CRISIS AHEAD - AIDS epidemic to worsen
By 2025, it would kill 31m in India and 18m in China
IT BEGAN quietly, when a statistical anomaly pointed to a mysterious syndrome that attacked the immune systems of gay men in California. No one imagined 25 years ago that AIDS would become the deadliest epidemic in history. Since June 5, 1981, HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, has killed more than 25 million people, infected 40 million others and left a legacy of unspeakable loss, hardship, fear and despair.
Its spread was hastened by ignorance, prejudice, denial and the freedoms of the sexual revolution. Along the way from oddity to pandemic, AIDS changed they way people live and love.
Slowed but unchecked, the epidemic’s relentless march has established footholds in the world’s most populous countries. Advances in medicine and prevention that have made the disease manageable in the developed world haven’t reached the rest.
In the worst case, sub-Saharan Africa, it has been devastating. And the next 25 years of AIDS promise to be deadlier than the first.
AIDS could kill 31 million people in India and 18 million in China by 2025, according to projections by UN population researchers. By then in Africa, where AIDS likely began and where the virus has wrought the most devastation, researchers said the toll could reach 100 million.
“It is the worst and deadliest epidemic that humankind has ever experienced,” Mark Stirling, the UNAIDS director for east and southern Africa, said.
More effective medicines, better access to treatment and improved prevention in the last few years have started to lower the grim projections. But even if new infections stopped immediately, additional African deaths alone would exceed 40 million, Stirling said.
“We will be grappling with AIDS for the next 10, 20, 30, 50 years,” he said.
Efforts to find an effective vaccine have failed dismally, so far. The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative says 30 are being tested in small-scale trials. More money and more efforts are being poured into prevention campaigns but the efforts are uneven. Success varies widely from region to region, country to country.
Still, science offers some promise. In highly developed countries, cocktails of powerful antiretroviral drugs have largely altered the AIDS prognosis from certain death to a manageable chronic illness.
There is great hope that current AIDS drugs might prevent high-risk people from becoming infected. One of these, tenofovir, is being tested in several countries. Plans are to test it as well with a second drug, emtricitabine or FTC.
But nothing can be stated with certainty until clinical trials are complete, said Anthony Fauci, a leading AIDS researcher and infectious diseases chief at the US National Institutes of Health. HIV continues to spread An estimated 38.6 million people worldwide are living with HIV up from 37.3 million in 2005, according to a United Nations report released last week. Experts cite drops in HIV prevalence in some of the hardest-hit African nations as evidence that the disease’s spread is slowing Origin of the epidemic Nations were slow to react 25 years ago when AIDS first hit the world. Ignorance and prejudice against AIDS patients has hastened its spread.
1981 – CDC reported first cases of rare pneumonia and skin cancer in gay men, women and IV drug users
1983-84 French and US doctors isolate and identify HIV as cause of AIDS
1986 – Intl. Steering Committee for People with HIV/AIDS created
1994 – First treatment regimen to reduce mother to- child transmission
2001 – UN calls for global fund to fight AIDS.
2002 – Women make up half of all adults living with HIV/AIDS worldwide 80s 1982 Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) defined
1985 – At least one case of HIV/AIDS reported in every region of world; HIV screening of blood donation began 90s e
1988 Dec. 1 declared World AIDS Day
1987 – First thera py for AIDS, called az dothymidine approved
1998 First largescale trials for HIV vaccine 00s
2000 – UNAIDS and WHO form initiative with drug companies to increase access to treatment in developing countries 2003 – $15 billion US plan for AIDS relief announced
SOURCE : HINDUSTAN TIMES
By 2025, it would kill 31m in India and 18m in China
IT BEGAN quietly, when a statistical anomaly pointed to a mysterious syndrome that attacked the immune systems of gay men in California. No one imagined 25 years ago that AIDS would become the deadliest epidemic in history. Since June 5, 1981, HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, has killed more than 25 million people, infected 40 million others and left a legacy of unspeakable loss, hardship, fear and despair.
Its spread was hastened by ignorance, prejudice, denial and the freedoms of the sexual revolution. Along the way from oddity to pandemic, AIDS changed they way people live and love.
Slowed but unchecked, the epidemic’s relentless march has established footholds in the world’s most populous countries. Advances in medicine and prevention that have made the disease manageable in the developed world haven’t reached the rest.
In the worst case, sub-Saharan Africa, it has been devastating. And the next 25 years of AIDS promise to be deadlier than the first.
AIDS could kill 31 million people in India and 18 million in China by 2025, according to projections by UN population researchers. By then in Africa, where AIDS likely began and where the virus has wrought the most devastation, researchers said the toll could reach 100 million.
“It is the worst and deadliest epidemic that humankind has ever experienced,” Mark Stirling, the UNAIDS director for east and southern Africa, said.
More effective medicines, better access to treatment and improved prevention in the last few years have started to lower the grim projections. But even if new infections stopped immediately, additional African deaths alone would exceed 40 million, Stirling said.
“We will be grappling with AIDS for the next 10, 20, 30, 50 years,” he said.
Efforts to find an effective vaccine have failed dismally, so far. The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative says 30 are being tested in small-scale trials. More money and more efforts are being poured into prevention campaigns but the efforts are uneven. Success varies widely from region to region, country to country.
Still, science offers some promise. In highly developed countries, cocktails of powerful antiretroviral drugs have largely altered the AIDS prognosis from certain death to a manageable chronic illness.
There is great hope that current AIDS drugs might prevent high-risk people from becoming infected. One of these, tenofovir, is being tested in several countries. Plans are to test it as well with a second drug, emtricitabine or FTC.
But nothing can be stated with certainty until clinical trials are complete, said Anthony Fauci, a leading AIDS researcher and infectious diseases chief at the US National Institutes of Health. HIV continues to spread An estimated 38.6 million people worldwide are living with HIV up from 37.3 million in 2005, according to a United Nations report released last week. Experts cite drops in HIV prevalence in some of the hardest-hit African nations as evidence that the disease’s spread is slowing Origin of the epidemic Nations were slow to react 25 years ago when AIDS first hit the world. Ignorance and prejudice against AIDS patients has hastened its spread.
1981 – CDC reported first cases of rare pneumonia and skin cancer in gay men, women and IV drug users
1983-84 French and US doctors isolate and identify HIV as cause of AIDS
1986 – Intl. Steering Committee for People with HIV/AIDS created
1994 – First treatment regimen to reduce mother to- child transmission
2001 – UN calls for global fund to fight AIDS.
2002 – Women make up half of all adults living with HIV/AIDS worldwide 80s 1982 Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) defined
1985 – At least one case of HIV/AIDS reported in every region of world; HIV screening of blood donation began 90s e
1988 Dec. 1 declared World AIDS Day
1987 – First thera py for AIDS, called az dothymidine approved
1998 First largescale trials for HIV vaccine 00s
2000 – UNAIDS and WHO form initiative with drug companies to increase access to treatment in developing countries 2003 – $15 billion US plan for AIDS relief announced
SOURCE : HINDUSTAN TIMES
