THE WEEK COVER STORY: Halfway mark

Manmohan has delivered on some fronts, is delivering on others. But there are areas of challenge

The Prime Minister is like the great banyan tree. Thousands shelter beneath it but nothing grows.
S.K. Patil, Congress treasurer and party strongman in the 1960s

As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh neared the halfway mark of his five-year term (he completes 30 months on November 21), Congress MPs wondered whether they could get shelter under the great banyan tree called the council of ministers. Despite it being Diwali time, which normally drives them to their constituencies, many MPs remained in Delhi.

Apart from ministerial hopefuls, there were also dozens of Congress leaders aiming for governorships (five governors have completed their term). The wags in Akbar Road headquarters of the Grand Old Party called them "perspirants", as they waited for a darshan of party president Sonia Gandhi. Some incumbent ministers, too, worried whether they would get the chop.

Though the temperature dropped in Delhi, the sweat remained on the brow of the perspirants as Singh inducted just two Congressmen-A.K. Antony as defence minister and Kannada 'rebel star' M.H. Ambareesh as minister of state for information and broadcasting. The third inductee, Jay Prakash Yadav, was returning to the council of ministers after a period of forced banishment.
Neither Sonia nor Singh wanted to rock the boat by any bold moves. Caution was the hallmark and it appeared the captain was happy with the performance of his team. Those who had already got shelter needed no worry. If there were any expectations that Singh would drop the non-performers and bring in fresh talent, there was disappointment. The only bold initiative of Singh was taking away the northeast region portfolio from the low-key and low-performing P.R. Kyndiah and giving it to the grumbling but high-voltage Mani Shankar Aiyar, who was feeling out of sorts with the sports and youth affairs portfolio.
Singh's advisers point out that he has been happy with the performance of his Congress ministers and he has no power to disturb the 22 ministers of the coalition partners, among whom are heavyweights like Sharad Pawar (agriculture), Lalu Prasad (railways), Dayanidhi Maran (communications and information technology) and Anbumani Ramadoss (health and family welfare). But if Singh is unhappy with the performance of any of the colleagues who have been either inactive or ineffectual, his motto appeared to be 'let sleeping ministers lie'. Except for shifting Pranab Mukherjee from defence to the vacant slot of foreign affairs (without disturbing him as leader of the House in Lok Sabha and control of the many Group of Ministers), no heavyweights-P. Chidambaram (finance), Shivraj Patil (home), Arjun Singh (HRD), to name a few-have been disturbed.

The comfort level with the government is such that even ministers who have not been able to grapple with the complexities of their portfolios have got another chance, while ministers of state who were hoping for a promotion, such as Oscar Fernandes, Praful Patel, Renuka Chowdhury and Subodh Kant Sahay, will have to make do with their current status as ministers with independent charge. Last year, Manmohan had promoted three such ministers-Kapil Sibal, Prem Chand Gupta and Sontosh Mohan Dev-to the cabinet, after assessing their performance for a year.

Some of the gubernatorial aspirants say the rewards come as a trickle from the Congress tap, because the 'big three' are too cautious. The trio is Sonia, Singh and Sonia's political secretary Ahmed Patel. Sonia weighs her options many times before entrusting a responsibility. Even when Ambareesh was being made a minister of state, she made Patel check with Congress leaders in Karnataka how he would alter the political balance in an opposition-ruled state.
Patel's decision-making is at a snail's pace, as he wants the least number of Congressmen to be antagonised, and this can happen when decisions are deliberated for long, sometimes tiring out the aspirants. But since Sonia has instinctive trust in Patel's judgment, the aspirants flock late into the night to Patel's home for an audience.

Singh has also developed the familiarity complex, as is evident in the way he has decided on replacing key bureaucrats. Instead of appointing a new cabinet secretary, he gave a year's extension to B.K. Chaturvedi. Speculation in bureaucratic circles is that the spymasters, RAW chief Hormis Tharakan and Intelligence Bureau Director E.S.L. Narasimhan, may get an extension when their term gets over this year end.

But there are key ministries which are performing below par. Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde has not been pushy for better performance from the electricity sector, while there have been major slippage in the execution of the Golden Quadrilateral, which is under DMK's T.R. Baalu (shipping, road transport and highways). Instead of zeroing in on the ministers, Singh's style has been to bring these issues before the cabinet and also use his pointsman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, to goad the ministries to deliver. The results have been mixed.

The ministries' record is also varied, as is evident in the accompanying assessment of the core team of the Prime Minister in the following pages. Some ministers have been dazzlers, some have just managed to sit in the chair allocated to them. If Lalu is on the fast track, surprising almost everyone, Baalu is stuck in traffic jams. Ministers like Chidambaram, Kamal Nath and Kapil Sibal communicate with the world; ministers like Shinde, Sis Ram Ola, and Shibu Soren are too silent to be effective.

Some like Pawar have been subdued compared to the impact they made in their earlier avatar as Union ministers. Some have taken the political battle into the enemy camp, like Arjun Singh on the desaffronisation and the reservation issues; and Ramadoss on his fetish to control all medical colleges, including All India Institute of Medical Sciences.

The halfway mark is the time for Manmohan to ponder over what would be his legacy as Prime Minister. Singh has delivered on some fronts, and is delivering on some others. But there are huge areas of challenge. This is the time when his core teams on economic, developmental, social and security fronts look at how much they have changed India and how much they can do in the next two years (the last six months are lost with restrictions before elections). Much depends on Team Manmohan in which the Prime Minister and Sonia have invested so much faith.

With inputs from Delhi bureau

 

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SECURITY MINISTRIES

Home and safe

The home ministry has fared well; defence and foreign ministries need to buck up

By R. Prasannan and Suman K. Jha

A soldier doesn't say 'phew' when a bullet misses him. He tenses up and takes evasive action to escape the next one. Manmohan Singh has done just that with his reshuffle of the South Block ministries. Ever since Jaswant Singh's mole-missile misfired, it was clear to the government that the opposition BJP had identified national security as the weak link in the UPA government's Teflon-plated armour. The next missiles, it knew, could hit and hurt.
The BJP had fired a few other volleys. It criticised the joint mechanism with terror-breeding Pakistan, stiffly opposed Congress Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad's plea for clemency to Afzal Guru, leaked National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan's letter to chief ministers which mentioned Lashkar-e-Toiba's plan to infiltrate the armed forces, and dubbed the naming of George Fernandes in the Barak deal FIR as witch-hunting that would slow down military procurement. More such missiles were in the offing: the Air chief's leaked letter about Pakistan gaining air superiority because of delay in fighter-jet purchase, and the Navy chief's endorsement of the Barak missile.

The achievers
The North Block, which houses the home ministry, has not been affected despite charges of ineptitude hurled at Shivraj Patil. Apart from Patil's reputed closeness to 10 Janpath, he has scored a few quiet hits-the National Common Minimum Programme promise of repealing POTA, the smooth 'transfer of power' in Jammu and Kashmir and the politically-charged Jharkhand.
The Maoist threat, though not completely tackled, has been contained: warnings about a Maoist-liberated zone dividing eastern India from its west are no longer heard. A series of conferences of chief ministers, home ministers and police chiefs, initiated by the home ministry, has brought in coordinated action against Maoists. The foreign office's success in defusing the situation in Maoist-threatened Nepal has also eased Patil's task.
It appeared that the government's description of Pakistan as a victim of terror would conflict with the police claim of having got evidence of a Pakistani hand behind the Mumbai blasts. But the Centre's move to endorse the police claim took the sting out of the opposition's criticism of the government. Similarly, the move to call off talks with Bodo rebels, reportedly on the Army's advice, repaired the 'negatively' soft image of the government.
There are suggestions that the communal violence bill, already introduced in Parliament, could do with fine-tuning. "Advani did try to enact a federal law (to fight terrorism) but his approach was faulty," said K. Subrahmanyam, security analyst. "He should have asked the states to come up with a solution rather than suggesting the move at the chief ministers' conference, which the latter likened to imposition from the Centre."
Experts have suggested that the home ministry could bring in a few administrative measures. "The US has been able to avert terror strikes not because of a dramatic improvement in their intelligence apparatus," said former Research and Analysis Wing additional secretary B. Raman. "Instead, they have beefed up physical security, which we continue to neglect." His solution: a separate ministry for internal security, as was the arrangement under Narasimha Rao.
Patil's challenge lies in tackling the northeast. When Manipur blew up over the abuse of Armed Forces Special Powers Act, the matter was referred to a committee which has recommended repeal of the Act and that similar powers be incorporated in other policing Acts. Though the report is yet to be released, the Army seems satisfied with the recommendations. "Earlier, an NCO could give an order to open fire," said Army chief Gen. J.J. Singh. "Now it will have to be a JCO. That means all the operations will have to be led by at least a JCO."
There could be some changes in tackling trouble in the northeast. Till now, Oscar Fernandes, minister without portfolio, had been in talks with Naga separatists; now he has been given independent charge of labour and employment. However, Oscar is expected to continue the political dialogue. The government showed firmness recently, by rejecting the demand for redrawing of state borders and also the demand for a separate Constitution.

The also-rans
In the South Block, Pranab Mukherjee was eminently successful in his initial days. He got increased allocation for defence, delivered the NCMP promise of a separate department for ex-servicemen's welfare, implemented the A.V. Singh report which led to quicker promotions, and created a new southwestern command for the Army. Just as he emerged as the number two in the cabinet, his responsibilities multiplied and the drift began.
Mukherjee's preoccupation with non-defence matters-from talking to Telangana-dreamers to chairing more than 30 committees-led to the drift in the South Block ministries. Last month he represented India at the UN summit, held talks with US Secretary of State Condoleezz a Rice, and shook hands with foreign ministers of more than a dozen countries.
The absence of a foreign minister was taking its toll. So preoccupied was the headless foreign office with the nuclear deal that there was no one to explain the joint mechanism with Pakistan in political terms or even to counter the contemptuous statements that emanated from Islamabad on the Mumbai blasts. And Pervez Musharraf's Kargil 'victory' claims went unanswered.
The Barak impact split the ministry into two with the services resuming their pastime of DRDO-bashing. Mukherjee did some fire-fighting in the end by giving a lease of life to the DRDO's Trishul, and sternly reminding the services brass of DRDO's contribution to the country's defence development.
Comparisons with his predecessor, Fernandes, was being made. Fernandes had visited Siachen every second month; Mukherjee has gone there only once. The services, though, liked his non-interference style. They were also happy about Mukherjee's bold defence of the Navy chief over the Navy war room leak.

The wait & watch men
The real test for Mukherjee's successor in the defence ministry, A.K. Antony, will be in implementing the new defence procurement policy, with its 30 per cent offset condition on foreign vendors. Ministry officials had been citing the confusion over the policy as the reason for the delay in big-ticket procurements like 126 multirole fighters, reconnaissance aircraft for the Navy and newer guns for the Army. The expectation is that Antony's clean image would be his best asset when the million-dollar purchases are made.
Antony will also have to speed up implementation of private sector into defence production and in legitimising middlemen. Two and half years into the UPA government, the agent registration book remains blank.
Mukherjee will have an equally tough time. It would be up to him to politically define the joint mechanism with Pakistan and defend it against the BJP's pot-shots. Then there is the nuclear deal, which is likely to face stiffer opposition in the US from the non-proliferation lobby which has been angered by North Korea's test. He will have to confront stiff reluctance from the smaller members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. The governments of most of these countries are sympathetic, but they are not sure how willing their legislatures would be to amend their nuclear export laws. Each country would have to be offered business trade-offs.

 

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ECONOMIC MINISTRIES

Right place, right time

Many sectors of economy did fine without any tinkering from ministers

By K. Sunil Thomas and Nivedita Mukherjee

When history rates Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, there is one trait for which he will get full marks-optimism. As he set about his second round of experiments with his favourite melting pot called India, many doubted whether his foot soldiers would be able to deliver. But as the journey reaches the halfway mark, many of his men seem to have bloomed in their own remarkable way.
While Lalu Prasad Yadav spearheaded a turnaround in the fortunes of Indian Railways, P. Chidambaram played a sheet-anchor role for an economy that is outrunning the growth projections.
Of course, not all of them excelled. Many sectors of economy did fine without any tinkering from ministers and bureaucrats. The going has been good with an 8 per cent growth rate and foreign investors willing to invest more. All this makes us feel that the men in charge of crucial sectors led a dramatic turnabout.
Not true. Many reaped the fruits of a galloping economy by merely being at the helm of pivotal portfolios at the right time. An expert averred that IT and Communications Minister Dayanidhi Maran helped the sector grow by staying out of it! Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel, much known for making flying accessible to the common man, did not take any policy initiative that changed the sector.

THE ACHIEVERS
The deft handling of coalition politics and economic growth has turned the lawyer-turned finance minister into a favourite of the Prime Minister. "Our macroeconomic fundamentals continue to be strong and we believe that the economic growth will continue," said Chidambaram recently. The finance minister has been able to increase government revenues through increased tax collections of 20 per cent in 2005 and 2006. Prodding almost all state governments to implement the Value Added Tax, he showed his politico-administrative skills.
They would be needed more in the future. Even as revenues grow, the shortfall in resources for building a world-class infrastructure is rising. "We need to shore up at least 34 per cent domestic savings (currently 30 per cent) to achieve 9 per cent GDP growth rate," said Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman, Planning Commission. Failure to raise foreign direct investment caps in insurance and retail, and inaction in pension fund reforms are the gaps in the otherwise sparkling report card of the finance minister.
But even a suave Chidambaram will fade in comparison with Lalu's fast-track reforms in railways. By increasing the tonnage that can be carried in a wagon, offering discounts on return journeys and increasing the speed of goods trains, he reduced the turnabout time from 7 to 5 days. The result-moving by freight train became more attractive than by road. The public carrier which defaulted on payment five years ago, saw revenues touching Rs 8,000 crore.
Even as IIM-A faculty and students gaped at his achievements, Lalu is dreaming big-a dedicated freight corridor (DFT) for goods trains to travel at higher speed, airport-style railway stations, malls and commercial 'milking' of railway land.
Dayanidhi Maran's job was pretty easy in telecommunications and IT with the area already blooming with a thousand private sector success stories. Yet this Harvard-educated Sun TV scion made a mark by pushing for cheaper call charges (remember One India), mobile phones and computers. "We've been thinking out of the box," said Maran, whose biggest achievement would be pushing software and telecom biggies to set up manufacturing base in the country, even if they all seem to settle for his home-state. "He crossed certain levels in terms of ethics, his abrasive style of negotiation often puts off foreign businessmen," said Ravi V. Prasad, telecom analyst. Ravi Bapna, executive director at the Indian School of Business, Hyderabad, pointed out that "benefits of IT has not reached a large section of our economy, while our small and medium-sized IT enterprises are very inefficient, and there is a huge gap separating them from the top ones."

THE ALSO-RANS
The one sector which caused a flutter in the last 30 months is civil aviation. It shook off its elitist image and went middle-class, while the privatisation of airports finally took off. But hold on before letting Praful Patel walk away with the laurels. It was the same civil aviation policy of 1991-92 that fresh players used to kickstart the new, low cost, boom in domestic aviation. The only change is the economic scenario, the marketplace and the strategies of the players. Yet, Patel tenaciously wrangled off a deal with employees and the Left to get the privatisation of Delhi and Mumbai airports going, as well as the much needed fleet expansion of Air India and Indian, to the tune of $10.5 billion.
Company Affairs Minister Prem Chand Gupta's innovations like MCA 21 project, a national e-governance plan, have seen investments skyrocket. His setting up of Competition Commission, as well as his hunting down companies which raised money from the capital markets and vanished have been well-received. If only he could bring out the long-awaited Companies Law, his name may not be as obscure as it is now.
Kamal Nath, as commerce and industry minister, made news with his tough talk for farmers from developing countries at the WTO talks. But, back home, he has come in for flak for allowing agricultural land to be bartered away for setting up Special Economic Zones (SEZ). "No farmer has been displaced," claimed commerce secretary Gopal K. Pillai. But the finance ministry has been saying that concessions to SEZ developers will result in Rs 90,000 crore loss. To his credit, Kamal Nath can cite exports exceeding $100 billion when the target was $92 billion.
Then, there are the other also-rans, who have managed to crest the flow, rather than make efforts to swim in any specific direction. With PSUs doing well, and private players like Tata Steel doing even better, Ram Vilas Paswan has been sitting smug in the steel, chemicals and fertiliser ministry. "My dream is to see India as a global steel hub," he said. He better wake up fast. Iron ore and coal reserves in the country are low, and fresh investments are needed.
Textile Minister Shankar Sinh Vaghela is also enjoying the toplines of a booming industry. Garment and fabric exports have touched $17 billion last year, but is still below the target of $50 billion by 2010. Kashiram Rana, minister for textiles in the previous NDA government, said Vaghela's move to reduce interest subsidy on technology upgrades in textile industry would be disastrous.

THE LAGGARDS
As the goal of 'power for all by 2012' looms large and capacity additions are not keeping pace, Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde is busy attending the 'Hasya Kavi Sammelans'. The way out could be non-conventional sources of energy. But despite impressive statistics touted by Non-Conventional Energy Minister Vilas Muttemwar, they have not been tapped for domestic use.
Petroleum & Natural Gas Minister Murli Deora would agree that with oil prices skyrocketing and the Iranian gas pipeline deal slipping out of his hands, all he has done is knee-jerk reactions like planting jatropha trees for bio-diesel and focusing on hydrogen research. "At this point of time, it is not an economically attractive option," said Kirit Parekh, member, Planning Commission.
Heavy Industries Minister Santosh Mohan Dev is more interested in reviving sick PSUs, even while plans for employment remain on paper. Sis Ram Ola, minister for mines, would prefer a chat session, than taking head on the mining-mafia, or the mining accidents that happen with sickening regularity.
"The environmental impact of mining is also a contentious issue. But, it is still not taken with the necessary seriousness," said R.K. Pachauri, director-general of Tata Energy Research Institute. Shipping and Surface Transport Minister T.R. Baalu has failed to expedite the National Highways project. "This sector is the most important and the most neglected one," said Dinesh Mohan of IIT Delhi. If the laggards do not get down to brasstacks, the road ahead can be tricky.
With Anandan S., Jacob P. Koshy and Payal Saxena

 

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SOCIAL JUSTICE MINISTRIES

When backward becomes forward

HRD ministry scores; social justice and tribal affairs ministries need to pull up their socks

By Suman K. Jha

The most eloquent expression of the Congress idea of social justice was found in party president Sonia Gandhi's All India Congress Committee plenary speech in January. Addressing the delegates in Hyderabad, she said: "Only the Congress can empower the weaker sections of our society while maintaining social harmony." As opposed to the "social justice" parties, the Congress, Sonia implied, would never practise exclusionary politics.

THE ACHIEVERS
Indeed, the most conspicuous changes effected by the UPA government have been in the social justice sector. Union Human Resources Development Minister Arjun Singh's move to reserve seats for other backward classes in institutes of higher learning may have raised hackles-and polarised the Congress-but Sonia, in her January speech, actually lauded the initiative. In keeping with its "harmony with social justice" theme, the Centre later declared that no general seats would be affected by the move.
However, the Bharatiya Janata Party, as also many Congressmen, saw this as an Arjun Singh ploy to undermine the office of the Prime Minister and the authority of the party president. "His agenda is clear. Kahin pe nigahen, kahin pe nishana (He is covering up his intentions)," BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi told THE WEEK.
The UPA National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP) talks about "immediate steps to reverse the trend of communalisation of education that had set in, in the past five years". What has been achieved is not just eminently readable textbooks-which, ironically, have earned the opprobrium of both the BJP and the Left-but a paradigm shift in teaching, where the teacher is encouraged to be one of the students.
One might be tempted to credit National Council of Educational Research and Training director Prof. Krishna Kumar and National Curriculum Framework Review Committee chairman Prof. Yashpal for the winds of change, but Kumar does not quite agree. "In my first meeting with him, the HRD minister asked me to do what the NCERT was designed for. The PM, too, asked me to restore its sanctity," he said, adding that "there was not one instance of interference from the ministry".
But many partymen have not quite forgotten Arjun Singh's ill-conceived Vande Mataram intervention-choosing September 7 to observe the 'centenary' of the national song, thereby almost reviving the BJP. The Congress also failed to fulfil its promise of introducing one-third reservations for women in the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabhas. Sonia is learnt to be softening the opposition of some of her allies. However, the fact is that large sections of the Congress and the BJP do not favour the legislation.
On other big NCMP promises to women, the Centre not only delivered but also helped achieve conditions that would truly empower the Indian woman. One notable achievement of the ministry of women and child development, headed by Renuka Chowdhury, was the Hindu Succession Amendment Act 2005, which ensures gender equality on inheriting agricultural land and joint family property. The new Act on domestic violence was another CMP promise fulfilled.

THE ALSO-RANS
Lending a helping hand towards passing the Amendment Act was Law Minister H.R. Bhardwaj. His biggest success lay elsewhere: in averting a direct confrontation with the judiciary. Confrontation seemed imminent several times in the last two and a half years-over the court's directive to record (on video) and report the Jharkhand floor test last year, over the Delhi demolition drive, over the reservation issue and recently over the court's direction to submit a copy of a parliamentary standing committee report. Despite peer pressure, Bhardwaj kept himself from making provocative statements.
The most revolutionary success of the ministry was in legislating the Right to Information Act, an NCMP promise. On the minus side, the Lok Pal Bill, another NCMP promise, is still being deliberated. Four vacancies of judges in the Supreme Court and more than 100 in the High Court do not speak well for the ministry. But then, the ministry can easily pass the buck to the courts, which have to initiate the process. Also, Bhardwaj need not be blamed for a situation that has been so for decades. Similarly, the government cannot be faulted on its intent to address the larger question of Muslim backwardness; a plethora of such measures often proved controversial.
The creation of a ministry of minority affairs, manned by A.R. Antulay, led to bitter turf wars between him and Arjun Singh. Antulay sought to widen the ambit of minorities, including Hindus in Jammu and Kashmir for instance. More substantive measures came from the top. The high-level committee constituted by the Prime Minister, under the chairmanship of Rajender Sachar, mandated to map Muslim backwardness, has completed its work.
If the social justice ministry has a target, it is quotas for SC/STs in the private sector, with Social Justice and Empowerment Minister Meira Kumar pitching hard for the cause. The NCMP talks about the UPA government being "very sensitive to the issue of affirmative action, including reservations, in the private sector". The Prime Minister, said to be in favour of a cautious approach, recently constituted a coordination committee for a time-bound action programme after dialogue with industry captains. Quite inexplicably, the ministry continues to ignore the Madhya Pradesh model of affirmative action of creating dalit industrialists pioneered by former chief minister Digvijay Singh, and seconded by the Confederation of Indian Industry and the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry.
Activists also question the absence of a comprehensive plan bracing the whole spectrum of issues that constitute the body of social justice. "Much needs to be done to reduce child labour, help disabled people, and ensure health security for elderly citizens," said Ranjana Kumari of the Centre for Social Research.

THE LAGGARDS
Tribal Affairs Minister P.R. Kyndiah failed to push the draft National Tribal Policy partly because of his inability to bring about a consensus on the tribal rights Bill in Parliament. This amounted to failure to live up to an NCMP promise. "Despite good intentions, Kyndiah has not got a single major cabinet decision for the tribals so far," said Jual Oram of the BJP, who headed the ministry in the last government. No surprise then that Kyndiah was stripped of the northeast portfolio in the recent Cabinet reshuffle.
The performance of the social justice ministries is crucially linked to the Congress's health. With the cumulative performance of the ministries just above average, it would be interesting to see if Arjun's OBC intervention breaks new ground in electoral politics for the party.
With R. Prasannan, Nikita Doval and Kallol Bhattacherjee