The Government Policy Watch[/b]
By Amit bhushan Date: Aug. 5th 2014
The Foreign Ministry in India seems to be the first to be taking off to reach China-like speed for the current government post elections. The reasons are basically simple. It only needs to make requests and agreements while the responsibility to ensure deliverables is expected by other ministries and departments. Yes, a lot of groundwork is required to sign agreements but the same is basis an ‘in principle’ broad consensus within respective departments and ministries or in the group of department/ministries led by high office. The actual implementation to thrash out nitty-gritty takes much longer and is countered with sometimes perennial blockages or movement to a different set of priorities. Hopefully, the neighbours like Nepal have the capability to involve Indian businesses who are adept in shaking the domestic bureaucratic lethargy including politically inclined minds to get the decisions that favour the respective investment projects/Joint ventures by working their way through byzantine alleys of India’s bureaucratic complex.
Nepal with its heritage actually represents a rather easier policy challenge. With its people having shaken off an autarchy (i.e. their erstwhile monarchy) are unlikely to be inclined towards another China like or Mao like autarchy. In that sense with the current regime’s agreement of not imposing any medieval relic/vestige form of government on its people in deference to its ideological backers; did the trick of yielding a positive outcome for the present government. The success of the visit by current PM will depend upon the ability to keep the ‘ideological fountains seeped in the great Hindu Traditions’ under check and continue to push businesses to take positions on projects of mutual interests in both countries backed by the capital support and business agreements/rule based support. This of course will require help to support the bureaucracy in the Neighbourhood to develop capabilities and capacity to handle complex business projects and proposals and take suitable decisions/actions in line with global business norms because most such projects will still continue to depend upon financial support from global investors rather than capital starved India’s own capital. And of course it will be watched with interest that what the larger country gets in return rather than just the businesses gaining on such opportunities in such relations.
The foreign ministry of course seems to be turning its head towards more complex neighbours like Burma, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka which is good since it puts priority to secure neighbourhood (which is also achievable) before moving on to other lofty goals. By moving away from Pak, China or US focused and being more balanced in identifying opportunities where forward movement is possible is a good approach and when applied to neighbour, it can yield good dividends due to trade/tourism/business proximity. What the ministry also needs to do is to involve other ministries to actually craft some immediate (medium to long term or 1-5 years) deliverables. Like promoting outbound tourism is subject to the neighbouring countries policies but promoting inbound tourism in India is subject to domestic policies. The Nepalese citizens could be supported in their quest to visit places like Badri-Kedar, Ayodhaya or Gaya or for Kumbh/Ardh-kumbh (mostly seasonal travel) by working alongside ‘states’ and ‘tour operators’ to evolve service offering which is suitably priced and assures a mechanism for safety to the visitors. Similarly modalities need to be worked out for transporters to work across borders to smoothen trade further without compromising on interests of Indian transporters. This would require the ministry of surface transport create coordination department for such agencies and states, rather than just focusing upon infrastructure and the booty involved thereunder. A suitable people orientation in the ministry to ensure actual service deliverable to people in cost effective manner will be a paradigm shift rather than leaving this solely to entrepreneurs/PSU or bureaucratic facilitation agencies alone who then ‘create/orchestrate’ custom & trade procedures and India’s state run mechanism which often remain lameduck confined to the borders. A suitable machinery to thrash out these modalities and work upon to promote these people to people contacts alongside support to mutual investments and businesses will work a long way. India will also need to keep in watch the impact of porous borders with these nations having impact on smuggling of gold, electronics etc. or narcotics, fake currency, terror etc. which could impact domestic industry / business environment significantly and thus evolve mechanism to deal with such issues.
Of interest will be how the relations with larger neighbour and region with countries like Burma and Bangladesh evolve & in particular untying the Bangladesh to move from under developed to a developing economy. India will also need to deal with highly contentious boundary, water and immigration issues besides other things such as typhoon disasters, epidemics, narcotics, fake currency issues which are a regular feature. India may have to move out of supplying rice & other food stuff to Bangladesh and handover that role to Burma (under suitable bi/tri lateral trade facilitation mechanism) while it focuses on ‘trading’ milk, meats etc. and offer support to develop these much larger markets evolve a mutually beneficial market mechanism to trade. Support to help evolution of bureaucratic capabilities & capacities in nurturing mining, infrastructure and services in Burma and foster suitable business activities in Bangladesh might be required for successful convergence of interests. This may involve hoisting global competency for light vehicles like two & three wheelers, Utensils making etc. in Bangladesh including custom electronics and electrical assembly besides their role in readymade garments and low end footwear. Development of Regional Railways, Road network, Pipeline network and Waterway (inland and near-shore) transportation, Telecom network including international voice & data movement, and the need to get the energy equations right will be some of the intricate issues. Bangladesh may also at some stage want to compete in employment intensive jewelry businesses but that would require a dramatic improvement in internal security, global connect besides other supportive factors. India may want to lay foundations to extend its hand in evolving a regional Rupee based Trade settlement mechanism as well as touring cheques/cards at some later stage.
India may also want to focus on developing a sea connect with the Indian Ocean Island nations such as Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius, Mozambique in conjunction with say, South Africa to offer connection via Cruise, Liners, bulk cargo (including fuel lines) and Air say via Goa or Mumbai. This will develop to and fro tour and trade mechanism and help strategic outreach and regional security efforts. India’s support to invest in services businesses in these countries could be a clincher because the upper crust Indian & SA customers are pretty soon going to outnumber other clientele in these countries as India’s economy takes off. Such a move will allow for expansion of corporate activities, banking services and trading opportunities for India besides help shoring up market attractiveness of India due to super sized regional hub role for a large but low income population with edge in producing services and manufactures where India can increasingly take upon hi-tech and heavy Industrials, mass manufacturing including for domestic consumption, innovation products, cement, steels, telecom equipment, shipping, railways and capital goods and a voracious appetite for commodities.
By Amit bhushan Date: Aug. 5th 2014
The Foreign Ministry in India seems to be the first to be taking off to reach China-like speed for the current government post elections. The reasons are basically simple. It only needs to make requests and agreements while the responsibility to ensure deliverables is expected by other ministries and departments. Yes, a lot of groundwork is required to sign agreements but the same is basis an ‘in principle’ broad consensus within respective departments and ministries or in the group of department/ministries led by high office. The actual implementation to thrash out nitty-gritty takes much longer and is countered with sometimes perennial blockages or movement to a different set of priorities. Hopefully, the neighbours like Nepal have the capability to involve Indian businesses who are adept in shaking the domestic bureaucratic lethargy including politically inclined minds to get the decisions that favour the respective investment projects/Joint ventures by working their way through byzantine alleys of India’s bureaucratic complex.
Nepal with its heritage actually represents a rather easier policy challenge. With its people having shaken off an autarchy (i.e. their erstwhile monarchy) are unlikely to be inclined towards another China like or Mao like autarchy. In that sense with the current regime’s agreement of not imposing any medieval relic/vestige form of government on its people in deference to its ideological backers; did the trick of yielding a positive outcome for the present government. The success of the visit by current PM will depend upon the ability to keep the ‘ideological fountains seeped in the great Hindu Traditions’ under check and continue to push businesses to take positions on projects of mutual interests in both countries backed by the capital support and business agreements/rule based support. This of course will require help to support the bureaucracy in the Neighbourhood to develop capabilities and capacity to handle complex business projects and proposals and take suitable decisions/actions in line with global business norms because most such projects will still continue to depend upon financial support from global investors rather than capital starved India’s own capital. And of course it will be watched with interest that what the larger country gets in return rather than just the businesses gaining on such opportunities in such relations.
The foreign ministry of course seems to be turning its head towards more complex neighbours like Burma, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka which is good since it puts priority to secure neighbourhood (which is also achievable) before moving on to other lofty goals. By moving away from Pak, China or US focused and being more balanced in identifying opportunities where forward movement is possible is a good approach and when applied to neighbour, it can yield good dividends due to trade/tourism/business proximity. What the ministry also needs to do is to involve other ministries to actually craft some immediate (medium to long term or 1-5 years) deliverables. Like promoting outbound tourism is subject to the neighbouring countries policies but promoting inbound tourism in India is subject to domestic policies. The Nepalese citizens could be supported in their quest to visit places like Badri-Kedar, Ayodhaya or Gaya or for Kumbh/Ardh-kumbh (mostly seasonal travel) by working alongside ‘states’ and ‘tour operators’ to evolve service offering which is suitably priced and assures a mechanism for safety to the visitors. Similarly modalities need to be worked out for transporters to work across borders to smoothen trade further without compromising on interests of Indian transporters. This would require the ministry of surface transport create coordination department for such agencies and states, rather than just focusing upon infrastructure and the booty involved thereunder. A suitable people orientation in the ministry to ensure actual service deliverable to people in cost effective manner will be a paradigm shift rather than leaving this solely to entrepreneurs/PSU or bureaucratic facilitation agencies alone who then ‘create/orchestrate’ custom & trade procedures and India’s state run mechanism which often remain lameduck confined to the borders. A suitable machinery to thrash out these modalities and work upon to promote these people to people contacts alongside support to mutual investments and businesses will work a long way. India will also need to keep in watch the impact of porous borders with these nations having impact on smuggling of gold, electronics etc. or narcotics, fake currency, terror etc. which could impact domestic industry / business environment significantly and thus evolve mechanism to deal with such issues.
Of interest will be how the relations with larger neighbour and region with countries like Burma and Bangladesh evolve & in particular untying the Bangladesh to move from under developed to a developing economy. India will also need to deal with highly contentious boundary, water and immigration issues besides other things such as typhoon disasters, epidemics, narcotics, fake currency issues which are a regular feature. India may have to move out of supplying rice & other food stuff to Bangladesh and handover that role to Burma (under suitable bi/tri lateral trade facilitation mechanism) while it focuses on ‘trading’ milk, meats etc. and offer support to develop these much larger markets evolve a mutually beneficial market mechanism to trade. Support to help evolution of bureaucratic capabilities & capacities in nurturing mining, infrastructure and services in Burma and foster suitable business activities in Bangladesh might be required for successful convergence of interests. This may involve hoisting global competency for light vehicles like two & three wheelers, Utensils making etc. in Bangladesh including custom electronics and electrical assembly besides their role in readymade garments and low end footwear. Development of Regional Railways, Road network, Pipeline network and Waterway (inland and near-shore) transportation, Telecom network including international voice & data movement, and the need to get the energy equations right will be some of the intricate issues. Bangladesh may also at some stage want to compete in employment intensive jewelry businesses but that would require a dramatic improvement in internal security, global connect besides other supportive factors. India may want to lay foundations to extend its hand in evolving a regional Rupee based Trade settlement mechanism as well as touring cheques/cards at some later stage.
India may also want to focus on developing a sea connect with the Indian Ocean Island nations such as Maldives, Seychelles, Mauritius, Mozambique in conjunction with say, South Africa to offer connection via Cruise, Liners, bulk cargo (including fuel lines) and Air say via Goa or Mumbai. This will develop to and fro tour and trade mechanism and help strategic outreach and regional security efforts. India’s support to invest in services businesses in these countries could be a clincher because the upper crust Indian & SA customers are pretty soon going to outnumber other clientele in these countries as India’s economy takes off. Such a move will allow for expansion of corporate activities, banking services and trading opportunities for India besides help shoring up market attractiveness of India due to super sized regional hub role for a large but low income population with edge in producing services and manufactures where India can increasingly take upon hi-tech and heavy Industrials, mass manufacturing including for domestic consumption, innovation products, cement, steels, telecom equipment, shipping, railways and capital goods and a voracious appetite for commodities.