Strategic Foresight in multinational enterprises.
A case study on the Deutsche Telekom
Laboratories.
René Rohrbeck, Heinrich Arnold, Jörg Heuer
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
ISPIM-Asia Conference, New Delhi, India
9
th
– 12
th
January 2007
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 1
Agenda.
Introduction
Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight
Case Study on a project of Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Conclusion
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 2
Research
gap
Motivation
Research focused on methods
Little knowledge about organization and
actors
Little research on usage of gained
insights
Introduction.
Motivation and research question.
Research
Questions
Increased competition
Increased technological complexity
Shorter innovation cycles
Fast changing customer needs
Management needs to
make decisions fast in
order to stay ahead of
competitors
How do companies organize their foresight activities?
Are consumer, market and technology foresight activities coordinated?
Who is involved in foresight activities?
Howare the gained insights used in operative innovation management?
Need for research on how
to link strategic foresight
with strategic and
operative management
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 3
Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight.
Scientific classification.
Company
level
Regional/ national
and supranational
level
Using data from the
past to anticipate the
future
Using gathered
information for
decision making
Process and
actors
Organization
Future Analysis
Strategic Foresight
Foresight
Forecasting
Source: Own figure
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 4
Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight.
The 4 elements of Strategic Foresight.
Source: Own figure
Strategic Foresight
Identification, assessment and usage of
information on emerging technologies and
technological discontinuities
Assessment of competitors and identification
and assessment of products and service in
development or available in lead markets
Identification, assessment and anticipation of
consumer needs, lifestyle and socio-cultural
trends
Competitive Intelligence Consumer Foresight
Technology Intelligence Political Environment Foresight
Identification, assessment and usage of
information on legislation, the political
environment and on shifts in political will
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 5
Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight.
The 2 perspectives of Strategic Foresight are
integrated by actors, methods, and systems.
Strategic Foresight
Market perspective Technology perspective Integrating elements
Methods
Actors
Competitive Intelligence
Consumer Foresight
Political Environment
Foresight
Systems
Technology Intelligence
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 6
Agenda.
Introduction
Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight
Case Study on a project of Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Conclusion
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 7
Actors of Strategic Foresight.
Coordination of actors can lead to reduction of
redundant activities and to synergies.
Market
perspective
Technology
perspective
Cross-functional
Strategic
Operational
Source: Rohrbeck, Gemünden (2006)
Strategic
Tactical
Operational
Innovation
Strategy
Technology and
Platform Strategy
Strategic R&D
projects
Project
Management
Technology Expert Product Manager
Technology
Exploration
Customer
Exploration
Product & Service
Exploration
Actors
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 8
Methods of Strategic Foresight.
Integrating methods play a key role in coordinating
activities and realizing synergies.
Customer diaries
Ethnographic Study
Socio-cultural Currents
Customer Scenarios
Focus Topics
Qualitative Survey
Quantitative Survey
Competitor Analysis
Trend Report
Lead-User Analysis
Lead-Market Analysis
Market-oriented methods Technology-oriented methods Integrating methods
Roadmapping
Scenario Technique
Quality Function
Deployment
Internal Delphi Study
Technological
Competitor Analysis
Technology Scouting
Publication Analysis
Patent Analysis
Conference Analysis
S-Curve Analysis
Delphi Studies
Learning Curve
Option Pricing Models
Simulations
Benchmarking
Source: Rohrbeck, Gemünden (2006)
Methods
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 9
Sequence of activities.
Four steps lead from the Strategic Foresight impulse
to the successful launch of a new project at T-Labs.
Market
perspective
Technology
perspective
Cross-functional
Operational
Source: Own figure based on barriers paradigm of Gemünden (2001)
Idea
communication
Concept
development
Project
proposal
Consumer Assessment:
„Communication behavior
in online and offline
communities“
Technology Assessment:
„Application enabling and
delivery environment“
Consumer Exploration:
„Subcultures create
trends“
Joined Workshop:
„Facilitate communication
in online and offline
communities“
Technology Exploration:
„Multi-Channel
communication”
Idea
generation
Project Proposal:
„Toolkit for 3
rd
party
communities“
1
2
3
4
Systems
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 10
Description of Scenarios (1/2).
Virtual Communities easily communicate on the go.
The French-German business connection on OpenBC is
bringing together their members for a real life meeting in
Cologne. About 200 of the 480 members signed up for the
event. They are coming from such diverse places like Berlin,
Munich, Hamburg and several cities in France. They arrive using
different means of transportation and according to their own
schedule and stay at different hotels according to preference.
However, the organisers would like to offer them a shuttle from
the airport and main station to the venue, assistance in finding
taxis and restaurants as well as grouping up to save on trans-
portation costs or discussing on hotels, the event, etc.
Using various CoSIMS Services members can communicate in
groups and synchronise their travel plans on the go by using the
device most convenient in the situation, meet at the station and
take a taxi or meet at a restaurant and join the event later.
More: Massive Multiplayer Gamers, Carlovers, Parents, Health
and Sports, Food and Drink, Alumni, …
Attractive Value Added Services
Attractive group-context-sensitive offers
Supporting brand communities existing on the
web with related telecommunications services
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 11
Description of Scenarios (2/2).
Real-life groups plan and communicate during common activities.
It‘s Friday night and Tom decided to go out. Using his CoSIMS
enabled mobile he looked up the presence and mood status of
his friends. Some are away travelling or not in the mood. Carl
and Martin are available and up for a party. During the afternoon
they have been discussing clubs and bars, the movie schedule
and what to do that night using their CoSIMS Messengers on
their laptops and mobiles. Others in their various groups have
left ratings of various venues helping them decide.
In the end they opted for the movies and a club later on. But they
still lack proper company. Tom would like to invite Anne, a
rather new acquaintance. Her presence status indicated
“unavailable” because she is planning to see her friends Mary
and Martha for a girls’ night. Tom sends an invitation directly to
Anne’s group. The girls are quite surprised and immediately
start to chat heavily about the offer. Of course, everyone wants
to know where it came from and how to react. In the end they
decide to go for dinner and cut their girls’ night shorter to meet
the guys at the club.
More: Families, Sports Clubs, Co-Workers, Students, …
Attractive Value Added Services
Group tickets for movies or concerts
Special offers for products and services
Hi all…come on
over to the Club…
Tonight:
Coldplay
29 €
Groups of
5 only
pay 4
7 €Cocktail Coupon
0 6 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 4
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 12
Relevance for DTAG.
Fueling communication by group experience.
Multimedia
Services
Basic
Telecommunication
Services
Branding /
Resale
Community
CoSIMS
Infrastructure
User and Content
…to generate business volume
alone or with partners,…
•Paid Content
•Transaction charges (also for internationals)
•Cross Selling
•Charges for 3rd-party-integration
• Resale of products / services
•Cross Promotion
•Advertising (banner, context-based etc.)
• (Co-) Sponsoring/(Co-) Branding
•Micro Payment
•On Demand Content
•Membership fees or subscription-models
Existing and future communication services used….
•Basic Telecommunication Services
•Telephony
•Telephone-Conferences
•Data Services
•Multimedia Services
•UMTS / NG
•Multimedia Streaming
•Push to Talk
• Instant Messaging
… which finally enhance customer
retention and satisfaction and as a
result further boost the propensity to
communicate
•Membership / registration fees
•Posting of questions and answers at the
Community-board
•Direct communication among members
•Up- and download of Community-
specific data or content
Quelle: trommsdorff+drüner
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 13
For
practitioners
Conclusion.
Receptive new product development (NPD) is essential to ensure
return on investment on Strategic Foresight activities.
Further
research
Ensure that new product development is receptive enough to use
impulses from Strategic Foresight
3 ways to do Strategic Foresight
…specialized units
...own capabilities on R&D and product manager level
…external monitoring and scanning by consultants
Elaborate consistent framework for research on Strategic Foresight
Research on systems emerging in Web 2.0 environment
Social tagging (Del.icio.us)
Agent based issue analysis
Consumer foresight in virtual worlds (Second Life)
Links:http://del.icio.us; www.secondlife.com
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 14
Thank you for your interest.
René Rohrbeck
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin
+49 30 8353 58536 (Tel)
[email protected]
Jörg Heuer
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin
+49 30 8353 58422 (Tel)
[email protected]
Dr. Heinrich M. Arnold
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin
+49 30 8353 58420 (Tel)
[email protected]
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 15
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doc_945788737.pdf
A case study on the Deutsche Telekom
Laboratories.
René Rohrbeck, Heinrich Arnold, Jörg Heuer
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
ISPIM-Asia Conference, New Delhi, India
9
th
– 12
th
January 2007
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 1
Agenda.
Introduction
Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight
Case Study on a project of Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Conclusion
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 2
Research
gap
Motivation
Research focused on methods
Little knowledge about organization and
actors
Little research on usage of gained
insights
Introduction.
Motivation and research question.
Research
Questions
Increased competition
Increased technological complexity
Shorter innovation cycles
Fast changing customer needs
Management needs to
make decisions fast in
order to stay ahead of
competitors
How do companies organize their foresight activities?
Are consumer, market and technology foresight activities coordinated?
Who is involved in foresight activities?
Howare the gained insights used in operative innovation management?
Need for research on how
to link strategic foresight
with strategic and
operative management
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 3
Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight.
Scientific classification.
Company
level
Regional/ national
and supranational
level
Using data from the
past to anticipate the
future
Using gathered
information for
decision making
Process and
actors
Organization
Future Analysis
Strategic Foresight
Foresight
Forecasting
Source: Own figure
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 4
Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight.
The 4 elements of Strategic Foresight.
Source: Own figure
Strategic Foresight
Identification, assessment and usage of
information on emerging technologies and
technological discontinuities
Assessment of competitors and identification
and assessment of products and service in
development or available in lead markets
Identification, assessment and anticipation of
consumer needs, lifestyle and socio-cultural
trends
Competitive Intelligence Consumer Foresight
Technology Intelligence Political Environment Foresight
Identification, assessment and usage of
information on legislation, the political
environment and on shifts in political will
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 5
Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight.
The 2 perspectives of Strategic Foresight are
integrated by actors, methods, and systems.
Strategic Foresight
Market perspective Technology perspective Integrating elements
Methods
Actors
Competitive Intelligence
Consumer Foresight
Political Environment
Foresight
Systems
Technology Intelligence
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 6
Agenda.
Introduction
Definition and elements of Strategic Foresight
Case Study on a project of Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Conclusion
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 7
Actors of Strategic Foresight.
Coordination of actors can lead to reduction of
redundant activities and to synergies.
Market
perspective
Technology
perspective
Cross-functional
Strategic
Operational
Source: Rohrbeck, Gemünden (2006)
Strategic
Tactical
Operational
Innovation
Strategy
Technology and
Platform Strategy
Strategic R&D
projects
Project
Management
Technology Expert Product Manager
Technology
Exploration
Customer
Exploration
Product & Service
Exploration
Actors
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 8
Methods of Strategic Foresight.
Integrating methods play a key role in coordinating
activities and realizing synergies.
Customer diaries
Ethnographic Study
Socio-cultural Currents
Customer Scenarios
Focus Topics
Qualitative Survey
Quantitative Survey
Competitor Analysis
Trend Report
Lead-User Analysis
Lead-Market Analysis
Market-oriented methods Technology-oriented methods Integrating methods
Roadmapping
Scenario Technique
Quality Function
Deployment
Internal Delphi Study
Technological
Competitor Analysis
Technology Scouting
Publication Analysis
Patent Analysis
Conference Analysis
S-Curve Analysis
Delphi Studies
Learning Curve
Option Pricing Models
Simulations
Benchmarking
Source: Rohrbeck, Gemünden (2006)
Methods
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 9
Sequence of activities.
Four steps lead from the Strategic Foresight impulse
to the successful launch of a new project at T-Labs.
Market
perspective
Technology
perspective
Cross-functional
Operational
Source: Own figure based on barriers paradigm of Gemünden (2001)
Idea
communication
Concept
development
Project
proposal
Consumer Assessment:
„Communication behavior
in online and offline
communities“
Technology Assessment:
„Application enabling and
delivery environment“
Consumer Exploration:
„Subcultures create
trends“
Joined Workshop:
„Facilitate communication
in online and offline
communities“
Technology Exploration:
„Multi-Channel
communication”
Idea
generation
Project Proposal:
„Toolkit for 3
rd
party
communities“
1
2
3
4
Systems
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 10
Description of Scenarios (1/2).
Virtual Communities easily communicate on the go.
The French-German business connection on OpenBC is
bringing together their members for a real life meeting in
Cologne. About 200 of the 480 members signed up for the
event. They are coming from such diverse places like Berlin,
Munich, Hamburg and several cities in France. They arrive using
different means of transportation and according to their own
schedule and stay at different hotels according to preference.
However, the organisers would like to offer them a shuttle from
the airport and main station to the venue, assistance in finding
taxis and restaurants as well as grouping up to save on trans-
portation costs or discussing on hotels, the event, etc.
Using various CoSIMS Services members can communicate in
groups and synchronise their travel plans on the go by using the
device most convenient in the situation, meet at the station and
take a taxi or meet at a restaurant and join the event later.
More: Massive Multiplayer Gamers, Carlovers, Parents, Health
and Sports, Food and Drink, Alumni, …
Attractive Value Added Services
Attractive group-context-sensitive offers
Supporting brand communities existing on the
web with related telecommunications services
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 11
Description of Scenarios (2/2).
Real-life groups plan and communicate during common activities.
It‘s Friday night and Tom decided to go out. Using his CoSIMS
enabled mobile he looked up the presence and mood status of
his friends. Some are away travelling or not in the mood. Carl
and Martin are available and up for a party. During the afternoon
they have been discussing clubs and bars, the movie schedule
and what to do that night using their CoSIMS Messengers on
their laptops and mobiles. Others in their various groups have
left ratings of various venues helping them decide.
In the end they opted for the movies and a club later on. But they
still lack proper company. Tom would like to invite Anne, a
rather new acquaintance. Her presence status indicated
“unavailable” because she is planning to see her friends Mary
and Martha for a girls’ night. Tom sends an invitation directly to
Anne’s group. The girls are quite surprised and immediately
start to chat heavily about the offer. Of course, everyone wants
to know where it came from and how to react. In the end they
decide to go for dinner and cut their girls’ night shorter to meet
the guys at the club.
More: Families, Sports Clubs, Co-Workers, Students, …
Attractive Value Added Services
Group tickets for movies or concerts
Special offers for products and services
Hi all…come on
over to the Club…
Tonight:
Coldplay
29 €
Groups of
5 only
pay 4
7 €Cocktail Coupon
0 6 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 4
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 12
Relevance for DTAG.
Fueling communication by group experience.
Multimedia
Services
Basic
Telecommunication
Services
Branding /
Resale
Community
CoSIMS
Infrastructure
User and Content
…to generate business volume
alone or with partners,…
•Paid Content
•Transaction charges (also for internationals)
•Cross Selling
•Charges for 3rd-party-integration
• Resale of products / services
•Cross Promotion
•Advertising (banner, context-based etc.)
• (Co-) Sponsoring/(Co-) Branding
•Micro Payment
•On Demand Content
•Membership fees or subscription-models
Existing and future communication services used….
•Basic Telecommunication Services
•Telephony
•Telephone-Conferences
•Data Services
•Multimedia Services
•UMTS / NG
•Multimedia Streaming
•Push to Talk
• Instant Messaging
… which finally enhance customer
retention and satisfaction and as a
result further boost the propensity to
communicate
•Membership / registration fees
•Posting of questions and answers at the
Community-board
•Direct communication among members
•Up- and download of Community-
specific data or content
Quelle: trommsdorff+drüner
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 13
For
practitioners
Conclusion.
Receptive new product development (NPD) is essential to ensure
return on investment on Strategic Foresight activities.
Further
research
Ensure that new product development is receptive enough to use
impulses from Strategic Foresight
3 ways to do Strategic Foresight
…specialized units
...own capabilities on R&D and product manager level
…external monitoring and scanning by consultants
Elaborate consistent framework for research on Strategic Foresight
Research on systems emerging in Web 2.0 environment
Social tagging (Del.icio.us)
Agent based issue analysis
Consumer foresight in virtual worlds (Second Life)
Links:http://del.icio.us; www.secondlife.com
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 14
Thank you for your interest.
René Rohrbeck
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin
+49 30 8353 58536 (Tel)
[email protected]
Jörg Heuer
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin
+49 30 8353 58422 (Tel)
[email protected]
Dr. Heinrich M. Arnold
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin
+49 30 8353 58420 (Tel)
[email protected]
Rohrbeck_Heuer_Arnold_(2007)_Strategic-Foresight.ppt 15
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