Description
Project on Tracking Agile Project Performance
Tracking Agile
Project Performance
(Earned Value and Beyond)
Presented by:
Mike Griffiths, PMP
Leading Answer Inc.
www.LeadingAnswers.com
October 14, 2009
My Background
• Project Manager and Trainer
• 20+ years IT experience on utilities, finance, defense, & energy
• 8 years PM, PMO: Agile-to-Traditional Integration
• Agile Project Management
• Helped create DSDM in 1994
• 15 years agile project experience (XP, Scrum, FDD)
• Board director of Agile Alliance and APLN
• Author, trainer, and presenter Agile Conference 2001-9
• Traditional Project Management
• PMP, PRINCE2 certifications
• PMBOK v3 contributor and reviewer
• Trainer for PMI SeminarsWorld 2005-9
• Presenter PMI Global Congress 2004-8
Agenda
Earned Value Analysis
• “When will we finish
and how much will it
cost?”
Projects are often costly and time consuming
Cost and Time Reporting
Cost Reporting – S Curve Charts
Project Expenditure
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan
20
Jan
27
Feb
3
Feb
10
Feb
17
Feb
24
Mar
3
Mar
10
Mar
17
Mar
24
Mar
31
Apr
7
S
p
e
n
d
$
0
0
0
Estimate
Actual
Cost and Time Reporting (Cont’d)
Schedule Reporting - Tracking Gantt Charts
What is Earned Value?
• A technique to measure, at a specific date:
• Progress and performance of a project against a plan
• Predict future performance of the project
• Consists of 3 dimensions:
1. Planned Spend
2. Actual Spend
3. Budgeted Spend against Actual Work Accomplished
What is Earned Value (cont’d)?
Answers these types of questions:
• “When will we finish and how much will it cost?”
• “Given our rate of expenditure are we tracking on
progress?”
• “Given our costs and progress how much will it take to
complete?”
EV Critical Success Factors
1. Quality of the project’s baseline plan
• Earned Value is compared against the baseline plan
• Cost ‘overruns’ occur if project costs are under-budgeted
• Scope creep will occur if initial scope hasn’t been adequately
defined
2. Track actual performance against approved baseline plan
• Measure whether actuals track to the baseline plan
3. Management’s determination to influence final results
• Mgt commitment to take action based on EV projections if
deviations from plan are observed
Earned Value Project Management, Quentin Fleming & Joel Koppelman, 2000
Earned Value Analysis - Example
Example: Building wall to surround a garden
Assume 4 equal sides, budget £200 per side
Schedule 1 side per day, finish in 4 days, cost £800
Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200
Earned Value Analysis - Example
Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200
Day 2 Progress = Side 1 started, did not finish budget spent £220
Earned Value Analysis - Example
Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200
Day 2 Progress = Side 1 started, did not finish budget spent £220
Day 3 Progress = Side 1 finished, half of back done, left early, spent £140
Earned Value Analysis - Example
• How much ahead/behind
are we?
• How much over/under
budget are we?
Earned Value Analysis
Term Name Meaning
Day 3 Values
PV Planned Value Estimated value of the work
planned to be done
£600
EV Earned Value Estimated value of the work
actually accomplished
£200+£200+£100=£500
AC Actual Costs Actual Costs Incurred £200+£220+£140=£560
BAC Budget At
Completion
Amount budgeted for total project £800
EAC Estimate At
Completion
Currently expected total for project ?
ETC Estimate To
Complete
How much More to finish ?
VAC Variance At
Completion
How much over/under we expect
to be
?
Reminder: Assume 4 equal sides, budget £200 per side
Schedule 1 side per day, finish in 4 days, cost £800
Earned Value Analysis
Name Formulae Value and Meaning
Cost Variance CV=EV-AC (£200+£200+£100=£500) –
(£200+£220+£140=£560) = -£60
(We are over budget)
Schedule Variance SV=EV-PV (£200+£200+£100=£500) –
(£200+£200+£200=£600)= -£100
(We are behind schedule)
Cost Performance Index CPI=EV/AC £500/£560 = 0.89
(I am getting 89 pence out of every £)
Schedule Performance
Index
SPI=EV/PV £500/£600 = 0.83 (I am progressing at 83%
of the rate originally planned)
Estimate At Completion EAC=BAC/CPI £800/0.89 = £900
(The total is now likely to be £900)
Estimate To Complete ETC=EAC-AC £900 - £560 = £340
(From now I will likely spend £340)
Variance At Completion BAC-EAC £800-£900 = -£100
(We expect to be £100 over budget)
Earned Value Formulae
Agile Earned Value Analysis
While agile EVA application is possible, question:
• Role – is it the best measure of progress?
• Consider: Features delivered/remaining
• Goal – is the main focus conformance to plan?
• Consider: Adaptive planning techniques to improve the planning
process
• Consider: Focus on delivering business value
Agile Metrics
XYZ Project - Estimated Effort Remaining
0
50
100
150
200
250
Dec
01
Dec
08
Dec
15
Dec
22
Dec
29
Jan
05
Jan
12
Jan
19
Jan
26
Feb
02
Feb
09
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
f
f
o
r
t
• Time
Agile Metrics
• Features Delivered/Remaining
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
J
a
n
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
A
u
g
Time
F
e
a
t
u
r
e
s
Not Started
In Progress
Completed
Adapted from “Agile Management for Software Engineering” - David Anderson, 2003
Scope (points) ABC Project Progress Spend
Agile Metrics
Agile Metrics
Actual Costs
Planned Costs
Earned Value
Planned Value
Agile Metrics
Cost Variance
}
Schedule Variance
}
Agile Metrics
}
}
Planned Costs (PV)
Schedule Variance
Cost Variance
Earned Value (EV)
SPI = Completed Features
Planned Features
CPI = Earned Value
Actual Costs
Actual Costs (AC)
Functionality-based Reporting
Example 2: Feature-based Reporting
Feature Set Status:
Enter Order
Details
(15)
24%
Percentage Complete:
Not Started
Work in Progress
Completed
Attention (i.e. behind)
Percentage Complete Bar
October 2009
Target Completion Month:
Not Complete Complete
FB
Chief Programmers Initials
Feature Set Name
Number of Features in
the Feature Set
The Feature Set called Enter Order
Details has 15 features and is
currently 24%complete. It is due to
be completed by October 2009
Functionality-based Reporting (Cont’d)
Example 2: Feature-based Reporting
Create New
Order
(5)
100%
Capture
Customer
Details
(9)
75%
Enter Order
Details
(15)
24%
Process
Payment
(11)
Create New
Customer
(8)
55%
Amend
Customer
Details
(6)
20%
Archive
Customer
(4)
Stock
Search
(6)
95%
Item
Details
(12)
75%
Order Processing
Customer Management
Inventory Management
Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Sep 2009 Oct 2009
Oct 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009
CM DH LF RS NC
AW
KB
SW SW
Analysis DB Proc.s Code & UT User Test
45 30 40 35
• Identifying constraints
• Buffering
Flow – Queue Analysis
Flow – Queue Analysis
Using CFD’s for Identifying Bottlenecks
Project Alpha - Cumulative Flow
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2
0
/
0
2
/
2
0
0
4
2
7
/
0
2
/
2
0
0
4
0
5
/
0
3
/
2
0
0
4
1
2
/
0
3
/
2
0
0
4
1
9
/
0
3
/
2
0
0
4
2
6
/
0
3
/
2
0
0
4
0
2
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
4
0
9
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
4
1
6
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
4
2
3
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
4
3
0
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
4
0
7
/
0
5
/
2
0
0
4
1
4
/
0
5
/
2
0
0
4
2
1
/
0
5
/
2
0
0
4
2
8
/
0
5
/
2
0
0
4
Date
T
o
t
a
l
F
e
a
t
u
r
e
s
Total
Analysis
DB Procs
Code & UT
User Test
Widening area activity
Bottleneck activity
Agile Metrics
Little’s Law:
Cycle times are proportional to
queue lengths.
(We can predict completion times
based on queue size)
Agile Metrics - Summary
Agile metrics can provide the same
indicators as earned value analysis
Agile metrics also provide insights
into cycle times and process
bottlenecks
Further Resources
Web: www.LeadingAnswers.com
Email: [email protected]
doc_464878202.pdf
Project on Tracking Agile Project Performance
Tracking Agile
Project Performance
(Earned Value and Beyond)
Presented by:
Mike Griffiths, PMP
Leading Answer Inc.
www.LeadingAnswers.com
October 14, 2009
My Background
• Project Manager and Trainer
• 20+ years IT experience on utilities, finance, defense, & energy
• 8 years PM, PMO: Agile-to-Traditional Integration
• Agile Project Management
• Helped create DSDM in 1994
• 15 years agile project experience (XP, Scrum, FDD)
• Board director of Agile Alliance and APLN
• Author, trainer, and presenter Agile Conference 2001-9
• Traditional Project Management
• PMP, PRINCE2 certifications
• PMBOK v3 contributor and reviewer
• Trainer for PMI SeminarsWorld 2005-9
• Presenter PMI Global Congress 2004-8
Agenda
Earned Value Analysis
• “When will we finish
and how much will it
cost?”
Projects are often costly and time consuming
Cost and Time Reporting
Cost Reporting – S Curve Charts
Project Expenditure
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan
20
Jan
27
Feb
3
Feb
10
Feb
17
Feb
24
Mar
3
Mar
10
Mar
17
Mar
24
Mar
31
Apr
7
S
p
e
n
d
$
0
0
0
Estimate
Actual
Cost and Time Reporting (Cont’d)
Schedule Reporting - Tracking Gantt Charts
What is Earned Value?
• A technique to measure, at a specific date:
• Progress and performance of a project against a plan
• Predict future performance of the project
• Consists of 3 dimensions:
1. Planned Spend
2. Actual Spend
3. Budgeted Spend against Actual Work Accomplished
What is Earned Value (cont’d)?
Answers these types of questions:
• “When will we finish and how much will it cost?”
• “Given our rate of expenditure are we tracking on
progress?”
• “Given our costs and progress how much will it take to
complete?”
EV Critical Success Factors
1. Quality of the project’s baseline plan
• Earned Value is compared against the baseline plan
• Cost ‘overruns’ occur if project costs are under-budgeted
• Scope creep will occur if initial scope hasn’t been adequately
defined
2. Track actual performance against approved baseline plan
• Measure whether actuals track to the baseline plan
3. Management’s determination to influence final results
• Mgt commitment to take action based on EV projections if
deviations from plan are observed
Earned Value Project Management, Quentin Fleming & Joel Koppelman, 2000
Earned Value Analysis - Example
Example: Building wall to surround a garden
Assume 4 equal sides, budget £200 per side
Schedule 1 side per day, finish in 4 days, cost £800
Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200
Earned Value Analysis - Example
Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200
Day 2 Progress = Side 1 started, did not finish budget spent £220
Earned Value Analysis - Example
Day 1 Progress = Front wall completed budget spent £200
Day 2 Progress = Side 1 started, did not finish budget spent £220
Day 3 Progress = Side 1 finished, half of back done, left early, spent £140
Earned Value Analysis - Example
• How much ahead/behind
are we?
• How much over/under
budget are we?
Earned Value Analysis
Term Name Meaning
Day 3 Values
PV Planned Value Estimated value of the work
planned to be done
£600
EV Earned Value Estimated value of the work
actually accomplished
£200+£200+£100=£500
AC Actual Costs Actual Costs Incurred £200+£220+£140=£560
BAC Budget At
Completion
Amount budgeted for total project £800
EAC Estimate At
Completion
Currently expected total for project ?
ETC Estimate To
Complete
How much More to finish ?
VAC Variance At
Completion
How much over/under we expect
to be
?
Reminder: Assume 4 equal sides, budget £200 per side
Schedule 1 side per day, finish in 4 days, cost £800
Earned Value Analysis
Name Formulae Value and Meaning
Cost Variance CV=EV-AC (£200+£200+£100=£500) –
(£200+£220+£140=£560) = -£60
(We are over budget)
Schedule Variance SV=EV-PV (£200+£200+£100=£500) –
(£200+£200+£200=£600)= -£100
(We are behind schedule)
Cost Performance Index CPI=EV/AC £500/£560 = 0.89
(I am getting 89 pence out of every £)
Schedule Performance
Index
SPI=EV/PV £500/£600 = 0.83 (I am progressing at 83%
of the rate originally planned)
Estimate At Completion EAC=BAC/CPI £800/0.89 = £900
(The total is now likely to be £900)
Estimate To Complete ETC=EAC-AC £900 - £560 = £340
(From now I will likely spend £340)
Variance At Completion BAC-EAC £800-£900 = -£100
(We expect to be £100 over budget)
Earned Value Formulae
Agile Earned Value Analysis
While agile EVA application is possible, question:
• Role – is it the best measure of progress?
• Consider: Features delivered/remaining
• Goal – is the main focus conformance to plan?
• Consider: Adaptive planning techniques to improve the planning
process
• Consider: Focus on delivering business value
Agile Metrics
XYZ Project - Estimated Effort Remaining
0
50
100
150
200
250
Dec
01
Dec
08
Dec
15
Dec
22
Dec
29
Jan
05
Jan
12
Jan
19
Jan
26
Feb
02
Feb
09
E
s
t
i
m
a
t
e
d
E
f
f
o
r
t
• Time
Agile Metrics
• Features Delivered/Remaining
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
J
a
n
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
A
u
g
Time
F
e
a
t
u
r
e
s
Not Started
In Progress
Completed
Adapted from “Agile Management for Software Engineering” - David Anderson, 2003
Scope (points) ABC Project Progress Spend
Agile Metrics
Agile Metrics
Actual Costs
Planned Costs
Earned Value
Planned Value
Agile Metrics
Cost Variance
}
Schedule Variance
}
Agile Metrics
}
}
Planned Costs (PV)
Schedule Variance
Cost Variance
Earned Value (EV)
SPI = Completed Features
Planned Features
CPI = Earned Value
Actual Costs
Actual Costs (AC)
Functionality-based Reporting
Example 2: Feature-based Reporting
Feature Set Status:
Enter Order
Details
(15)
24%
Percentage Complete:
Not Started
Work in Progress
Completed
Attention (i.e. behind)
Percentage Complete Bar
October 2009
Target Completion Month:
Not Complete Complete
FB
Chief Programmers Initials
Feature Set Name
Number of Features in
the Feature Set
The Feature Set called Enter Order
Details has 15 features and is
currently 24%complete. It is due to
be completed by October 2009
Functionality-based Reporting (Cont’d)
Example 2: Feature-based Reporting
Create New
Order
(5)
100%
Capture
Customer
Details
(9)
75%
Enter Order
Details
(15)
24%
Process
Payment
(11)
Create New
Customer
(8)
55%
Amend
Customer
Details
(6)
20%
Archive
Customer
(4)
Stock
Search
(6)
95%
Item
Details
(12)
75%
Order Processing
Customer Management
Inventory Management
Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec 2009 Sep 2009 Oct 2009
Oct 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009
CM DH LF RS NC
AW
KB
SW SW
Analysis DB Proc.s Code & UT User Test
45 30 40 35
• Identifying constraints
• Buffering
Flow – Queue Analysis
Flow – Queue Analysis
Using CFD’s for Identifying Bottlenecks
Project Alpha - Cumulative Flow
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2
0
/
0
2
/
2
0
0
4
2
7
/
0
2
/
2
0
0
4
0
5
/
0
3
/
2
0
0
4
1
2
/
0
3
/
2
0
0
4
1
9
/
0
3
/
2
0
0
4
2
6
/
0
3
/
2
0
0
4
0
2
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
4
0
9
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
4
1
6
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
4
2
3
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
4
3
0
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
4
0
7
/
0
5
/
2
0
0
4
1
4
/
0
5
/
2
0
0
4
2
1
/
0
5
/
2
0
0
4
2
8
/
0
5
/
2
0
0
4
Date
T
o
t
a
l
F
e
a
t
u
r
e
s
Total
Analysis
DB Procs
Code & UT
User Test
Widening area activity
Bottleneck activity
Agile Metrics
Little’s Law:
Cycle times are proportional to
queue lengths.
(We can predict completion times
based on queue size)
Agile Metrics - Summary
Agile metrics can provide the same
indicators as earned value analysis
Agile metrics also provide insights
into cycle times and process
bottlenecks
Further Resources
Web: www.LeadingAnswers.com
Email: [email protected]
doc_464878202.pdf