Rural & urban consumer behaviour

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According to a study by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), Indian incomes are likely to grow three-fold over the next two decades and India will become the world's fifth-largest consumer market by 2025. In the given scenario, urban markets will continue to fuel the Indian economy for quite some time to come.

Moreover, expenditure by the middle class accounts for the bulk of India’s urban consumer expenditure. About 61 per cent of total urban income comes from households that can be classified as middle class—earning between US$ 1,493 and US$ 9,955 a year.

Further, India is likely to see rapid urbanisation, with around 45 per cent of Indians living in urban areas by 2050, up from 30 per cent in 2007-08, according to a study co-authored by National Council of Applied Economic Research's (NCAER) Rajesh Shukla and Future Capital Research's Roopa Purushothaman.

Retail

According to a report by McKinsey, India's overall retail sector is likely to grow to US$ 419.93 billion by 2015.

According to global real estate consultant, CB Richard Ellis, India has moved up to the 39th most preferred retail destination in the world in 2009, up from 44 last year.

Retail opportunity is slated to rise by about US$ 160 billion in India in five years. In urban India, modern retail is likely to grow from the current 9.6 per cent of total retail to 26 per cent in the next five years, as per Technopak Advisors.

According to a latest study by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham), the Indian retail market is expected to grow 5.5 per cent to become US$ 410 billion market by April 2010, registering growths of more than 22 per cent and 30 per cent in the third and fourth quarters this fiscal.

Also, organised retail, which currently accounts for nearly five per cent of the retail market, is pegged at around US$ 9.23 billion and was expected to grow at 2.3 per cent to touch US$ 13 billion by the end of 2009-10.

Consumer Durables

The Indian consumer durables market seems to be relatively untouched by the economic slowdown. The consumer durable goods output witnessed a 2.5 per cent rise in durables output in the first quarter of 2009, according to a report by the Development Bank of Singapore (DBS).

A healthy rise in demand have spurred consumer durables firms such as LG, Samsung, Whirlpool and Godrej & Boyce to line up investments amounting to about US$ 204.6 million over the next few months for product launches, research and development (R&D) and for upgrading capacity at their existing manufacturing plants.

LG Electronics India Ltd (LGEIL) is aiming at a 25 per cent growth in turnover for 2009 to touch about US$ 2.68 billion.

Samsung too is in expansion mode. Samsung India is targeting a turnover of US$ 2 billion this calendar year.

Automobiles

Improved consumer spending sentiment, revival of bank lending with relatively low interest rates and new models have resulted in automobile companies registering positive car sales during the first four months of 2009.

Indian consumers, mostly in metropolitan cities, are shifting to the premium compact segment from the entry mid-sized sedan segment. The market also saw the launch of new cars including Maruti’s Ritz, Mahindra & Mahindra’s Xylo and Skoda India’s New Laura.

Further, the premium compact car segment will be abuzz over the next year with launches expected from almost all other car makers — Hyundai Motors, Honda Siel Cars, Toyota Kirloskar, Fiat Auto, Volkswagen India and Ford India.

FMCGs

Despite the economic slowdown, India’s fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector has grown consistently during the past three to four years, reaching a size of US$ 25 billion at retail sales in 2008. The industry is poised to grow 10-12 per cent yearly for the next 10 years to reach US$ 43 billion by 2013 and US$ 74 billion by 2018, according to a new FICCI-Technopak report.

Companies like Dabur, Glaxo SmithKline Consumer Healthcare, Britannia Industries and Cadbury are reviving high-priced products and packets and launching new promotional offers for modern trade like retail chains that cater mostly to the urban market after almost a year.

“Urban growth is staging a definite revival, helped by the overall positive economic sentiment and modern trade beginning to stabilise,” said Sunil Duggal, CEO of Dabur India. “We feel the next cycle of growth will come from urban markets.”

Luxury Products

According to a FICCI-Yes Bank report, the luxury products market in India is estimated in excess of US$ 500 million and is likely to grow at a CAGR of 28 per cent to reach US$ 1.2 billion by 2010. The market is expected to double by 2015, touching US$ 2.5 billion.

While many brands like Armani, Dolce & Gabbana, Louis Vuitton, Salvatore Ferragamo, luggage brand Piquadro, Marks & Spencer, La Perla, Jimmy Choo and Toy Watch have already forayed into India, some brands are waiting for the government to allow 100 per cent foreign direct investment in retail.

DKNY is looking at setting up exclusive retail stores in the country. Louis Vuitton also plans to open stores in Kolkata, Chennai and Hyderabad in the next 3-5 years.

Direct Selling

The direct selling market in India will benefit from the global recession with the segment posting 20 per cent growth annually to reach an expected US$ 1 billion by 2012.

Leading direct selling companies like Amway India and Oriflame Cosmetics are planning to cover more areas in the country.

E-commerce

The increase in the personal computer and Internet penetration along with the growing preference of Indian consumers to shop online has given a tremendous boost to e-tailing–the online version of retail shopping. Several online retailers are reporting good business in categories like travel, art, books and music. E-tailing in lingerie and fresh fruit businesses is also doing well.
 
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