Description
To support the development of the National Intelligence Councils Global Trends 2025, SRI Consulting Business Intelligence (SRIC-BI) was asked to identify six potentially disruptive civil or dual use technologies that could emerge in the coming fifteen years (2025).
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Disruptive Civil Technologies
Six Technologies with Potential Impacts on US
Interests out to 2025
Biogerontechnology
Energy Storage Materials
Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals
Clean Coal Technologies
Service Robotics
The Internet of Things
The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and
research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and
insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues. The views
expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government
positions.
Prepared by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence under the auspices of the
National Intelligence Council. Questions and comments regarding this report
should be directed to the National Intelligence Officer for Science and
Technology on (703) 482-6811.
CR 2008-07
April 2008
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To support the development of the National Intelligence Council’s Global
Trends 2025, SRI Consulting Business Intelligence (SRIC-BI) was asked to
identify six potentially disruptive civil or dual use technologies that could
emerge in the coming fifteen years (2025). A disruptive technology is
defined as a technology with the potential to causes a noticeable – even if
temporary – degradation or enhancement in one of the elements of US
national power (geopolitical, military, economic, or social cohesion).
The six disruptive technologies were identified through a process carried out
by technology analysts from SRIC-BI’s headquarters in Menlo Park,
California, and its European office in Croydon, England.
These analysts are continuously monitoring technology, business, and social
environments for two long-term continuous research programs:
• The SRI Scan™ program identifies and assesses possible futures by
gaining early awareness of signals and patterns of change before they
become conventional wisdom.
• The SRI Explorer program identifies and develops an understanding of
how and why technologies develop. The program also evaluates the
commercial development parameters and uncertainties behind technology
commercialization.
Through a process of online discussions, clustering, development of
technology descriptors, screening, and prioritizing, SRIC-BI Explorer and
Scan™ analysts down-selected from 102 potentially disruptive technologies.
They identified the following six technologies as most likely to enhance or
degrade US national power out to 2025:
Biogerontechnology
Energy Storage Materials
Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals
Clean Coal Technologies
Service Robotics
The Internet of Things.
Scope Note:
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PROCESS FOR SELECTION OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Generate Ideas ( wiki )
Screen Disruptive
Technologies
according to NIC-
criteria
Select Most Critical
Form Clusters
Review of SRIC-BI knowledge
base
Describe Technologies
and Disruptions
Create Disruptive
Technology Profiles
Step 4:
Step 2:
Step 3:
Step 1:
Step 5:
Step 6:
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Six civil technologies offer the potential to enhance or degrade US power
over the next fifteen years according to National Intelligence Council
(NIC) sponsored contractor research. These include biogerontechnology,
1
energy storage technology, biofuels and bio-based chemical technology,
clean coal technology, service robotic technology, and information
technology devoted to increased connectivity of people and things.
Biogerontechnology offers the means to accomplish control over and
improvement in the human condition, and promises improvements in
lifespan. The advancement of the science and technology underlying the
biological aging process has the potential to not only extend the average
natural lifespan, but also to simultaneously postpone many if not all of the
costly and disabling conditions that humans experience in later life, thereby
creating a longevity dividend that will be economic, social and medical in
nature.
• The disruptive potential comes in the form of new treatment modalities,
shifts in the cost, and resulting allocation and use of health care
resources.
• Nations will be challenged as a result of changing demographic
structures, new psychologies, activity patterns of aging yet healthy
citizens, and the resulting requirement to formulate new national
economic and social policies.
Energy Storage technologies have the potential to disrupt the way energy is
stored and distributed for use in transportation and portable devices.
These technologies include battery materials, ultracapacitors, and hydrogen
storage materials (particularly for fuel cells). Within these components both
synergy and competitive tension exists.
• The biggest level of disruption that could occur, both in economic
terms and in terms of global socio-economic structure, would be the
potential for one of these technologies (or a combination) to lead to a
paradigm shift away from fossil fuels.
Biofuels and bio-based chemicals production technologies have the only
potential near-term capability to provide alternatives to conventional
gasoline and diesel-fuel and petrochemical feedstocks. Crop-based biofuels
are already in wide use, work in today’s vehicles, and require no major
investments in infrastructure for their use. Biofuels also help to address
global-warming concerns by reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
from vehicles. The rate of technology advancement will be strongly
influenced by the regulatory environment and the need to address feedstock
constraints and reduce costs.
1
Biogerontechnology is technology related to the biological aging processes.
Executive Summary:
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• The United States and a growing number of other countries have already
begun a transition toward biofuels that could ultimately have far-reaching
impacts on world energy markets. A large-scale move to energy-
efficient biofuels could increase US energy security and ease
international competition for world oil supplies and reserves.
• Conversely, if the United States does not develop a strong bio-based
economy, the country would become increasingly dependent upon less-
than-friendly countries for a critical energy resource.
Clean coal technologies and an array of related technologies offer the
potential to improve electrical generation efficiency, lower emissions of
harmful pollutants, and provide fuels and chemical feedstocks from
available coal resources. The development of clean coal technologies is
gaining momentum in coal rich nations, which include major economic and
scientific powers, but it is not certain to succeed.
• Failure to successfully develop clean coal technology in an
environment where there is high expectation of success will result in
environmental damage with major adverse economic impacts.
• Conversely, a successful accelerated and rapid deployment of clean coal
technology could pose a major challenge to other (predominantly oil)
energy markets; the resulting geopolitical instability could also be a
major challenge to US interests.
Robots have the potential to replace humans in a variety of applications
with far-reaching implications. Robotics and enabling technologies have
already advanced to the stage where single-application robots and related
systems (including autonomous vehicles) are being implemented in a wide
range of civil and defense applications. Although a great deal of
development is still required in terms of intelligence for robots, many of the
building blocks for potentially disruptive robot systems are either already in
place, or will be by 2025, including hardware (e.g. sensors, actuators, and
power systems) and software (e.g. robot platforms).
• The use of unmanned systems for terrorist activities could emerge
because the availability of commercial civil robot platforms will increase
significantly.
• Unmanned military systems with a much greater level of autonomy and
closely related/synergistic technologies (e.g. human augmentation
systems) could enhance the performance of soldiers.
• The development and implementation of robots for elder-care
applications, and the development of human-augmentation
technologies, mean that robots could be working alongside humans in
looking after and rehabilitating people. A change in domestic and
social responsibilities and a change in domestic employment
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requirements could adversely affect lower income service-oriented
workers.
By 2025 Internet nodes may reside in everyday things—food packages,
furniture, paper documents, and more. Today’s developments point to
future opportunities and risks that will arise when people can remotely
control, locate, and monitor even the most mundane devices and articles.
Popular demand combined with technology advances could drive widespread
diffusion of an Internet of Things (IoT) that could, like the present Internet,
contribute invaluably to economic development and military capability.
• Streamlining—or revolutionizing—supply chains and logistics could
slash costs, increase efficiencies, and reduce dependence on human
labor. Ability to fuse sensor data from many distributed objects could
deter crime and asymmetric warfare. Ubiquitous positioning technology
could locate missing and stolen goods.
• However, to the extent that everyday objects become information-
security risks, the IoT could distribute those risks far more widely than
the Internet has to date.
• Massively parallel sensor fusion may undermine social cohesion if it
proves to be fundamentally incompatible with Fourth-Amendment
guarantees against unreasonable search.
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Contents
Scope Note i
Executive Summary iii
Discussion 1
Biogerontechnology 1
Energy Storage Materials 6
Biofuels and Bio Based Chemicals 11
Clean Coal Technologies 16
Service Robotics 22
The Internet of Things 27
Abbreviations 32
Appendices
2
APPENDIX A: Biogerontechnology (Background)
APPENDIX B: Energy Storage Materials (Background)
APPENDIX C: Biofuels and Bio Based Chemicals (Background)
APPENDIX D: Clean Coal Technologies (Background)
APPENDIX E: Service Robotics (Background)
APPENDIX F: The Internet of Things (Background)
2
Appendices are available on the accompanying compact disc (CD).
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Discussion
Biogerontechnology
Why is Biogerontechnology Potentially Disruptive?
Since the start the twentieth century, when the average natural lifespan in the United States was 47
years of age, gains in life expectancy have been impressive thanks to a combination of medical
interventions, lifestyle choices, and behavior modifications. In 2005, the average human life
expectancy in the United States was 78 years, with life expectancy for women approximately five
years longer than for men. The US Census Bureau estimates that life expectancy will increase by
another six years by 2050. Biogerontechnology, which offers the means to accomplish control over
and improvement in the human condition, promises even greater longevity gains. The advancement
of the science and technology underlying the biological aging process has the potential to not only
extend the average natural lifespan forecasts but also to simultaneously postpone many if not all of
the costly and disabling conditions that humans experience in later life, thereby creating a longevity
dividend that will be economic, social and medical in nature. The disruptive potential will also
come in the form of new treatment modalities, and shifts in the cost, allocation and use of health
care resources. Nations will be challenged as a result of the changing demographic structures and
new psychologies, behaviors and activity patterns of aging yet healthy citizens and the concomitant
need to formulate new national economic and social policies.
Potential Impacts of Biogerontechnology on US National Power
Geopolitical: Biogerontechnology will influence policy making and business decisions related to
international finance and macroeconomics which will lead to changes in global
investment cycles as well as investment flows and economic ties between nations.
With health care spending accounting for 16% of GDP in the United States (closer to
9% in other OECD countries), the opportunity to reduce that share of spending
through biogerontechnology will allow the US government to transfer resources to
other areas of the economy and prioritize capital investments that could change the
course of national economic development. The same goes for many other countries.
Nation states may also see a healthy aging population as a labor resource that can be
leveraged to assure economic competitiveness in global markets. An aging and
healthy population in the United States that remains economically productive can
therefore contribute towards national economic output and productivity. The ability
to maintain a stable stock of domestic labor may also affect the competitive dynamics
and economics of global labor markets and traditional migration patterns.
Economic: If breakthroughs enabled through biogerontechnology were to extend lifespan and
compress morbidity, the costly life stage of frailty and disability that is so common
with today’s aging populations could be postponed and experienced during a shorter
duration of time before death. This, together with a delay in the age at which people
may enter age-entitlement and public health care programs, would create significant
economic savings for the US system. The organization, practice, financing and
delivery of health care could change dramatically in the United States as well as many
other industrialized countries. Biogerontechnology, however, is likely to displace
some of the more conventional gerontology approaches to caring for and providing
for the elderly. As a result, labor markets might be affected as demand for health
services declines. Labor markets could also be affected by the fact older people may
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seek to remain employed longer. As a global business leader, the US may be at the
forefront of innovation and new opportunities in businesses, such as financial
products and services that will seek to capitalize on the longevity boom and risk
factor.
Military: Some technologies inherent in the extension of lifespan and healthspan could find
important applications in a military context primarily those implicated in delaying the
onset of biological aging. This would lead to knowledge retention among older
personnel as they seek to delay retirement from service. The opportunity to prevent
the onset of certain debilitating diseases could lead to significant savings to the
military’s health system, which would allow resources to be deployed to other
strategic areas that are more likely to result in aiding the military might of the United
States.
Cultural: Inequitable market access to biogerontechnologies that offer life-enhancing benefits
may create different life expectancy cohorts according to race, income,
socioeconomic status, or geography, for example, in the United States.
Biogerontechnology could also lead to intergenerational conflicts between younger
and older cohorts and lead to social unrest as investment and employment cycles are
disrupted and affect economic values associated with labor and other capital. New
cultural norms may be established due to changing psychology and behaviors among
older people, which could also lead to dramatic lifestyle changes. Uncertainties may
emerge as lifestyles converge with and influence technology and market trends in
other business sectors as diverse as energy, communications, and finance. Lifestyle
behaviors may also lead to the emergence of new health profiles for populations and
disease threats and health risks may change as unexpected behaviors emerge due to
biogerontechnology.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
The key uncertainties in the biogerontechnology field tend to fall along two major axes:
• The science-and-technology–commercialization continuum
• The formulation of global policy and funding support levels.
The key uncertainty along the science-and-technology–commercialization continuum is the extent
to which advances in scientific knowledge and technical capabilities occur and the degree of the
resulting technical risks and knowledge gaps). Nations will either move toward a more complete
level of understanding and enhanced capabilities or toward an environment of many weak links and
unorthodox risks that limit progress towards market applications.
The global policy and funding environment will be strongly influenced by the degree and rate of
progress in scientific and technical capability. The level of public interest and support for longevity
science as well as government’s ability to balance that with commercial interests will also temper
the policy and funding environment.
On the basis of the two axes of uncertainty, four distinct scenarios seem plausible: one that is
unruly and negative (“Rebel Science”), one that is conservative, having some breakthroughs but
that fall short of the full potential of the technology (“Animal Magic”), and two that have strong
levels of public support but with varying degrees of scientific and technology capabilities (“Dorian
Gray” and “Forever Young”). We describe each of the scenarios briefly and detail the opportunities
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and threats in the two scenarios that highlight the extremes in possibilities for how the future could
play out until 2025.
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Animal Magic
In “Animal Magic” the promise of biogerontechnology is ushered in but only in research involving
animal models. Scientists are in disagreement as to the exact mechanisms for how these research
results could be reproduced in humans. Despite this disagreement and the fact that there has been
no reproducibility of the animal research results in any human studies, researchers remain
emboldened that the critical breakthrough in humans is near. Policy makers and the public are
growing increasingly skeptical the longer the impasse continues. Other fields of biomedical
research that seek to affect aging and the decline in health have borne many more breakthroughs in
clinical potential, and gain greater attention and interest from the public and policy makers.
Scenario 2: Dorian Gray
In “Dorian Gray” all is good on the public face of science but less so within the research field on
account of limited progress in advancing biogerontechnology. Both the public and policy makers
want to believe in a dream and urge scientists to forge ahead. But scientists feel pressured to take
risks and make unorthodox decisions in their research, which leads to some risky research and
unexpected outcomes. Spin sells the public and policy makers a sense of progress. The US and
other governments continue to pour significant amounts of funding into research but with little to
show for it. Yet a sense of optimism in the future remains. Governments support and the public
pursues interim strategies, such as caloric restriction, to slow down aging while awaiting
breakthroughs in biogerontechnology.
Scenario 3: Rebel Science
In “Rebel Science” biogerontechnology fails to realize its full potential and advance to a level that
scientists had once anticipated. Scientists, however, remain confident that it is only a matter of time
before the critical breakthroughs, which push biogerontechnology to the next level, emerge. The
global policy and funding environment remains unconvinced and is cool to heed calls from
scientists for further funding. Scientists seek to compensate for the lack of funding from public
Table 1
BIOGERONTECHNOLOGY: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Science and Technology Commercialization Continuum
Weak Links and Risks New Science World
Limited Scientific and
Technical Rationale
Rebel Science Animal Magic
Global Policy and
Funding
Strong Support
And Public Demand
Dorian Gray Forever Young
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sources through tapping wealthy individuals and technology philanthropists. But desperation and a
lack of accountability and formal oversight forces researchers into some unorthodox situations. The
US government is forced to introduce tough legislation governing research activities, which drives
much of the ongoing research underground or offshore. The biomedical industry sees little
incentive to invest heavily in the field because of the growing restrictions. Experimentation on
humans is unregulated, fails to follow standard ethical guidelines, and clinical applications that
emerge often go unreported such that any knowledge learned is not shared and used to advance
knowledge in the field.
• Potential opportunities. Governance issues loom large. The United States is well positioned to
assume a leadership role in the international science and technology community to establish
guidelines and frameworks governing ethical practices in biogerontechnological research.
Domestically, the United States could pursue and prioritize or earmark available funding for
alternative areas of biomedical research that offer the greatest opportunity to delay the onset and
impact of diseases associated with aging.
• Potential threats. The United States is alarmed by the degree to which international markets and
scientific research remain unregulated. Private money and venture philanthropy pose a
significant challenge to the regulated practice of biogerontechnology research and adherence to
the ethics of biomedical research. Despite international efforts to restrict or ban research
activities, these research initiatives are always sure of finding a safe haven where authorities are
willing to turn a blind eye.
Scenario 4: Forever Young
In “Forever Young” the breakthroughs that scientists envisioned for treating aging as a medical
condition have come to pass. The US academic biomedical research community benefits greatly
from the research and innovation and the resulting technology transfer to the private sector results
in considerable entrepreneurial activity that drives a new era of technology-led economic activity to
boost national economic growth. Governments talk of the longevity dividend that will stem from
the clinical applications and convene international meetings to discuss the challenges in applying
and managing biogerontechnology in society in a controlled and responsible manner. The
implications of advances in biogerontechnology will extend beyond medicine and health care. The
benefits of healthier and more active lifespans will allow people to remain in the labor force and
work longer and to enjoy more active lifestyles. As a result, consumer spending and savings
patterns adjust to reflect changing lifestyle interests. Actuaries would need to make ongoing
upward adjustments to reflect expanding lifespans. The implications of longevity risk would start
to feed into policy making and business decisions as finance and economic strategies adjust
accordingly. Government and private pensions would need to guarantee sufficient resources to
manage the costs of extended life spans, while retirement assets would see a more gradual drawing
down as aging investors live longer. There is a sense of optimism, hope, and possibility in many
global societies that permeates beyond the field of biogerontechnology and feeds into other areas of
the economy and society.
• Potential opportunities. The uptick in investment levels in commercialization activities around
biogerontechnology research pushes the US government into action. Key policy initiatives deal
with legal frameworks for intellectual property protection, regulatory frameworks governing
human clinical safety and evaluation, and consumer education campaigns regarding the
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responsible use of biogerontechnology. US companies are quick to make the strategic
investments in enabling technologies and market infrastructures.
• Potential threats. This scenario could have very significant social and political impacts for
which many policy makers are unprepared. For example, the United States is simply unprepared
for the ideological and cultural backlash against biogerontechnology, which leads to many
tensions and divisions within society. The United States and other countries are left to grapple
with the economic burden that results from unintended consequences of covering payment for
access to medical technologies that guarantee a longer-living and healthier life, and resort to
creating policies that ration or restrict access to biogerontechnologies on the basis of an
individual’s willingness to pay.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward biogerontechnology development, include:
• Scientific evidence that both confirms and disconfirms the current aging theories,
• Global public research funding levels and trends for biogerontechnology research,
• The establishment of non-US centers of biogerontechnology research excellence,
• Successful early models for scientific research and technology commercialization,
• The size and nature of biogerontechnology investments worldwide,
• Position statements about the ethics and practices of biogerontechnology research,
• Consistency in regulatory frameworks governing research and commercialization, and
• The influence of scientific research and applications on public opinion.
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Energy Storage Materials
Why Are Energy Storage Materials Potentially Disruptive?
The term Energy Storage Materials encompasses a wide range of materials and techniques for
storing energy, each with varying levels of potential disruption. This profile focuses on three such
energy storage materials groups?battery materials, ultracapacitors and hydrogen storage materials
(particularly for fuel cells). They have in common the potential to disrupt the way energy is stored
and distributed in two main industry sectors, transportation and portable devices. Within these
energy storage materials groups, both synergy and competitive tension exists. In some
manifestations of their potential disruptions the technologies will work in parallel; in others they
will compete with each other.
The biggest level of disruption that could occur, both in economic terms and in terms of global
socio-economic structure, would be the potential for one of these technologies (or a combination) to
lead to a paradigm shift away from fossil fuels. In this context, one potential scenario is based on a
move to a hydrogen economy. Such a move will largely depend on the ability to generate hydrogen
from a non-petroleum source. It might also be important for hydrogen generated from natural gas
or coal. Such a move will be very dramatic if the source of the hydrogen is water that has been split
by a non-fossil source of electricity, including nuclear, solar, wind, or other alternatives.
Potential Impacts of Energy Storage Materials on US National Power
Depending on the path of the future scenario, energy storage materials could have a substantial
impact on the four elements of national power:
Geopolitical: Energy storage materials could have a profound impact on the geopolitical balance of
power. Some forecasters predict that oil has already or soon will reach its production
peak, just as many countries, such as China and India, are beginning to expand their
economies and place more demand on oil resources. Cheap reliable sources of
alternative energy storage could reduce the demand for oil, particularly for
transportation, though other primary sources of energy (specifically, electricity) will
be necessary to supply the energy to recharge batteries, provide the charge for
ultracapacitors, or generate hydrogen. Reduced oil demand would insulate the United
States from its dependency on foreign sources of oil. On the hand, nations reliant on
petroleum as a major source of revenue would find that they would have to transition
their economies, or risk a substantial reduction in living standards. Such a situation
could destabilize some already fragile regions.
Economic: A transition to a hydrogen economy, and to greater use of other energy storage
materials, would provide a large opportunity in the production of fuel cells and fuel
cell vehicles, hydrogen generation and storage infrastructure, advanced batteries and
ultracapacitor production and materials. From a transportation perspective, gasoline
retailers would have to transition their infrastructure to provide onsite generation and
storage of hydrogen, creating a demand for local high-voltage electricity substations.
Any move away from hybrids to full electric vehicles would be detrimental to
manufacturers of internal combustion engines. Assuming these new sources of
power are as cheap to the US end user (be they auto manufacturers or consumers),
then the transition should be economically positive at a national level, due to the
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reduction in demand for overseas oil (and assuming increased electricity requirements
are from indigenous sources).
Military: The military has a substantial demand for offsite and portable power. Increases in
energy density anticipated through this disruptive technology would provide greater
autonomy of operation for field devices, and might enable remote sensors to have a
greater lifetime. The high bursts of power provided by ultracapacitors can provide
new weapon capabilities.
Cultural: Assuming an ample supply of energy, social cohesion is little impacted by the precise
type of energy source. That situation is changing at the fringes as some small
numbers of consumers choose to purchase higher cost green energy supplies, and
certainly a transition to any new energy technology that would have less
environmental impact would be in tune with consumer concerns. A move to a
hydrogen economy could impact social cohesion as a result of any positive economic
benefit that a reduced reliance on oil provided, in the form of new jobs. Ultimately,
the largest impact on social cohesion would accrue if a hydrogen economy (supported
by other forms of primary electricity generation) was able to mitigate against the
impact of a future world with dwindling oil reserves.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
The key uncertainties in the energy storage materials technology field tend to fall along two major
axes:
• Developments in basic materials science.
• Choices in terms of global national energy policy.
The key uncertainty in materials science is the extent to which progress is made in a wide variety of
materials required for new advanced batteries, ultracapacitors and for efficiently storing hydrogen.
The axis for global national energy policy reflects the choices (and needs) to push alternative fuels,
or to continue and further develop fossil fuels.
On the basis of the two axes of uncertainty, four distinct scenarios seem plausible, including one
that is dark and negative (“Running on Empty”), one that is conservative, having small technology
breakthroughs (“Competitive Conservatism”), and two that have different types of huge technology
breakthroughs (“Super Clean” and “Hydrogen Economy”). We describe each of these scenarios
briefly and detail the opportunities and threats in the two scenarios that reflect similar energy
policies but at the extremes of technological progress.
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Table 2
ENERGY STORAGE MATERIALS: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Energy Storage Materials Science Development
Evolution Revolution
Extension of Fossil Fuel
Sources
Running on Empty Super Clean
Global National Energy
Policy Choices
Widespread Political
Choice to Switch to
Alternatives
Competitive Conservation Hydrogen Economy
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Running on Empty
In “Running on Empty” no breakthroughs occur in solving fundamental problems in energy
technologies. Globally, countries are forced to rely on fossil fuels and either elect not to install
large amounts of nuclear power or fail to do so fast enough. At some point, depending on the
balance between dwindling reserves and expansion, particularly in Asia, economies will begin to
stagnate as the price of oil increases. The population declines as it ages, countries periodically go
to war over energy resources, and conservation is forced on consumers by lack of availability.
Scenario 2: Super Clean
In “Super Clean” technological breakthroughs in clean coal, clean oil, clean oil sands, carbon
sequestration, and biofuels that do not compete with agriculture and food production result in a
high-growth global economy that continues to be fueled by fossil fuels for at least 200 years.
Switching to a hydrogen economy is not necessary and none of the hydrogen generation and storage
technologies are required. Battery and ultracapacitor energy storage technologies are sufficient and
part of the clean fossil fuel economy, transferring and storing energy efficiently from power-
generating units to transportation and portable devices. Energy is available for environmental clean
up, water purification, and infrastructure repair.
Scenario 3: Competitive Conservation
In “Competitive Conservation” lots of small, evolutionary advances in technology enable a
sustainable and active economy, based on conservation of energy. Governments around the world
compete with each other to make enlightened choices in policy to reduce waste of energy (such as
by regulation, promoting low-energy consumption in lighting, green buildings, agriculture, personal
transportation, and IT infrastructure) creating economic activity in the changeover. Imports of
energy-guzzling products are banned, forcing reluctant countries to switch also—or lose
competitiveness. Solar energy and wind power are marginally efficient and installed everywhere,
creating millions of new jobs in installation and services around the world. Population growth
levels off to sustainable levels, declining in some countries. People become conscious of their
carbon footprint and seek to conserve energy. New businesses form around conservation.
Hydrogen storage devices do not achieve the DOE goals, but are sufficient (4 or 5 % by weight) for
hydrogen generated by solar and wind power to be stored in large, central facilities for end uses
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such as fleet vehicles and backup power for telecommunications and computer data centers.
Energy storage technologies see marginal improvements and are able to ease the energy demand on
all energy-consuming products in small ways that add up to enough to be meaningful. Portable
electronic devices, wearables, and implants are partially charged by energy harvesting,
ultracapacitors, and improved batteries.
• Potential opportunities. The United States already leads in many or most of these
“conservation” technologies and has a business economy that can adjust rapidly. In terms of
application, the European Union is quickly moving in this direction, faster than the United States
is, but US activities can easily catch up and regain the initiative. Opportunities lie in creating the
leading-edge technologies and working with China, India, and Russia to help them install US
energy conservation technologies that allow them to sustain growth and to head off potential
future geo-political conflict. US industry gains financially from this leadership and US
leadership and prestige is maintained worldwide.
• Potential threats. Failure of US policymaking could leave the United States at a severe
disadvantage in this scenario. The EU has the policy lead now and is gaining jobs and
experience in these conservation technologies, which could carry over into leadership in selling
products and services to the rapidly developing countries in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin
America. Furthermore, as the United States fails to adapt regulatory and economic policies to
encourage conservation, it remains dependent on expensive forms of energy, included imported
oil and puts US companies at an economic disadvantage from a cost perspective. More
companies will seek to move to low-energy-cost countries, leaving the United States behind.
Although this scenario is relatively peaceful, in terms of global conflict, loss of US prestige and
economic power will lead to internal and external conflicts and bickering. The United States
could become the “Argentina of the 21
st
Century,” declining relatively quickly from its world top
spot in per-capital GDP (as Argentina was in 1905) to a “former wealthy nation” status.
Scenario 4: Hydrogen Economy
In “Hydrogen Economy” big breakthroughs occur in cheap hydrogen generation, cheap,
lightweight, and dense hydrogen storage, and fast and easy hydrogen dispensing technologies.
Solar, wind, clean fossil fuel, biofuel, and even nuclear technologies could be a part of the
hydrogen-generation infrastructure. Fuel cell transportation (cars, trains, ships, planes, and niche
applications, including lift trucks and robots), infrastructure backup power, and fuel cell-powered
portable electronic devices abound globally. Energy is a virtually infinite resource, available to any
country, leading to an explosion of devices, solving of global water shortage problems,
improvements in health in developing countries, an increase in global travel, and an expansion of
space exploration programs.
• Potential opportunities. The United States already is a leader in many of the hydrogen storage
technologies and could continue to be the source of technological breakthroughs. Even where it
is not the first to gain a breakthrough, US industry and individuals will gain from the new
technologies if a rapid build-out of the hydrogen infrastructure takes place, coupled with
environmental regulation and incentives that help industry and individuals to adopt new
products.
• Potential threats. European countries are ahead in much of the hydrogen infrastructure
prototype programs and up to speed in energy storage technologies. Canada and other countries
are also pushing hard on fuel cells and alternative hydrogen-generation technologies. They
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could gain advantage as breakthroughs occur in introducing those technologies into the fast-
growth BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries, leaving the United States at an economic
disadvantage.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward energy storage materials development, include:
• The natural availability and the price of oil. Gradual declines in availability and increases in
prices would increase the decisions to support alternatives; new giant field discoveries might
delay policy decisions to support alternatives,
• Improvements in performance and cost of materials relevant to ultracapacitors, batteries and
hydrogen storage,
• Energy technology choices in BRIC and the European Union. Look for competition for
petroleum, reliance on coal, decision to go nuclear, successful investments to compete in
alternatives, especially solar, wind, and biofuels,
• Global sales volumes of portable electronic devices, including cell phones, PDAs, music
players, and wearable medical devices,
• Trials, production, and sales volumes of hybrids, fuel cell vehicles and ultracapacitor-powered
vehicles,
• Investment and development of nuclear energy and alternative energy technologies, particularly
solar, wind, and biofuels, and
• Investment in energy storage materials and commercial successes by type of material.
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Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals
Why are Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals Potentially Disruptive?
US Department of Energy (DOE) projections indicate that world petroleum demand is set to
increase by 42% between 2004 and 2030, primarily in the transportation sector. Oil-importing
regions—including the United States, Europe, Japan, and China—are becoming increasingly
dependent upon crude-oil supplies from key OPEC countries, but the future reliability of these
supplies is uncertain. Biofuels and bio-based chemicals production technologies represent the only
near-term alternatives to conventional gasoline, diesel-fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks. Crop-
based biofuels are already in wide use, work in today’s vehicles, and require no major investments
in infrastructure for their use (unlike alternatives such as hydrogen). Biofuels also help to address
global-warming concerns by reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from vehicles (on a fuel
life-cycle basis). The United States and a growing number of other countries have already begun a
transition toward biofuels that could ultimately have far-reaching impacts on world energy markets.
Success will depend on the development of new bio-based technologies that can efficiently convert
nonfood biomass resources to fuels and chemical products on a very large scale.
Potential Impacts of Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals on US National Power
Geopolitical: A large-scale move to energy-efficient biofuels could increase US energy security and
ease international competition for world oil supplies and reserves. Conversely, if the
United States does not develop a strong bio-based economy, the country would
become increasingly dependent upon less-than-friendly OPEC countries for a critical
energy resource. The need for a transition could become essential before 2025.
Many analysts believe that worldwide production of conventional crude oil will reach
a peak in this time frame, which could precipitate a major oil crisis and cause oil
prices to reach $100 per barrel or higher. A broader move to biofuels may also be
geopolitically essential for governments to satisfy international and national
commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Military: The development of a significant biofuels and bio-based chemicals economy in the
United States could reduce the likelihood of US involvement in future military
conflicts related to access to dwindling world-oil supplies. The military itself may
increasingly rely on future biofuels that are custom designed for higher performance
than today’s military fuels.
Economic: Global markets for biofuels are already growing rapidly in many countries. Global
manufacturing and sales reached $20.5 billion in 2006 and are projected to grow to
$80 billion by 2016. Biofuels can also provide an economic hedge against higher oil
prices as well as increase certainty of supply (especially for production from domestic
biomass resources) in the event of future oil-supply disruptions. Reducing oil
imports would help improve the US trade balance. It could become extremely
important for the United States to lead in biofuels technologies in the event that an oil
crisis occurs related to peak oil production or other factors. An oil-supply crisis
would likely force a rapid transition to alternative energy sources, and if the United
States fails to develop a significant bio-based economy, it could fall behind other
regions of the world economically. A risk is that the United States could make a huge
investment in biofuels but fail to address potentially cheaper solutions to reduce
petroleum use, such as requiring vehicles with significantly higher fuel efficiency.
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Cultural: A major commitment to biofuels could improve social cohesiveness and be a source
of national pride if, for example, the impacts of global warming become serious. A
strong bio-based economy could also provide significant rural economic-development
opportunities, especially if a broad base of citizens helps to make the new economy a
reality. On the downside, if increasing demand for agricultural biomass to make
biofuels results in significantly higher food prices or negatively affects resources such
as land and water supplies and land ownership, a major move to biofuels could
increase social discontent.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
Key uncertainties that relate to biofuels technology and implementation tend to fall along two major
axes:
• The policy and funding environment
• The rate of technology advancement for enhanced capabilities and lower biofuels costs.
The key uncertainty in the policy and regulatory environment is the degree of commitment to
promote a biofuels economy, which will be strongly influenced by the level of concern about issues
such as energy security, global warming, and crude-oil prices.
The rate of technology advancement will be strongly influenced by the regulatory environment and
the need to address feedstock constraints and reduce costs.
Four scenarios are possible on the basis of those axes. We concentrate on the two extreme
scenarios—”Stalled” and “Biofuels in the Fast Lane”—that highlight the spectrum of possibilities
for how the future could play out through the year 2025. These are disruptive in different ways and
we describe these scenarios in some detail and identify the opportunities and threats for each. We
briefly describe the other two scenarios, “Supported Growth” and “Economic Biofuels,” which
have more intermediate impacts.
Table 3
BIOFUELS AND BIO-BASED CHEMICALS: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Rate of Technology Advancement
Incremental Rapid
Lack of Support Stalled Economic Biofuels
Policy and
Funding
Strong Commitment Supported Growth Biofuels in the Fast Lane
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Supported Growth
In “Supported Growth” advances in biofuels technology have been slow and most production still
relies on relatively expensive food crops for feedstock. Some biofuels markets have seen
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significant growth, however, where governments have continued to mandate their use and provide
subsidies to help make biofuels cost-competitive with conventional fossil fuels. A number of
industrialized and developing countries that have the economic and/or land resources to make a
major dent in dependence on imported crude oil have been willing to make a large public
commitment to biofuels.
Scenario 2: Economic Biofuels
In “Economic Biofuels” the private sector is the main driver of a steadily growing biofuels sector.
Technology breakthroughs have led to the manufacture of large-scale second- and third-generation
biofuels, such as those based on high-growth algae, that are increasingly cost-competitive. Many
governments nurtured the early growth but gradually cut biofuels subsidies as markets became self-
sustaining. The largest biofuels markets emerge in areas with ready access to biomass resources
from wastes and energy crops optimized for biofuels production.
Scenario 3: Stalled
In “Stalled” the vision of a vibrant biofuels economy does not materialize. The United States and
some other governments decide that large biofuels subsidies are not the best use of public monies
and begin to scale back ambitious biofuels targets. Investment tax credits for blending biofuels into
gasoline and diesel at low concentrations remain in place, supported by vociferous corn- and soy-
grower lobbies. But the US government quietly drops ambitious policy targets for the large-scale
use of biofuels to replace gasoline. Crude-oil prices remain relatively high—in the $50-to-$75-per-
barrel range—but environmentally conscious consumers prefer to purchase high fuel-efficiency
hybrid and electric vehicles rather than flex-fuel vehicles—especially because the availability of E-
85 fueling stations remains quite limited. Although governments worldwide (including the US
government) agree to take real action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the use of biofuels is not
a preferred path. Instead, the United States focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the
electricity-generation sector (through cleaner coal technologies and more nuclear power) and
mandates higher efficiency standards for vehicles, buildings, and appliances. Much of the
disenchantment with biofuels is that, despite significant public and private R&D funding through
the early 2010s, second-generation technologies do not advance sufficiently to make cellulosic
ethanol and other new biofuels and bio-based chemicals close to being cost competitive with
petroleum-based fuels. Reliance on crop-based biofuels has led to sustained higher prices for a
range of food products, resulting in a backlash against biofuels by the general public. By 2025,
biofuels represent just 5% of the US transportation fuel pool, only slightly more than the 2% level
in 2006.
• Potential opportunities. The United States could continue R&D to improve biomass feedstocks
and biofuels with no need to take on the risk of rushing new technologies into production before
they are viable. The United States could take a more market-based approach to energy issues
and still improve its international reputation by taking alternative actions to address global
warming. To supplement limited food crop availability for biofuels, the United States could
import lower-cost biofuels from countries such as Brazil and new suppliers.
• Potential threats. The United States could fall behind other regions, notably the European
Union, which is likely to maintain a stronger commitment to developing advanced biofuels, and
China, which needs advanced biofuels to help meet rapidly increasing demand for
transportation fuels. The United States would have less room to maneuver to address periodic
crude-oil–supply disruptions and future upward trends in oil prices, as supplies of
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nonconventional energy supplies eventually dwindle. This would be especially true if US
vehicle-efficiency standards are not aggressive enough. The United States would remain
dependent upon less-than-friendly OPEC oil-producing countries for key energy supplies.
Scenario 4: Biofuels in the Fast Lane
In “Biofuels in the Fast Lane” the US government confronts an increasingly energy-constrained
world that requires new, cleaner, safer, and more secure energy solutions. As conventional crude-
oil production declines, prices spike to $100/barrel and even higher. At the same time, physical
impacts of global warming—especially more severe weather patterns and collapsing fish
populations—demand drastic steps to reduce GHG emissions. Supported by public opinion, the US
government commits to a “Brazil model” of widespread biofuel use and helps to fund new
commercial-scale plants and a flexible fuel infrastructure. By 2020, biorefineries processing
lignocellulosic waste feedstocks are becoming common throughout the country. Technology
breakthroughs have significantly lowered the cost of converting agricultural wastes, and cellulosic
ethanol is now very cost competitive with high-priced conventional gasoline. Ethanol-fueled hybrid
vehicles are in great demand. Newer synthetic “designer fuels” offer even higher performance and
are in wide use in jet-fuel blends. Commodity and specialty chemicals and bioplastics also
increasingly are derived from renewable feedstocks, and producers benefit from more energy-
efficient manufacturing and environmentally friendlier products. By 2025, US petroleum fuel
demand is more than 35 percent below 2007 levels, surpassing the ambitious government goal set
in 2007 to displace 30 percent of gasoline use with biofuels by 2030.
• Potential opportunities. The United States has the opportunity to take the lead in developing
low-net-carbon advanced biotechnologies and other processes to produce second- and third-
generation biofuels and bio-based chemicals. In spite of oil price shocks and tight supplies, the
US economy could benefit from increasing oil independence and increasing entrepreneurial
activity, especially in rural areas. The United States could also gain political influence by
working cooperatively with countries such as China that are also making a major transition
away from petroleum-based fuels. New synthetic fuels with improved performance could be
useful for the military.
• Potential threats. The United States may not be able to move fast enough to enable a major
biofuels economy fully by 2025. A new oil crisis could cause a severe economic recession and
cash-strapped governments and citizens may not be able to afford the new plant capacity,
infrastructure upgrades, and vehicles necessary to enable high-concentration cellulosic-ethanol
fuels. With a major push to produce biofuels, the US government and US oil companies may
lose leverage to obtain necessary oil supplies from OPEC countries, at the expense of countries
such as China and India.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward biofuels and bio-based chemicals technology, include:
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• The timing and nature of biofuels promotion policies in the United States and other regions (e.g.
quotas, subsidies, specific support for domestic or low-emission fuels),
• The timing and nature of global warming policies in the United States and internationally (e.g.
carbon taxes, post-Kyoto Protocol carbon reduction agreements),
• The level of continuing R&D support from the Department of Energy and Department of
Agriculture for the development and commercialization of advanced biofuels technologies
• Crude oil prices and supply,
• Cost and efficiency improvements in biofuels conversion processes,
• The influence of food-versus fuel debates and public opinion on the availability of feedstocks
such as corn and the spread of biofuels (especially in the near term),
• Improvements in feedstock yield and supply resulting from breeding and genetic modification
of plants for very high growth or high biofuels yields,
• Fuel efficiency gains in vehicles and the spread of alternative vehicle technologies such as
hybrid electric, electric, and fuel cell vehicles,
• Development of an E85 ethanol fuel infrastructure (fueling stations and flex-fuel vehicles) to
enable widespread use of high-ethanol-concentration fuels, and
• International trade in biofuels from low-cost suppliers in Brazil, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia,
and other locations.
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Clean Coal Technologies
Why is Clean Coal Technology Potentially Disruptive?
Clean coal technologies would permit coal to function in a carbon constrained regulatory
environment. The development of clean coal technologies is gaining momentum in coal rich
nations, which include major economic and scientific powers, but it is not certain to succeed.
At least two sets of circumstances could indicate that either the development or the failure to
develop clean coal technology would be disruptive to US interests. If the United States—and the
world in general—has a high expectation that clean coal technology will allow the continued or
expanded use of coal as an energy source and this technology cannot be matured, the resulting
environmental and economic impact could be a major challenge to US interests. Conversely, a
successful accelerated and rapid deployment of clean coal technology could pose a major challenge
to other (predominately oil) energy markets; the resulting geopolitical instability could also be a
major challenge to US interests.
The Energy Information Administration expects world energy demand to rise 57% between 2004
and 2030. Nations are looking toward tightening energy supplies amid growing concerns about the
potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change because of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions. Three of the largest and fastest-growing energy consumers, the United States,
China, and India, along with Russia possess the four largest recoverable coal reserves, representing
67% of known global reserves. Expanded coal production could extend nonrenewable carbon-
based energy systems for one or even two centuries. Coal also emits more carbon dioxide (and
other pollutants) per unit energy recovered than do other fossil fuels like oil or natural gas, making
coal one of the least environment-friendly energy options today. The technical or commercial
success of technologies that enable these coal reserves to remain a viable source of energy while
becoming more environmentally friendly may be very desirable to the United States, but success is
by no means certain. The possible opportunities afforded by having clean coal technologies make a
US failure to develop this technology disruptive to US interests
3
.
Clean coal technologies include an array of related technologies to improve efficiency, lower
emissions of harmful pollutants, and provide fuels and chemical feedstocks from available
resources. The most disruptive clean-coal technology comes at the end of the coal cycle, carbon
capture and sequestration (CCS); the most developed technologies, like gasification, come earlier in
the cycle. CO
2
emissions from power generation are the leading domestic contributor to
greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere. Sulfur, particle, and NO
x
emissions from coal-
driven power plants are lower than ever before, but coal power generates more carbon dioxide per
unit energy than all other major power sources. True clean-coal power depends on the effectiveness
of CCS; from an environmental perspective, coal derived energy is only truly clean with CCS.
Successfully developed clean coal (with CCS) would allow the United States (or any coal-rich
nation) to rely safely on an abundant domestic energy resource. However, application of successful
CCS is by no means certain to occur before 2025.
Potential Impacts of Clean Coal Technologies on US National Power
3
An additional possibility is that foreign governments or multinational firms would develop the technology. In such a
case, it would be advantageous to the United States to insist on the use of such technology by US utilities and energy
providers. Although this may increase the cost of using the new technology, we assess that to be a minor burden overall
to the US economy. We do not believe there would be a foreign interest in denying or withholding the technology when
the market for it would be substantial.
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Geopolitical: Extending the usefulness of coal reserves would lessen dependence on foreign oil
sources, ease pressure on energy reserves, and give renewable energy sources more
time to develop into significant contributors to the domestic energy profile. Oil-rich
nations will lose some geopolitical influence without the world’s largest economy as
a beholden consumer. Alternatively, without developing domestic energy sources,
the United States may find itself continuously dependent on unstable and often
unfriendly nations for a vital and increasingly scarce energy resource.
Military: Reliance on foreign oil from unstable regions of the world has required military
intervention in the past and will likely do so again if the global energy landscape and
geopolitical situation remain unchanged. The United States, Russia, China, and other
growing world powers could avoid military engagements to protect global oil energy
reserves by extending the usefulness of their expansive coal reserves.
Economic: A convergence of public interest, technological development, and the promise of
environmental policy changes has dramatically increased growth in clean energy
technologies. Additionally, expanding domestic energy sources to lessen (or
eliminate) the energy trade deficit will remove stress on the US economy. Clean coal
also provides a reserve strategy in case developments in renewable fuels do not come
to fruition. Alternatively, the economic consequences of global warming may be
much higher than the incremental costs of clean-coal systems or the economic cost
and burden of implementing clean coal technology may degrade US and global
economic performance.
Cultural: Clean coal may offer a near- to midterm pathway toward lessening the rift between
the industrial sector and citizens concerned about global warming. Carbon capture
and sequestration is the most important component toward this end. Economic
growth coupled with responsible environmental stewardship will add cohesion and a
sense of pride to a population that views these two areas as incompatible. Successful
development and deployment of clean coal technologies would globally enhance the
United States’ technical reputation.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
Key uncertainties affecting the successful integration of clean-coal technologies can fit along two
major axes:
• What will be the driving policy and funding environment, economic growth or
climate/environmental protection?
• What will be the rate of technological advancement for clean coal technologies, rapid or
incremental?
The uncertainty of the policy and funding environment is strongly influenced by concerns about
issues including climate change, economic development, energy security, and natural gas and crude
oil prices relative to coal.
Although the rate of technology advancement will have some dependence on supportive policies
and funding levels, it will also depend on the success or failure of other non- or minimally carbon-
contributing energy sources, including nuclear, biofuels, solar, and wind.
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Although four scenarios are possible with these axes, we concentrate on the two that perhaps
present the most immediate challenges for the United States (“Leave it in the Ground” and “King
Coal”). These are disruptive but for different reasons and we detail the opportunities and threats for
each of these scenarios. We also briefly describe the other two scenarios: The case of high
economic emphasis and incremental clean coal technology development (“Wealth Not Health”)
would ultimately lead to an environmental disaster. The scenario with policy and funding driven by
environmental concerns and rapid development of clean coal technologies (“Act Now”) would not
be as disruptive as clean coal technology matures at such a rate to minimize any adverse economic
impact.
Table 4
CLEAN-COAL TECHNOLOGIES: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Rate of Technology Advancement
Incremental Rapid
Grow the Economy! Wealth Not Health King Coal
Policy and
Funding
Protect the Climate! Leave it in the Ground Act Now
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Wealth Not Health
In “Wealth Not Health” power derived from coal generates more CO
2
per unit energy than any
other major source of energy. The bulk of the scientific community believes that the effect of
uncontrolled expansion of GHG emission will eventually alter the Earth’s climate resulting in
unprecedented economic and environmental damage (see “Leave it in the Ground”). Another
urgent concern is that coal power plants emit mercury, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and
particulate matter along with other pollutants at rates intolerable to public safety. As seen in the
case of TXU Energy in 2007, many US communities will not readily support expansion of coal
power without a paradigm shifting achievement in emissions control technology.
Scenario 2: Act Now
The main impacts of this scenario will be the oil and natural gas industry facing new competition,
and the geopolitical shift in attention from oil-rich countries (see “King Coal”). The remainder of
the United States and much of the world economy will enjoy the benefits of a relatively seamless
transition to operating on clean energy.
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Scenario 3: Leave it in the Ground
In “Leave it in the Ground” the hope of clean coal technologies does not materialize but regulations
aimed at stemming GHG emissions place severe limitations on the coal industry. Carbon capture
and sequestration in deep saline formations proves to be impractical at the scale necessary for
reaching the DOE’s goal of sequestering 90% of carbon emissions from a coal power plant.
Investment in biofuels, solar, next-generation nuclear, wind, and tidal energy result in carbon-free
energy alternatives that are cost-competitive with conventional coal under the carbon-penalizing
regulatory regime. Regulations never go to the extreme of shutting down plants, but permitting and
building new coal plants proves too costly to justify to investors. Integrated gasification combined
cycle (IGCC) facilities turn out to be useful for producing hydrogen gas, but still cost too much to
operate as power plants with unreliable gas turbines, resulting in too much equipment downtime.
Coal to liquid transportation fuels prove to be too carbon intensive and are outmoded by the
availability of inexpensive biofuels from domestically grown nonfood crops. The role of coal in the
US energy landscape declines (from about half of all US electricity generation in 2007) as more
alternative energy sources come online and more outdated coal power plants reach the end of their
life cycle and are mothballed. Coal producing states including Wyoming, Kentucky, West Virginia,
and Pennsylvania face economic downturns as domestic energy dollars shift to other areas of the
country, that benefit from the growing renewable energy market (Silicon Valley, coastal and
farming states). China and India, having agreed, under pressure, to the stemming of their GHG
emissions are now faced with severe economic challenges. The regime in Beijing is threatened.
GHGs continue to grow as the planned retrofit of coal plants built in China and the United States
through 2015 now are impractical. Although the growth of clean non-coal technologies has been
impressive, it also has not been sufficient, and by 2020 it is obvious a quick, massive, and costly
transition to nuclear power will be required to protect the climate. The US and global economies
are stressed by the need for such massive recapitalization in the midst of coping with an ever
increasing hostile climate environment.
• Potential opportunities. The United States can profit from exporting non-coal clean-energy
products and technologies. Developing nations not subject to restrictions on carbon emissions
may also seek to buy US coal. The United States could serve as an energy exporter and benefit
from countries that do not yet have access to noncarbon alternatives. Research in clean coal
may continue in an attempt to salvage US coal use and as an opportunity for technology
developers and coal producers to sustain coal exports as developing countries adopt low-carbon
standards. Although not useful for fuel purposes, CTL may still offer economic advantages
over oil-based petrochemicals in an unstable oil market.
• Potential threats. If China and India refuse to adopt low-carbon standards, they will retain an
even greater cost advantage in manufacturing over low-carbon states than they do today. As
both countries develop and reach increased standards of living for their very large populations,
dramatically increasing energy generation from outdated means would accelerate the buildup of
atmospheric greenhouse gases. Researchers predict that unchecked accumulation of GHG will
lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, which can cause extensive economic
and social damage. The expanded use of nuclear power raises increased risks for nuclear
proliferation and the spread of nuclear weapons. High US reliance upon nuclear power removes
all moral legitimacy for opposing the development of nuclear power by other states.
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Scenario 4: King Coal
In “King Coal,” rapid economic growth in the 2008-2015 timeframe has caused CO
2
emissions to
increase significantly but has also provided private funds (from profits) to develop clean coal
technologies. Success with CCS has been particularly impressive. New coal power plants are
constructed between 2008 and 2015 without carbon capture and sequestration capabilities, but with
the ability to retrofit. By 2020 retrofits can be done at minimal costs. Driven by rapid economic
growth, oil prices have been very high, and other clean coal technologies (coal to liquid and coal to
gas [CTG]) are developed as competitive alternatives to oil. Breakthroughs in clean coal
technology, occurring around 2020, are followed by regulations requiring their implementation.
Energy security becomes a US mantra, and CTL and CTG development accelerates. The start-up
costs and regulatory hurdles prove too much for investors who have been interested in new nuclear
capacity as an alternative to coal. Solar panels cover an increasing number of US rooftops, thanks
to technology and manufacturing advances and government subsidies. Wind power also advances
although it is limited to certain wind-rich geographic regions because of opposition from wildlife
and coastline-preservation groups. But combined solar and wind power doesn’t exceed 10% of US
electricity generation by 2025. Coal use has grown to account for nearly two-thirds of US
electricity generation, and hydrogen (from natural gas and coal via IGCC) and coal-based diesel
provide a significant and growing percentage of transportation fuels. After 2020 oil markets
plummet. Major oil exporters face severe economic challenges as their single commodity
economies collapse. Despite the resulting internal and regional instabilities, the United States, with
energy independence, shows little interest in engaging with the ensuing problems. China and India
readily accept the clean coal technology. Russia has wisely saved oil revenues from the previous
rise in oil prices and has diversified its economy. Because coal resources are finite, development
continues with other non-coal clean energy technologies.
As the coal industry moves forward beyond 2025 with near elimination of environmental concerns
from newly built coal plants, significant long-term potential exists for sustained, clean, domestic
energy supplies.
• Potential opportunities. The United States, China, and India benefit from expanded use of
domestic energy supplies. They see a long-term means for using their coal reserves and could
benefit from technology sharing arrangements in clean coal. The United States could also profit
from exporting coal and eventually clean-coal products and technologies. The United States
could serve as an energy exporter and benefit from countries that do not yet have access to
noncarbon alternatives.
• Potential threats. Without leadership from the United States in GHG emission reduction
through development of clean coal technologies, China and India will most certainly continue to
prioritize economic growth over environmental concerns, which would maintain the
environmental risk posed in the “Leave it in the Ground” scenario. Additionally, although
extensive known coal reserves exist in the United States, many are difficult to recover. This
difficulty may result in a “peak coal” effect that even with development of clean coal
technologies sees a time when all easily recoverable coal is consumed. The United States
would still require alternative energy sources to remain independent. Russia, with the second-
largest known reserves, could find itself in an increasingly influential role as an even more
important energy supplier than it is today. Regional and local instabilities coupled with a US
disinterest in engagement with them may allow new ideologies and threats to fester out of
control. The rich (coal countries) get richer and the poor (non-coal countries) take the double
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hits from changing climate and a difficulty in economically competing with the giants, the
United States, China, Russia, and India.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward clean coal technology development, include:
• Global demand for energy,
• Development of other carbon- and non-carbon-based alternative energy sources and their
economic viability (for example: bio-fuels, solar energy, wind),
• The price of oil in comparison with that of alternative energy,
• US government policy regulating the emission of greenhouse gases, increasing energy efficiency,
and investing in and subsidizing alternative and renewable energy sources, and
• Successful sequestration of CO
2
through energetically and economically viable means.
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Service Robotics
Why Are Service Robotics Potentially Disruptive?
Robotics and its enabling technologies have already advanced to the stage where single-application
robots and related systems (including autonomous vehicles) are being implemented in a wide range
of civil and defense applications. Although a great deal of development is still required in terms of
intelligence for robots, effective artificial intelligence (AI) and behavioral algorithms, many of the
building blocks for disruptive robot systems are either already in place, or will be by 2025. The
include hardware (e.g. sensors, actuators, and power systems) and software (e.g. robot platforms).
Key disruptive applications of service robotics will include uses in domestic and defense settings.
In addition, robotics technology has the potential to diffuse into other application areas, for
example, human augmentation and autonomous vehicles.
Potential Impacts of Service Robotics on US National Power
Robots are designed to replace humans in a variety of applications, with each application having
potentially far-reaching implications. Although truly intelligent robots are unlikely to emerge by
2025 (the key barrier being AI), robotics technology still has the potential to impact the four
elements of national power:
Geopolitical: Robotics is unlikely to transform geopolitics unless a massive advance in AI
technologies occurs. However, the use of unmanned systems for terrorist activities
could emerge by 2025 because the availability of simple robot platforms will increase
significantly.
Economic: The global market for nonindustrial robotics could reach $15 billion by 2015. While
it will be an important new industry, it is unlikely to significantly impede or aid the
economic development of the United States.
Military: Of all the four elements of national power, robotics is likely to have the greatest
impact on the military element. Many robots and similar unmanned systems are
already being implemented, although their capabilities are still limited. By 2025,
unmanned systems with a much greater level of autonomy will have been
implemented, and closely related/synergistic technologies (e.g. human augmentation
systems) will extend the performance of soldiers significantly. The United States is
likely to remain the world leader in this area.
Cultural: Robotics could influence a number of key areas of life that affect social cohesion.
The development and implementation of robots for elder-care applications, and the
development of human-augmentation technologies, mean that robots could be
working alongside humans in looking after and rehabilitating people by 2025
(particularly in Japan and South Korea). However, over-reliance on automated
devices such as domestic robots could increase obesity levels. A change in domestic
and social responsibilities and a change in domestic employment requirements could
affect lower income service-oriented workers.
The opportunity exists for the United States (and US companies) to continue to be a world leader in
robotics technologies, particularly for defense and domestic applications. The opportunity also
exists for the United States and its allies to lead in the implementation of military robots and
associated technologies. In addition, US researchers must continue to press ahead with research
relating to AI and human-robot interaction, to avoid falling behind Japan and South Korea. Chinese
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players will compete effectively with U.S., South Korean, European, and (most notably) Japanese
companies in domestic and leisure robots by 2025—China is also developing military robots.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
The key uncertainties associated with the future of robotics technologies can be demonstrated using
two major axes:
• Technology advancement
• Global interest and funding.
The key uncertainty along the technology advancement axis comprises the technical risks and
knowledge gaps that will either move toward useful robots with commercial applications or toward
an environment of many weak links with no discernable products. Artificial intelligence in robots
is the key differentiator.
The global interest and funding axis will be influenced by technical progress. Governments and
industry players will either be fully supportive and enthusiastic about robotics, or be cautious,
perhaps removing funding and cutting R&D programs.
Using these axes, four scenarios—”Niche Products,” “Loss of Patience,” “Quasi-Autonomy,” and
the “Autonomous World”—can highlight how the future could play out through 2025. We describe
each of these scenarios briefly and detail the opportunities and threats in the two scenarios that
reflect the extremes of technological and commercial progress. These axes and scenarios are
highlighted in Table 5.
Table 5
SERVICE ROBOTICS: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Technology Advancement
Weak Links Positive Shifts
Weakening of
Government and
Industrial Interest
Niche Products Lost Patience
Interest and
Funding
Support, Funding,
and Regulation
Quasi-Autonomy Autonomous World
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Lost Patience
Although major developments occur in several major enabling technologies, notably in terms of AI,
through 2025, these developments occur too late to generate enough enthusiasm among key
robotics stakeholders. Instead of commercialization of robots per se, advances in enabling
technologies are often quickly transferred to other products and services, especially vehicles and
consumer electronics. The lack of an integrated approach limits the overall impact of some
significant advances in robotics technology, and low-cost manufacturing is unrealistic. Although
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some autonomous robots do see use in some applications (notably for defense applications), robots
are still too expensive for many application areas. In general, the structure of the robotics industry
remains fairly static.
Scenario 2: Quasi-Autonomy
In “Quasi-Autonomy” we see only steady progress in key enabling technologies relating to robotics.
In particular, the development of advanced computing technologies and cognitive-robotics R&D
does not enable a major shift in intelligent robotics. Nevertheless, advances in other (some would
say, less crucial) technologies occur, and simple robot systems start to become extremely popular in
home applications. This commercial success drives interest in funding robotics R&D, and key
players start to roll out affordable robots. International standards are developed, and some
consolidation occurs in the nonindustrial robotics industry. Technology-transfer into other
applications continues, and assisted vehicles become almost omnipresent.
Scenario 3: Niche Products
In “Niche Products” predicted advances in robotics and its myriad enabling technologies never
emerge. In particular, R&D relating to artificial intelligence and cognitive science does not move
fast enough. Although some progress is made, any small breakthroughs are offset by the discovery
of new problems and barriers to progress. Research relating to AI becomes nebulous. The lack of
progress in robotics is not helped by progress in consumer electronics, connected homes, and home
automation. People do not need robots to help them. Robotics continues to struggle to find enough
viable applications to sustain a growing industry. Interest in funding robotics R&D lowers, and key
players follow Sony’s lead and abandon advanced robotics R&D. International standards are not
developed. Some consolidation occurs in the nonindustrial robotics industry, but in general the
structure of the industry remains static, with key players producing specific defense-, domestic-,
transport- and leisure-related products. Low-cost manufacturing becomes the key to continued
growth.
• Potential opportunities. The United States is well positioned to assume a leadership role in the
development of robots for niche applications, especially military robots, and its players continue
to lead in this area. While funding is cut for some high-level R&D activities, funding becomes
concentrated around the development of key strategic technologies, such as UCVs and wearable
robotics. This expertise leads to the United States having a clear advantage over many of its
enemies in conflicts of many different types. By 2020, the number of US soldiers killed in
combat has been reduced significantly by the adoption of unmanned systems.
• Potential threats. Although the United States continues to be a world leader in defense
robotics, robotics technology in general has not moved on enough for this strategic advantage to
be critical. Although the United States is well positioned to defeat many types of threat via the
use of unmanned systems (especially guerilla tactics), other countries also start to adopt
unmanned systems to bolster their forces and catch up. Problems emerge in other application
areas. iRobot faces such competition from both legitimate and counterfeit competitors in China
that it sells its domestic-robotics business in 2015. The lack of support for advanced R&D
means that key US centers of excellence and leaders of robotics R&D (Carnegie Mellon and
MIT) have a significantly reduced profile.
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Scenario 4: Autonomous World
In “Autonomous World” several large advances occur in key enabling technologies relating to
robotics. In particular, the development of advanced computing technologies and the successful
completion of initial cognitive-robotics R&D enables a paradigm shift in intelligent robotics.
Although advanced intelligent robots are still too expensive for most people to afford, robots are
starting to be used for some key applications. In Japan, many robots are used to look after elderly
people, and robots perform many difficult or repetitive jobs. In addition, these advances have
resulted in a great deal of technology-transfer into other applications. By 2020, even a simple
leisure robot can help with some small tasks around the home (such as home security and tidying
up). Crucially, robots have become a “must have” item for many people and a successful
consumer-robotics industry emerges. In addition, other technologies benefit from this progress,
autonomous vehicles become commonplace.
• Potential opportunities. With key developments and breakthroughs in robotics occurring at
their universities and thus holding the core patents to the commercialization of some research,
the United States and Japan remain in the driver’s seat of the subsequent commercialization
activity—with Europe and South Korea following close behind. The US academic research
community benefits greatly from follow-on research. The resulting technology transfer to the
private sector results in considerable entrepreneurial activity that provides a new era of
technology-led economic activity to boost the economy. US companies continue to invest in
robotics and associated technologies, and global standards for robot implementation emerge.
The US military meets and exceeds its targets (set in the mid 2000s) for the implementation of
unmanned systems. Robots can replace human workers in a number of skilled manufacturing
roles, boosting the competitiveness of U.S.-based manufacturing (also the case in Japan) in
general.
• Potential threats. This scenario could have some economic and demographic impacts that
policy makers are unprepared for. With robots having the ability to replace humans in skilled
roles, unemployment becomes more of a problem as manual labor starts to become outdated.
The increasing competitiveness of completely automated manufacturing in Japan and the United
States triggered a slowdown in the growth of manufacturing in China, and the specter of
economic collapse hangs over the region. In the United States, homes and cars have
significantly increased in complexity due to all the automation, countering reductions in the
power consumption of individual devices and also affecting recycling efforts. Extensive
automation has not helped solve the problem of obesity; indeed many commentators argue it is
a major contributor to obesity. In addition, the implementation of advanced robots for security
applications (including micro robots and UAVs) leads to social tensions and disruption in some
countries.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward service robotics technology development, include:
• The size and nature of robotics investments in the United States,
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• Players involved in robotics R&D. Watch for either another key player to follow Sony’s lead
and abandons robotics altogether, or for a new player to follow Microsoft and invest heavily in
robotics,
• Global levels of funding for robotics research, in particular, whether investment continues to
rise or is cut,
• Toy becomes tool. The point when a toy robot has the ability to perform a useful task within
the home (for example, retrieving an object for the user),
• The establishment of centers of excellence in robotics research outside the United States and
models for research and commercialization,
• The completion of initial (international) research programs for the development of cognitive
robots,
• The development of noninvasive brain-machine interfaces,
• The launch of Chinese designed and built robots for domestic, service-sector, and defense
applications,
• Development of unmanned vehicles with sliding autonomy for both civil and defense
applications, and
• The development and implementation of national and international standards for service,
domestic, and military robots.
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The Internet of Things
Why is the Internet of Things Potentially Disruptive?
Individuals, businesses, and governments are unprepared for a possible future when Internet nodes
reside in such everyday things as food packages, furniture, paper documents, and more. Today’s
developments point to future opportunities and risks that will arise when people can remotely
control, locate, and monitor everyday things. Popular demand combined with technology advances
could drive widespread diffusion of an Internet of Things (IoT) that could, like the present Internet,
contribute invaluably to our economy. But to the extent that everyday objects become information-
security risks, the IoT could distribute those risks far more widely than the Internet has to date.
Potential Impacts of the Internet of Things on US National Power
If the United States executes wisely, the IoT could work to the long-term advantage of the domestic
economy and to the US military. Streamlining—or revolutionizing—supply chains and logistics
could slash costs, increase efficiencies, and reduce dependence on human labor. Ability to fuse
sensor data from many distributed objects could deter crime and asymmetric warfare. Ubiquitous
positioning technology could locate missing and stolen goods. On the other hand, we may be
unable to deny access to networks of sensors and remotely-controlled objects by enemies of the
United States, criminals, and mischief makers. Foreign manufacturers could become both the
single-source and single-point-of-failure for mission-critical Internet-enabled things. Manufacturers
could also become vectors for delivering everyday objects containing malicious software that
causes havoc in everyday life. An open market for aggregated sensor data could serve the interests
of commerce and security no less than it helps criminals and spies identify vulnerable targets.
Thus, massively parallel sensor fusion may undermine social cohesion if it proves to be
fundamentally incompatible with Fourth-Amendment guarantees against unreasonable search. By
2025, social critics may even charge that Asia’s dominance of the manufacturing of things—and the
objects that make up the Internet of Things—has funded the remilitarization of Asia, fueled
simmering intra-Asian rivalries, and reduced US influence over the course of geopolitical events.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
When considering the spectrum of possibilities for the state of the IoT in 2025, the key uncertainties
span a number of unresolved issues that fall along two major axes:
• The timing of developments (slow versus fast)
• The depth of penetration (niches versus ubiquity).
In terms of timing, just as the Internet and mobile telephony grew rapidly after their incubation
periods, the IoT could emerge relatively rapidly if, on balance, the preponderance of conditions
yields favorable policies, technological progress, and business collaboration. Or the IoT could arise
more slowly if, on balance, conditions are less favorable in these dimensions.
In terms of depth of penetration, just as the Internet and mobile telephony penetrated deeply into the
fabric of developed nations, the IoT could pervade everyday life if, on balance, the preponderance
of conditions yields an enthusiastic public that uses its pocketbook to express strong market
demand. Alternatively, if those demand signals do not materialize—for example if the public
perceives costs, disadvantages, and risks that outweigh perceived benefits—then the IoT may
remain limited to industrial, commercial, and government niches. Yet even those niches could
include benefits and harms that would significantly affect the United States.
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On the basis of these two axes of uncertainty, four scenarios highlight the spectrum of possibilities
for how the future could play out until 2025. Whether fast and widespread, or slow and niche-
driven, the emergence of the IoT has the potential to affect US interests. We focus on the
opportunities and threats that the two extreme scenarios present to the United States: Important
risks and advantages will arise even in the “Connected Niches” scenario, which represents
moderately-paced opportunistic developments of IoT technology. At the other extreme, “Ambient
Interaction” highlights the implications of a rapid and deep penetration of information-
communications technology into everyday objects—a scenario that is sufficiently plausible that its
dramatic risks and advantages deserve consideration. We also describe briefly “Fast Burn” and
“Slowly But Surely,” which represent the middle ground among the four scenarios.
Table 6
THE INTERNET OF THINGS: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Depth of Penetration
Vertical Applications Widespread
Expedited Fast Burn Ambient Interaction
Timing of
Developments
Evolutionary Connected Niches Slowly But Surely
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Fast Burn
In “Fast Burn” the IoT develops rapidly but in a limited fashion, and fails to sustain its momentum.
Although impacts become quite significant in particular application areas (industrial automation,
health care, and security), the IoT doesn’t fulfill the promise of becoming pervasive (and thus is of
limited importance to everyday lifestyles, business operations, and the conduct of government).
Ubiquitous positioning technology never materializes as military concerns about the risks of
terrorists gaining access to improved geopositioning combine with inadequate local-government
funding for emergency-service positioning. In this scenario, IoT technology confers similar risks
and benefits to US interests to those experienced in “Connected Niches,” but neither the risks nor
the benefits to US interests inherent in “Ambient Interaction.”
Scenario 2: Slowly But Surely
In “Slowly But Surely” the IoT becomes pervasive, but not until 2035 or so. Outcomes are
somewhat similar to those of “Ambient Interaction,” but there are substantial differences. The
relatively slow development of the technology gives businesses and governments time to assimilate
developments, allaying the most disruptive risks. Many risks remain, but the sheer complexity of
technology in 2035 makes the IoT less accessible to hacking by mischief-makers. Nevertheless, the
most motivated malefactors and enemies of the United States can exploit the IoT in ways that are
similar to those experienced in “Ambient Interaction,” and benefits to US interests do not
materialize as dramatically as they do in “Ambient Interaction.”
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Scenario 3: Connected Niches
In “Connected Niches” the IoT evolves along application pathways that promise rapid payback and
that can overcome resistance and indifference. Demand is commensurate with evolutionary but not
revolutionary cost reductions, moderate technology progress that leaves some problems largely
unsolved. Industries show reluctance to fully collaborate. Policies express at best a benign neglect
for the potential advantages and, at worst, discriminate against innovation in favor of grandfathered
interests. Even in 2025, positioning technology remains limited to outdoor use and many individual
items lack RFID tags. Nevertheless, innovations encourage adoption of connected everyday objects
and sensor networks in security, logistics, healthcare, document management, inventory
management, fleet management, industrial automation, and robotics. In short, connected everyday
devices are common in workplaces and military operations but not in households. Similarly, sensor
networks mainly reside in workplaces and public places. Connected everyday objects and sensor
networks deliver significant value to the economy and significant efficiencies to military
organizations but also introduce significant vulnerabilities as new pathways for exploitation become
available to mischief makers, criminals, and enemies of the United States. As niches grow, some
interconnect, introducing unexpected interactions—some synergistic, others counterproductive.
• Potential opportunities. The United States gains short-term economic advantages by adopting
technologies that streamline commercial logistics and industrial automation, the combined effect
of which lowers costs and boosts corporate profits. When retailers choose to keep RFID at the
pallet level, technology suppliers aggressively seek and find alternative growth pathways via
vertical-market opportunities. Airports and other public-transit hubs become venues for large-
scale sensor networks that support the missions of private-security and public-safety agencies.
For recognizing patterns of behavior indicating ill intent, software helps but does not reduce the
need for human observers and analysts. Similarly, the IoT deters theft and helps locate missing
goods, albeit indoor location is limited to perimeter-secured environments. Many hospitals and
long-term care facilities become high-tech havens, resulting in significantly improved qualities
of care. Two key niches—fleet management and document management—provide growth
pathways for the IoT that confer decisive advantages over traditional approaches. Government
and commercial operators of vehicle fleets find substantial value in advanced vehicle diagnostics
and prognostics, enabling maintenance as-needed rather than on a schedule, concurrently
yielding both reduced costs and increased reliability. Also, as solution prices fall, by 2020 paper
documents and publications as well as electronic substitutes for paper—e-books, smartcards, and
other devices—commonly contain RFID tags, enabling automation of many formerly tedious and
time-consuming processes.
• Potential risks. The IoT’s advantages to the US economy are moderated by trade imbalances
that favor the adding of value to everyday things by overseas manufacturers. First responders
have poorer geolocation capability than terrorists (who use real-time kinematic and/or satellite-
based augmentation solutions that are far less expensive to a small cell of individuals than to
large public safety agencies). The IoT’s contributions to physical security come at the cost of a
high rate of false positive and false negative detections, so that while people consider that the
cost-benefit balance is favorable, it is only marginally so; thus, depth of support is shallow.
Similarly, while the IoT proves to be a boon for healthcare overall, some hospitals and long-term
care facilities reduce costs by trading away the “care” in healthcare in favor of surveillance and
restrictive access-control policies. While the IoT is decisively beneficial for vehicle maintenance
and document management, serious risks and unavoidable annoyances accompany even these
SRI Consulting Business Intelligence
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applications. A host of risks accompany people’s overconfidence in technical solutions, often at
the neglect of common sense.
Scenario 4: Ambient Interaction
In “Ambient Interaction” the IoT arises rapidly and pervasively, favored by technology progress,
business collaboration, and innovation-friendly policies. Strong demand arises across several major
sectors of the economy, as technological wizardry combined with creative business developments
stimulate people’s appetites for killer applications that reduce labor and tedium, confer peace of
mind, and blur the lines between work, play, and commerce. Connected everyday objects and
sensor networks are common in workplaces, public places, and households. By 2017, walk-through
checkout procedures are the norm for retailing, and nationwide positioning technology is in place,
including indoors. Strategic initiatives have ensured that the United States enjoys long-term
economic and military advantages. Nevertheless, great risks accompany great benefits as pervasive
computing introduces equally pervasive vulnerabilities. Just as the Internet aggravated the risks of
cyberwarfare, spam, identity theft, and denial-of-service attacks, connected everyday objects
become targets for malicious software that causes everyday devices to fail or spy. Sensor networks
become channels for unauthorized surveillance by mischief makers, criminals, and enemies of the
United States.
• Potential opportunities. Geopolitical advantages arise as the United States uses sensor
networks to foil terrorists and asymmetrical warriors. The US military gains long-term
advantage by quickly streamlining operations and adopting strategic initiatives for continuous
innovation, specifically for the purpose of sustaining that advantage. The United States also
gains long-term economic advantages by embracing technologies (notably, item-level RFID and
indoor location) that concurrently streamline commercial logistics and add value to physical
products, the combined effect of which stimulates GDP. In fact, the pervasive IoT enables
logistics to undergo a revolution rather than merely streamlining. By 2025, robotic supply
chains are common and considered more secure and less prone to human tampering than
traditional shipping and receiving. At ports, containers report their contents to heavy
equipment, which routes goods to trucks automatically; at distribution points, pallets and
forklifts similarly communicate and route goods which arrive in stores largely untouched by
human hands. RFIDs in individual food packages drive popular adoption of RFID readers in
cell phones that provide an indication of food origins and provenance. Makers of other
packaged goods leverage the universality of RFID readers in cell phones. A combination of
useful advice and marketing gimmicks yields a remarkable mix of “advertainment” and social
benefits, such as cell phones that double as displays for multilingual user manuals and recycling
instructions. Individuals enthusiastically adopt objects having embedded positioning capability,
dramatically reducing the incidence of misplaced and stolen goods.
• Potential risks. The incidental risks mentioned in the Connected Niches scenario (above)
threaten to multiply by an order of magnitude. As the United States increases its reliance on the
IoT, supply disruptions will yield operational disruptions. Asia’s role as single-source
manufacturing center establishes a single point of failure for mission-critical materiel when new
vehicles arrive on US shores “contaminated” by malware. Terrorists can exploit sensor
networks, whose encryption technology threatens to lag far behind the cracking capabilities of
East- and North-European teenagers equipped with massively-multicore laptop computers. The
same corporate and government misunderstanding of security issues that yielded email-
propagated viruses and spam-generating “zombie” computers could end up providing the means
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for criminals and mischief makers to exploit connected everyday objects through lax security
systems.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward development of the Internet of Things, include:
• The size and nature of demand for expedited logistics in commerce and military organizations,
• The effectiveness of initial waves of IoT technology in reducing costs, thereby creating
conditions for diffusion into vertical application areas including civilian government operations,
law enforcement, healthcare, and document management,
• The ability of devices located indoors to receive geolocation signals, possibly, distributing such
signals by leveraging available infrastructures (cell towers, broadcasters, and other means),
• Closely related technological advances in miniaturization and energy-efficient electronics,
including reduced-power microcomputers and communications methods, energy-harvesting
transducers, and improved microbatteries,
• Efficient use of spectrum, including cost-effective solutions for wide-area communications at
duty cycles that are much smaller (e.g., the equivalent of a few minutes per month) than those of
cell phones (averaging many minutes per day), and
• Advances in software that act on behalf of people, and software that effectively fuses (“makes
sense of”) sensor information from disparate sources.
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Abbreviations
The following abbreviations are used in this Report:
AI artificial intelligence
BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, and China
BTL biomass-to-liquids
CCS carbon capture and sequestration
cm centimeter
CNT carbon nanotube
CTG coal to gas
CTL coal to liquids
DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
DNA deoxyribonucleic acid
DOE Department of Energy (United States)
EDLC electrochemical double layer capacitor
EU European Union
EV electric vehicle
FCC Federal Communications Commission (United States)
FCS Future Combat Systems
FFV flex-fuel vehicles
g gram
GDP gross domestic product
GHG greenhouse gas
GHz gigahertz
GIS geographic information system
GPS global positioning system
HEV hybrid electric vehicle
ID identification
IFR International Federation of Robotics
IGCC integrated gasification combined cycle
IOT Internet of things
IPR intellectual property rights
IT information technology
kg kilogram
kW kilowatt
kWh kilowatt hour
LAN local area network
LMP lithium-metal polymer
m meter
MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MOF metal-organic framework
NASCAR National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing
NDGPS Nationwide Differential Global Positioning System
NETL National Energy Technology Laboratory (U.S.)
NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (United States)
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
SRI Consulting Business Intelligence
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PC pulverized-coal
PC personal computer
PDA portable digital assistant
PDO 1,3-propanediol
PLA polylactic acid
R&D research and development
RF radio frequency
RFID radio-frequency identification
SWNT single-walled CNT
tpd tons per day
TUI tangible user interface
UAV unmanned aerial vehicle
UCV unmanned combat vehicle
UGV unmanned ground vehicle
UHF ultra-high frequency
USPTO United States Patent and Trademark Office
UWB ultrawideband
V volt
Wh Watt hour
wt weight
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SRI Consulting Business Intelligence
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doc_159742018.pdf
To support the development of the National Intelligence Councils Global Trends 2025, SRI Consulting Business Intelligence (SRIC-BI) was asked to identify six potentially disruptive civil or dual use technologies that could emerge in the coming fifteen years (2025).
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Disruptive Civil Technologies
Six Technologies with Potential Impacts on US
Interests out to 2025
Biogerontechnology
Energy Storage Materials
Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals
Clean Coal Technologies
Service Robotics
The Internet of Things
The National Intelligence Council sponsors workshops and
research with nongovernmental experts to gain knowledge and
insight and to sharpen debate on critical issues. The views
expressed in this report do not reflect official US Government
positions.
Prepared by SRI Consulting Business Intelligence under the auspices of the
National Intelligence Council. Questions and comments regarding this report
should be directed to the National Intelligence Officer for Science and
Technology on (703) 482-6811.
CR 2008-07
April 2008
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SRI Consulting Business Intelligence
i
To support the development of the National Intelligence Council’s Global
Trends 2025, SRI Consulting Business Intelligence (SRIC-BI) was asked to
identify six potentially disruptive civil or dual use technologies that could
emerge in the coming fifteen years (2025). A disruptive technology is
defined as a technology with the potential to causes a noticeable – even if
temporary – degradation or enhancement in one of the elements of US
national power (geopolitical, military, economic, or social cohesion).
The six disruptive technologies were identified through a process carried out
by technology analysts from SRIC-BI’s headquarters in Menlo Park,
California, and its European office in Croydon, England.
These analysts are continuously monitoring technology, business, and social
environments for two long-term continuous research programs:
• The SRI Scan™ program identifies and assesses possible futures by
gaining early awareness of signals and patterns of change before they
become conventional wisdom.
• The SRI Explorer program identifies and develops an understanding of
how and why technologies develop. The program also evaluates the
commercial development parameters and uncertainties behind technology
commercialization.
Through a process of online discussions, clustering, development of
technology descriptors, screening, and prioritizing, SRIC-BI Explorer and
Scan™ analysts down-selected from 102 potentially disruptive technologies.
They identified the following six technologies as most likely to enhance or
degrade US national power out to 2025:
Biogerontechnology
Energy Storage Materials
Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals
Clean Coal Technologies
Service Robotics
The Internet of Things.
Scope Note:
SRI Consulting Business Intelligence
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PROCESS FOR SELECTION OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Generate Ideas ( wiki )
Screen Disruptive
Technologies
according to NIC-
criteria
Select Most Critical
Form Clusters
Review of SRIC-BI knowledge
base
Describe Technologies
and Disruptions
Create Disruptive
Technology Profiles
Step 4:
Step 2:
Step 3:
Step 1:
Step 5:
Step 6:
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SRI Consulting Business Intelligence
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Six civil technologies offer the potential to enhance or degrade US power
over the next fifteen years according to National Intelligence Council
(NIC) sponsored contractor research. These include biogerontechnology,
1
energy storage technology, biofuels and bio-based chemical technology,
clean coal technology, service robotic technology, and information
technology devoted to increased connectivity of people and things.
Biogerontechnology offers the means to accomplish control over and
improvement in the human condition, and promises improvements in
lifespan. The advancement of the science and technology underlying the
biological aging process has the potential to not only extend the average
natural lifespan, but also to simultaneously postpone many if not all of the
costly and disabling conditions that humans experience in later life, thereby
creating a longevity dividend that will be economic, social and medical in
nature.
• The disruptive potential comes in the form of new treatment modalities,
shifts in the cost, and resulting allocation and use of health care
resources.
• Nations will be challenged as a result of changing demographic
structures, new psychologies, activity patterns of aging yet healthy
citizens, and the resulting requirement to formulate new national
economic and social policies.
Energy Storage technologies have the potential to disrupt the way energy is
stored and distributed for use in transportation and portable devices.
These technologies include battery materials, ultracapacitors, and hydrogen
storage materials (particularly for fuel cells). Within these components both
synergy and competitive tension exists.
• The biggest level of disruption that could occur, both in economic
terms and in terms of global socio-economic structure, would be the
potential for one of these technologies (or a combination) to lead to a
paradigm shift away from fossil fuels.
Biofuels and bio-based chemicals production technologies have the only
potential near-term capability to provide alternatives to conventional
gasoline and diesel-fuel and petrochemical feedstocks. Crop-based biofuels
are already in wide use, work in today’s vehicles, and require no major
investments in infrastructure for their use. Biofuels also help to address
global-warming concerns by reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
from vehicles. The rate of technology advancement will be strongly
influenced by the regulatory environment and the need to address feedstock
constraints and reduce costs.
1
Biogerontechnology is technology related to the biological aging processes.
Executive Summary:
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• The United States and a growing number of other countries have already
begun a transition toward biofuels that could ultimately have far-reaching
impacts on world energy markets. A large-scale move to energy-
efficient biofuels could increase US energy security and ease
international competition for world oil supplies and reserves.
• Conversely, if the United States does not develop a strong bio-based
economy, the country would become increasingly dependent upon less-
than-friendly countries for a critical energy resource.
Clean coal technologies and an array of related technologies offer the
potential to improve electrical generation efficiency, lower emissions of
harmful pollutants, and provide fuels and chemical feedstocks from
available coal resources. The development of clean coal technologies is
gaining momentum in coal rich nations, which include major economic and
scientific powers, but it is not certain to succeed.
• Failure to successfully develop clean coal technology in an
environment where there is high expectation of success will result in
environmental damage with major adverse economic impacts.
• Conversely, a successful accelerated and rapid deployment of clean coal
technology could pose a major challenge to other (predominantly oil)
energy markets; the resulting geopolitical instability could also be a
major challenge to US interests.
Robots have the potential to replace humans in a variety of applications
with far-reaching implications. Robotics and enabling technologies have
already advanced to the stage where single-application robots and related
systems (including autonomous vehicles) are being implemented in a wide
range of civil and defense applications. Although a great deal of
development is still required in terms of intelligence for robots, many of the
building blocks for potentially disruptive robot systems are either already in
place, or will be by 2025, including hardware (e.g. sensors, actuators, and
power systems) and software (e.g. robot platforms).
• The use of unmanned systems for terrorist activities could emerge
because the availability of commercial civil robot platforms will increase
significantly.
• Unmanned military systems with a much greater level of autonomy and
closely related/synergistic technologies (e.g. human augmentation
systems) could enhance the performance of soldiers.
• The development and implementation of robots for elder-care
applications, and the development of human-augmentation
technologies, mean that robots could be working alongside humans in
looking after and rehabilitating people. A change in domestic and
social responsibilities and a change in domestic employment
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requirements could adversely affect lower income service-oriented
workers.
By 2025 Internet nodes may reside in everyday things—food packages,
furniture, paper documents, and more. Today’s developments point to
future opportunities and risks that will arise when people can remotely
control, locate, and monitor even the most mundane devices and articles.
Popular demand combined with technology advances could drive widespread
diffusion of an Internet of Things (IoT) that could, like the present Internet,
contribute invaluably to economic development and military capability.
• Streamlining—or revolutionizing—supply chains and logistics could
slash costs, increase efficiencies, and reduce dependence on human
labor. Ability to fuse sensor data from many distributed objects could
deter crime and asymmetric warfare. Ubiquitous positioning technology
could locate missing and stolen goods.
• However, to the extent that everyday objects become information-
security risks, the IoT could distribute those risks far more widely than
the Internet has to date.
• Massively parallel sensor fusion may undermine social cohesion if it
proves to be fundamentally incompatible with Fourth-Amendment
guarantees against unreasonable search.
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Contents
Scope Note i
Executive Summary iii
Discussion 1
Biogerontechnology 1
Energy Storage Materials 6
Biofuels and Bio Based Chemicals 11
Clean Coal Technologies 16
Service Robotics 22
The Internet of Things 27
Abbreviations 32
Appendices
2
APPENDIX A: Biogerontechnology (Background)
APPENDIX B: Energy Storage Materials (Background)
APPENDIX C: Biofuels and Bio Based Chemicals (Background)
APPENDIX D: Clean Coal Technologies (Background)
APPENDIX E: Service Robotics (Background)
APPENDIX F: The Internet of Things (Background)
2
Appendices are available on the accompanying compact disc (CD).
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Discussion
Biogerontechnology
Why is Biogerontechnology Potentially Disruptive?
Since the start the twentieth century, when the average natural lifespan in the United States was 47
years of age, gains in life expectancy have been impressive thanks to a combination of medical
interventions, lifestyle choices, and behavior modifications. In 2005, the average human life
expectancy in the United States was 78 years, with life expectancy for women approximately five
years longer than for men. The US Census Bureau estimates that life expectancy will increase by
another six years by 2050. Biogerontechnology, which offers the means to accomplish control over
and improvement in the human condition, promises even greater longevity gains. The advancement
of the science and technology underlying the biological aging process has the potential to not only
extend the average natural lifespan forecasts but also to simultaneously postpone many if not all of
the costly and disabling conditions that humans experience in later life, thereby creating a longevity
dividend that will be economic, social and medical in nature. The disruptive potential will also
come in the form of new treatment modalities, and shifts in the cost, allocation and use of health
care resources. Nations will be challenged as a result of the changing demographic structures and
new psychologies, behaviors and activity patterns of aging yet healthy citizens and the concomitant
need to formulate new national economic and social policies.
Potential Impacts of Biogerontechnology on US National Power
Geopolitical: Biogerontechnology will influence policy making and business decisions related to
international finance and macroeconomics which will lead to changes in global
investment cycles as well as investment flows and economic ties between nations.
With health care spending accounting for 16% of GDP in the United States (closer to
9% in other OECD countries), the opportunity to reduce that share of spending
through biogerontechnology will allow the US government to transfer resources to
other areas of the economy and prioritize capital investments that could change the
course of national economic development. The same goes for many other countries.
Nation states may also see a healthy aging population as a labor resource that can be
leveraged to assure economic competitiveness in global markets. An aging and
healthy population in the United States that remains economically productive can
therefore contribute towards national economic output and productivity. The ability
to maintain a stable stock of domestic labor may also affect the competitive dynamics
and economics of global labor markets and traditional migration patterns.
Economic: If breakthroughs enabled through biogerontechnology were to extend lifespan and
compress morbidity, the costly life stage of frailty and disability that is so common
with today’s aging populations could be postponed and experienced during a shorter
duration of time before death. This, together with a delay in the age at which people
may enter age-entitlement and public health care programs, would create significant
economic savings for the US system. The organization, practice, financing and
delivery of health care could change dramatically in the United States as well as many
other industrialized countries. Biogerontechnology, however, is likely to displace
some of the more conventional gerontology approaches to caring for and providing
for the elderly. As a result, labor markets might be affected as demand for health
services declines. Labor markets could also be affected by the fact older people may
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seek to remain employed longer. As a global business leader, the US may be at the
forefront of innovation and new opportunities in businesses, such as financial
products and services that will seek to capitalize on the longevity boom and risk
factor.
Military: Some technologies inherent in the extension of lifespan and healthspan could find
important applications in a military context primarily those implicated in delaying the
onset of biological aging. This would lead to knowledge retention among older
personnel as they seek to delay retirement from service. The opportunity to prevent
the onset of certain debilitating diseases could lead to significant savings to the
military’s health system, which would allow resources to be deployed to other
strategic areas that are more likely to result in aiding the military might of the United
States.
Cultural: Inequitable market access to biogerontechnologies that offer life-enhancing benefits
may create different life expectancy cohorts according to race, income,
socioeconomic status, or geography, for example, in the United States.
Biogerontechnology could also lead to intergenerational conflicts between younger
and older cohorts and lead to social unrest as investment and employment cycles are
disrupted and affect economic values associated with labor and other capital. New
cultural norms may be established due to changing psychology and behaviors among
older people, which could also lead to dramatic lifestyle changes. Uncertainties may
emerge as lifestyles converge with and influence technology and market trends in
other business sectors as diverse as energy, communications, and finance. Lifestyle
behaviors may also lead to the emergence of new health profiles for populations and
disease threats and health risks may change as unexpected behaviors emerge due to
biogerontechnology.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
The key uncertainties in the biogerontechnology field tend to fall along two major axes:
• The science-and-technology–commercialization continuum
• The formulation of global policy and funding support levels.
The key uncertainty along the science-and-technology–commercialization continuum is the extent
to which advances in scientific knowledge and technical capabilities occur and the degree of the
resulting technical risks and knowledge gaps). Nations will either move toward a more complete
level of understanding and enhanced capabilities or toward an environment of many weak links and
unorthodox risks that limit progress towards market applications.
The global policy and funding environment will be strongly influenced by the degree and rate of
progress in scientific and technical capability. The level of public interest and support for longevity
science as well as government’s ability to balance that with commercial interests will also temper
the policy and funding environment.
On the basis of the two axes of uncertainty, four distinct scenarios seem plausible: one that is
unruly and negative (“Rebel Science”), one that is conservative, having some breakthroughs but
that fall short of the full potential of the technology (“Animal Magic”), and two that have strong
levels of public support but with varying degrees of scientific and technology capabilities (“Dorian
Gray” and “Forever Young”). We describe each of the scenarios briefly and detail the opportunities
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and threats in the two scenarios that highlight the extremes in possibilities for how the future could
play out until 2025.
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Animal Magic
In “Animal Magic” the promise of biogerontechnology is ushered in but only in research involving
animal models. Scientists are in disagreement as to the exact mechanisms for how these research
results could be reproduced in humans. Despite this disagreement and the fact that there has been
no reproducibility of the animal research results in any human studies, researchers remain
emboldened that the critical breakthrough in humans is near. Policy makers and the public are
growing increasingly skeptical the longer the impasse continues. Other fields of biomedical
research that seek to affect aging and the decline in health have borne many more breakthroughs in
clinical potential, and gain greater attention and interest from the public and policy makers.
Scenario 2: Dorian Gray
In “Dorian Gray” all is good on the public face of science but less so within the research field on
account of limited progress in advancing biogerontechnology. Both the public and policy makers
want to believe in a dream and urge scientists to forge ahead. But scientists feel pressured to take
risks and make unorthodox decisions in their research, which leads to some risky research and
unexpected outcomes. Spin sells the public and policy makers a sense of progress. The US and
other governments continue to pour significant amounts of funding into research but with little to
show for it. Yet a sense of optimism in the future remains. Governments support and the public
pursues interim strategies, such as caloric restriction, to slow down aging while awaiting
breakthroughs in biogerontechnology.
Scenario 3: Rebel Science
In “Rebel Science” biogerontechnology fails to realize its full potential and advance to a level that
scientists had once anticipated. Scientists, however, remain confident that it is only a matter of time
before the critical breakthroughs, which push biogerontechnology to the next level, emerge. The
global policy and funding environment remains unconvinced and is cool to heed calls from
scientists for further funding. Scientists seek to compensate for the lack of funding from public
Table 1
BIOGERONTECHNOLOGY: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Science and Technology Commercialization Continuum
Weak Links and Risks New Science World
Limited Scientific and
Technical Rationale
Rebel Science Animal Magic
Global Policy and
Funding
Strong Support
And Public Demand
Dorian Gray Forever Young
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sources through tapping wealthy individuals and technology philanthropists. But desperation and a
lack of accountability and formal oversight forces researchers into some unorthodox situations. The
US government is forced to introduce tough legislation governing research activities, which drives
much of the ongoing research underground or offshore. The biomedical industry sees little
incentive to invest heavily in the field because of the growing restrictions. Experimentation on
humans is unregulated, fails to follow standard ethical guidelines, and clinical applications that
emerge often go unreported such that any knowledge learned is not shared and used to advance
knowledge in the field.
• Potential opportunities. Governance issues loom large. The United States is well positioned to
assume a leadership role in the international science and technology community to establish
guidelines and frameworks governing ethical practices in biogerontechnological research.
Domestically, the United States could pursue and prioritize or earmark available funding for
alternative areas of biomedical research that offer the greatest opportunity to delay the onset and
impact of diseases associated with aging.
• Potential threats. The United States is alarmed by the degree to which international markets and
scientific research remain unregulated. Private money and venture philanthropy pose a
significant challenge to the regulated practice of biogerontechnology research and adherence to
the ethics of biomedical research. Despite international efforts to restrict or ban research
activities, these research initiatives are always sure of finding a safe haven where authorities are
willing to turn a blind eye.
Scenario 4: Forever Young
In “Forever Young” the breakthroughs that scientists envisioned for treating aging as a medical
condition have come to pass. The US academic biomedical research community benefits greatly
from the research and innovation and the resulting technology transfer to the private sector results
in considerable entrepreneurial activity that drives a new era of technology-led economic activity to
boost national economic growth. Governments talk of the longevity dividend that will stem from
the clinical applications and convene international meetings to discuss the challenges in applying
and managing biogerontechnology in society in a controlled and responsible manner. The
implications of advances in biogerontechnology will extend beyond medicine and health care. The
benefits of healthier and more active lifespans will allow people to remain in the labor force and
work longer and to enjoy more active lifestyles. As a result, consumer spending and savings
patterns adjust to reflect changing lifestyle interests. Actuaries would need to make ongoing
upward adjustments to reflect expanding lifespans. The implications of longevity risk would start
to feed into policy making and business decisions as finance and economic strategies adjust
accordingly. Government and private pensions would need to guarantee sufficient resources to
manage the costs of extended life spans, while retirement assets would see a more gradual drawing
down as aging investors live longer. There is a sense of optimism, hope, and possibility in many
global societies that permeates beyond the field of biogerontechnology and feeds into other areas of
the economy and society.
• Potential opportunities. The uptick in investment levels in commercialization activities around
biogerontechnology research pushes the US government into action. Key policy initiatives deal
with legal frameworks for intellectual property protection, regulatory frameworks governing
human clinical safety and evaluation, and consumer education campaigns regarding the
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responsible use of biogerontechnology. US companies are quick to make the strategic
investments in enabling technologies and market infrastructures.
• Potential threats. This scenario could have very significant social and political impacts for
which many policy makers are unprepared. For example, the United States is simply unprepared
for the ideological and cultural backlash against biogerontechnology, which leads to many
tensions and divisions within society. The United States and other countries are left to grapple
with the economic burden that results from unintended consequences of covering payment for
access to medical technologies that guarantee a longer-living and healthier life, and resort to
creating policies that ration or restrict access to biogerontechnologies on the basis of an
individual’s willingness to pay.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward biogerontechnology development, include:
• Scientific evidence that both confirms and disconfirms the current aging theories,
• Global public research funding levels and trends for biogerontechnology research,
• The establishment of non-US centers of biogerontechnology research excellence,
• Successful early models for scientific research and technology commercialization,
• The size and nature of biogerontechnology investments worldwide,
• Position statements about the ethics and practices of biogerontechnology research,
• Consistency in regulatory frameworks governing research and commercialization, and
• The influence of scientific research and applications on public opinion.
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Energy Storage Materials
Why Are Energy Storage Materials Potentially Disruptive?
The term Energy Storage Materials encompasses a wide range of materials and techniques for
storing energy, each with varying levels of potential disruption. This profile focuses on three such
energy storage materials groups?battery materials, ultracapacitors and hydrogen storage materials
(particularly for fuel cells). They have in common the potential to disrupt the way energy is stored
and distributed in two main industry sectors, transportation and portable devices. Within these
energy storage materials groups, both synergy and competitive tension exists. In some
manifestations of their potential disruptions the technologies will work in parallel; in others they
will compete with each other.
The biggest level of disruption that could occur, both in economic terms and in terms of global
socio-economic structure, would be the potential for one of these technologies (or a combination) to
lead to a paradigm shift away from fossil fuels. In this context, one potential scenario is based on a
move to a hydrogen economy. Such a move will largely depend on the ability to generate hydrogen
from a non-petroleum source. It might also be important for hydrogen generated from natural gas
or coal. Such a move will be very dramatic if the source of the hydrogen is water that has been split
by a non-fossil source of electricity, including nuclear, solar, wind, or other alternatives.
Potential Impacts of Energy Storage Materials on US National Power
Depending on the path of the future scenario, energy storage materials could have a substantial
impact on the four elements of national power:
Geopolitical: Energy storage materials could have a profound impact on the geopolitical balance of
power. Some forecasters predict that oil has already or soon will reach its production
peak, just as many countries, such as China and India, are beginning to expand their
economies and place more demand on oil resources. Cheap reliable sources of
alternative energy storage could reduce the demand for oil, particularly for
transportation, though other primary sources of energy (specifically, electricity) will
be necessary to supply the energy to recharge batteries, provide the charge for
ultracapacitors, or generate hydrogen. Reduced oil demand would insulate the United
States from its dependency on foreign sources of oil. On the hand, nations reliant on
petroleum as a major source of revenue would find that they would have to transition
their economies, or risk a substantial reduction in living standards. Such a situation
could destabilize some already fragile regions.
Economic: A transition to a hydrogen economy, and to greater use of other energy storage
materials, would provide a large opportunity in the production of fuel cells and fuel
cell vehicles, hydrogen generation and storage infrastructure, advanced batteries and
ultracapacitor production and materials. From a transportation perspective, gasoline
retailers would have to transition their infrastructure to provide onsite generation and
storage of hydrogen, creating a demand for local high-voltage electricity substations.
Any move away from hybrids to full electric vehicles would be detrimental to
manufacturers of internal combustion engines. Assuming these new sources of
power are as cheap to the US end user (be they auto manufacturers or consumers),
then the transition should be economically positive at a national level, due to the
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reduction in demand for overseas oil (and assuming increased electricity requirements
are from indigenous sources).
Military: The military has a substantial demand for offsite and portable power. Increases in
energy density anticipated through this disruptive technology would provide greater
autonomy of operation for field devices, and might enable remote sensors to have a
greater lifetime. The high bursts of power provided by ultracapacitors can provide
new weapon capabilities.
Cultural: Assuming an ample supply of energy, social cohesion is little impacted by the precise
type of energy source. That situation is changing at the fringes as some small
numbers of consumers choose to purchase higher cost green energy supplies, and
certainly a transition to any new energy technology that would have less
environmental impact would be in tune with consumer concerns. A move to a
hydrogen economy could impact social cohesion as a result of any positive economic
benefit that a reduced reliance on oil provided, in the form of new jobs. Ultimately,
the largest impact on social cohesion would accrue if a hydrogen economy (supported
by other forms of primary electricity generation) was able to mitigate against the
impact of a future world with dwindling oil reserves.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
The key uncertainties in the energy storage materials technology field tend to fall along two major
axes:
• Developments in basic materials science.
• Choices in terms of global national energy policy.
The key uncertainty in materials science is the extent to which progress is made in a wide variety of
materials required for new advanced batteries, ultracapacitors and for efficiently storing hydrogen.
The axis for global national energy policy reflects the choices (and needs) to push alternative fuels,
or to continue and further develop fossil fuels.
On the basis of the two axes of uncertainty, four distinct scenarios seem plausible, including one
that is dark and negative (“Running on Empty”), one that is conservative, having small technology
breakthroughs (“Competitive Conservatism”), and two that have different types of huge technology
breakthroughs (“Super Clean” and “Hydrogen Economy”). We describe each of these scenarios
briefly and detail the opportunities and threats in the two scenarios that reflect similar energy
policies but at the extremes of technological progress.
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Table 2
ENERGY STORAGE MATERIALS: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Energy Storage Materials Science Development
Evolution Revolution
Extension of Fossil Fuel
Sources
Running on Empty Super Clean
Global National Energy
Policy Choices
Widespread Political
Choice to Switch to
Alternatives
Competitive Conservation Hydrogen Economy
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Running on Empty
In “Running on Empty” no breakthroughs occur in solving fundamental problems in energy
technologies. Globally, countries are forced to rely on fossil fuels and either elect not to install
large amounts of nuclear power or fail to do so fast enough. At some point, depending on the
balance between dwindling reserves and expansion, particularly in Asia, economies will begin to
stagnate as the price of oil increases. The population declines as it ages, countries periodically go
to war over energy resources, and conservation is forced on consumers by lack of availability.
Scenario 2: Super Clean
In “Super Clean” technological breakthroughs in clean coal, clean oil, clean oil sands, carbon
sequestration, and biofuels that do not compete with agriculture and food production result in a
high-growth global economy that continues to be fueled by fossil fuels for at least 200 years.
Switching to a hydrogen economy is not necessary and none of the hydrogen generation and storage
technologies are required. Battery and ultracapacitor energy storage technologies are sufficient and
part of the clean fossil fuel economy, transferring and storing energy efficiently from power-
generating units to transportation and portable devices. Energy is available for environmental clean
up, water purification, and infrastructure repair.
Scenario 3: Competitive Conservation
In “Competitive Conservation” lots of small, evolutionary advances in technology enable a
sustainable and active economy, based on conservation of energy. Governments around the world
compete with each other to make enlightened choices in policy to reduce waste of energy (such as
by regulation, promoting low-energy consumption in lighting, green buildings, agriculture, personal
transportation, and IT infrastructure) creating economic activity in the changeover. Imports of
energy-guzzling products are banned, forcing reluctant countries to switch also—or lose
competitiveness. Solar energy and wind power are marginally efficient and installed everywhere,
creating millions of new jobs in installation and services around the world. Population growth
levels off to sustainable levels, declining in some countries. People become conscious of their
carbon footprint and seek to conserve energy. New businesses form around conservation.
Hydrogen storage devices do not achieve the DOE goals, but are sufficient (4 or 5 % by weight) for
hydrogen generated by solar and wind power to be stored in large, central facilities for end uses
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such as fleet vehicles and backup power for telecommunications and computer data centers.
Energy storage technologies see marginal improvements and are able to ease the energy demand on
all energy-consuming products in small ways that add up to enough to be meaningful. Portable
electronic devices, wearables, and implants are partially charged by energy harvesting,
ultracapacitors, and improved batteries.
• Potential opportunities. The United States already leads in many or most of these
“conservation” technologies and has a business economy that can adjust rapidly. In terms of
application, the European Union is quickly moving in this direction, faster than the United States
is, but US activities can easily catch up and regain the initiative. Opportunities lie in creating the
leading-edge technologies and working with China, India, and Russia to help them install US
energy conservation technologies that allow them to sustain growth and to head off potential
future geo-political conflict. US industry gains financially from this leadership and US
leadership and prestige is maintained worldwide.
• Potential threats. Failure of US policymaking could leave the United States at a severe
disadvantage in this scenario. The EU has the policy lead now and is gaining jobs and
experience in these conservation technologies, which could carry over into leadership in selling
products and services to the rapidly developing countries in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin
America. Furthermore, as the United States fails to adapt regulatory and economic policies to
encourage conservation, it remains dependent on expensive forms of energy, included imported
oil and puts US companies at an economic disadvantage from a cost perspective. More
companies will seek to move to low-energy-cost countries, leaving the United States behind.
Although this scenario is relatively peaceful, in terms of global conflict, loss of US prestige and
economic power will lead to internal and external conflicts and bickering. The United States
could become the “Argentina of the 21
st
Century,” declining relatively quickly from its world top
spot in per-capital GDP (as Argentina was in 1905) to a “former wealthy nation” status.
Scenario 4: Hydrogen Economy
In “Hydrogen Economy” big breakthroughs occur in cheap hydrogen generation, cheap,
lightweight, and dense hydrogen storage, and fast and easy hydrogen dispensing technologies.
Solar, wind, clean fossil fuel, biofuel, and even nuclear technologies could be a part of the
hydrogen-generation infrastructure. Fuel cell transportation (cars, trains, ships, planes, and niche
applications, including lift trucks and robots), infrastructure backup power, and fuel cell-powered
portable electronic devices abound globally. Energy is a virtually infinite resource, available to any
country, leading to an explosion of devices, solving of global water shortage problems,
improvements in health in developing countries, an increase in global travel, and an expansion of
space exploration programs.
• Potential opportunities. The United States already is a leader in many of the hydrogen storage
technologies and could continue to be the source of technological breakthroughs. Even where it
is not the first to gain a breakthrough, US industry and individuals will gain from the new
technologies if a rapid build-out of the hydrogen infrastructure takes place, coupled with
environmental regulation and incentives that help industry and individuals to adopt new
products.
• Potential threats. European countries are ahead in much of the hydrogen infrastructure
prototype programs and up to speed in energy storage technologies. Canada and other countries
are also pushing hard on fuel cells and alternative hydrogen-generation technologies. They
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could gain advantage as breakthroughs occur in introducing those technologies into the fast-
growth BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries, leaving the United States at an economic
disadvantage.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward energy storage materials development, include:
• The natural availability and the price of oil. Gradual declines in availability and increases in
prices would increase the decisions to support alternatives; new giant field discoveries might
delay policy decisions to support alternatives,
• Improvements in performance and cost of materials relevant to ultracapacitors, batteries and
hydrogen storage,
• Energy technology choices in BRIC and the European Union. Look for competition for
petroleum, reliance on coal, decision to go nuclear, successful investments to compete in
alternatives, especially solar, wind, and biofuels,
• Global sales volumes of portable electronic devices, including cell phones, PDAs, music
players, and wearable medical devices,
• Trials, production, and sales volumes of hybrids, fuel cell vehicles and ultracapacitor-powered
vehicles,
• Investment and development of nuclear energy and alternative energy technologies, particularly
solar, wind, and biofuels, and
• Investment in energy storage materials and commercial successes by type of material.
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Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals
Why are Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals Potentially Disruptive?
US Department of Energy (DOE) projections indicate that world petroleum demand is set to
increase by 42% between 2004 and 2030, primarily in the transportation sector. Oil-importing
regions—including the United States, Europe, Japan, and China—are becoming increasingly
dependent upon crude-oil supplies from key OPEC countries, but the future reliability of these
supplies is uncertain. Biofuels and bio-based chemicals production technologies represent the only
near-term alternatives to conventional gasoline, diesel-fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks. Crop-
based biofuels are already in wide use, work in today’s vehicles, and require no major investments
in infrastructure for their use (unlike alternatives such as hydrogen). Biofuels also help to address
global-warming concerns by reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from vehicles (on a fuel
life-cycle basis). The United States and a growing number of other countries have already begun a
transition toward biofuels that could ultimately have far-reaching impacts on world energy markets.
Success will depend on the development of new bio-based technologies that can efficiently convert
nonfood biomass resources to fuels and chemical products on a very large scale.
Potential Impacts of Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals on US National Power
Geopolitical: A large-scale move to energy-efficient biofuels could increase US energy security and
ease international competition for world oil supplies and reserves. Conversely, if the
United States does not develop a strong bio-based economy, the country would
become increasingly dependent upon less-than-friendly OPEC countries for a critical
energy resource. The need for a transition could become essential before 2025.
Many analysts believe that worldwide production of conventional crude oil will reach
a peak in this time frame, which could precipitate a major oil crisis and cause oil
prices to reach $100 per barrel or higher. A broader move to biofuels may also be
geopolitically essential for governments to satisfy international and national
commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Military: The development of a significant biofuels and bio-based chemicals economy in the
United States could reduce the likelihood of US involvement in future military
conflicts related to access to dwindling world-oil supplies. The military itself may
increasingly rely on future biofuels that are custom designed for higher performance
than today’s military fuels.
Economic: Global markets for biofuels are already growing rapidly in many countries. Global
manufacturing and sales reached $20.5 billion in 2006 and are projected to grow to
$80 billion by 2016. Biofuels can also provide an economic hedge against higher oil
prices as well as increase certainty of supply (especially for production from domestic
biomass resources) in the event of future oil-supply disruptions. Reducing oil
imports would help improve the US trade balance. It could become extremely
important for the United States to lead in biofuels technologies in the event that an oil
crisis occurs related to peak oil production or other factors. An oil-supply crisis
would likely force a rapid transition to alternative energy sources, and if the United
States fails to develop a significant bio-based economy, it could fall behind other
regions of the world economically. A risk is that the United States could make a huge
investment in biofuels but fail to address potentially cheaper solutions to reduce
petroleum use, such as requiring vehicles with significantly higher fuel efficiency.
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Cultural: A major commitment to biofuels could improve social cohesiveness and be a source
of national pride if, for example, the impacts of global warming become serious. A
strong bio-based economy could also provide significant rural economic-development
opportunities, especially if a broad base of citizens helps to make the new economy a
reality. On the downside, if increasing demand for agricultural biomass to make
biofuels results in significantly higher food prices or negatively affects resources such
as land and water supplies and land ownership, a major move to biofuels could
increase social discontent.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
Key uncertainties that relate to biofuels technology and implementation tend to fall along two major
axes:
• The policy and funding environment
• The rate of technology advancement for enhanced capabilities and lower biofuels costs.
The key uncertainty in the policy and regulatory environment is the degree of commitment to
promote a biofuels economy, which will be strongly influenced by the level of concern about issues
such as energy security, global warming, and crude-oil prices.
The rate of technology advancement will be strongly influenced by the regulatory environment and
the need to address feedstock constraints and reduce costs.
Four scenarios are possible on the basis of those axes. We concentrate on the two extreme
scenarios—”Stalled” and “Biofuels in the Fast Lane”—that highlight the spectrum of possibilities
for how the future could play out through the year 2025. These are disruptive in different ways and
we describe these scenarios in some detail and identify the opportunities and threats for each. We
briefly describe the other two scenarios, “Supported Growth” and “Economic Biofuels,” which
have more intermediate impacts.
Table 3
BIOFUELS AND BIO-BASED CHEMICALS: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Rate of Technology Advancement
Incremental Rapid
Lack of Support Stalled Economic Biofuels
Policy and
Funding
Strong Commitment Supported Growth Biofuels in the Fast Lane
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Supported Growth
In “Supported Growth” advances in biofuels technology have been slow and most production still
relies on relatively expensive food crops for feedstock. Some biofuels markets have seen
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significant growth, however, where governments have continued to mandate their use and provide
subsidies to help make biofuels cost-competitive with conventional fossil fuels. A number of
industrialized and developing countries that have the economic and/or land resources to make a
major dent in dependence on imported crude oil have been willing to make a large public
commitment to biofuels.
Scenario 2: Economic Biofuels
In “Economic Biofuels” the private sector is the main driver of a steadily growing biofuels sector.
Technology breakthroughs have led to the manufacture of large-scale second- and third-generation
biofuels, such as those based on high-growth algae, that are increasingly cost-competitive. Many
governments nurtured the early growth but gradually cut biofuels subsidies as markets became self-
sustaining. The largest biofuels markets emerge in areas with ready access to biomass resources
from wastes and energy crops optimized for biofuels production.
Scenario 3: Stalled
In “Stalled” the vision of a vibrant biofuels economy does not materialize. The United States and
some other governments decide that large biofuels subsidies are not the best use of public monies
and begin to scale back ambitious biofuels targets. Investment tax credits for blending biofuels into
gasoline and diesel at low concentrations remain in place, supported by vociferous corn- and soy-
grower lobbies. But the US government quietly drops ambitious policy targets for the large-scale
use of biofuels to replace gasoline. Crude-oil prices remain relatively high—in the $50-to-$75-per-
barrel range—but environmentally conscious consumers prefer to purchase high fuel-efficiency
hybrid and electric vehicles rather than flex-fuel vehicles—especially because the availability of E-
85 fueling stations remains quite limited. Although governments worldwide (including the US
government) agree to take real action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the use of biofuels is not
a preferred path. Instead, the United States focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the
electricity-generation sector (through cleaner coal technologies and more nuclear power) and
mandates higher efficiency standards for vehicles, buildings, and appliances. Much of the
disenchantment with biofuels is that, despite significant public and private R&D funding through
the early 2010s, second-generation technologies do not advance sufficiently to make cellulosic
ethanol and other new biofuels and bio-based chemicals close to being cost competitive with
petroleum-based fuels. Reliance on crop-based biofuels has led to sustained higher prices for a
range of food products, resulting in a backlash against biofuels by the general public. By 2025,
biofuels represent just 5% of the US transportation fuel pool, only slightly more than the 2% level
in 2006.
• Potential opportunities. The United States could continue R&D to improve biomass feedstocks
and biofuels with no need to take on the risk of rushing new technologies into production before
they are viable. The United States could take a more market-based approach to energy issues
and still improve its international reputation by taking alternative actions to address global
warming. To supplement limited food crop availability for biofuels, the United States could
import lower-cost biofuels from countries such as Brazil and new suppliers.
• Potential threats. The United States could fall behind other regions, notably the European
Union, which is likely to maintain a stronger commitment to developing advanced biofuels, and
China, which needs advanced biofuels to help meet rapidly increasing demand for
transportation fuels. The United States would have less room to maneuver to address periodic
crude-oil–supply disruptions and future upward trends in oil prices, as supplies of
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nonconventional energy supplies eventually dwindle. This would be especially true if US
vehicle-efficiency standards are not aggressive enough. The United States would remain
dependent upon less-than-friendly OPEC oil-producing countries for key energy supplies.
Scenario 4: Biofuels in the Fast Lane
In “Biofuels in the Fast Lane” the US government confronts an increasingly energy-constrained
world that requires new, cleaner, safer, and more secure energy solutions. As conventional crude-
oil production declines, prices spike to $100/barrel and even higher. At the same time, physical
impacts of global warming—especially more severe weather patterns and collapsing fish
populations—demand drastic steps to reduce GHG emissions. Supported by public opinion, the US
government commits to a “Brazil model” of widespread biofuel use and helps to fund new
commercial-scale plants and a flexible fuel infrastructure. By 2020, biorefineries processing
lignocellulosic waste feedstocks are becoming common throughout the country. Technology
breakthroughs have significantly lowered the cost of converting agricultural wastes, and cellulosic
ethanol is now very cost competitive with high-priced conventional gasoline. Ethanol-fueled hybrid
vehicles are in great demand. Newer synthetic “designer fuels” offer even higher performance and
are in wide use in jet-fuel blends. Commodity and specialty chemicals and bioplastics also
increasingly are derived from renewable feedstocks, and producers benefit from more energy-
efficient manufacturing and environmentally friendlier products. By 2025, US petroleum fuel
demand is more than 35 percent below 2007 levels, surpassing the ambitious government goal set
in 2007 to displace 30 percent of gasoline use with biofuels by 2030.
• Potential opportunities. The United States has the opportunity to take the lead in developing
low-net-carbon advanced biotechnologies and other processes to produce second- and third-
generation biofuels and bio-based chemicals. In spite of oil price shocks and tight supplies, the
US economy could benefit from increasing oil independence and increasing entrepreneurial
activity, especially in rural areas. The United States could also gain political influence by
working cooperatively with countries such as China that are also making a major transition
away from petroleum-based fuels. New synthetic fuels with improved performance could be
useful for the military.
• Potential threats. The United States may not be able to move fast enough to enable a major
biofuels economy fully by 2025. A new oil crisis could cause a severe economic recession and
cash-strapped governments and citizens may not be able to afford the new plant capacity,
infrastructure upgrades, and vehicles necessary to enable high-concentration cellulosic-ethanol
fuels. With a major push to produce biofuels, the US government and US oil companies may
lose leverage to obtain necessary oil supplies from OPEC countries, at the expense of countries
such as China and India.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward biofuels and bio-based chemicals technology, include:
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• The timing and nature of biofuels promotion policies in the United States and other regions (e.g.
quotas, subsidies, specific support for domestic or low-emission fuels),
• The timing and nature of global warming policies in the United States and internationally (e.g.
carbon taxes, post-Kyoto Protocol carbon reduction agreements),
• The level of continuing R&D support from the Department of Energy and Department of
Agriculture for the development and commercialization of advanced biofuels technologies
• Crude oil prices and supply,
• Cost and efficiency improvements in biofuels conversion processes,
• The influence of food-versus fuel debates and public opinion on the availability of feedstocks
such as corn and the spread of biofuels (especially in the near term),
• Improvements in feedstock yield and supply resulting from breeding and genetic modification
of plants for very high growth or high biofuels yields,
• Fuel efficiency gains in vehicles and the spread of alternative vehicle technologies such as
hybrid electric, electric, and fuel cell vehicles,
• Development of an E85 ethanol fuel infrastructure (fueling stations and flex-fuel vehicles) to
enable widespread use of high-ethanol-concentration fuels, and
• International trade in biofuels from low-cost suppliers in Brazil, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia,
and other locations.
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Clean Coal Technologies
Why is Clean Coal Technology Potentially Disruptive?
Clean coal technologies would permit coal to function in a carbon constrained regulatory
environment. The development of clean coal technologies is gaining momentum in coal rich
nations, which include major economic and scientific powers, but it is not certain to succeed.
At least two sets of circumstances could indicate that either the development or the failure to
develop clean coal technology would be disruptive to US interests. If the United States—and the
world in general—has a high expectation that clean coal technology will allow the continued or
expanded use of coal as an energy source and this technology cannot be matured, the resulting
environmental and economic impact could be a major challenge to US interests. Conversely, a
successful accelerated and rapid deployment of clean coal technology could pose a major challenge
to other (predominately oil) energy markets; the resulting geopolitical instability could also be a
major challenge to US interests.
The Energy Information Administration expects world energy demand to rise 57% between 2004
and 2030. Nations are looking toward tightening energy supplies amid growing concerns about the
potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change because of anthropogenic greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions. Three of the largest and fastest-growing energy consumers, the United States,
China, and India, along with Russia possess the four largest recoverable coal reserves, representing
67% of known global reserves. Expanded coal production could extend nonrenewable carbon-
based energy systems for one or even two centuries. Coal also emits more carbon dioxide (and
other pollutants) per unit energy recovered than do other fossil fuels like oil or natural gas, making
coal one of the least environment-friendly energy options today. The technical or commercial
success of technologies that enable these coal reserves to remain a viable source of energy while
becoming more environmentally friendly may be very desirable to the United States, but success is
by no means certain. The possible opportunities afforded by having clean coal technologies make a
US failure to develop this technology disruptive to US interests
3
.
Clean coal technologies include an array of related technologies to improve efficiency, lower
emissions of harmful pollutants, and provide fuels and chemical feedstocks from available
resources. The most disruptive clean-coal technology comes at the end of the coal cycle, carbon
capture and sequestration (CCS); the most developed technologies, like gasification, come earlier in
the cycle. CO
2
emissions from power generation are the leading domestic contributor to
greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere. Sulfur, particle, and NO
x
emissions from coal-
driven power plants are lower than ever before, but coal power generates more carbon dioxide per
unit energy than all other major power sources. True clean-coal power depends on the effectiveness
of CCS; from an environmental perspective, coal derived energy is only truly clean with CCS.
Successfully developed clean coal (with CCS) would allow the United States (or any coal-rich
nation) to rely safely on an abundant domestic energy resource. However, application of successful
CCS is by no means certain to occur before 2025.
Potential Impacts of Clean Coal Technologies on US National Power
3
An additional possibility is that foreign governments or multinational firms would develop the technology. In such a
case, it would be advantageous to the United States to insist on the use of such technology by US utilities and energy
providers. Although this may increase the cost of using the new technology, we assess that to be a minor burden overall
to the US economy. We do not believe there would be a foreign interest in denying or withholding the technology when
the market for it would be substantial.
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Geopolitical: Extending the usefulness of coal reserves would lessen dependence on foreign oil
sources, ease pressure on energy reserves, and give renewable energy sources more
time to develop into significant contributors to the domestic energy profile. Oil-rich
nations will lose some geopolitical influence without the world’s largest economy as
a beholden consumer. Alternatively, without developing domestic energy sources,
the United States may find itself continuously dependent on unstable and often
unfriendly nations for a vital and increasingly scarce energy resource.
Military: Reliance on foreign oil from unstable regions of the world has required military
intervention in the past and will likely do so again if the global energy landscape and
geopolitical situation remain unchanged. The United States, Russia, China, and other
growing world powers could avoid military engagements to protect global oil energy
reserves by extending the usefulness of their expansive coal reserves.
Economic: A convergence of public interest, technological development, and the promise of
environmental policy changes has dramatically increased growth in clean energy
technologies. Additionally, expanding domestic energy sources to lessen (or
eliminate) the energy trade deficit will remove stress on the US economy. Clean coal
also provides a reserve strategy in case developments in renewable fuels do not come
to fruition. Alternatively, the economic consequences of global warming may be
much higher than the incremental costs of clean-coal systems or the economic cost
and burden of implementing clean coal technology may degrade US and global
economic performance.
Cultural: Clean coal may offer a near- to midterm pathway toward lessening the rift between
the industrial sector and citizens concerned about global warming. Carbon capture
and sequestration is the most important component toward this end. Economic
growth coupled with responsible environmental stewardship will add cohesion and a
sense of pride to a population that views these two areas as incompatible. Successful
development and deployment of clean coal technologies would globally enhance the
United States’ technical reputation.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
Key uncertainties affecting the successful integration of clean-coal technologies can fit along two
major axes:
• What will be the driving policy and funding environment, economic growth or
climate/environmental protection?
• What will be the rate of technological advancement for clean coal technologies, rapid or
incremental?
The uncertainty of the policy and funding environment is strongly influenced by concerns about
issues including climate change, economic development, energy security, and natural gas and crude
oil prices relative to coal.
Although the rate of technology advancement will have some dependence on supportive policies
and funding levels, it will also depend on the success or failure of other non- or minimally carbon-
contributing energy sources, including nuclear, biofuels, solar, and wind.
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Although four scenarios are possible with these axes, we concentrate on the two that perhaps
present the most immediate challenges for the United States (“Leave it in the Ground” and “King
Coal”). These are disruptive but for different reasons and we detail the opportunities and threats for
each of these scenarios. We also briefly describe the other two scenarios: The case of high
economic emphasis and incremental clean coal technology development (“Wealth Not Health”)
would ultimately lead to an environmental disaster. The scenario with policy and funding driven by
environmental concerns and rapid development of clean coal technologies (“Act Now”) would not
be as disruptive as clean coal technology matures at such a rate to minimize any adverse economic
impact.
Table 4
CLEAN-COAL TECHNOLOGIES: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Rate of Technology Advancement
Incremental Rapid
Grow the Economy! Wealth Not Health King Coal
Policy and
Funding
Protect the Climate! Leave it in the Ground Act Now
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Wealth Not Health
In “Wealth Not Health” power derived from coal generates more CO
2
per unit energy than any
other major source of energy. The bulk of the scientific community believes that the effect of
uncontrolled expansion of GHG emission will eventually alter the Earth’s climate resulting in
unprecedented economic and environmental damage (see “Leave it in the Ground”). Another
urgent concern is that coal power plants emit mercury, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and
particulate matter along with other pollutants at rates intolerable to public safety. As seen in the
case of TXU Energy in 2007, many US communities will not readily support expansion of coal
power without a paradigm shifting achievement in emissions control technology.
Scenario 2: Act Now
The main impacts of this scenario will be the oil and natural gas industry facing new competition,
and the geopolitical shift in attention from oil-rich countries (see “King Coal”). The remainder of
the United States and much of the world economy will enjoy the benefits of a relatively seamless
transition to operating on clean energy.
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Scenario 3: Leave it in the Ground
In “Leave it in the Ground” the hope of clean coal technologies does not materialize but regulations
aimed at stemming GHG emissions place severe limitations on the coal industry. Carbon capture
and sequestration in deep saline formations proves to be impractical at the scale necessary for
reaching the DOE’s goal of sequestering 90% of carbon emissions from a coal power plant.
Investment in biofuels, solar, next-generation nuclear, wind, and tidal energy result in carbon-free
energy alternatives that are cost-competitive with conventional coal under the carbon-penalizing
regulatory regime. Regulations never go to the extreme of shutting down plants, but permitting and
building new coal plants proves too costly to justify to investors. Integrated gasification combined
cycle (IGCC) facilities turn out to be useful for producing hydrogen gas, but still cost too much to
operate as power plants with unreliable gas turbines, resulting in too much equipment downtime.
Coal to liquid transportation fuels prove to be too carbon intensive and are outmoded by the
availability of inexpensive biofuels from domestically grown nonfood crops. The role of coal in the
US energy landscape declines (from about half of all US electricity generation in 2007) as more
alternative energy sources come online and more outdated coal power plants reach the end of their
life cycle and are mothballed. Coal producing states including Wyoming, Kentucky, West Virginia,
and Pennsylvania face economic downturns as domestic energy dollars shift to other areas of the
country, that benefit from the growing renewable energy market (Silicon Valley, coastal and
farming states). China and India, having agreed, under pressure, to the stemming of their GHG
emissions are now faced with severe economic challenges. The regime in Beijing is threatened.
GHGs continue to grow as the planned retrofit of coal plants built in China and the United States
through 2015 now are impractical. Although the growth of clean non-coal technologies has been
impressive, it also has not been sufficient, and by 2020 it is obvious a quick, massive, and costly
transition to nuclear power will be required to protect the climate. The US and global economies
are stressed by the need for such massive recapitalization in the midst of coping with an ever
increasing hostile climate environment.
• Potential opportunities. The United States can profit from exporting non-coal clean-energy
products and technologies. Developing nations not subject to restrictions on carbon emissions
may also seek to buy US coal. The United States could serve as an energy exporter and benefit
from countries that do not yet have access to noncarbon alternatives. Research in clean coal
may continue in an attempt to salvage US coal use and as an opportunity for technology
developers and coal producers to sustain coal exports as developing countries adopt low-carbon
standards. Although not useful for fuel purposes, CTL may still offer economic advantages
over oil-based petrochemicals in an unstable oil market.
• Potential threats. If China and India refuse to adopt low-carbon standards, they will retain an
even greater cost advantage in manufacturing over low-carbon states than they do today. As
both countries develop and reach increased standards of living for their very large populations,
dramatically increasing energy generation from outdated means would accelerate the buildup of
atmospheric greenhouse gases. Researchers predict that unchecked accumulation of GHG will
lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, which can cause extensive economic
and social damage. The expanded use of nuclear power raises increased risks for nuclear
proliferation and the spread of nuclear weapons. High US reliance upon nuclear power removes
all moral legitimacy for opposing the development of nuclear power by other states.
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Scenario 4: King Coal
In “King Coal,” rapid economic growth in the 2008-2015 timeframe has caused CO
2
emissions to
increase significantly but has also provided private funds (from profits) to develop clean coal
technologies. Success with CCS has been particularly impressive. New coal power plants are
constructed between 2008 and 2015 without carbon capture and sequestration capabilities, but with
the ability to retrofit. By 2020 retrofits can be done at minimal costs. Driven by rapid economic
growth, oil prices have been very high, and other clean coal technologies (coal to liquid and coal to
gas [CTG]) are developed as competitive alternatives to oil. Breakthroughs in clean coal
technology, occurring around 2020, are followed by regulations requiring their implementation.
Energy security becomes a US mantra, and CTL and CTG development accelerates. The start-up
costs and regulatory hurdles prove too much for investors who have been interested in new nuclear
capacity as an alternative to coal. Solar panels cover an increasing number of US rooftops, thanks
to technology and manufacturing advances and government subsidies. Wind power also advances
although it is limited to certain wind-rich geographic regions because of opposition from wildlife
and coastline-preservation groups. But combined solar and wind power doesn’t exceed 10% of US
electricity generation by 2025. Coal use has grown to account for nearly two-thirds of US
electricity generation, and hydrogen (from natural gas and coal via IGCC) and coal-based diesel
provide a significant and growing percentage of transportation fuels. After 2020 oil markets
plummet. Major oil exporters face severe economic challenges as their single commodity
economies collapse. Despite the resulting internal and regional instabilities, the United States, with
energy independence, shows little interest in engaging with the ensuing problems. China and India
readily accept the clean coal technology. Russia has wisely saved oil revenues from the previous
rise in oil prices and has diversified its economy. Because coal resources are finite, development
continues with other non-coal clean energy technologies.
As the coal industry moves forward beyond 2025 with near elimination of environmental concerns
from newly built coal plants, significant long-term potential exists for sustained, clean, domestic
energy supplies.
• Potential opportunities. The United States, China, and India benefit from expanded use of
domestic energy supplies. They see a long-term means for using their coal reserves and could
benefit from technology sharing arrangements in clean coal. The United States could also profit
from exporting coal and eventually clean-coal products and technologies. The United States
could serve as an energy exporter and benefit from countries that do not yet have access to
noncarbon alternatives.
• Potential threats. Without leadership from the United States in GHG emission reduction
through development of clean coal technologies, China and India will most certainly continue to
prioritize economic growth over environmental concerns, which would maintain the
environmental risk posed in the “Leave it in the Ground” scenario. Additionally, although
extensive known coal reserves exist in the United States, many are difficult to recover. This
difficulty may result in a “peak coal” effect that even with development of clean coal
technologies sees a time when all easily recoverable coal is consumed. The United States
would still require alternative energy sources to remain independent. Russia, with the second-
largest known reserves, could find itself in an increasingly influential role as an even more
important energy supplier than it is today. Regional and local instabilities coupled with a US
disinterest in engagement with them may allow new ideologies and threats to fester out of
control. The rich (coal countries) get richer and the poor (non-coal countries) take the double
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hits from changing climate and a difficulty in economically competing with the giants, the
United States, China, Russia, and India.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward clean coal technology development, include:
• Global demand for energy,
• Development of other carbon- and non-carbon-based alternative energy sources and their
economic viability (for example: bio-fuels, solar energy, wind),
• The price of oil in comparison with that of alternative energy,
• US government policy regulating the emission of greenhouse gases, increasing energy efficiency,
and investing in and subsidizing alternative and renewable energy sources, and
• Successful sequestration of CO
2
through energetically and economically viable means.
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Service Robotics
Why Are Service Robotics Potentially Disruptive?
Robotics and its enabling technologies have already advanced to the stage where single-application
robots and related systems (including autonomous vehicles) are being implemented in a wide range
of civil and defense applications. Although a great deal of development is still required in terms of
intelligence for robots, effective artificial intelligence (AI) and behavioral algorithms, many of the
building blocks for disruptive robot systems are either already in place, or will be by 2025. The
include hardware (e.g. sensors, actuators, and power systems) and software (e.g. robot platforms).
Key disruptive applications of service robotics will include uses in domestic and defense settings.
In addition, robotics technology has the potential to diffuse into other application areas, for
example, human augmentation and autonomous vehicles.
Potential Impacts of Service Robotics on US National Power
Robots are designed to replace humans in a variety of applications, with each application having
potentially far-reaching implications. Although truly intelligent robots are unlikely to emerge by
2025 (the key barrier being AI), robotics technology still has the potential to impact the four
elements of national power:
Geopolitical: Robotics is unlikely to transform geopolitics unless a massive advance in AI
technologies occurs. However, the use of unmanned systems for terrorist activities
could emerge by 2025 because the availability of simple robot platforms will increase
significantly.
Economic: The global market for nonindustrial robotics could reach $15 billion by 2015. While
it will be an important new industry, it is unlikely to significantly impede or aid the
economic development of the United States.
Military: Of all the four elements of national power, robotics is likely to have the greatest
impact on the military element. Many robots and similar unmanned systems are
already being implemented, although their capabilities are still limited. By 2025,
unmanned systems with a much greater level of autonomy will have been
implemented, and closely related/synergistic technologies (e.g. human augmentation
systems) will extend the performance of soldiers significantly. The United States is
likely to remain the world leader in this area.
Cultural: Robotics could influence a number of key areas of life that affect social cohesion.
The development and implementation of robots for elder-care applications, and the
development of human-augmentation technologies, mean that robots could be
working alongside humans in looking after and rehabilitating people by 2025
(particularly in Japan and South Korea). However, over-reliance on automated
devices such as domestic robots could increase obesity levels. A change in domestic
and social responsibilities and a change in domestic employment requirements could
affect lower income service-oriented workers.
The opportunity exists for the United States (and US companies) to continue to be a world leader in
robotics technologies, particularly for defense and domestic applications. The opportunity also
exists for the United States and its allies to lead in the implementation of military robots and
associated technologies. In addition, US researchers must continue to press ahead with research
relating to AI and human-robot interaction, to avoid falling behind Japan and South Korea. Chinese
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players will compete effectively with U.S., South Korean, European, and (most notably) Japanese
companies in domestic and leisure robots by 2025—China is also developing military robots.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
The key uncertainties associated with the future of robotics technologies can be demonstrated using
two major axes:
• Technology advancement
• Global interest and funding.
The key uncertainty along the technology advancement axis comprises the technical risks and
knowledge gaps that will either move toward useful robots with commercial applications or toward
an environment of many weak links with no discernable products. Artificial intelligence in robots
is the key differentiator.
The global interest and funding axis will be influenced by technical progress. Governments and
industry players will either be fully supportive and enthusiastic about robotics, or be cautious,
perhaps removing funding and cutting R&D programs.
Using these axes, four scenarios—”Niche Products,” “Loss of Patience,” “Quasi-Autonomy,” and
the “Autonomous World”—can highlight how the future could play out through 2025. We describe
each of these scenarios briefly and detail the opportunities and threats in the two scenarios that
reflect the extremes of technological and commercial progress. These axes and scenarios are
highlighted in Table 5.
Table 5
SERVICE ROBOTICS: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Technology Advancement
Weak Links Positive Shifts
Weakening of
Government and
Industrial Interest
Niche Products Lost Patience
Interest and
Funding
Support, Funding,
and Regulation
Quasi-Autonomy Autonomous World
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Lost Patience
Although major developments occur in several major enabling technologies, notably in terms of AI,
through 2025, these developments occur too late to generate enough enthusiasm among key
robotics stakeholders. Instead of commercialization of robots per se, advances in enabling
technologies are often quickly transferred to other products and services, especially vehicles and
consumer electronics. The lack of an integrated approach limits the overall impact of some
significant advances in robotics technology, and low-cost manufacturing is unrealistic. Although
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some autonomous robots do see use in some applications (notably for defense applications), robots
are still too expensive for many application areas. In general, the structure of the robotics industry
remains fairly static.
Scenario 2: Quasi-Autonomy
In “Quasi-Autonomy” we see only steady progress in key enabling technologies relating to robotics.
In particular, the development of advanced computing technologies and cognitive-robotics R&D
does not enable a major shift in intelligent robotics. Nevertheless, advances in other (some would
say, less crucial) technologies occur, and simple robot systems start to become extremely popular in
home applications. This commercial success drives interest in funding robotics R&D, and key
players start to roll out affordable robots. International standards are developed, and some
consolidation occurs in the nonindustrial robotics industry. Technology-transfer into other
applications continues, and assisted vehicles become almost omnipresent.
Scenario 3: Niche Products
In “Niche Products” predicted advances in robotics and its myriad enabling technologies never
emerge. In particular, R&D relating to artificial intelligence and cognitive science does not move
fast enough. Although some progress is made, any small breakthroughs are offset by the discovery
of new problems and barriers to progress. Research relating to AI becomes nebulous. The lack of
progress in robotics is not helped by progress in consumer electronics, connected homes, and home
automation. People do not need robots to help them. Robotics continues to struggle to find enough
viable applications to sustain a growing industry. Interest in funding robotics R&D lowers, and key
players follow Sony’s lead and abandon advanced robotics R&D. International standards are not
developed. Some consolidation occurs in the nonindustrial robotics industry, but in general the
structure of the industry remains static, with key players producing specific defense-, domestic-,
transport- and leisure-related products. Low-cost manufacturing becomes the key to continued
growth.
• Potential opportunities. The United States is well positioned to assume a leadership role in the
development of robots for niche applications, especially military robots, and its players continue
to lead in this area. While funding is cut for some high-level R&D activities, funding becomes
concentrated around the development of key strategic technologies, such as UCVs and wearable
robotics. This expertise leads to the United States having a clear advantage over many of its
enemies in conflicts of many different types. By 2020, the number of US soldiers killed in
combat has been reduced significantly by the adoption of unmanned systems.
• Potential threats. Although the United States continues to be a world leader in defense
robotics, robotics technology in general has not moved on enough for this strategic advantage to
be critical. Although the United States is well positioned to defeat many types of threat via the
use of unmanned systems (especially guerilla tactics), other countries also start to adopt
unmanned systems to bolster their forces and catch up. Problems emerge in other application
areas. iRobot faces such competition from both legitimate and counterfeit competitors in China
that it sells its domestic-robotics business in 2015. The lack of support for advanced R&D
means that key US centers of excellence and leaders of robotics R&D (Carnegie Mellon and
MIT) have a significantly reduced profile.
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Scenario 4: Autonomous World
In “Autonomous World” several large advances occur in key enabling technologies relating to
robotics. In particular, the development of advanced computing technologies and the successful
completion of initial cognitive-robotics R&D enables a paradigm shift in intelligent robotics.
Although advanced intelligent robots are still too expensive for most people to afford, robots are
starting to be used for some key applications. In Japan, many robots are used to look after elderly
people, and robots perform many difficult or repetitive jobs. In addition, these advances have
resulted in a great deal of technology-transfer into other applications. By 2020, even a simple
leisure robot can help with some small tasks around the home (such as home security and tidying
up). Crucially, robots have become a “must have” item for many people and a successful
consumer-robotics industry emerges. In addition, other technologies benefit from this progress,
autonomous vehicles become commonplace.
• Potential opportunities. With key developments and breakthroughs in robotics occurring at
their universities and thus holding the core patents to the commercialization of some research,
the United States and Japan remain in the driver’s seat of the subsequent commercialization
activity—with Europe and South Korea following close behind. The US academic research
community benefits greatly from follow-on research. The resulting technology transfer to the
private sector results in considerable entrepreneurial activity that provides a new era of
technology-led economic activity to boost the economy. US companies continue to invest in
robotics and associated technologies, and global standards for robot implementation emerge.
The US military meets and exceeds its targets (set in the mid 2000s) for the implementation of
unmanned systems. Robots can replace human workers in a number of skilled manufacturing
roles, boosting the competitiveness of U.S.-based manufacturing (also the case in Japan) in
general.
• Potential threats. This scenario could have some economic and demographic impacts that
policy makers are unprepared for. With robots having the ability to replace humans in skilled
roles, unemployment becomes more of a problem as manual labor starts to become outdated.
The increasing competitiveness of completely automated manufacturing in Japan and the United
States triggered a slowdown in the growth of manufacturing in China, and the specter of
economic collapse hangs over the region. In the United States, homes and cars have
significantly increased in complexity due to all the automation, countering reductions in the
power consumption of individual devices and also affecting recycling efforts. Extensive
automation has not helped solve the problem of obesity; indeed many commentators argue it is
a major contributor to obesity. In addition, the implementation of advanced robots for security
applications (including micro robots and UAVs) leads to social tensions and disruption in some
countries.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward service robotics technology development, include:
• The size and nature of robotics investments in the United States,
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• Players involved in robotics R&D. Watch for either another key player to follow Sony’s lead
and abandons robotics altogether, or for a new player to follow Microsoft and invest heavily in
robotics,
• Global levels of funding for robotics research, in particular, whether investment continues to
rise or is cut,
• Toy becomes tool. The point when a toy robot has the ability to perform a useful task within
the home (for example, retrieving an object for the user),
• The establishment of centers of excellence in robotics research outside the United States and
models for research and commercialization,
• The completion of initial (international) research programs for the development of cognitive
robots,
• The development of noninvasive brain-machine interfaces,
• The launch of Chinese designed and built robots for domestic, service-sector, and defense
applications,
• Development of unmanned vehicles with sliding autonomy for both civil and defense
applications, and
• The development and implementation of national and international standards for service,
domestic, and military robots.
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The Internet of Things
Why is the Internet of Things Potentially Disruptive?
Individuals, businesses, and governments are unprepared for a possible future when Internet nodes
reside in such everyday things as food packages, furniture, paper documents, and more. Today’s
developments point to future opportunities and risks that will arise when people can remotely
control, locate, and monitor everyday things. Popular demand combined with technology advances
could drive widespread diffusion of an Internet of Things (IoT) that could, like the present Internet,
contribute invaluably to our economy. But to the extent that everyday objects become information-
security risks, the IoT could distribute those risks far more widely than the Internet has to date.
Potential Impacts of the Internet of Things on US National Power
If the United States executes wisely, the IoT could work to the long-term advantage of the domestic
economy and to the US military. Streamlining—or revolutionizing—supply chains and logistics
could slash costs, increase efficiencies, and reduce dependence on human labor. Ability to fuse
sensor data from many distributed objects could deter crime and asymmetric warfare. Ubiquitous
positioning technology could locate missing and stolen goods. On the other hand, we may be
unable to deny access to networks of sensors and remotely-controlled objects by enemies of the
United States, criminals, and mischief makers. Foreign manufacturers could become both the
single-source and single-point-of-failure for mission-critical Internet-enabled things. Manufacturers
could also become vectors for delivering everyday objects containing malicious software that
causes havoc in everyday life. An open market for aggregated sensor data could serve the interests
of commerce and security no less than it helps criminals and spies identify vulnerable targets.
Thus, massively parallel sensor fusion may undermine social cohesion if it proves to be
fundamentally incompatible with Fourth-Amendment guarantees against unreasonable search. By
2025, social critics may even charge that Asia’s dominance of the manufacturing of things—and the
objects that make up the Internet of Things—has funded the remilitarization of Asia, fueled
simmering intra-Asian rivalries, and reduced US influence over the course of geopolitical events.
Future Scenarios and Potential Impacts on the United States
When considering the spectrum of possibilities for the state of the IoT in 2025, the key uncertainties
span a number of unresolved issues that fall along two major axes:
• The timing of developments (slow versus fast)
• The depth of penetration (niches versus ubiquity).
In terms of timing, just as the Internet and mobile telephony grew rapidly after their incubation
periods, the IoT could emerge relatively rapidly if, on balance, the preponderance of conditions
yields favorable policies, technological progress, and business collaboration. Or the IoT could arise
more slowly if, on balance, conditions are less favorable in these dimensions.
In terms of depth of penetration, just as the Internet and mobile telephony penetrated deeply into the
fabric of developed nations, the IoT could pervade everyday life if, on balance, the preponderance
of conditions yields an enthusiastic public that uses its pocketbook to express strong market
demand. Alternatively, if those demand signals do not materialize—for example if the public
perceives costs, disadvantages, and risks that outweigh perceived benefits—then the IoT may
remain limited to industrial, commercial, and government niches. Yet even those niches could
include benefits and harms that would significantly affect the United States.
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On the basis of these two axes of uncertainty, four scenarios highlight the spectrum of possibilities
for how the future could play out until 2025. Whether fast and widespread, or slow and niche-
driven, the emergence of the IoT has the potential to affect US interests. We focus on the
opportunities and threats that the two extreme scenarios present to the United States: Important
risks and advantages will arise even in the “Connected Niches” scenario, which represents
moderately-paced opportunistic developments of IoT technology. At the other extreme, “Ambient
Interaction” highlights the implications of a rapid and deep penetration of information-
communications technology into everyday objects—a scenario that is sufficiently plausible that its
dramatic risks and advantages deserve consideration. We also describe briefly “Fast Burn” and
“Slowly But Surely,” which represent the middle ground among the four scenarios.
Table 6
THE INTERNET OF THINGS: FUTURE SCENARIOS
Depth of Penetration
Vertical Applications Widespread
Expedited Fast Burn Ambient Interaction
Timing of
Developments
Evolutionary Connected Niches Slowly But Surely
Source: SRI Consulting Business Intelligence.
Scenario 1: Fast Burn
In “Fast Burn” the IoT develops rapidly but in a limited fashion, and fails to sustain its momentum.
Although impacts become quite significant in particular application areas (industrial automation,
health care, and security), the IoT doesn’t fulfill the promise of becoming pervasive (and thus is of
limited importance to everyday lifestyles, business operations, and the conduct of government).
Ubiquitous positioning technology never materializes as military concerns about the risks of
terrorists gaining access to improved geopositioning combine with inadequate local-government
funding for emergency-service positioning. In this scenario, IoT technology confers similar risks
and benefits to US interests to those experienced in “Connected Niches,” but neither the risks nor
the benefits to US interests inherent in “Ambient Interaction.”
Scenario 2: Slowly But Surely
In “Slowly But Surely” the IoT becomes pervasive, but not until 2035 or so. Outcomes are
somewhat similar to those of “Ambient Interaction,” but there are substantial differences. The
relatively slow development of the technology gives businesses and governments time to assimilate
developments, allaying the most disruptive risks. Many risks remain, but the sheer complexity of
technology in 2035 makes the IoT less accessible to hacking by mischief-makers. Nevertheless, the
most motivated malefactors and enemies of the United States can exploit the IoT in ways that are
similar to those experienced in “Ambient Interaction,” and benefits to US interests do not
materialize as dramatically as they do in “Ambient Interaction.”
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Scenario 3: Connected Niches
In “Connected Niches” the IoT evolves along application pathways that promise rapid payback and
that can overcome resistance and indifference. Demand is commensurate with evolutionary but not
revolutionary cost reductions, moderate technology progress that leaves some problems largely
unsolved. Industries show reluctance to fully collaborate. Policies express at best a benign neglect
for the potential advantages and, at worst, discriminate against innovation in favor of grandfathered
interests. Even in 2025, positioning technology remains limited to outdoor use and many individual
items lack RFID tags. Nevertheless, innovations encourage adoption of connected everyday objects
and sensor networks in security, logistics, healthcare, document management, inventory
management, fleet management, industrial automation, and robotics. In short, connected everyday
devices are common in workplaces and military operations but not in households. Similarly, sensor
networks mainly reside in workplaces and public places. Connected everyday objects and sensor
networks deliver significant value to the economy and significant efficiencies to military
organizations but also introduce significant vulnerabilities as new pathways for exploitation become
available to mischief makers, criminals, and enemies of the United States. As niches grow, some
interconnect, introducing unexpected interactions—some synergistic, others counterproductive.
• Potential opportunities. The United States gains short-term economic advantages by adopting
technologies that streamline commercial logistics and industrial automation, the combined effect
of which lowers costs and boosts corporate profits. When retailers choose to keep RFID at the
pallet level, technology suppliers aggressively seek and find alternative growth pathways via
vertical-market opportunities. Airports and other public-transit hubs become venues for large-
scale sensor networks that support the missions of private-security and public-safety agencies.
For recognizing patterns of behavior indicating ill intent, software helps but does not reduce the
need for human observers and analysts. Similarly, the IoT deters theft and helps locate missing
goods, albeit indoor location is limited to perimeter-secured environments. Many hospitals and
long-term care facilities become high-tech havens, resulting in significantly improved qualities
of care. Two key niches—fleet management and document management—provide growth
pathways for the IoT that confer decisive advantages over traditional approaches. Government
and commercial operators of vehicle fleets find substantial value in advanced vehicle diagnostics
and prognostics, enabling maintenance as-needed rather than on a schedule, concurrently
yielding both reduced costs and increased reliability. Also, as solution prices fall, by 2020 paper
documents and publications as well as electronic substitutes for paper—e-books, smartcards, and
other devices—commonly contain RFID tags, enabling automation of many formerly tedious and
time-consuming processes.
• Potential risks. The IoT’s advantages to the US economy are moderated by trade imbalances
that favor the adding of value to everyday things by overseas manufacturers. First responders
have poorer geolocation capability than terrorists (who use real-time kinematic and/or satellite-
based augmentation solutions that are far less expensive to a small cell of individuals than to
large public safety agencies). The IoT’s contributions to physical security come at the cost of a
high rate of false positive and false negative detections, so that while people consider that the
cost-benefit balance is favorable, it is only marginally so; thus, depth of support is shallow.
Similarly, while the IoT proves to be a boon for healthcare overall, some hospitals and long-term
care facilities reduce costs by trading away the “care” in healthcare in favor of surveillance and
restrictive access-control policies. While the IoT is decisively beneficial for vehicle maintenance
and document management, serious risks and unavoidable annoyances accompany even these
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applications. A host of risks accompany people’s overconfidence in technical solutions, often at
the neglect of common sense.
Scenario 4: Ambient Interaction
In “Ambient Interaction” the IoT arises rapidly and pervasively, favored by technology progress,
business collaboration, and innovation-friendly policies. Strong demand arises across several major
sectors of the economy, as technological wizardry combined with creative business developments
stimulate people’s appetites for killer applications that reduce labor and tedium, confer peace of
mind, and blur the lines between work, play, and commerce. Connected everyday objects and
sensor networks are common in workplaces, public places, and households. By 2017, walk-through
checkout procedures are the norm for retailing, and nationwide positioning technology is in place,
including indoors. Strategic initiatives have ensured that the United States enjoys long-term
economic and military advantages. Nevertheless, great risks accompany great benefits as pervasive
computing introduces equally pervasive vulnerabilities. Just as the Internet aggravated the risks of
cyberwarfare, spam, identity theft, and denial-of-service attacks, connected everyday objects
become targets for malicious software that causes everyday devices to fail or spy. Sensor networks
become channels for unauthorized surveillance by mischief makers, criminals, and enemies of the
United States.
• Potential opportunities. Geopolitical advantages arise as the United States uses sensor
networks to foil terrorists and asymmetrical warriors. The US military gains long-term
advantage by quickly streamlining operations and adopting strategic initiatives for continuous
innovation, specifically for the purpose of sustaining that advantage. The United States also
gains long-term economic advantages by embracing technologies (notably, item-level RFID and
indoor location) that concurrently streamline commercial logistics and add value to physical
products, the combined effect of which stimulates GDP. In fact, the pervasive IoT enables
logistics to undergo a revolution rather than merely streamlining. By 2025, robotic supply
chains are common and considered more secure and less prone to human tampering than
traditional shipping and receiving. At ports, containers report their contents to heavy
equipment, which routes goods to trucks automatically; at distribution points, pallets and
forklifts similarly communicate and route goods which arrive in stores largely untouched by
human hands. RFIDs in individual food packages drive popular adoption of RFID readers in
cell phones that provide an indication of food origins and provenance. Makers of other
packaged goods leverage the universality of RFID readers in cell phones. A combination of
useful advice and marketing gimmicks yields a remarkable mix of “advertainment” and social
benefits, such as cell phones that double as displays for multilingual user manuals and recycling
instructions. Individuals enthusiastically adopt objects having embedded positioning capability,
dramatically reducing the incidence of misplaced and stolen goods.
• Potential risks. The incidental risks mentioned in the Connected Niches scenario (above)
threaten to multiply by an order of magnitude. As the United States increases its reliance on the
IoT, supply disruptions will yield operational disruptions. Asia’s role as single-source
manufacturing center establishes a single point of failure for mission-critical materiel when new
vehicles arrive on US shores “contaminated” by malware. Terrorists can exploit sensor
networks, whose encryption technology threatens to lag far behind the cracking capabilities of
East- and North-European teenagers equipped with massively-multicore laptop computers. The
same corporate and government misunderstanding of security issues that yielded email-
propagated viruses and spam-generating “zombie” computers could end up providing the means
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for criminals and mischief makers to exploit connected everyday objects through lax security
systems.
Signposts to Monitor
Scenarios exist because of the uncertainty that is inherent with any view of the future. Determining
which scenario best mirrors reality at any one time depends on careful assessment of reliable
information and knowledge and monitoring various signposts that would indicate the direction and
pace with which any field of uncertainty (in this case, relative to enabling the disruptive potential of
a technology to US interests) is advancing. Key variables, which, if positive, would indicate
environments that are supportive toward development of the Internet of Things, include:
• The size and nature of demand for expedited logistics in commerce and military organizations,
• The effectiveness of initial waves of IoT technology in reducing costs, thereby creating
conditions for diffusion into vertical application areas including civilian government operations,
law enforcement, healthcare, and document management,
• The ability of devices located indoors to receive geolocation signals, possibly, distributing such
signals by leveraging available infrastructures (cell towers, broadcasters, and other means),
• Closely related technological advances in miniaturization and energy-efficient electronics,
including reduced-power microcomputers and communications methods, energy-harvesting
transducers, and improved microbatteries,
• Efficient use of spectrum, including cost-effective solutions for wide-area communications at
duty cycles that are much smaller (e.g., the equivalent of a few minutes per month) than those of
cell phones (averaging many minutes per day), and
• Advances in software that act on behalf of people, and software that effectively fuses (“makes
sense of”) sensor information from disparate sources.
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Abbreviations
The following abbreviations are used in this Report:
AI artificial intelligence
BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, and China
BTL biomass-to-liquids
CCS carbon capture and sequestration
cm centimeter
CNT carbon nanotube
CTG coal to gas
CTL coal to liquids
DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
DNA deoxyribonucleic acid
DOE Department of Energy (United States)
EDLC electrochemical double layer capacitor
EU European Union
EV electric vehicle
FCC Federal Communications Commission (United States)
FCS Future Combat Systems
FFV flex-fuel vehicles
g gram
GDP gross domestic product
GHG greenhouse gas
GHz gigahertz
GIS geographic information system
GPS global positioning system
HEV hybrid electric vehicle
ID identification
IFR International Federation of Robotics
IGCC integrated gasification combined cycle
IOT Internet of things
IPR intellectual property rights
IT information technology
kg kilogram
kW kilowatt
kWh kilowatt hour
LAN local area network
LMP lithium-metal polymer
m meter
MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MOF metal-organic framework
NASCAR National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing
NDGPS Nationwide Differential Global Positioning System
NETL National Energy Technology Laboratory (U.S.)
NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (United States)
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
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PC pulverized-coal
PC personal computer
PDA portable digital assistant
PDO 1,3-propanediol
PLA polylactic acid
R&D research and development
RF radio frequency
RFID radio-frequency identification
SWNT single-walled CNT
tpd tons per day
TUI tangible user interface
UAV unmanned aerial vehicle
UCV unmanned combat vehicle
UGV unmanned ground vehicle
UHF ultra-high frequency
USPTO United States Patent and Trademark Office
UWB ultrawideband
V volt
Wh Watt hour
wt weight
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