_843663105.pptx
Click to edit Master subtitle style
Wg Cdr V K Agrawal & Bhavik Mehta
Parul Institlute of Engg and tech. 3/19/12 [M.B.A. ]
Topics covered
1. 2. 3.
Introduction Objectives Research Methodology
a) b) c)
Case – I Case – II Case – III
4. 5.
Findings Limitation of Study Conclusion
6. 3/19/12
Introduction
•
We have undergone through recent recession in India in the year 2008. During this period, Ministry of labour has carried out quarterly surveys. We have undertaken study of these, 11 quarterlies starting from Oct 2008 to till Jun 2011 (app. 03 years). As decided by the Ministry of Labour & Employment, the scope of survey is limited to selected 8 sectors, viz. Mining, Textile & Textile Garments, Metals & Metal Products, Automobile, Gems & Jewellery, Construction, Transport and 3/19/12 IT/BPO to study the job loss as a result of
•
•
We wanted to know the total variation of job during this period and also to find out the relationship between different Macro Economic factors such as
I. II. III.
GDP Export IIP with variation of job.
•
We have applied the regression analysis to establish this objective. Further, we wanted to check up the whether this analysis will hold good for the future global scenario.
3/19/12
GDP
•
The total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year GDP is given by the following relation: GDP = Consumption goods and services (C) + Gross Investments (I) + Government Purchases (G) + (Exports (X) - Imports (M))
3/19/12
•
INDIA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(IIP)
Industrial Production is an economic report that measures changes in output for the industrial sector of the economy. The industrial sector includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Although these sectors contribute only a small portion of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), they are highly sensitive to interest rates and consumer demand. This makes Industrial Production an important tool for forecasting future GDP and economic performance. 3/19/12
Objectives
•
To study the effect of current recession on Variation of job in selected 8 sectors.
I.
To find out the correlation between GDP & Variation of Job. To find out the correlation between Export & Variation of Job. To find out the correlation between IIP & Variation of Job.
II.
III.
•
In order to make the strategies for 3/19/12 future recession, to test whether the
Research Methodology
•
Research design research design & research design
Exploratory Descriptive
•
Data collection - The source of data is secondary in nature. The data is analyzed with the help of MS Excel 2007 software and then further conclusion is drawn. Sources of data - Report on Quarterly Employment Survey ,Government of India, Ministry of 3/19/12
•
Case - I
•
Regression analysis between GDP Growth rate (X) & Variation of Job (Y) Part – A
•
To find out the correlation between GDP & Variation of Job (Data from Oct 2008 till Jun 2011)
3/19/12
•
They are forming following regression equation as mention below
Y = - 6.29+0.97X
Where X = GDP growth rate Y = Variation of job
Coefficient Of Correlation = 0.4
3/19/12
Part - B
•
Based on these data we want to analyze, whether this theory will hold good for global scenario too. So we want to carry out through hypothesis testing. CASE I b.docx
•
Analysis
• 3/19/12
As null hypothesis is accepted,
Case – II
•
To find out the correlation between Export & Variation of Job we have taken data from Oct 2008 till Jun2011 CASE II.docx
•
Analysis
•
From the analysis we have found 3/19/12
Case – III
Part – A
•
To find out the correlation between IIP & Variation of Job we have taken data from Oct -2008 till June 2011. CASE III a.docx
3/19/12
•
•
They are forming following regression equation as mention below Y= 0.29+0.2133X Where X = IIP Y = Variation of job
Coefficient Of Correlation = 0.36
•
We can predict from the above regression equation that if the value of IIP lower than
3/19/12
-1.36 % than there will be negative
Part – B
•
Based on these data we want to analyze, whether this theory will hold good for global scenario too.So we want to carry out through hypothesis testing. CASE IIIb.docx Analysis
• 3/19/12
As null hypothesis is accepted,
Findings
•
We are expecting in next big slow down (recession) in year 2012 as per the prevailing conditions in the Indian & global market. Symptoms of next slowdown are
v v v v 3/19/12
•
Devaluation of Rupee Euro crisis in European market Inflation Increasing fuel price
this all are indicators of recession.
Findings
•
There is positive relationship of variation of job with GDP & IIP however there is little or no relationship between variation of job & exports. If GDP goes below 6.4 % then it starts loss of job . If IIP goes below -1.35 % then it starts loss of job. However no relationship could be 3/19/12 established with these data in the
•
•
•
•
Limitation of Study We have taken secondary data from
the quarterly surveys carried out by Ministry of Labour. This survey belongs to India only
•
The second limitation of the study is that the analysis is done on limited selected 8 sectors, viz. Mining, Textile & Textile Garments, Metals &
Metal Products, Automobile, Gems & Jewellery, Construction, Transport and 3/19/12 IT/BPO which is covered from
Conclusion
As per our objectives we have found out variation of job with respect to GDP , export & IIP. Where we could established there is positive relationship between variation of job & GDP as well as IIP But we are . not able to form any kind of relationship between variation of job & Export. From this we conclude there is less impact of export on the variation of job. Further we wanted 3/19/12 to apply regression model of Indian
Scope for Further Research
•
The further research should also include the effect of economic recession on the employment status of service sector in India like aviation, tourism, hospitality and various other sectors.
3/19/12
• • • •
Bibliography Business statistics by Ken Black Research Methodology by C R Kothari Report on Quarterly Employment Survey ,Government of India, Ministry of Labour & Employment Labour Bureau, Chandigarh Weblography www.tradingeconomics.com Invest in india.com
• • •
• 3/19/12
www.gkvharidwar.org/journals/gbr_7/Cha
THANK YOU
3/19/12
doc_843663105.pptx