Description
This study highlights the development in the Jordanian tourism sector, while pointing out the major
changes in this sector and its impact on economic development during the period (1990-2011). The study
revealed that the tourism market has become a vital and dynamic sector in Jordan and witnessed
significant growth in both demand and supply sides. The study showed that the supply side response was
compatible with the level of demand for tourism. Moreover, the study also concluded that the tourism
industry makes a substantial contribution to the Jordanian economy. During the study period, it accounted
for (11.2%) of the GDP, employment in the tourism cluster, including indirect employment was estimated
at around (10%) of the work force. Finally, the contribution of the tourism sector alone in export earnings
amounted to an average of (38%) of the total exports.
2214-4625/$ – see front matter ©2014 Holy Spirit University of Kaslik. Hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aebj.2014.05.005
ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
ScienceDirect
j our nal homepage: www. el sevi er. com/ l ocat e/ aebj
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +962-7964 888 05, Fax: +962-3-2179050
E-mail address: [email protected]
Peer review under responsibility of Holy Spirit University of Kaslik.
Conference Title
?????? ??????? ????? :????? ?? ??????? ????????? 1990 - 2011
The Economics of Tourism in Jordan: A statistical Study during the
Period 1990-2011
?????? ???? .? *
????? ???? ?? ?????? ?????
Dr. Fuad Kreishan*
Al Hussein Bin Talal University, Jordan
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:
Received 04 September 2012
Received in revised form 28 February
2013
Accepted 27 March 2013
Keywords:
Tourism
Jordan
Economics
A B S T R A C T
This study highlights the development in the Jordanian tourism sector, while pointing out the major
changes in this sector and its impact on economic development during the period (1990-2011). The study
revealed that the tourism market has become a vital and dynamic sector in Jordan and witnessed
significant growth in both demand and supply sides. The study showed that the supply side response was
compatible with the level of demand for tourism. Moreover, the study also concluded that the tourism
industry makes a substantial contribution to the Jordanian economy. During the study period, it accounted
for (11.2%) of the GDP, employment in the tourism cluster, including indirect employment was estimated
at around (10%) of the work force. Finally, the contribution of the tourism sector alone in export earnings
amounted to an average of (38%) of the total exports.
© 2014 Holy Spirit University of Kaslik. Hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
38 ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45
1 - :?????
? ?? ????????? ????????? ????????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ??????? ????? ???
???? ?????? ????? ????????? ?
?
?????? ??????? ????? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ????
???? ???????
?
???? .??????? ??????? ?? ??????? )?????? ??????? ???? (WTO ? ???? ?? ?????
????? ??????? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ???? 2011 ????? ?? 15 ?????? ?????? ?? %
) ??????? (GDP ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? 265 ???? ?????
????? ?? ??? ?????? ??? 11 ?????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ?? % ??????? ????? ? 7 ?? %
???????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ????? ????? ????? ???? ???
??? ??? ?????? ????? ??
?
???? 2009 ??? ??????? ???????? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ???
16 ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ??? ?? % 10 ) % 2009 World Tourism Organization: ( .
???? ?? ????? ?? ????? ???
?
???? ?????????? ???????? ??? ?? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ???
???? ?????? ???????? ???????? ???????? ????????? ???????
?
????? ????? ????? ?????? ?????
?? ???? .(???????? ?????? ????? ) ????????? ???????? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ???
??????? ?????? ????? ??? ?? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ??????? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ???????? ??????? ???
??? ??? .??????? ?????????? ????????
?
???? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ??????????
1998 ?????? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ???????? ?? ?????? ???
??? ??? .??????? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ???? 2004 ??????? ????? ????
????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????????? ?????????
?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ? 2010 .
?? ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ????? ????????
?
???? ??????? ?? ????? ??? ???
????? ????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ??? ?? ??????? ??????? ????? ????? ???
13.5 :?????? ???????? ????? )% 2009 ????? ????? .( ?? ?????? ??????? ?? ???????
????? ??? ??????? ????????? ????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???????? ???
??????? ??? ?? ??????? ????????? ????? :??? ???? ??????? ??? ??? ???? .??????? ?????
??? ??????? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ??????? ??????
) ?????? ??? ?????? 1990 - 2011 .(
? ???? ???????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ?? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? :?????? ?? ??????? ?????
???? ????? (Fischer,et al.,:2009) ????? ?? ??????? ???? ??????? ?????? . ?????? ???
?? ????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ???????????? ??????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ?? ?????
.????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???? ?????? ????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????
) ???????? ????? 2001 ????? ?? ????????? ??????? ?? ??????? ??? ??????? ?????? ??? (
) ?????? ??? 1980 - 1999 ???? ???? ?? ? ( ?????? ??? ???????? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ???
?????? ??????? ??????? ???????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ??
.??????? ?????? ????? ????? ?????????
) ???????? ????? 1991 ??? ??????? ???? ??? ??????? ??????? ??? ??????? ??? ?????? (
????? ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????? ??? ?? ?????? ??????? ?? ??????? ???
.????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???????? ?????? ???????
) ????? ????? 1985 Erhel: ??????? ??? ??????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ???? ??? (
?? ???????? ?????? ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ??? ??????? ??? ?? ?????
) ?????? ??? ????? ????????? ?????? ???????? ??????? ????? 1964 - 1983 .(
) ?????? ????? Kreishan:2011 ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ??????? ??? ???? ??? (
?? ?????? ????? ???????? ???? ??????? ?????? ???????? ????? ??? ??????? ??????? ?????
) ?????? ??? ???? ??????? ???????? 1970 - 2009 ??? ??????? ???? ???? ??????? ???? ??? (
????? ??? ??????? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???????? ?????
.????? ?? ???????? ????? ????? ??????? ???? ??? ???????
? ??? ?? ????? ???? ???? ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ??????? ????? ??? ????? ???????
??????? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ??? ?????????? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ???????? ????
????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ????? ??? ?? ???? ??????? ??????? ??
??? ) ?????? ??? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? 1990 - 2011 ???? ???? ??? ??????? .(
:????? ?????? ??? ?????? ???????
1 ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ??.
2 ??????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ?? .
??????? ????????? :
???????
?????
?????????
????
????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??? ???? ???? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ????
?????? ? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ??????? 1990 - 2011 ????? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ??? .
? ??????? ??????? ????? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ??? ?? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ????? .?????? ??????
??? ??? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ???????? ????????? ???????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ???? ?? ?
??? ????? ??????? .??????? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ??? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ???
? ? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ??????
11.2 % . ??? ?? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ?????? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ???????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ? 10 ?????? ?? %
.????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ??????
?? ?? ???????? ???? ???????? ????? ??
?
?????? ??????? ??? 38 % .???????? ?????? ??
ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45 39
?? ????? ?????? ??????? ? ???????? ????? ??? ?? ???????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???? ?????
????? ????????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ?????? .??????? ????? ???? ???? ????????
????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ???? ???? ????? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ?? ??????? ?????
?? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ??????? ???????? ????? :??????? ? .?????? ??????? ????? ???????
????? ?? ??????? ????? ????? :? ???
????? ???? ?? ?? ????? ??? ????
?
??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ??????? ?? ????? ???
???? ??????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ????? ???????? ???????? ??????? ???
?? ???????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ????? ???? ??????? ????? ???? ????
??????? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ?????????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ??????
??????? ???????? ?????? ???? ??? ????????? ?????? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ???
??? ???????? ????? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????
?
????? ?????? ?? ???? ???? ???????
?????? ) ??????? ????? ??????? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ???????? ??????? ?????
:??????? 2005 ?????? ???? ( Vanhove:2005) ? ??? ????? ???? ??? ??? ( ???
:??? ????? ??????
1 ???????? ????????? ?????? ? ????????? ??????? ??????? ????? :??????? ???????? ??????? .
.??????
2 ?????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ????? ???? ??? ????? :??????? ?????? .
.??????? ???????? ??????? ????? ???????? ???????
3 ?? . .????????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ????? :???????? ??????
????? ??????? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ??????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ???
? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ??????? ???? ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ???
??????? ??????? ???????? ????? ?????? ???? ????? ???? ??? ????? .???????? ?
??? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ????? ?? ???????
) ?????? 1990 - 2011 .(
) ???? 1 ) ????? ?? ??????? ????? ????
1990 - 2011 (
????? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ??????? ???
???? ????
??????? ???
*????????
1990 224 6373 203 186
1991 223 6780 201 189
1992 241 6932 205 198
1993 254 7169 212 212
1994 262 9406 230 251
1995 295 10147 280 263
1996 324 13699 300 291
1997 335 16181 326 298
1998 380 17247 371 309
1999 422 19390 390 356
2000 433 19699 397 370
2001 472 19246 399 354
2002 462 19389 403 376
2003 452 19699 426 374
2004 463 19945 466 448
2005 470 20827 431 525
2006 476 21609 441 602
2007 470 21857 536 675
2008 481 22507 585 776
2009 485 23113 653 773
2010 487 25575 690 775
2011 490 26850 763 804
???? ?????
??????
??????
4.4 % 6.4 % 5.5 % 7.1 %
?????? ) : 1 ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? ( ) 1990 - (2010 .
) 2 ?????? ??????? ????? ( (2008) ) .??????? ???????? ?????? 3 ?????? ??? ???????? (
1990 - 2000 ???????? ????? ????? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ????
?????? ??? ?? ????????.????? ????? ??????? 2000 - 2010 ) ??? ?????? ?? ???? 2 .(
????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ??????? ?????? ??? ??
?????? ??? 1990 - 2011 ?? ??????? ????? ??
?
???? ?? ???????? ???? ?? .??????? ???? ?????
?? ????? ?? ??????? ????? 224 ???
?
????? 1990 ????? 6373 ??? ???? 490 ?????
?
?????
26850 ??? ???? 2011 ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ???????? ?? ??? ????????? ????? ?
????? 5000 ????? ????? ???? 2012 ???? ?????? ?? ???? ????? ????) ????? ?????? ??
:??????? 2012 ????? ???? ??????? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ?( 4.5
????? ??? ??? ???? ????? ??? ??????? ??? ?
?
????? % 6.4 ?? ???????? ???? ? .
?
????? %
????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ???? 332 ??? ??? ?% ?? ??????? ????? ?? ???????? ?
?? ????? 186 ???
?
????? 1990 ??? 804 ???
?
????? 1 201 ?? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? .
????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? 7.1 ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???? ? .
?
????? %
40 ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45
?? ????? ?? ???????? ???????? ??????? 203 ??? 1990 ??? 763 ??? 1 201 ??? ??? ????
??? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? 5.5 ?? ????? ????? ?????? ???? .
?
????? %
????? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ??????
??? ?????? 4.4 ???????? % 5.5 ? ???????? ??????? 7.1 ?? ???????? % ????? ??? ?????? ???
?? ???????? ????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ???? ????? ??
.??????? ????? ???? ?? ??????? ????? ?????
????? ?? ??????? ????? ????? :??????
???????? ???????? ???? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????? ???? ???????? ??????
????? ?????? ?????? ??? ?? ????? ?????????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ???? ??????
????? ?? ?????? ???? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ??????
???? ??? ???? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ?????
?
????? .????? ???????? ???????? ?
:???????) ?????? ?????? ?????????? ??????? ??? ??? ?? ?????? ??? ??????? 2005 (
?????? ??? ???????? ????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ???? ??????? ????? ??????
?? ???? ???????? ????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????? ????? ???????? ??????? ?????? ??
?????? ???? ???????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ????? .???????
) ?????? ????? ???? ?????? (Vanhove:2005 ??????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ???????? ????? .
:?????? ???) ??????? ????? ??? ???? ???? 1996 ) ( Reece:2008 :???? ???? (
1 . ??????? ????? ??????? ??? ???????? ????? ????? ????? :?????????
.????? ??? ???????
2 . .???????? ??????? ??????? ????????? ?????? :???????? ???????
3 . ??? ??? ????? ???? ???????? ??????? ?????? ??? :????????? ???????
? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ????????? ??????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ??????? ??????
.??????? ????????? ???
4 . ??????? ???????? ??????? ???????? ???? ? ??????? ?????? :???????? ???????
.????????? ??????? ???
5 . ?????? ???????? ????? ????? ??????? ?? ?????? :??????? ???????? ?????
? ????? ?? ?????? ??????? ??? ?? .??????? ????
?????? ????
?
???? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ??????
) ?????? ???? ??????? ?????? ???? ??????? ???? 2 ????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ???? (
???? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ?? .?????? ?????? ???? ??????? ???? ?????? ????
?
???? ????? ??
?
????
?? ????? ??? ????? ???????? ?????? 577.4 ??? ???? ??? 1990 ??? 3.9 ??? ???? ?????
2011 ????? ??? ?? ?????? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? . 10.5 ???
?
????? %
?????? ???? ????? ???????? ???? 30 ?? ????? ?????? ??? ???????? ?????? ?? % ????? ????
?
?????? 65 ) ?????? ??? ?? ?????? % Fischer, et. al., 2009 .(
?? ??? ???? ??????? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ???? (?????? ????? ) ???????? ??????? ???? ?????
???? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? 4.6 ???? ???? ?? ???? ???????? ?? ?? .??????? ???? ???
? ????? ????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??? ?
)???? Fischer et. al,:2009 ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ( 3.9 %
??????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ???????? ???? ?? ?? ??
?
?????? ????? ?????? ????? ??????
????? ?? ?????? ?????? 14 % ??????? ??? ?????? ????? ???????? ?????? ?? 5 ???? ????? %
?? ????? ?? ???????? ?????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??? 54 ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? %
??????? ????? ????? ??????? ?????? ???? .????????? ???? ?????? ??????? ?? ???????
????? ??? ???????? ????? ?? 10.5 ??????? ????? ?????? ?? % 4.4 ? ??????? % 5.5 %
? ???????? ???????? ??????? 7.1 ???? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ??????? %
?? ??? ??? ???? ???? .?????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ???????? ????
????? ????? ?????? ???? 2010 ? 2011 ? ????? ?? ???? ? 38.1 ? % 34.5 .??????? ??? %
) ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ??? 3 ) ( 4 ??????? ?????? ?? ???? ????? (
?????????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ?? ?? ??????? ?? ?? ??
?
????? ?????? ??????? ??
??????? ???? ????? 2011 ? ?? ??? ? .
?
???? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ????? ? ??????? ?????
????? ??? ???? ???????? ????? ?????????? ?????? ????? ???????? ??????? ?????
??? ???? ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ??????????? 1.3 ?? ???? ????? ? ???? ????? 51
????? ????? ??? ???? ??? 2010 ?? ???? .
?
???? ????? ?
) ???? 2 ) ????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? 1990 - 2011 (
????? ?????? ??? ?????? ???? ??????? ?????
????????
1990 577.446 - 5.7
1991 439.481 23.9 - 5.9
1992 699.262 59.1 4.7
1993 774.871 10.8 4.8
1994 857.610 10.6 4.4
1995 1.074.548 25.3 3.7
1996 1.102.752 2.6 3.5
1997 1.127.028 2.2 3.8
ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45 41
1998 1.256.428 11.5 4.1
1999 1.357.822 8.1 4.2
2000 1.500.879 10.5 4.2
2001 1.477.679 - 1.6 4.6
2002 2.292.544 55.1 4.0
2003 2.246.155 2.2 - 4.4
2004 2.833.850 26.2 5.2
2005 2.986.330 5.4 4.5
2006 3.225.143 8.0 4.4
2007 3.599.025 11.6 4.2
2008 3.728.724 3.6 4.5
2009 3.789.896 1.6 4.5
2010 4.557.024 6.1 4.5
2011 3.977.304 -12.7 4.3
???? ?????
??????
-- 10.5 % 4.5
:?????? ) ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? 1990 - 2011 .(
???? ??? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ???????? ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ???? ?? ?????
?????? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ???? ??? ???? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????? ????? ???
?????? ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ??? .?????
??? ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ?? .??????? ???????? 1991 )
?
????? ??? - 23 (%
? ??? ?? ??? ??????? ??? .?????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ???
?
?????
?
???? ??? ????? 2001 ) -
1.6 ??? ????? ????? ??? ???? ??? ? (% 2001 ????? ?? ??? ????????? ??????? ??????? ??
) ???? ?? ????? ??? ????? ??????? ?????? ??? 3 ?????? ????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ??? .(
?????? ????????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??
????? ?????? ????? 12.7 ??? % 2011 ??????? ??????? ?????? ???? ???????? ??? ????? ??????
??? ??????? ?????? ??? ???????? ????? ??????? .?????? ??????? ???? ??? ??? ??????
? ????? ??? ???? ?? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ?????????? ????? ???????? ???????? ??????
.????? ?????? ???? ???????
?????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? :??????
?????? ???? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ????? ??????? ??????? ???? ???????
?????? ????????? ???????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??????????? ????????? ?????
?
??????
?
??????
???????? ??????? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????? .??????? ??????? ?????? ????????
??????? ???????? ????????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??? ???????
???? ????????? ???????? ??? ???????? ??? ????? ??? ??????? .????? ???????? ????
?????? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??????? ??????????? ?????
??? ???? ??????? 1.3 ?? ???? ????? ? ???? ????? 51 ????? ????? ??? ???? ??? 2010 ?
?
?
???????
?
????? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????? ? .???????? ???????? ?????
????? ? ??????? ????? ?? ???????? ??????? ????? ???? ???? ??????????? ????? ??????? ???
??? ????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ????? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ????
?????? . ??????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ???????? ????????? ?????? ????????? ??
.???????? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ??????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ?????? ???????
1 . ?????? ????? ??? ??????? ???
?????? ??? ???????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ???
?
?????
?
????? ??????? ????? ????
?????? :????? ????? ???????? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ????????? ?????? ????????? ?
??? ?????? ????? ??? ??????? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ??? ????????
????????? ????????? ?????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???????? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????
.????? ????????
?? ???????? ???? ?????? ???? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? 11 ?????? ?? %
?? ?????? ??? ??????? ?????? 1990 - 2011 ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? . 7.6 ??? % 1991
?? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ???? ??? GDP 14.8 ??? % 2010 ??? ????? .
???? ?????? ???? ?? ??????? ??????? ??????? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???
?? ??????? ?????? ?? ???????? ???? ??? ????????? ??????? GDP ??? ???? ?????? ??
????? ???? 7.6 ??? % 1991 ?? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ??????? ???? ??? 339.8
??? ????? ????? 1990 ??? 216.1 ??? 1991 ??? . ??????? ?????? ??
?
???? ?????? ?? ??
?? GDP ??? ??????? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ??? ?????? ?? 1994 ?? 9.7 ??? % 9.9 ? %
10.1 ? 11.2 ?????? ?? % 1995 ? 1996 ? 1997 ?? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ??? .??????? ???
) ?????? ??? ???????? ????? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ???? 1994 - 1997 :??????? ????? ) (
1997 ??? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ??????? ??? .( 8.6 %
?? GDP ??? 2001 ???? ??? .???????? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ????
?? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??????? ???????? 512.2 ???? ??? ????? ? 2000 ???
496.7 ??? 2001 ?? ??????? ???
?
??????? ??????? ???????? ?????? ????? ???
?
???? ???? ????
.?????
) ???? 3 ) ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? 1990 - 2011 (
42 ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45
????? ??????? ??????
???????
(GDP %)
??????? ?????
????? ????????
????? ??????? ???
*???????? ?????????
????? ????????
?????
12.7 339.8 - 1990
7.6 216.1 - 1991
8.9 314.3 - 1992
10.2 390.2 - 1993
9.7 409.4 59 1994
9.9 492.5 37.4 1995
10.1 527.2 48.6 1996
11.2 548.8 118.6 1997
11.1 546.1 208.1 1998
10.6 564.3 99.2 1999
9.7 512.2 56.2 2000
8.6 496.7 60.5 2001
8.3 743.2 3 2002
8.1 751.1 12.3 2003
11.6 943.0 21.4 2004
11.2 1021.6 46.9 2005
11.4 1460.8 250 2006
13.9 1638.9 401.9 2007
14.0 2088.9 701.1 2008
14.7 2066.9 200 2009
14.8 2545.2 - 2010
14.7 2129.7 - 2011
?????? : ) 1 ) ?????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? ( 1990 - 2010 ( ) 2 ????? (
) ???????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ??????? 2000 - 2011 ??????? ?????? ??? ???????? *
) 1990 - 1993 )? ( 2010 - 2011 .(
??????? ?????? ?? ???????
?
?????????
?
????? ????? ???? ??????? ?? ????????? ?????? ??????
?
???? ???????? ???? ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ????? ???? ??? ??????
?????? ???? ???? ?????????? 59 ??? ????? ????? 1994 ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ????? ?
2008 ??? ???? 701.1 ?? ?????????? ??? ????? ??? .????? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ??????
) ???? ?? ???????? ???? ?? .?????????? ??? ???? ??????? ????? ?? ???????? ???? ??? 4 ?? (
???? ??????? ??????? ?????? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ???? 40 ??? .??????? ????? ?????? ?? %
?????? ???????? ?????? ???? ?? ???????? ???? ???? 63 ?? % ???????? ?????????? ??????
??? 2008 - 2009 :?????? ??????? ?????) 2009 .(
???? ) 4 ?????? ????? ?????
?????? ????? ??? 2008 / 2009
?????? ?????? ?????
16.7 ??????
22.3 ??????? ??????
11.0 ???????
8.7 ???
4.6 ?????
8.4 ????? ?????
23.6 ????
4.7 ????
100 ???????
?????? )?????? ??????? ????? : 2009 .???????? ?????? (
2 ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? .
?????? ??? ???? ?? ???????? ????? ???? ??? ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? ????
??? ????? ???????? ???????? ??? ?? ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??
???? ??? ???????? ?????? ???? ??? ???????? ????? ??????? ???? ???? ?? ??? ???????
????? ? ??????? ?????? ?? ?????? ????? .?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ????? ?????????
??? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ???
?
????? ?????? ?????? ???? ??? ???????? ????? ??? ?????? ???
?? ?????? ?????? ??? ???????? ???????? ????? ???????? ???? ??? ??? ????? ?? ?????????
??? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ????? ??????
:??????? ??????) ?????? 2005 .(
) ?????? ???? 5 ????? ( ?????? ??? ?????? ????????? ????? ??? ??????? ????? ????????
1990 - 2011 ?????? ????? ???????? ???????? ?????????? ????????? ???? ???? ?????
.???????? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ????? ???????? ??????? ?? ????????? ????????
?? ??????? ?????? ????? ??? ???????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ????????? ?????
?
????? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ?????? ????? ??? ???????
.???? ??????? ???? ???? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????????? ????? ??? ??? ????? ???
? ??????? ???????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ?
799 ????? ?? ?????? ?? ???????? ??????? ?????? ????? ??? ??? ?? ?
?
????? ????? ?????
360 .??????? ???? ???
?
?????
?
??? ????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ????? ?????
???? ????? ??? ?? ??????? ??????? 116.7 ??? ????? ????? 1990 ??? ???? 1534 ?????
??? ????? 2010 ?????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ?????? .
????? ?? ???????? ???? ?? ???????? ????? ??
?
?????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ???????
38 ???????? ?????? ?? % ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ???????? .
?????? ??? ?????? ??? ???????? 25 ?????? ??? ???? ??? ?? % 12 ??? ??????? ????? %
:??????? ?????) ??????? ???? 2009 ?? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ???? .(
??? .??????? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ???? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ??? ??
?
???? ????
.????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??? ???? ???????
) ???? 5 ??????? ???????
??????? ????? ????
(%) ???????? ???
???????
???????
????????
?????
??????
???????
????????
?????
?????
???????
????????
?????
?????
48.1 116.7 223.1 339.8 1990
28.1 24.1 191.9 216.1 1991
37.9 76.2 238.1 314.3 1992
45.1 151.1 239.1 390.2 1993
ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45 43
40.8 152.3 257.1 409.4 1994
37.3 193.9 298.6 492.5 1995
40.9 257.6 270.2 527.2 1996
42.1 266.2 282.6 548.8 1997
42.9 298.0 250.5 548.5 1998
43.0 311.8 252.5 564.3 1999
38.1 236.9 275.3 512.2 2000
31.1 198.6 298.1 496.7 2001
37.8 447.9 295.3 743.2 2002
34.3 482.6 268.5 751.1 2003
34.1 571.6 371.4 943.0 2004
33.5 606.7 414.9 1021.6 2005
37.3 864.4 593.4 1460.8 2006
38.3 1013.1 625.8 1638.9 2007
36.5 1376.6 712.3 2088.9 2008
35.6 1245.1 821.8 2066.9 2009
35.7 1534.7 1010.5 2545.2 2010
35.1 890.7 1239 2129.7 2011
?????? ): 1 ) ?????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? ( 1990 - 2011 ) ( 2 ??????? ????? (
) ???????? ???????? ?????? ??????? 2000 - 2011 .(
3 ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? .
??????? ???? ?? ???????? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ??????? ??? ?? ????? ???? ?????
????? ?????? ????? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ???????
????? ???????? ??????? ????? ??????? ?? ??? ???????? ??? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ????
?? ??????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ????? ??????? ?????? .??????? ?????
??????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????
:?????? ? ???? ???) ???? 2009
1 ?? ??? :???????? ??????? . ?????? ?????? ???????? ??????? ??? ???????? ????? ??? ??
???? ????????? ????????? ???????? ?? ???????? ???? ??? ??????? ???????? ?????
.??????? ?????? ???? ???? ????????
2 ???????? ???? ?? ????????? ????? ??? ???? ????? ??? :???????? ??? ??????? .
?????? ?? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ???????? ????? ???
.??????
???? ?? ???????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ?? ???????? ??????? ????
???? ????? ???? ????? ???? ??? ??? ?? ????????? ???????? ????? ?? ???????? ???????
??????? ???? ?? ??????? ???????? ??? ???????? ????? ??? ??? ??? ???????? ?????
??????? ?????? ??? ????????? ???????? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ?
?
?????? ??????? ?????
:??????? ???? ???) ??????? ?????? ???? 2009 ????? ??? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ??? (
??? .????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ???????? ??????? ??? ?
????? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ?? ???????? ????? ???? ???????
??? ????? ??? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ?? ???????? ??????? ?? ????? ?????
?? ??????? ???? ?? ???????? 83 ??? ???? ??? 1990
?
?????? ??? 41.8 ??? ???? ??? 2011
?
?????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ?? ????? ?? ?? 20 ????
?
????? ??? ???? ???
????? ??? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ???? 1.2 ???? ???? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ?? %
?? ???? ??????? 800 ?? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ???? .??????? ????????? ???????
????? ???
?
????? ?????? ????? ??? ?????? ????? ??????? ???????? 55 ?????) ???? ???
:?????? ??????? 2009 ????? ?? ???????? ??????? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ( 36 ?????? ?? %
??? ???????? ??
?
????? ??????? ????? .????
??? ? ?????? ????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??? ?????? ?????
?? 81 ??????? ??????? ???? ??? ????????? ????? ?? % 19 ?? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?%
?? ?? ?????? ?????? ???? ?? ???????? ???? ??? .???????? ???????? ??????? ????? ??????? ??
?????? ?? 10 ??????? ???????? ??????? ?????? .??????? ???? ?? ???????? ?????? ?? %
???? ????? ??????? ?????? ????? 41 ????? ??????? ????? % 37 ???????? ?????? ?????? %
???????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ?????
:?????? ??????? ?????) ????? ?????? 2010 .(
?? ?????? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ?? ?????? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ????? ????
?????? ??? .??????? ????????? ??????? ????????? ????????? ???????? ?? ???? ????????
???????? ??? ????? ??? ??? ?? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ?????? ????
.??????? ?? ??????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??????
??? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ????
???? ??? ??? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ??
:???????? )??????? 2001 ????? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ????? ??? ???? ??? .( 3 - 4 ?? ????
?????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ?????? 2 :????????) ????? ?? ???? 1991 ?? ???? ?(
?????? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ??? 120 ?? ???? ???
44 ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45
? ????? ? 10 )???? ????? ???? ?? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? %
2009 : Fischer et.al., ??? ????????? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ??? ?? ??? ?????? ????? .(
??????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ???? 260 ?????? ??? ???? ?????
??? ?? ??? ?? 11 ) ?????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ?? % (WTO:2009 .
) ???? 6 ) ??????? ?????? ?? ??????? ???? 1990 - 2009 (
(???? ???) ???????? ???????
?????
8.3 1990
8.5 1991
8.9 1992
9.1 1993
11.1 1994
13.1 1995
15.2 1996
16.4 1997
17.6 1998
19.4 1999
20.1 2000
21.5 2001
22.2 2002
22.1 2003
23.5 2004
29.4 2005
31.1 2006
34.5 2007
38.3 2008
40.1 2009
41.9 2010
41.8 2011
?????? ): 1 ) ?????? ?????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? ( 1990 - 2009 ( . ) 2 ????? (
???? ?????? ????? ? ???????? ??? ? ?????? ???????? ) ?? 2000 - 2011 ( .
:????????? ???????
:????? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ?????
1 ?? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ??? ???
?
??????
?
????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ??.
?????? ????? 10.5 ??? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ??????? ??????? ????? ???
?
????? %
????? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ????? 4.5 ? % 7.1 .??????? ?? %
2 ??????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? .
????? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ???????? 11 ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? %
?? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ? 10 .??????? ????? ?????? ?? %
3 ??????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ??? ?? .
?
?????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ?????
????? ?? ???????? ???? ?? ???????? ????? ?? 38 % ? ?? .???????? ?????
4 ???????? ???????? ??????? ??????????
?
??????? ??
?
????? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? .
.?????????
:??? ??? ??????? ???? ???
1 ???????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? .
? ???? ?????? ???? ??????? ????????? ??????? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ??? ?
.??????? ???? ?? ??????? ??????? ??? ??????? ???????
2 ????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????????? ???????? ??? ??????? ??? ???? ?????? ????? .
.????? ??????? ??????? ????
3 ??? ???????????? ???? ?????? ????? . ?????? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ??? ????
.???????
4 ??? ???????? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? ??????? ???????? ????? ????? ??? ????? .
.?????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ???????? ????
??????? :
1 . ) ???? ??????? ? ???? ????? ??? 2009 ( ?? ??????? ????? ????????? ????? ????? ?
.????? ?????
2 . ) ?????? ??????? ????? 1990 - 2011 ( ?????? ???????? ?????????? ?????? ????? ?
.????? ?????
3 . ) ?????? ??????? ????? 1997 ( ????? ??????? ?????? ) 1964 - 1995 .(
4 . ????? ) ??????? ???????? ???? ?? 2005 ( ????????? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ????? ?
.????? ? ???? ????????? ?????
5 . ) ?????? ???????? ????? 2009 ( ???????? ??????? ??? ? .??????????
6 . ) ?????? ??? ???????? 2005 ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ??????? ????? ( ????? ????
??????? ??????? ???????? ????? ?????????? ????????? ?????? ????? ? ) 27 ) ????? ( 1 .(
7 . ) ???? ????????? 2001 ( ????? ?? ????????? ??????? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ?
.??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ???????
8 . ) ???? ??????? ??? 1996 ( ??????? ????????? .??? ???????? ?????? ????? ?
9 . ) ???? ????????? 1990 ( ?????? ??????? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ? ??? ???????
.??????? ??????? ? ??????
10 . ???????? ????? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ? ????? ??????? ??? ??????
.?????
11 . ) ?????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????? 2008 .????? ????? ??????? ??????? (
12 . ??????? ??????? ????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ) 1990 - 2011 .????? ?????(
13 . ) ?????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? 2000 - 2011 ???????? ?????? (
.????? ????? ???????????
14 . ) ?????? ??????? ????? 2009 ( ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ) 2007 - 2008 .(
.????? ????? ??????????? ???????? ??????
15 . ??? ???? ????? ???? ) ???? 2012 ??? ?????? ????????? ??????? ?? ?????? ????? (
.????????? ??????
ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45 45
16. Erhel, H. (1985) Trends and Patterns in International Tourism in Jordan,
Unpolished PhD thesis University of Cincinnati, USA.
17. Fischer, J., Khan, I., Khemani, T. Mak, D. and Najmi, R. (2009) Jordan
Tourism Cluster, Microeconomic of Competitiveness (Report).
18. Reece, W. (2008) The Economics of Tourism, Prentice Hall, USA.
19. Kreishan, Fuad (2011) Time-Series Evidence for Tourism-Led Growth
Hypothesis A case Study of Jordan, International Management Review, vol.7
,No. 1,pp:89-93.
20. Vanhove, N. (2005) The Economics of Tourism, Elsevier, UK.
21. World Tourism Organization (2009), UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. 7
(1) January 2009.http://unwto.org/facts/eng/barometer.htm Accessed 1 March,
2009.
doc_823700658.pdf
This study highlights the development in the Jordanian tourism sector, while pointing out the major
changes in this sector and its impact on economic development during the period (1990-2011). The study
revealed that the tourism market has become a vital and dynamic sector in Jordan and witnessed
significant growth in both demand and supply sides. The study showed that the supply side response was
compatible with the level of demand for tourism. Moreover, the study also concluded that the tourism
industry makes a substantial contribution to the Jordanian economy. During the study period, it accounted
for (11.2%) of the GDP, employment in the tourism cluster, including indirect employment was estimated
at around (10%) of the work force. Finally, the contribution of the tourism sector alone in export earnings
amounted to an average of (38%) of the total exports.
2214-4625/$ – see front matter ©2014 Holy Spirit University of Kaslik. Hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aebj.2014.05.005
ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
ScienceDirect
j our nal homepage: www. el sevi er. com/ l ocat e/ aebj
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +962-7964 888 05, Fax: +962-3-2179050
E-mail address: [email protected]
Peer review under responsibility of Holy Spirit University of Kaslik.
Conference Title
?????? ??????? ????? :????? ?? ??????? ????????? 1990 - 2011
The Economics of Tourism in Jordan: A statistical Study during the
Period 1990-2011
?????? ???? .? *
????? ???? ?? ?????? ?????
Dr. Fuad Kreishan*
Al Hussein Bin Talal University, Jordan
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:
Received 04 September 2012
Received in revised form 28 February
2013
Accepted 27 March 2013
Keywords:
Tourism
Jordan
Economics
A B S T R A C T
This study highlights the development in the Jordanian tourism sector, while pointing out the major
changes in this sector and its impact on economic development during the period (1990-2011). The study
revealed that the tourism market has become a vital and dynamic sector in Jordan and witnessed
significant growth in both demand and supply sides. The study showed that the supply side response was
compatible with the level of demand for tourism. Moreover, the study also concluded that the tourism
industry makes a substantial contribution to the Jordanian economy. During the study period, it accounted
for (11.2%) of the GDP, employment in the tourism cluster, including indirect employment was estimated
at around (10%) of the work force. Finally, the contribution of the tourism sector alone in export earnings
amounted to an average of (38%) of the total exports.
© 2014 Holy Spirit University of Kaslik. Hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
38 ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45
1 - :?????
? ?? ????????? ????????? ????????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ??????? ????? ???
???? ?????? ????? ????????? ?
?
?????? ??????? ????? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ????
???? ???????
?
???? .??????? ??????? ?? ??????? )?????? ??????? ???? (WTO ? ???? ?? ?????
????? ??????? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ???? 2011 ????? ?? 15 ?????? ?????? ?? %
) ??????? (GDP ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? 265 ???? ?????
????? ?? ??? ?????? ??? 11 ?????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ?? % ??????? ????? ? 7 ?? %
???????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ????? ????? ????? ???? ???
??? ??? ?????? ????? ??
?
???? 2009 ??? ??????? ???????? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ???
16 ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ??? ?? % 10 ) % 2009 World Tourism Organization: ( .
???? ?? ????? ?? ????? ???
?
???? ?????????? ???????? ??? ?? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ???
???? ?????? ???????? ???????? ???????? ????????? ???????
?
????? ????? ????? ?????? ?????
?? ???? .(???????? ?????? ????? ) ????????? ???????? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ???
??????? ?????? ????? ??? ?? ?? ???? ?? ?????? ??????? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ???????? ??????? ???
??? ??? .??????? ?????????? ????????
?
???? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ??????????
1998 ?????? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ???????? ?? ?????? ???
??? ??? .??????? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ???? 2004 ??????? ????? ????
????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????????? ?????????
?????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ? 2010 .
?? ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ????? ????????
?
???? ??????? ?? ????? ??? ???
????? ????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ??? ?? ??????? ??????? ????? ????? ???
13.5 :?????? ???????? ????? )% 2009 ????? ????? .( ?? ?????? ??????? ?? ???????
????? ??? ??????? ????????? ????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???????? ???
??????? ??? ?? ??????? ????????? ????? :??? ???? ??????? ??? ??? ???? .??????? ?????
??? ??????? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ??????? ??????
) ?????? ??? ?????? 1990 - 2011 .(
? ???? ???????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ?? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? :?????? ?? ??????? ?????
???? ????? (Fischer,et al.,:2009) ????? ?? ??????? ???? ??????? ?????? . ?????? ???
?? ????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ???????????? ??????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ?? ?????
.????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???? ?????? ????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????
) ???????? ????? 2001 ????? ?? ????????? ??????? ?? ??????? ??? ??????? ?????? ??? (
) ?????? ??? 1980 - 1999 ???? ???? ?? ? ( ?????? ??? ???????? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ???
?????? ??????? ??????? ???????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ??
.??????? ?????? ????? ????? ?????????
) ???????? ????? 1991 ??? ??????? ???? ??? ??????? ??????? ??? ??????? ??? ?????? (
????? ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????? ??? ?? ?????? ??????? ?? ??????? ???
.????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???????? ?????? ???????
) ????? ????? 1985 Erhel: ??????? ??? ??????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ???? ??? (
?? ???????? ?????? ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ??? ??????? ??? ?? ?????
) ?????? ??? ????? ????????? ?????? ???????? ??????? ????? 1964 - 1983 .(
) ?????? ????? Kreishan:2011 ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ??????? ??? ???? ??? (
?? ?????? ????? ???????? ???? ??????? ?????? ???????? ????? ??? ??????? ??????? ?????
) ?????? ??? ???? ??????? ???????? 1970 - 2009 ??? ??????? ???? ???? ??????? ???? ??? (
????? ??? ??????? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???????? ?????
.????? ?? ???????? ????? ????? ??????? ???? ??? ???????
? ??? ?? ????? ???? ???? ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ??????? ????? ??? ????? ???????
??????? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ??? ?????????? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ???????? ????
????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ????? ??? ?? ???? ??????? ??????? ??
??? ) ?????? ??? ??????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? 1990 - 2011 ???? ???? ??? ??????? .(
:????? ?????? ??? ?????? ???????
1 ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ??.
2 ??????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ?? .
??????? ????????? :
???????
?????
?????????
????
????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??? ???? ???? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ????
?????? ? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ??????? 1990 - 2011 ????? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ??? .
? ??????? ??????? ????? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ??? ?? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ????? .?????? ??????
??? ??? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ???????? ????????? ???????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ???? ?? ?
??? ????? ??????? .??????? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ??? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ???
? ? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ??????
11.2 % . ??? ?? ?? ?????? ??? ??? ?????? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ???????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ? 10 ?????? ?? %
.????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ??????
?? ?? ???????? ???? ???????? ????? ??
?
?????? ??????? ??? 38 % .???????? ?????? ??
ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45 39
?? ????? ?????? ??????? ? ???????? ????? ??? ?? ???????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???? ?????
????? ????????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ?????? .??????? ????? ???? ???? ????????
????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ???? ???? ????? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ?? ??????? ?????
?? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ??????? ???????? ????? :??????? ? .?????? ??????? ????? ???????
????? ?? ??????? ????? ????? :? ???
????? ???? ?? ?? ????? ??? ????
?
??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ??????? ?? ????? ???
???? ??????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ????? ???????? ???????? ??????? ???
?? ???????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ????? ???? ??????? ????? ???? ????
??????? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ?????????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ??????
??????? ???????? ?????? ???? ??? ????????? ?????? ?????? ??? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ???
??? ???????? ????? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????
?
????? ?????? ?? ???? ???? ???????
?????? ) ??????? ????? ??????? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ???????? ??????? ?????
:??????? 2005 ?????? ???? ( Vanhove:2005) ? ??? ????? ???? ??? ??? ( ???
:??? ????? ??????
1 ???????? ????????? ?????? ? ????????? ??????? ??????? ????? :??????? ???????? ??????? .
.??????
2 ?????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ????? ???? ??? ????? :??????? ?????? .
.??????? ???????? ??????? ????? ???????? ???????
3 ?? . .????????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ????? :???????? ??????
????? ??????? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ??????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ???
? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ??????? ???? ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ???
??????? ??????? ???????? ????? ?????? ???? ????? ???? ??? ????? .???????? ?
??? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ????? ?? ???????
) ?????? 1990 - 2011 .(
) ???? 1 ) ????? ?? ??????? ????? ????
1990 - 2011 (????? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ??????? ???
???? ????
??????? ???
*????????
1990 224 6373 203 186
1991 223 6780 201 189
1992 241 6932 205 198
1993 254 7169 212 212
1994 262 9406 230 251
1995 295 10147 280 263
1996 324 13699 300 291
1997 335 16181 326 298
1998 380 17247 371 309
1999 422 19390 390 356
2000 433 19699 397 370
2001 472 19246 399 354
2002 462 19389 403 376
2003 452 19699 426 374
2004 463 19945 466 448
2005 470 20827 431 525
2006 476 21609 441 602
2007 470 21857 536 675
2008 481 22507 585 776
2009 485 23113 653 773
2010 487 25575 690 775
2011 490 26850 763 804
???? ?????
??????
??????
4.4 % 6.4 % 5.5 % 7.1 %
?????? ) : 1 ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? ( ) 1990 - (2010 .
) 2 ?????? ??????? ????? ( (2008) ) .??????? ???????? ?????? 3 ?????? ??? ???????? (
1990 - 2000 ???????? ????? ????? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ????
?????? ??? ?? ????????.????? ????? ??????? 2000 - 2010 ) ??? ?????? ?? ???? 2 .(
????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ??????? ?????? ??? ??
?????? ??? 1990 - 2011 ?? ??????? ????? ??
?
???? ?? ???????? ???? ?? .??????? ???? ?????
?? ????? ?? ??????? ????? 224 ???
?
????? 1990 ????? 6373 ??? ???? 490 ?????
?
?????
26850 ??? ???? 2011 ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ???????? ?? ??? ????????? ????? ?
????? 5000 ????? ????? ???? 2012 ???? ?????? ?? ???? ????? ????) ????? ?????? ??
:??????? 2012 ????? ???? ??????? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ?( 4.5
????? ??? ??? ???? ????? ??? ??????? ??? ?
?
????? % 6.4 ?? ???????? ???? ? .
?
????? %
????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ???? 332 ??? ??? ?% ?? ??????? ????? ?? ???????? ?
?? ????? 186 ???
?
????? 1990 ??? 804 ???
?
????? 1 201 ?? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? .
????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? 7.1 ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??????? ???????? ???? ? .
?
????? %
40 ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45
?? ????? ?? ???????? ???????? ??????? 203 ??? 1990 ??? 763 ??? 1 201 ??? ??? ????
??? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? 5.5 ?? ????? ????? ?????? ???? .
?
????? %
????? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ??????
??? ?????? 4.4 ???????? % 5.5 ? ???????? ??????? 7.1 ?? ???????? % ????? ??? ?????? ???
?? ???????? ????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ???? ????? ??
.??????? ????? ???? ?? ??????? ????? ?????
????? ?? ??????? ????? ????? :??????
???????? ???????? ???? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????? ???? ???????? ??????
????? ?????? ?????? ??? ?? ????? ?????????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ???? ??????
????? ?? ?????? ???? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ??????
???? ??? ???? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ?????
?
????? .????? ???????? ???????? ?
:???????) ?????? ?????? ?????????? ??????? ??? ??? ?? ?????? ??? ??????? 2005 (
?????? ??? ???????? ????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ???? ??????? ????? ??????
?? ???? ???????? ????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????? ????? ???????? ??????? ?????? ??
?????? ???? ???????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ????? .???????
) ?????? ????? ???? ?????? (Vanhove:2005 ??????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ???????? ????? .
:?????? ???) ??????? ????? ??? ???? ???? 1996 ) ( Reece:2008 :???? ???? (
1 . ??????? ????? ??????? ??? ???????? ????? ????? ????? :?????????
.????? ??? ???????
2 . .???????? ??????? ??????? ????????? ?????? :???????? ???????
3 . ??? ??? ????? ???? ???????? ??????? ?????? ??? :????????? ???????
? ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ????????? ??????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ??????? ??????
.??????? ????????? ???
4 . ??????? ???????? ??????? ???????? ???? ? ??????? ?????? :???????? ???????
.????????? ??????? ???
5 . ?????? ???????? ????? ????? ??????? ?? ?????? :??????? ???????? ?????
? ????? ?? ?????? ??????? ??? ?? .??????? ????
?????? ????
?
???? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ??????
) ?????? ???? ??????? ?????? ???? ??????? ???? 2 ????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ???? (
???? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ?? .?????? ?????? ???? ??????? ???? ?????? ????
?
???? ????? ??
?
????
?? ????? ??? ????? ???????? ?????? 577.4 ??? ???? ??? 1990 ??? 3.9 ??? ???? ?????
2011 ????? ??? ?? ?????? ????? ?? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? . 10.5 ???
?
????? %
?????? ???? ????? ???????? ???? 30 ?? ????? ?????? ??? ???????? ?????? ?? % ????? ????
?
?????? 65 ) ?????? ??? ?? ?????? % Fischer, et. al., 2009 .(
?? ??? ???? ??????? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ???? (?????? ????? ) ???????? ??????? ???? ?????
???? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? 4.6 ???? ???? ?? ???? ???????? ?? ?? .??????? ???? ???
? ????? ????? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??? ?
)???? Fischer et. al,:2009 ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ( 3.9 %
??????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ???????? ???? ?? ?? ??
?
?????? ????? ?????? ????? ??????
????? ?? ?????? ?????? 14 % ??????? ??? ?????? ????? ???????? ?????? ?? 5 ???? ????? %
?? ????? ?? ???????? ?????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??? 54 ???????? ?????? ?????? ?? %
??????? ????? ????? ??????? ?????? ???? .????????? ???? ?????? ??????? ?? ???????
????? ??? ???????? ????? ?? 10.5 ??????? ????? ?????? ?? % 4.4 ? ??????? % 5.5 %
? ???????? ???????? ??????? 7.1 ???? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ??????? %
?? ??? ??? ???? ???? .?????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ???????? ????
????? ????? ?????? ???? 2010 ? 2011 ? ????? ?? ???? ? 38.1 ? % 34.5 .??????? ??? %
) ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??? ??? ???? ??? 3 ) ( 4 ??????? ?????? ?? ???? ????? (
?????????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ?? ?? ??????? ?? ?? ??
?
????? ?????? ??????? ??
??????? ???? ????? 2011 ? ?? ??? ? .
?
???? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ????? ? ??????? ?????
????? ??? ???? ???????? ????? ?????????? ?????? ????? ???????? ??????? ?????
??? ???? ??????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ??????????? 1.3 ?? ???? ????? ? ???? ????? 51
????? ????? ??? ???? ??? 2010 ?? ???? .
?
???? ????? ?
) ???? 2 ) ????? ?? ??????? ????? ????
1990 - 2011 (????? ?????? ??? ?????? ???? ??????? ?????
????????
1990 577.446 - 5.7
1991 439.481 23.9 - 5.9
1992 699.262 59.1 4.7
1993 774.871 10.8 4.8
1994 857.610 10.6 4.4
1995 1.074.548 25.3 3.7
1996 1.102.752 2.6 3.5
1997 1.127.028 2.2 3.8
ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45 41
1998 1.256.428 11.5 4.1
1999 1.357.822 8.1 4.2
2000 1.500.879 10.5 4.2
2001 1.477.679 - 1.6 4.6
2002 2.292.544 55.1 4.0
2003 2.246.155 2.2 - 4.4
2004 2.833.850 26.2 5.2
2005 2.986.330 5.4 4.5
2006 3.225.143 8.0 4.4
2007 3.599.025 11.6 4.2
2008 3.728.724 3.6 4.5
2009 3.789.896 1.6 4.5
2010 4.557.024 6.1 4.5
2011 3.977.304 -12.7 4.3
???? ?????
??????
-- 10.5 % 4.5
:?????? ) ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? 1990 - 2011 .(
???? ??? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ???????? ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ???? ?? ?????
?????? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ???? ??? ???? ?????? ???????? ?????? ????? ????? ???
?????? ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ??? .?????
??? ?????? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ?? .??????? ???????? 1991 )
?
????? ??? - 23 (%
? ??? ?? ??? ??????? ??? .?????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ???
?
?????
?
???? ??? ????? 2001 ) -
1.6 ??? ????? ????? ??? ???? ??? ? (% 2001 ????? ?? ??? ????????? ??????? ??????? ??
) ???? ?? ????? ??? ????? ??????? ?????? ??? 3 ?????? ????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ??? .(
?????? ????????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ??? ???? ???? ??
????? ?????? ????? 12.7 ??? % 2011 ??????? ??????? ?????? ???? ???????? ??? ????? ??????
??? ??????? ?????? ??? ???????? ????? ??????? .?????? ??????? ???? ??? ??? ??????
? ????? ??? ???? ?? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ?????????? ????? ???????? ???????? ??????
.????? ?????? ???? ???????
?????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? :??????
?????? ???? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ????? ??????? ??????? ???? ???????
?????? ????????? ???????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??????????? ????????? ?????
?
??????
?
??????
???????? ??????? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?????? .??????? ??????? ?????? ????????
??????? ???????? ????????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??? ???????
???? ????????? ???????? ??? ???????? ??? ????? ??? ??????? .????? ???????? ????
?????? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ??????? ??????? ??????????? ?????
??? ???? ??????? 1.3 ?? ???? ????? ? ???? ????? 51 ????? ????? ??? ???? ??? 2010 ?
?
?
???????
?
????? ????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????? ? .???????? ???????? ?????
????? ? ??????? ????? ?? ???????? ??????? ????? ???? ???? ??????????? ????? ??????? ???
??? ????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ????? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ????
?????? . ??????? ??? ??? ??????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ???????? ????????? ?????? ????????? ??
.???????? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ??????? ??????? ???????? ??????? ?????? ???????
1 . ?????? ????? ??? ??????? ???
?????? ??? ???????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ???
?
?????
?
????? ??????? ????? ????
?????? :????? ????? ???????? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ????????? ?????? ????????? ?
??? ?????? ????? ??? ??????? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ??? ????????
????????? ????????? ?????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???????? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????
.????? ????????
?? ???????? ???? ?????? ???? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? 11 ?????? ?? %
?? ?????? ??? ??????? ?????? 1990 - 2011 ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? . 7.6 ??? % 1991
?? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ???? ??? GDP 14.8 ??? % 2010 ??? ????? .
???? ?????? ???? ?? ??????? ??????? ??????? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ???
?? ??????? ?????? ?? ???????? ???? ??? ????????? ??????? GDP ??? ???? ?????? ??
????? ???? 7.6 ??? % 1991 ?? ??????? ????? ????? ??? ??????? ???? ??? 339.8
??? ????? ????? 1990 ??? 216.1 ??? 1991 ??? . ??????? ?????? ??
?
???? ?????? ?? ??
?? GDP ??? ??????? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ??? ?????? ?? 1994 ?? 9.7 ??? % 9.9 ? %
10.1 ? 11.2 ?????? ?? % 1995 ? 1996 ? 1997 ?? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ??? .??????? ???
) ?????? ??? ???????? ????? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ???? 1994 - 1997 :??????? ????? ) (
1997 ??? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ??????? ??? .( 8.6 %
?? GDP ??? 2001 ???? ??? .???????? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ?????? ????
?? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??????? ???????? 512.2 ???? ??? ????? ? 2000 ???
496.7 ??? 2001 ?? ??????? ???
?
??????? ??????? ???????? ?????? ????? ???
?
???? ???? ????
.?????
) ???? 3 ) ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????
1990 - 2011 (42 ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45
????? ??????? ??????
???????
(GDP %)
??????? ?????
????? ????????
????? ??????? ???
*???????? ?????????
????? ????????
?????
12.7 339.8 - 1990
7.6 216.1 - 1991
8.9 314.3 - 1992
10.2 390.2 - 1993
9.7 409.4 59 1994
9.9 492.5 37.4 1995
10.1 527.2 48.6 1996
11.2 548.8 118.6 1997
11.1 546.1 208.1 1998
10.6 564.3 99.2 1999
9.7 512.2 56.2 2000
8.6 496.7 60.5 2001
8.3 743.2 3 2002
8.1 751.1 12.3 2003
11.6 943.0 21.4 2004
11.2 1021.6 46.9 2005
11.4 1460.8 250 2006
13.9 1638.9 401.9 2007
14.0 2088.9 701.1 2008
14.7 2066.9 200 2009
14.8 2545.2 - 2010
14.7 2129.7 - 2011
?????? : ) 1 ) ?????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? ( 1990 - 2010 ( ) 2 ????? (
) ???????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ??????? 2000 - 2011 ??????? ?????? ??? ???????? *
) 1990 - 1993 )? ( 2010 - 2011 .(
??????? ?????? ?? ???????
?
?????????
?
????? ????? ???? ??????? ?? ????????? ?????? ??????
?
???? ???????? ???? ?? ??????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ????? ???? ??? ??????
?????? ???? ???? ?????????? 59 ??? ????? ????? 1994 ??? ??? ???? ???? ??? ????? ?
2008 ??? ???? 701.1 ?? ?????????? ??? ????? ??? .????? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ??????
) ???? ?? ???????? ???? ?? .?????????? ??? ???? ??????? ????? ?? ???????? ???? ??? 4 ?? (
???? ??????? ??????? ?????? ??? ?????? ????? ?? ???? 40 ??? .??????? ????? ?????? ?? %
?????? ???????? ?????? ???? ?? ???????? ???? ???? 63 ?? % ???????? ?????????? ??????
??? 2008 - 2009 :?????? ??????? ?????) 2009 .(
???? ) 4 ?????? ????? ?????
?????? ????? ??? 2008 / 2009
?????? ?????? ?????
16.7 ??????
22.3 ??????? ??????
11.0 ???????
8.7 ???
4.6 ?????
8.4 ????? ?????
23.6 ????
4.7 ????
100 ???????
?????? )?????? ??????? ????? : 2009 .???????? ?????? (
2 ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? .
?????? ??? ???? ?? ???????? ????? ???? ??? ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? ????
??? ????? ???????? ???????? ??? ?? ????????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??
???? ??? ???????? ?????? ???? ??? ???????? ????? ??????? ???? ???? ?? ??? ???????
????? ? ??????? ?????? ?? ?????? ????? .?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ????? ?????????
??? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ???
?
????? ?????? ?????? ???? ??? ???????? ????? ??? ?????? ???
?? ?????? ?????? ??? ???????? ???????? ????? ???????? ???? ??? ??? ????? ?? ?????????
??? ?????? ???? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ????? ??????
:??????? ??????) ?????? 2005 .(
) ?????? ???? 5 ????? ( ?????? ??? ?????? ????????? ????? ??? ??????? ????? ????????
1990 - 2011 ?????? ????? ???????? ???????? ?????????? ????????? ???? ???? ?????
.???????? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ????? ???????? ??????? ?? ????????? ????????
?? ??????? ?????? ????? ??? ???????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ????????? ?????
?
????? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ?????? ????? ??? ???????
.???? ??????? ???? ???? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????????? ????? ??? ??? ????? ???
? ??????? ???????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ?????? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ?
799 ????? ?? ?????? ?? ???????? ??????? ?????? ????? ??? ??? ?? ?
?
????? ????? ?????
360 .??????? ???? ???
?
?????
?
??? ????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ????? ?????
???? ????? ??? ?? ??????? ??????? 116.7 ??? ????? ????? 1990 ??? ???? 1534 ?????
??? ????? 2010 ?????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ??? ?????? .
????? ?? ???????? ???? ?? ???????? ????? ??
?
?????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ???????
38 ???????? ?????? ?? % ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ???? ?? ??? ???????? .
?????? ??? ?????? ??? ???????? 25 ?????? ??? ???? ??? ?? % 12 ??? ??????? ????? %
:??????? ?????) ??????? ???? 2009 ?? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ???? .(
??? .??????? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ???? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ??? ??
?
???? ????
.????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??? ???? ???????
) ???? 5 ??????? ???????
??????? ????? ????
(%) ???????? ???
???????
???????
????????
?????
??????
???????
????????
?????
?????
???????
????????
?????
?????
48.1 116.7 223.1 339.8 1990
28.1 24.1 191.9 216.1 1991
37.9 76.2 238.1 314.3 1992
45.1 151.1 239.1 390.2 1993
ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45 43
40.8 152.3 257.1 409.4 1994
37.3 193.9 298.6 492.5 1995
40.9 257.6 270.2 527.2 1996
42.1 266.2 282.6 548.8 1997
42.9 298.0 250.5 548.5 1998
43.0 311.8 252.5 564.3 1999
38.1 236.9 275.3 512.2 2000
31.1 198.6 298.1 496.7 2001
37.8 447.9 295.3 743.2 2002
34.3 482.6 268.5 751.1 2003
34.1 571.6 371.4 943.0 2004
33.5 606.7 414.9 1021.6 2005
37.3 864.4 593.4 1460.8 2006
38.3 1013.1 625.8 1638.9 2007
36.5 1376.6 712.3 2088.9 2008
35.6 1245.1 821.8 2066.9 2009
35.7 1534.7 1010.5 2545.2 2010
35.1 890.7 1239 2129.7 2011
?????? ): 1 ) ?????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? ( 1990 - 2011 ) ( 2 ??????? ????? (
) ???????? ???????? ?????? ??????? 2000 - 2011 .(
3 ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? .
??????? ???? ?? ???????? ??????? ?? ????? ???? ??????? ??? ?? ????? ???? ?????
????? ?????? ????? ????? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ???????
????? ???????? ??????? ????? ??????? ?? ??? ???????? ??? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ????
?? ??????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ????? ??????? ?????? .??????? ?????
??????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????
:?????? ? ???? ???) ???? 2009
1 ?? ??? :???????? ??????? . ?????? ?????? ???????? ??????? ??? ???????? ????? ??? ??
???? ????????? ????????? ???????? ?? ???????? ???? ??? ??????? ???????? ?????
.??????? ?????? ???? ???? ????????
2 ???????? ???? ?? ????????? ????? ??? ???? ????? ??? :???????? ??? ??????? .
?????? ?? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ???????? ????? ???
.??????
???? ?? ???????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ?? ???????? ??????? ????
???? ????? ???? ????? ???? ??? ??? ?? ????????? ???????? ????? ?? ???????? ???????
??????? ???? ?? ??????? ???????? ??? ???????? ????? ??? ??? ??? ???????? ?????
??????? ?????? ??? ????????? ???????? ?? ?????? ?? ???? ?????? ??? ?
?
?????? ??????? ?????
:??????? ???? ???) ??????? ?????? ???? 2009 ????? ??? ???? ??? ??????? ??? ??? (
??? .????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ???????? ??????? ??? ?
????? ?? ??????? ?? ??? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ?? ???????? ????? ???? ???????
??? ????? ??? ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ?? ???????? ??????? ?? ????? ?????
?? ??????? ???? ?? ???????? 83 ??? ???? ??? 1990
?
?????? ??? 41.8 ??? ???? ??? 2011
?
?????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ?? ????? ?? ?? 20 ????
?
????? ??? ???? ???
????? ??? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ???? 1.2 ???? ???? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ?? %
?? ???? ??????? 800 ?? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ???? .??????? ????????? ???????
????? ???
?
????? ?????? ????? ??? ?????? ????? ??????? ???????? 55 ?????) ???? ???
:?????? ??????? 2009 ????? ?? ???????? ??????? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ( 36 ?????? ?? %
??? ???????? ??
?
????? ??????? ????? .????
??? ? ?????? ????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??? ?????? ?????
?? 81 ??????? ??????? ???? ??? ????????? ????? ?? % 19 ?? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?%
?? ?? ?????? ?????? ???? ?? ???????? ???? ??? .???????? ???????? ??????? ????? ??????? ??
?????? ?? 10 ??????? ???????? ??????? ?????? .??????? ???? ?? ???????? ?????? ?? %
???? ????? ??????? ?????? ????? 41 ????? ??????? ????? % 37 ???????? ?????? ?????? %
???????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ?????
:?????? ??????? ?????) ????? ?????? 2010 .(
?? ?????? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ??? ?? ?????? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ????? ????
?????? ??? .??????? ????????? ??????? ????????? ????????? ???????? ?? ???? ????????
???????? ??? ????? ??? ??? ?? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ?????? ????
.??????? ?? ??????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ??????
??? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ????
???? ??? ??? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ???? ??? ?????? ?? ??
:???????? )??????? 2001 ????? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ????? ??? ???? ??? .( 3 - 4 ?? ????
?????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ?????? 2 :????????) ????? ?? ???? 1991 ?? ???? ?(
?????? ?????? ???? ?? ???? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ??? 120 ?? ???? ???
44 ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45
? ????? ? 10 )???? ????? ???? ?? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? %
2009 : Fischer et.al., ??? ????????? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ??? ?? ??? ?????? ????? .(
??????? ????? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ???? 260 ?????? ??? ???? ?????
??? ?? ??? ?? 11 ) ?????? ?? ????? ??? ????? ?? % (WTO:2009 .
) ???? 6 ) ??????? ?????? ?? ??????? ????
1990 - 2009 ((???? ???) ???????? ???????
?????
8.3 1990
8.5 1991
8.9 1992
9.1 1993
11.1 1994
13.1 1995
15.2 1996
16.4 1997
17.6 1998
19.4 1999
20.1 2000
21.5 2001
22.2 2002
22.1 2003
23.5 2004
29.4 2005
31.1 2006
34.5 2007
38.3 2008
40.1 2009
41.9 2010
41.8 2011
?????? ): 1 ) ?????? ?????? ???????? ??????? ??????? ????? ( 1990 - 2009 ( . ) 2 ????? (
???? ?????? ????? ? ???????? ??? ? ?????? ???????? ) ?? 2000 - 2011 ( .
:????????? ???????
:????? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ?????
1 ?? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ??? ???
?
??????
?
????? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ??.
?????? ????? 10.5 ??? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ?? ??????? ??????? ????? ???
?
????? %
????? ??????? ????? ?? ?????? ????? 4.5 ? % 7.1 .??????? ?? %
2 ??????? ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?????? .
????? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ???? ?? ???????? 11 ??????? ?????? ?????? ?? %
?? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ? 10 .??????? ????? ?????? ?? %
3 ??????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ???????? ?? ????? ??? ?? .
?
?????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?? ??? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ?????
????? ?? ???????? ???? ?? ???????? ????? ?? 38 % ? ?? .???????? ?????
4 ???????? ???????? ??????? ??????????
?
??????? ??
?
????? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? .
.?????????
:??? ??? ??????? ???? ???
1 ???????? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? .
? ???? ?????? ???? ??????? ????????? ??????? ????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ??? ?
.??????? ???? ?? ??????? ??????? ??? ??????? ???????
2 ????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????????? ???????? ??? ??????? ??? ???? ?????? ????? .
.????? ??????? ??????? ????
3 ??? ???????????? ???? ?????? ????? . ?????? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ??? ????
.???????
4 ??? ???????? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? ??????? ???????? ????? ????? ??? ????? .
.?????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ???????? ????
??????? :
1 . ) ???? ??????? ? ???? ????? ??? 2009 ( ?? ??????? ????? ????????? ????? ????? ?
.????? ?????
2 . ) ?????? ??????? ????? 1990 - 2011 ( ?????? ???????? ?????????? ?????? ????? ?
.????? ?????
3 . ) ?????? ??????? ????? 1997 ( ????? ??????? ?????? ) 1964 - 1995 .(
4 . ????? ) ??????? ???????? ???? ?? 2005 ( ????????? ???? ??????? ?? ?????? ????? ?
.????? ? ???? ????????? ?????
5 . ) ?????? ???????? ????? 2009 ( ???????? ??????? ??? ? .??????????
6 . ) ?????? ??? ???????? 2005 ?????? ?? ??????? ????? ??????? ????? ( ????? ????
??????? ??????? ???????? ????? ?????????? ????????? ?????? ????? ? ) 27 ) ????? ( 1 .(
7 . ) ???? ????????? 2001 ( ????? ?? ????????? ??????? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ?
.??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ???????
8 . ) ???? ??????? ??? 1996 ( ??????? ????????? .??? ???????? ?????? ????? ?
9 . ) ???? ????????? 1990 ( ?????? ??????? ?? ??????? ??? ????? ? ??? ???????
.??????? ??????? ? ??????
10 . ???????? ????? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ????? ???? ? ????? ??????? ??? ??????
.?????
11 . ) ?????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????? 2008 .????? ????? ??????? ??????? (
12 . ??????? ??????? ????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ) 1990 - 2011 .????? ?????(
13 . ) ?????? ???????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? 2000 - 2011 ???????? ?????? (
.????? ????? ???????????
14 . ) ?????? ??????? ????? 2009 ( ??????? ????? ?? ??????? ???? ) 2007 - 2008 .(
.????? ????? ??????????? ???????? ??????
15 . ??? ???? ????? ???? ) ???? 2012 ??? ?????? ????????? ??????? ?? ?????? ????? (
.????????? ??????
ARAB ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS JOURNAL 9 (2014) 37–45 45
16. Erhel, H. (1985) Trends and Patterns in International Tourism in Jordan,
Unpolished PhD thesis University of Cincinnati, USA.
17. Fischer, J., Khan, I., Khemani, T. Mak, D. and Najmi, R. (2009) Jordan
Tourism Cluster, Microeconomic of Competitiveness (Report).
18. Reece, W. (2008) The Economics of Tourism, Prentice Hall, USA.
19. Kreishan, Fuad (2011) Time-Series Evidence for Tourism-Led Growth
Hypothesis A case Study of Jordan, International Management Review, vol.7
,No. 1,pp:89-93.
20. Vanhove, N. (2005) The Economics of Tourism, Elsevier, UK.
21. World Tourism Organization (2009), UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. 7
(1) January 2009.http://unwto.org/facts/eng/barometer.htm Accessed 1 March,
2009.
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