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Five Key Factors that Move the Forex Markets -- and How to Profit from Them
Hi! We're Boris Schlossberg and Kathy Lien, and we've been making people money in Forex for over a decade. As Directors of Currency Research at GFT and long-timeInvestopedia.com contributors, we've seen our share of wins and losses... Thankfully, over the years, we've also been able to learn from our less glamorous predictions and come up with a currency trading system that has earned us a very respectable success rate on Forex trades.
Today, we're sharing our Forex trading system with you. We're going to show you how to analyze the movements of any currency pair using a simple checklist of five key currency-moving factors. These are the same factors that we use to analyze
Why Forex?
Although trading currencies originated as a way to purchase foreign goods and services, investors soon learned that there are huge speculative returns to be made by predicting the value of international currencies. Today, those who use the Forex market as an investment vehicle outnumber those who trade currencies to expedite world trade. In fact, as of December 2006, 80% of all trades in the currency market are made by investors or investment entities out to make a quick return on their extra cash.
The Forex market is the most prolific market in the world, attracting trillions of dollars per day from central banks, corporations, hedge funds, and individual speculators. This fast-paced market operates 24/7, 5 days a week, beginning with trade in Wellington, New Zealand, and continuing on to Sydney, Australia; Tokyo, Japan; London, England; and New York, New York before the whole cycle begins again.
Forex is exciting, and with the right guidance and a bit of luck you can earn 500%, 600%, even 2000% returns. But Forex is not for everyone. If you prefer the penny slots to the high roller tables, then the high-stakes world of Forex trading is probably not for you. Forex is best traded with money you have allocated as risk capital -- money you don't need for day to day expenses.
So, if you'd like to spice up your more secure investments with a pinch of adrenalin and a dash of risk, try a few Forex trades. But first, let us show you how you can gain an edge in the market with the...
Five Keys to Predicting Forex Market Movements
To profit from the fascinating world of international trade, you must have a firm grip on the key factors that affect a currency's value. When making our trades, we analyze five key factors. In order of importance, they are:
• Interest Rates
• Economic Growth
• Geo-Politics
• Trade and Capital Flows
Key Factor 1. Interest Rates.
We use two methods to profit from the difference in countries' interest rates:
• interest income
• capital appreciation
Generating interest income.
Every currency in the world comes attached with an interest rate that is set by its country’s central bank. All things being equal, you should always buy currencies from countries with high-interest rates and finance these purchases with currency from countries with low-interest rates.
For example, as of the fall of 2006, interest rates in the United States stood at 5.25%, while rates in Japan were set at .25%. You could have taken advantage of this rate difference by borrowing a large sum of Japanese yen, exchanging it for US dollars, and using the US dollars to purchase bonds or CDs at the US 5.25% rate. In other words, you could have borrowed money at .25%, lent it out at 5.25%, and made a 5% return. Or you could save yourself all the hassle of becoming a money lender by simplytrading the currency pair to affect the same transaction.
Generating income from capital appreciation.
Interest Rates Spark a 700 Point Rally
Another great example of the power of interest rates in the currency market occurred in August of 2006. At that time, the Bank of England surprised the market by raising its short-term rates from 4.5% to 4.75%. Interest rates for Japan were still at a low .25%.
The rise in England's interest rates widened the interest rate differential on the popular GBP/JPY cross from 425 basis points to 450 basis points. Investment money flowed into Great Britain as traders bought up pounds to take advantage of the new spread. As the demand for the GBP increased, the value of the GBP increased, and the spread between the currencies increased. This domino effect lead to a 700-point rallyin the GBP/JPY over the next three weeks.
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Figure 1-2. When the Bank of England raised short-term interest rates in August 2006, it lead to a 700-point rally in the GBP/JPY over the next three weeks.
80 Points in Less than 24 Hours
More recently, we have used interest rate differentials to successfully predict several profitable trades for Forex Advisor members.
The concept of interest rates can be used to trade currencies using both long- and short-term perspectives. On a long-term basis, we look for major themes. On a short-term basis, we look for surprises in the news that shift the market’s interest rate expectations. We were able to make two winning trades based on short-term interest rate flows in the Australian dollar/Japanese yen (AUD/JPY) currency pair on January 24, 2007.
The trigger for our trade was the surprise drop in Australian consumer prices during the fourth quarter. The market was looking for hot inflation numbers but instead they received cold ones. Low inflation numbers meant the central bank of Australia was not likely to raise interest rates as expected. This news sent the Australian dollar tumbling hard against the Japanese yen, as traders speculated that the interest rate differential between the two currencies would no longer grow.
The first trade we made on January 24 banked us 45 points. We took profit before the currency pair retraced and then sold it again when it showed further signs of weakness. The second January 24 trade produced an additional 35 points for a total of 80 points.

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Australian dollar vs. Japanese yen, January 24, 2007. By predicting the affect of unexpectedly low inflation on the Australian dollar, we made two winning trades on January 24. Combined, these trades netted us 80 points in one day.
Five Key Factors that Move the Forex Markets -- and How to Profit from Them
Key Factor 2. Economic Growth.
The next factor you need to consider when predicting a country's currency movements is its economic growth. The stronger the economy, the greater the possibility that the central bank will raise its interest rates to tame the growth of inflation. And the higher a country's interest rates, the bigger the likelihood that foreign investors will invest in a country's financial markets. More foreign investors means a greater demand for the country's currency. A greater demand results in an increase in a currency's value.

Hence, a ripple effect: economic growth inspires higher interest rates inspires more foreign investment inspires greater currency demand which inspires an increase in the currency's value.
How Anemic Economic Growth Crashed EUR/USD 2,000 Points
For a good example of the impact of economic growth on the direction of currency rates, let’s look at the EUR/USD from 2005 to 2006. Economic growth is best measured by a country's Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. The United States and Eurozone represent two of the most prosperous regions in the world with GDPs running at $13 trillion and $11 trillion respectively.
In 2005 and 2006, the difference in growth rates between the two major economic powers was clearly reflected in currency movements. In 2005, the Eurozone lagged significantly behind the United States in economic growth, averaging an anemic 1.5% rate throughout the year while the US expanded at a healthy 3% rate. Consequently, investment capital flowed from Europe to the US and the EUR/USD dropped by nearly 2,000 basis points by the end of 2005. In 2006, however, Eurozone growth perked up while US growth began to slow. At the end of 2006, Eurozone GDP actually overtook US growth rates, causing the EUR/USD to rally. We've used GDP's to forecast trends on several more Forex trades in the past. One great example is our November 14, 2006, United States dollar/ Japanese yen trade (USD/JPY).
67 Points in Four Hours
In the middle of November 2006, hurt by the contraction in its housing sector, the US economic data began to deteriorate. Rumor had it that the US might lower interest rates in the first quarter of 2007, which would encourage foreign investors to look elsewhere.
Meanwhile, the Japanese economy was buoyed by the weak yen that made Japanese products affordable internationally and helped spur double digit growth in exports. On the 1% forecast. We decided to take advantage of the strength of the Japanese economic growth vs. the relatively weak economic outlook in the US, so we went short USD/JPY at 117.82. As we hoped, that morning, in sharp contrast to Japan, US retail sales produced very weak numbers and the USD/JPY pair collapsed. We were able to collect 67 points on the trade in less than four hours.
Five Key Factors that Move the Forex Markets -- and How to Profit from Them
Key Factor 3. Geo-Politics.
Do you hate the business section? Do your eyes glaze over at the mere mention of economic data and mind-numbing accounting numbers? Fear not. The currency market is the only
 
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