FUTURE LANDSCAPE OF INDIAN BANKING
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3.1 [/b]Liberalization and de-regulation process started in 1991-92 has made a sea change in the banking system. From a totally regulated environment, we have gradually moved into a market driven competitive system. Our move towards global benchmarks has been, by and large, calibrated and regulator driven. The pace of changes gained momentum in the last few years. Globalization would gain greater speed in the coming years particularly on account of expected opening up of financial services under WTO. Four trends change the banking industry world over, viz. 1) Consolidation of players through mergers and acquisitions, 2) Globalisation of operations, 3) Development of new technology and 4) Universalisation of banking. With technology acting as a catalyst, we expect to see great changes in the banking scene in the coming years. The Committee has attempted to visualize the financial world 5-10 years from now. The picture that emerged is somewhat as discussed below. It entails emergence of an integrated and diversified financial system. The move towards universal banking has already begun. This will gather further momentum bringing non-banking financial institutions also, into an integrated financial system.
3.2 [/b]The traditional banking functions would give way to a system geared to meet all the financial needs of the customer. We could see emergence of highly varied financial products, which are tailored to meet specific needs of the customers in the retail as well as corporate segments. The advent of new technologies could see the emergence of new financial players doing financial intermediation. For example, we could see utility service providers offering say, bill payment services or supermarkets or retailers doing basic lending operations. The conventional definition of banking might undergo changes.
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3.3 [/b]The competitive environment in the banking sector is likely to result in individual players working out differentiated strategies based on their strengths and market niches. For example, some players might emerge as specialists in mortgage products, credit cards etc. whereas some could choose to concentrate on particular segments of business system, while outsourcing all other functions. Some other banks may concentrate on SME segments or high net worth individuals by providing specially tailored services beyond traditional banking offerings to satisfy the needs of customers they understand better than a more generalist competitor.
3.4 International trade is an area where India’s presence is expected to show appreciable increase. Presently, Indian share in the global trade is just about 0.8%. The long term projections for growth in international trade is placed at an average of 6% per annum. With the growth in IT sector and other IT Enabled Services, there is tremendous potential for business opportunities. Keeping in view the GDP growth forecast under India Vision 2020, Indian exports can be expected to grow at a sustainable rate of 15% per annum in the period ending with 2010. This again will offer enormous scope to Banks in India to increase their forex business and international presence. Globalization would provide opportunities for Indian corporate entities to expand their business in other countries. Banks in India wanting to increase their international presence could naturally be expected to follow these corporates and other trade flows in and out of India.
3.5 [/b]Retail lending will receive greater focus. Banks would compete with one another to provide full range of financial services to this segment. Banks would use multiple delivery channels to suit the requirements and tastes of customers. While some customers might value relationship banking (conventional branch banking), others might prefer convenience banking (e-banking).
3.6 [/b]One of the concerns is quality of bank lending. Most significant challenge before banks is the maintenance of rigorous credit standards, especially in an environment of increased competition for new and existing clients. Experience has shown us that the worst loans are often made in the best of times.[/b] Compensation through trading gains is not going to support the banks forever. Large-scale efforts are needed to upgrade skills in credit risk measuring, controlling and monitoring as also revamp operating procedures. Credit evaluation may have to shift from cash flow based analysis to “borrower account behaviour”, so that the state of readiness of Indian banks for Basle II regime improves. Corporate lending is already undergoing changes. The emphasis in future would be towards more of fee based services rather than lending operations. Banks will compete with each other to provide value added services to their customers.
3.7 [/b]Structure and ownership pattern would undergo changes. There would be greater presence of international players in the Indian financial system. Similarly, some of the Indian banks would become global players. Government is taking steps to reduce its holdings in Public sector banks to 33%. However the indications are that their PSB character may still be retained.
3.8 [/b]Mergers and acquisitions would gather momentum as managements will strive to meet the expectations of stakeholders. This could see the emergence of 4-5 world class Indian Banks. As Banks seek niche areas, we could see emergence of some national banks of global scale and a number of regional players.
3.9 [/b]Corporate governance in banks and financial institutions would assume greater importance in the coming years and this will be reflected in the composition of the Boards of Banks.
3.10 [/b]Concept of social lending would undergo a change. Rather than being seen as directed lending such lending would be business driven. With SME sector expected to play a greater role in the economy, Banks will give greater overall focus in this area. Changes could be expected in the delivery channels used for lending to small borrowers and agriculturalists and unorganized sectors (micro credit). Use of intermediaries or franchise agents could emerge as means to reduce transaction costs.
3.11 [/b]Technology as an enabler is separately discussed in the report. It would not be out of place, however, to state that most of the changes in the landscape of financial sector discussed above would be technology driven. In the ultimate analysis, successful institutions will be those which continue to leverage the advancements in technology in re-engineering processes and delivery modes and offering state-of-the-art products and services providing complete financial solutions for different types of customers.
3.12 [/b]Human Resources Development would be another key factor defining the characteristics of a successful banking institution. Employing and retaining skilled workers and specialists, re-training the existing workforce and promoting a culture of continuous learning would be a challenge for the banking institutions.