East Asian Miracle

Description
Presentation on East Asian Miracle followed by the East Asian crisis and reasons for the crisis

?
? ?

?
? ? ? ?

Introduction Meaning of East Asia Miracle Miracles Policies East Asia Crisis Causes of Crisis IMF‘s role Conclusion

?
?

East Asia consist of 23 countries. The main countries are:
? The "Four Tigers," Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. ? The three newly industrializing economies (NIEs) of Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. ? Philippines.

?

The economies of East Asia have experienced substantial and generally sustained economic growth, development and transformation over the past four decades.
In 1950, Asia accounted for just 19 per cent of world income; by 1992, the share had risen to 33 per cent.

?

?

From 1965 to 1990 the twenty-three economies of East Asia grew faster than all other regions.
Most of this achievement is attributable to seemingly miraculous growth in just eight economies

?

?

In the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s Japan and the four Little Dragons (Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong) experienced fast and sustained growth.

?

Equal Income distribution. People‘s living standard improved.

?

?

Rapid economic growth and reduced inequality. Rapid output and productivity growth in agriculture.
Relatively higher rates of manufactured exports.

?

?

?

Earlier and steeper declines in fertility.
Higher growth rates of investment, supported by higher rates of savings. Higher growth rates in human capital.

?

?

?

$94.1 billion dollars flowed into East Asia between 1991 and 1997

?

Growth was fuelled by export promotion, industrial policy, lowered trade barriers, and the rapid accumulation of physical and human capital.
The miracle was fueled by a lot of capital investment…

?

Country Japan

1980-90s 3.8

1991-97 2.4

Hong Kong
Singapore Taiwan Korea Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia China

6.9
7.4 8.2 8.1 5.8 7.3 2.0 5.8 9.8

5.0
8.3 6.4 7.4 8.7 7.4 3.1 6.9 10.3

Economy Economy Hong Kong Hong Kong Indonesia Indonesia Korea Korea Malaysia Malaysia Singapore Singapore Taiwan Taiwan Thailand Thailand

Average CPI 1961-91 % Average CPI 1961-91 % 8.8 8.8 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.2 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 6.2 6.2 5.6 5.6

?

Trade Policy
Industrial Policy Foreign Trade Policy

?

?

?

Strong orientation towards exporting.
Import substitution. Governments in the HPAEs actively encouraged export development and growth. Economic stability, Trade liberalization.

?

?

?

?

?

Most of the HPAEs have pursued, at one time or another, active industry policies. Key elements of policies: =Support for education
= Encouraging financial market regulation = The allocation of finance away from speculative activities. = Liberalized policy

?

Foreign investment has been an important part of the HPAEs superior economic performance.
It is not widely recognized that Asia's share of global FDI stock almost doubled, from 7 per cent to 13 per cent, between 1980 and 1994. This FDI had a strong export-orientation, with most motivated by the desire to build export platforms.

?

?

?

Private domestic investment, combined with rapidly growing human capital, were the principal engines of growth.
High levels of domestic financial savings sustained the HPAEs' high investment levels. Manufactured exports grew extremely rapidly, facilitating the absorption of foreign technology.

?

?

?

Population growth rates declined more rapidly in the HPAEs than in other parts of the developing world, leading to more rapid growth in per capita consumption and larger surpluses for reinvestment.
Finally, the HPAEs have had unusually high productivity growth.

?

?

?The Asian Miracle?
$94.1 billion dollars flowed into East Asia between 1991 and 1997 Growth was fuelled by export promotion, industrial policy, lowered trade barriers, and the rapid accumulation of physical and human capital By 1992, income per capita averaged $11,100

?

?

?



Economies of Southeast Asia had really high interest rates that attracted foreign investors who wanted a high rate of return on their deposits.
In the 1980s and early 1990s, these economies had high growth rates (8-12% GDP)





The miracle was fueled by a lot of capital investment…



Large amount of HOT money flowed into the countries
Hot money=funds that flow into a country to take advantage of high interest rates…very volatile…





Greenspan raised US interest rates (to help fight inflation). Foreign investors pulled their money out of East Asia (capital flight) and invested in the US.
The US dollar appreciated.







Since the US dollar appreciated and the currencies of East Asia were pegged to the dollar…exports weren‘t as attractive.
Southeast Asia export growth slows. Current account balances showed deficits







Asian countries, especially Thailand, were too lenient with lending credit. Corporations and individuals began defaulting on their loans.
Too many office towers were built in Thailand…eventually the real estate market plunged. (sound familiar?). Then, the stock market plunged.





?

July 1996: Bangkok Bank of Commerce fails and the Bank of Thailand expands the money supply to support the financial systems, putting pressure on the baht. May 14, 1997: The stock market declines 7 percent amid political instability
June 19, 1997: Finance Minister Virava resigns sending the stock market tumbling 11 percent July 2, 1997: The fixed exchange rate is abandoned and the Thai is floated freely, devaluing 25 percent

?

?

?

?

Factors contributing to the crisis:
? Speculative attacks

? Deficits in balance of payments
? Inefficient financial systems

? Lack of capital controls
? Exchange Rate regimes ? External debt

?

Korea: Widespread corporate bankruptcy from large firms that borrowed heavily caused foreign banks to become worry that their loans would not be repayed.
Indonesia: Large scale borrowing from off-shore banks with loose regulation made the extent of the firms‘ debt understated. Malaysia: The real estate bubble burst lead to foreign investors selling to sell their stocks causing the stock market to crash and Malaysian banks were left with bad loans. Other countries: Contagion effect – the crisis spread because of investors worrying that others countries in the region would face similar problems

?

?

?

?

The majority of the East Asian economies engaged in capital market liberalization.
?Hot money? flowed out of the countries quickly when negative speculation of occurred leaving financial institutions liquidity strapped. Portfolio equity investment went from $12.4 billion in 1996 to an outflow of $4.3 billion in 1997 in Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Capital inflows of $73 billion turned into outflows of $30 billion in 1997.

?

?

?

?

1997 - 1998 economies hit by banking and exchange rate crises
Greatest economic crisis since Great Depression Most literature focuses on:

?

?

? Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, & Thailand

?

Most affected

? Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines, & Malaysia

?

GDP Dropped significantly and led to
? High rates of unemployment, under utilization of capital, severe economic hardship

?

In 1998 GDP fell by 13.1% in Indonesia, 6.7% in Korea, and 10.8% in Thailand Unemployment Rates
? ? ? ? Malaysia‘s unemployment rose to 405,000 Hong Kong‘s unemployment rose to 152,000 Thailand‘s unemployment rose to 1.1 million Indonesia‘s unemployment rose to 13.7 million

?

? ?

In South Korea, urban poverty tripled In Indonesia, poverty doubled









Prior to the crisis, the baht was 25 to the American dollar. By July 1997, the baht dropped to 56 to the American dollar. The Thai stock market dropped 75% in 1997. Thailand then chose to float the baht.



The drop in the Thai baht led to speculation about its neighboring countries‘ currency.






• •

Rupiah crisis began in August, 1997. Rupiah and stock exchange hit their lowest point in September, 1997. Rupiah was 200 to 1 U.S. dollar. It plunged to 18,000 Rupiah to 1 U.S. dollar. Lost 13.5% of its GDP that year There was chaos in Indonesia—people were starving. They rioted, and 500 people were killed in Jakarta alone.


• • •

• •

Won fell from 800 per US dollar to 1700 per dollar. National Debt to GDP ratio doubled. On November 4 the stock exchange fell 4%. AND THEN, November 8, South Korea suffered its largest one-day decline in its stock market. It dropped another 7%. AND THEN, November 24 it fell another 7.5%. AND THEN…



• •



Kia, South Korea‘s 3rd largest auto manufacturer had to ask for sizable loans. In 1998, Hyundai took over a fledgling Kia. Samsung Motors ($5 billion company) dissolved. Daewoo was sold to General Motors.


• •






Stock markets plunged. Currencies depreciated. Corporations dissolved. Business collapsed. Millions of people fell below the poverty line during 1997-1998. Mostly felt by Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea. New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Hong Kong (not China) felt subtle affects.

Countries Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Korea

% Change 29.3 44.8 44.6 33.5 49.5

Country Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines

% Fall 46.1 34.9 52.3 33.5

Korea

47.8

Country

Stock market fall

Currency depreciation

Singapore Japan
Hong Kong Taiwan China

23% 25.9%
29% 9.3% 4.4%

14.7% 12%
---14.8% ----

Source : International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Portfolio Value ( Initial Investment = $100 )

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

50

0

Jan90

Sep -90

May -91

Jan92

USA

Korea

Taiwan

Malaysia

Thailand

Indonesia

Philippines

Sep -92

May -93

Jan94

Sep -94

May -95

Source : IMF
Jan96 Sep -96 May -97 Jan98 Sep -98

Thai Baht Devaluation

Rep. Korea: GDP growth, savings and investment rates
60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05

12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0

Savings rate

Investment rate

GDP growth rate

Philippines: GDP growth,savings and investment rates
40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05

7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0

Savings rate

Investment rate

GDP growth rate

Indonesia GDP growth, savings and investment rates
35.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 25.0 0.0 20.0 -5.0 15.0 -10.0 -15.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Savings rate Investment rate GDP growth rate

30.0

10.0

Country India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Thailand Philippines

1994 42.11% 631.57% 102.25% -24.89% -41.21% 18.39%

1995 -30.99% 48.78% -37.02% 19.44% 126.29% 11.41%

1996 35.47% 40.29% 89.00% 26.75% 35.23% 15.76%

1997 24.40 %
-32.81% -37.94% -27.28% -74.61% -16.53%

Source : World Bank WDI CD, 1999

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60

40
20 0 India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Thailand

20
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Thailand

Investment
50 45 40 35 30
%GDP

25 20 15 10 5 0 1995 1996 1997 Malaysia 1998 1999 2000 Thailand 2001 Korea 2002 2003 Indonesia

?

?

? ?

?

Hundreds of billions of dollars were on stake due to the crisis Any steps to be taken should be cooperative and international IMF declared series of bailouts Steps taken to rescue the currency, banking systems Aggressively raised interest rates

?

Provided huge amounts of money

? Bailout packages amounted to $95 billion

?

Bailout money used to repay loans of Western bankers IMF imposed:
? High interest rates, decrease in government spending, increase in taxes, devaluation of currency ? Political and economic changes ? Major restructuring ? Increased transparency ? Other minor reforms

?

East Asia

India

Trade played a major role Role of trade in the in these economies economy was less Similar trading partners Share of trade in the GDP was very high Competitive exports to the same countries of East Asia Small amount of trade with East Asia Share of trade in the GDP was very small Exports to other countries also other than East Asia

East Asia

India

High level of privatization in banking sector
Regulation in the banking sector was not enforced High level of NPA‘s Dependence on short term capitals Capital outflow in ?97

Low level of privatization in banking sector
Regulations were enforced in India Low level of NPA‘s Less dependence on short term capitals Capital inflow in ?97



doc_847774395.ppt
 

Attachments

Back
Top