Daily Currency Technical Report

[Research_4u]

MARKET OVERVIEW

Rupee depreciated against its trading partners in the past week due to fears of QE taper as early as Fed’s monetary policy meeting this week resurfaced. Also, over the week mixed economic data from USA added to the uncertainty and speculation over Fed’s next move.

Domestically, correction in the equity markets after touching their lifetime highs and record high consumer price inflation data and below expected IIP data led to further weakness in the rupee.

FIIs sold securities worth Rs. 1041.59 crores in the cash and derivatives market of India on Friday.

India's foreign exchange reserves have risen for five straight weeks to a seven-month high. Forex reserves jumped $4.408 billion in the week ended December 6 to $295.7 billion as banks continued to swap their dollar borrowings with RBI in favor of the rupee even after the deadline of November 30.

 

[Research_4u]

MARKET OVERVIEW
Rupee gained 0.81 percent against the dollar on Monday and closed at 61.86 in futures. The spot rate is currently at 61.73.

FIIs sold securities worth Rs. 820.17 crores in the Indian equity markets in the cash and derivatives segment on Monday.

Dollar index is currently trading at 80.09 marginally up by 0.02 percent.

Empire state manufacturing index rose less than expected to 0.98 this month from a reading of minus -2.21 in November. US non-farm business sector labor productivity rose by a seasonally adjusted 3%u0025 in the third quarter, up from a preliminary estimate of 1.9%.

The U.S. flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index inched lower to a 54.4 reading in December from 54.7 in November, but still signaled solid business conditions.

Net foreign purchases of long-term securities in USA totaled USD35.4 billion in October, compared to purchases of USD31.3 billion in September.


OUTLOOK FOR TODAY: USD INR
We expect the rupee to trade on neutral to positive note against the dollar due to slight weakness in the dollar index. However, sharp gains in the rupee will be capped by positive economic data from USA.

Technical Outlook: As seen on the daily chart, USDINR has bounced back from the resistance at 62.40 level and has also broken the support level of 61.88 on the intraday chart. It is likely that the counter will head towards the level of 61.44.

CURRENCY TRACKER: 17th December 2013
CURRENCY CONTRACT S2 S1 LTP R1 R2 TREND
USDINR December 61.4400 61.6000 61.8600 62.1700 62.4700 Sideways to Bearish
EURINR December 84.7700 84.9700 85.2300 85.4800 85.8000 Sideways to Bearish
GBPINR December 100.2200 100.5200 100.9175 101.4500 101.7200 Sideways to Bearish
JPYINR December 59.4000 59.6700 60.0700 60.4100 60.7200 Sideways to Bearish

Read More Info Visit Here - research4u.co.in

 

[Research_4u]

Rupee remained volatile this week taking cues from strength in the dollar index & more than expected positive economic data from USA. Higher treasury yield in the US moreover led to weakness in rupee which touched its one month low against the dollar this week yet recovered a little after possible intervention by the RBI.

Domestically, weak Indian market sentiments & poor manufacturing & services PMI data which stood at 50.7 & 48.5 respectively.

FIIs invested a total of Rs. 132.56 crores in the cash & derivatives market of India on Friday.

After declining for two weeks, India’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $204.9 million to $ 295.71 billion in the week ended December 27 on the back of an increase in the core currency component.

The reserves had declined by $12.6 million in the previous reporting week to $295.50 billion.

Foreign currency assets (FCAs), which form a major part of the overall reserves, shot up by $164.3 million to $268.634 billion in the week under review, the Reserve Bank said.

Original Post