Description
Japan was devastated during World War II (1941-45).
1
Post
Post
-
-
war Development of
war Development of
the J apanese Economy
the J apanese Economy
? ? Development, J apanese/Asian Style Development, J apanese/Asian Style ? ?
April 2007
Shigeru T. Otsubo*
GSID, Nagoya University
(w/ inputs fromProf. A.Furukawa, RitsumeikanUniv.)
For Students in the EDP&M Program
For Students in the Economic Development Policy and Management Program
Prof. Shigeru T. OTSUBO
The purpose of this presentation is four-fold:
1) to introduce the macroeconomic development process of the postwar J apanese economy (the
so-called “Miracle Recovery”);
2) to explore the J apan-specific (mostly microeconomic) elements of a market system that
supported her rapid development;
3) to show the need for adjustments in the ‘Japanese-style market system’ in the post-catch-up
era; and
4) to demonstrate the evolution and revolutions in economic systems underlying a development
process.
____________________________________
* The presenter wishes to acknowledge:
i) material inputs provided by Prof. Akira Furukawa, RitsumeikanUniversity, and
ii) valuable comments provided by Ms. Debra J . Saito, Economist, Federal Reserve
Bank of New York.
2
Objectives of This Presentation Objectives of This Presentation
The purpose of this presentation is four-fold:
1) to introduce the macroeconomic development process of the
postwar J apanese economy (the so-called “Miracle
Recovery”);
2) to explore the J apan-specific(mostly microeconomic)
elements of a market systemthat supported her rapid
development;
3) to show the need for adjustments inthe ‘Japanese-style
market system’ of the post-catch-up era; and
4) to demonstrate the evolution and revolutions in economic
systems underlying a development process.
To start with, macroeconomic factors that supported J apan’s strong post-war economic recovery such as high
investment ratios backed by savings mobilization, technology progress, flexible labor supply, and favorable
external conditions will be reviewed. Then, market practices of a long-term nature that were often referred to as
elements of the ‘J apanese-style market system’ are surveyed. These elements include labor market practices,
keiretsu business relations, a main-bank system, and business-government relations that feature detailed
regulations and industrial policies. The long-run macroeconomic policies conducted by the J apanese government
including the ‘medium-term economic plans’ will be introduced.
The post-WWII J apanese economic development was a process of catch-up to the other industrialized economies.
Economic policies and corporate strategies were geared to this utmost mandate in our minds—to catch-up. This
general goal was shared by all economic agents as a national consensus. Macroeconomic policies, particularly
monetary policies, were conducted in order to provide funds to strategic sectors for economic development. The
J apanese-style market system functioned fairly well in strengthening international competitiveness among the
tradable-goods-producing industries. Although the domestic markets were heavilyprotected in the early stages of
J apan’s post-war development, the potential threat of global competition provided sufficient incentives for
productivity growth as J apanese industries looked for export markets. On the other hand, investments in non-
tradable sectors were not sufficiently funded. As a result, development of non-tradable sectors lagged behind.
Elements of the J apanese post-war development system that were competition-restricting in nature functioned well
during her catch-up process.
When the catch-up process was over, however, those competition-restrictive elements became harmful. With the
energy crises of the 1970s, the J apanese economy went into an era of transition. In the 1980s, limited productive
investment opportunities in the domestic market coupled with loose monetary policy in the face of the yen’s rapid
appreciation fueled speculative investments in securities and property markets, creating a financial bubble. After
the bubble burst in the early 1990s, throughout the so-called lost decade, the J apanese economy has been coping
with the mounting needs of fundamental structural reforms.
Where is ‘J apanese-Style Development’ heading now? Let us explore the evolution of J apan’s(socio-) economic
development system.
3
Contents Contents
Part I: Postwar Economic Reforms and Rehabilitation Part I: Postwar Economic Reforms and Rehabilitation
(1945 (1945 – – mid 1950s) mid 1950s)
Part II: High Economic Growth Period Part II: High Economic Growth Period
(mid 1950s (mid 1950s – – early 1970s) early 1970s)
Part III: Socio Part III: Socio- -Economic Outcome of Rapid Growth Economic Outcome of Rapid Growth
( ( – – 1970s 1970s – – ) )
Part IV: Japanese Part IV: Japanese- -Style Market System for a Miracle Recovery Style Market System for a Miracle Recovery
Part V: The Evolution of the Japanese Development Model Part V: The Evolution of the Japanese Development Model
End of the Catching End of the Catching- -Up Process to the Bubble Economy Up Process to the Bubble Economy
( (1970s 1970s – – 1980s) 1980s)
Lost Decade and Beyond Lost Decade and Beyond (1990s (1990s - - ) )
Part VI: Structural Reforms in The Japanese Development Model Part VI: Structural Reforms in The Japanese Development Model
Part VII: Aging Japan, Aging Asia Part VII: Aging Japan, Aging Asia
Part VIII: Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems Part VIII: Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems
(References)
On Development History, J apanese System
1. TakafusaNakamura and KonosukeOdaka, eds. Economic History of Japan 1914-1955 – A Dual
Structure. Oxford Univ. Press, 1999.
2. TakafusaNakamura. The Postwar Japanese Economy – Its Development and Structure, 1937-1994.
2nd ed. Univ. of Tokyo Press, 1995.
3. Ian Inkster. Japanese Industrialization – Historical and Cultural Perspectives. Routledge, 2001.
4. J uroTeranishi. Evolution of the Economic System in Japan. Edward Elgar, 2005.
5. Kozo Yamamura, ed. The Economic Emergence of Modern Japan. Cambridge Univ. Press, 1997.
6. Hirohisa Kohamaand MachikoWatanabe. Economic Development in Postwar Japan (in J apanese).
Nihon HyoronSha,1996.
7. Yoshiro Miwa and J . Mark Ramseyer. The Fable of the Keiretsu -- Urban Legends of the J apanese
Economy. Univ. of Chicago Press, 2006
8. Yukio Noguchi. Economics of the Bubble: What happened to the Japanese Economy (in J apanese).
Nikkei, 1992.
9. Yukio Noguchi. The 1940 Regime: Goodbye War-time Economy (in J apanese). Toyo Keizai Shinpo
Sha, 1995.
10. Yukio Noguchi. Business-led Revolution in Japanese Economy: From Big Organization to Small
Organization (in J apanese). Nikkei, 2002.
On Industrial Policy
11. MikioSumiya, ed. A History of Japanese Trade and Industry Policy. Oxford Univ. Press,2000.
12. Chalmers J ohnson. MITI and the Japanese Miracle – The Growth of Industrial Policy 1925-1975.
Stanford Univ. Press, 1982.
4
Human loss – 1.85 million (2.8 million) deaths
Material loss – 25% of national wealth
Industrial production dropped to 1/10 of the
prewar level.
Hyper-inflation with commodity shortage
Devastation during WWII Devastation during WWII
(1941 (1941- -1945) 1945)
Devastation during WWII
J apan was devastated during World War II (1941-45). The human loss mounted to 1.85 million (about 4% of
the entire population) and 680 thousand injured or missing. The material loss mounted to about 25% of
national wealth excluding military stock (Economic StabilizationBoard report of 1949). Another estimate of
the death toll was 2.8 million (Heibonsha Encyclopaedia, 1989).
Industrial production dropped just after the war to one-tenth of the pre-war level (24% of the pre-war level in
consumer products and only 8% in industrial input products). An increase in budgetary expenditure such as
veterans’ payment and compensation for the war damage, together with a commodity shortage, caused
hyper-inflation.
5
Successes and Failures in J apanese Economic Development
Phase I (1945-1960s)
Catching-up process
-- Post-war
democratization
-- Common goal
-- Savings shortage &
directed allocation
-- Japanese-style
Market system
- Employment
practices
- Main bank system
- Corporate governance
- Gov’t intervention &
public policies
Phase I (1945-1960s)
Catching-up process
-- Post-war
democratization
-- Common goal
-- Savings shortage &
directed allocation
-- Japanese-style
Market system
- Employment
practices
- Main bank system
- Corporate governance
- Gov’t intervention &
public policies
Phase II (1970s–’80s)
Failure to reform &
“bubble” economy
-- “Front-runner”
necessity for
competitive market
-- Failure to transform
the system
-- Expansive behavior
by businesses/banks
-- Macroeconomic
policy to cope with
yen’s appreciation
-- ‘Bubble’
Phase II (1970s–’80s)
Failure to reform &
“bubble” economy
-- “Front-runner”
necessity for
competitive market
-- Failure to transform
the system
-- Expansive behavior
by businesses/banks
-- Macroeconomic
policy to cope with
yen’s appreciation
-- ‘Bubble’
Phase III (1990s - )
Long stagnation
& beyond
-- Excess capacity
-- NPL and financial
crisis
-- Confidence crisis
-- Deflation
-- Expansive macro-
economic policy
- Zero interest
- Budget deficit
-- Structural reform
- Regulatory
- Financial, etc.
Phase III (1990s - )
Long stagnation
& beyond
-- Excess capacity
-- NPL and financial
crisis
-- Confidence crisis
-- Deflation
-- Expansive macro-
economic policy
- Zero interest
- Budget deficit
-- Structural reform
- Regulatory
- Financial, etc.
Phases of the Postwar Japanese Development
Phase I: Postwar Reconstruction and Catch-up
Phase I of the economic development after WWII was from 1945 through the 1960s. A common purpose shared by
business, household and the government sectors was to catch up with North American and European industrial economies.
The collective and concerted actions coordinated by the government, often competition-restrictive, were effective in
achieving this goal.
A major obstacle on the macroeconomic front was the shortage of savings. The government created a system to mobilize
and direct funds to key industries for rapid economic development. On a microeconomic front, the so-called ‘J apanese-
style market system ’ was established, which emphasized building long-running relationships between economic agents.
Stable relationships were built on a foundation including (1) the long-term employment system, (2) corporate governance
built on cross-share holdings among businesses and with other financial institutions, and (3) the main-bank system. And
together with active public policies/guidance, they played an important role in J apan’s ‘catching up’ with industrialized
economies.
Phase II: Era of Transition and the ‘Bubble Economy’
In phase II (early 1970s—late 1980s), the J apanese economy caught up with other industrial economies in the world. The
clear, common goal had been achieved. J apanese business and household sectors should have changed their behavior
from the one based on collective actions to the more autonomous one of coping with their own risks under a more
competitive environment. However, we failed to change upon the celebrated success with our old system. Collective
business practices and government interventions largely remained. With a lack of innovative investment opportunities and
poor corporate governance, business firms and financial institutions rushed into speculation in financial and real estate
markets, creating the ‘bubble’ economy. Expansive macroeconomic policies adopted in order to cope with yen’s rapid
appreciation in the middle of the 1980s also served to fuel the speculative bubble. Then, the ‘bubble’ burst in the face of
restrictive monetary policies, first in the stock market in 1990, and then in the property market in 1991.
Phase III Lost Decade and Beyond
In phase III (the 1990s and on), the J apanese economy struggled with the aftermath of the burst ‘bubble’. Excessive
investment, excessive employment, and excessive lending and over-borrowing that had piled up during the bubble
development period had resulted in excess capacity and mounting non-performing loans. The necessary stock adjustment
of this ‘excess’, however, has been delayed in consideration of job security. This delay in adjustment resulted in long-
lasting stagnation, persistent deflation, and financial crises, in spite of massive expansion of government expenditures and
the money supply. This, in turn, created a public domestic debt overhang. In order for the J apanese economy to get out of
this trap, a comprehensive strategy and bold structural reforms are indispensable. The J apanese economy is in the middle
of a multi-pronged fight to (1) stop deflation, (2) reform the public sector and its budget, (3) resolve problems associated
with non-performing loans and stabilize the financial system, and (4) to stimulate business sector confidence through
regulatory reforms, tax reforms, and a conducive environment for technology development.
The J apanese society, facing a rapid aging of its now-declining population, is now also confronted with reform needs in its
social security system.
6
Part I: Postwar Economic Reforms Part I: Postwar Economic Reforms
and Rehabilitation and Rehabilitation
(1945 (1945 – – mid 1950s) mid 1950s)
7
Zaibatsu dissolution
Dissolution of
Zaibatsu conglomerates;
Prevention of economic
power concentration
Zaibatsu Zaibatsu dissolution dissolution
Dissolution of
Zaibatsu conglomerates;
Prevention of economic
power concentration
Agrarian reform
Elimination of
tenant system;
Growing #of
independent farmers
Agrarian reform Agrarian reform
Elimination of
tenant system;
Growing #of
independent farmers
Democratization of the Economy Democratization of the Economy
Fair market rules
Anti-trust Law;
Securities Exchange
Law; etc.
Fair market rules Fair market rules
Anti-trust Law;
Securities Exchange
Law; etc.
1.1 Post 1.1 Post- -war Economic Reforms war Economic Reforms
Labor market reform
Legalization of labor
movement;
Establishment of
labor unions
Labor market reform Labor market reform
Legalization of labor
movement;
Establishment of
labor unions
Postwar Reforms
The allied force (General Headquarters =GHQ) first tried to democratize J apan on both political and
economic fronts. The GHQ believed that a concentration of economic power in a limited number of
companies, financial institutions and landlords’ hands, coupled with the lack of democratic forces such
as labor unions, had been the hotbed of militarism in prewar J apan. Thus, the so-called ‘economic
democratization’ reforms were carried out first.
1. Zaibatsu dissolution (1945): Zaibatsu were big conglomerates of major companies and banks, often
controlled by a share-holding company. The most powerful ones were Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, and
Yasuda. To eliminate concentration of economic power, zaibatsu were dissolved and share holding
companies were prohibited. Fair Trade Law and the Economic Power Excessive Concentration
Elimination Law was enacted in 1947.
2. Fair market rules (1947): American-style market rules were imported. The most important laws were the
Anti-trust Law and the Securities Exchange Law, enacted in order to secure market competition and
transparency.
3. Agricultural reform (1945): The government purchased land from absentee landlords and all the tenant
land in excess of one hectare, and sold them to tenant farmers at nominal prices. The percentage of tenant
land dropped from 46% to10%. The number of Independent farmers increased.
4. Labor market reform (1945): Through an enactment of the Labour Union Law (1945), Labour Relations
Adjustment Law, and Labour Standards Law (1947), the organization of labor unions was promoted and
their labor movements were legalized.
5. Education reform (1947): The compulsory education was extended from 6 to 9 years.
8
The US’s strategy changes to allowre-industrialization
Economic reconstruction Economic reconstruction
Priority production strategy Priority production strategy
Priority sectors:
Steel, coal mining, electricity,
shipbuilding, marine transportation,
railways, chemical, etc.
J oseph Dodge’s stabilization policy in 1949
-- Macroeconomic tightening
-- Balanced budget on a consolidated basis
-- Forced rationalization in private businesses
-- Unification of yen exchange rate to 360J PY/1USD
Severe
recession
1 1- -2 Economic Reconstruction and Re 2 Economic Reconstruction and Re- -industrialization industrialization
Favorable international conditions
-- Sustained world economic growth
-- International trade and investment development
Cold War
Korean War
Priority Production Strategy
In 1946, high inflation persisted despite a contingent measure restricting surplus purchasing power. To
rapidly reconstruct the economy despite shortages of commodities and investment funds, the government
in 1947 implemented a strategy to concentrate resources in priority industrial sectors such as steel, coal
mining, electricity, shipbuilding, marine and railway transportation, and chemical fertilizer. Industrial
production rapidly recovered from 31% of the pre-war level in J anuary 1947 to 80% of that level, in April
1949.
Change in the US Strategy toward Japanese Recovery
In the early stage of recovery, the GHQ’s stance was to prevent J apan from regaining military power. As
such, a full recovery of heavy industries was not necessarily permitted in the beginning. However, as the
Cold War worsened, the US attitude gradually changed to allow J apan to re-industrialize and to become an
independent economy. In 1949, a series of severe belt-tightening policies wasconducted by Joseph Dodge,
a US banker who came to J apan as an economic adviser to the GHQ. Policies included enforcement of a
balanced budget, and reduction of both price subsidies and inflation, i.e. stabilization. As a result, the
economy fell into a serious slump. In 1949, a fixed exchange rate of 360 yen per US dollar was introduced
in order to spur J apan’s international trade. This exchange rate wasbroadly perceived as overvalued given
the weak competitiveness of J apan’s business sector then.
In 1949, a major reform in the tax system was also carried out following recommendations made by a
team of experts headed by Carl Shoup. This reform focused mostly on direct taxes such as personal
income tax.
This tight policy package strengthened the business environment and in retrospect, provided the basis for
economic development. However in the short run, it pushed the J apanese economy into a severe recession.
Favorable External Conditions
The Korean War, which broke out in 1950, resulted in high military demand and triggered rapid
reconstruction of the J apanese economy. By 1952, Japan restored the real GDP level to a level
comparable with that of 1935. After the Korean War ended (1950-53), the J apanese economy fully
benefited from the sustained development of the world economy.
9
Introduction of new technology to fill the gap
– Steel (strip mills); shipbuilding (electric
welding); chemical fertilizers; synthetic
fiber; consumer electric appliances, etc.
– “ First machine is imported and the second
machine is produced domestically”
‘Improved Engineering’
Rural-urban transfer of young workforce
‘Shudan Shushoku’
Industrial Policy
– Business Rationalization Promotion Act
(1952)
– Government-owned financial institutions –
JDB, ExIm Bank, Small Business Credit
Corporation
– Establishment of long-term credit banks
1.3 From rehabilitation to enhancing 1.3 From rehabilitation to enhancing
competitiveness competitiveness
Domestic Factors
Domestic factors that enabled high growth included a high investment ratio supported by savings mobilization,
migration of the younger-generation workforce from the rural area to cities by ‘collective employment’ (Shudan
Shushoku, 1954-1975), and high productivity growth brought about by the introduction of foreign technology and
‘improved engineering’. Shudan Shushoku increased workforce of 15-24 years of age in Tokyo by 1 million during
1955-1965.
Industrial Development and Government’s Industrial Policy
An expansion of business investment in the early 1950s shows that J apanese businesses shifted from phases of
rehabilitation to one of strengthening international competitiveness through rationalization of production. Foreign
technology was actively absorbed in key industries such as stripmills in steelmaking, electric welding in
shipbuilding, and other technologies for chemical fertilizers and heavy electric machinery. New industries such as
the automobile, synthetic fibre and consumer electric machinery also started to bring in new technology that
promoted autonomous growth.
Government policies supported business development. The BusinessRationalization Promotion Act of 1952
provided a special depreciation scheme for modernizing equipment in key industries. Government created financial
institutions such as the J apan Development Bank, the ExImBank, and the Medium and Small Business Credit
Corporation. The long-term credit bank system was introduced in order to provide public funds and long-term loans
to the business sector.
Return to the International Community
In 1951, the San Francisco Peace Treaty was co-signed with the major allied-force countries, and J apan regained
independence. J apan joined the United Nations in 1956. J apan also joined the International Monetary Fund and the
International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (the World Bank) in 1953, and the General Agreement on
Tariffs and Trade in 1955. In the case of the IMF, first J apan joined as an Article 14 country that allowed restrictive
foreign exchange transactions for balance of payment purposes, and later became an Article 8 country in 1964. In
GATT, J apan initially joined as an Article 12 country with possible trade restrictions for balance of payment
purposes. The J apanese economy was under BOP constraints up until the mid 1960s.
10
1 1- -4 Coping with Savings Shortage 4 Coping with Savings Shortage
Policy measures to cope with savings shortage
Targeted policy to allocate funds to key sectors
-- Relying on financial intermediaries for capital supply
-- FILP and public financial institutions
-- BOJ monetary expansion through “window guidance”
“over-lending”, “over-borrowing”
Policy measures to cope with savings shortage Policy measures to cope with savings shortage
Targeted policy to allocate funds to key sectors
-- Relying on financial intermediaries for capital supply
-- FILP and public financial institutions
-- BOJ monetary expansion through “window guidance”
“over-lending”, “over-borrowing”
Source? SNA
Investment ratio =(private and
public investment) / GDP
Household savings ratio =(house-
hold savings) / (household
disposable income)
Prior to 1955, the older SNA
level was adjusted using 1955-60
average difference between the
two series
0
10
20
30
40
50
1
9
5
1
1
9
5
3
1
9
5
5
1
9
5
7
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
7
1
9
6
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
Household savings ratio
Investment ratio
% %
Fund Shortage and Increased Role of Banking (indirect finance)
During the reconstruction phase of the postwar J apanese development, the biggest macroeconomic challenge was a
shortage of funds for investment or a shortage of savings. In the early 1950s, the household saving rate was around
10% according to the System of National Account (SNA) data. Thefigure was slightly higher in household surveys
(than in employee households). Like many other developing economies, J apan faced the risk of falling into the
“savings shortage trap” where a shortage of savings leads to a shortage of industrial funds, which in turn leads to a
limited production capacity, to stagnant income, and finally comes back to aggravate the savings shortage.
In order to cope with this shortage, J apanese government adopted targeted policies and directed funds to key
industries for dynamic economic growth, rather than relying on amarket-oriented allocation of the limited funds.
First, the government relied on financial intermediary institutions to supply industrial funds, rather than
relying on capital markets. To this end, three big long-term credit banks were established (along with large
commercial banks) in order to provide long-term credit to these key industrial sectors. (Refer to the slide for
the Main-bank System on page 36.)
Second, the government introduced the fiscal investment and loanprogram (FILP) in order to channel public
funds to key industries through newly established public financial institutions such as the J apan Development
Bank and small business loan corporations. The major sources of funds were postal savings and, at the initial
stage, collateral funds established with earnings from the salesof products supplied by the US government as
commodity aid.
Third, the Bank of J apan (BOJ ) supplied high-powered money to the private sector by providing loans to
private financial institutions through ‘window guidance’. Commercial banks borrowed money from the BOJ
and actively lent to business sectors, resulting in low capital ratios (‘over-lending’). Business sectors
borrowed heavily from financial institutions, again resulting inlow capital ratios (‘over-borrowing’).
Then, the social system was formed/geared for increased savings: long working days, a six-day work week, and poor
social security provision.
11
Low interest rates and credit rationing
Regulation -- Extraordinary Interest Control Law (1948)
Window guidance -- official discount rate kept low
Interbank‘call’ market – higher call rates - incentives for
small/regional banks to provide funds for larger banks
Avoidance of inflation in spite of monetary expansion
1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
100 billion yen
Call rate (right)
BOJ loan (left)
Discount rate (right)
Interest rates
and BOJ loans
Source: Tomita p.110
1 1- -5 Growth without Inflation; Mobilization of Funds 5 Growth without Inflation; Mobilization of Funds
Growth without Inflation
This type of monetary expansion could normally lead to rapid inflation. However in J apan, overall inflationary pressure
did not emerge. This was the case as the long-term credits provided were immediately used for real business investment,
leading to an expansion of production capacity in a very short period.
‘Over-lending’, or a persistently low capital adequacy ratio, ought to increase bankruptcy risks of financial institutions.
However, the government policy protected the banking sector frombankruptcy and from cut-throat competition. Banks
that faced financial difficulty were merged with healthier banksbefore their collapse. This policy scheme was often
labeled as a ‘convoy system’, with the Ministry of Finance acting as commander-in-chief. As such, from the 1950s to
the early 1990s, no major bankruptcies in the banking sector occurred in the J apanese economy.
Artificially Low Interest Rates and Concentration of Funds
Interest rates were controlled at levels lower than potential market rates (open financial markets were underdeveloped).
The ‘Extraordinary’ Interest Rate Control Law, enacted in 1948 to control increasesin interest rates during the post-war
hyper-inflation, survived 40 years and kept deposit and loan rates at low levels. Together with this interest rate
regulation, the official discount rate (the rate of BOJ loans tocommercial banks) was also kept at a lower level.
Artificially low interest rates amidst a shortage of savings naturally bring about excess demand for loans, that in turn
calls for credit rationing. ‘Window guidance’ was adopted to compel commercial banks to provide funds to key
industrial sectors, and to restrict an extension of the loan supply when monetary policy had to be tightened.
The only liberalized financial market was the inter-bank ‘call loan’ market where financial institutions dealt short-term
money with each other in order to cover temporary shortages of funds. The ‘call’ rate was regularly higher than the
official discount rate, and therefore regional banks and other small-size financial institutions had incentives to provide
their surplus deposit to the call market rather than supplying loans to local and small businesses at less favorable terms.
12
Part II: High Economic Growth Period Part II: High Economic Growth Period
(mid 1950s (mid 1950s – – early 1970s) early 1970s)
13
Dual structure -- lower productivity and poorer working conditions
in small businesses, consumption-goods and service sectors
National consensus -- trickle-down strategy
8.8
9.2
4.5 4.4
3.3
4.9
1.5
1.0
1.4
11.1
1
9
5
6
-
6
0
1
9
6
1
-
6
5
1
9
6
6
-
7
0
1
9
7
1
-
7
5
1
9
7
6
-
8
0
1
9
8
1
-
8
5
1
9
8
6
-
9
0
1
9
9
1
-
9
5
1
9
9
6
-
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
-
2
0
0
5
Average real
growth rate
Source: National Accounts
2 2- -1 Entering Virtuous Cycle 1 Entering Virtuous Cycle
Period of rapid growth (1955--1970)
Rapid-Growth Period and the ‘Dual Structure’
The J apanese economy eventually entered an economic growth process with positively reinforcing feedback:
demand expansion—production expansion—increases in income—consumption expansion—further income
expansion—increases in savings—-investment growth and an expansion of production capacity. The rapid
growth period from the late 1950s to1960s was thus created. From 1955 to 1972, the J apanese real GDP
grew by an annual average rate of 9.3%.
This virtuous cycle particularly benefited big businesses in heavy industries such as metal, chemicals, energy
and machinery. Scarce funds were preferentially allocated to industries with a lower capital cost. On the
other hand, although lower prices of capital goods as a result of the massive investment in machinery
industries partly facilitated investments, small businesses and consumer-goods and services sectors suffered
from shortages of investment funds.
This scheme was often criticized as having overly-favored key industries and big businesses. However, this
strategy was generally accepted by most J apanese as a ‘trickle-down approach’ to raise incomes and living
standards in J apan. In forming this consensus, government’s medium-term economic plans, particularly the
National Income Doubling Plan of 1960, contributed significantly.
Although it was generally a big success, this approach also created the problems associated with ‘dual
structure’. A world of difference in productivity, wages and in other working conditions emerged between
the favored industries and those that were not. There was a big gap in competitiveness between heavy
industries and big businesses on one hand, and consumer-goods and service-related sectors on the other. The
cause of poor performance in the latter sectors was twofold: a shortage of investments and a lack of market
competition. Even today, this continues to be a major challenge to the J apanese economy in the process of
major structural reforms.
14
Demand side
– Shortage of production capacity – investment
demand
– New consumer durables – consumer demand
– Increased Quality and undervalued exchange rate –
export expansion
Supply side
– Innovation seeds from overseas
– Growth of working-age population and its migration
– Increase in household savings
– Rise in education attainment to enhance human
capacity
National Income Doubling Plan (1961-70): great success
2 2- -2 2 Demand and supply side factors for rapid growth
Demand- and Supply-Side Factors for this Rapid Growth
Demand-side factors:
-- Due to rapid growth and the emergence of new products, the expansion of production capacity was always
lagging behind that of demand. There was massive demand for fixed investment, and investment called for
further investment.
-- Household consumption started to drive the economy as consumer durables rapidly spread into households.
First wave: monochrome TVs, washing machines, and refrigerators. Second wave: colour TVs, air-
conditioners, and automobiles.
-- Demand for J apanese exports grew thanks to higher international competitiveness due to gains in product
quality, and to the undervalued exchange rate.
Supply-side factors:
-- There were ample applicable seeds of product/business innovation that J apan gained from overseasdue to
the technological gap with industrial economies.
-- The growth rate of the working-age population was high. There was a massive migration of young-
generation workers from rural to urban areas.
-- The household savings ratio rose to finance investment growth.
-- Higher education attainment supported rapid growth in human capital.
In 1960, the Cabinet of Prime Minister HayatoIkeda adopted the National Income Doubling Plan and
projected an annual growth rate of 7.2% between 1960 and 1970, aiming for a doubling of real GDP in this
decade. The J apanese economy had in fact grown at a much faster pace.
15
2 2- -3 Rapid growth as a 3 Rapid growth as a “ “catching catching- -up up” ” process process
Catching-up process Goal of development Consensus formation
Advantage of latecomers
-- introduction of technology and process innovation
-- lower business risks
-- incentive for innovation and quality control through
competition in foreign market
Advantage in Catching-up as a Latecomer
The fact that the J apanese economy was in the process of ‘catching-up’ with industrialized economies was a
big factor that enabled sustained rapid growth. This ‘catching-up’ process came with the following
“latecomers’ advantages”.
First of all, it facilitated technological progress. The import of foreign technology was given high priority in the
allotment of foreign currency (limited foreign reserves). Manufacturing technicians and workers had sufficient
technical skills and knowledge for them to utilize, emulate, and improve imported technologies (‘improved
engineering’). Manufacturing companies also had both the willingness and the ability to absorbsuch technical
progress (Ohkawaand Rosovsky:1973, Chapter 9).
Secondly, foreign business was a good reference for the future development of J apanese business and
consumer demand, so J apanese companies could effectively avoid market risks associated with new business
operations.
Thirdly, for manufacturing companies, sales success in the markets of advanced economies was a powerful
demonstration of their products’ quality and competitiveness in the domestic market. Thus, they made massive
efforts to export their products, which resulted in productivity enhancement, new technology development,
quality control, and strengthening of non-price competitiveness that often offset increases in labor costs.
16
2 2- -4 Industrial Development and Market Opening 4 Industrial Development and Market Opening
Protection of infant industries
through foreign currency quota
“Ceiling of the balance
of payment”
2000
1994
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
A
g
r
i
c
u
l
t
u
r
e
,
e
t
c
.
Manufac.
M
a
t
e
r
i
a
l
M
a
c
h
i
n
e
r
y
M
i
s
c
.
C
o
n
s
t
r
u
c
t
i
o
n
U
t
i
l
i
t
y
/
T
&
T
/
f
i
n
a
n
c
e
D
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n
/
s
e
r
v
i
c
e
G
o
v
t
.
s
e
r
v
i
c
e
(estimate)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1
9
5
2
1
9
5
3
1
9
5
4
1
9
5
5
1
9
5
6
1
9
5
7
1
9
5
8
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
2
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
6
1
9
6
7
1
9
6
8
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
2
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
6
1
9
7
7
1
9
7
8
1
9
7
9
1
9
8
0
Current account balance (% of GDP)
Protection of infant industries through foreign currency quota
Export of Labor-Intensive Products
Since the end of World War II, J apanese tradable industries werehighly protected from international
competition. Imports, foreign exchange transactions and inward foreign direct investment were all tightly
regulated. Trade barriers took the form of foreign exchange quotas as well as tariffs and other non-tariff
barriers.
The trade structure then was to export labor-intensive manufacturing products in order to earn foreign
currency revenue (foreign exchange) and then to import capital- and technology-intensive manufacturing
products and raw materials.
Balance of Payments Constraint
Until the first half of the 1960s, a major constraint to J apanese economic growth was ‘the ceiling on the
balance of payment’. An expansion of the Japanese economy triggered an import boost and thus created and
widened the trade deficit. The BOJ had to then tighten monetary policy in order to protect the value of the
J apanese yen (the yen was at a fixed exchange rate). Monetary tightening, executed in the forms of a
reduction in the loan supply to private financial institutions and an increase in the official discount rate, first
effectively reduced banking credit extended to the business sector that highly relied upon bank loans, which
put a brake on fixed investment, and thereby decelerated growth, thus leading to an improvement in external
balance. Once the monetary policy was loosened, the J apanese economy rushed into the next expansion
phase with a quick recovery in credit supply and investment.
17
2 2- -5 Market Opening in the 1960s 5 Market Opening in the 1960s
Market opening on a scheduled, step-by-step basis
Foreign trade
1960: Trade Liberal-
ization Program
“Positive list” ?
“Negative list”
Foreign currency quota ?
Automatic approval
Import liberalization ratio
1959 1966
34% 93%
Foreign
exchange
1960
Restoring yen’s
convertibility
1964
Accepting
IMF Code
Article 8
Inward FDI
1967~1970
Basic Program for
Capital Account
Liberalization
1970
Majority foreign
ownership was
allowed in
80% of
industries
Market Opening during the 1960s
During the 1950s, as J apanese exports increased, industrialized countries gradually stepped up the pressure
on the J apanese government to open its market. In the 1960s, theJ apanese government initiated the process
of market opening in a strategic (scheduled, step-by-step) manner.
Trade liberalization was conducted by changing the foreign currency quota for the import of restricted
commodities (FA, fund allocation) to an automatic approval (AA). In 1960 the government adopted a
comprehensive plan to liberalize foreign trade that changed a ground rule from ‘restriction as a rule,
openness as an exception’ to the contrary. The ratio of liberalized import lines rose from 34% in 1959 to
93% in 1966.
With regard to foreign exchange transactions, the yen regained convertibility in 1960. In 1964, J apan
accepted the IMF Code Article 8 that ruled out foreign exchange restrictions for the purpose of balance of
payments stability.
As to capital flows, the law on foreign capital of 1950 stipulated that inward FDI should be allowed only if it
contributed to an improvement in balance of payments. In reality, the majority of inward FDI applications
were not approved as they were perceived to bear risks of harming the J apanese business sector. In 1967, a
basic program for capital liberalization was adopted. This program was implemented by 1970, again in a
step-by-step manner. By 1970, majority foreign ownership was allowed in 80% of J apanese industries.
18
2 2- -6 Changes in J apan 6 Changes in J apan’ ’s Comparative Advantage s Comparative Advantage
Changes in trade structure
and positive adjustments
Export-led growth?
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1
9
5
3
1
9
5
4
1
9
5
5
1
9
5
6
1
9
5
7
1
9
5
8
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
2
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
6
1
9
6
7
1
9
6
8
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
2
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
6
1
9
7
7
1
9
7
8
1
9
7
9
1
9
8
0
Business investment
Export
% point
Contribution to GDP growth
Source: SNA
1953-55: older SNA
95
90
80
70
60
1950
Export structure
F
o
o
d
T
e
x
t
i
l
e
M
e
t
a
l
O
t
h
e
r
m
a
t
e
r
i
a
l
M
o
t
o
r
v
e
h
i
c
l
e
O
t
h
e
r
m
a
n
u
f
a
c
.
M
a
c
h
i
n
e
r
y
Changing Comparative Advantage
As wages went up in the J apanese labor market, labor-intensive manufacturing products such as textile
products gradually lost their price competitiveness. On the other hand, price increases in capital-intensive
and technology-intensive products were mostly avoided as wage increases in these sectors were largely
offset by healthy productivity gains. Their prices relative to those of foreign products showed a declining
trend, thanks in part to yen’s fixed exchange rate. Thus, the structure of comparative advantage in J apanese
manufacturing sector had completely shifted. Capital- and technology-intensive products were also products
that faced elastic demand (high income elasticity). As a result, the structure of J apanese exports changed
dramatically.
Given this rapid shift in comparative advantage, industries such as textiles, coal mining, shipbuilding, and
after the first oil crisis, aluminum, exited or slimmed down substantially. Positive adjustments were made in
expanding industries. The chemicals industry, originally concentrated on production of fertilizers, shifted its
focus to basic chemicals, and then to ‘fine’ chemicals. Cement and other related industries moved to
production of synthetic materials such as ‘fine’ ceramics. Textile industries turned themselves into
multinational fashion industries.
Export as an Engine for Growth?
Looking at the developments in GDP components, exports or external demand had not necessarily played a
major role quantitatively in Japan’s economic growth, at least until the first half of the 1960s. On the macro
front, business investment had been the major engine for J apan’s growth. The contribution of export
expansion– ‘trade (export) as an engine for growth’ – was made through its microeconomic effects instead,
by stimulating innovation and productivity growth in J apan’s manufacturing sector.
19
2 2- -7 Balanced Budget and Issuance of 7 Balanced Budget and Issuance of Gov Gov’ ’t t Bond Bond
Balanced budget
1947: Budget Law -- Prohibiting “deficit financing bonds”
1949: Attainment of balanced budget on consolidated basis
Bond issuance
1965 recession
Perception of the end of
investment-led growth
Issuance of deficit
covering bond
1966~
“Construction” bond
0
10
20
30
40
50
1
9
6
2
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
8
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
7
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
8
Central gov’t bond issuance
(% of total revenue, general account)
FY
%
Balanced Budget to Bond Financing
The hyper-inflation after the war was partly attributable to the J apanese government’s massive budget deficit
and its direct financing by the BOJ . In order to control inflation and to prepare for a self-reliant economic
reconstruction, the 1947 Budget Law prohibited the issuance of bonds to finance the current deficit—the so-
called ‘deficit financing (covering) bonds’. Initially, there were loopholes in budgeting due to the existence
of special accounts. Since the FY1949 budget, J apan’s national budget was balanced on a consolidated basis
(that is, including special accounts). Until the first half of 1960s, the budget was kept neutral to the
macroeconomy.
The recession in 1965 turned out to be the first post-war economic slump against which monetary loosening
was not effective. A serious question was raised regarding whether the post-war rapid growth process driven
by business investment had ended. Pessimistic views predicted persistent shortages of final demandunless it
was supported by government demand. In 1965, due to a shortage of tax revenue, the government was forced
to issue deficit financing bonds, enacting an extraordinary law to allow it. Since then, in order to fill gaps in
final demand while conforming to the Budget Law, the Japanese government has continued to issue bonds
under the name of ‘construction bonds’, to finance development of social overhead capital. The size of bond
financing (deficit financing by bonds) continued to be small until the mid-1970s.
20
14 economic plans officially adopted
Economic plans in a free market economy
‘Indicative-type’ rather than ‘Command-type’
Sharing of information between the government and
the public (business and household sectors)
-- Medium-run development scenario the government assumes,
including target economic growth rate and other
indicators
-- Medium-run economic policy stance and policy priority,
including allocation of funds for investment in
social overhead capital
-- Economic behavior of household and business sectors
that the government deems desirable
Economic plans in a free market economy
‘Indicative-type’ rather than ‘Command-type’
Sharing of information between the government and
the public (business and household sectors)
-- Medium-run development scenario the government assumes,
including target economic growth rate and other
indicators
-- Medium-run economic policy stance and policy priority,
including allocation of funds for investment in
social overhead capital
-- Economic behavior of household and business sectors
that the government deems desirable
2 2- -8 Role of Economic Planning 8 Role of Economic Planning
Economic Plans
To what extent did the government’s economic plans contribute to the success in J apan’s post-war
development?
The J apanese government first adopted the ‘Economic Self-Reliance Five-Year Plan’ in 1955. Then economic
plans of five- to ten-year duration were created in sequence. The ‘Doubling National Income Plan’ adopted in
1960 with the target year of 1970 was often regarded as the most successful plan. The plan that aimed at
doubling national income in real terms in ten years was executedsuccessfully by building confidence within
J apanese business and household sectors, thereby attaining such rapid economic growth.
Up to the present day, there have been 14 officially adopted economic plans. Although their planning periods
were five to ten years, all of them were replaced by revised plans before the end of the original plan period.
This was partly because of deviations of actual economic conditions from the assumed economic framework
during the plan period, and partly because new administrations preferred to adopt their own new plans when
they took office. Even before the enactment of the first official plan, there were discussions among government
sections, businesses, consumers and academia that contributed tothe national consensus building on
development strategies.
Nature of Economic Plans in a Market Economy
Economic plans in the market economy were geared to communicate government’s views on the future of
J apanese economy to the public, and to form a national consensus. J apanese economic plans usually consisted
of the following ingredients: i) medium-term development scenario that the government assumes, includingan
economic framework such as targeted rates of economic growth andinflation; ii) medium-run economic policy
goals and policy priority, including allocation of investments in social overhead capital in the plan period; and
iii) private sector’s actions that the government considered desirable. As such, these plans were of an
‘indicative-type’ rather than those of ‘command-type’ widely seen in central planning economies. Acceptance
of those suggested actions was optional rather than compulsory.
21
Examples of Adopted Economic Plans Examples of Adopted Economic Plans
Name
1.Economic Self-
Reliance Plan
3.Doubling National
Income Plan
5.Economic and Social
Development Plan
7.Economic and Social
Basic Plan
8.Economic Plan for
2
nd
Half of the 1970s
Plan
period
1956
~1960
1961
~1970
1967
~1971
1973
~1977
1976
~1980
Major purposes
Economic self-reliance
Full employment
High growth
Higher living standard
Balanced and fulfilled
economy/society
People’s welfare
International relations
Stable development
Fulfilled people’s living
Growth target
/actual growth
4.9%
8.8%
7.8%
10.0%
8.2%
9.8%
9.4%
3.5%
6%+
4.5%
Economic Plans that Played a Significant Role
During the rapid growth period, economic plans generally contributed to a consensus formation. The typical
case was the Doubling National Income Plan. Subsequent plans such as the ‘Economic and Social
Development Plan’ (1967—1971) and the ‘New Economic and Social Development Plan’ (1970—1975)
addressed problems that emerged as a result of this rapid growth, such as pollution, income inequality, and
rapid urbanization and concentration. These plans shed light on the importance of balanced economic
development.
Although the plan was very short-lived due to the dramatic changes caused by the first oil crisis, the
‘Economic and Social Basic Plan’ (1973—1977) focused on people’s well-being and international aspects of
development. With the energy crisis, pessimistic views on J apan’s growth potential prevailed. The
‘Economic Plan for the Second Half of the 1970s’ (1976—1980), by (1) advocating potential annual growth
rates of 5 to 6%, (2) emphasizing the needs of structural reforms and (3) adopting energy-saving initiatives
in order to regain growth potential, contributed to J apan’s overcoming of the oil crisis.
Compared to these plans, subsequent plans were less effective in setting/forming national consensus. In a
post catch-up era, government plans should be limited to government’s own reform agenda such as
regulatory and budgetary reforms.
22
Part III: Part III:
Socio Socio- -Economic Outcome Economic Outcome
of Rapid Growth of Rapid Growth
( ( – – 1970s 1970s – – ) )
23
Labor market – labor surplus to labor shortage
– Wage increase – productivity-differential inflation
Infrastructure
– Tokaido bullet train; Meishin super highway
– Physical transportation modes – motorization
Negative side
– Underdevelopment of social overhead capital
(infrastructure) for better living
– Overpopulation in urban areas and depopulation
in rural areas
– Environmental degradation
Public pension system extended to self-employed
3 3- -1 Socio 1 Socio- -Economic Transformation Economic Transformation
Employment share 1955 1970
Primary industry 41.3% 19.7%
Secondary industry 24.9% 35.3%
Tertiary industry 33.8% 45.0%
Socio-Economic Transformation
During the rapid growth period, J apanese society underwent various changes. From 1955 to 1970, the share of
primary industry in total nominal GDP decreased from 19.2% to 5.9%, while that of secondary industry
increased from 33.8% to 43.1%. In terms of employment share, primary industry declined from 41.3% to 19.7%,
secondary industry from 24.9% to 35.3%, and the tertiary sector from 33.8% to 45.0%. Changing conditions in
the labor market, from excess supply to labor shortage at around 1960, resulted in wage increases even in the
less productive sectors and smaller companies. A shrinking wage gap in spite of the persistent gap in labour
productivity caused the so-called ‘productivity-growth-differential’ inflation. The consumer price index
constantly increased from the beginning of the 1960s, while wholesale prices were relatively stable.
Regarding people’s livelihood, a spread of consumer durables caused substantial changes in consumers’ lives
(‘consumption revolution’). A sense of ‘middle class’ was shared by a large part of J apanese society.
Economic infrastructure was actively developed as seen in the opening of the Tokaidobullet train between
Tokyo and Osaka in 1964, and a super highway between Komaki (near Nagoya) and Nishinomiya(near Kobe)
in 1965. Motorization proceeded with increases in auto sales andhighway construction.
On the downside of the rapid growth, some significant distortions developed. Most notably were (1) a delay in
development of living-related infrastructure, (2) urban overpopulation and rural depopulation as a result of labor
movement from rural to urban areas, and (3) environmental degradation. With the advent of four major
pollution-related diseases, the government took anti-pollution measures such as the enactment of the Basic Law
for Anti-pollution Measures in 1967 and the establishment of the Environmental Agency in 1971.
As for social insurance, the National Pension System started. The coverage of public pension and health
insurance was widened to all people including self-employed and unemployed by the late 1960s.
24
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1
9
5
5
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
4
1,000-
500-999
300-499
200-299
100-199
50-99
30-49
20-29
40
50
60
70
80
90
1
9
4
7
1
9
5
0
1
9
5
5
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
5
Longevity
Female
Male
3 3- -2 Positive Outcomes of the Rapid Growth 2 Positive Outcomes of the Rapid Growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1
9
5
5
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
6
Male
Female
Total
Wage gap by size of company
Manufacturing
Percentage of students who
enter colleges/universities
The rapid growth raised the income level and people’s living standards. For example:
Lifespan lengthened
Thanks to increases in income, education on nutrition, vaccination and other medical care improvements, people’s
health condition dramatically improved. Average life span of theJ apanese was lengthened from 60 years for males
and 63 years for females to 71 and 77, respectively, between 1950 and 1975. It continued to lengthen after the end
of the rapid growth, and now stands at 78 for males and 85 for females.
Education attainment improved
Higher education had become far more accessible to ordinary people. The percentage of young people who enter
universities/colleges (including junior colleges) jumped up from10% (male: 15%, female 5%) in 1960 to 38%
(male: 43%, female 32%) in 1975. University enrollment ratio stagnated from 1975 to 1990, but it started to rise
again in the 1990s, this time mainly due to a significant increase in female students’ enrollment. Now the gender
gap in university enrollment has almost disappeared.
Income gap narrowed
After WWII ended, J apan’s economic development strategy initially focused on recovery of key industries and of
large size enterprises.
Small businesses and non-manufacturing sectors were left behind in terms of productivity, wages and working
conditions. The productivity gap continued to widen during the rapid growth period. Nevertheless, overall labor
shortages as a result of the rapid growth eventually pushed up the wage levels even at small and non-manufacturing
companies. The wage gap by company size narrowed sharply from 1955 to 1965, but that trend reversed afterwards.
25
Movement from
rural to urban
Movement from
urban to rural
Movement inside urban
from one prefecture
to another
Movement inside rural
from one prefecture
to another
Net inflow of population
to Metropolitan Tokyo
thousand
3 3- -3 Negative Outcomes of the Rapid Growth 3 Negative Outcomes of the Rapid Growth
(1) Overpopulation and Depopulation (1) Overpopulation and Depopulation
Dark Side of the Rapid Growth
The rapid economic growth also brought about significant problems in society, such as (1) over-population
in metropolitan areas and depopulation in rural areas; (2) weakening of social cohesion such as regional
community and family relationships; and (3) environmental disruption such as air and water pollution, noise,
increase in waste, and land subsidence. Here (1) and (3) will bediscussed.
Over-Population and Depopulation
The rapid growth period was also a rapid population movement period. The substantial shift of the industry
structure from agriculture to manufacturing and services drove farmers to urban areas to seek job
opportunities and urban life. Agricultural employment halved from 13.3 million (33% of total employment)
in 1960 to 6.7 million (2.6%) in 1975. It has continued to decline and as of 2005 only 2.9 million (4.7%) are
engaged in agriculture, a majority of whom engage in other jobs and farm only “part-time”. In particular, to
fulfill the labor demand expansion in manufacturing, sons and daughters of farmers were systematically sent
to big cities in large numbers.
Over-population in the metropolitan areas unavoidably caused the congestion phenomena, such as traffic
jams, poor housing conditions, a shortageof urban infrastructure, terrible commutes, and environmental
pollution. Depopulation in the rural areas resulted in more reliance on food imports, further budget
dependence of the local government on the central government, and a higher risk of natural disaster due to
devastated fields and forests.
The rural-to-urban migration calmed after the economic growth rate slowed, but the inflow of population
into the Tokyo metropolitan area has been consistent.
26
3 3- -3 Negative Outcome of the Rapid Growth 3 Negative Outcome of the Rapid Growth
(2) (2) Environmental degradation Environmental degradation
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
SO
2
(ppm)
NO
2
(ppm)
Atmospheric polution
SO
2
(ppm)
Source: Ministry of Environment
Environmental Degradation
The development strategy that put emphasis on industrial growth caused serious environmental degradation
in many parts of J apan.
Atmospheric pollution
Metropolitan and industrial areas faced serious problems associated with air pollution, beginning in the
1950s. Smoke covered the cities and the number of asthmatic patients increased in major industrial cities.
The government enacted a law to control air pollution in 1962 that mainly focused on smoke emission from
coal fuel. However, it did not address the emerging industrial use of petroleum fuel that caused sulfa-oxide
emission or the increasing emissions from automobiles. In 1968 this law was revised as the Air Pollution
Prevention Law. It regulated SOx emission from factory chimneys. Factories were forced to build very high
chimneys of 100 to 150 meters. Although this law was effective in reducing SOx exposure around the
factory chimneys, it also created air pollution in a wider area. In 1970, the law was substantially amended in
order to allow prefectural governments to (1) set stricter standards than those set by the central government,
(2) introduce direct punishment against violators, and (3) widenthe coverage of regulation from specific
regions to nationwide.
Now the level of SOx emission has decreased to 1/10 of the level in 1965. However, NOx emission that
mainly comes from automobiles is still at a high level.
27
20
40
60
80
100
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
Lakes
Rivers
Water pollution
% of attaining environmental standard
Source: Ministry of Environment
Water pollution
Water pollution was also a serious environmental problem. The water quality generally deteriorated in lakes,
rivers, seas, and underground water. Emissions of harmful substances from factories caused very serious
human diseases that often were fatal. The most prominent examplewas the Minamata disease, caused by
Methylmercury contained in drained water from chemical factoriesthat killed and disabled many people in
Kumamoto in the 1950s and Niigata in the 1960s. Accumulated slime created by water drained from
pulp/paper factories and contaminated rivers and coastal waters.
Not only industrial but also household emissions aggravated the situation of water pollution.
Although two laws were enacted in 1958 in order to protect water quality from factory emissions, they were
largely ineffective. In 1970, a far more potent Water Pollution Prevention Law that introduced a strict
liability principle to water pollution was enacted. Thanks to this law and technological developments, the
quality of water has been improving since then.
28
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
5
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Atmospheric pollution
related disease (left)
Minamata
disease
(right)
Number of patients
Source: Ministry of Environment
Diseases Caused by Environmental Degradation
Environmental pollution caused serious diseases in various regions in J apan. Even confined to officially
recognized cases, the estimated number of patients of diseases related to air pollution such as asthma in
Yokkaichi City, Mie, surpassed 100 thousand in 1988.
A symbol of J apan’s pollution disease, Minamatadisease. The number of officially recognized Minamata
patients reached 1,924 in 1984. There was a far larger number of patients requesting official recognition. In
March 1978, the number of recognized patients was 1,348, while 5,385 patients were filing for recognition.
29
3 3- -4 Gaps between Manufacturing 4 Gaps between Manufacturing
and Non and Non- -Manufacturing Sectors Manufacturing Sectors
Manufacturing sector -- productivity growth
Non-manufacturing sector -- stagnant productivity
-- preferential financial and foreign exchange allocation
-- difference in market competitiveness
Manufacturing Non-manufacturing
Catch-up process
J apanese-style market system
International competition Regulation and protection
Manufacturing vs. Non-Manufacturing Sectors
During the catch-up period, Japan’s tradable sector built a strong comparative advantage in manufacturing, taking
advantage of (1) the J apan-specific employment practices, (2) joint development of parts/components through a
supplier network called “keiretsu,” (2) the long-term management strategy supported by the mainbank system, (4)
the corporate governance structure, and (5) the effective protection from foreign capital through cross share-holdings.
This successful system of development unavoidably restricted market competition by effectively preventing entries
and even exits. In the tradable sector, however, tough international competition effectively offset the disadvantages
associated with this weaker domestic competition. As tariff barriers and quantitative restrictions effectively
protected the domestic market until the late 1950s, actual or potential pressures of international competition mainly
came from export markets. Even in the domestic economy, the markets of the tradable sectors were very competitive
during the industrialization period (Aoki and Okuno: 1996, p.13). Although the elements of competition were not
provided through a typical neoclassical market mechanism consisting of many mutually unidentified participants,
competition among ‘visible’ participants whose names and faces are known to each other was often tougher than that
with many ‘invisible’ participants.
In contrast to the success in the tradable sector, the non-tradable non-manufacturing sectors of the J apanese
economy lagged behind as they were effectively isolated from global competition. Moreover, the government’s
market interventions, excessive regulations, fiscal and financial subsidies, and protection of domestic markets from
imported services and foreign direct investments, hindered soundcompetition in these sectors. Thus, productivity
growth was not seen in non-tradable non-manufacturing sectors.
30
Relatively low productivity growth in the
non-tradable sector and resultant mild inflation
-5
0
5
10
15
1
9
5
1
-
5
5
1
9
5
6
-
6
0
1
9
6
1
-
6
5
1
9
6
6
-
7
0
1
9
7
1
-
7
5
1
9
7
6
-
8
0
1
9
8
1
-
8
5
1
9
8
6
-
9
0
1
9
9
1
-
9
5
1
9
9
6
-
9
9
CPI
WPI
Annual average inflation rates
%
BOJ ’saccommodative monetary policies effectively stimulated
corporate profits, investment, employment, and consumption
Stable WPI with CPI Inflation during High Growth Period
Certain non-tradable sectors grew, nonetheless, thanks to diversified demandstructure. Relatively
vibrant non-tradable sectors were distributions (retail/wholesale trade), leisure services, business
services, and housing and urban development.
Productivity growth in non-tradable sectors was generally slow, particularly relative to that in the
tradable sector. As a result, mild inflation in consumer prices emerged. As labor union movements
became coordinated across sectors, wages in less productive non-tradable sectors tended to increase
with increases in wages in tradable manufacturing sectors. It imposed a higher unit labor cost in
non-tradable sectors and these increased costs were passed to their product prices as those markets
were heavily protected. Thus, while manufacturing producers’ prices did not show any rising trend
(only cyclical fluctuations), consumer prices consistently rose at a rate of about five percent per
year.
Mechanism of Economy-wide Growth
The BOJ provided ample money in order to support rapid growth inthe J apanese economy starting
in the 1950s. Beginning in 1965, the government began to issue bonds every year, sold to the
syndicates of private financial institutions. Under tight financial market regulation, the bond interest
rates were set substantially lower than long-term market rates. Therefore bonds were not attractive
instruments for the financial sector. The BOJ ended up purchasing them from the financial sector
within one year of issuance. Thus a very accommodative monetarypolicy was created.
This accommodative monetary policy and resultant mild inflation assured profits for manufacturing
companies and thus attracted new investment while enabling job creation in non-manufacturing
sectors that supported the expansion in manufacturing sectors. In this way, strong economy-wide
macroeconomic growth was preserved.
31
1955-70 1970-80 1980-95
Manufacturing 6.0 2.1 2.3
Light manufacturing 2.7 1.7 0.2
Materials 9.2 -1.9 0.6
Machinery 11.9 7.6 5.5
Non-manufacturing 4.2 0.3 0.3
Construction 2.7 -2.9 0.3
Finance/utility/T&T 6.4 1.8 0.7
Distribution & service 3.3 -0.1 0.2
Annual growth of total factor productivity
Sector ? Period 1955-70 1970-80 1980-95
?annual rate ??
Manufactur
Production growth 14.2 4.4 3.5
TFP growth 6. 0 2. 1 2. 3
Contribution of capital 6.0 2.8 1.6
Contribution of labor 2.2 -0.5 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing
Production growth 10.9 5.0 3.6
TFP growth 4. 2 0. 3 0. 3
Contribution of capital 4.6 3.7 2.6
Contribution of labor 2.1 1.0 0.7
Light manufacturing
Production growth 8.5 3.8 0.6
TFP growth 2. 7 1. 7 0. 2
Contribution of capital 4.6 2.8 1.3
Contribution of labor 1.2 -0.8 -0.9
Materials
Production growth 19.6 2.8 2.7
TFP growth 9. 2 -1. 9 0. 6
Contribution of capital 7.2 4.7 1.8
Contribution of labor 3.2 -0.1 0.3
Machinery
Production growth 21.7 9.6 6.6
TFP growth 11. 9 7. 6 5. 5
Contribution of capital 6.2 2.6 1.9
Contribution of labor 3.6 -0.7 -0.8
Construction
Production growth 11.7 2.9 2.5
TFP growth 2. 7 -2. 9 0. 3
Contribution of capital 5.9 4.3 2.1
Contribution of labor 3.2 1.4 0.1
Finance/Utility/transport/Telecom
Production growth 12.4 4.9 3.9
TFP growth 6. 4 1. 8 0. 7
Contribution of capital 3.3 2.2 2.3
Contribution of labor 2.7 0.9 0.9
Distribution/Service
Production growth 9.9 6.1 3.8
TFP growth 3. 3 -0. 1 0. 2
Contribution of capital 5.0 5.2 2.8
Contribution of labor 1.6 0.9 0.8
32
Part IV: Part IV:
Japanese Japanese- -Style Market System Style Market System
For a For a
Miracle Recovery Miracle Recovery
33
4 4- -1 Elements of Japanese 1 Elements of Japanese- -Style Market System Style Market System
Employment system
Main-bank system
Corporate management
Cross share-holding
Parts supplier Keiretsu
Industrial policy/regulation
Employment system
Main-bank system
Corporate management
Cross share-holding
Parts supplier Keiretsu
Industrial policy/regulation
Long Long- -term relations term relations
Organizational trade Organizational trade
Stability Stability- -oriented oriented
‘The 1940 Regime’
originated just
before WWII
Adjusted by themselves
after the war
‘ ‘The 1940 Regime The 1940 Regime’ ’
originated just originated just
before WWII before WWII
Adjusted by themselves Adjusted by themselves
after the war after the war
Interventionist Interventionist
government government
Elements of Japanese-Style Market System
In the development of J apanese industries, certain institutional schemes and business practices played an
important role. Typical elements of the J apanese-style economic system and business practices included long-
term employment and related labor market practices, such as in-house training, the dominant role played by the
banking sector in corporate finance (via direct financing), corporate governance controlled by managers
supported by a main-bank system, cross share-holdings among companies, and a close relationship between
government and business with regulations and other kinds of market intervention such as ‘guidance’.
Origins for the System
These elements of J apanese-style market system are often believed to be deep-rooted in J apan’s traditional culture.
Others think that this framework was designed after WWII for a quick recovery from the devastation of the war.
In fact, many of the elements of the J apanese economic system originated from just before WWII, when there
were national mobilization policies in preparation for the war. The systemsurvived the war and was built into the
J apanese economy with substantial adjustmentsafter the war.
System with Long-Term Relationships
Whether the ‘J apanese-style’ market economy was a rational system or not continues to be debated. It was
characterized by its long-term nature. That is, it included stable long-term engagements of economic agents, often
implicit both in intra- and inter-company relations. Some elements of the system were exclusively J apanese, while
other aspects were commonly shared with other market economies.
Although the long-term relationships embedded in the J apanese-style market system contributed positively to her
economic development, it was exclusionary (anti-competitive) in its nature. New and potential entrants to markets,
particularly foreign businesses (and foreign governments), continue to criticize this exclusivity.
In Need of Change after the ‘Catch-Up’ Process
The J apanese system apparently worked effectively during its ‘catch-up’ phases of development. However, after
having ‘caught up’, it is now believed that new progress must come from autonomousrisk-taking behavior by
businesses and individuals. In this regard, the J apanese-style system of development based on consensus and
cooperation that once functioned so successfully has become an obstacle. The system was (and still is) in need of
change.
34
Development of J apanese-style Market System?The 1940 Regime
Development of J apanese-style Market System?The 1940 Regime The 1940 Regime
The 1940 Regime [Yukio Noguchi (2002)]
?Main-bank system
– 1941: syndicate loan group w/ the leadership of IBJ
– 1942: examination departments in commercial banks
?Corporate governance– 1939: dividend regulation
?Employment practice– 1937: intra-firm labor unions;
1939: wage increase regulation (annual wage hike)
?Parts supplier keiretsu – established during war-time
?Industrial policy– 1941: regulation of industries
?Taxationrelying on income tax – 1940: withholding tax
The 1940 Regime The 1940 Regime [Yukio Noguchi (2002)]
?Main-bank system
– 1941: syndicate loan group w/ the leadership of IBJ
– 1942: examination departments in commercial banks
?Corporate governance– 1939: dividend regulation
?Employment practice– 1937: intra-firm labor unions;
1939: wage increase regulation (annual wage hike)
?Parts supplier keiretsu – established during war-time
?Industrial policy– 1941: regulation of industries
?Taxationrelying on income tax – 1940: withholding tax
35
1987 1995 1999
Shares issued by business companies
Ratio of shares held by stable holders 29.7% 28.7% 27.9%
of which held by financial institutions 22.0% 20.1% 12.9%
Shares issued by banks
Ratio of shares held by stable holders 55.7% 53.3% 45.6%
of which held by business companies 34.4% 32.9% 28.5%
Source: NLI Research Institute (adjusted series for changes in disclosure rules)
Corporate governance built on cross share cross share- -holdings holdings
Substitute for
Zaibatsu
Prevention of
M&As
Substitute for
Zaibatsu
Prevention of
M&As
-- Autonomy of corporate managers
-- Long-term management perspective
-- Low capital cost of equity finance
-- Autonomy of corporate managers
-- Long-term management perspective
-- Low capital cost of equity finance
Cross Share-Holdings
A separation of ownership and management of corporate entities was originally established in the United
States. J apan, too, had separation of management from ownership, but in a J apanese style. A large portion of
corporate equities was (and still is) held by other corporate firms including financial institutions, often
known as ‘stable shareholders’. This took the form of ‘cross share-holding’ among firms. Those (cross)
shareholders were believed to be stable owners as they do not usually sell off the shares, try to take over the
firms, or intervene in the management.
Cross holdings of corporate shares originated after WWII, partly as a substitute for pre-war Zaibatsu
conglomerates that were forcefully dissolved, and partly as a preventive measure against M&As by foreign
multinationals.
Thanks to this common practice, J apanese businesses had been relatively free from the threats of adversarial
takeovers and from interventions by shareholders. In addition, as the stable corporate shareholders did not
usually request high dividend payouts, the capital cost of equity finance had been extremely low. As such,
corporate profits were mostly re-invested in new equipment, and this in turn raised the value of the firms and
created massive capital gains for these shareholders.
This tendency toward low dividends was formed during WWII, when high dividends to capital investment
were deemed inappropriate (Noguchi,1995). In 1939, dividend regulation was introduced. When inward
foreign direct investment was liberalized in the 1960s, this system was effectively utilized in order to protect
J apanese firms from takeover bids by foreign multinationals.
Thanks to this practice of stable shareholdings, corporate managers had the luxury of pursuing their long-
term goals. As the mandate of management was not dominated by short-term profits, J apanese firms were
able to invest in equipment, research and development, and humanresource development.
Downside
The downside was the possible moral hazard in management as managers were not subject to monitoring by
participants in capital markets.
36
Functions of the ‘main-bank system’
– Saving of costs associated with
asymmetry of information
•Screening and monitoring
•Signaling to other financial institutions
•Corporate governance
– Insurance to corporate management
risks
– Information exchange
Corporate finance relying on banking sector
Main-Bank System
The J apanese corporate sector relied heavily on loans extended by financial institutions. Even today, when
corporate financing through the capital market (i.e., direct financing) is growing, a substantial portion of
business debt stock is still in the form of bank loans (i.e., indirect finance). (According to the Bank of
J apan’s flow of funds account, in 1997, non-financial corporations’ aggregate outstanding loans amounted to
525 trillion yen, in which 407 trillion yen (77.5%) consisted of private bank loans as compared to corporate
shares of 291 trillion yen and other securities of 83 trillion yen.)
Most firms have their main banks. A main bank for a firm is defined as the bank that has the largest share in
total bank loans extended to that firm. Moreover, main banks often arrange bond and equity finance for the
firms, and regularly monitor their corporate management and business plans/projects.
Functions of Main Banks
From a microeconomic point of view, the regular collection of borrowers’ information by main banks was
good therapy for the problem of information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers (i.e., the
‘monitoring’ functionof main banks). This saved the cost of information collection and the risks associated
with lending for non-main banks. In case management performance of a borrower firm temporarily
worsened and the risk of bankruptcy arose, its main bank was expected to step in and rescue the firm with
contingent loans and/or a loan rescheduling. A main bank dispatched top managers and extended advice for
its rehabilitation (the ‘insurance’ function). When a decision was made by a main bank to finance a firm’s
project(s), other banks were pleased to provide additional loansas the main bank guaranteed the profitability
of the project(s). In case of difficulties, the main bank was expected to assume the burden of a corporate
bailout (the ‘signaling’ function). The main-bank system had played a role of corporate governance in the
J apanese post-war system of development. In post-war Japan, where shareholders and capital markets did
not assume the monitoring role due to the existence of ‘stable shareholders’ created by cross share-holdings,
main bankstook that role.
37
Before the war:
Equity finance
dominant
Before the war:
Equity finance
dominant
During the war:
Banking was
promoted
During the war:
Banking was
promoted
After the war:
Bank finance
Main-bank system
After the war:
Bank finance
Main-bank system
t
i
g
h
t
r
e
g
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
“
C
o
n
v
o
y
”
s
y
s
t
e
m
t
i
g
h
t
r
e
g
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
“
C
o
n
v
o
y
”
s
y
s
t
e
m
1964
1960
1955
1950
1940
1935
E
q
u
i
t
y
B
o
n
d
Bank loan Own fund
Financing Sources of
industrial investment
Equity Financing to Bank Financing under the ‘Convoy System’
As a matter of fact, before World War II, corporate firms reliedmore on capital markets for their financing
of investment. Commercial banks then often lacked the capacity to evaluate borrowers’ repayment
capabilities and associated risks. As the war became imminent, the government tried to provide a larger
portion of available funds to military-related industries by seeking more direct control over fund flows. The
authorities denounced stock markets for their speculative and disorderly nature, and encouraged markets of
financial intermediation by banks. The authorities believed that financial intermediation by banks was much
more controllable. Therefore, the seed of the main-bank system was formed in WWII, when the J apanese
government took steps to make banks the key financiers of the economy. In 1942, examination departments
were introduced into commercial banks by government regulation and began their regular monitoring of
borrowers. This scheme was thought to be the origin of the main-bank system established after the war
(Noguchi, 1995). The main-bank system facilitated J apan’s economic growth by allocating funds to growing
industries. Tight regulation of the financial sector by the Ministry of Finance, or the so-called ‘convoy
system’, kept this sector ‘orderly’ and preserved a stable main-bank scheme. The main-bank scheme helped
businesses to develop long-term plans by regularly providing loans and serving as a lender-of-last-resort in
case of financial difficulties. Thus, the main-bank scheme played an important role in J apan’s corporate
governance as it kept corporate management prudent and long-term oriented.
Downside
The downside was that this scheme unavoidably weakened competition among financial institutions in terms
of their fighting for corporate customers/borrowers. Main banks also often influenced borrowers’ finance
decisions and hindered the sound development of capital markets in J apan.
38
Labor market practices based on long-term employment
Japanese-style employment practices
– Long-term or ‘life-time’ employment
– Wage increases and promotions based on
seniority
– On-the-job training (OJT)
– Intra-company labor unions
Rationality of long-term employment
– Accumulation of company-specific skills and
technology
– Smooth transfer of skills from one employee to
another
– Smooth introduction of new technology
– Saving of workers’ transition costs of changing jobs
– Less need to monitor workers
Japanese-Style Employment Practices
The J apanese labor market had been characterized by its so-called ‘J apanese-style employment practices.’
These practices consist of long-term employment (or ‘lifetime’ employment), a seniority-based wage system,
promotions in internal labor markets, intra-firm labor unions, and long-run on-the-job training (OJ T). Intra-
firm labor markets were formed with equal opportunity given to all newly-recruited workers, with a slow
promotion process (in selecting winners), and with active ‘visible’ competition among the participants. This
kept young workers motivated.
Reflecting these employment practices, labor adjustments were performed mainly through
lengthening/shortening working hours, wage adjustments, and intra-firm job transfer, rather than through
layoffs. This prevented the rate of unemployment from rising even during recessions. Labor unions were
organized as intra-firm organizations. The union membership was usually extended toboth white- and blue-
collar workers.
Development of These Practices
Before WWII, J apan’s labor market was more like that written in an economics textbook. Although some big
businesses had introduced long-term employment practices for their core white-collar workforce, manual
workers (blue-collars) were most likely hired in spot markets. In 1937, in order to secure labor-employer
cooperation in serving the nation, intra-firm unions encompassing both white-collar and manual workers
were organized. These practices survived throughout the post-war development period as they had systemic
advantages, such as a high level of worker morale, cooperative behavior among workers, firms’ positive
attitudes toward long-term human resource investment and OJ T, and employees’ positive attitudes toward
technological innovation.
Advantages
From microeconomic viewpoints, these practices were effective means to (1) overcome difficulties
associated with asymmetry of information regarding employees’ abilities and work ethics, (2) promote
workers’ faith toward their companies through ‘reputation’ and ‘hostage’ mechanisms, (3) settle conflicts of
interest in intra-firm negotiations, and (4) facilitate transfer of skills among workers.
39
Part V: Part V:
The Evolution of the The Evolution of the
Japanese Development Model Japanese Development Model
*** ***
End of Catching End of Catching- -Up Process Up Process
Bubble Economy Bubble Economy
(1970s (1970s – – 1980s) 1980s)
** **
Lost Decade and Beyond Lost Decade and Beyond
(1990s (1990s - - ) )
40
5 5- -1 Failure to Adjust to Post 1 Failure to Adjust to Post- -Catch Catch- -Up Era Up Era
The end of the “catch-up” process
Survival of the J apanese-style economic system and practices
Strengthened by the success in overcoming the oil crises
Implicit goals shared by
all segments during
the “catch-up” period
To attain success
-- consensus formation
-- coordinated actions
J apanese-Style
Market System
-- long-term relations
-- information sharing
Post-catch-up period
Common goal disappeared
Autonomous action
Top management forced to
steer the ship
?
End of ‘Catch-Up’ Process
The catch-up process seemed to have reached its successful conclusion by the end of the 1960s, at least as indicated
by the level of per capita GDP (PPP). However, the economic system that brought about the successful ‘catching-up’
did not itself evolve, or adjust to the new needs in the post catch-up era. The traditional process of consensus
formation played a significant role again at the time when J apanfaced the first oil crisis of 1973-74. In order to cope
with the quadruple price increase of imported oil and the resultant stagflation, economic agents implicitly agreed, as
directed by the government, to accept tough industrial and employment adjustments and not to rely on
accommodative macroeconomic policies for recovery. Eventually, the J apanese economy overcame high energy
prices by energy-efficient manufacturing processes and products, and this, in turn, strengthened the international
competitiveness of J apanese products. The J apanese economy weathered the second oil crisis of 1979, again without
significant inflation or commodity shortages. In retrospect, however, this resulted in a survival of the modality of
consensus formation, collective actions, and government leadership that was no longer suitable in the post catch-up
era.
After the catch-up process was over, exogenously given goals for business and technology development no longer
existed. Companies had to create their own goals and management strategies suited for their new targets. The
elaboration of explicit goals and strategies by top management had become indispensable.
41
Manufacturing: adjustments to changing environment Manufacturing: adjustments to changing environment
-- persistent appreciation of yen
-- industrialization of Asian economies
Parts-supplier
“keiretsu”
-- survived, taking
advantage of
information sharing
-- strengthened
bargaining power
of suppliers
(after bubble burst)
-- transforming into
a more market-oriented
network
Parts-supplier
“keiretsu”
-- survived, taking
advantage of
information sharing
-- strengthened
bargaining power
of suppliers
(after bubble burst)
-- transforming into
a more market-oriented
network
Long-term
employment
-- survived, taking
advantage of OJ T
(after bubble burst)
-- increased share
of part-time or
temp workers
Long-term
employment
-- survived, taking
advantage of OJ T
(after bubble burst)
-- increased share
of part-time or
temp workers
Main-bank system
-- lowering of big
Businesses’ reliance
on bank loans
(after bubble burst)
-- consolidation
in the banking
sector itself
Main-bank system
-- lowering of big
Businesses’ reliance
on bank loans
(after bubble burst)
-- consolidation
in the banking
sector itself
Manufacturing (Tradable) Sectors in Transformation
The manufacturing sector, confronted with stiff global competition in the face of the rise in Asian nations and the yen’s
appreciation since the 1970s, constantly sought to maximize the rate productivity increase. This sector thus chose to
preserve the effective parts of the existing system and to transform other elements. In other words, they were keeping what
worked, and changing what didn’t.
Labor Market
Many of the long-term employment practices survived because they are effective human resource management practices.
The manufacturing sector tended to rely heavily on company-specific technology, and therefore more long-term, on-the-job
skill development continued to be an effective option. After theburst of the bubble, however, the share of part-time and/or
temp workers has been increasing with deregulations in J apan’s labor market.
‘Keiretsu’
The parts supplier ‘keiretsu’ network system substantially changed due largely to the strengthened ability of parts suppliers
to develop new products. With advantageous information sharing, the ‘keiretsu’ scheme survived. However, the nature of
subcontractors’ dependency on their ‘parent’ companies had largely changed. In many industries, final-assembly producers
were no longer capable of designing new products without cooperation from parts suppliers. Backed by technological
advantages, many suppliers could abandon their former customers if the terms of the transaction seemed disadvantageous
to them and if they could find other partners. Parts suppliers’ competitiveness was fostered by stiff competition with other
suppliers in the same keiretsu network and by potential competitive pressure exerted by suppliers outside the keiretsu. This
has been a typical form of ‘visible’ competition in the J apanese-style market system. Visible face-to-face competition was
often tougher than textbook-style competition among anonymous players. This induced massive efforts to raise
productivity, and to shorten delivery time. With the advent of more independent suppliers, parent companies started to
source their parts from firms outside keiretsu if it was more cost efficient. Thus the parts supplier keiretsu transformed
itself into a more open, market-oriented system.
Main-Bank System
By the 1970s, major manufacturing companies were no longer dependent on specific financial institutions for their
investment funds. In the 1980s, capital market instruments (equity finance, CP, etc.) had regained strength in corporate
finance in J apan. Financial institutions often lost their best customers and frantically sought new borrowers. They found
new customers typically among construction, real estate and non-bank financial sectors. Although the business activities of
these new customers involved substantial risks, banks tended to lack information to evaluate these risks properly. As a
result, those new loans were backed by real estate collateral. Market values of real estate collateral were based on a very
optimistic future assessment, and this, in turn, fueled the bubble formation.
42
Non Non- -manufacturing: delay in adjustments manufacturing: delay in adjustments
-- weaker market competition
-- lack of global competition
--public regulations
High costs imposed on
-- consumers
-- tradable sector businesses
-- business startups
-- inward FDI
Changes in Environment
-- globalization
-- developments of IT
-- FDI
Necessity of
-- creativity
-- risk-taking
Delay in Adjustments in Non-Manufacturing (Non-Tradable) Sectors
In addition to the lack of international competition, a slower pace of economic growth after the end of the
catch-up process limited the space for market competition in the non-manufacturing (non-tradable) sectors.
The traditional J apanese market system and public regulations continued to restrict competition and
protected matured or declining sectors.
The lack of competition led to lower productivity in these sectors, which in turn imposed high costs on
consumers and growing manufacturing industries.
Owing to the globalization of economic activities and rapid development of information technology, the
J apanese economy had entered an era of a diverse, knowledge economy. Here, even the competitiveness of
the nontradable sectors is determined by creative ideas and risk-taking innovative behavior.
43
?Corporate managers – interested
in expansion of the company and stable
relations with stakeholders;
overlooked profitability and risks
?Banks–struggled for new customers;
lacked risk assessment of borrowers
?Capital market – lost corporate
monitoring function; equity finance
The The “ “bubble bubble” ” economy economy
Employment
practice
Consensus
for job
security
Call for
int’l policy
coordination
Yen’s
appreciation
Race for size expansion
Neglecting risks & profits
Economic stimulus
by BOJ and gov’t
Moral hazard
5 5- -2 Japanese (poor) corporate governance 2 Japanese (poor) corporate governance
that caused the bubble that caused the bubble
Into the ‘Bubble’ Economy
In the second half of the 1980s, J apan developed a ‘bubble’ economy. Major factors that drove the
J apanese into the speculative boom were competition among firms seeking an expansion of their
company size, competition in the banking sector to expand the loan supply and other investments without
due consideration of credit risks, and economic stimulus measures taken by the Bank of J apan and the
government in the face of the Yen’s rapid appreciation after the Plaza Accord. Many factors were
attributable to the J apanese-style market system. The lack of sound corporate governance both in non-
financial and financial entities, and the social consensus demanding job security as a result of the
ingrained long-term employment practices can also both be blamed.
44
Asset prices
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1
9
8
4
.
0
1
1
9
8
5
.
0
1
1
9
8
6
.
0
1
1
9
8
7
.
0
1
1
9
8
8
.
0
1
1
9
8
9
.
0
1
1
9
9
0
.
0
1
1
9
9
1
.
0
1
1
9
9
2
.
0
1
1
9
9
3
.
0
1
1
9
9
4
.
0
1
end June, end December
L
a
n
d
p
r
i
c
e
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
N
i
k
k
e
i
a
v
e
r
a
g
e
Land price
increase (left)
Stock
price
(right)
5 5- -3 Emergence of 3 Emergence of
the the ‘ ‘bubble bubble’ ’
Monetary aggregates
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
?
???
?????
Social pressure to maintain job security
J apan’s labor market practice (long-term employment) had led to a strong national consensus demanding job security and
no firings or lay-offs. Under the practice of long-term employment and seniority-based internal promotion, companies were
compelled to try to ever expand their size in order to offer a sufficient number of posts in their company hierarchy.
The government was expected to avoid recession to keep unemployment low. However, in September 1985, there was the
signing of the so-called Plaza Accord which triggered a rapid appreciation of the yen. The yen’s rapid appreciation was a
threat to the J apanese economy that relied so heavily on exportsto the US market. In order to avoid an economic slump, the
government took fiscal stimulus measures, and the Bank of J apan took an extremely accommodative monetary policy. This
stimulating policy stance was maintained even after the real estate and stock market booms began to emerge; this flooding
of money supply thereby further fueled the bubble economy.
Emergence of the bubble
The two-digit rate of expansion of monetary aggregates fueled asset market inflation. Land prices rose by 50% on average
nationwideduring the second half of the 1980s. In Tokyo and other metropolitan business districts, land prices even tripled,
peaking in early 1991. Stock prices in terms of the Nikkei average quadrupled to peak values at the end of 1989.
As J apanese became more and more optimistic regarding the futurecourse of the economy, massive funds were poured into
domestic and overseas business projects. The resultant build-up of ‘excesses’, such as excess capacity, excess employment,
excess liability and excess loan supply, necessitated a long process of stock adjustments once the bubble economy collapsed
in the early 1990s.
Financial institutions that were insensitive to risks
J apan’s financial institutions were not sensitive enough to credit andother risks, as they had been protected by the ‘convoy
system’ led by the Ministry of Finance. They found new customers in construction, real estate, and non-bank financial
sectors, and provided loans to them with real estatecollateral. This created a typical spiral increase in real estate values and
loan supply.
45
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1985 1986 1987
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
??????????
???????
????????
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1985 1986 1987
????
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
Real GDP growth (left)
Growth of
export (left)
Discount
rate
P
e
a
k
B
o
t
t
o
m
F
i
s
c
a
l
p
a
c
k
a
g
e
Accommodative macroeconomic policy
Macroeconomic
Policy that fueled
speculative bubble
-- Reaction to yen’s
appreciation
-- “Black Monday”
-- Low interest rates
remained until 1989
-- Fiscal stimulus
in 1987
46
Average annual
growth rate
1956?60 8.8%
1961?65 9.2%
1966?70 11.1%
1971?75 4.5%
1976?80 4.4%
1981?85 3.3%
1986?90 4.9%
1991?95 1.5%
1996?2000 1.0%
2001?05 1.4%
Source: ESRI, Cabinet Office, "Annual Report on National Accounts“
Note: data after 1995 is based on chain-linking method, 2000 price.
Note: data before 1980 are based on
the 1968-based SNA.
0.2
1.1
1.9
2.6
1.4
-1.8
2.9
0.1
1.8
2.3
2.6
6.8
5.3
5.2
3.4
1.0
0.4
-0.2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1
9
8
8
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
%
GDP growth rate
Nominal growth
Real growth
5 5- -4 Burst Bubble and the 4 Burst Bubble and the ‘ ‘Lost Decade Lost Decade’ ’
Low rate of economic growth persisted after the bubble burst
After the collapse of the ‘bubble’ economy in early 1991, the J apanese economy rapidly fell into recession.
It technically bottomed out in late 1993, but the recovery process was slow and fragile, with an average
annual growth rate of only one percent plusthroughout the 1990s and the early part of the 2000s.
Changes in employment practices
During this post-bubble period, the J apanese economy experienced negative growth in real terms in two
different years. The unemployment rate that used to be only one to two percent until the early 1980s
steadily rose to 5% in 2000. The share of ‘non-regular’ employees, such as part-time workers, fixed-term
workers, and temp workers sent out by ‘temp agencies,’ had drastically increased, signifying a departure
from the long-term employment practice.
End of the ‘convoy system’
Corporate profits stagnated. As a result of the accumulation of non-performing loans and the plunge in the
market values of equities, some major financial institutions (e.g. Hokkaido TakushokuBank, Yamaichi
Securities, both in 1997) went bankrupt for the first time in the history of post WWII development of the
J apanese economy. This signified the end of the ‘convoy system.’
Persistent deflation
The J apanese economy experienced persistent deflation starting in the middle of the 1990s (which has in
fact just recently ended). This, too, was a phenomenon never before experienced in the post-war
development of J apan.
‘Lost Decade’
Thus, the J apanese economy suffered significant stagnation, and the decade after the bursting of the bubble
is now called the ‘lost decade’ in post-war Japanese development history. It was only after 2002 that the
economy entered a steady, albeit weak, recovery phase.
47
Source: OECD
"Economic Outlook 74
(Dec. 2003)
5 5- -5 Adjustment process after the bubble burst 5 Adjustment process after the bubble burst
Real GDP development in
economies with 'bubble' experience
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
7
1
9
8
8
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
Japan
USA
UK
Sweden
Finland?
1985=100
Comparative analyses of post-bubble developments
Speculative bubble formation and bursting occurred between the late 1980s and the early 1990s not only
in J apan but also in the US and Scandinavian economies, and to alesser degree, in the UK economy. In
those countries, after the collapse, painful adjustments of excess capacity and redundancy were carried
out often with rather drastic financial stabilization measures including temporary nationalization of major
banks. Their real GDP shrank and unemployment rates jumped up during transition. Sweden and Finland
went through a severe transition phase.
In contrast, in J apan a top priority was to maintain employment, and therefore drastic measures were
avoided. Companies tried to hoard their employees. The government pumped massive amounts of money
into the economy through public works and tax cuts. The Bank of J apan poured literally unlimited
liquidity into the economy. Faced with failing borrowers and an accumulation of non-performing loans,
banks, at least initially, continued to supply additional loans in order to let borrowers survive. They
propped up their sick and hobbling customers, but with further burdening debt.
As such, in spite of the burst of probably the largest bubble among the aforementioned countries, the
J apanese economy maintained slightly positive rates of growth inthe first half of the 1990s. However,
this strategy of preserving employment prolonged the following adjustment process and increased the
total adjustment costs. With the bankruptcies of some major financial institutions in late 1997, the
stagnancy of the J apanese economy continued into the 21
st
century.
48
Source?OECD “Economic Outlook 79”(J une 2006?
General government budget
balance ?% of GDP?
-5.2
-7.9
-7.5
-5.9
-5.1
-4.2
0.8
2.1
0.3
-4.7
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1
9
8
8
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
Cyclical balance
Structural balance
Budget balance
?
Projected
5 5- -6 Deterioration of the government fiscal balance 6 Deterioration of the government fiscal balance
Macroeconomic policy
Policy options that J apanese had after the bubble burst were (i) traditional macroeconomic stimulus
measures (fiscal and monetary), (ii) financial measures to restore the financial intermediary system, and
(iii) structural measures to speed the disposal of ‘excesses’ built up during the bubble period and to develop
new business sectors. In fact, the chosen policy mix was traditional macroeconomic stimuli, partly coupled
with financial rehabilitation measures. The necessity of structural reforms was not fully recognized at least
until the latter half of the 1990s.
Discretionary fiscal policy and ‘structural’ budget deficit
J apan adopted a discretionary fiscal policy, which is the utilization of measures like tax reduction and
public investment, to stabilize the economy. The subsequent build-up of budget deficits shows the extent of
this massivebudgetary support for the ailing economy. The budget deficit canbe broken down into two
parts. One is the cyclical deficit that reflects the functioning of the automatic stabilizer such as tax revenues
and unemployment benefits. The other part represents structural deficit. This latter part comes from
intentional fiscal policies such as tax cuts and expenditure programs, and from institutional factors such as
subsidies, education expenses, and social security and taxation systems.
Since the bubble burst, the majority of J apan’s general government budget deficit has been structural,
which has expanded rapidly due to repeated economic stimulus measures taken in the 1990s.
49
Source: OECD “Economic Outlook 78”
? Dec. 2005?
Note: General government budget
Budget balance?% of GDP?
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
?
Japan
Italy
USA Germany
UK
France
Government debt ?% of GDP?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
?
Japan
USA
Italy
UK
France
Germany
Japanese budget balance in comparison to the other industrial economies
In the 1990s, most industrialized economies consolidated their budgets, and some even attained
budget surplus. J apan, on the contrary, experienced a sharp deterioration of the budget balance,
from a surplus in 1990, to a massive deficit of more than 7% of GDP by the turn of the century.
As the social security account has maintained a surplus of about 2% of GDP during this period,
the central and local governments have been in fact running a deficit worth about 9% of GDP.
Budget deficit has been largely financed by issuance of government bonds and by other kinds of
borrowings. As a result, the outstanding government debt has reached 160% of GDP. J apan is
now the country with the world’s largest government debt.
50
Source: Financial Service Agency
Note: end of fiscal year
Nonperforming loans and disposal
13. 1
17. 5
26. 2
34. 8
42
0
5
10
15
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
N
o
n
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
i
n
g
l
o
a
n
a
n
n
u
a
l
d
i
s
p
o
s
a
l
0
10
20
30
40
50
N
o
n
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
i
n
g
l
o
a
n
s
Annual disposal
Nonperforming
(trillion yen)
End of FY
5 5- -7 Non 7 Non- -performing loans of financial institutions performing loans of financial institutions
Non-performing loans
During the bubble period, financial institutions poured money into the real estate sector (more than 100 trillion
yen), taking real estate itself as collateral for loans. When the bubble burst, the construction and real estate
sectors failed to make a profit and quickly became unable to paytheir debts. With plunging real estate prices, the
liquidation of real estate collateral proved insufficient to cover loans. Thus, non-performing loans quickly
accumulated on a massive scale.
Disposal of non-performing loans
The disposal of NPLs started in 1992. At the time of the adoption of the comprehensive economic package in the
summer of 1992, J apan already recognized the gravityof its NPL problem, based on observation of other
countries’ earlier problems with NPLs. The package that the J apanese government enactedaimed at disposal of
NPLs and recovery of the real estate market and asset prices. The package contained measures such as
liquidation (sales) of real estate collateral, preferential tax treatment on NPL disposal, disclosures of NPLs by the
lending institutions, and resolution of non-bank financial institutions such as housing loan companies. Some
economists and politicians, learning from experiences of other countries, were aware at that time that an injection
of public money would be necessary to dispose of NPLs in the banking sector, however, the general public was
in no mood to support this recapitalization as the public believed that the banking sector itself was the major
cause of the speculative bubble. Only after a series of bankruptcies at major financial institutions took place in
1997 and 1998 was public money injected into financial institutions, which enabled banks to finally dispose of
NPLs to a large degree. The recovery of a sound financial systemwas a key factor in bringing the economy back
in 2002 to the steady (although still weak) growth path.
51
Part VI: Part VI:
Structural Reforms Structural Reforms
in in
The Japanese Development Model The Japanese Development Model
52
Employment system
Main-bank system
Corporate management
Cross share holding
Parts supplier Keiretsu
Industrial policy/regulation
Employment system
Main-bank system
Corporate management
Cross share holding
Parts supplier Keiretsu
Industrial policy/regulation
Major challenge
IT and globalization?
Mega-competition
Aging of labor force
Change of values
Major challenge Major challenge
IT and globalization IT and globalization? ?
Mega Mega- -competition competition
Aging of labor force Aging of labor force
Change of values Change of values
6 6- -1 Japanese System in Transformation 1 Japanese System in Transformation
?Marketization, competition, choice, diversity, own risk
?Cohabitation and competition of systems
based on comparative advantage
?Marketization, competition, choice, diversity, own risk
?Cohabitation and competition of systems
based on comparative advantage
Structural
reform
Rationale of the system
The J apanese-style market system consisted of (i) an employment system utilizing long-term employment,
seniority-based wage structure, on-the-job training and intra-firm labor unions, (ii) a main-bank system,
(iii) corporate management by managers promoted from employees, (iv) corporate groups united by cross
share-holding, (v) a long-standing trade relationship between parts suppliers and assemblyproducers or
between manufacturers and distributors, the so-called keiretsu, and (vi) long-term relationships between
the government and business sectors through industrial policy and public regulations.
It was believed that the aforementioned deep, longstanding relationships would mitigate the problem of
asymmetric information, such as agency problems between employers and employees, and between
bankers and borrowers. It also brought about a long-term perspective in corporate management and
facilitated long-term strategic investment. However, in the post catch-up era, this same system appears to
have helped bring about problems such as the bubble economy of the late 1980s and the persistent low
growth throughout the 1990s and beyond, even to present day.
Changing environment and challenges to the system
The major challenges to the J apanese-style market system are: (i) changes in the industrial structureand
business environment, brought about by an advancement of information and telecommunication
technology, which calls for more flexible and timely management and transactions; (ii) the ongoing
process of globalization and mega-competition; (iii) the aging of the population and workforce; and (iv)
changes in people’s values. These evolving factors have undermined the effectiveness of the traditional
system, and call for a systemic change for further economic development.
Structural reforms and a system evolving for the future
J apan’s ongoing structural reform combines a transformation of the economy into a more market-oriented
system with less government interventions/guidance, while still utilizing the advantages of the traditional
J apanese system. Key words for this reform have been ‘marketization’, ‘choice’, ‘competition’, ‘diversity,’
and ‘own risk.’ There is still great potential for taking further advantage of information sharing. The
government, redefined from its earlier role, needs to create institutions to coordinate with this evolving
system and ensure it fully integrates into this new paradigm. Inreality, the pace of change differs and there
is not a complete and total break with the past. Various systems, some of which are more market-oriented
and others which rely more on institutional trade relations, will continue to co-exist with dynamic
competition among them.
53
Environmental
change
– Financial liberalization
– Strengthening of
corporate financial
basis
– Growing diversity
among banks
Weakening of
main-bank function
– Weakening corporate
governance and
screening/monitoring
during the “ bubble”
period
– Weakening of the
insurance function in
the 1990s
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
????
????????
??????
Up Down Unch.
Share of mainbank loans
Mainbanks changed
Companies whose
bank loans
increased
Companies whose
bank loans largely
increased
Real estate
companies
Banking loan share between 1985 Banking loan share between 1985? ?90 90
among companies expanding loans among companies expanding loans
Economic white paper 1996
6 6- -2 Weakening of main 2 Weakening of main- -bank functions bank functions
54
Lack of corporate discipline during the “ bubble”
6 6- -3 Declining cross share 3 Declining cross share- -holdings holdings
Weak capital market governance due to
cross share-holding
– Weak discipline imposed by capital market
Rapid weakening of cross share-holding
1987 1995 1999
Shares issued by business corporations
ratio of stable holders 29.7% 28.7% 27.9%
(of which) held by FIs 22.0% 20.1% 12.9%
Shares issued by banks
ratio of stable holders 55.7% 53.3% 45.6%
(of which) held by companies 34.4% 32.9% 28.5%
1987 1995 1999
Shares issued by business corporations
ratio of stable holders 29.7% 28.7% 27.9%
(of which) held by FIs 22.0% 20.1% 12.9%
Shares issued by banks
ratio of stable holders 55.7% 53.3% 45.6%
(of which) held by companies 34.4% 32.9% 28.5%
Nissei Research Institute (adjusted for change in disclosure rules)
55
6 6- -4 Weakening of 4 Weakening of
Japanese Japanese- -style employment practices style employment practices
– Aging of workers leading to higher wage cost
– Development of “ external” labor market
• Dependence on part-time and other irregular workers
• Development of temp services
– Lowering of growth of corporate size
– Changes in industry structure, globalization and IT
• Manufacturing industries: skill transfer through OJT,
process innovation, and team work
• Knowledge based industries: higher speed and risk of
innovation, leading to more flexible recruitment from
external labor market and ability-based wage
determination
Disadvantages of the Japanese-Style Labor Market System in the Post Catch-Up Era
There are issues both embedded inside and lurking outside the J apanese-style employment system that spell trouble
for J apan’s future labor situation: (i) differentiation between regular employees and spot or part-time employees,
i.e., a problem in terms of distinct benefits, as part-time workers are not privy to retirement packages and they may
face future earnings shortages; (ii) potential undermining of the system due to changes in consciousness or values
of younger-generation workers; (iii) the absolute necessity of a company tocontinuously grow, in order to be able
to maintain the J apanese-style employment scheme, particularly the seniority-based promotion system; and (iv)
rigidity of personnel (human resources) and resultant inflexibility in adapting new business opportunities and
introducing new technology.
The inability to downsize due to J apan’s aversion to layoffs has made technological advances not only unnecessary
but also unwelcome, and this has become increasingly debilitatingas the share of knowledge-based industry, such
as IT and life-science industries, has expanded rather quickly. In the traditional manufacturing sector, company-
specific technology is highly important, and technology transfer through on-the-job training and process
innovation had built J apan’s competitive edge. In the knowledge-based sectors, however, competitiveness is
determined by technology, and the frontrunner is on the cutting edge. As companies are compelled to employ
professionally-skilled workers directly from an external labor market, compensation must be based on the abilities
and skills of individual workers. The seniority-based wage system becomes an obstacle that chokes away
companies’ growth potential. To facilitate the quick restructuring of companies and branches, it is imperative that
organizations be as flexible as possible.
Anecdotally, there have been many occasions when J apanese-style employment practices have been revised.
However on a macro level, the old system still dominates. Schemes such as the seniority-based wage systems and
corporate pension schemes still contribute to the long-term employment system. A likely scenario in the future
would be that, while traditional employment practices will survive among many manufacturing companies where
company-specific technology, long-term job training, and skill transfer are crucial, more flexiblesystems will
come to prevail among IT and service industries. Thus both the traditional and new employment systems will
coexist according to industry needs.
56
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
J apan
UK
West Germany
USA
Comparison of wage profile
?production workers in manufacturing?
Survey year
J apan: 1994
UK: 1991
Germany? 1972
USA? 1969
??????????
Economic Whitepaper 1996
Wage index: 25-29-year-olds=100
Age groups
W
a
g
e
i
n
d
e
x
Wage profile to change
Seniority-based compensation has been seen as a strong incentive to stay in the same company in
J apan. A cross-country comparison of wage profiles by age groups shows that J apan’s relative
(indexed) wage level is a little lower than those in other countries at younger age groups, while it
is significantly higher from the 30s through the 50s. If the wage profile in the majority of
countries reflects labor productivity by age, then J apan’s wage level has been kept artificially
lower than that warranted by productivity when workers are young, then artificially higher when
the workers become older. However, J apan’s wage profile has been changing in the 21
st
century,
albeit at a slow pace.
USA (25-34=1) J apan (25-29=1)
57
41.8
87.1
100.0
100.0
23.4
0.0
100.0
7.5
97.3
100.0
55.6
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total
Agriculture/Forestry/Fishery
Mining
Construction
Manufactur
Wholesale/Retail
Finance/Securities
Real estate
Transport/Telecom
Electricity/Gas supply
Service
Excessive regulation
Weakening of the sense of risk
Reduced business opportunities
Inadequate business adjustments
Excessive regulation
Weakening of the sense of risk
Reduced business opportunities
Inadequate business adjustments
6 6- -5 Regulatory Reform 5 Regulatory Reform
10,054
10,278
11,402 11,581
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1985 1988 1993 1999
Number of regulations
USA
1977 17%
1988 6.6%
USA
1977 17%
1988 6.6%
JAPAN
1965 47.8%
1990 41.8%
JAPAN
1965 47.8%
1990 41.8%
Percentage of industries under
government regulation in 1990
Economic White Paper 1995
(1) Coverage of regulation (1) Coverage of regulation
Regulatory Reform
Excessive government regulation on businesses and financial institutions tended to weaken their
sense of risk or discouraged risk-taking behavior, dulled the threat of competition, and delayed
their adjusting to changes in the business environment.
‘Economic regulations’ and ‘social regulations’ have numbered more than 10,000 for many years,
according to data produced by the Management and Coordination Agency. At the turn of the
century, that number was actually increasing. But that is not necessarily to say that J apan was
going in the wrong direction. In fact, as regulatory reform proceeds, regulation tends to be
unbundled into several regulations, particularly in the case of partial deregulation. In J apan’s
financial sectors, ambiguous regulations were changed to more specific regulations, and in the
process, the number of regulations increased.
An estimate using input-output table data showed that in 1990, 42% of J apan’s production was
under some kind of regulation (permission, approval, registration, etc.). Apparently, this figure
overstated the amount of regulation because of limitations in data collection (if any part of an
industry was under regulation, then the entire industry was counted as regulated). Still, a
comparison with US regulatory reform revealed that J apan had not yet achieved substantial
reform (as of 1990). In the US, the percentage of regulated industries (on an output basis)
declined significantly during the Ford, Carter, and Reagan administrations’ regulatory reform
period.
Despite a long period of renewed regulatory reform that started after the bubble burst, no
significant drop in regulation was observed in J apan until the late 1990s.
58
(2) Costs Associated with Regulation (2) Costs Associated with Regulation
High-cost structure
High-cost structure
Price differential
Consumer price level
NY 100 vs. Tokyo 141 (1998)
Slow adjustment to
Changes in environment
Slow adjustment to
Changes in environment
High-cost pressure on
tradable industries
Lack of innovation and
new business opportunity
Lack of innovation and
new business opportunity
Manufacturing: Developed
various new products
Non-manufacturing: almost
no new services developed
Price Gaps between Home and Abroad =
Price Gaps between (unregulated) Tradable and (regulated) Non-Tradable Sectors
+ Price Gaps in Tradables Created by Border Protections (tariffs, etc.)
The costs associated with regulation
1) Regulation brings about a high-cost structure. This leads to price differentials between
regulated and not-as-regulated markets, and in J apan’s case, the price differential was between
J apanese and overseas markets. In 1998, consumer prices (in aggregate) were 41% higher in
Tokyo than in New York City (data source: Economic Planning Agency). A high-cost structure
imposes a cost burden on tradable sectors and weakens their international competitiveness.
2) Regulation weakens regulated industries’ incentives to adjust to changes in the economic
environment. Tightly regulated industries tend to perform worsewhen the economic environment
worsens.
3) Regulation restricts opportunities and weakens business’ capacity for innovation. The J apanese
manufacturing sector has developed and commercialized various new products, such as the fax,
VCR, and lap-top computer. The non-manufacturing sector, on the other hand, has merely
imported new services developed in foreign countries (with an exception of rental video shops).
59
(3) Economic effects of the 1990s (3) Economic effects of the 1990s’ ’ regulatory reform regulatory reform
Telecom
Cable TV
Satellite TV
Retail
Farmland
Electricity
Temporary
personnel svcs.
Sector Period
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
Airline
Total
96-97
Effect
6.86
0.30
0.24
3.12
0.68
0.32
0.03
0.17
11.85 tril. yen
Demand expansion
Sector Period Effect
Telecom
Share brokerage
Car exam
Airline
CBond
Oil products
Electricity
Gas supply
Total
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
7.10
0.26
0.49
0.24
0.08
1.78
1.07
0.05
11.33 tril. yen
Economic Planning Agency (1999)
“Total” includes items other than those listed
Consumer surplus expansion
?Annual average)
60
1980s
Late 1970s -- aimed at lowering paperwork costs
1981 -- Administrative Reform Committee, proposed
privatization of NTTPC and JNR
The first half of 1980s -- US-Japan financial sector
consultation, start of financial liberalization
1989 -- US-Japan Structural Impediment Initiative,
discussed regulatory reform, business practices, etc.
1990s
1993 -- “ Hiraiwa Report” proposed liberalization as a
rule
1995 -- Regulatory Reform 3-Year Plan
1998 -- Economic Strategy Committee
(4) History of J apan (4) History of J apan’ ’s regulatory reform up to the 1990s s regulatory reform up to the 1990s
History of Japan’s regulatory reform up to the 1990s
J apan’s regulatory reform process started at the end of the 1970s, mainly aiming to recreate a compact
government and to reduce ‘red-tape’ costs. In 1981, the Second Temporary Council of Research on Public
Administration System (“Daini-Rincho”) was established. It emphasized private sector vitality, international
harmonization and people’s welfare, and advised various administrative reforms. Among others, it advocated
privatization—or at least partial privatization—of three public corporations (NTTPC—a telecom company—in
1985, J apan National Railway in 1987, and J apan Tobacco Monopolyin 1985).
In the early 1980s, J apan’s trade surplus ballooned and international calls strengthened for J apan’s market
opening and regulatory reforms. The J apanese government tried to shift export-led growth to domestic-demand-
led growth on both macroeconomic and microeconomic fronts.
Interest rate liberalization began in the second half of the 1970s, induced by an expansion of national bond
issuance and by the globalization of financial services. In 1984the J oint US-J apan Ad Hoc Group on Yen/Dollar
Exchange Rate, Financial and Capital Market Issues started and promoted financial sector regulatory reform. In
1989, J apan and the US initiated the Structural Impediment Initiative (SII), under which they discussed J apan’s
market opening from the context of changes in regulation and business practices.
After the bubble burst, when the economy was stagnating and the yen was appreciating, regulatory reform came
to be seen as the key to revitalize the economy, by (1) overcoming business’ and household sectors’ lack of
confidence, (2) lowering high business costs, and (3) enhancing business opportunity in the domestic market.
In 1993, an advisory group to the government of J apan released the so-called ‘Hiraiwa Report,’ advocating that
economic regulation should be liberalized as a rule, while social regulation should be minimized under the
principle of ‘self responsibility.’ In March 1995, the government adopted a comprehensive action plan for
regulatory reform (which was subsequently revised in 1998). It addressed 1,091 lines of regulations and set a
concrete time schedule to dismantle them.
61
Japan has tended to avoid “ trial and error” process
– Even in the US, the airline case was exceptional
– Privatization in UK lacked competition scheme
– Price cap system in UK
“ Bottom-up” in the US, “ top-down” in Japan/UK
Japan’s regulatory body was also an administrator
of industrial policies
– US, UK: independent regulatory commission
– Checks and balances with industrial policy
administration, competition offices and local
government
Empirical analyses had not been utilized
EPA team conducted CGE-model-based analyses in late 1990s
( (? ?) Characteristics of regulatory reform process in J apan ) Characteristics of regulatory reform process in J apan
up to the 1990s as compared to that in the US and UK up to the 1990s as compared to that in the US and UK
Characteristics of Japan’s regulatory reform (up to the 1990s)
-- Because the J apanese government tended to avoid the trial and error correction process, it took a long
time to consider new schemes and persuade all stakeholders. However, in the case of network industry
reforms where innovation proceeded rapidly, reform delay could turn out to be a fatal mistake. The
UK’s privatization process of its national public utilities was a good example of the trial-and-error way
from which J apan can learn. Also, the UK’s setting of the price-cap scheme was a typical trial-and-error
process.
-- In the US, deregulation processes were often triggered by new entrants taking advantage of legal or
administrative loopholes, without prior consent by incumbents and regulatory authorities. A typical case
was MCI’s entry in the long-distance telecommunications market. In J apan, such loopholes were hard to
find and businesses tend to avoid a struggle with regulatory agencies, with notable exceptions of door-
to-door parcel delivery service and lower pricing by a few taxi cabcompanies.
-- In the US and UK, semi-independent regulatory commissions carry out actual regulatory
administration, while separate government organizations cover industrial policies and regulatory design.
The judicial sector, antitrust authorities, and—in the US—state governments were also involved. In
J apan, both regulatory administration and industrial design, among other things, were directed by a
single government agency, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI). And while a
separate authority, the Fair Trade Commission, was in charge of governing competition, it did not exert
visible influence. A concentration of both planning and execution (and monitoring) functions caused
conflicts of interest and made the process non-transparent.
-- In J apan’s regulatory reform process, empirical/scientific assessments of existing regulation and their
reform have seldom been utilized. In the late 1990s, some cost-benefit analyses and CGE-model-based
analyses were beginning to be carried out.
62
Change in policy formation style
-- Strengthening the role of Cabinet for policy formation
-- Weakening the influence of the MOF
-- Weakening the voice of the Liberal Democratic Party
Change in policy formation style
-- Strengthening the role of Cabinet for policy formation
-- Weakening the influence of the MOF
-- Weakening the voice of the Liberal Democratic Party
Settlement of the “Bubble”economy aftermath
-- Banking reform, esp. disposal of NPLs
-- Budget consolidation, esp. reduction in public works
Settlement of the “Bubble”economy aftermath
-- Banking reform, esp. disposal of NPLs
-- Budget consolidation, esp. reduction in public works
Measures to cope with depopulation and aging
-- Reform of social security, health and disability insurance
Measures to cope with depopulation and aging
-- Reform of social security, health and disability insurance
6 6- -6 PM Koizumi 6 PM Koizumi’ ’s economic reform measures s economic reform measures
(2001 (2001 – – 2006) 2006)
The Koizumi Cabinet reforms
Former Prime Minister J unichiroKoizumi conducted a series of major reforms of the J apanese economy
between April 2001 and September 2006. Some were successfully carried out while others met with only
nominal success. The continuing agenda of his reform initiatives was then inherited by the next cabinet of
PM ShinzoAbe. Koizumi’s reform efforts can be classified into three categories: (i) reform of the policy
formation process itself; (ii) cleaning up the aftermath of the ‘bubble economy’ of the late 1980s and
subsequent long-term slump; and (iii) forward-looking reform of the J apanese economic and social
structures and institutions.
Transformation of policy formation process
J apan’s policy formation process inside the Administration used to be rather ambiguous and lacked clear
leadership. Policy proposals were regularly originated from the ministries in charge, through massive
negotiations with other ministries and particularly with the powerful Ministry of Finance. Then they were
intensively discussed within the leading Liberal Democratic Party through a complicated procedure, and
finally they had to be approved by the General Affairs Committeeof the LDP with the consensus of all the
members—and all of this before the bills could be submitted to the Diet. The ruling party LDP’sleadership
was broken into factions which controlled various political campaign’s financing and recommended
candidates for ministers in the Cabinet to the PM. Therefore, the decision-making relied heavily on the
balance of power among these LDP factions.
PM Koizumi substantially altered this regime through his initiatives to increase prime ministerial
leadership. He did this by strengthening the power of the cabinet, via (1) establishing the Council on
Economic and Fiscal Policy to be chaired by himself, the PM, (2) expanding cabinet staff, (3) weakening
the MOF in policy formation, and (4) strengthening control over LDP factions.
Clearing the ‘bubble’ aftermath
The ‘bubble’ economy of the late 1980s and subsequent extended slump left the J apanese economy with
major problems, and the Koizumi Administration confronted the long-lasting remnants of the burst bubble.
First, the government aggressively pursued the disposal of accumulated non-performing loans, more or less
getting rid of them. Second, the Koizumi administration attackedthe massive budget deficit, halving the
‘primary’ deficit from the 2002 peak level. However, the stock of the general government’s debt continues
to be large relative to the size of the economy (in excess of 160% of GDP).
(continue to the next page)
63
Delegation of authority from public sector to private sector
-- Privatization of the postal service/postal savings
-- Reform of state-owned financial institutions
-- Privatization of public highway corporations
-- “Marketizationtest”of public businesses
-- Regulatory reform, esp. creation of special zones
Delegation of authority from public sector to private sector
-- Privatization of the postal service/postal savings
-- Reform of state-owned financial institutions
-- Privatization of public highway corporations
-- “Marketizationtest”of public businesses
-- Regulatory reform, esp. creation of special zones
Delegation of authority from central to local government
-- ‘Trinity reform’ of function, revenue,
and intra-gov’t transfers
-- Promotion of merger of municipalities
Delegation of authority from central to local government
-- ‘Trinity reform’ of function, revenue,
and intra-gov’t transfers
-- Promotion of merger of municipalities
Private sector reform
-- Strengthening of the Fair Trade Law to bar collusion
-- Regulatory reform, esp. creation of special zones
-- Corporate governance reform, facilitating M&A
Private sector reform
-- Strengthening of the Fair Trade Law to bar collusion
-- Regulatory reform, esp. creation of special zones
-- Corporate governance reform, facilitating M&A
Reforms to cope with rapid aging and depopulation
J apan is now one of the most rapidly aging economies in the world, where the age-dependency ratio has been
rapidly increasing. J apan’s population hit its peak in 2004 (at 127.8 million) and startedto decline in 2005 for
the first time in its history. The population share of the ages 65 or over, that stood at 17.3% at the turn of the
century, is expected to climb up to 22.5% in 2010, 27.8% in 2020, and 35.7% in 2050.
The social security reform has been conducted, including public pension, health insurance and nursery care
insurance. However, as the speed of aging has been very rapid, further reforms are needed.
Initiatives to shift authority from the public sector to the private sector
Another major Koizumi reform initiative was to shift functions and resources from the public sector to the
private sector. Some major privatization programs were conducted, however as seen in the Postal reform
which is to be completed in 2018, they were often nominal and subject to future political environments.
Initiatives to shift authority from the central government to local governments
Another major category of reform was ‘decentralization’, i.e. a shift of authorities/functions and budgetary
resources from the central government to local governments. The ‘trinity reform’ of (1) shifting
functions/authorities to the local government, (2) shifting the tax base from the central to local governments,
and (3) reducing transfer taxes and categorical grants to local governments was designed in order to weaken
central government leadership and strengthen local autonomy. As this set of reforms is still underway, strong
leadership is necessary to attain the initial objectives.
64
Expansion of Corporate
Activity and Investment
Self-reliance
of Individuals
Compact and
Efficient Government
Corporate governance
Corporate accounts disclosure
Corporate restructuring
FDI into J apan IT revolution
Employment practices
Corporate pension (401k type)
J ob choice society
Human capital investment
Personal income taxation
Corporate taxation
Entrepreneurship promotion
Social security
Education reform
Labor market liberalization
Budget consolidation
Administrative reform
FILP reform
Local gov’t autonomy
Financial systemreform
Regulatory reform
Electronic government
Public investment reform
Information network
SME policy
Portfolio investment diversification
6 6- -7 Structural Reform: Agenda for Sustainable Growth 7 Structural Reform: Agenda for Sustainable Growth
Building Institutions of Coordination:
From Interventionist Government to Coordinator Government
The necessity for basic structural reform, or marketization, extends to a wide range of the
J apanese economy. Three sectors of the economy have their own reform agenda: i) business and
financial sectors must reform themselves to enhance business andinvestment opportunity; ii)
individuals or the household sector must accept the discipline of self-reliance; and iii) the
government sector must transform itself into a compact and efficient government
respecting/utilizing market forces and utilizing decentralization in a strategic manner.
Changes in business and the government sectors must be compatible with (and accompanied by)
those in the household sector. Self-reliance of individuals involves shifts in lifestyle, from the
traditional reliance on the business community to self-decision-making and risk-taking in
choosing jobs and careers that require investments in the individual, by the individual. Self-
responsibility should be nurtured in the business sector, as opposed to relying on protection
through regulation. The banking sector should stand on its own without the MOF-led ‘convoy’
system’.
Generally speaking, in the business sector, various reforms havealready been started to get out of
the long stagnation of the 1990s. As for the government sector, some reform initiatives have
started in the areas connected to business, such as regulatory reforms and partial tax reforms.
However, for public sector-specific reform areas such as administrative reform and government
decentralization, the process has been much delayed. Budgetary reform had just begun under the
Koizumi administration. As for the household sector, it will take a long time for the majority of
people to change their lifestyle and way of thinking.
As the majority of the reform efforts and new initiatives shouldbe happening in the cross-sections
of the three sectors, the building of ‘institutions of coordination’ or, in other words, nurturing the
‘social capital of intra- and inter-sector networks’ is imperative. The role of the government
should be redefined in precisely this context. That is, a changefrom ‘interventionist government’
to ‘coordinator government’ is now most urgently called for.
65
The Evolution of a Development Paradigm: The Evolution of a Development Paradigm:
A Simplified Review A Simplified Review
After WWII
1960s (early 1970s)
ISI
1980s
SAP
End of the 20
th
C.
& Beyond
PRSP
New Political
Economy of
Development
???
-2015
MDGs
BHN
Role of Government
1985-
Globalization
1989-
Governance
NIE
Social Capital
The New Institutional Economics (NIE) that international development finance institutions started to utilize
in the 1990s has two major principles: 1) institutions define economic performance, and 2) institutions can
be analyzed by microeconomics (of incentive structure). Therefore, it is in a way a fusionof traditional
institutional economics and neo-classical economics. (Neo-classical economics is the one that provided the
basis for ‘structural adjustments’ in the 1980s.)
This new “economics of institutions” is essentially about: 1) reducing transaction costs and 2) facilitating
information flows. Roles of the public sector are captured in the treatment of ownership by the government
and coordination that reduces transaction costs and ensures proper information flow (North). Herein lie the
roots of the good governance arguments. The NIE also defines thetimeframeof the economics of
institutions (Williamson). While governance as a ‘play of the game’ (improving management) has a time
periodof 1 to 10 years, governance as ‘rules of the game’ (fixing the institutional environment) has a time
frequency of 10 to 100 years.
These theoriesare all relevant when we talk about ‘institutions of coordination.’ Public-Private
Partnerships (PPP) and the power structure of related institutions such as decision-making bodies,
regulatory bodies, and partners should be developed in an adaptive manner and given a sufficient amount
of time.
66
Part VII: Part VII:
Aging Japan, Aging Asia Aging Japan, Aging Asia
67
(Source?National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimate (Dec.2006?
Birth rate
Until early 1970s
Around 2.2
2000 1.36
2005 1.26
Medium case
Same level as now
2030 1.24
2055 1.26
Lower case
Drop until 2020s Drop until 2020s
2030 1.04
2055 1.06
7 7- -1 Aging Japan 1 Aging Japan
Population in Japan
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1
9
5
0
1
9
6
0
1
9
7
0
1
9
8
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
3
0
2
0
4
0
2
0
5
0
million
Lower case
Medium case
Higher
????
?????
million
Unavoidable depopulation and aging Unavoidable depopulation and aging
Depopulation and rapid aging
According to the 50-year projection created by the National Institute of Populationand Social
Security Research released in December 2006, in the standard case, J apan’s population begins to
decrease after its peak of 127.8 million in 2005, and falls to 90 million by 2055. This scenario
assumes the birth rate (average number of babies born per female) to be virtually unchanged from
the current level of 1.25. In a more pessimistic case, assuming a further drop in the birth rate to
nearly one, the population would be 85 million in 2055.
At the same time, the aging of the population is set to further accelerate. According to the
standard scenario, people 65 years and older, now 20% of total population, would reach 40% in
2055, and those under 15 years old, now 14%, would be a mere 8%.
The government of J apan is deeply concerned with this depopulation phenomenon, as it would
create a shortage in the labor force and place a heavier burden regarding social security
contributions on the working generation. Therefore, various measures have been taken to
encourage couples to have more children. So far, the effect seems to be limited and the trends of
depopulation and aging appear unstoppable.
68
Western Western
Europe Europe
Late 14
th
c.
70?80 mil.
40?50 mil
Black death
?0.3%
0.4%
Labor
scarcity
Nation
Time
Decline
Reason
Japan Japan
1730?1800
32 mil.
30 mil.
Famine
Late marriage
Less birth
0.2%
0.3%
Agricultural
technology
Ireland Ireland
Late 19
th
c.
2 mil. In 10
years
Famine
Immigration
0.7%
1.6%
Change to
livestock farming
Hungary Hungary
1980?
0.3% decline
annually
Lower birth
rate
0.6%
0.9%
Marketization
Investment
GDP
GDP
Per capita
Impact
Source: Economic planning Agency (2000)
Cases of economic development under depopulation Cases of economic development under depopulation
Will depopulation bring about economic decline?
It is generally believed that, with depopulation, an economy decelerates or shrinks. However, during
the 2
nd
millennium, a few cases were seen in which economies grew despite population decline.
In J apan in the 18
th
century, the population decreased due partly to famine in Tohoku and epidemic
diseases at an initial stage of urbanization, and partly as a result of late marriages and a smaller
number of babies born to couples in large cities. However, thanks to agricultural technological
progress and development of new fields, farm production increased.
In Ireland in the 19
th
century, depopulation set in as a result of famine and outgoingimmigration.
Labor scarcity encouraged an industrial transformation from labor-intensive agriculture to land-
intensive livestock farming, bringing about higher productivity.
In Hungary, the population has been both decreasing and aging since the 1980s, due to a lower birth
rate, but thanks to catching up technologicallyand the introduction of the market economy, the
growth rate has been on the positive side.
In Western Europe in the 14
th
and 15
th
centuries, the black death wiped out nearly half of the
population. The resultant farm labor shortage widened the per capita farmland, and per capita output
increased significantly.
Lessons from these cases
These examples suggest that a society under the process of depopulation does not necessarily have to
experience economic and social decline. If the social system is reformed, industry structure
transformed, new technology introduced, and thus productivity heightened, economic development
can be attainable even in this challenging environment.
69
East Asia's Saving, Investment,
and CAB
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
(
%
o
f
G
D
P
)
Gross national savings, incl. NCTR
Gross domestic investment (% of GDP)
CAB (GNS-GDI)
Gross domestic savings
East Asia’s saving ratio (GDS) increased from 22% to 32% in the
1970s, and reached 37% before the AFC, facilitating a healthy
increase in the investment ratio…
The CA deficit also expanded in the 1990s until the AFC came
about. And then ?
70
Age Dependency Ratio
(dependents to working-age population, %)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1
9
6
0
1
9
7
0
1
9
8
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
3
0
2
0
4
0
2
0
5
0
Higih Income Cos. Japan
Low & Middle Income Cos. East Asia & Pacific LMICs
Is Doomsday Imminent ?
Determinants of the pri vate saving ratio:
Income (level), rates of return, uncertainty, domestic/foreign borrowing constraints, financial depth,
fiscal policy, pension system, income/wealth distribution, and demographics …
71
Part VIII: Part VIII:
Revolutions and the Evolution Revolutions and the Evolution
of Economic Systems of Economic Systems
72
Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems
(based on Yukio Noguchi, (based on Yukio Noguchi, “ “ IT makes small IT makes small - -scale scale- -organization economy advantageous organization economy advantageous” ” Nikkei, April 5, 2002) Nikkei, April 5, 2002)
Private ownership of
the means of production
State ownership of
the means of production
Larger-scale-organization oriented Smaller-scale-organization oriented
Primitive Market Economy
IT-driven Market Economy
Capitalism
Socialism Utopian Socialism
Industrial Revolution
Socialist Revolution
IT Revolution
Imperialism
Monopoly Capitalism
Japan under the
1940-system
The US economy after the IT revolution
Linux
USSR
Industrialized China
China under Mao Zedong
(Maoist China)
?
73
… … Japan Japan’ ’s Development Experience s Development Experience
Thank You !
doc_719560212.pdf
Japan was devastated during World War II (1941-45).
1
Post
Post
-
-
war Development of
war Development of
the J apanese Economy
the J apanese Economy
? ? Development, J apanese/Asian Style Development, J apanese/Asian Style ? ?
April 2007
Shigeru T. Otsubo*
GSID, Nagoya University
(w/ inputs fromProf. A.Furukawa, RitsumeikanUniv.)
For Students in the EDP&M Program
For Students in the Economic Development Policy and Management Program
Prof. Shigeru T. OTSUBO
The purpose of this presentation is four-fold:
1) to introduce the macroeconomic development process of the postwar J apanese economy (the
so-called “Miracle Recovery”);
2) to explore the J apan-specific (mostly microeconomic) elements of a market system that
supported her rapid development;
3) to show the need for adjustments in the ‘Japanese-style market system’ in the post-catch-up
era; and
4) to demonstrate the evolution and revolutions in economic systems underlying a development
process.
____________________________________
* The presenter wishes to acknowledge:
i) material inputs provided by Prof. Akira Furukawa, RitsumeikanUniversity, and
ii) valuable comments provided by Ms. Debra J . Saito, Economist, Federal Reserve
Bank of New York.
2
Objectives of This Presentation Objectives of This Presentation
The purpose of this presentation is four-fold:
1) to introduce the macroeconomic development process of the
postwar J apanese economy (the so-called “Miracle
Recovery”);
2) to explore the J apan-specific(mostly microeconomic)
elements of a market systemthat supported her rapid
development;
3) to show the need for adjustments inthe ‘Japanese-style
market system’ of the post-catch-up era; and
4) to demonstrate the evolution and revolutions in economic
systems underlying a development process.
To start with, macroeconomic factors that supported J apan’s strong post-war economic recovery such as high
investment ratios backed by savings mobilization, technology progress, flexible labor supply, and favorable
external conditions will be reviewed. Then, market practices of a long-term nature that were often referred to as
elements of the ‘J apanese-style market system’ are surveyed. These elements include labor market practices,
keiretsu business relations, a main-bank system, and business-government relations that feature detailed
regulations and industrial policies. The long-run macroeconomic policies conducted by the J apanese government
including the ‘medium-term economic plans’ will be introduced.
The post-WWII J apanese economic development was a process of catch-up to the other industrialized economies.
Economic policies and corporate strategies were geared to this utmost mandate in our minds—to catch-up. This
general goal was shared by all economic agents as a national consensus. Macroeconomic policies, particularly
monetary policies, were conducted in order to provide funds to strategic sectors for economic development. The
J apanese-style market system functioned fairly well in strengthening international competitiveness among the
tradable-goods-producing industries. Although the domestic markets were heavilyprotected in the early stages of
J apan’s post-war development, the potential threat of global competition provided sufficient incentives for
productivity growth as J apanese industries looked for export markets. On the other hand, investments in non-
tradable sectors were not sufficiently funded. As a result, development of non-tradable sectors lagged behind.
Elements of the J apanese post-war development system that were competition-restricting in nature functioned well
during her catch-up process.
When the catch-up process was over, however, those competition-restrictive elements became harmful. With the
energy crises of the 1970s, the J apanese economy went into an era of transition. In the 1980s, limited productive
investment opportunities in the domestic market coupled with loose monetary policy in the face of the yen’s rapid
appreciation fueled speculative investments in securities and property markets, creating a financial bubble. After
the bubble burst in the early 1990s, throughout the so-called lost decade, the J apanese economy has been coping
with the mounting needs of fundamental structural reforms.
Where is ‘J apanese-Style Development’ heading now? Let us explore the evolution of J apan’s(socio-) economic
development system.
3
Contents Contents
Part I: Postwar Economic Reforms and Rehabilitation Part I: Postwar Economic Reforms and Rehabilitation
(1945 (1945 – – mid 1950s) mid 1950s)
Part II: High Economic Growth Period Part II: High Economic Growth Period
(mid 1950s (mid 1950s – – early 1970s) early 1970s)
Part III: Socio Part III: Socio- -Economic Outcome of Rapid Growth Economic Outcome of Rapid Growth
( ( – – 1970s 1970s – – ) )
Part IV: Japanese Part IV: Japanese- -Style Market System for a Miracle Recovery Style Market System for a Miracle Recovery
Part V: The Evolution of the Japanese Development Model Part V: The Evolution of the Japanese Development Model
End of the Catching End of the Catching- -Up Process to the Bubble Economy Up Process to the Bubble Economy
( (1970s 1970s – – 1980s) 1980s)
Lost Decade and Beyond Lost Decade and Beyond (1990s (1990s - - ) )
Part VI: Structural Reforms in The Japanese Development Model Part VI: Structural Reforms in The Japanese Development Model
Part VII: Aging Japan, Aging Asia Part VII: Aging Japan, Aging Asia
Part VIII: Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems Part VIII: Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems
(References)
On Development History, J apanese System
1. TakafusaNakamura and KonosukeOdaka, eds. Economic History of Japan 1914-1955 – A Dual
Structure. Oxford Univ. Press, 1999.
2. TakafusaNakamura. The Postwar Japanese Economy – Its Development and Structure, 1937-1994.
2nd ed. Univ. of Tokyo Press, 1995.
3. Ian Inkster. Japanese Industrialization – Historical and Cultural Perspectives. Routledge, 2001.
4. J uroTeranishi. Evolution of the Economic System in Japan. Edward Elgar, 2005.
5. Kozo Yamamura, ed. The Economic Emergence of Modern Japan. Cambridge Univ. Press, 1997.
6. Hirohisa Kohamaand MachikoWatanabe. Economic Development in Postwar Japan (in J apanese).
Nihon HyoronSha,1996.
7. Yoshiro Miwa and J . Mark Ramseyer. The Fable of the Keiretsu -- Urban Legends of the J apanese
Economy. Univ. of Chicago Press, 2006
8. Yukio Noguchi. Economics of the Bubble: What happened to the Japanese Economy (in J apanese).
Nikkei, 1992.
9. Yukio Noguchi. The 1940 Regime: Goodbye War-time Economy (in J apanese). Toyo Keizai Shinpo
Sha, 1995.
10. Yukio Noguchi. Business-led Revolution in Japanese Economy: From Big Organization to Small
Organization (in J apanese). Nikkei, 2002.
On Industrial Policy
11. MikioSumiya, ed. A History of Japanese Trade and Industry Policy. Oxford Univ. Press,2000.
12. Chalmers J ohnson. MITI and the Japanese Miracle – The Growth of Industrial Policy 1925-1975.
Stanford Univ. Press, 1982.
4
Human loss – 1.85 million (2.8 million) deaths
Material loss – 25% of national wealth
Industrial production dropped to 1/10 of the
prewar level.
Hyper-inflation with commodity shortage
Devastation during WWII Devastation during WWII
(1941 (1941- -1945) 1945)
Devastation during WWII
J apan was devastated during World War II (1941-45). The human loss mounted to 1.85 million (about 4% of
the entire population) and 680 thousand injured or missing. The material loss mounted to about 25% of
national wealth excluding military stock (Economic StabilizationBoard report of 1949). Another estimate of
the death toll was 2.8 million (Heibonsha Encyclopaedia, 1989).
Industrial production dropped just after the war to one-tenth of the pre-war level (24% of the pre-war level in
consumer products and only 8% in industrial input products). An increase in budgetary expenditure such as
veterans’ payment and compensation for the war damage, together with a commodity shortage, caused
hyper-inflation.
5
Successes and Failures in J apanese Economic Development
Phase I (1945-1960s)
Catching-up process
-- Post-war
democratization
-- Common goal
-- Savings shortage &
directed allocation
-- Japanese-style
Market system
- Employment
practices
- Main bank system
- Corporate governance
- Gov’t intervention &
public policies
Phase I (1945-1960s)
Catching-up process
-- Post-war
democratization
-- Common goal
-- Savings shortage &
directed allocation
-- Japanese-style
Market system
- Employment
practices
- Main bank system
- Corporate governance
- Gov’t intervention &
public policies
Phase II (1970s–’80s)
Failure to reform &
“bubble” economy
-- “Front-runner”
necessity for
competitive market
-- Failure to transform
the system
-- Expansive behavior
by businesses/banks
-- Macroeconomic
policy to cope with
yen’s appreciation
-- ‘Bubble’
Phase II (1970s–’80s)
Failure to reform &
“bubble” economy
-- “Front-runner”
necessity for
competitive market
-- Failure to transform
the system
-- Expansive behavior
by businesses/banks
-- Macroeconomic
policy to cope with
yen’s appreciation
-- ‘Bubble’
Phase III (1990s - )
Long stagnation
& beyond
-- Excess capacity
-- NPL and financial
crisis
-- Confidence crisis
-- Deflation
-- Expansive macro-
economic policy
- Zero interest
- Budget deficit
-- Structural reform
- Regulatory
- Financial, etc.
Phase III (1990s - )
Long stagnation
& beyond
-- Excess capacity
-- NPL and financial
crisis
-- Confidence crisis
-- Deflation
-- Expansive macro-
economic policy
- Zero interest
- Budget deficit
-- Structural reform
- Regulatory
- Financial, etc.
Phases of the Postwar Japanese Development
Phase I: Postwar Reconstruction and Catch-up
Phase I of the economic development after WWII was from 1945 through the 1960s. A common purpose shared by
business, household and the government sectors was to catch up with North American and European industrial economies.
The collective and concerted actions coordinated by the government, often competition-restrictive, were effective in
achieving this goal.
A major obstacle on the macroeconomic front was the shortage of savings. The government created a system to mobilize
and direct funds to key industries for rapid economic development. On a microeconomic front, the so-called ‘J apanese-
style market system ’ was established, which emphasized building long-running relationships between economic agents.
Stable relationships were built on a foundation including (1) the long-term employment system, (2) corporate governance
built on cross-share holdings among businesses and with other financial institutions, and (3) the main-bank system. And
together with active public policies/guidance, they played an important role in J apan’s ‘catching up’ with industrialized
economies.
Phase II: Era of Transition and the ‘Bubble Economy’
In phase II (early 1970s—late 1980s), the J apanese economy caught up with other industrial economies in the world. The
clear, common goal had been achieved. J apanese business and household sectors should have changed their behavior
from the one based on collective actions to the more autonomous one of coping with their own risks under a more
competitive environment. However, we failed to change upon the celebrated success with our old system. Collective
business practices and government interventions largely remained. With a lack of innovative investment opportunities and
poor corporate governance, business firms and financial institutions rushed into speculation in financial and real estate
markets, creating the ‘bubble’ economy. Expansive macroeconomic policies adopted in order to cope with yen’s rapid
appreciation in the middle of the 1980s also served to fuel the speculative bubble. Then, the ‘bubble’ burst in the face of
restrictive monetary policies, first in the stock market in 1990, and then in the property market in 1991.
Phase III Lost Decade and Beyond
In phase III (the 1990s and on), the J apanese economy struggled with the aftermath of the burst ‘bubble’. Excessive
investment, excessive employment, and excessive lending and over-borrowing that had piled up during the bubble
development period had resulted in excess capacity and mounting non-performing loans. The necessary stock adjustment
of this ‘excess’, however, has been delayed in consideration of job security. This delay in adjustment resulted in long-
lasting stagnation, persistent deflation, and financial crises, in spite of massive expansion of government expenditures and
the money supply. This, in turn, created a public domestic debt overhang. In order for the J apanese economy to get out of
this trap, a comprehensive strategy and bold structural reforms are indispensable. The J apanese economy is in the middle
of a multi-pronged fight to (1) stop deflation, (2) reform the public sector and its budget, (3) resolve problems associated
with non-performing loans and stabilize the financial system, and (4) to stimulate business sector confidence through
regulatory reforms, tax reforms, and a conducive environment for technology development.
The J apanese society, facing a rapid aging of its now-declining population, is now also confronted with reform needs in its
social security system.
6
Part I: Postwar Economic Reforms Part I: Postwar Economic Reforms
and Rehabilitation and Rehabilitation
(1945 (1945 – – mid 1950s) mid 1950s)
7
Zaibatsu dissolution
Dissolution of
Zaibatsu conglomerates;
Prevention of economic
power concentration
Zaibatsu Zaibatsu dissolution dissolution
Dissolution of
Zaibatsu conglomerates;
Prevention of economic
power concentration
Agrarian reform
Elimination of
tenant system;
Growing #of
independent farmers
Agrarian reform Agrarian reform
Elimination of
tenant system;
Growing #of
independent farmers
Democratization of the Economy Democratization of the Economy
Fair market rules
Anti-trust Law;
Securities Exchange
Law; etc.
Fair market rules Fair market rules
Anti-trust Law;
Securities Exchange
Law; etc.
1.1 Post 1.1 Post- -war Economic Reforms war Economic Reforms
Labor market reform
Legalization of labor
movement;
Establishment of
labor unions
Labor market reform Labor market reform
Legalization of labor
movement;
Establishment of
labor unions
Postwar Reforms
The allied force (General Headquarters =GHQ) first tried to democratize J apan on both political and
economic fronts. The GHQ believed that a concentration of economic power in a limited number of
companies, financial institutions and landlords’ hands, coupled with the lack of democratic forces such
as labor unions, had been the hotbed of militarism in prewar J apan. Thus, the so-called ‘economic
democratization’ reforms were carried out first.
1. Zaibatsu dissolution (1945): Zaibatsu were big conglomerates of major companies and banks, often
controlled by a share-holding company. The most powerful ones were Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, and
Yasuda. To eliminate concentration of economic power, zaibatsu were dissolved and share holding
companies were prohibited. Fair Trade Law and the Economic Power Excessive Concentration
Elimination Law was enacted in 1947.
2. Fair market rules (1947): American-style market rules were imported. The most important laws were the
Anti-trust Law and the Securities Exchange Law, enacted in order to secure market competition and
transparency.
3. Agricultural reform (1945): The government purchased land from absentee landlords and all the tenant
land in excess of one hectare, and sold them to tenant farmers at nominal prices. The percentage of tenant
land dropped from 46% to10%. The number of Independent farmers increased.
4. Labor market reform (1945): Through an enactment of the Labour Union Law (1945), Labour Relations
Adjustment Law, and Labour Standards Law (1947), the organization of labor unions was promoted and
their labor movements were legalized.
5. Education reform (1947): The compulsory education was extended from 6 to 9 years.
8
The US’s strategy changes to allowre-industrialization
Economic reconstruction Economic reconstruction
Priority production strategy Priority production strategy
Priority sectors:
Steel, coal mining, electricity,
shipbuilding, marine transportation,
railways, chemical, etc.
J oseph Dodge’s stabilization policy in 1949
-- Macroeconomic tightening
-- Balanced budget on a consolidated basis
-- Forced rationalization in private businesses
-- Unification of yen exchange rate to 360J PY/1USD
Severe
recession
1 1- -2 Economic Reconstruction and Re 2 Economic Reconstruction and Re- -industrialization industrialization
Favorable international conditions
-- Sustained world economic growth
-- International trade and investment development
Cold War
Korean War
Priority Production Strategy
In 1946, high inflation persisted despite a contingent measure restricting surplus purchasing power. To
rapidly reconstruct the economy despite shortages of commodities and investment funds, the government
in 1947 implemented a strategy to concentrate resources in priority industrial sectors such as steel, coal
mining, electricity, shipbuilding, marine and railway transportation, and chemical fertilizer. Industrial
production rapidly recovered from 31% of the pre-war level in J anuary 1947 to 80% of that level, in April
1949.
Change in the US Strategy toward Japanese Recovery
In the early stage of recovery, the GHQ’s stance was to prevent J apan from regaining military power. As
such, a full recovery of heavy industries was not necessarily permitted in the beginning. However, as the
Cold War worsened, the US attitude gradually changed to allow J apan to re-industrialize and to become an
independent economy. In 1949, a series of severe belt-tightening policies wasconducted by Joseph Dodge,
a US banker who came to J apan as an economic adviser to the GHQ. Policies included enforcement of a
balanced budget, and reduction of both price subsidies and inflation, i.e. stabilization. As a result, the
economy fell into a serious slump. In 1949, a fixed exchange rate of 360 yen per US dollar was introduced
in order to spur J apan’s international trade. This exchange rate wasbroadly perceived as overvalued given
the weak competitiveness of J apan’s business sector then.
In 1949, a major reform in the tax system was also carried out following recommendations made by a
team of experts headed by Carl Shoup. This reform focused mostly on direct taxes such as personal
income tax.
This tight policy package strengthened the business environment and in retrospect, provided the basis for
economic development. However in the short run, it pushed the J apanese economy into a severe recession.
Favorable External Conditions
The Korean War, which broke out in 1950, resulted in high military demand and triggered rapid
reconstruction of the J apanese economy. By 1952, Japan restored the real GDP level to a level
comparable with that of 1935. After the Korean War ended (1950-53), the J apanese economy fully
benefited from the sustained development of the world economy.
9
Introduction of new technology to fill the gap
– Steel (strip mills); shipbuilding (electric
welding); chemical fertilizers; synthetic
fiber; consumer electric appliances, etc.
– “ First machine is imported and the second
machine is produced domestically”
‘Improved Engineering’
Rural-urban transfer of young workforce
‘Shudan Shushoku’
Industrial Policy
– Business Rationalization Promotion Act
(1952)
– Government-owned financial institutions –
JDB, ExIm Bank, Small Business Credit
Corporation
– Establishment of long-term credit banks
1.3 From rehabilitation to enhancing 1.3 From rehabilitation to enhancing
competitiveness competitiveness
Domestic Factors
Domestic factors that enabled high growth included a high investment ratio supported by savings mobilization,
migration of the younger-generation workforce from the rural area to cities by ‘collective employment’ (Shudan
Shushoku, 1954-1975), and high productivity growth brought about by the introduction of foreign technology and
‘improved engineering’. Shudan Shushoku increased workforce of 15-24 years of age in Tokyo by 1 million during
1955-1965.
Industrial Development and Government’s Industrial Policy
An expansion of business investment in the early 1950s shows that J apanese businesses shifted from phases of
rehabilitation to one of strengthening international competitiveness through rationalization of production. Foreign
technology was actively absorbed in key industries such as stripmills in steelmaking, electric welding in
shipbuilding, and other technologies for chemical fertilizers and heavy electric machinery. New industries such as
the automobile, synthetic fibre and consumer electric machinery also started to bring in new technology that
promoted autonomous growth.
Government policies supported business development. The BusinessRationalization Promotion Act of 1952
provided a special depreciation scheme for modernizing equipment in key industries. Government created financial
institutions such as the J apan Development Bank, the ExImBank, and the Medium and Small Business Credit
Corporation. The long-term credit bank system was introduced in order to provide public funds and long-term loans
to the business sector.
Return to the International Community
In 1951, the San Francisco Peace Treaty was co-signed with the major allied-force countries, and J apan regained
independence. J apan joined the United Nations in 1956. J apan also joined the International Monetary Fund and the
International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (the World Bank) in 1953, and the General Agreement on
Tariffs and Trade in 1955. In the case of the IMF, first J apan joined as an Article 14 country that allowed restrictive
foreign exchange transactions for balance of payment purposes, and later became an Article 8 country in 1964. In
GATT, J apan initially joined as an Article 12 country with possible trade restrictions for balance of payment
purposes. The J apanese economy was under BOP constraints up until the mid 1960s.
10
1 1- -4 Coping with Savings Shortage 4 Coping with Savings Shortage
Policy measures to cope with savings shortage
Targeted policy to allocate funds to key sectors
-- Relying on financial intermediaries for capital supply
-- FILP and public financial institutions
-- BOJ monetary expansion through “window guidance”
“over-lending”, “over-borrowing”
Policy measures to cope with savings shortage Policy measures to cope with savings shortage
Targeted policy to allocate funds to key sectors
-- Relying on financial intermediaries for capital supply
-- FILP and public financial institutions
-- BOJ monetary expansion through “window guidance”
“over-lending”, “over-borrowing”
Source? SNA
Investment ratio =(private and
public investment) / GDP
Household savings ratio =(house-
hold savings) / (household
disposable income)
Prior to 1955, the older SNA
level was adjusted using 1955-60
average difference between the
two series
0
10
20
30
40
50
1
9
5
1
1
9
5
3
1
9
5
5
1
9
5
7
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
7
1
9
6
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
Household savings ratio
Investment ratio
% %
Fund Shortage and Increased Role of Banking (indirect finance)
During the reconstruction phase of the postwar J apanese development, the biggest macroeconomic challenge was a
shortage of funds for investment or a shortage of savings. In the early 1950s, the household saving rate was around
10% according to the System of National Account (SNA) data. Thefigure was slightly higher in household surveys
(than in employee households). Like many other developing economies, J apan faced the risk of falling into the
“savings shortage trap” where a shortage of savings leads to a shortage of industrial funds, which in turn leads to a
limited production capacity, to stagnant income, and finally comes back to aggravate the savings shortage.
In order to cope with this shortage, J apanese government adopted targeted policies and directed funds to key
industries for dynamic economic growth, rather than relying on amarket-oriented allocation of the limited funds.
First, the government relied on financial intermediary institutions to supply industrial funds, rather than
relying on capital markets. To this end, three big long-term credit banks were established (along with large
commercial banks) in order to provide long-term credit to these key industrial sectors. (Refer to the slide for
the Main-bank System on page 36.)
Second, the government introduced the fiscal investment and loanprogram (FILP) in order to channel public
funds to key industries through newly established public financial institutions such as the J apan Development
Bank and small business loan corporations. The major sources of funds were postal savings and, at the initial
stage, collateral funds established with earnings from the salesof products supplied by the US government as
commodity aid.
Third, the Bank of J apan (BOJ ) supplied high-powered money to the private sector by providing loans to
private financial institutions through ‘window guidance’. Commercial banks borrowed money from the BOJ
and actively lent to business sectors, resulting in low capital ratios (‘over-lending’). Business sectors
borrowed heavily from financial institutions, again resulting inlow capital ratios (‘over-borrowing’).
Then, the social system was formed/geared for increased savings: long working days, a six-day work week, and poor
social security provision.
11
Low interest rates and credit rationing
Regulation -- Extraordinary Interest Control Law (1948)
Window guidance -- official discount rate kept low
Interbank‘call’ market – higher call rates - incentives for
small/regional banks to provide funds for larger banks
Avoidance of inflation in spite of monetary expansion
1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
100 billion yen
Call rate (right)
BOJ loan (left)
Discount rate (right)
Interest rates
and BOJ loans
Source: Tomita p.110
1 1- -5 Growth without Inflation; Mobilization of Funds 5 Growth without Inflation; Mobilization of Funds
Growth without Inflation
This type of monetary expansion could normally lead to rapid inflation. However in J apan, overall inflationary pressure
did not emerge. This was the case as the long-term credits provided were immediately used for real business investment,
leading to an expansion of production capacity in a very short period.
‘Over-lending’, or a persistently low capital adequacy ratio, ought to increase bankruptcy risks of financial institutions.
However, the government policy protected the banking sector frombankruptcy and from cut-throat competition. Banks
that faced financial difficulty were merged with healthier banksbefore their collapse. This policy scheme was often
labeled as a ‘convoy system’, with the Ministry of Finance acting as commander-in-chief. As such, from the 1950s to
the early 1990s, no major bankruptcies in the banking sector occurred in the J apanese economy.
Artificially Low Interest Rates and Concentration of Funds
Interest rates were controlled at levels lower than potential market rates (open financial markets were underdeveloped).
The ‘Extraordinary’ Interest Rate Control Law, enacted in 1948 to control increasesin interest rates during the post-war
hyper-inflation, survived 40 years and kept deposit and loan rates at low levels. Together with this interest rate
regulation, the official discount rate (the rate of BOJ loans tocommercial banks) was also kept at a lower level.
Artificially low interest rates amidst a shortage of savings naturally bring about excess demand for loans, that in turn
calls for credit rationing. ‘Window guidance’ was adopted to compel commercial banks to provide funds to key
industrial sectors, and to restrict an extension of the loan supply when monetary policy had to be tightened.
The only liberalized financial market was the inter-bank ‘call loan’ market where financial institutions dealt short-term
money with each other in order to cover temporary shortages of funds. The ‘call’ rate was regularly higher than the
official discount rate, and therefore regional banks and other small-size financial institutions had incentives to provide
their surplus deposit to the call market rather than supplying loans to local and small businesses at less favorable terms.
12
Part II: High Economic Growth Period Part II: High Economic Growth Period
(mid 1950s (mid 1950s – – early 1970s) early 1970s)
13
Dual structure -- lower productivity and poorer working conditions
in small businesses, consumption-goods and service sectors
National consensus -- trickle-down strategy
8.8
9.2
4.5 4.4
3.3
4.9
1.5
1.0
1.4
11.1
1
9
5
6
-
6
0
1
9
6
1
-
6
5
1
9
6
6
-
7
0
1
9
7
1
-
7
5
1
9
7
6
-
8
0
1
9
8
1
-
8
5
1
9
8
6
-
9
0
1
9
9
1
-
9
5
1
9
9
6
-
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
-
2
0
0
5
Average real
growth rate
Source: National Accounts
2 2- -1 Entering Virtuous Cycle 1 Entering Virtuous Cycle
Period of rapid growth (1955--1970)
Rapid-Growth Period and the ‘Dual Structure’
The J apanese economy eventually entered an economic growth process with positively reinforcing feedback:
demand expansion—production expansion—increases in income—consumption expansion—further income
expansion—increases in savings—-investment growth and an expansion of production capacity. The rapid
growth period from the late 1950s to1960s was thus created. From 1955 to 1972, the J apanese real GDP
grew by an annual average rate of 9.3%.
This virtuous cycle particularly benefited big businesses in heavy industries such as metal, chemicals, energy
and machinery. Scarce funds were preferentially allocated to industries with a lower capital cost. On the
other hand, although lower prices of capital goods as a result of the massive investment in machinery
industries partly facilitated investments, small businesses and consumer-goods and services sectors suffered
from shortages of investment funds.
This scheme was often criticized as having overly-favored key industries and big businesses. However, this
strategy was generally accepted by most J apanese as a ‘trickle-down approach’ to raise incomes and living
standards in J apan. In forming this consensus, government’s medium-term economic plans, particularly the
National Income Doubling Plan of 1960, contributed significantly.
Although it was generally a big success, this approach also created the problems associated with ‘dual
structure’. A world of difference in productivity, wages and in other working conditions emerged between
the favored industries and those that were not. There was a big gap in competitiveness between heavy
industries and big businesses on one hand, and consumer-goods and service-related sectors on the other. The
cause of poor performance in the latter sectors was twofold: a shortage of investments and a lack of market
competition. Even today, this continues to be a major challenge to the J apanese economy in the process of
major structural reforms.
14
Demand side
– Shortage of production capacity – investment
demand
– New consumer durables – consumer demand
– Increased Quality and undervalued exchange rate –
export expansion
Supply side
– Innovation seeds from overseas
– Growth of working-age population and its migration
– Increase in household savings
– Rise in education attainment to enhance human
capacity
National Income Doubling Plan (1961-70): great success
2 2- -2 2 Demand and supply side factors for rapid growth
Demand- and Supply-Side Factors for this Rapid Growth
Demand-side factors:
-- Due to rapid growth and the emergence of new products, the expansion of production capacity was always
lagging behind that of demand. There was massive demand for fixed investment, and investment called for
further investment.
-- Household consumption started to drive the economy as consumer durables rapidly spread into households.
First wave: monochrome TVs, washing machines, and refrigerators. Second wave: colour TVs, air-
conditioners, and automobiles.
-- Demand for J apanese exports grew thanks to higher international competitiveness due to gains in product
quality, and to the undervalued exchange rate.
Supply-side factors:
-- There were ample applicable seeds of product/business innovation that J apan gained from overseasdue to
the technological gap with industrial economies.
-- The growth rate of the working-age population was high. There was a massive migration of young-
generation workers from rural to urban areas.
-- The household savings ratio rose to finance investment growth.
-- Higher education attainment supported rapid growth in human capital.
In 1960, the Cabinet of Prime Minister HayatoIkeda adopted the National Income Doubling Plan and
projected an annual growth rate of 7.2% between 1960 and 1970, aiming for a doubling of real GDP in this
decade. The J apanese economy had in fact grown at a much faster pace.
15
2 2- -3 Rapid growth as a 3 Rapid growth as a “ “catching catching- -up up” ” process process
Catching-up process Goal of development Consensus formation
Advantage of latecomers
-- introduction of technology and process innovation
-- lower business risks
-- incentive for innovation and quality control through
competition in foreign market
Advantage in Catching-up as a Latecomer
The fact that the J apanese economy was in the process of ‘catching-up’ with industrialized economies was a
big factor that enabled sustained rapid growth. This ‘catching-up’ process came with the following
“latecomers’ advantages”.
First of all, it facilitated technological progress. The import of foreign technology was given high priority in the
allotment of foreign currency (limited foreign reserves). Manufacturing technicians and workers had sufficient
technical skills and knowledge for them to utilize, emulate, and improve imported technologies (‘improved
engineering’). Manufacturing companies also had both the willingness and the ability to absorbsuch technical
progress (Ohkawaand Rosovsky:1973, Chapter 9).
Secondly, foreign business was a good reference for the future development of J apanese business and
consumer demand, so J apanese companies could effectively avoid market risks associated with new business
operations.
Thirdly, for manufacturing companies, sales success in the markets of advanced economies was a powerful
demonstration of their products’ quality and competitiveness in the domestic market. Thus, they made massive
efforts to export their products, which resulted in productivity enhancement, new technology development,
quality control, and strengthening of non-price competitiveness that often offset increases in labor costs.
16
2 2- -4 Industrial Development and Market Opening 4 Industrial Development and Market Opening
Protection of infant industries
through foreign currency quota
“Ceiling of the balance
of payment”
2000
1994
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
A
g
r
i
c
u
l
t
u
r
e
,
e
t
c
.
Manufac.
M
a
t
e
r
i
a
l
M
a
c
h
i
n
e
r
y
M
i
s
c
.
C
o
n
s
t
r
u
c
t
i
o
n
U
t
i
l
i
t
y
/
T
&
T
/
f
i
n
a
n
c
e
D
i
s
t
r
i
b
u
t
i
o
n
/
s
e
r
v
i
c
e
G
o
v
t
.
s
e
r
v
i
c
e
(estimate)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1
9
5
2
1
9
5
3
1
9
5
4
1
9
5
5
1
9
5
6
1
9
5
7
1
9
5
8
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
2
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
6
1
9
6
7
1
9
6
8
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
2
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
6
1
9
7
7
1
9
7
8
1
9
7
9
1
9
8
0
Current account balance (% of GDP)
Protection of infant industries through foreign currency quota
Export of Labor-Intensive Products
Since the end of World War II, J apanese tradable industries werehighly protected from international
competition. Imports, foreign exchange transactions and inward foreign direct investment were all tightly
regulated. Trade barriers took the form of foreign exchange quotas as well as tariffs and other non-tariff
barriers.
The trade structure then was to export labor-intensive manufacturing products in order to earn foreign
currency revenue (foreign exchange) and then to import capital- and technology-intensive manufacturing
products and raw materials.
Balance of Payments Constraint
Until the first half of the 1960s, a major constraint to J apanese economic growth was ‘the ceiling on the
balance of payment’. An expansion of the Japanese economy triggered an import boost and thus created and
widened the trade deficit. The BOJ had to then tighten monetary policy in order to protect the value of the
J apanese yen (the yen was at a fixed exchange rate). Monetary tightening, executed in the forms of a
reduction in the loan supply to private financial institutions and an increase in the official discount rate, first
effectively reduced banking credit extended to the business sector that highly relied upon bank loans, which
put a brake on fixed investment, and thereby decelerated growth, thus leading to an improvement in external
balance. Once the monetary policy was loosened, the J apanese economy rushed into the next expansion
phase with a quick recovery in credit supply and investment.
17
2 2- -5 Market Opening in the 1960s 5 Market Opening in the 1960s
Market opening on a scheduled, step-by-step basis
Foreign trade
1960: Trade Liberal-
ization Program
“Positive list” ?
“Negative list”
Foreign currency quota ?
Automatic approval
Import liberalization ratio
1959 1966
34% 93%
Foreign
exchange
1960
Restoring yen’s
convertibility
1964
Accepting
IMF Code
Article 8
Inward FDI
1967~1970
Basic Program for
Capital Account
Liberalization
1970
Majority foreign
ownership was
allowed in
80% of
industries
Market Opening during the 1960s
During the 1950s, as J apanese exports increased, industrialized countries gradually stepped up the pressure
on the J apanese government to open its market. In the 1960s, theJ apanese government initiated the process
of market opening in a strategic (scheduled, step-by-step) manner.
Trade liberalization was conducted by changing the foreign currency quota for the import of restricted
commodities (FA, fund allocation) to an automatic approval (AA). In 1960 the government adopted a
comprehensive plan to liberalize foreign trade that changed a ground rule from ‘restriction as a rule,
openness as an exception’ to the contrary. The ratio of liberalized import lines rose from 34% in 1959 to
93% in 1966.
With regard to foreign exchange transactions, the yen regained convertibility in 1960. In 1964, J apan
accepted the IMF Code Article 8 that ruled out foreign exchange restrictions for the purpose of balance of
payments stability.
As to capital flows, the law on foreign capital of 1950 stipulated that inward FDI should be allowed only if it
contributed to an improvement in balance of payments. In reality, the majority of inward FDI applications
were not approved as they were perceived to bear risks of harming the J apanese business sector. In 1967, a
basic program for capital liberalization was adopted. This program was implemented by 1970, again in a
step-by-step manner. By 1970, majority foreign ownership was allowed in 80% of J apanese industries.
18
2 2- -6 Changes in J apan 6 Changes in J apan’ ’s Comparative Advantage s Comparative Advantage
Changes in trade structure
and positive adjustments
Export-led growth?
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1
9
5
3
1
9
5
4
1
9
5
5
1
9
5
6
1
9
5
7
1
9
5
8
1
9
5
9
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
2
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
6
1
9
6
7
1
9
6
8
1
9
6
9
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
2
1
9
7
3
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
5
1
9
7
6
1
9
7
7
1
9
7
8
1
9
7
9
1
9
8
0
Business investment
Export
% point
Contribution to GDP growth
Source: SNA
1953-55: older SNA
95
90
80
70
60
1950
Export structure
F
o
o
d
T
e
x
t
i
l
e
M
e
t
a
l
O
t
h
e
r
m
a
t
e
r
i
a
l
M
o
t
o
r
v
e
h
i
c
l
e
O
t
h
e
r
m
a
n
u
f
a
c
.
M
a
c
h
i
n
e
r
y
Changing Comparative Advantage
As wages went up in the J apanese labor market, labor-intensive manufacturing products such as textile
products gradually lost their price competitiveness. On the other hand, price increases in capital-intensive
and technology-intensive products were mostly avoided as wage increases in these sectors were largely
offset by healthy productivity gains. Their prices relative to those of foreign products showed a declining
trend, thanks in part to yen’s fixed exchange rate. Thus, the structure of comparative advantage in J apanese
manufacturing sector had completely shifted. Capital- and technology-intensive products were also products
that faced elastic demand (high income elasticity). As a result, the structure of J apanese exports changed
dramatically.
Given this rapid shift in comparative advantage, industries such as textiles, coal mining, shipbuilding, and
after the first oil crisis, aluminum, exited or slimmed down substantially. Positive adjustments were made in
expanding industries. The chemicals industry, originally concentrated on production of fertilizers, shifted its
focus to basic chemicals, and then to ‘fine’ chemicals. Cement and other related industries moved to
production of synthetic materials such as ‘fine’ ceramics. Textile industries turned themselves into
multinational fashion industries.
Export as an Engine for Growth?
Looking at the developments in GDP components, exports or external demand had not necessarily played a
major role quantitatively in Japan’s economic growth, at least until the first half of the 1960s. On the macro
front, business investment had been the major engine for J apan’s growth. The contribution of export
expansion– ‘trade (export) as an engine for growth’ – was made through its microeconomic effects instead,
by stimulating innovation and productivity growth in J apan’s manufacturing sector.
19
2 2- -7 Balanced Budget and Issuance of 7 Balanced Budget and Issuance of Gov Gov’ ’t t Bond Bond
Balanced budget
1947: Budget Law -- Prohibiting “deficit financing bonds”
1949: Attainment of balanced budget on consolidated basis
Bond issuance
1965 recession
Perception of the end of
investment-led growth
Issuance of deficit
covering bond
1966~
“Construction” bond
0
10
20
30
40
50
1
9
6
2
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
8
1
9
7
1
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
7
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
8
Central gov’t bond issuance
(% of total revenue, general account)
FY
%
Balanced Budget to Bond Financing
The hyper-inflation after the war was partly attributable to the J apanese government’s massive budget deficit
and its direct financing by the BOJ . In order to control inflation and to prepare for a self-reliant economic
reconstruction, the 1947 Budget Law prohibited the issuance of bonds to finance the current deficit—the so-
called ‘deficit financing (covering) bonds’. Initially, there were loopholes in budgeting due to the existence
of special accounts. Since the FY1949 budget, J apan’s national budget was balanced on a consolidated basis
(that is, including special accounts). Until the first half of 1960s, the budget was kept neutral to the
macroeconomy.
The recession in 1965 turned out to be the first post-war economic slump against which monetary loosening
was not effective. A serious question was raised regarding whether the post-war rapid growth process driven
by business investment had ended. Pessimistic views predicted persistent shortages of final demandunless it
was supported by government demand. In 1965, due to a shortage of tax revenue, the government was forced
to issue deficit financing bonds, enacting an extraordinary law to allow it. Since then, in order to fill gaps in
final demand while conforming to the Budget Law, the Japanese government has continued to issue bonds
under the name of ‘construction bonds’, to finance development of social overhead capital. The size of bond
financing (deficit financing by bonds) continued to be small until the mid-1970s.
20
14 economic plans officially adopted
Economic plans in a free market economy
‘Indicative-type’ rather than ‘Command-type’
Sharing of information between the government and
the public (business and household sectors)
-- Medium-run development scenario the government assumes,
including target economic growth rate and other
indicators
-- Medium-run economic policy stance and policy priority,
including allocation of funds for investment in
social overhead capital
-- Economic behavior of household and business sectors
that the government deems desirable
Economic plans in a free market economy
‘Indicative-type’ rather than ‘Command-type’
Sharing of information between the government and
the public (business and household sectors)
-- Medium-run development scenario the government assumes,
including target economic growth rate and other
indicators
-- Medium-run economic policy stance and policy priority,
including allocation of funds for investment in
social overhead capital
-- Economic behavior of household and business sectors
that the government deems desirable
2 2- -8 Role of Economic Planning 8 Role of Economic Planning
Economic Plans
To what extent did the government’s economic plans contribute to the success in J apan’s post-war
development?
The J apanese government first adopted the ‘Economic Self-Reliance Five-Year Plan’ in 1955. Then economic
plans of five- to ten-year duration were created in sequence. The ‘Doubling National Income Plan’ adopted in
1960 with the target year of 1970 was often regarded as the most successful plan. The plan that aimed at
doubling national income in real terms in ten years was executedsuccessfully by building confidence within
J apanese business and household sectors, thereby attaining such rapid economic growth.
Up to the present day, there have been 14 officially adopted economic plans. Although their planning periods
were five to ten years, all of them were replaced by revised plans before the end of the original plan period.
This was partly because of deviations of actual economic conditions from the assumed economic framework
during the plan period, and partly because new administrations preferred to adopt their own new plans when
they took office. Even before the enactment of the first official plan, there were discussions among government
sections, businesses, consumers and academia that contributed tothe national consensus building on
development strategies.
Nature of Economic Plans in a Market Economy
Economic plans in the market economy were geared to communicate government’s views on the future of
J apanese economy to the public, and to form a national consensus. J apanese economic plans usually consisted
of the following ingredients: i) medium-term development scenario that the government assumes, includingan
economic framework such as targeted rates of economic growth andinflation; ii) medium-run economic policy
goals and policy priority, including allocation of investments in social overhead capital in the plan period; and
iii) private sector’s actions that the government considered desirable. As such, these plans were of an
‘indicative-type’ rather than those of ‘command-type’ widely seen in central planning economies. Acceptance
of those suggested actions was optional rather than compulsory.
21
Examples of Adopted Economic Plans Examples of Adopted Economic Plans
Name
1.Economic Self-
Reliance Plan
3.Doubling National
Income Plan
5.Economic and Social
Development Plan
7.Economic and Social
Basic Plan
8.Economic Plan for
2
nd
Half of the 1970s
Plan
period
1956
~1960
1961
~1970
1967
~1971
1973
~1977
1976
~1980
Major purposes
Economic self-reliance
Full employment
High growth
Higher living standard
Balanced and fulfilled
economy/society
People’s welfare
International relations
Stable development
Fulfilled people’s living
Growth target
/actual growth
4.9%
8.8%
7.8%
10.0%
8.2%
9.8%
9.4%
3.5%
6%+
4.5%
Economic Plans that Played a Significant Role
During the rapid growth period, economic plans generally contributed to a consensus formation. The typical
case was the Doubling National Income Plan. Subsequent plans such as the ‘Economic and Social
Development Plan’ (1967—1971) and the ‘New Economic and Social Development Plan’ (1970—1975)
addressed problems that emerged as a result of this rapid growth, such as pollution, income inequality, and
rapid urbanization and concentration. These plans shed light on the importance of balanced economic
development.
Although the plan was very short-lived due to the dramatic changes caused by the first oil crisis, the
‘Economic and Social Basic Plan’ (1973—1977) focused on people’s well-being and international aspects of
development. With the energy crisis, pessimistic views on J apan’s growth potential prevailed. The
‘Economic Plan for the Second Half of the 1970s’ (1976—1980), by (1) advocating potential annual growth
rates of 5 to 6%, (2) emphasizing the needs of structural reforms and (3) adopting energy-saving initiatives
in order to regain growth potential, contributed to J apan’s overcoming of the oil crisis.
Compared to these plans, subsequent plans were less effective in setting/forming national consensus. In a
post catch-up era, government plans should be limited to government’s own reform agenda such as
regulatory and budgetary reforms.
22
Part III: Part III:
Socio Socio- -Economic Outcome Economic Outcome
of Rapid Growth of Rapid Growth
( ( – – 1970s 1970s – – ) )
23
Labor market – labor surplus to labor shortage
– Wage increase – productivity-differential inflation
Infrastructure
– Tokaido bullet train; Meishin super highway
– Physical transportation modes – motorization
Negative side
– Underdevelopment of social overhead capital
(infrastructure) for better living
– Overpopulation in urban areas and depopulation
in rural areas
– Environmental degradation
Public pension system extended to self-employed
3 3- -1 Socio 1 Socio- -Economic Transformation Economic Transformation
Employment share 1955 1970
Primary industry 41.3% 19.7%
Secondary industry 24.9% 35.3%
Tertiary industry 33.8% 45.0%
Socio-Economic Transformation
During the rapid growth period, J apanese society underwent various changes. From 1955 to 1970, the share of
primary industry in total nominal GDP decreased from 19.2% to 5.9%, while that of secondary industry
increased from 33.8% to 43.1%. In terms of employment share, primary industry declined from 41.3% to 19.7%,
secondary industry from 24.9% to 35.3%, and the tertiary sector from 33.8% to 45.0%. Changing conditions in
the labor market, from excess supply to labor shortage at around 1960, resulted in wage increases even in the
less productive sectors and smaller companies. A shrinking wage gap in spite of the persistent gap in labour
productivity caused the so-called ‘productivity-growth-differential’ inflation. The consumer price index
constantly increased from the beginning of the 1960s, while wholesale prices were relatively stable.
Regarding people’s livelihood, a spread of consumer durables caused substantial changes in consumers’ lives
(‘consumption revolution’). A sense of ‘middle class’ was shared by a large part of J apanese society.
Economic infrastructure was actively developed as seen in the opening of the Tokaidobullet train between
Tokyo and Osaka in 1964, and a super highway between Komaki (near Nagoya) and Nishinomiya(near Kobe)
in 1965. Motorization proceeded with increases in auto sales andhighway construction.
On the downside of the rapid growth, some significant distortions developed. Most notably were (1) a delay in
development of living-related infrastructure, (2) urban overpopulation and rural depopulation as a result of labor
movement from rural to urban areas, and (3) environmental degradation. With the advent of four major
pollution-related diseases, the government took anti-pollution measures such as the enactment of the Basic Law
for Anti-pollution Measures in 1967 and the establishment of the Environmental Agency in 1971.
As for social insurance, the National Pension System started. The coverage of public pension and health
insurance was widened to all people including self-employed and unemployed by the late 1960s.
24
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1
9
5
5
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
4
1,000-
500-999
300-499
200-299
100-199
50-99
30-49
20-29
40
50
60
70
80
90
1
9
4
7
1
9
5
0
1
9
5
5
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
5
Longevity
Female
Male
3 3- -2 Positive Outcomes of the Rapid Growth 2 Positive Outcomes of the Rapid Growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1
9
5
5
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
6
Male
Female
Total
Wage gap by size of company
Manufacturing
Percentage of students who
enter colleges/universities
The rapid growth raised the income level and people’s living standards. For example:
Lifespan lengthened
Thanks to increases in income, education on nutrition, vaccination and other medical care improvements, people’s
health condition dramatically improved. Average life span of theJ apanese was lengthened from 60 years for males
and 63 years for females to 71 and 77, respectively, between 1950 and 1975. It continued to lengthen after the end
of the rapid growth, and now stands at 78 for males and 85 for females.
Education attainment improved
Higher education had become far more accessible to ordinary people. The percentage of young people who enter
universities/colleges (including junior colleges) jumped up from10% (male: 15%, female 5%) in 1960 to 38%
(male: 43%, female 32%) in 1975. University enrollment ratio stagnated from 1975 to 1990, but it started to rise
again in the 1990s, this time mainly due to a significant increase in female students’ enrollment. Now the gender
gap in university enrollment has almost disappeared.
Income gap narrowed
After WWII ended, J apan’s economic development strategy initially focused on recovery of key industries and of
large size enterprises.
Small businesses and non-manufacturing sectors were left behind in terms of productivity, wages and working
conditions. The productivity gap continued to widen during the rapid growth period. Nevertheless, overall labor
shortages as a result of the rapid growth eventually pushed up the wage levels even at small and non-manufacturing
companies. The wage gap by company size narrowed sharply from 1955 to 1965, but that trend reversed afterwards.
25
Movement from
rural to urban
Movement from
urban to rural
Movement inside urban
from one prefecture
to another
Movement inside rural
from one prefecture
to another
Net inflow of population
to Metropolitan Tokyo
thousand
3 3- -3 Negative Outcomes of the Rapid Growth 3 Negative Outcomes of the Rapid Growth
(1) Overpopulation and Depopulation (1) Overpopulation and Depopulation
Dark Side of the Rapid Growth
The rapid economic growth also brought about significant problems in society, such as (1) over-population
in metropolitan areas and depopulation in rural areas; (2) weakening of social cohesion such as regional
community and family relationships; and (3) environmental disruption such as air and water pollution, noise,
increase in waste, and land subsidence. Here (1) and (3) will bediscussed.
Over-Population and Depopulation
The rapid growth period was also a rapid population movement period. The substantial shift of the industry
structure from agriculture to manufacturing and services drove farmers to urban areas to seek job
opportunities and urban life. Agricultural employment halved from 13.3 million (33% of total employment)
in 1960 to 6.7 million (2.6%) in 1975. It has continued to decline and as of 2005 only 2.9 million (4.7%) are
engaged in agriculture, a majority of whom engage in other jobs and farm only “part-time”. In particular, to
fulfill the labor demand expansion in manufacturing, sons and daughters of farmers were systematically sent
to big cities in large numbers.
Over-population in the metropolitan areas unavoidably caused the congestion phenomena, such as traffic
jams, poor housing conditions, a shortageof urban infrastructure, terrible commutes, and environmental
pollution. Depopulation in the rural areas resulted in more reliance on food imports, further budget
dependence of the local government on the central government, and a higher risk of natural disaster due to
devastated fields and forests.
The rural-to-urban migration calmed after the economic growth rate slowed, but the inflow of population
into the Tokyo metropolitan area has been consistent.
26
3 3- -3 Negative Outcome of the Rapid Growth 3 Negative Outcome of the Rapid Growth
(2) (2) Environmental degradation Environmental degradation
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1
9
6
5
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
SO
2
(ppm)
NO
2
(ppm)
Atmospheric polution
SO
2
(ppm)
Source: Ministry of Environment
Environmental Degradation
The development strategy that put emphasis on industrial growth caused serious environmental degradation
in many parts of J apan.
Atmospheric pollution
Metropolitan and industrial areas faced serious problems associated with air pollution, beginning in the
1950s. Smoke covered the cities and the number of asthmatic patients increased in major industrial cities.
The government enacted a law to control air pollution in 1962 that mainly focused on smoke emission from
coal fuel. However, it did not address the emerging industrial use of petroleum fuel that caused sulfa-oxide
emission or the increasing emissions from automobiles. In 1968 this law was revised as the Air Pollution
Prevention Law. It regulated SOx emission from factory chimneys. Factories were forced to build very high
chimneys of 100 to 150 meters. Although this law was effective in reducing SOx exposure around the
factory chimneys, it also created air pollution in a wider area. In 1970, the law was substantially amended in
order to allow prefectural governments to (1) set stricter standards than those set by the central government,
(2) introduce direct punishment against violators, and (3) widenthe coverage of regulation from specific
regions to nationwide.
Now the level of SOx emission has decreased to 1/10 of the level in 1965. However, NOx emission that
mainly comes from automobiles is still at a high level.
27
20
40
60
80
100
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
4
Lakes
Rivers
Water pollution
% of attaining environmental standard
Source: Ministry of Environment
Water pollution
Water pollution was also a serious environmental problem. The water quality generally deteriorated in lakes,
rivers, seas, and underground water. Emissions of harmful substances from factories caused very serious
human diseases that often were fatal. The most prominent examplewas the Minamata disease, caused by
Methylmercury contained in drained water from chemical factoriesthat killed and disabled many people in
Kumamoto in the 1950s and Niigata in the 1960s. Accumulated slime created by water drained from
pulp/paper factories and contaminated rivers and coastal waters.
Not only industrial but also household emissions aggravated the situation of water pollution.
Although two laws were enacted in 1958 in order to protect water quality from factory emissions, they were
largely ineffective. In 1970, a far more potent Water Pollution Prevention Law that introduced a strict
liability principle to water pollution was enacted. Thanks to this law and technological developments, the
quality of water has been improving since then.
28
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
5
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Atmospheric pollution
related disease (left)
Minamata
disease
(right)
Number of patients
Source: Ministry of Environment
Diseases Caused by Environmental Degradation
Environmental pollution caused serious diseases in various regions in J apan. Even confined to officially
recognized cases, the estimated number of patients of diseases related to air pollution such as asthma in
Yokkaichi City, Mie, surpassed 100 thousand in 1988.
A symbol of J apan’s pollution disease, Minamatadisease. The number of officially recognized Minamata
patients reached 1,924 in 1984. There was a far larger number of patients requesting official recognition. In
March 1978, the number of recognized patients was 1,348, while 5,385 patients were filing for recognition.
29
3 3- -4 Gaps between Manufacturing 4 Gaps between Manufacturing
and Non and Non- -Manufacturing Sectors Manufacturing Sectors
Manufacturing sector -- productivity growth
Non-manufacturing sector -- stagnant productivity
-- preferential financial and foreign exchange allocation
-- difference in market competitiveness
Manufacturing Non-manufacturing
Catch-up process
J apanese-style market system
International competition Regulation and protection
Manufacturing vs. Non-Manufacturing Sectors
During the catch-up period, Japan’s tradable sector built a strong comparative advantage in manufacturing, taking
advantage of (1) the J apan-specific employment practices, (2) joint development of parts/components through a
supplier network called “keiretsu,” (2) the long-term management strategy supported by the mainbank system, (4)
the corporate governance structure, and (5) the effective protection from foreign capital through cross share-holdings.
This successful system of development unavoidably restricted market competition by effectively preventing entries
and even exits. In the tradable sector, however, tough international competition effectively offset the disadvantages
associated with this weaker domestic competition. As tariff barriers and quantitative restrictions effectively
protected the domestic market until the late 1950s, actual or potential pressures of international competition mainly
came from export markets. Even in the domestic economy, the markets of the tradable sectors were very competitive
during the industrialization period (Aoki and Okuno: 1996, p.13). Although the elements of competition were not
provided through a typical neoclassical market mechanism consisting of many mutually unidentified participants,
competition among ‘visible’ participants whose names and faces are known to each other was often tougher than that
with many ‘invisible’ participants.
In contrast to the success in the tradable sector, the non-tradable non-manufacturing sectors of the J apanese
economy lagged behind as they were effectively isolated from global competition. Moreover, the government’s
market interventions, excessive regulations, fiscal and financial subsidies, and protection of domestic markets from
imported services and foreign direct investments, hindered soundcompetition in these sectors. Thus, productivity
growth was not seen in non-tradable non-manufacturing sectors.
30
Relatively low productivity growth in the
non-tradable sector and resultant mild inflation
-5
0
5
10
15
1
9
5
1
-
5
5
1
9
5
6
-
6
0
1
9
6
1
-
6
5
1
9
6
6
-
7
0
1
9
7
1
-
7
5
1
9
7
6
-
8
0
1
9
8
1
-
8
5
1
9
8
6
-
9
0
1
9
9
1
-
9
5
1
9
9
6
-
9
9
CPI
WPI
Annual average inflation rates
%
BOJ ’saccommodative monetary policies effectively stimulated
corporate profits, investment, employment, and consumption
Stable WPI with CPI Inflation during High Growth Period
Certain non-tradable sectors grew, nonetheless, thanks to diversified demandstructure. Relatively
vibrant non-tradable sectors were distributions (retail/wholesale trade), leisure services, business
services, and housing and urban development.
Productivity growth in non-tradable sectors was generally slow, particularly relative to that in the
tradable sector. As a result, mild inflation in consumer prices emerged. As labor union movements
became coordinated across sectors, wages in less productive non-tradable sectors tended to increase
with increases in wages in tradable manufacturing sectors. It imposed a higher unit labor cost in
non-tradable sectors and these increased costs were passed to their product prices as those markets
were heavily protected. Thus, while manufacturing producers’ prices did not show any rising trend
(only cyclical fluctuations), consumer prices consistently rose at a rate of about five percent per
year.
Mechanism of Economy-wide Growth
The BOJ provided ample money in order to support rapid growth inthe J apanese economy starting
in the 1950s. Beginning in 1965, the government began to issue bonds every year, sold to the
syndicates of private financial institutions. Under tight financial market regulation, the bond interest
rates were set substantially lower than long-term market rates. Therefore bonds were not attractive
instruments for the financial sector. The BOJ ended up purchasing them from the financial sector
within one year of issuance. Thus a very accommodative monetarypolicy was created.
This accommodative monetary policy and resultant mild inflation assured profits for manufacturing
companies and thus attracted new investment while enabling job creation in non-manufacturing
sectors that supported the expansion in manufacturing sectors. In this way, strong economy-wide
macroeconomic growth was preserved.
31
1955-70 1970-80 1980-95
Manufacturing 6.0 2.1 2.3
Light manufacturing 2.7 1.7 0.2
Materials 9.2 -1.9 0.6
Machinery 11.9 7.6 5.5
Non-manufacturing 4.2 0.3 0.3
Construction 2.7 -2.9 0.3
Finance/utility/T&T 6.4 1.8 0.7
Distribution & service 3.3 -0.1 0.2
Annual growth of total factor productivity
Sector ? Period 1955-70 1970-80 1980-95
?annual rate ??
Manufactur
Production growth 14.2 4.4 3.5
TFP growth 6. 0 2. 1 2. 3
Contribution of capital 6.0 2.8 1.6
Contribution of labor 2.2 -0.5 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing
Production growth 10.9 5.0 3.6
TFP growth 4. 2 0. 3 0. 3
Contribution of capital 4.6 3.7 2.6
Contribution of labor 2.1 1.0 0.7
Light manufacturing
Production growth 8.5 3.8 0.6
TFP growth 2. 7 1. 7 0. 2
Contribution of capital 4.6 2.8 1.3
Contribution of labor 1.2 -0.8 -0.9
Materials
Production growth 19.6 2.8 2.7
TFP growth 9. 2 -1. 9 0. 6
Contribution of capital 7.2 4.7 1.8
Contribution of labor 3.2 -0.1 0.3
Machinery
Production growth 21.7 9.6 6.6
TFP growth 11. 9 7. 6 5. 5
Contribution of capital 6.2 2.6 1.9
Contribution of labor 3.6 -0.7 -0.8
Construction
Production growth 11.7 2.9 2.5
TFP growth 2. 7 -2. 9 0. 3
Contribution of capital 5.9 4.3 2.1
Contribution of labor 3.2 1.4 0.1
Finance/Utility/transport/Telecom
Production growth 12.4 4.9 3.9
TFP growth 6. 4 1. 8 0. 7
Contribution of capital 3.3 2.2 2.3
Contribution of labor 2.7 0.9 0.9
Distribution/Service
Production growth 9.9 6.1 3.8
TFP growth 3. 3 -0. 1 0. 2
Contribution of capital 5.0 5.2 2.8
Contribution of labor 1.6 0.9 0.8
32
Part IV: Part IV:
Japanese Japanese- -Style Market System Style Market System
For a For a
Miracle Recovery Miracle Recovery
33
4 4- -1 Elements of Japanese 1 Elements of Japanese- -Style Market System Style Market System
Employment system
Main-bank system
Corporate management
Cross share-holding
Parts supplier Keiretsu
Industrial policy/regulation
Employment system
Main-bank system
Corporate management
Cross share-holding
Parts supplier Keiretsu
Industrial policy/regulation
Long Long- -term relations term relations
Organizational trade Organizational trade
Stability Stability- -oriented oriented
‘The 1940 Regime’
originated just
before WWII
Adjusted by themselves
after the war
‘ ‘The 1940 Regime The 1940 Regime’ ’
originated just originated just
before WWII before WWII
Adjusted by themselves Adjusted by themselves
after the war after the war
Interventionist Interventionist
government government
Elements of Japanese-Style Market System
In the development of J apanese industries, certain institutional schemes and business practices played an
important role. Typical elements of the J apanese-style economic system and business practices included long-
term employment and related labor market practices, such as in-house training, the dominant role played by the
banking sector in corporate finance (via direct financing), corporate governance controlled by managers
supported by a main-bank system, cross share-holdings among companies, and a close relationship between
government and business with regulations and other kinds of market intervention such as ‘guidance’.
Origins for the System
These elements of J apanese-style market system are often believed to be deep-rooted in J apan’s traditional culture.
Others think that this framework was designed after WWII for a quick recovery from the devastation of the war.
In fact, many of the elements of the J apanese economic system originated from just before WWII, when there
were national mobilization policies in preparation for the war. The systemsurvived the war and was built into the
J apanese economy with substantial adjustmentsafter the war.
System with Long-Term Relationships
Whether the ‘J apanese-style’ market economy was a rational system or not continues to be debated. It was
characterized by its long-term nature. That is, it included stable long-term engagements of economic agents, often
implicit both in intra- and inter-company relations. Some elements of the system were exclusively J apanese, while
other aspects were commonly shared with other market economies.
Although the long-term relationships embedded in the J apanese-style market system contributed positively to her
economic development, it was exclusionary (anti-competitive) in its nature. New and potential entrants to markets,
particularly foreign businesses (and foreign governments), continue to criticize this exclusivity.
In Need of Change after the ‘Catch-Up’ Process
The J apanese system apparently worked effectively during its ‘catch-up’ phases of development. However, after
having ‘caught up’, it is now believed that new progress must come from autonomousrisk-taking behavior by
businesses and individuals. In this regard, the J apanese-style system of development based on consensus and
cooperation that once functioned so successfully has become an obstacle. The system was (and still is) in need of
change.
34
Development of J apanese-style Market System?The 1940 Regime
Development of J apanese-style Market System?The 1940 Regime The 1940 Regime
The 1940 Regime [Yukio Noguchi (2002)]
?Main-bank system
– 1941: syndicate loan group w/ the leadership of IBJ
– 1942: examination departments in commercial banks
?Corporate governance– 1939: dividend regulation
?Employment practice– 1937: intra-firm labor unions;
1939: wage increase regulation (annual wage hike)
?Parts supplier keiretsu – established during war-time
?Industrial policy– 1941: regulation of industries
?Taxationrelying on income tax – 1940: withholding tax
The 1940 Regime The 1940 Regime [Yukio Noguchi (2002)]
?Main-bank system
– 1941: syndicate loan group w/ the leadership of IBJ
– 1942: examination departments in commercial banks
?Corporate governance– 1939: dividend regulation
?Employment practice– 1937: intra-firm labor unions;
1939: wage increase regulation (annual wage hike)
?Parts supplier keiretsu – established during war-time
?Industrial policy– 1941: regulation of industries
?Taxationrelying on income tax – 1940: withholding tax
35
1987 1995 1999
Shares issued by business companies
Ratio of shares held by stable holders 29.7% 28.7% 27.9%
of which held by financial institutions 22.0% 20.1% 12.9%
Shares issued by banks
Ratio of shares held by stable holders 55.7% 53.3% 45.6%
of which held by business companies 34.4% 32.9% 28.5%
Source: NLI Research Institute (adjusted series for changes in disclosure rules)
Corporate governance built on cross share cross share- -holdings holdings
Substitute for
Zaibatsu
Prevention of
M&As
Substitute for
Zaibatsu
Prevention of
M&As
-- Autonomy of corporate managers
-- Long-term management perspective
-- Low capital cost of equity finance
-- Autonomy of corporate managers
-- Long-term management perspective
-- Low capital cost of equity finance
Cross Share-Holdings
A separation of ownership and management of corporate entities was originally established in the United
States. J apan, too, had separation of management from ownership, but in a J apanese style. A large portion of
corporate equities was (and still is) held by other corporate firms including financial institutions, often
known as ‘stable shareholders’. This took the form of ‘cross share-holding’ among firms. Those (cross)
shareholders were believed to be stable owners as they do not usually sell off the shares, try to take over the
firms, or intervene in the management.
Cross holdings of corporate shares originated after WWII, partly as a substitute for pre-war Zaibatsu
conglomerates that were forcefully dissolved, and partly as a preventive measure against M&As by foreign
multinationals.
Thanks to this common practice, J apanese businesses had been relatively free from the threats of adversarial
takeovers and from interventions by shareholders. In addition, as the stable corporate shareholders did not
usually request high dividend payouts, the capital cost of equity finance had been extremely low. As such,
corporate profits were mostly re-invested in new equipment, and this in turn raised the value of the firms and
created massive capital gains for these shareholders.
This tendency toward low dividends was formed during WWII, when high dividends to capital investment
were deemed inappropriate (Noguchi,1995). In 1939, dividend regulation was introduced. When inward
foreign direct investment was liberalized in the 1960s, this system was effectively utilized in order to protect
J apanese firms from takeover bids by foreign multinationals.
Thanks to this practice of stable shareholdings, corporate managers had the luxury of pursuing their long-
term goals. As the mandate of management was not dominated by short-term profits, J apanese firms were
able to invest in equipment, research and development, and humanresource development.
Downside
The downside was the possible moral hazard in management as managers were not subject to monitoring by
participants in capital markets.
36
Functions of the ‘main-bank system’
– Saving of costs associated with
asymmetry of information
•Screening and monitoring
•Signaling to other financial institutions
•Corporate governance
– Insurance to corporate management
risks
– Information exchange
Corporate finance relying on banking sector
Main-Bank System
The J apanese corporate sector relied heavily on loans extended by financial institutions. Even today, when
corporate financing through the capital market (i.e., direct financing) is growing, a substantial portion of
business debt stock is still in the form of bank loans (i.e., indirect finance). (According to the Bank of
J apan’s flow of funds account, in 1997, non-financial corporations’ aggregate outstanding loans amounted to
525 trillion yen, in which 407 trillion yen (77.5%) consisted of private bank loans as compared to corporate
shares of 291 trillion yen and other securities of 83 trillion yen.)
Most firms have their main banks. A main bank for a firm is defined as the bank that has the largest share in
total bank loans extended to that firm. Moreover, main banks often arrange bond and equity finance for the
firms, and regularly monitor their corporate management and business plans/projects.
Functions of Main Banks
From a microeconomic point of view, the regular collection of borrowers’ information by main banks was
good therapy for the problem of information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers (i.e., the
‘monitoring’ functionof main banks). This saved the cost of information collection and the risks associated
with lending for non-main banks. In case management performance of a borrower firm temporarily
worsened and the risk of bankruptcy arose, its main bank was expected to step in and rescue the firm with
contingent loans and/or a loan rescheduling. A main bank dispatched top managers and extended advice for
its rehabilitation (the ‘insurance’ function). When a decision was made by a main bank to finance a firm’s
project(s), other banks were pleased to provide additional loansas the main bank guaranteed the profitability
of the project(s). In case of difficulties, the main bank was expected to assume the burden of a corporate
bailout (the ‘signaling’ function). The main-bank system had played a role of corporate governance in the
J apanese post-war system of development. In post-war Japan, where shareholders and capital markets did
not assume the monitoring role due to the existence of ‘stable shareholders’ created by cross share-holdings,
main bankstook that role.
37
Before the war:
Equity finance
dominant
Before the war:
Equity finance
dominant
During the war:
Banking was
promoted
During the war:
Banking was
promoted
After the war:
Bank finance
Main-bank system
After the war:
Bank finance
Main-bank system
t
i
g
h
t
r
e
g
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
“
C
o
n
v
o
y
”
s
y
s
t
e
m
t
i
g
h
t
r
e
g
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
“
C
o
n
v
o
y
”
s
y
s
t
e
m
1964
1960
1955
1950
1940
1935
E
q
u
i
t
y
B
o
n
d
Bank loan Own fund
Financing Sources of
industrial investment
Equity Financing to Bank Financing under the ‘Convoy System’
As a matter of fact, before World War II, corporate firms reliedmore on capital markets for their financing
of investment. Commercial banks then often lacked the capacity to evaluate borrowers’ repayment
capabilities and associated risks. As the war became imminent, the government tried to provide a larger
portion of available funds to military-related industries by seeking more direct control over fund flows. The
authorities denounced stock markets for their speculative and disorderly nature, and encouraged markets of
financial intermediation by banks. The authorities believed that financial intermediation by banks was much
more controllable. Therefore, the seed of the main-bank system was formed in WWII, when the J apanese
government took steps to make banks the key financiers of the economy. In 1942, examination departments
were introduced into commercial banks by government regulation and began their regular monitoring of
borrowers. This scheme was thought to be the origin of the main-bank system established after the war
(Noguchi, 1995). The main-bank system facilitated J apan’s economic growth by allocating funds to growing
industries. Tight regulation of the financial sector by the Ministry of Finance, or the so-called ‘convoy
system’, kept this sector ‘orderly’ and preserved a stable main-bank scheme. The main-bank scheme helped
businesses to develop long-term plans by regularly providing loans and serving as a lender-of-last-resort in
case of financial difficulties. Thus, the main-bank scheme played an important role in J apan’s corporate
governance as it kept corporate management prudent and long-term oriented.
Downside
The downside was that this scheme unavoidably weakened competition among financial institutions in terms
of their fighting for corporate customers/borrowers. Main banks also often influenced borrowers’ finance
decisions and hindered the sound development of capital markets in J apan.
38
Labor market practices based on long-term employment
Japanese-style employment practices
– Long-term or ‘life-time’ employment
– Wage increases and promotions based on
seniority
– On-the-job training (OJT)
– Intra-company labor unions
Rationality of long-term employment
– Accumulation of company-specific skills and
technology
– Smooth transfer of skills from one employee to
another
– Smooth introduction of new technology
– Saving of workers’ transition costs of changing jobs
– Less need to monitor workers
Japanese-Style Employment Practices
The J apanese labor market had been characterized by its so-called ‘J apanese-style employment practices.’
These practices consist of long-term employment (or ‘lifetime’ employment), a seniority-based wage system,
promotions in internal labor markets, intra-firm labor unions, and long-run on-the-job training (OJ T). Intra-
firm labor markets were formed with equal opportunity given to all newly-recruited workers, with a slow
promotion process (in selecting winners), and with active ‘visible’ competition among the participants. This
kept young workers motivated.
Reflecting these employment practices, labor adjustments were performed mainly through
lengthening/shortening working hours, wage adjustments, and intra-firm job transfer, rather than through
layoffs. This prevented the rate of unemployment from rising even during recessions. Labor unions were
organized as intra-firm organizations. The union membership was usually extended toboth white- and blue-
collar workers.
Development of These Practices
Before WWII, J apan’s labor market was more like that written in an economics textbook. Although some big
businesses had introduced long-term employment practices for their core white-collar workforce, manual
workers (blue-collars) were most likely hired in spot markets. In 1937, in order to secure labor-employer
cooperation in serving the nation, intra-firm unions encompassing both white-collar and manual workers
were organized. These practices survived throughout the post-war development period as they had systemic
advantages, such as a high level of worker morale, cooperative behavior among workers, firms’ positive
attitudes toward long-term human resource investment and OJ T, and employees’ positive attitudes toward
technological innovation.
Advantages
From microeconomic viewpoints, these practices were effective means to (1) overcome difficulties
associated with asymmetry of information regarding employees’ abilities and work ethics, (2) promote
workers’ faith toward their companies through ‘reputation’ and ‘hostage’ mechanisms, (3) settle conflicts of
interest in intra-firm negotiations, and (4) facilitate transfer of skills among workers.
39
Part V: Part V:
The Evolution of the The Evolution of the
Japanese Development Model Japanese Development Model
*** ***
End of Catching End of Catching- -Up Process Up Process
Bubble Economy Bubble Economy
(1970s (1970s – – 1980s) 1980s)
** **
Lost Decade and Beyond Lost Decade and Beyond
(1990s (1990s - - ) )
40
5 5- -1 Failure to Adjust to Post 1 Failure to Adjust to Post- -Catch Catch- -Up Era Up Era
The end of the “catch-up” process
Survival of the J apanese-style economic system and practices
Strengthened by the success in overcoming the oil crises
Implicit goals shared by
all segments during
the “catch-up” period
To attain success
-- consensus formation
-- coordinated actions
J apanese-Style
Market System
-- long-term relations
-- information sharing
Post-catch-up period
Common goal disappeared
Autonomous action
Top management forced to
steer the ship
?
End of ‘Catch-Up’ Process
The catch-up process seemed to have reached its successful conclusion by the end of the 1960s, at least as indicated
by the level of per capita GDP (PPP). However, the economic system that brought about the successful ‘catching-up’
did not itself evolve, or adjust to the new needs in the post catch-up era. The traditional process of consensus
formation played a significant role again at the time when J apanfaced the first oil crisis of 1973-74. In order to cope
with the quadruple price increase of imported oil and the resultant stagflation, economic agents implicitly agreed, as
directed by the government, to accept tough industrial and employment adjustments and not to rely on
accommodative macroeconomic policies for recovery. Eventually, the J apanese economy overcame high energy
prices by energy-efficient manufacturing processes and products, and this, in turn, strengthened the international
competitiveness of J apanese products. The J apanese economy weathered the second oil crisis of 1979, again without
significant inflation or commodity shortages. In retrospect, however, this resulted in a survival of the modality of
consensus formation, collective actions, and government leadership that was no longer suitable in the post catch-up
era.
After the catch-up process was over, exogenously given goals for business and technology development no longer
existed. Companies had to create their own goals and management strategies suited for their new targets. The
elaboration of explicit goals and strategies by top management had become indispensable.
41
Manufacturing: adjustments to changing environment Manufacturing: adjustments to changing environment
-- persistent appreciation of yen
-- industrialization of Asian economies
Parts-supplier
“keiretsu”
-- survived, taking
advantage of
information sharing
-- strengthened
bargaining power
of suppliers
(after bubble burst)
-- transforming into
a more market-oriented
network
Parts-supplier
“keiretsu”
-- survived, taking
advantage of
information sharing
-- strengthened
bargaining power
of suppliers
(after bubble burst)
-- transforming into
a more market-oriented
network
Long-term
employment
-- survived, taking
advantage of OJ T
(after bubble burst)
-- increased share
of part-time or
temp workers
Long-term
employment
-- survived, taking
advantage of OJ T
(after bubble burst)
-- increased share
of part-time or
temp workers
Main-bank system
-- lowering of big
Businesses’ reliance
on bank loans
(after bubble burst)
-- consolidation
in the banking
sector itself
Main-bank system
-- lowering of big
Businesses’ reliance
on bank loans
(after bubble burst)
-- consolidation
in the banking
sector itself
Manufacturing (Tradable) Sectors in Transformation
The manufacturing sector, confronted with stiff global competition in the face of the rise in Asian nations and the yen’s
appreciation since the 1970s, constantly sought to maximize the rate productivity increase. This sector thus chose to
preserve the effective parts of the existing system and to transform other elements. In other words, they were keeping what
worked, and changing what didn’t.
Labor Market
Many of the long-term employment practices survived because they are effective human resource management practices.
The manufacturing sector tended to rely heavily on company-specific technology, and therefore more long-term, on-the-job
skill development continued to be an effective option. After theburst of the bubble, however, the share of part-time and/or
temp workers has been increasing with deregulations in J apan’s labor market.
‘Keiretsu’
The parts supplier ‘keiretsu’ network system substantially changed due largely to the strengthened ability of parts suppliers
to develop new products. With advantageous information sharing, the ‘keiretsu’ scheme survived. However, the nature of
subcontractors’ dependency on their ‘parent’ companies had largely changed. In many industries, final-assembly producers
were no longer capable of designing new products without cooperation from parts suppliers. Backed by technological
advantages, many suppliers could abandon their former customers if the terms of the transaction seemed disadvantageous
to them and if they could find other partners. Parts suppliers’ competitiveness was fostered by stiff competition with other
suppliers in the same keiretsu network and by potential competitive pressure exerted by suppliers outside the keiretsu. This
has been a typical form of ‘visible’ competition in the J apanese-style market system. Visible face-to-face competition was
often tougher than textbook-style competition among anonymous players. This induced massive efforts to raise
productivity, and to shorten delivery time. With the advent of more independent suppliers, parent companies started to
source their parts from firms outside keiretsu if it was more cost efficient. Thus the parts supplier keiretsu transformed
itself into a more open, market-oriented system.
Main-Bank System
By the 1970s, major manufacturing companies were no longer dependent on specific financial institutions for their
investment funds. In the 1980s, capital market instruments (equity finance, CP, etc.) had regained strength in corporate
finance in J apan. Financial institutions often lost their best customers and frantically sought new borrowers. They found
new customers typically among construction, real estate and non-bank financial sectors. Although the business activities of
these new customers involved substantial risks, banks tended to lack information to evaluate these risks properly. As a
result, those new loans were backed by real estate collateral. Market values of real estate collateral were based on a very
optimistic future assessment, and this, in turn, fueled the bubble formation.
42
Non Non- -manufacturing: delay in adjustments manufacturing: delay in adjustments
-- weaker market competition
-- lack of global competition
--public regulations
High costs imposed on
-- consumers
-- tradable sector businesses
-- business startups
-- inward FDI
Changes in Environment
-- globalization
-- developments of IT
-- FDI
Necessity of
-- creativity
-- risk-taking
Delay in Adjustments in Non-Manufacturing (Non-Tradable) Sectors
In addition to the lack of international competition, a slower pace of economic growth after the end of the
catch-up process limited the space for market competition in the non-manufacturing (non-tradable) sectors.
The traditional J apanese market system and public regulations continued to restrict competition and
protected matured or declining sectors.
The lack of competition led to lower productivity in these sectors, which in turn imposed high costs on
consumers and growing manufacturing industries.
Owing to the globalization of economic activities and rapid development of information technology, the
J apanese economy had entered an era of a diverse, knowledge economy. Here, even the competitiveness of
the nontradable sectors is determined by creative ideas and risk-taking innovative behavior.
43
?Corporate managers – interested
in expansion of the company and stable
relations with stakeholders;
overlooked profitability and risks
?Banks–struggled for new customers;
lacked risk assessment of borrowers
?Capital market – lost corporate
monitoring function; equity finance
The The “ “bubble bubble” ” economy economy
Employment
practice
Consensus
for job
security
Call for
int’l policy
coordination
Yen’s
appreciation
Race for size expansion
Neglecting risks & profits
Economic stimulus
by BOJ and gov’t
Moral hazard
5 5- -2 Japanese (poor) corporate governance 2 Japanese (poor) corporate governance
that caused the bubble that caused the bubble
Into the ‘Bubble’ Economy
In the second half of the 1980s, J apan developed a ‘bubble’ economy. Major factors that drove the
J apanese into the speculative boom were competition among firms seeking an expansion of their
company size, competition in the banking sector to expand the loan supply and other investments without
due consideration of credit risks, and economic stimulus measures taken by the Bank of J apan and the
government in the face of the Yen’s rapid appreciation after the Plaza Accord. Many factors were
attributable to the J apanese-style market system. The lack of sound corporate governance both in non-
financial and financial entities, and the social consensus demanding job security as a result of the
ingrained long-term employment practices can also both be blamed.
44
Asset prices
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1
9
8
4
.
0
1
1
9
8
5
.
0
1
1
9
8
6
.
0
1
1
9
8
7
.
0
1
1
9
8
8
.
0
1
1
9
8
9
.
0
1
1
9
9
0
.
0
1
1
9
9
1
.
0
1
1
9
9
2
.
0
1
1
9
9
3
.
0
1
1
9
9
4
.
0
1
end June, end December
L
a
n
d
p
r
i
c
e
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
N
i
k
k
e
i
a
v
e
r
a
g
e
Land price
increase (left)
Stock
price
(right)
5 5- -3 Emergence of 3 Emergence of
the the ‘ ‘bubble bubble’ ’
Monetary aggregates
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2123456789
1
0
1
1
1
2
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
?
???
?????
Social pressure to maintain job security
J apan’s labor market practice (long-term employment) had led to a strong national consensus demanding job security and
no firings or lay-offs. Under the practice of long-term employment and seniority-based internal promotion, companies were
compelled to try to ever expand their size in order to offer a sufficient number of posts in their company hierarchy.
The government was expected to avoid recession to keep unemployment low. However, in September 1985, there was the
signing of the so-called Plaza Accord which triggered a rapid appreciation of the yen. The yen’s rapid appreciation was a
threat to the J apanese economy that relied so heavily on exportsto the US market. In order to avoid an economic slump, the
government took fiscal stimulus measures, and the Bank of J apan took an extremely accommodative monetary policy. This
stimulating policy stance was maintained even after the real estate and stock market booms began to emerge; this flooding
of money supply thereby further fueled the bubble economy.
Emergence of the bubble
The two-digit rate of expansion of monetary aggregates fueled asset market inflation. Land prices rose by 50% on average
nationwideduring the second half of the 1980s. In Tokyo and other metropolitan business districts, land prices even tripled,
peaking in early 1991. Stock prices in terms of the Nikkei average quadrupled to peak values at the end of 1989.
As J apanese became more and more optimistic regarding the futurecourse of the economy, massive funds were poured into
domestic and overseas business projects. The resultant build-up of ‘excesses’, such as excess capacity, excess employment,
excess liability and excess loan supply, necessitated a long process of stock adjustments once the bubble economy collapsed
in the early 1990s.
Financial institutions that were insensitive to risks
J apan’s financial institutions were not sensitive enough to credit andother risks, as they had been protected by the ‘convoy
system’ led by the Ministry of Finance. They found new customers in construction, real estate, and non-bank financial
sectors, and provided loans to them with real estatecollateral. This created a typical spiral increase in real estate values and
loan supply.
45
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1985 1986 1987
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
??????????
???????
????????
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1985 1986 1987
????
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
Real GDP growth (left)
Growth of
export (left)
Discount
rate
P
e
a
k
B
o
t
t
o
m
F
i
s
c
a
l
p
a
c
k
a
g
e
Accommodative macroeconomic policy
Macroeconomic
Policy that fueled
speculative bubble
-- Reaction to yen’s
appreciation
-- “Black Monday”
-- Low interest rates
remained until 1989
-- Fiscal stimulus
in 1987
46
Average annual
growth rate
1956?60 8.8%
1961?65 9.2%
1966?70 11.1%
1971?75 4.5%
1976?80 4.4%
1981?85 3.3%
1986?90 4.9%
1991?95 1.5%
1996?2000 1.0%
2001?05 1.4%
Source: ESRI, Cabinet Office, "Annual Report on National Accounts“
Note: data after 1995 is based on chain-linking method, 2000 price.
Note: data before 1980 are based on
the 1968-based SNA.
0.2
1.1
1.9
2.6
1.4
-1.8
2.9
0.1
1.8
2.3
2.6
6.8
5.3
5.2
3.4
1.0
0.4
-0.2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1
9
8
8
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
%
GDP growth rate
Nominal growth
Real growth
5 5- -4 Burst Bubble and the 4 Burst Bubble and the ‘ ‘Lost Decade Lost Decade’ ’
Low rate of economic growth persisted after the bubble burst
After the collapse of the ‘bubble’ economy in early 1991, the J apanese economy rapidly fell into recession.
It technically bottomed out in late 1993, but the recovery process was slow and fragile, with an average
annual growth rate of only one percent plusthroughout the 1990s and the early part of the 2000s.
Changes in employment practices
During this post-bubble period, the J apanese economy experienced negative growth in real terms in two
different years. The unemployment rate that used to be only one to two percent until the early 1980s
steadily rose to 5% in 2000. The share of ‘non-regular’ employees, such as part-time workers, fixed-term
workers, and temp workers sent out by ‘temp agencies,’ had drastically increased, signifying a departure
from the long-term employment practice.
End of the ‘convoy system’
Corporate profits stagnated. As a result of the accumulation of non-performing loans and the plunge in the
market values of equities, some major financial institutions (e.g. Hokkaido TakushokuBank, Yamaichi
Securities, both in 1997) went bankrupt for the first time in the history of post WWII development of the
J apanese economy. This signified the end of the ‘convoy system.’
Persistent deflation
The J apanese economy experienced persistent deflation starting in the middle of the 1990s (which has in
fact just recently ended). This, too, was a phenomenon never before experienced in the post-war
development of J apan.
‘Lost Decade’
Thus, the J apanese economy suffered significant stagnation, and the decade after the bursting of the bubble
is now called the ‘lost decade’ in post-war Japanese development history. It was only after 2002 that the
economy entered a steady, albeit weak, recovery phase.
47
Source: OECD
"Economic Outlook 74
(Dec. 2003)
5 5- -5 Adjustment process after the bubble burst 5 Adjustment process after the bubble burst
Real GDP development in
economies with 'bubble' experience
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
7
1
9
8
8
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
Japan
USA
UK
Sweden
Finland?
1985=100
Comparative analyses of post-bubble developments
Speculative bubble formation and bursting occurred between the late 1980s and the early 1990s not only
in J apan but also in the US and Scandinavian economies, and to alesser degree, in the UK economy. In
those countries, after the collapse, painful adjustments of excess capacity and redundancy were carried
out often with rather drastic financial stabilization measures including temporary nationalization of major
banks. Their real GDP shrank and unemployment rates jumped up during transition. Sweden and Finland
went through a severe transition phase.
In contrast, in J apan a top priority was to maintain employment, and therefore drastic measures were
avoided. Companies tried to hoard their employees. The government pumped massive amounts of money
into the economy through public works and tax cuts. The Bank of J apan poured literally unlimited
liquidity into the economy. Faced with failing borrowers and an accumulation of non-performing loans,
banks, at least initially, continued to supply additional loans in order to let borrowers survive. They
propped up their sick and hobbling customers, but with further burdening debt.
As such, in spite of the burst of probably the largest bubble among the aforementioned countries, the
J apanese economy maintained slightly positive rates of growth inthe first half of the 1990s. However,
this strategy of preserving employment prolonged the following adjustment process and increased the
total adjustment costs. With the bankruptcies of some major financial institutions in late 1997, the
stagnancy of the J apanese economy continued into the 21
st
century.
48
Source?OECD “Economic Outlook 79”(J une 2006?
General government budget
balance ?% of GDP?
-5.2
-7.9
-7.5
-5.9
-5.1
-4.2
0.8
2.1
0.3
-4.7
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1
9
8
8
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
Cyclical balance
Structural balance
Budget balance
?
Projected
5 5- -6 Deterioration of the government fiscal balance 6 Deterioration of the government fiscal balance
Macroeconomic policy
Policy options that J apanese had after the bubble burst were (i) traditional macroeconomic stimulus
measures (fiscal and monetary), (ii) financial measures to restore the financial intermediary system, and
(iii) structural measures to speed the disposal of ‘excesses’ built up during the bubble period and to develop
new business sectors. In fact, the chosen policy mix was traditional macroeconomic stimuli, partly coupled
with financial rehabilitation measures. The necessity of structural reforms was not fully recognized at least
until the latter half of the 1990s.
Discretionary fiscal policy and ‘structural’ budget deficit
J apan adopted a discretionary fiscal policy, which is the utilization of measures like tax reduction and
public investment, to stabilize the economy. The subsequent build-up of budget deficits shows the extent of
this massivebudgetary support for the ailing economy. The budget deficit canbe broken down into two
parts. One is the cyclical deficit that reflects the functioning of the automatic stabilizer such as tax revenues
and unemployment benefits. The other part represents structural deficit. This latter part comes from
intentional fiscal policies such as tax cuts and expenditure programs, and from institutional factors such as
subsidies, education expenses, and social security and taxation systems.
Since the bubble burst, the majority of J apan’s general government budget deficit has been structural,
which has expanded rapidly due to repeated economic stimulus measures taken in the 1990s.
49
Source: OECD “Economic Outlook 78”
? Dec. 2005?
Note: General government budget
Budget balance?% of GDP?
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
?
Japan
Italy
USA Germany
UK
France
Government debt ?% of GDP?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
?
Japan
USA
Italy
UK
France
Germany
Japanese budget balance in comparison to the other industrial economies
In the 1990s, most industrialized economies consolidated their budgets, and some even attained
budget surplus. J apan, on the contrary, experienced a sharp deterioration of the budget balance,
from a surplus in 1990, to a massive deficit of more than 7% of GDP by the turn of the century.
As the social security account has maintained a surplus of about 2% of GDP during this period,
the central and local governments have been in fact running a deficit worth about 9% of GDP.
Budget deficit has been largely financed by issuance of government bonds and by other kinds of
borrowings. As a result, the outstanding government debt has reached 160% of GDP. J apan is
now the country with the world’s largest government debt.
50
Source: Financial Service Agency
Note: end of fiscal year
Nonperforming loans and disposal
13. 1
17. 5
26. 2
34. 8
42
0
5
10
15
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
N
o
n
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
i
n
g
l
o
a
n
a
n
n
u
a
l
d
i
s
p
o
s
a
l
0
10
20
30
40
50
N
o
n
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
i
n
g
l
o
a
n
s
Annual disposal
Nonperforming
(trillion yen)
End of FY
5 5- -7 Non 7 Non- -performing loans of financial institutions performing loans of financial institutions
Non-performing loans
During the bubble period, financial institutions poured money into the real estate sector (more than 100 trillion
yen), taking real estate itself as collateral for loans. When the bubble burst, the construction and real estate
sectors failed to make a profit and quickly became unable to paytheir debts. With plunging real estate prices, the
liquidation of real estate collateral proved insufficient to cover loans. Thus, non-performing loans quickly
accumulated on a massive scale.
Disposal of non-performing loans
The disposal of NPLs started in 1992. At the time of the adoption of the comprehensive economic package in the
summer of 1992, J apan already recognized the gravityof its NPL problem, based on observation of other
countries’ earlier problems with NPLs. The package that the J apanese government enactedaimed at disposal of
NPLs and recovery of the real estate market and asset prices. The package contained measures such as
liquidation (sales) of real estate collateral, preferential tax treatment on NPL disposal, disclosures of NPLs by the
lending institutions, and resolution of non-bank financial institutions such as housing loan companies. Some
economists and politicians, learning from experiences of other countries, were aware at that time that an injection
of public money would be necessary to dispose of NPLs in the banking sector, however, the general public was
in no mood to support this recapitalization as the public believed that the banking sector itself was the major
cause of the speculative bubble. Only after a series of bankruptcies at major financial institutions took place in
1997 and 1998 was public money injected into financial institutions, which enabled banks to finally dispose of
NPLs to a large degree. The recovery of a sound financial systemwas a key factor in bringing the economy back
in 2002 to the steady (although still weak) growth path.
51
Part VI: Part VI:
Structural Reforms Structural Reforms
in in
The Japanese Development Model The Japanese Development Model
52
Employment system
Main-bank system
Corporate management
Cross share holding
Parts supplier Keiretsu
Industrial policy/regulation
Employment system
Main-bank system
Corporate management
Cross share holding
Parts supplier Keiretsu
Industrial policy/regulation
Major challenge
IT and globalization?
Mega-competition
Aging of labor force
Change of values
Major challenge Major challenge
IT and globalization IT and globalization? ?
Mega Mega- -competition competition
Aging of labor force Aging of labor force
Change of values Change of values
6 6- -1 Japanese System in Transformation 1 Japanese System in Transformation
?Marketization, competition, choice, diversity, own risk
?Cohabitation and competition of systems
based on comparative advantage
?Marketization, competition, choice, diversity, own risk
?Cohabitation and competition of systems
based on comparative advantage
Structural
reform
Rationale of the system
The J apanese-style market system consisted of (i) an employment system utilizing long-term employment,
seniority-based wage structure, on-the-job training and intra-firm labor unions, (ii) a main-bank system,
(iii) corporate management by managers promoted from employees, (iv) corporate groups united by cross
share-holding, (v) a long-standing trade relationship between parts suppliers and assemblyproducers or
between manufacturers and distributors, the so-called keiretsu, and (vi) long-term relationships between
the government and business sectors through industrial policy and public regulations.
It was believed that the aforementioned deep, longstanding relationships would mitigate the problem of
asymmetric information, such as agency problems between employers and employees, and between
bankers and borrowers. It also brought about a long-term perspective in corporate management and
facilitated long-term strategic investment. However, in the post catch-up era, this same system appears to
have helped bring about problems such as the bubble economy of the late 1980s and the persistent low
growth throughout the 1990s and beyond, even to present day.
Changing environment and challenges to the system
The major challenges to the J apanese-style market system are: (i) changes in the industrial structureand
business environment, brought about by an advancement of information and telecommunication
technology, which calls for more flexible and timely management and transactions; (ii) the ongoing
process of globalization and mega-competition; (iii) the aging of the population and workforce; and (iv)
changes in people’s values. These evolving factors have undermined the effectiveness of the traditional
system, and call for a systemic change for further economic development.
Structural reforms and a system evolving for the future
J apan’s ongoing structural reform combines a transformation of the economy into a more market-oriented
system with less government interventions/guidance, while still utilizing the advantages of the traditional
J apanese system. Key words for this reform have been ‘marketization’, ‘choice’, ‘competition’, ‘diversity,’
and ‘own risk.’ There is still great potential for taking further advantage of information sharing. The
government, redefined from its earlier role, needs to create institutions to coordinate with this evolving
system and ensure it fully integrates into this new paradigm. Inreality, the pace of change differs and there
is not a complete and total break with the past. Various systems, some of which are more market-oriented
and others which rely more on institutional trade relations, will continue to co-exist with dynamic
competition among them.
53
Environmental
change
– Financial liberalization
– Strengthening of
corporate financial
basis
– Growing diversity
among banks
Weakening of
main-bank function
– Weakening corporate
governance and
screening/monitoring
during the “ bubble”
period
– Weakening of the
insurance function in
the 1990s
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
????
????????
??????
Up Down Unch.
Share of mainbank loans
Mainbanks changed
Companies whose
bank loans
increased
Companies whose
bank loans largely
increased
Real estate
companies
Banking loan share between 1985 Banking loan share between 1985? ?90 90
among companies expanding loans among companies expanding loans
Economic white paper 1996
6 6- -2 Weakening of main 2 Weakening of main- -bank functions bank functions
54
Lack of corporate discipline during the “ bubble”
6 6- -3 Declining cross share 3 Declining cross share- -holdings holdings
Weak capital market governance due to
cross share-holding
– Weak discipline imposed by capital market
Rapid weakening of cross share-holding
1987 1995 1999
Shares issued by business corporations
ratio of stable holders 29.7% 28.7% 27.9%
(of which) held by FIs 22.0% 20.1% 12.9%
Shares issued by banks
ratio of stable holders 55.7% 53.3% 45.6%
(of which) held by companies 34.4% 32.9% 28.5%
1987 1995 1999
Shares issued by business corporations
ratio of stable holders 29.7% 28.7% 27.9%
(of which) held by FIs 22.0% 20.1% 12.9%
Shares issued by banks
ratio of stable holders 55.7% 53.3% 45.6%
(of which) held by companies 34.4% 32.9% 28.5%
Nissei Research Institute (adjusted for change in disclosure rules)
55
6 6- -4 Weakening of 4 Weakening of
Japanese Japanese- -style employment practices style employment practices
– Aging of workers leading to higher wage cost
– Development of “ external” labor market
• Dependence on part-time and other irregular workers
• Development of temp services
– Lowering of growth of corporate size
– Changes in industry structure, globalization and IT
• Manufacturing industries: skill transfer through OJT,
process innovation, and team work
• Knowledge based industries: higher speed and risk of
innovation, leading to more flexible recruitment from
external labor market and ability-based wage
determination
Disadvantages of the Japanese-Style Labor Market System in the Post Catch-Up Era
There are issues both embedded inside and lurking outside the J apanese-style employment system that spell trouble
for J apan’s future labor situation: (i) differentiation between regular employees and spot or part-time employees,
i.e., a problem in terms of distinct benefits, as part-time workers are not privy to retirement packages and they may
face future earnings shortages; (ii) potential undermining of the system due to changes in consciousness or values
of younger-generation workers; (iii) the absolute necessity of a company tocontinuously grow, in order to be able
to maintain the J apanese-style employment scheme, particularly the seniority-based promotion system; and (iv)
rigidity of personnel (human resources) and resultant inflexibility in adapting new business opportunities and
introducing new technology.
The inability to downsize due to J apan’s aversion to layoffs has made technological advances not only unnecessary
but also unwelcome, and this has become increasingly debilitatingas the share of knowledge-based industry, such
as IT and life-science industries, has expanded rather quickly. In the traditional manufacturing sector, company-
specific technology is highly important, and technology transfer through on-the-job training and process
innovation had built J apan’s competitive edge. In the knowledge-based sectors, however, competitiveness is
determined by technology, and the frontrunner is on the cutting edge. As companies are compelled to employ
professionally-skilled workers directly from an external labor market, compensation must be based on the abilities
and skills of individual workers. The seniority-based wage system becomes an obstacle that chokes away
companies’ growth potential. To facilitate the quick restructuring of companies and branches, it is imperative that
organizations be as flexible as possible.
Anecdotally, there have been many occasions when J apanese-style employment practices have been revised.
However on a macro level, the old system still dominates. Schemes such as the seniority-based wage systems and
corporate pension schemes still contribute to the long-term employment system. A likely scenario in the future
would be that, while traditional employment practices will survive among many manufacturing companies where
company-specific technology, long-term job training, and skill transfer are crucial, more flexiblesystems will
come to prevail among IT and service industries. Thus both the traditional and new employment systems will
coexist according to industry needs.
56
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
J apan
UK
West Germany
USA
Comparison of wage profile
?production workers in manufacturing?
Survey year
J apan: 1994
UK: 1991
Germany? 1972
USA? 1969
??????????
Economic Whitepaper 1996
Wage index: 25-29-year-olds=100
Age groups
W
a
g
e
i
n
d
e
x
Wage profile to change
Seniority-based compensation has been seen as a strong incentive to stay in the same company in
J apan. A cross-country comparison of wage profiles by age groups shows that J apan’s relative
(indexed) wage level is a little lower than those in other countries at younger age groups, while it
is significantly higher from the 30s through the 50s. If the wage profile in the majority of
countries reflects labor productivity by age, then J apan’s wage level has been kept artificially
lower than that warranted by productivity when workers are young, then artificially higher when
the workers become older. However, J apan’s wage profile has been changing in the 21
st
century,
albeit at a slow pace.
USA (25-34=1) J apan (25-29=1)
57
41.8
87.1
100.0
100.0
23.4
0.0
100.0
7.5
97.3
100.0
55.6
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Total
Agriculture/Forestry/Fishery
Mining
Construction
Manufactur
Wholesale/Retail
Finance/Securities
Real estate
Transport/Telecom
Electricity/Gas supply
Service
Excessive regulation
Weakening of the sense of risk
Reduced business opportunities
Inadequate business adjustments
Excessive regulation
Weakening of the sense of risk
Reduced business opportunities
Inadequate business adjustments
6 6- -5 Regulatory Reform 5 Regulatory Reform
10,054
10,278
11,402 11,581
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1985 1988 1993 1999
Number of regulations
USA
1977 17%
1988 6.6%
USA
1977 17%
1988 6.6%
JAPAN
1965 47.8%
1990 41.8%
JAPAN
1965 47.8%
1990 41.8%
Percentage of industries under
government regulation in 1990
Economic White Paper 1995
(1) Coverage of regulation (1) Coverage of regulation
Regulatory Reform
Excessive government regulation on businesses and financial institutions tended to weaken their
sense of risk or discouraged risk-taking behavior, dulled the threat of competition, and delayed
their adjusting to changes in the business environment.
‘Economic regulations’ and ‘social regulations’ have numbered more than 10,000 for many years,
according to data produced by the Management and Coordination Agency. At the turn of the
century, that number was actually increasing. But that is not necessarily to say that J apan was
going in the wrong direction. In fact, as regulatory reform proceeds, regulation tends to be
unbundled into several regulations, particularly in the case of partial deregulation. In J apan’s
financial sectors, ambiguous regulations were changed to more specific regulations, and in the
process, the number of regulations increased.
An estimate using input-output table data showed that in 1990, 42% of J apan’s production was
under some kind of regulation (permission, approval, registration, etc.). Apparently, this figure
overstated the amount of regulation because of limitations in data collection (if any part of an
industry was under regulation, then the entire industry was counted as regulated). Still, a
comparison with US regulatory reform revealed that J apan had not yet achieved substantial
reform (as of 1990). In the US, the percentage of regulated industries (on an output basis)
declined significantly during the Ford, Carter, and Reagan administrations’ regulatory reform
period.
Despite a long period of renewed regulatory reform that started after the bubble burst, no
significant drop in regulation was observed in J apan until the late 1990s.
58
(2) Costs Associated with Regulation (2) Costs Associated with Regulation
High-cost structure
High-cost structure
Price differential
Consumer price level
NY 100 vs. Tokyo 141 (1998)
Slow adjustment to
Changes in environment
Slow adjustment to
Changes in environment
High-cost pressure on
tradable industries
Lack of innovation and
new business opportunity
Lack of innovation and
new business opportunity
Manufacturing: Developed
various new products
Non-manufacturing: almost
no new services developed
Price Gaps between Home and Abroad =
Price Gaps between (unregulated) Tradable and (regulated) Non-Tradable Sectors
+ Price Gaps in Tradables Created by Border Protections (tariffs, etc.)
The costs associated with regulation
1) Regulation brings about a high-cost structure. This leads to price differentials between
regulated and not-as-regulated markets, and in J apan’s case, the price differential was between
J apanese and overseas markets. In 1998, consumer prices (in aggregate) were 41% higher in
Tokyo than in New York City (data source: Economic Planning Agency). A high-cost structure
imposes a cost burden on tradable sectors and weakens their international competitiveness.
2) Regulation weakens regulated industries’ incentives to adjust to changes in the economic
environment. Tightly regulated industries tend to perform worsewhen the economic environment
worsens.
3) Regulation restricts opportunities and weakens business’ capacity for innovation. The J apanese
manufacturing sector has developed and commercialized various new products, such as the fax,
VCR, and lap-top computer. The non-manufacturing sector, on the other hand, has merely
imported new services developed in foreign countries (with an exception of rental video shops).
59
(3) Economic effects of the 1990s (3) Economic effects of the 1990s’ ’ regulatory reform regulatory reform
Telecom
Cable TV
Satellite TV
Retail
Farmland
Electricity
Temporary
personnel svcs.
Sector Period
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
Airline
Total
96-97
Effect
6.86
0.30
0.24
3.12
0.68
0.32
0.03
0.17
11.85 tril. yen
Demand expansion
Sector Period Effect
Telecom
Share brokerage
Car exam
Airline
CBond
Oil products
Electricity
Gas supply
Total
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
96-97
7.10
0.26
0.49
0.24
0.08
1.78
1.07
0.05
11.33 tril. yen
Economic Planning Agency (1999)
“Total” includes items other than those listed
Consumer surplus expansion
?Annual average)
60
1980s
Late 1970s -- aimed at lowering paperwork costs
1981 -- Administrative Reform Committee, proposed
privatization of NTTPC and JNR
The first half of 1980s -- US-Japan financial sector
consultation, start of financial liberalization
1989 -- US-Japan Structural Impediment Initiative,
discussed regulatory reform, business practices, etc.
1990s
1993 -- “ Hiraiwa Report” proposed liberalization as a
rule
1995 -- Regulatory Reform 3-Year Plan
1998 -- Economic Strategy Committee
(4) History of J apan (4) History of J apan’ ’s regulatory reform up to the 1990s s regulatory reform up to the 1990s
History of Japan’s regulatory reform up to the 1990s
J apan’s regulatory reform process started at the end of the 1970s, mainly aiming to recreate a compact
government and to reduce ‘red-tape’ costs. In 1981, the Second Temporary Council of Research on Public
Administration System (“Daini-Rincho”) was established. It emphasized private sector vitality, international
harmonization and people’s welfare, and advised various administrative reforms. Among others, it advocated
privatization—or at least partial privatization—of three public corporations (NTTPC—a telecom company—in
1985, J apan National Railway in 1987, and J apan Tobacco Monopolyin 1985).
In the early 1980s, J apan’s trade surplus ballooned and international calls strengthened for J apan’s market
opening and regulatory reforms. The J apanese government tried to shift export-led growth to domestic-demand-
led growth on both macroeconomic and microeconomic fronts.
Interest rate liberalization began in the second half of the 1970s, induced by an expansion of national bond
issuance and by the globalization of financial services. In 1984the J oint US-J apan Ad Hoc Group on Yen/Dollar
Exchange Rate, Financial and Capital Market Issues started and promoted financial sector regulatory reform. In
1989, J apan and the US initiated the Structural Impediment Initiative (SII), under which they discussed J apan’s
market opening from the context of changes in regulation and business practices.
After the bubble burst, when the economy was stagnating and the yen was appreciating, regulatory reform came
to be seen as the key to revitalize the economy, by (1) overcoming business’ and household sectors’ lack of
confidence, (2) lowering high business costs, and (3) enhancing business opportunity in the domestic market.
In 1993, an advisory group to the government of J apan released the so-called ‘Hiraiwa Report,’ advocating that
economic regulation should be liberalized as a rule, while social regulation should be minimized under the
principle of ‘self responsibility.’ In March 1995, the government adopted a comprehensive action plan for
regulatory reform (which was subsequently revised in 1998). It addressed 1,091 lines of regulations and set a
concrete time schedule to dismantle them.
61
Japan has tended to avoid “ trial and error” process
– Even in the US, the airline case was exceptional
– Privatization in UK lacked competition scheme
– Price cap system in UK
“ Bottom-up” in the US, “ top-down” in Japan/UK
Japan’s regulatory body was also an administrator
of industrial policies
– US, UK: independent regulatory commission
– Checks and balances with industrial policy
administration, competition offices and local
government
Empirical analyses had not been utilized
EPA team conducted CGE-model-based analyses in late 1990s
( (? ?) Characteristics of regulatory reform process in J apan ) Characteristics of regulatory reform process in J apan
up to the 1990s as compared to that in the US and UK up to the 1990s as compared to that in the US and UK
Characteristics of Japan’s regulatory reform (up to the 1990s)
-- Because the J apanese government tended to avoid the trial and error correction process, it took a long
time to consider new schemes and persuade all stakeholders. However, in the case of network industry
reforms where innovation proceeded rapidly, reform delay could turn out to be a fatal mistake. The
UK’s privatization process of its national public utilities was a good example of the trial-and-error way
from which J apan can learn. Also, the UK’s setting of the price-cap scheme was a typical trial-and-error
process.
-- In the US, deregulation processes were often triggered by new entrants taking advantage of legal or
administrative loopholes, without prior consent by incumbents and regulatory authorities. A typical case
was MCI’s entry in the long-distance telecommunications market. In J apan, such loopholes were hard to
find and businesses tend to avoid a struggle with regulatory agencies, with notable exceptions of door-
to-door parcel delivery service and lower pricing by a few taxi cabcompanies.
-- In the US and UK, semi-independent regulatory commissions carry out actual regulatory
administration, while separate government organizations cover industrial policies and regulatory design.
The judicial sector, antitrust authorities, and—in the US—state governments were also involved. In
J apan, both regulatory administration and industrial design, among other things, were directed by a
single government agency, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI). And while a
separate authority, the Fair Trade Commission, was in charge of governing competition, it did not exert
visible influence. A concentration of both planning and execution (and monitoring) functions caused
conflicts of interest and made the process non-transparent.
-- In J apan’s regulatory reform process, empirical/scientific assessments of existing regulation and their
reform have seldom been utilized. In the late 1990s, some cost-benefit analyses and CGE-model-based
analyses were beginning to be carried out.
62
Change in policy formation style
-- Strengthening the role of Cabinet for policy formation
-- Weakening the influence of the MOF
-- Weakening the voice of the Liberal Democratic Party
Change in policy formation style
-- Strengthening the role of Cabinet for policy formation
-- Weakening the influence of the MOF
-- Weakening the voice of the Liberal Democratic Party
Settlement of the “Bubble”economy aftermath
-- Banking reform, esp. disposal of NPLs
-- Budget consolidation, esp. reduction in public works
Settlement of the “Bubble”economy aftermath
-- Banking reform, esp. disposal of NPLs
-- Budget consolidation, esp. reduction in public works
Measures to cope with depopulation and aging
-- Reform of social security, health and disability insurance
Measures to cope with depopulation and aging
-- Reform of social security, health and disability insurance
6 6- -6 PM Koizumi 6 PM Koizumi’ ’s economic reform measures s economic reform measures
(2001 (2001 – – 2006) 2006)
The Koizumi Cabinet reforms
Former Prime Minister J unichiroKoizumi conducted a series of major reforms of the J apanese economy
between April 2001 and September 2006. Some were successfully carried out while others met with only
nominal success. The continuing agenda of his reform initiatives was then inherited by the next cabinet of
PM ShinzoAbe. Koizumi’s reform efforts can be classified into three categories: (i) reform of the policy
formation process itself; (ii) cleaning up the aftermath of the ‘bubble economy’ of the late 1980s and
subsequent long-term slump; and (iii) forward-looking reform of the J apanese economic and social
structures and institutions.
Transformation of policy formation process
J apan’s policy formation process inside the Administration used to be rather ambiguous and lacked clear
leadership. Policy proposals were regularly originated from the ministries in charge, through massive
negotiations with other ministries and particularly with the powerful Ministry of Finance. Then they were
intensively discussed within the leading Liberal Democratic Party through a complicated procedure, and
finally they had to be approved by the General Affairs Committeeof the LDP with the consensus of all the
members—and all of this before the bills could be submitted to the Diet. The ruling party LDP’sleadership
was broken into factions which controlled various political campaign’s financing and recommended
candidates for ministers in the Cabinet to the PM. Therefore, the decision-making relied heavily on the
balance of power among these LDP factions.
PM Koizumi substantially altered this regime through his initiatives to increase prime ministerial
leadership. He did this by strengthening the power of the cabinet, via (1) establishing the Council on
Economic and Fiscal Policy to be chaired by himself, the PM, (2) expanding cabinet staff, (3) weakening
the MOF in policy formation, and (4) strengthening control over LDP factions.
Clearing the ‘bubble’ aftermath
The ‘bubble’ economy of the late 1980s and subsequent extended slump left the J apanese economy with
major problems, and the Koizumi Administration confronted the long-lasting remnants of the burst bubble.
First, the government aggressively pursued the disposal of accumulated non-performing loans, more or less
getting rid of them. Second, the Koizumi administration attackedthe massive budget deficit, halving the
‘primary’ deficit from the 2002 peak level. However, the stock of the general government’s debt continues
to be large relative to the size of the economy (in excess of 160% of GDP).
(continue to the next page)
63
Delegation of authority from public sector to private sector
-- Privatization of the postal service/postal savings
-- Reform of state-owned financial institutions
-- Privatization of public highway corporations
-- “Marketizationtest”of public businesses
-- Regulatory reform, esp. creation of special zones
Delegation of authority from public sector to private sector
-- Privatization of the postal service/postal savings
-- Reform of state-owned financial institutions
-- Privatization of public highway corporations
-- “Marketizationtest”of public businesses
-- Regulatory reform, esp. creation of special zones
Delegation of authority from central to local government
-- ‘Trinity reform’ of function, revenue,
and intra-gov’t transfers
-- Promotion of merger of municipalities
Delegation of authority from central to local government
-- ‘Trinity reform’ of function, revenue,
and intra-gov’t transfers
-- Promotion of merger of municipalities
Private sector reform
-- Strengthening of the Fair Trade Law to bar collusion
-- Regulatory reform, esp. creation of special zones
-- Corporate governance reform, facilitating M&A
Private sector reform
-- Strengthening of the Fair Trade Law to bar collusion
-- Regulatory reform, esp. creation of special zones
-- Corporate governance reform, facilitating M&A
Reforms to cope with rapid aging and depopulation
J apan is now one of the most rapidly aging economies in the world, where the age-dependency ratio has been
rapidly increasing. J apan’s population hit its peak in 2004 (at 127.8 million) and startedto decline in 2005 for
the first time in its history. The population share of the ages 65 or over, that stood at 17.3% at the turn of the
century, is expected to climb up to 22.5% in 2010, 27.8% in 2020, and 35.7% in 2050.
The social security reform has been conducted, including public pension, health insurance and nursery care
insurance. However, as the speed of aging has been very rapid, further reforms are needed.
Initiatives to shift authority from the public sector to the private sector
Another major Koizumi reform initiative was to shift functions and resources from the public sector to the
private sector. Some major privatization programs were conducted, however as seen in the Postal reform
which is to be completed in 2018, they were often nominal and subject to future political environments.
Initiatives to shift authority from the central government to local governments
Another major category of reform was ‘decentralization’, i.e. a shift of authorities/functions and budgetary
resources from the central government to local governments. The ‘trinity reform’ of (1) shifting
functions/authorities to the local government, (2) shifting the tax base from the central to local governments,
and (3) reducing transfer taxes and categorical grants to local governments was designed in order to weaken
central government leadership and strengthen local autonomy. As this set of reforms is still underway, strong
leadership is necessary to attain the initial objectives.
64
Expansion of Corporate
Activity and Investment
Self-reliance
of Individuals
Compact and
Efficient Government
Corporate governance
Corporate accounts disclosure
Corporate restructuring
FDI into J apan IT revolution
Employment practices
Corporate pension (401k type)
J ob choice society
Human capital investment
Personal income taxation
Corporate taxation
Entrepreneurship promotion
Social security
Education reform
Labor market liberalization
Budget consolidation
Administrative reform
FILP reform
Local gov’t autonomy
Financial systemreform
Regulatory reform
Electronic government
Public investment reform
Information network
SME policy
Portfolio investment diversification
6 6- -7 Structural Reform: Agenda for Sustainable Growth 7 Structural Reform: Agenda for Sustainable Growth
Building Institutions of Coordination:
From Interventionist Government to Coordinator Government
The necessity for basic structural reform, or marketization, extends to a wide range of the
J apanese economy. Three sectors of the economy have their own reform agenda: i) business and
financial sectors must reform themselves to enhance business andinvestment opportunity; ii)
individuals or the household sector must accept the discipline of self-reliance; and iii) the
government sector must transform itself into a compact and efficient government
respecting/utilizing market forces and utilizing decentralization in a strategic manner.
Changes in business and the government sectors must be compatible with (and accompanied by)
those in the household sector. Self-reliance of individuals involves shifts in lifestyle, from the
traditional reliance on the business community to self-decision-making and risk-taking in
choosing jobs and careers that require investments in the individual, by the individual. Self-
responsibility should be nurtured in the business sector, as opposed to relying on protection
through regulation. The banking sector should stand on its own without the MOF-led ‘convoy’
system’.
Generally speaking, in the business sector, various reforms havealready been started to get out of
the long stagnation of the 1990s. As for the government sector, some reform initiatives have
started in the areas connected to business, such as regulatory reforms and partial tax reforms.
However, for public sector-specific reform areas such as administrative reform and government
decentralization, the process has been much delayed. Budgetary reform had just begun under the
Koizumi administration. As for the household sector, it will take a long time for the majority of
people to change their lifestyle and way of thinking.
As the majority of the reform efforts and new initiatives shouldbe happening in the cross-sections
of the three sectors, the building of ‘institutions of coordination’ or, in other words, nurturing the
‘social capital of intra- and inter-sector networks’ is imperative. The role of the government
should be redefined in precisely this context. That is, a changefrom ‘interventionist government’
to ‘coordinator government’ is now most urgently called for.
65
The Evolution of a Development Paradigm: The Evolution of a Development Paradigm:
A Simplified Review A Simplified Review
After WWII
1960s (early 1970s)
ISI
1980s
SAP
End of the 20
th
C.
& Beyond
PRSP
New Political
Economy of
Development
???
-2015
MDGs
BHN
Role of Government
1985-
Globalization
1989-
Governance
NIE
Social Capital
The New Institutional Economics (NIE) that international development finance institutions started to utilize
in the 1990s has two major principles: 1) institutions define economic performance, and 2) institutions can
be analyzed by microeconomics (of incentive structure). Therefore, it is in a way a fusionof traditional
institutional economics and neo-classical economics. (Neo-classical economics is the one that provided the
basis for ‘structural adjustments’ in the 1980s.)
This new “economics of institutions” is essentially about: 1) reducing transaction costs and 2) facilitating
information flows. Roles of the public sector are captured in the treatment of ownership by the government
and coordination that reduces transaction costs and ensures proper information flow (North). Herein lie the
roots of the good governance arguments. The NIE also defines thetimeframeof the economics of
institutions (Williamson). While governance as a ‘play of the game’ (improving management) has a time
periodof 1 to 10 years, governance as ‘rules of the game’ (fixing the institutional environment) has a time
frequency of 10 to 100 years.
These theoriesare all relevant when we talk about ‘institutions of coordination.’ Public-Private
Partnerships (PPP) and the power structure of related institutions such as decision-making bodies,
regulatory bodies, and partners should be developed in an adaptive manner and given a sufficient amount
of time.
66
Part VII: Part VII:
Aging Japan, Aging Asia Aging Japan, Aging Asia
67
(Source?National Institute of Population and Social Security Research estimate (Dec.2006?
Birth rate
Until early 1970s
Around 2.2
2000 1.36
2005 1.26
Medium case
Same level as now
2030 1.24
2055 1.26
Lower case
Drop until 2020s Drop until 2020s
2030 1.04
2055 1.06
7 7- -1 Aging Japan 1 Aging Japan
Population in Japan
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1
9
5
0
1
9
6
0
1
9
7
0
1
9
8
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
3
0
2
0
4
0
2
0
5
0
million
Lower case
Medium case
Higher
????
?????
million
Unavoidable depopulation and aging Unavoidable depopulation and aging
Depopulation and rapid aging
According to the 50-year projection created by the National Institute of Populationand Social
Security Research released in December 2006, in the standard case, J apan’s population begins to
decrease after its peak of 127.8 million in 2005, and falls to 90 million by 2055. This scenario
assumes the birth rate (average number of babies born per female) to be virtually unchanged from
the current level of 1.25. In a more pessimistic case, assuming a further drop in the birth rate to
nearly one, the population would be 85 million in 2055.
At the same time, the aging of the population is set to further accelerate. According to the
standard scenario, people 65 years and older, now 20% of total population, would reach 40% in
2055, and those under 15 years old, now 14%, would be a mere 8%.
The government of J apan is deeply concerned with this depopulation phenomenon, as it would
create a shortage in the labor force and place a heavier burden regarding social security
contributions on the working generation. Therefore, various measures have been taken to
encourage couples to have more children. So far, the effect seems to be limited and the trends of
depopulation and aging appear unstoppable.
68
Western Western
Europe Europe
Late 14
th
c.
70?80 mil.
40?50 mil
Black death
?0.3%
0.4%
Labor
scarcity
Nation
Time
Decline
Reason
Japan Japan
1730?1800
32 mil.
30 mil.
Famine
Late marriage
Less birth
0.2%
0.3%
Agricultural
technology
Ireland Ireland
Late 19
th
c.
2 mil. In 10
years
Famine
Immigration
0.7%
1.6%
Change to
livestock farming
Hungary Hungary
1980?
0.3% decline
annually
Lower birth
rate
0.6%
0.9%
Marketization
Investment
GDP
GDP
Per capita
Impact
Source: Economic planning Agency (2000)
Cases of economic development under depopulation Cases of economic development under depopulation
Will depopulation bring about economic decline?
It is generally believed that, with depopulation, an economy decelerates or shrinks. However, during
the 2
nd
millennium, a few cases were seen in which economies grew despite population decline.
In J apan in the 18
th
century, the population decreased due partly to famine in Tohoku and epidemic
diseases at an initial stage of urbanization, and partly as a result of late marriages and a smaller
number of babies born to couples in large cities. However, thanks to agricultural technological
progress and development of new fields, farm production increased.
In Ireland in the 19
th
century, depopulation set in as a result of famine and outgoingimmigration.
Labor scarcity encouraged an industrial transformation from labor-intensive agriculture to land-
intensive livestock farming, bringing about higher productivity.
In Hungary, the population has been both decreasing and aging since the 1980s, due to a lower birth
rate, but thanks to catching up technologicallyand the introduction of the market economy, the
growth rate has been on the positive side.
In Western Europe in the 14
th
and 15
th
centuries, the black death wiped out nearly half of the
population. The resultant farm labor shortage widened the per capita farmland, and per capita output
increased significantly.
Lessons from these cases
These examples suggest that a society under the process of depopulation does not necessarily have to
experience economic and social decline. If the social system is reformed, industry structure
transformed, new technology introduced, and thus productivity heightened, economic development
can be attainable even in this challenging environment.
69
East Asia's Saving, Investment,
and CAB
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
5
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
(
%
o
f
G
D
P
)
Gross national savings, incl. NCTR
Gross domestic investment (% of GDP)
CAB (GNS-GDI)
Gross domestic savings
East Asia’s saving ratio (GDS) increased from 22% to 32% in the
1970s, and reached 37% before the AFC, facilitating a healthy
increase in the investment ratio…
The CA deficit also expanded in the 1990s until the AFC came
about. And then ?
70
Age Dependency Ratio
(dependents to working-age population, %)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1
9
6
0
1
9
7
0
1
9
8
0
1
9
9
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
3
0
2
0
4
0
2
0
5
0
Higih Income Cos. Japan
Low & Middle Income Cos. East Asia & Pacific LMICs
Is Doomsday Imminent ?
Determinants of the pri vate saving ratio:
Income (level), rates of return, uncertainty, domestic/foreign borrowing constraints, financial depth,
fiscal policy, pension system, income/wealth distribution, and demographics …
71
Part VIII: Part VIII:
Revolutions and the Evolution Revolutions and the Evolution
of Economic Systems of Economic Systems
72
Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems Revolutions and the Evolution of Economic Systems
(based on Yukio Noguchi, (based on Yukio Noguchi, “ “ IT makes small IT makes small - -scale scale- -organization economy advantageous organization economy advantageous” ” Nikkei, April 5, 2002) Nikkei, April 5, 2002)
Private ownership of
the means of production
State ownership of
the means of production
Larger-scale-organization oriented Smaller-scale-organization oriented
Primitive Market Economy
IT-driven Market Economy
Capitalism
Socialism Utopian Socialism
Industrial Revolution
Socialist Revolution
IT Revolution
Imperialism
Monopoly Capitalism
Japan under the
1940-system
The US economy after the IT revolution
Linux
USSR
Industrialized China
China under Mao Zedong
(Maoist China)
?
73
… … Japan Japan’ ’s Development Experience s Development Experience
Thank You !
doc_719560212.pdf