What next after Sensex 10,000?

vengabeats

Nilesh Nagdev
Hang Seng moved up from 10k to 11,000 in 2 wks, Nikkei in 12 weeks.

History was created on Dalal Street on February 6, 2006 when the Sensex, the Bombay Stock Exchange index, pierced the magic mark of 10,000. In doing so, it became the fourth major Asian stock market index to get into the five-digit mode following Nikkei 225, the Hang Seng Composite Index and the Karachi SE 100.

While the Sensex took 20 years to reach the 5-figure mark, the Karachi index was the quickest to hit the mark in 14 years. The Nikkei, which was the first index to get there, took 35 years and the Hang Seng Composite completed the journey in 29 years. Ironically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is one of the oldest index, took 103 years to get into the five-digit mode.

The question on the investors' mind now is - What Next? An online poll conducted by Business Standard revealed a slightly mixed picture. As many as 64% participants in the poll felt that the market may witness volatility and a possible deep correction while the remaining 36% expected the bull run to continue on hopes of a favourable budget later this month.

A look at what happened to the global indices after they touched the magic mark of 10,000 reveals a fascinating picture. The Hang Seng was the quickest to get to the next level of 11,000 in two weeks. While the Dow Jones took seven weeks for the next 1,000-point rally, the Nikkei completed it in 12 weeks.

Interestingly, the Karachi index witnessed deep correction after hitting 10,000 points. From its peak of 10,305, the index slumped to 6939, down nearly 33%, in the next three weeks. The index has now recouped all losses, and is currently at 10,915.

FIIs have pumped in $1.35 billion till February 7, 2006 in the current calendar year as against $ 972.50 million in the corresponding period of 2005. If the current trend continues, inflows may surpass last year's record inflows of $ 10.70 billion. An investor-friendly budget may add fuel to the rally.

Possible negatives for the market - a sharp spike in curde prices and/or any major development on the US interest rate front.
 
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