Demand uncertainties Promotion of modern Retail

Description
The documentation about Planning for Demand Uncertainties during Promotional Cycles of Modern Retail discusses Electronic Data Interchange, Promotions, Modern Trade , Supply Chain Innovation , Planning Model, Collaborative Planning , DAMA Model (Demand Activated Manufacturing Architecture), Upswing in Modern Trade.

Planning for Demand Uncertainties during Promotional Cycles of Modern Retail
Introduction Considering the value chain for a company to service its final customers, the retailer is at the front end. The customer is not buying the product from the company but from the retail outlet. In this perspective, the role of the retailer becomes all-important. Hence, it becomes imperative for the company to forge a good relationship with the trade so that the company can service its present customers well and form new set of customers which would ultimately help the company achieve its business objectives. Retail in India is growing in a big way. The organized retail sector in India is expected to grow stronger than GDP growth in the next five years. All this is changing the contours of the retail scenario in India. Promotions have been a tool for channel members to increase the demand for their products. Where promotions create opportunities for channel members, at the same time it creates challenges to forecast the impact of promotions on demand and to plan for other channel member's action. Upswing in Modern Trade The distribution of the retail market in the present Indian scenario comprises chiefly of the food and grocery sector. This sector is primarily covered by the FMCGs.

The market structure for the organised sector is still in its nascent stage, with the full potential yet to be tapped. But the scenario looks very promising and the future lucrative.

Vis-a-vis other countries, modern trade is yet to reach its full potential in India. It still has a long journey to cover. But promises to turn into the gigantic organised sector it aspires to be.

Promotions Why Promotions? Every manufacturer dreams to be leader in the sector and to have a growing business. To achieve this dream, he promotes his products in the market. Most of the manufacturers plan promotions based on following motives: -

From the graphs below, it becomes further clear that manufacturers plan promotions to increase the demand to match with average supply in off-season period. Also from next graph, it is clear that from period 1 to 5, the manufacturer is loosing business due to limited supply capacity and, hence, decides to increase its capacity above the average demand. Further, it uses promotional tools for better asset utilization of increased capacity.

Who does it and How?

As shown in the exhibit above, there are two strategies of an organization to plan its promotions. An organization can plan as per "Push Strategy" in which it provides an incentive to its trade partner to push the product in the market, whereas, in "Pull Strategy", an organization provides an incentive to its consumers to increase the demand in the market. Selection of Pull Strategy and/or Push Strategy depends on various factors like product's maturity on product life cycle, industry's maturity level, competition in the market, etc.

Modern Trade - A Challenge For the benefit of consumers and to maintain the growth of the upcoming business model of Modern Trade, it has requirements from its suppliers, i.e., product manufacturers.

For a manufacturer, it becomes a challenge to cater to Modern Trade due to its requirements in multiple dimensions mentioned in the exhibit above. Manufacturers can convert this challenge in an opportunity if they can foresee the requirements, especially demand for various SKUs, and plan accordingly. While organizations forecast demand for its various SKUs, it becomes a challenge in case of modern trade outlets as mentioned in exhibit below.

As mentioned in exhibit above, the manufacturer forecasts demand and plan for it based on past records and plans for promotions from manufacturer's marketing team. As explained in previous section, an organization tries to increase demand for its SKUs for various objectives. But if Modern Trade Outlet also plans its promotions at the same time, then the demand will suddenly shoot up as in period 6 to 8 in the exhibit and if they both withdraw promotions then demand in the market will suddenly reduce and its freshness level will reduce. In this way, it becomes a challenge for manufacturers to plan and satisfy their customers. Therefore, it is the requirement of the market to include channel partners in the planning process to reduce the deviations. Challenge or Opportunity Based on previous sections, we can say that Modern Trade is a challenge and this challenge is becoming bigger and challenging everyday with a very high growth rate. Today, every manufacturer is developing its organization and trying to convert Modern Trade from a challenge to an opportunity,

and to grow with the retail industry. There are various methods, models and technology described subsequently to handle this challenge and convert it in an opportunity. Supply Chain Innovation - "Changing Business Strategies" Supply chain innovations combine developments in information and related technologies with new logistic and marketing procedures to improve operational efficiency and enhance service effectiveness. Innovations include ECR (Efficient Consumer Response), CR (Continuous Replenishment), automated ordering utilizing scanner data, and many other technology-enhanced processes and procedures in the out-bound supply chain. Importantly, these innovations consist of allocating new investments and activity sets to channel participants to maximize joint profit by reducing costs through greater operational efficiency and by increasing revenue through greater service effectiveness.

Innovations such as point-of-sale (POS) scanner-based automatic ordering and a CR system can transform a traditional "push" distribution channel into a demand "pull" system. In the traditional channel, product is pushed down the channel. Firms at each level hold inventory to buffer their own internal operations from uncertainties of upstream supply and downstream demand. Innovative POS ordering and CR can dramatically reduce system-wide inventory, transportation and warehousing costs, and stock-out problems at retail. By deploying IT and new logistical procedures, the inventory can be shifted to the distributor, enabling the retailer to close its central receiving warehouse and receive direct-to-store shipments based on real-time sales data. By employing such innovations, operational improvements that dramatically lower costs and improve service are technically feasible. However, the characteristics of specific exchanges often make it difficult, and occasionally, impossible, for the trading partners to deploy the required investments and adopt the new activity sets.

Under the banner of concepts such as VMI, CPFR, and Continuous Replenishment (CR), it is widely accepted that creating a seamless, synchronized supply chain leads to increased responsiveness and lower inventory costs. Responsive Supply Chain - "A Competitive Strategy in a Networked Economy" An RSC can be defined as, "A network of firms that is capable of creating wealth to its stake-holders in a competitive environment by reacting quickly and cost effectively to changing market requirements." There is a need to meet the changing market requirements by developing a suitable network of collaborative firm based on the core-competencies and on leveraging people and information as quickly as possible and in the most cost-effective manner. This review is based on three major determinants of an RSC: (i) strategic planning, (ii) virtual enterprise, and (iii) knowledge and IT management.

Water Tank Model

In the Water Tank Model, the water is treated as inventory and there are two decisions to be taken by manufacturers which are "Ordering Decision" and "Capacity Decision".

In Type 0 Model, there is no collaboration, and both retailer and supplier plan separately, which creates challenges at various levels. In Type 1 Model, outflow of inventory from retailer is reported at supplier level, which helps in planning for capacity decisions. In Type 2, ordering decision from retailers is planned in parallel and, hence, avoids mis-alignments in ordering decision at supplier's end. In the Type 3 Model, both the decisions are taken together and it removes unnecessary ordering decision, and maintains leveled capacity. At this level, the supply chain becomes highly aligned and effective. Planning Model Planning in today's modern market needs to be done at minutest level to avoid conflicts in the supply chain. The two categories for planning are: -

A) Product Level B) Region Level Forecasting is important in both the categories at different levels. Organization need to plan for each SKU to be supplied at various stores to become most efficient supply chain. Further, these forecasts can be accumulated to find out at higher levels in product and region category which are national demands for whole business.

Collaborative Planning - "IT Makes it Possible" CPFR has three stages: planning, forecasting, and replenishment, proposed by VICS. These are further divided into nine steps, which apply an iterative approach to developing collaborative business planning, fore-casting and replenishment between partners. The details of steps depend on the capability of the partners, the role of the supply chain, the information source, and consensus between partners. CPFR steps and details of the supply chain collaboration are normally decided by mutual discussion.

DAMA Model (Demand Activated Manufacturing Architecture) The DAMA Model was developed initially for textile industry by US integrated textile complex. DAMA Architecture is as shown in following exhibit. It is an inter-enterprise architecture and collaboration model for supply chains that will enable improved collaborative business across the supply chain.

As per this Architecture, each company (enterprise) in the sector may have its own unique internal architecture for sharing corporate information. The key architecture for collaboration across the supply chain is the support of a common set of information available to all members of the supply chain. The information must be timely, valid, secure and selectively available with client level authentication. As per DAMA model, following steps are to be followed for an efficient and responsive supply chain: -

Electronic Data Interchange - "Networking the Organizations" EDI potentially facilitates profound changes in organizational behavior, use of technology and interorganizational relationships. It permits a sharing of information and, thus, much closer relationships between trading partners, allowing them to alter radically their procedures for dealing with one another in procuring supplies, delivering goods and services, and carrying out financial transactions. It advocates and promotes it as a means of effecting changes in the competitive environment through reduced supplier bases, just-in-time inventory management, and "quick response" to customer demand, because it offers organizations the ability to order and receive materials and services much more rapidly than with paper-based trading systems. It allows organizations to optimize the flow of goods along the supply chain, using EDI to share information about markets, material requirement forecasts, inventory levels, production and delivery schedules. Eat the Pie

Each channel partner demands a share of the benefits gained by combined effort. To quantify these benefits, we propose a model where benefits are shared directly or indirectly between trade partners based on synergy levels between both the partners.

In this model, the benefits to retailer have a cost (monetary or effort) to supplier and benefits to suppliers have a cost to retailers. Hence, quantifying the benefits to both the partners will determine the sharing level of benefits gained by collaborative effort. Benefits to retailer are discounts, CSL (Customer Satisfaction Level), Lower Order Error Rate, Higher Freshness Levels, etc., where as benefits to supplier are Logistics Cost Saving, Branding Opportunities, etc. Sample Calculations Assumptions Category Weightings are: -

Factor Weightings are: -

For a particular store, Discounts, CSL and Freshness Levels which shall be offered may be modeled based on above weightages, which would be decided based on previous experiences of Nestle. For a store X, if

Then CSL = (0.7*0.05+ 0.25*0.3+0.7*0.1+0.05*0.15+1.0*0.15+1.0*0.07+1.0*.08+1.0*0.05+ 1.0*0.05)*100% = 97.94% Similarly, Freshness Level and Discount Levels can be calculated. This methodology can be used to define the minimum levels to be offered to the store, however, it will depend on the negotiations with the store. Hence, benefits can be shared based on the effort on collaboration with other trade partner. Conclusion Modern Trade, in developing countries, is growing at a much faster rate as compared to most of other sectors. This growth is throwing many challenges in operational terms and monetary terms. A successful entrepreneur / businessman is one who converts the challenges into opportunities. Using the models explained above, an organization shall be able to convert these challenges in the market into opportunities, and utilize these opportunities for its benefit. Further, due to the combined effort and synergies between trading partners, there shall be a quantifying model to share various benefits.

The model suggested above shall be able to quantify the share between the partners for sharing benefits, and the synergies can be taken to new heights with joint efforts to supply products at Right Time, at Right Price, with Right Quality at Right Place. References
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