Description
Document that explains different climatic factors affecting indian economy.
ENVIRONMENT MANAGEMENT
“CLIMATE CHANGE & ITS IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY”
CLIMATE CHANGE:Climate change is any long-term significant change in the expected patterns of average weather of a specific region over an appropriately significant period of time. Climate change reflects abnormal variations to the expected climate within the Earth's atmosphere and subsequent effects on other parts of the Earth. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development.
Climate Change Factors:Climate Change is the result of a great many factors including the dynamic processes of the Earth itself, external forces including variations in sunlight intensity, and more recently by human activities, which might in future be deliberate geoengineering. External factors that can shape climate are often called climate forcings and include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, and the level of greenhouse gas concentrations.
Variations within the Earth's climate • Glaciations:Glaciers are recognized as being among the most sensitive indicators of climate change advancing during climate cooling (for example, during the period known as the Little Ice Age) and retreating during climate warming on moderate time scales. Glaciers grow and shrink; both contributing to natural variability and amplifying externally forced changes.
•
Effects of CO2 on climate change:Increased carbon dioxide levels are thought to exacerbate the heating effects of the Greenhouse Effect by reducing the re-radiation of heat from the sun and, therefore, increasing the temperature contained in the atmosphere. As the ability of the atmosphere to capture and recycle energy emitted by the Earth's surface is essential to a stable climate, this heightened temperature may introduce a de-stabilizing influence and potentially affect global weather patterns and, eventually, long-term climate change.
•
Solar variation:The sun is the source of a large percentage of the heat energy input to the climate system. Lesser amounts of energy is provided by the gravitational pull of the Moon (manifested as tidal power), and geothermal energy. The energy output of the sun, which is converted to heat at the Earth's surface, is an integral part of the Earth's climate.
Human Influence • Fossil Fuels:Carbon dioxide levels are substantially higher now than at any time in the last many years. Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 19th Century and accelerating since, the human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO2 levels from a concentration of approximately 280 ppm in pre-industrial times to around 387 ppm today. The concentrations are increasing at a rate of about 2-3 ppm/year.
•
Aerosols:Anthropogenic aerosols, particularly sulphate aerosols from fossil fuel combustion, exert a cooling influence. This, together with natural variability may account for the relative "plateau" in the temperature of the middle part of the 20th-century.
•
Cement Manufacture:Cement manufacture contributes CO2 to the atmosphere when calcium carbonate is heated, producing lime and carbon dioxide, and also as a result of burning fossil fuels in the process. It is estimated that the cement industry produces around 5% of global manmade CO2 emissions, of which 50% is produced from the chemical process itself, and 40% from burning fuel to power that process. The amount of CO2 emitted by the cement industry is more than 900 kg of CO2 for every 1000 kg of cement produced.
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDIA:India is a large developing country with nearly 700 million rural population directly depending on climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, forests and fisheries) and natural resources (such as water, biodiversity, mangroves, coastal zones, grasslands) for their subsistence and livelihoods.
Further, the adaptive capacity of dry land farmers, forest dwellers, fisher folk, and nomadic shepherds is very low10. Climate change is likely to impact all the natural ecosystems as well as socio-economic systems.
The latest high resolution climate change scenarios and projections for India, based on Regional Climate Modeling (RCM) system, known as PRECIS developed by Hadley Center and applied for India using IPCC scenarios A2 and B212 shows the following: • An annual mean surface temperature rise by the end of century, ranging from 3 to 5°C under A2 scenario and 2.5 to 4°C under B2 scenario, with warming more pronounced in the northern parts of India. • A 20% rise in all India summer monsoon rainfall and further rise in rainfall is projected over all states except Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, which show a slight decrease. • Extremes in maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to increase and similarly extreme precipitation also shows substantial increases, particularly over the west coast of India and west central India. Some of the projected impacts of climate change in India are as follows: Water resources The hydrological cycle is likely to be altered and the severity of droughts and intensity of floods in various parts of India is likely to increase. Further, a general reduction in the quantity of available run-off is predicted. Agriculture Simulations using dynamic crop models indicate a decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India. However, this is offset by an increase in CO2 at moderate rise in temperature and at higher warming, negative impact on crop productivity is projected due to reduced crop durations.
Coastal zone Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal; particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period. Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization. Desertification Globally, about 1900 Mha of land are affected by land degradation, of which 500 Mha each are in Africa and the Asia-Pacific and 300 Mha in Latin America. Climate change leading to warming and water stress could further exacerbate land degradation, leading to desertification. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the degradation of resources and socio-economic pressures. Thus, countries such as India with a large population dependent on climate-sensitive sectors and low adaptive capacity have to develop.
IMAPCT ON INDIAN ECONOMY Vulnerability to climate change will mainly depend on economic position and infrastructure capacity of nations. Climate change effects will impose significant additional stress on ecological and socioeconomic systems, but currently these systems are burdened by pollution, natural resource scarcities and other unsustainable practices. In a developing country like India, climate change is an additional burden because ecological and socioeconomic systems are already facing pressures from rapid population, industrialization and economic development. India’s climate could become warmer under conditions of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. The average temperature change is predicted to be in the range of 2.33° C to 4.78° C with the doubling in CO2 concentrations (IPCC 1998). The various studies conducted in the country have shown that the surface air temperatures in India are going up at the rate of 0.4oC per hundred years, particularly during the post-monsoon and winter season. Using models, they predict that mean winter temperatures will increase by as much as 3.2oC in the 2050s and 4.5oC by 2080s, due to Greenhouse gases. Summer temperatures will increase by 2.2oC in the 2050s and 3.2oC in the 2080s. Extreme temperatures and heat spells have already become common over Northern India, often causing loss of human life. In 1998 alone, 650 deaths occurred in Orissa due to heat waves. Climate change has had an effect on the monsoons too. India is heavily dependent on the monsoon to meet its agricultural and water needs, and also for protecting and propagating its rich biodiversity. Subtle changes have already been noted in the monsoon rain patterns by scientists at
IIT, Delhi. They also warn that India will experience a decline in summer rainfall by the 2050s, summer rainfall accounts for almost 70% of the total annual rainfall over India and is crucial to Indian agriculture. For the Indian economy, which mainly depends on natural resources, climate change could represent an additional stress on agriculture, forestry, the coastline, water resources and human health. Changing climatic conditions can have the big effect on our life and our environment. Infact, it is the greatest environmental threat faced by planet earth. The change in weather conditions can be best observed through the extreme rise in temperature, melting of glaciers and sudden rise in sea level. These changes are causing serious problems to humans and other forms of life. Biologist and Environmentalists are constantly searching for the new solutions to combat these environmental changes. The assessment report by South Asia regional office of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) lists other possible impacts of climate change-related developments on India: * Increase in temperature in India could be higher than the global average, as predicted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). * Rapidly changing and increasingly unpredictable patterns of monsoon and rainfall.
* Decline in crop yields of up to 30 per cent in India and other South Asian countries by 2080.
* Rise in sea levels which could submerge coastal areas and also infuse salt water into fresh water sources. This in turn could create a large number of so-called climate change refugees not only in India but also from across the borders into the country, thereby leading to further strain on resources.
* The increased pace of retreating of the Himalayan glaciers would reduce India’s fresh water sources in the future.
* Incidence of more severe vector-borne diseases such as dengue, bacterial and arboviral diseases.
* Increased frequency of extreme weather conditions such as droughts and floods.
CASE STUDY- ORISSA Orissa is a coastal state on the East coast of India. It is placed at the head of the Bay of Bengal. Orissa is one state, which is most prone to climate changes, primarily because of its geographical location and its position at the head of the Bay of Bengal. The state’s fluctuating weather conditions suggest that it is reeling under climatic chaos. For more than a decade now, the state has been experiencing contrasting extreme weather conditions: from heat waves to cyclones: from droughts to floods. In the last four years, calamities have claimed more than 30,000 lives, which have not only becoming more frequent, but have hit areas that were never considered vulnerable. The entire state has been experiencing an unprecedented rise in temperatures and for a region, which is otherwise known for its moderate temperature, this is a very alarming trend. Orissa has been experiencing bouts of heat waves over the last 5 plus years, with the worst heat wave being in 1998 which killed around 1500 people mostly in coastal Orissa. Orissa has also been experiencing severe drought, with the worst drought being recorded in the year 2001. It affected the lives of over 11 million people in more than two-thirds of the states districts, engulfing earlier drought free districts like Sundergarh and Kendrapada. Ironically, the state has also been experiencing floods along with drought and floods have virtually become an annual feature in the state with the monsoon of 2001 leading to the worst ever flood recorded in Orissa in the past century. 25 of the 30 districts were inundated affecting one-thirds of the state’s 30 million residents. Some districts in Western Orissa, which had no history of floods, hitherto were completely submerged. The frequency of cyclones has increased in the Orissa coast. In 1999, two cyclones hit the state in quick succession. The second one lasted three days and ravaged 14 coastal districts. Around 15 million people were affected, two million tones of rice crop was completely lost and around 17,000 square kilometers of agricultural land was devastated. A large-scale destruction of forests was also reported, with about 200,000 trees being uprooted in an area of 25,000 hectares of reserved forest. In the districts of Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada, the forest cover was reduced by 50%. There has been a major change in the cropping/flowering patterns. Mango and Mahua trees have been reported to flower unusually early. Normally Mango trees in Orissa generally begin to flower in November while Mahua trees flower from February. From 2000, the trend has been changing, with Mango trees flowering in September and Mahua in December. Early flowering normally leads to low yield and this is what Orissa has been experiencing from 2000.
The `Annual Survey of Indian Agriculture’, published by The Hindu, has reported that an average of 900,000 hectares of agricultural lands lose crop every year in the state. It has also reported that the agriculture’s share in the net state domestic product has decreased from 33% in 1998-99 to 30% in 2000-01 and from 30% in 2000-01 to 27% in 2001-02 and to 26% in 2002-03. There has also been a number of reports of depletion of mangroves dotting the coast line. This has resulted in coastal erosion since mangroves act as a natural protection of coast lines and thus has exacerbated flood risk. During the Ninth Plan period (1997-2002), Orissa was in the grip of a series of disasters. On the eve of the Tenth Plan (2002-03), the entire state was going through a severe drought. The total loss of livelihood and damage to capital stock due to calamities between 1998-99 and 2001-02 stands at Rs 13,230.47 crore, according to the Tenth Plan document, Government of Orissa. This is close to 60% of the state's total plan outlay of Rs 19,000 crore for the Tenth Five-Year Plan.
Orissa's role in global warming The Washington-based Institute of Policy Studies, an advocacy group critical of multilateral institutions like the World Bank, says that Orissa is emitting close to 3% of total greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted in the world in 2005. GHGs are the main culprits of global warming. "Orissa's industries and coal-fired power plants will be emitting 164 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by the year 2005, or the equivalent of about 3% of the projected growth in manmade greenhouse gases anticipated globally over the next decade," says the report. In addition, Orissa's industrialization will release toxic and potent global warming agents, tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane (by-products of aluminium smelting) equivalent to 8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, which, because they are long-lasting, will contribute to a "perpetual change" in the earth's atmosphere
Why has Orissa been affected the most? Orissa is placed at the head of the Bay of Bengal where weather is formed. So even a slight change in the sea's behavior can have an immediate impact on the coast. The bay becomes the centre of low pressure, bringing heavy rain and cyclones to the sub-continent, especially in Orissa. Records suggest that there has been a rising trend in all-India mean surface air temperature. Rain is caused by a depression formed over the Bay of Bengal. So even a small change in a parameter like temperature will have a huge impact on Orissa. Research shows that a change of 0.5°C can change the character of the monsoons.
Also an increase in sea surface temperature will be accompanied by a corresponding increase in cyclone intensity. A possible increase in cyclone intensity of 10-20% against an increase in sea surface temperature of 2-4°C is very likely to happen.
Effect on Orissa: 40% of rice and grain in Orissa is grown in the flood prone coastal areas. As a result of erosion, salinization and inundation the farmlands are less fertile. There has already been a 7.7% reduction of farmland in 13 years. In 10 years, there is a decrease in major agro produce (which year) of paddy (6,8%), pulses (56,4%), oilseeds (44%), potato (20,7), onion (14,4%) and other vegetables (24,8%). Each flood and drought there are substantial losses. The super cyclone alone destroyed 2 million tonnes of rice crops. According to the national survey of Indian Agriculture by de The Hindu in 2006 food production has decreased 40% from 2000 levels. When they lose their crops due to flood or drought, some farmers commit suicide because of the debts they cannot repay. The economy will lose Rs. 360 crore per meter of rising in sea level, losing an area of 170.000 ha prime agricultural land.
CONCLUSION:Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. The projected climate change under various scenarios is likely to have implications on food production, water supply, coastal settlements, forest ecosystems, health, energy security, etc. The most effective way to address climate change is to adopt a sustainable development pathway by shifting to environmentally sustainable technologies and promotion of energy efficiency, renewable energy, forest conservation, reforestation, water conservation, etc.
doc_385306754.doc
Document that explains different climatic factors affecting indian economy.
ENVIRONMENT MANAGEMENT
“CLIMATE CHANGE & ITS IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY”
CLIMATE CHANGE:Climate change is any long-term significant change in the expected patterns of average weather of a specific region over an appropriately significant period of time. Climate change reflects abnormal variations to the expected climate within the Earth's atmosphere and subsequent effects on other parts of the Earth. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development.
Climate Change Factors:Climate Change is the result of a great many factors including the dynamic processes of the Earth itself, external forces including variations in sunlight intensity, and more recently by human activities, which might in future be deliberate geoengineering. External factors that can shape climate are often called climate forcings and include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, and the level of greenhouse gas concentrations.
Variations within the Earth's climate • Glaciations:Glaciers are recognized as being among the most sensitive indicators of climate change advancing during climate cooling (for example, during the period known as the Little Ice Age) and retreating during climate warming on moderate time scales. Glaciers grow and shrink; both contributing to natural variability and amplifying externally forced changes.
•
Effects of CO2 on climate change:Increased carbon dioxide levels are thought to exacerbate the heating effects of the Greenhouse Effect by reducing the re-radiation of heat from the sun and, therefore, increasing the temperature contained in the atmosphere. As the ability of the atmosphere to capture and recycle energy emitted by the Earth's surface is essential to a stable climate, this heightened temperature may introduce a de-stabilizing influence and potentially affect global weather patterns and, eventually, long-term climate change.
•
Solar variation:The sun is the source of a large percentage of the heat energy input to the climate system. Lesser amounts of energy is provided by the gravitational pull of the Moon (manifested as tidal power), and geothermal energy. The energy output of the sun, which is converted to heat at the Earth's surface, is an integral part of the Earth's climate.
Human Influence • Fossil Fuels:Carbon dioxide levels are substantially higher now than at any time in the last many years. Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 19th Century and accelerating since, the human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO2 levels from a concentration of approximately 280 ppm in pre-industrial times to around 387 ppm today. The concentrations are increasing at a rate of about 2-3 ppm/year.
•
Aerosols:Anthropogenic aerosols, particularly sulphate aerosols from fossil fuel combustion, exert a cooling influence. This, together with natural variability may account for the relative "plateau" in the temperature of the middle part of the 20th-century.
•
Cement Manufacture:Cement manufacture contributes CO2 to the atmosphere when calcium carbonate is heated, producing lime and carbon dioxide, and also as a result of burning fossil fuels in the process. It is estimated that the cement industry produces around 5% of global manmade CO2 emissions, of which 50% is produced from the chemical process itself, and 40% from burning fuel to power that process. The amount of CO2 emitted by the cement industry is more than 900 kg of CO2 for every 1000 kg of cement produced.
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDIA:India is a large developing country with nearly 700 million rural population directly depending on climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, forests and fisheries) and natural resources (such as water, biodiversity, mangroves, coastal zones, grasslands) for their subsistence and livelihoods.
Further, the adaptive capacity of dry land farmers, forest dwellers, fisher folk, and nomadic shepherds is very low10. Climate change is likely to impact all the natural ecosystems as well as socio-economic systems.
The latest high resolution climate change scenarios and projections for India, based on Regional Climate Modeling (RCM) system, known as PRECIS developed by Hadley Center and applied for India using IPCC scenarios A2 and B212 shows the following: • An annual mean surface temperature rise by the end of century, ranging from 3 to 5°C under A2 scenario and 2.5 to 4°C under B2 scenario, with warming more pronounced in the northern parts of India. • A 20% rise in all India summer monsoon rainfall and further rise in rainfall is projected over all states except Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu, which show a slight decrease. • Extremes in maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to increase and similarly extreme precipitation also shows substantial increases, particularly over the west coast of India and west central India. Some of the projected impacts of climate change in India are as follows: Water resources The hydrological cycle is likely to be altered and the severity of droughts and intensity of floods in various parts of India is likely to increase. Further, a general reduction in the quantity of available run-off is predicted. Agriculture Simulations using dynamic crop models indicate a decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India. However, this is offset by an increase in CO2 at moderate rise in temperature and at higher warming, negative impact on crop productivity is projected due to reduced crop durations.
Coastal zone Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal; particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period. Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization. Desertification Globally, about 1900 Mha of land are affected by land degradation, of which 500 Mha each are in Africa and the Asia-Pacific and 300 Mha in Latin America. Climate change leading to warming and water stress could further exacerbate land degradation, leading to desertification. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the degradation of resources and socio-economic pressures. Thus, countries such as India with a large population dependent on climate-sensitive sectors and low adaptive capacity have to develop.
IMAPCT ON INDIAN ECONOMY Vulnerability to climate change will mainly depend on economic position and infrastructure capacity of nations. Climate change effects will impose significant additional stress on ecological and socioeconomic systems, but currently these systems are burdened by pollution, natural resource scarcities and other unsustainable practices. In a developing country like India, climate change is an additional burden because ecological and socioeconomic systems are already facing pressures from rapid population, industrialization and economic development. India’s climate could become warmer under conditions of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. The average temperature change is predicted to be in the range of 2.33° C to 4.78° C with the doubling in CO2 concentrations (IPCC 1998). The various studies conducted in the country have shown that the surface air temperatures in India are going up at the rate of 0.4oC per hundred years, particularly during the post-monsoon and winter season. Using models, they predict that mean winter temperatures will increase by as much as 3.2oC in the 2050s and 4.5oC by 2080s, due to Greenhouse gases. Summer temperatures will increase by 2.2oC in the 2050s and 3.2oC in the 2080s. Extreme temperatures and heat spells have already become common over Northern India, often causing loss of human life. In 1998 alone, 650 deaths occurred in Orissa due to heat waves. Climate change has had an effect on the monsoons too. India is heavily dependent on the monsoon to meet its agricultural and water needs, and also for protecting and propagating its rich biodiversity. Subtle changes have already been noted in the monsoon rain patterns by scientists at
IIT, Delhi. They also warn that India will experience a decline in summer rainfall by the 2050s, summer rainfall accounts for almost 70% of the total annual rainfall over India and is crucial to Indian agriculture. For the Indian economy, which mainly depends on natural resources, climate change could represent an additional stress on agriculture, forestry, the coastline, water resources and human health. Changing climatic conditions can have the big effect on our life and our environment. Infact, it is the greatest environmental threat faced by planet earth. The change in weather conditions can be best observed through the extreme rise in temperature, melting of glaciers and sudden rise in sea level. These changes are causing serious problems to humans and other forms of life. Biologist and Environmentalists are constantly searching for the new solutions to combat these environmental changes. The assessment report by South Asia regional office of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) lists other possible impacts of climate change-related developments on India: * Increase in temperature in India could be higher than the global average, as predicted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). * Rapidly changing and increasingly unpredictable patterns of monsoon and rainfall.
* Decline in crop yields of up to 30 per cent in India and other South Asian countries by 2080.
* Rise in sea levels which could submerge coastal areas and also infuse salt water into fresh water sources. This in turn could create a large number of so-called climate change refugees not only in India but also from across the borders into the country, thereby leading to further strain on resources.
* The increased pace of retreating of the Himalayan glaciers would reduce India’s fresh water sources in the future.
* Incidence of more severe vector-borne diseases such as dengue, bacterial and arboviral diseases.
* Increased frequency of extreme weather conditions such as droughts and floods.
CASE STUDY- ORISSA Orissa is a coastal state on the East coast of India. It is placed at the head of the Bay of Bengal. Orissa is one state, which is most prone to climate changes, primarily because of its geographical location and its position at the head of the Bay of Bengal. The state’s fluctuating weather conditions suggest that it is reeling under climatic chaos. For more than a decade now, the state has been experiencing contrasting extreme weather conditions: from heat waves to cyclones: from droughts to floods. In the last four years, calamities have claimed more than 30,000 lives, which have not only becoming more frequent, but have hit areas that were never considered vulnerable. The entire state has been experiencing an unprecedented rise in temperatures and for a region, which is otherwise known for its moderate temperature, this is a very alarming trend. Orissa has been experiencing bouts of heat waves over the last 5 plus years, with the worst heat wave being in 1998 which killed around 1500 people mostly in coastal Orissa. Orissa has also been experiencing severe drought, with the worst drought being recorded in the year 2001. It affected the lives of over 11 million people in more than two-thirds of the states districts, engulfing earlier drought free districts like Sundergarh and Kendrapada. Ironically, the state has also been experiencing floods along with drought and floods have virtually become an annual feature in the state with the monsoon of 2001 leading to the worst ever flood recorded in Orissa in the past century. 25 of the 30 districts were inundated affecting one-thirds of the state’s 30 million residents. Some districts in Western Orissa, which had no history of floods, hitherto were completely submerged. The frequency of cyclones has increased in the Orissa coast. In 1999, two cyclones hit the state in quick succession. The second one lasted three days and ravaged 14 coastal districts. Around 15 million people were affected, two million tones of rice crop was completely lost and around 17,000 square kilometers of agricultural land was devastated. A large-scale destruction of forests was also reported, with about 200,000 trees being uprooted in an area of 25,000 hectares of reserved forest. In the districts of Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada, the forest cover was reduced by 50%. There has been a major change in the cropping/flowering patterns. Mango and Mahua trees have been reported to flower unusually early. Normally Mango trees in Orissa generally begin to flower in November while Mahua trees flower from February. From 2000, the trend has been changing, with Mango trees flowering in September and Mahua in December. Early flowering normally leads to low yield and this is what Orissa has been experiencing from 2000.
The `Annual Survey of Indian Agriculture’, published by The Hindu, has reported that an average of 900,000 hectares of agricultural lands lose crop every year in the state. It has also reported that the agriculture’s share in the net state domestic product has decreased from 33% in 1998-99 to 30% in 2000-01 and from 30% in 2000-01 to 27% in 2001-02 and to 26% in 2002-03. There has also been a number of reports of depletion of mangroves dotting the coast line. This has resulted in coastal erosion since mangroves act as a natural protection of coast lines and thus has exacerbated flood risk. During the Ninth Plan period (1997-2002), Orissa was in the grip of a series of disasters. On the eve of the Tenth Plan (2002-03), the entire state was going through a severe drought. The total loss of livelihood and damage to capital stock due to calamities between 1998-99 and 2001-02 stands at Rs 13,230.47 crore, according to the Tenth Plan document, Government of Orissa. This is close to 60% of the state's total plan outlay of Rs 19,000 crore for the Tenth Five-Year Plan.
Orissa's role in global warming The Washington-based Institute of Policy Studies, an advocacy group critical of multilateral institutions like the World Bank, says that Orissa is emitting close to 3% of total greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted in the world in 2005. GHGs are the main culprits of global warming. "Orissa's industries and coal-fired power plants will be emitting 164 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by the year 2005, or the equivalent of about 3% of the projected growth in manmade greenhouse gases anticipated globally over the next decade," says the report. In addition, Orissa's industrialization will release toxic and potent global warming agents, tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane (by-products of aluminium smelting) equivalent to 8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, which, because they are long-lasting, will contribute to a "perpetual change" in the earth's atmosphere
Why has Orissa been affected the most? Orissa is placed at the head of the Bay of Bengal where weather is formed. So even a slight change in the sea's behavior can have an immediate impact on the coast. The bay becomes the centre of low pressure, bringing heavy rain and cyclones to the sub-continent, especially in Orissa. Records suggest that there has been a rising trend in all-India mean surface air temperature. Rain is caused by a depression formed over the Bay of Bengal. So even a small change in a parameter like temperature will have a huge impact on Orissa. Research shows that a change of 0.5°C can change the character of the monsoons.
Also an increase in sea surface temperature will be accompanied by a corresponding increase in cyclone intensity. A possible increase in cyclone intensity of 10-20% against an increase in sea surface temperature of 2-4°C is very likely to happen.
Effect on Orissa: 40% of rice and grain in Orissa is grown in the flood prone coastal areas. As a result of erosion, salinization and inundation the farmlands are less fertile. There has already been a 7.7% reduction of farmland in 13 years. In 10 years, there is a decrease in major agro produce (which year) of paddy (6,8%), pulses (56,4%), oilseeds (44%), potato (20,7), onion (14,4%) and other vegetables (24,8%). Each flood and drought there are substantial losses. The super cyclone alone destroyed 2 million tonnes of rice crops. According to the national survey of Indian Agriculture by de The Hindu in 2006 food production has decreased 40% from 2000 levels. When they lose their crops due to flood or drought, some farmers commit suicide because of the debts they cannot repay. The economy will lose Rs. 360 crore per meter of rising in sea level, losing an area of 170.000 ha prime agricultural land.
CONCLUSION:Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. The projected climate change under various scenarios is likely to have implications on food production, water supply, coastal settlements, forest ecosystems, health, energy security, etc. The most effective way to address climate change is to adopt a sustainable development pathway by shifting to environmentally sustainable technologies and promotion of energy efficiency, renewable energy, forest conservation, reforestation, water conservation, etc.
doc_385306754.doc