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Praveen Gurwani
Will mkt's northward journey continue in January?
It just might be a 'happy' new year for the investors. After going through a brief, but significant and turbulent correction phase, the markets continued the uptrend and ended higher for second day of the week. The Sensex closed up 151.35 points at 13859.69, and the Nifty up 33.75 points at 3974.25.
Fingers are crossed and everyone's in a mood to celebrate the new year's arrival. Experts analyse the current market scenario and tell whether the party will be hot or not.
Firstly, how do they view this uptrend? Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities says, "All along we maintained that while you may have interim weakness in December, the December 31 factor is important and as you nudge closer to it, also the fact that you will see Q3 numbers, which will maintain the Q1-Q2 uptrend." Therefore, he believes one will have another fundamental driver, which will get a lot of the opportunistic and long-term money back into the market.
Apart from that, he also points out the fact that one has also been seeing the right kind of positive noises emerging out of powers of corridors, whether it is Delhi, with the US nuke deal in the bag or Singur in Bengal. "If you take all this together and couple it with the fact that December gave you a good 1000-point fall, at which people, who had missed the rally or people who wanted to create fresh positions could always come in, I think that is what we have seen over the last four days beginning last Thursday,” he says.
People have taken a fresh look and invested afresh to a certain extent. Therefore, it is not surprising to him that the market has regained most of the losses it made in December.
But Anish Damania of Emkay Shares & Stock Brokers differs on this. "I am little bit surprised of the move, which we have seen in the last two days, suddenly coming up towards the end of the year, when probably everybody is off on holiday," he says.
"We feel that the 400-point rise has caught us by a bit of surprise,” he says. But going forward, he pulls one’s attention to the action that might happen tomorrow as to how the Futures position behaves because tomorrow is the expiry. “If the rollovers are smooth, then we should expect the markets to move further up," he adds.
Giving his opinion on the expected immediate future of the markets, Jain feels December 31 should hold out these spikes that all are waiting for and expecting perhaps even a new high. But after that, he believes it is going to become a function of whether one sees other markets globally, which are going up and attracting a greater share of money as compared to India.
"There is a possibility that you could continue to go up to 14,250 or even higher in the first week itself and there could be a sell on news factor once you have the numbers. I think one should be prepared for a severe bout of volatility in the first ten days of January," he predicts.
It just might be a 'happy' new year for the investors. After going through a brief, but significant and turbulent correction phase, the markets continued the uptrend and ended higher for second day of the week. The Sensex closed up 151.35 points at 13859.69, and the Nifty up 33.75 points at 3974.25.
Fingers are crossed and everyone's in a mood to celebrate the new year's arrival. Experts analyse the current market scenario and tell whether the party will be hot or not.
Firstly, how do they view this uptrend? Rajesh Jain of Pranav Securities says, "All along we maintained that while you may have interim weakness in December, the December 31 factor is important and as you nudge closer to it, also the fact that you will see Q3 numbers, which will maintain the Q1-Q2 uptrend." Therefore, he believes one will have another fundamental driver, which will get a lot of the opportunistic and long-term money back into the market.
Apart from that, he also points out the fact that one has also been seeing the right kind of positive noises emerging out of powers of corridors, whether it is Delhi, with the US nuke deal in the bag or Singur in Bengal. "If you take all this together and couple it with the fact that December gave you a good 1000-point fall, at which people, who had missed the rally or people who wanted to create fresh positions could always come in, I think that is what we have seen over the last four days beginning last Thursday,” he says.
People have taken a fresh look and invested afresh to a certain extent. Therefore, it is not surprising to him that the market has regained most of the losses it made in December.
But Anish Damania of Emkay Shares & Stock Brokers differs on this. "I am little bit surprised of the move, which we have seen in the last two days, suddenly coming up towards the end of the year, when probably everybody is off on holiday," he says.
"We feel that the 400-point rise has caught us by a bit of surprise,” he says. But going forward, he pulls one’s attention to the action that might happen tomorrow as to how the Futures position behaves because tomorrow is the expiry. “If the rollovers are smooth, then we should expect the markets to move further up," he adds.
Giving his opinion on the expected immediate future of the markets, Jain feels December 31 should hold out these spikes that all are waiting for and expecting perhaps even a new high. But after that, he believes it is going to become a function of whether one sees other markets globally, which are going up and attracting a greater share of money as compared to India.
"There is a possibility that you could continue to go up to 14,250 or even higher in the first week itself and there could be a sell on news factor once you have the numbers. I think one should be prepared for a severe bout of volatility in the first ten days of January," he predicts.