Russia's Foreign Capital: Fight or Flight?

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Russian gangsters, $230 million in allegedly stolen funds, a hedge fund investor and YouTube. The makings for a thriller are now a case study at business school. Professor Ray Fisman, director of the Social Enterprise Program, is teaching a case about Bill Browder’s tangle with the Russian government. Browder, the CEO/founder of Hermitage Capital, has accused the Russian government of organized corruption that took $230 million in a scam. The firm has approximately $3.5 billion invested in the country, making it one of largest foreign investors in the country. Countering his claims, the Russian Interior Ministry is seeking his arrest for illegally evading taxes. The story took turn on October 9 when Browder posted a documentary-style video on YouTube in English and in Russian to publicize his case. (Browder spoke at Columbia Business School in October 2006.)

In a recent commentary in Forbes.com, Fisman, writing with Eric Werker from Harvard Business School, wonders if this latest development in the story represents the “epigraph to a new chapter of capital flight from Russia.” However, underscoring the story about Browder’s standoff with the Russian government are larger questions about governance, economic development and foreign investment. Fisman writes:

Economic development requires investment. For their part, investors typically explore the upside and downside of any given opportunity: What is the likelihood that we will strike oil? At what price will we be able sell our product? What are the wages and taxes we will need to pay? Understanding the costs and risks, they then decide to invest if the profits are high enough.

Many of the risks come not from uncertainty over resource availability or technologies, but whether the “rules of the game” will be changed after the investment is made. That is, will an investment partner try to rewrite the contract to get a bigger piece of the pie? Or will a sovereign state--like Venezuela or Russia--try to up its share through higher taxes or even outright expropriation? If investors don’t trust the legal system to enforce the rules, the potential downside makes investment a whole lot riskier. So economists emphasize the role of contract enforcement and predictable government policies to foster investment and growth.

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Photo credit: Josef F. Stuefer



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