A growth rate of 9.4 per cent in 2006-07 is great news, but the challenge lies in keeping it going. There is always a risk of its coming unstuck if agriculture continues to remain a laggard - it grew by just 2.7 per cent in the previous fiscal. Some economists argue that since agriculture contributes just 18.5 per cent of India's gross domestic product, its slow growth will not act as a drag on the entire economy. They are mistaken.
Rural India still accounts for 60 per cent of the country's population, and can vote governments out of power if it perceives that growth is not helping people at large. That could upset policy momentum and business sentiment. Besides, the participation of a large number of people in the market would stabilise industrial demand over time, creating the right climate for investment. While there has been no dearth of suggestions on how to lift agriculture by the bootstraps, there is one problem that deserves overriding priority - Rs 58,000 crore of fruit, vegetables, pulses and grains, or a third of total food produce, is wasted each year for want of storage and marketing facilities. Of the produce that survives, very little is processed, compared to the situation in Malaysia, the Philippines, Brazil and Thailand. It is here that the entry of organised retail can make a huge difference.
It would lead to the creation of large, efficient cold storages, which, in turn, could transform the character of the food processing industry by enabling it to deal in large volumes. At present, food processing is dominated by the small-scale sector, which is not equipped to deal either in volumes or variety of produce. In the absence of storage systems, these units do not operate round the year; yet, it is remarkable that this sector employs about 1.5 million people.
It is often overlooked that the Indian agriculture sector is almost totally private. However, it belongs to the realm of the unorganised sector and as such lacks both capital and organisational skills to maximise returns. What is needed is to create a mutually beneficial synthesis between organised private capital as represented by, say, ITC or Wal-Mart and the amorphous agrarian sector.
The government should play its legitimate role as an honest broker to help both parties work out an advantageous deal for all concerned. This could be done by ensuring that there are no job losses, that food prices are both remunerative and stable, and the small agriculturist is saved from suicidal debt