The Delivery Question
By: Amit Bhushan Date: 27th May 2017
Misplaced political calculations seems to be rising with the passage of time and more indulging netas ably supported by the commercial news media. The government again seems to be in a mood to believe its own rhetoric that everything is ‘delivered’ and in the process almost ready to repeat some of the mistakes. There seems to be an increasing tilt towards issues that have nearly always managed to snatch defeat from the ‘jaws of victory’ while of its ‘patrakar’ friends’ play out ‘Shining India’ messages. It is anyone’s guess that little action so far has been seen on the bank loan defaulters for instance. Much ink is wasted on the drive against Black money but have not convinced anyone since the benefits of so called demonetizations are yet to be experienced. Any such action would have resulted in businesses being far more focused on productivity & profitability. This would have perhaps led to a bigger chorus of streamlining policies as well as government functioning further but the absence of it depicts that the businesses have adjusted to the new normal and it is only marginally different from the old. So the ‘disruptive expectations’ have ebbed and much of it on account of government’s hype built up which yields little. The waning of this wave of ‘support’ that catapulted it to power is being attempted via rising ‘regressive’ agenda. The makeover pundits probably living in fool’s paradise that the media blitz would allow them to carry the ‘masses’ along, but is highly unlikely since econo-pragmatists are unlikely to ‘ignore’ the regressive agenda for sure and far less support the same. This is all the more true when the economy isn’t sputtering ‘Jobs’.
Basically, the turnaround of the hi-employment sectors like construction, Readymade garments haven’t really gone the way as expected. The Housing sector which was expecting a boost following a retreat of the interest rates, hasn’t looked up as desired and a spate of job losses or at least negligible gains in the organized sector have played truant. The gains, if any in the unorganized sector have not yet readied the banks/lenders with enough confidence to lend as signs of digital payments or transaction records are yet to take off and have shown very limited gains so far. Hopefully, the GST and e-payments might help the sector but that would require experience amongst bankers to able to devise usage of the data and propagate the same so that it catches up in a bigger way. These would have incidentally boosted the iron & steel industry and a section of consumer goods giving some credence to the ‘Make in India’ campaign. However there is little evidence to suggest that the banks are readying up any action plans on giving boost to data based lending to small enterprises and their employees, as of yet and that would make take-off for the real estate and overall employment, quite slower. The ‘industry (read small enterprises)’ on its part is crying a lack of readiness rather than embracing the new situation, since it does not anticipate any help but just a higher outflow in form of taxes. The government’s campaign with respect to GST is tom-tomming of political noise rather than economic and financial benefits that should be possible and seek backing of the organized banks for further lending/credit support to the small enterprises.
While the exports are looking up in terms of volumes of goods, the services haven’t really shown the promise amid gloomy reports from principal markets. The failure to identify which other key markets are keen to buy ‘what’ services (as well as why??) is an exercise left to the small exporters while the academia as well as departments (in government) keep up the ‘political hype’ rather than engage with the ‘industry’ to support their efforts. This provides the government with additional burden as well as political opportunity to supports programmes like Skill India even as the normal education and skilling flounders. While blaming ‘public’ for the lack of growth and unemployment, the netas in the government set stage for going back to the ‘old captains’ with a credit restructuring package rather than taking actions in favour for some actual restructuring whereby banks are relieved to focus on the more compliant and profitable smaller enterprises so that they can specialize and compete globally rather than locally.
By: Amit Bhushan Date: 27th May 2017
Misplaced political calculations seems to be rising with the passage of time and more indulging netas ably supported by the commercial news media. The government again seems to be in a mood to believe its own rhetoric that everything is ‘delivered’ and in the process almost ready to repeat some of the mistakes. There seems to be an increasing tilt towards issues that have nearly always managed to snatch defeat from the ‘jaws of victory’ while of its ‘patrakar’ friends’ play out ‘Shining India’ messages. It is anyone’s guess that little action so far has been seen on the bank loan defaulters for instance. Much ink is wasted on the drive against Black money but have not convinced anyone since the benefits of so called demonetizations are yet to be experienced. Any such action would have resulted in businesses being far more focused on productivity & profitability. This would have perhaps led to a bigger chorus of streamlining policies as well as government functioning further but the absence of it depicts that the businesses have adjusted to the new normal and it is only marginally different from the old. So the ‘disruptive expectations’ have ebbed and much of it on account of government’s hype built up which yields little. The waning of this wave of ‘support’ that catapulted it to power is being attempted via rising ‘regressive’ agenda. The makeover pundits probably living in fool’s paradise that the media blitz would allow them to carry the ‘masses’ along, but is highly unlikely since econo-pragmatists are unlikely to ‘ignore’ the regressive agenda for sure and far less support the same. This is all the more true when the economy isn’t sputtering ‘Jobs’.
Basically, the turnaround of the hi-employment sectors like construction, Readymade garments haven’t really gone the way as expected. The Housing sector which was expecting a boost following a retreat of the interest rates, hasn’t looked up as desired and a spate of job losses or at least negligible gains in the organized sector have played truant. The gains, if any in the unorganized sector have not yet readied the banks/lenders with enough confidence to lend as signs of digital payments or transaction records are yet to take off and have shown very limited gains so far. Hopefully, the GST and e-payments might help the sector but that would require experience amongst bankers to able to devise usage of the data and propagate the same so that it catches up in a bigger way. These would have incidentally boosted the iron & steel industry and a section of consumer goods giving some credence to the ‘Make in India’ campaign. However there is little evidence to suggest that the banks are readying up any action plans on giving boost to data based lending to small enterprises and their employees, as of yet and that would make take-off for the real estate and overall employment, quite slower. The ‘industry (read small enterprises)’ on its part is crying a lack of readiness rather than embracing the new situation, since it does not anticipate any help but just a higher outflow in form of taxes. The government’s campaign with respect to GST is tom-tomming of political noise rather than economic and financial benefits that should be possible and seek backing of the organized banks for further lending/credit support to the small enterprises.
While the exports are looking up in terms of volumes of goods, the services haven’t really shown the promise amid gloomy reports from principal markets. The failure to identify which other key markets are keen to buy ‘what’ services (as well as why??) is an exercise left to the small exporters while the academia as well as departments (in government) keep up the ‘political hype’ rather than engage with the ‘industry’ to support their efforts. This provides the government with additional burden as well as political opportunity to supports programmes like Skill India even as the normal education and skilling flounders. While blaming ‘public’ for the lack of growth and unemployment, the netas in the government set stage for going back to the ‘old captains’ with a credit restructuring package rather than taking actions in favour for some actual restructuring whereby banks are relieved to focus on the more compliant and profitable smaller enterprises so that they can specialize and compete globally rather than locally.