devendra
Devendra Thuthgar
gdp growth projected at 7.1% in 2008-09
:SugarwareZ-173:
In tune with expectations, the growth of real gross domestic product is officially forecast to decelerate to 7.1% during the current fiscal year from 9% recorded in 2007-08.
All the broad sectors have underperformed, though relatively speaking, the tertiary segment is likely to acquit itself creditably with the incremental growth of 9.6% as against the preceding year's 10.9%.
The Central Statistical Organisation is scheduled to announce the performance of the economy during the third quarter by the end of this month; but based on the advance estimate for the entire year and the fact that in the first half the spurt in GDP at constant prices was of the order of 7.8%, the rate of real GDP would slump to 6.3% during the October 2008-March 2009 period.
This implies a big setback inrelation to the rate notched upduring the same period of the previous fiscal — 8.8%.
If this scenario materialises, it should not be surprising since the ill-effects of the global financial crisis and our own meltdown became manifest only in the second half of 2008-09.
And, indications are that the situation would get worse before any silver lining can be discerned. The stimulus package of the government and the Reserve Bank of India would work, if at all, with a lag; the officially projected figure of GDP growth implicitly rules out any positive fall-out of this twin-pronged attack to counter economic slowdown this fiscal.
The picture is not entirely bleak either. That we could muster an increase of 7.1% in real GDP in the face of a difficult environment — not many countries could boast of a similar record and even China's economic juggernaut has slowed down this year — suggests that we have catapulted to a higher growth orbit.
:lie:
The CSO data also reveal: capital spending has proceeded briskly apace during the ongoing fiscal; at the forecast 34.6%, the rate of gross fixed capital formation is at a peak and marks a considerable leap over the preceding year's 32.5% and 31% two years ago.
With this scale of investment in plant and machinery, the stage is being laid for the economy to pick up even in the near-term. Probably, the rate of capital formation in 2008-09 would have been higher but for the steep increase in the final consumption expenditure of the government —- to 25.9% from 13.7%.
On the other hand, private consumption rose modestly to 15.1% from 12.5%. Sectors that had acted as a drag on the real GDP growth during this year embrace all the three segments, primary, secondary and tertiary.
The real GDP originating from the primary sector is expected to jump by only 2.6% compared with 4.9% in 2007-08. The worst performer was the secondary segment with an incremental spurt of only 4.8% as against 8.1%; within this grouping, manufacturing has fared dismally, with the GDP originating from this important sector slated to go up by a mere 4.1% in contrast to the incremental rise of 8.2% last year.
In construction , the rate of growth is set to decline to 6.5% from 10.1% and in electricity to 4.3% from 5.3%.
The only exception is that the relatively lightweight in the secondary sector —- mining —- which is anticipated to register a faster growth of 4.7% this fiscal (3.3% in 2007-08).
In the services sector, the setback to GDP growth is envisaged to be much smaller, though here, too, the GDP from community, social and personal services is projected to increase by 9.3% from 6.8% registered last year.
:brick::SugarwareZ-268:
:SugarwareZ-196:
:SugarwareZ-173:
In tune with expectations, the growth of real gross domestic product is officially forecast to decelerate to 7.1% during the current fiscal year from 9% recorded in 2007-08.
All the broad sectors have underperformed, though relatively speaking, the tertiary segment is likely to acquit itself creditably with the incremental growth of 9.6% as against the preceding year's 10.9%.
The Central Statistical Organisation is scheduled to announce the performance of the economy during the third quarter by the end of this month; but based on the advance estimate for the entire year and the fact that in the first half the spurt in GDP at constant prices was of the order of 7.8%, the rate of real GDP would slump to 6.3% during the October 2008-March 2009 period.
This implies a big setback inrelation to the rate notched upduring the same period of the previous fiscal — 8.8%.
If this scenario materialises, it should not be surprising since the ill-effects of the global financial crisis and our own meltdown became manifest only in the second half of 2008-09.
And, indications are that the situation would get worse before any silver lining can be discerned. The stimulus package of the government and the Reserve Bank of India would work, if at all, with a lag; the officially projected figure of GDP growth implicitly rules out any positive fall-out of this twin-pronged attack to counter economic slowdown this fiscal.
The picture is not entirely bleak either. That we could muster an increase of 7.1% in real GDP in the face of a difficult environment — not many countries could boast of a similar record and even China's economic juggernaut has slowed down this year — suggests that we have catapulted to a higher growth orbit.
:lie:
The CSO data also reveal: capital spending has proceeded briskly apace during the ongoing fiscal; at the forecast 34.6%, the rate of gross fixed capital formation is at a peak and marks a considerable leap over the preceding year's 32.5% and 31% two years ago.
With this scale of investment in plant and machinery, the stage is being laid for the economy to pick up even in the near-term. Probably, the rate of capital formation in 2008-09 would have been higher but for the steep increase in the final consumption expenditure of the government —- to 25.9% from 13.7%.
On the other hand, private consumption rose modestly to 15.1% from 12.5%. Sectors that had acted as a drag on the real GDP growth during this year embrace all the three segments, primary, secondary and tertiary.
The real GDP originating from the primary sector is expected to jump by only 2.6% compared with 4.9% in 2007-08. The worst performer was the secondary segment with an incremental spurt of only 4.8% as against 8.1%; within this grouping, manufacturing has fared dismally, with the GDP originating from this important sector slated to go up by a mere 4.1% in contrast to the incremental rise of 8.2% last year.
In construction , the rate of growth is set to decline to 6.5% from 10.1% and in electricity to 4.3% from 5.3%.
The only exception is that the relatively lightweight in the secondary sector —- mining —- which is anticipated to register a faster growth of 4.7% this fiscal (3.3% in 2007-08).
In the services sector, the setback to GDP growth is envisaged to be much smaller, though here, too, the GDP from community, social and personal services is projected to increase by 9.3% from 6.8% registered last year.
:brick::SugarwareZ-268:
:SugarwareZ-196:
