Description
A spreadsheet showing the detailed workings of arriving at the forecast of the Chinese Population.
0.5
1.5
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0
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-1.5 -1 Population growth (annual %) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Moving Average 2 Years Moving Average (2 Years) for growth rate
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
0
1
2
3
-1.5 -1 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Population growth (annual %)
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
0
1
2
3
-1.5 -1 Population growth (annual %) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Cumulative Average Forecast for growth rate
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
0
1
2
3
-1.5 -1 Population growth (annual %) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Exponential Smoothening Forecast for growth rate
-0.5
Population 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 667070000 660330000 665770000 682335000 698355000 715185000 735400000 754550000 774510000 796025000 818315000 841105000 862030000 881940000 900350000 916395000 930685000 943455000 956155000 969005000 981235000 993885000 1008630000 1023310000 1036825000 1051040000 1066790000 1084035000 1101630000 1118650000 1135185000 1150780000 1164970000 1178440000 1191835000 1204855000 1217550000 1230075000 1241935000 1253735000 1262645000
Population growth (annual %) .. -1.010388715 0.823830509 2.48809649 2.347820352 2.409949095 2.826541384 2.60402502 2.645285269 2.777885373 2.800163311 2.78499111 2.487798788 2.309664397 2.08744359 1.782084745 1.559371232 1.372107641 1.346116137 1.343924364 1.262119391 1.289191682 1.483572043 1.455439557 1.320714153 1.371012466 1.498515756 1.616531839 1.623102575 1.544983343 1.478120949 1.37378489 1.233076696 1.156252951 1.136672211 1.092433097 1.053653759 1.028705187 0.964168851 0.95013024 0.710676499
Moving Average 2 Y Moving Average (2 Years)
663700000 663050000 674052500 690345000 706770000 725292500 744975000 764530000 785267500 807170000 829710000 851567500 871985000 891145000 908372500 923540000 937070000 949805000 962580000 975120000 987560000 1001257500 1015970000 1030067500 1043932500 1058915000 1075412500 1092832500 1110140000 1126917500 1142982500 1157875000 1171705000 1185137500 1198345000 1211202500 1223812500 1236005000 1247835000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1271850000 1280400000 1288400000 1296157472 1303720000 1311020000 1318309724 1325639982
0.729025181 0.672249086 0.624804749 0.602101211 0.583457501 0.559936183 0.556034538 0.556034585 0.483134417
2009
1332044605
1258190000 1267247500 1276125000 1284400000 1292278736 1299938736 1307370000 1314664862 1321974853 1328842294
Moving Average 2 Years
Variance
Moving Average (2 Years) for growth rate
Variance for growth rate
Forecast for growth rate
4.2849E+12 3.71911E+14 5.90612E+14 6.17026E+14 8.19677E+14 8.56001E+14 8.72316E+14 9.91935E+14 1.09214E+15 1.15158E+15 1.04458E+15 9.22489E+14 8.04573E+14 6.37563E+14 4.97848E+14 3.96607E+14 3.64237E+14 3.6864E+14 3.48009E+14 3.52125E+14 4.43945E+14 4.86313E+14 4.34931E+14 4.39846E+14 5.22465E+14 6.31014E+14 6.87357E+14 6.66543E+14 6.27252E+14 5.69419E+14 4.8345E+14 4.22919E+14 4.05217E+14 3.8878E+14 3.68832E+14 3.56171E+14 3.28425E+14 3.14353E+14 2.19336E+14
-0.093279103 1.655963499 2.417958421 2.378884723 2.61824524 2.715283202 2.624655145 2.711585321 2.789024342 2.792577211 2.636394949 2.398731593 2.198553994 1.934764168 1.670727988 1.465739436 1.359111889 1.34502025 1.303021877 1.275655536 1.386381862 1.4695058 1.388076855 1.34586331 1.434764111 1.557523797 1.619817207 1.584042959 1.511552146 1.42595292 1.303430793 1.194664823 1.146462581 1.114552654 1.073043428 1.041179473 0.996437019 0.957149546
6.663499951 0.478665905 6.41493E-05 0.200396486 0.000202215 0.004899711 0.023479503 0.00784606 1.6267E-05 0.092889887 0.106752854 0.09690022 0.173446635 0.140919856 0.089174112 0.014309734 0.000230661 0.006872553 0.000191274 0.043229274 0.004768965 0.022138954 0.000291193 0.023302769 0.033039507 0.004300576 0.005600107 0.011219472 0.018979817 0.037201238 0.021661317 0.003363143 0.002919185 0.003708675 0.00196588 0.005930636 0.002144318 0.060748963
664390000 669478333.3 682153333.3 698625000 716313333.3 735045000 754820000 775028333.3 796283333.3 818481666.7 840483333.3 861691666.7 881440000 899561666.7 915810000 930178333.3 943431666.7 956205000 968798333.3 981375000 994583333.3 1008608333 1022921667 1037058333 1051551667 1067288333 1084151667 1101438333 1118488333 1134871667 1150311667 1164730000 1178415000 1191710000 1204746667 1217493333 1229853333 1241915000
1.86596E+14 1.72988E+14 1.50676E+14 1.38238E+14 1.30903E+14 1.22794E+14 1.19678E+14 1.20453E+14 4.90278E+14 5.00618E+14
0.830403369 0.71985084 0.700637134 0.648526917 0.61345298 0.592779356 0.571696842 0.55798536 0.556034561 0.519584501
0.010277537 0.002265927 0.005750551 0.002155346 0.000899729 0.001078674 0.000245308 3.80553E-06 0.005314431 0.269968054
1252771667 1262743333 1271631667 1280216667 1288319157 1296092491 1303632491 1311016575 1318323235 1325331437
Moving Average 3 Years
Variance for growth rate Forecast for growth rate Variance
3.22023E+14 8.33862E+14 1.09109E+15 1.3524E+15 1.46204E+15 1.55749E+15 1.69785E+15 1.87374E+15 2.00898E+15 1.89646E+15 1.71866E+15 1.49447E+15 1.22185E+15 9.68662E+14 7.64246E+14 6.74787E+14 6.53995E+14 6.26501E+14 6.29341E+14 7.42835E+14 8.25221E+14 7.9618E+14 7.90641E+14 8.83972E+14 1.05517E+15 1.17935E+15 1.19014E+15 1.13884E+15 1.04275E+15 9.0591E+14 7.91203E+14 7.34681E+14 6.99074E+14 6.67706E+14 6.41524E+14 5.97395E+14 5.70334E+14 4.29733E+14
0.767179428 1.88658245 2.415288646 2.52810361 2.613505166 2.691950558 2.675731887 2.741111318 2.787679931 2.690984403 2.527484765 2.294968925 2.059730911 1.809633189 1.571187873 1.425865003 1.354049381 1.31738663 1.298411812 1.344961038 1.409401094 1.419908584 1.382388725 1.396747458 1.495353353 1.57938339 1.594872585 1.548735622 1.465629727 1.361660845 1.254371512 1.175333952 1.128452753 1.094253022 1.058264014 1.015509266 0.981001426
2.498425731 0.273912644 0.169128815 0.00576406 0.001009975 0.007384792 0.015483179 0.001925436 0.0899287 0.145404947 0.193636235 0.263050182 0.250359808 0.191428605 0.050657286 0.006714268 0.008451123 0.000794955 0.034284311 0.012205503 0.007865373 0.00239083 0.013485487 0.048305174 0.016319864 0.001183363 0.013630945 0.030607759 0.054080912 0.042192403 0.013853126 0.006872552 0.005594889 0.004296519 0.0088539 0.004274417 0.073075566
3.63983E+14 3.11758E+14 2.81177E+14 2.54109E+14 2.37186E+14 2.22831E+14 2.15421E+14 2.13844E+14 8.83291E+14 8.95493E+14
0.874991863 0.79661064 0.703983589 0.675359672 0.633051682 0.603454487 0.581831632 0.566476074 0.557335102 0.531734513
0.021306272 0.015465796 0.006269289 0.005366802 0.002459583 0.001893843 0.00066549 0.000109025 0.005505742 0.282741593
Cumulative Average
Forecast Variance Forecast for growth rate
667070000 663700000 664390000 668876250 674772000 681507500 689206428.6 697374375 705945000 714953000 724349545.5 734079166.7 743921538.5 753780000 763551333.3 773104062.5 782373529.4 791322500 799997894.7 808448250 816676190.5 824731136.4 832726739.1 840667708.3 848514000 856303461.5 864099259.3 871954107.1 879873965.5 887833166.7 895812258.1 903780000 911694848.5 919540294.1 927320142.9 935029444.4 942665135.1 950228552.6 957708205.1 965108875 972365853.7
0 1.13569E+13 1.9044E+12 1.81138E+14 5.56158E+14 1.13417E+15 2.13385E+15 3.26905E+15 4.70116E+15 6.57267E+15 8.82951E+15 1.14545E+16 1.39496E+16 1.6425E+16 1.87139E+16 2.05323E+16 2.19963E+16 2.31443E+16 2.4385E+16 2.57785E+16 2.70796E+16 2.8613E+16 3.0942E+16 3.33582E+16 3.5461E+16 3.79223E+16 4.10835E+16 4.49783E+16 4.91757E+16 5.32764E+16 5.72993E+16 6.1009E+16 6.41483E+16 6.70291E+16 6.99681E+16 7.28058E+16 7.55617E+16 7.8314E+16 8.07849E+16 8.3305E+16 8.4262E+16
-1.010388715 -0.093279103 0.767179428 1.162339659 1.411861546 1.647641519 1.784267734 1.891894926 1.990338309 2.071320809 2.136199927 2.165499832 2.176589414 2.170221855 2.144346048 2.107785122 2.064509976 2.024599207 1.988774215 1.952441474 1.920858151 1.900981509 1.88161012 1.858239455 1.838750375 1.825664428 1.817918777 1.810961055 1.80178941 1.791000462 1.777541895 1.760527357 1.742216012 1.7244059 1.706349534 1.688219096 1.670394396 1.651809513 1.633817737 1.610739206
979496428.6 986494186 993355681.8 1000084610 1006685380 1013160585 1019517858 1025765249 1031890836 1031890836
8.54706E+16 8.63806E+16 8.70511E+16 8.76591E+16 8.82296E+16 8.87202E+16 8.92766E+16 8.99249E+16 4.33929E+16 4.42967E+16
1.589233986 1.567401012 1.545480168 1.524039738 1.50313791 1.482633525 1.462918653 1.444025235 1.424415218 1.424415218
Exponential Smoothening
Variance for growth rate Forecast Variance
0 0.84109004 2.961555534 1.405364474 0.996178754 1.389804892 0.672002009 0.56759701 0.620230378 0.531211394 0.420929999 0.103876617 0.017708951 0.006852241 0.131233252 0.300757795 0.479420993 0.460339277 0.415831331 0.476544579 0.399002528 0.174230663 0.181621349 0.28893345 0.218778752 0.107026254 0.040556699 0.035290809 0.065949356 0.097893589 0.163019719 0.2782042 0.343352709 0.345430889 0.376893392 0.402673166 0.411765041 0.472849679 0.467428593 0.810112877
663700000 665666500 681501575 697512328.8 714301366.4 734345068.3 753539753.4 773461487.7 794896824.4 817144091.2 839906954.6 860923847.7 880889192.4 899376959.6 915544098 929927954.9 942778647.7 955486182.4 968329059.1 980589703 993220235.1 1007859512 1022537476 1036110624 1050293531 1065965177 1083131509 1100705075 1117752754 1134313388 1149956669 1164219333 1177728967 1191129698 1204168735 1216880937 1229415297 1241309015 1253113701
4.2849E+12 2.77839E+14 2.84038E+14 3.12323E+14 4.45152E+14 4.08239E+14 4.39751E+14 5.09112E+14 5.48411E+14 5.74125E+14 4.89429E+14 4.41679E+14 3.78723E+14 2.89614E+14 2.29247E+14 1.82981E+14 1.78927E+14 1.82758E+14 1.66563E+14 1.76765E+14 2.37461E+14 2.38718E+14 2.04133E+14 2.22886E+14 2.72133E+14 3.26519E+14 3.42194E+14 3.2202E+14 3.03883E+14 2.71149E+14 2.254E+14 2.02227E+14 1.9898E+14 1.88384E+14 1.79058E+14 1.74083E+14 1.56743E+14 1.54405E+14 9.08457E+13
0.739959187 0.80129697 0.847643229 0.849970647 0.845812054 0.851370385 0.822438797 0.788527394 0.886009546 2.028958713
1262168435 1271365922 1279948296 1287977415 1295748469 1303321423 1310635071 1317925991 1325254282 1331705089
9.37327E+13 8.16146E+13 7.14313E+13 6.69133E+13 6.35453E+13 5.92681E+13 5.89003E+13 5.95057E+13 2.42257E+14 2.47321E+14
Exponential Smoothening
Forecast for growth rate Variance
Alpha Value 0.95
-0.093279103 2.35902771 2.34838072 2.406870676 2.805557849 2.614101662 2.643726089 2.771177409 2.798714016 2.785677255 2.502692712 2.319315813 2.099037201 1.797932368 1.571299289 1.382067224 1.347913691 1.34412383 1.266219612 1.288043078 1.473795595 1.456357359 1.327496313 1.368836658 1.492031801 1.610306837 1.622462788 1.548857315 1.481657768 1.379178534 1.240381788 1.160459393 1.13786157 1.094704521 1.055706297 1.030055242 0.967463171 0.950996887
6.663499951 0.000125605 0.003790665 0.176123504 0.040615481 0.000972417 0.017998713 0.000840183 0.000188318 0.088731581 0.03725993 0.053764727 0.10045886 0.056911416 0.039677312 0.001292481 1.59147E-05 0.006724728 0.000527716 0.038231576 0.000336944 0.018399079 0.001893656 0.016816668 0.015500259 0.000163731 0.006003064 0.005003633 0.011636558 0.021345747 0.007077661 0.00056583 0.002063746 0.001685165 0.00072906 0.004341016 0.00030043 0.057753889
0.722692518 0.728708548 0.675072059 0.627318114 0.603362056 0.584452729 0.56116201 0.556290912 0.556047401 0.486780066
4.01026E-05 0.003187671 0.002526803 0.000635892 0.000396191 0.000601061 2.6291E-05 6.57034E-08 0.005316303 0.236954833
doc_627095115.xlsx
A spreadsheet showing the detailed workings of arriving at the forecast of the Chinese Population.
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
0
1
2
3
-1.5 -1 Population growth (annual %) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Moving Average 2 Years Moving Average (2 Years) for growth rate
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
0
1
2
3
-1.5 -1 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Population growth (annual %)
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
0
1
2
3
-1.5 -1 Population growth (annual %) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Cumulative Average Forecast for growth rate
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
0
1
2
3
-1.5 -1 Population growth (annual %) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Exponential Smoothening Forecast for growth rate
-0.5
Population 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 667070000 660330000 665770000 682335000 698355000 715185000 735400000 754550000 774510000 796025000 818315000 841105000 862030000 881940000 900350000 916395000 930685000 943455000 956155000 969005000 981235000 993885000 1008630000 1023310000 1036825000 1051040000 1066790000 1084035000 1101630000 1118650000 1135185000 1150780000 1164970000 1178440000 1191835000 1204855000 1217550000 1230075000 1241935000 1253735000 1262645000
Population growth (annual %) .. -1.010388715 0.823830509 2.48809649 2.347820352 2.409949095 2.826541384 2.60402502 2.645285269 2.777885373 2.800163311 2.78499111 2.487798788 2.309664397 2.08744359 1.782084745 1.559371232 1.372107641 1.346116137 1.343924364 1.262119391 1.289191682 1.483572043 1.455439557 1.320714153 1.371012466 1.498515756 1.616531839 1.623102575 1.544983343 1.478120949 1.37378489 1.233076696 1.156252951 1.136672211 1.092433097 1.053653759 1.028705187 0.964168851 0.95013024 0.710676499
Moving Average 2 Y Moving Average (2 Years)
663700000 663050000 674052500 690345000 706770000 725292500 744975000 764530000 785267500 807170000 829710000 851567500 871985000 891145000 908372500 923540000 937070000 949805000 962580000 975120000 987560000 1001257500 1015970000 1030067500 1043932500 1058915000 1075412500 1092832500 1110140000 1126917500 1142982500 1157875000 1171705000 1185137500 1198345000 1211202500 1223812500 1236005000 1247835000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1271850000 1280400000 1288400000 1296157472 1303720000 1311020000 1318309724 1325639982
0.729025181 0.672249086 0.624804749 0.602101211 0.583457501 0.559936183 0.556034538 0.556034585 0.483134417
2009
1332044605
1258190000 1267247500 1276125000 1284400000 1292278736 1299938736 1307370000 1314664862 1321974853 1328842294
Moving Average 2 Years
Variance
Moving Average (2 Years) for growth rate
Variance for growth rate
Forecast for growth rate
4.2849E+12 3.71911E+14 5.90612E+14 6.17026E+14 8.19677E+14 8.56001E+14 8.72316E+14 9.91935E+14 1.09214E+15 1.15158E+15 1.04458E+15 9.22489E+14 8.04573E+14 6.37563E+14 4.97848E+14 3.96607E+14 3.64237E+14 3.6864E+14 3.48009E+14 3.52125E+14 4.43945E+14 4.86313E+14 4.34931E+14 4.39846E+14 5.22465E+14 6.31014E+14 6.87357E+14 6.66543E+14 6.27252E+14 5.69419E+14 4.8345E+14 4.22919E+14 4.05217E+14 3.8878E+14 3.68832E+14 3.56171E+14 3.28425E+14 3.14353E+14 2.19336E+14
-0.093279103 1.655963499 2.417958421 2.378884723 2.61824524 2.715283202 2.624655145 2.711585321 2.789024342 2.792577211 2.636394949 2.398731593 2.198553994 1.934764168 1.670727988 1.465739436 1.359111889 1.34502025 1.303021877 1.275655536 1.386381862 1.4695058 1.388076855 1.34586331 1.434764111 1.557523797 1.619817207 1.584042959 1.511552146 1.42595292 1.303430793 1.194664823 1.146462581 1.114552654 1.073043428 1.041179473 0.996437019 0.957149546
6.663499951 0.478665905 6.41493E-05 0.200396486 0.000202215 0.004899711 0.023479503 0.00784606 1.6267E-05 0.092889887 0.106752854 0.09690022 0.173446635 0.140919856 0.089174112 0.014309734 0.000230661 0.006872553 0.000191274 0.043229274 0.004768965 0.022138954 0.000291193 0.023302769 0.033039507 0.004300576 0.005600107 0.011219472 0.018979817 0.037201238 0.021661317 0.003363143 0.002919185 0.003708675 0.00196588 0.005930636 0.002144318 0.060748963
664390000 669478333.3 682153333.3 698625000 716313333.3 735045000 754820000 775028333.3 796283333.3 818481666.7 840483333.3 861691666.7 881440000 899561666.7 915810000 930178333.3 943431666.7 956205000 968798333.3 981375000 994583333.3 1008608333 1022921667 1037058333 1051551667 1067288333 1084151667 1101438333 1118488333 1134871667 1150311667 1164730000 1178415000 1191710000 1204746667 1217493333 1229853333 1241915000
1.86596E+14 1.72988E+14 1.50676E+14 1.38238E+14 1.30903E+14 1.22794E+14 1.19678E+14 1.20453E+14 4.90278E+14 5.00618E+14
0.830403369 0.71985084 0.700637134 0.648526917 0.61345298 0.592779356 0.571696842 0.55798536 0.556034561 0.519584501
0.010277537 0.002265927 0.005750551 0.002155346 0.000899729 0.001078674 0.000245308 3.80553E-06 0.005314431 0.269968054
1252771667 1262743333 1271631667 1280216667 1288319157 1296092491 1303632491 1311016575 1318323235 1325331437
Moving Average 3 Years
Variance for growth rate Forecast for growth rate Variance
3.22023E+14 8.33862E+14 1.09109E+15 1.3524E+15 1.46204E+15 1.55749E+15 1.69785E+15 1.87374E+15 2.00898E+15 1.89646E+15 1.71866E+15 1.49447E+15 1.22185E+15 9.68662E+14 7.64246E+14 6.74787E+14 6.53995E+14 6.26501E+14 6.29341E+14 7.42835E+14 8.25221E+14 7.9618E+14 7.90641E+14 8.83972E+14 1.05517E+15 1.17935E+15 1.19014E+15 1.13884E+15 1.04275E+15 9.0591E+14 7.91203E+14 7.34681E+14 6.99074E+14 6.67706E+14 6.41524E+14 5.97395E+14 5.70334E+14 4.29733E+14
0.767179428 1.88658245 2.415288646 2.52810361 2.613505166 2.691950558 2.675731887 2.741111318 2.787679931 2.690984403 2.527484765 2.294968925 2.059730911 1.809633189 1.571187873 1.425865003 1.354049381 1.31738663 1.298411812 1.344961038 1.409401094 1.419908584 1.382388725 1.396747458 1.495353353 1.57938339 1.594872585 1.548735622 1.465629727 1.361660845 1.254371512 1.175333952 1.128452753 1.094253022 1.058264014 1.015509266 0.981001426
2.498425731 0.273912644 0.169128815 0.00576406 0.001009975 0.007384792 0.015483179 0.001925436 0.0899287 0.145404947 0.193636235 0.263050182 0.250359808 0.191428605 0.050657286 0.006714268 0.008451123 0.000794955 0.034284311 0.012205503 0.007865373 0.00239083 0.013485487 0.048305174 0.016319864 0.001183363 0.013630945 0.030607759 0.054080912 0.042192403 0.013853126 0.006872552 0.005594889 0.004296519 0.0088539 0.004274417 0.073075566
3.63983E+14 3.11758E+14 2.81177E+14 2.54109E+14 2.37186E+14 2.22831E+14 2.15421E+14 2.13844E+14 8.83291E+14 8.95493E+14
0.874991863 0.79661064 0.703983589 0.675359672 0.633051682 0.603454487 0.581831632 0.566476074 0.557335102 0.531734513
0.021306272 0.015465796 0.006269289 0.005366802 0.002459583 0.001893843 0.00066549 0.000109025 0.005505742 0.282741593
Cumulative Average
Forecast Variance Forecast for growth rate
667070000 663700000 664390000 668876250 674772000 681507500 689206428.6 697374375 705945000 714953000 724349545.5 734079166.7 743921538.5 753780000 763551333.3 773104062.5 782373529.4 791322500 799997894.7 808448250 816676190.5 824731136.4 832726739.1 840667708.3 848514000 856303461.5 864099259.3 871954107.1 879873965.5 887833166.7 895812258.1 903780000 911694848.5 919540294.1 927320142.9 935029444.4 942665135.1 950228552.6 957708205.1 965108875 972365853.7
0 1.13569E+13 1.9044E+12 1.81138E+14 5.56158E+14 1.13417E+15 2.13385E+15 3.26905E+15 4.70116E+15 6.57267E+15 8.82951E+15 1.14545E+16 1.39496E+16 1.6425E+16 1.87139E+16 2.05323E+16 2.19963E+16 2.31443E+16 2.4385E+16 2.57785E+16 2.70796E+16 2.8613E+16 3.0942E+16 3.33582E+16 3.5461E+16 3.79223E+16 4.10835E+16 4.49783E+16 4.91757E+16 5.32764E+16 5.72993E+16 6.1009E+16 6.41483E+16 6.70291E+16 6.99681E+16 7.28058E+16 7.55617E+16 7.8314E+16 8.07849E+16 8.3305E+16 8.4262E+16
-1.010388715 -0.093279103 0.767179428 1.162339659 1.411861546 1.647641519 1.784267734 1.891894926 1.990338309 2.071320809 2.136199927 2.165499832 2.176589414 2.170221855 2.144346048 2.107785122 2.064509976 2.024599207 1.988774215 1.952441474 1.920858151 1.900981509 1.88161012 1.858239455 1.838750375 1.825664428 1.817918777 1.810961055 1.80178941 1.791000462 1.777541895 1.760527357 1.742216012 1.7244059 1.706349534 1.688219096 1.670394396 1.651809513 1.633817737 1.610739206
979496428.6 986494186 993355681.8 1000084610 1006685380 1013160585 1019517858 1025765249 1031890836 1031890836
8.54706E+16 8.63806E+16 8.70511E+16 8.76591E+16 8.82296E+16 8.87202E+16 8.92766E+16 8.99249E+16 4.33929E+16 4.42967E+16
1.589233986 1.567401012 1.545480168 1.524039738 1.50313791 1.482633525 1.462918653 1.444025235 1.424415218 1.424415218
Exponential Smoothening
Variance for growth rate Forecast Variance
0 0.84109004 2.961555534 1.405364474 0.996178754 1.389804892 0.672002009 0.56759701 0.620230378 0.531211394 0.420929999 0.103876617 0.017708951 0.006852241 0.131233252 0.300757795 0.479420993 0.460339277 0.415831331 0.476544579 0.399002528 0.174230663 0.181621349 0.28893345 0.218778752 0.107026254 0.040556699 0.035290809 0.065949356 0.097893589 0.163019719 0.2782042 0.343352709 0.345430889 0.376893392 0.402673166 0.411765041 0.472849679 0.467428593 0.810112877
663700000 665666500 681501575 697512328.8 714301366.4 734345068.3 753539753.4 773461487.7 794896824.4 817144091.2 839906954.6 860923847.7 880889192.4 899376959.6 915544098 929927954.9 942778647.7 955486182.4 968329059.1 980589703 993220235.1 1007859512 1022537476 1036110624 1050293531 1065965177 1083131509 1100705075 1117752754 1134313388 1149956669 1164219333 1177728967 1191129698 1204168735 1216880937 1229415297 1241309015 1253113701
4.2849E+12 2.77839E+14 2.84038E+14 3.12323E+14 4.45152E+14 4.08239E+14 4.39751E+14 5.09112E+14 5.48411E+14 5.74125E+14 4.89429E+14 4.41679E+14 3.78723E+14 2.89614E+14 2.29247E+14 1.82981E+14 1.78927E+14 1.82758E+14 1.66563E+14 1.76765E+14 2.37461E+14 2.38718E+14 2.04133E+14 2.22886E+14 2.72133E+14 3.26519E+14 3.42194E+14 3.2202E+14 3.03883E+14 2.71149E+14 2.254E+14 2.02227E+14 1.9898E+14 1.88384E+14 1.79058E+14 1.74083E+14 1.56743E+14 1.54405E+14 9.08457E+13
0.739959187 0.80129697 0.847643229 0.849970647 0.845812054 0.851370385 0.822438797 0.788527394 0.886009546 2.028958713
1262168435 1271365922 1279948296 1287977415 1295748469 1303321423 1310635071 1317925991 1325254282 1331705089
9.37327E+13 8.16146E+13 7.14313E+13 6.69133E+13 6.35453E+13 5.92681E+13 5.89003E+13 5.95057E+13 2.42257E+14 2.47321E+14
Exponential Smoothening
Forecast for growth rate Variance
Alpha Value 0.95
-0.093279103 2.35902771 2.34838072 2.406870676 2.805557849 2.614101662 2.643726089 2.771177409 2.798714016 2.785677255 2.502692712 2.319315813 2.099037201 1.797932368 1.571299289 1.382067224 1.347913691 1.34412383 1.266219612 1.288043078 1.473795595 1.456357359 1.327496313 1.368836658 1.492031801 1.610306837 1.622462788 1.548857315 1.481657768 1.379178534 1.240381788 1.160459393 1.13786157 1.094704521 1.055706297 1.030055242 0.967463171 0.950996887
6.663499951 0.000125605 0.003790665 0.176123504 0.040615481 0.000972417 0.017998713 0.000840183 0.000188318 0.088731581 0.03725993 0.053764727 0.10045886 0.056911416 0.039677312 0.001292481 1.59147E-05 0.006724728 0.000527716 0.038231576 0.000336944 0.018399079 0.001893656 0.016816668 0.015500259 0.000163731 0.006003064 0.005003633 0.011636558 0.021345747 0.007077661 0.00056583 0.002063746 0.001685165 0.00072906 0.004341016 0.00030043 0.057753889
0.722692518 0.728708548 0.675072059 0.627318114 0.603362056 0.584452729 0.56116201 0.556290912 0.556047401 0.486780066
4.01026E-05 0.003187671 0.002526803 0.000635892 0.000396191 0.000601061 2.6291E-05 6.57034E-08 0.005316303 0.236954833
doc_627095115.xlsx