Description
An attractor is a set towards which a variable, moving according to the dictates of a dynamical system, evolves over time. That is, points that get close enough to the attractor remain close even if slightly disturbed.
Research Report on Attractors, Strange Attractors and Organizational Decision Making
Michele Vincenti, MA, MBA, C.Mgr. Organizations exist as structures that are continually challenged with external stimuli that test the boundaries of established strategy, culture, policy and procedure. These functioning organizational structures can be oriented towards attractor or strange attractor states that either absorb and dampen external stimuli and return to equilibrium, or embed these stimuli and achieve another level of development, yet stay within a recognized path trajectory, respectively. Strange attractors are unique from other phase-space attractors in that one does not know exactly where on the attractor the system will be. Within the science and theory of chaos, we have the concept of feedback. Feedback is the process by which system outputs return as inputs; this information is then used to adjust the process, similar to proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers used in engineering systems. Within an organizational setting, external feedback is given only for two reasons: to acknowledge conforming performance or to provide stimuli that may adjust organizational processes according to some requirement. By receiving feedback from an external source, organizations can compensate accordingly and maintain a state that is stable and familiar, yet adjusted somewhat, to the feedback. The transition from attractor to strange attractor is the difference between settling into a constant, predictable equilibrium, and continually seeking another trajectory that constantly seeks to find this stability (equilibrium). Using a metaphor we can say that at the edge of chaos we find a new temporary equilibrium for the system. With increased complexity and the decay of clear causal relationships, even the most rigid organizational plans can succumb to the inability to maintain an attractor state, falling into a stable, yet effectively long-term unpredictable strange attractor state that may (predictably) spiral out of control. The concept that a small change creates complex behaviour is more visual if we use the famous butterfly concept illustrated by Edward Lorenz. Lorentz had shown that the future state of the system was very sensitive to the initial conditions used for the calculation, Dr. Matthew Jelavic, C.Mgr. and even a deterministic system could be inherently unpredictable over the long-term. With reference to Lorentz's strange attractor, the famous statement on chaos says that the flapping of a butterfly's wings in Tokyo can cause a tornado in Texas. A mathematical rounding error can lead to wide variations in the final product over successive computations. The importance of how a small error can create a very significant change is part of the study on the fractals. In his paper, the mathematician Benoît Mandelbrot explains fractals, using the famous question "how long is the coast of Britain?" His answer was "it depends". It depends on the measurement unit we use. The paper examines the coastline paradox: the property that the measured length of a stretch of coastline depends on the scale of measurement. In fact, we can empirically understand that the smaller the increment of measurement, the longer the measured length becomes. These concepts hold equally true for subtle changes made within an organization, at various levels, leading to multiple bifurcation points and the consequences of those changes having an unpredictable result. Although these systems are fundamentally deterministic, they are not easily predictable, and this concept of chaos has important implications for management application. Lorenz's model is essentially saying that because of the interaction of multiple systems on each other, the non- linearity results in unpredictability in the long term. However, the unpredictability doesn't mean that the system is producing random events. What chaos theory is saying is that there is order in the universe, visible through the strange attractors' shapes, but we cannot understand yet the reasons why shapes show geometric regularity. The reason why the system is unpredictable in the long term is that we never know all of the interactions occurring. This principle applies to all systems regardless how small they are and, of course, business organizations are no exception. However, an important distinction has to be made between the terms 'chaos' and 'randomness'. A randomness example has an erratic behaviour and no path can be determined. A chaotic behaviour, if analyzed in more detail, can reveal
Summer 2012
28
CANADIANINSTITUTEOFMANAGEMENT/INSTITUTCANADIENDEGESTION
RESEARCH
to set forth operational and strategic initiatives that reflect the inherently chaotic nature of management. Look for feedback from sources not directly close to what you think the problem is. Use the nonlinear approach that creates the strange attractors. Use feedback constantly, and more frequently. Make the feedback process a regular part of your everyday business. Ask for it and provide feedback as many times as possible. The system is larger than what it seems and its continuous change will create resiliency. The organization will become ready for change because we make it a constant inherent aspect of the system. Nietzsche once said "what doesn't kill us makes us stronger" , and, after all, in nature dynamic stability is maintained through struggle for survival. By viewing the entire organization at once and connecting all aspects of the organization through network analysis, the manager is in a better position to see the intricate relationships that can shape the trajectory of the organization.
Michele Vincenti is a Certified Management Consultant (CMC) and the founder of Alvana Business Consulting Inc. in Vancouver, BC. He has more than 25 years of experience in consulting in the areas of Change Management, Strategy and Wealth Management. He consults internationally and he is near completion of his PhD in Human Organizational Systems. He teaches at international universities and he holds an MBA from Royal Roads University and an MA in Human Organizational Systems from Fielding Graduate University. [email protected] Phone: +1 (778) 968-6084 Dr. Matthew Jelavic is a Professor within the School of Science and Engineering Technology at Durham College and Adjunct Assistant Professor within the Faculty of Business and IT at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology. He holds a Doctorate in Business Administration from the Grenoble École de Management and a Master's Degree in Management Sciences from the University of Waterloo. Dr. Jelavic possesses over 16 years of experience in the field of engineering and management within private industry, academia and consulting practice.
order and lead to short-term predictability. Complex systems often have no discernable pattern that can be observed by casually analyzing them. Within complex organizations, decision-making at all levels sets forth a cascade of events that influences other events and diverge at multiple bifurcation points which test existing strategies, culture, policies and procedures. These existing strategies, culture, policies and procedures can maintain the functioning of an organization within an attractor state or, depending on the level of change, can take an institution (for good or bad) into a strange attractor state of situation-to-situation compensation without ever finding final equilibrium; just a cascade of ongoing stable variations. Change must be planned in order to bring a system at the edge of chaos (the next bifurcation), and not left to randomness. The system must be viewed as a whole when changes are applied; understanding that a change, even if small, can influence the whole system, positively or negatively. Looking for clues far away from the symptoms of any organization, you will be amazed on what you can find to correct or direct your organization in the path you choose. Using an example, a simple shift of the water cooler to a more central location within the administrative offices of your organization could influence productivity to be measurable on its financial statements. It will take a very keen eye to recognize that the location of the water cooler or the transfer of a certain administrative assistant or junior engineer to another department was the flapping wings of the butterfly. Management through holistic analysis and multifaceted, multi-criteria data acquisition and forecasting (not just relying on financial results or budgets) will allow the organization
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If you have changed jobs, moved your home, switched your internet provider or gotten a new cell phone number, please let us know so that you can stay current with all CIM publications. Just drop us a line at [email protected] so we can update your record, or visit our website at www.cim.ca to do so electronically.
AV E Z - VO U S PA RT I C I P E A U N R E M U E - M E NAG E ?
Si vous avez changé d'emploi, d'adresse de couriel ou de cellulaire, ou encore si vous avez déménagé, veuillez nous en avertir afin d'assurer qu'il n'y aura pas d'interruption dans vos communications avec l'ICG. Il suffit de nous envoyer un message au [email protected] ou de visiter notre site Web au www.cim.ca afin de mettre votre dossier à date.
Summer 2012
doc_439706172.docx
An attractor is a set towards which a variable, moving according to the dictates of a dynamical system, evolves over time. That is, points that get close enough to the attractor remain close even if slightly disturbed.
Research Report on Attractors, Strange Attractors and Organizational Decision Making
Michele Vincenti, MA, MBA, C.Mgr. Organizations exist as structures that are continually challenged with external stimuli that test the boundaries of established strategy, culture, policy and procedure. These functioning organizational structures can be oriented towards attractor or strange attractor states that either absorb and dampen external stimuli and return to equilibrium, or embed these stimuli and achieve another level of development, yet stay within a recognized path trajectory, respectively. Strange attractors are unique from other phase-space attractors in that one does not know exactly where on the attractor the system will be. Within the science and theory of chaos, we have the concept of feedback. Feedback is the process by which system outputs return as inputs; this information is then used to adjust the process, similar to proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers used in engineering systems. Within an organizational setting, external feedback is given only for two reasons: to acknowledge conforming performance or to provide stimuli that may adjust organizational processes according to some requirement. By receiving feedback from an external source, organizations can compensate accordingly and maintain a state that is stable and familiar, yet adjusted somewhat, to the feedback. The transition from attractor to strange attractor is the difference between settling into a constant, predictable equilibrium, and continually seeking another trajectory that constantly seeks to find this stability (equilibrium). Using a metaphor we can say that at the edge of chaos we find a new temporary equilibrium for the system. With increased complexity and the decay of clear causal relationships, even the most rigid organizational plans can succumb to the inability to maintain an attractor state, falling into a stable, yet effectively long-term unpredictable strange attractor state that may (predictably) spiral out of control. The concept that a small change creates complex behaviour is more visual if we use the famous butterfly concept illustrated by Edward Lorenz. Lorentz had shown that the future state of the system was very sensitive to the initial conditions used for the calculation, Dr. Matthew Jelavic, C.Mgr. and even a deterministic system could be inherently unpredictable over the long-term. With reference to Lorentz's strange attractor, the famous statement on chaos says that the flapping of a butterfly's wings in Tokyo can cause a tornado in Texas. A mathematical rounding error can lead to wide variations in the final product over successive computations. The importance of how a small error can create a very significant change is part of the study on the fractals. In his paper, the mathematician Benoît Mandelbrot explains fractals, using the famous question "how long is the coast of Britain?" His answer was "it depends". It depends on the measurement unit we use. The paper examines the coastline paradox: the property that the measured length of a stretch of coastline depends on the scale of measurement. In fact, we can empirically understand that the smaller the increment of measurement, the longer the measured length becomes. These concepts hold equally true for subtle changes made within an organization, at various levels, leading to multiple bifurcation points and the consequences of those changes having an unpredictable result. Although these systems are fundamentally deterministic, they are not easily predictable, and this concept of chaos has important implications for management application. Lorenz's model is essentially saying that because of the interaction of multiple systems on each other, the non- linearity results in unpredictability in the long term. However, the unpredictability doesn't mean that the system is producing random events. What chaos theory is saying is that there is order in the universe, visible through the strange attractors' shapes, but we cannot understand yet the reasons why shapes show geometric regularity. The reason why the system is unpredictable in the long term is that we never know all of the interactions occurring. This principle applies to all systems regardless how small they are and, of course, business organizations are no exception. However, an important distinction has to be made between the terms 'chaos' and 'randomness'. A randomness example has an erratic behaviour and no path can be determined. A chaotic behaviour, if analyzed in more detail, can reveal
Summer 2012
28
CANADIANINSTITUTEOFMANAGEMENT/INSTITUTCANADIENDEGESTION
RESEARCH
to set forth operational and strategic initiatives that reflect the inherently chaotic nature of management. Look for feedback from sources not directly close to what you think the problem is. Use the nonlinear approach that creates the strange attractors. Use feedback constantly, and more frequently. Make the feedback process a regular part of your everyday business. Ask for it and provide feedback as many times as possible. The system is larger than what it seems and its continuous change will create resiliency. The organization will become ready for change because we make it a constant inherent aspect of the system. Nietzsche once said "what doesn't kill us makes us stronger" , and, after all, in nature dynamic stability is maintained through struggle for survival. By viewing the entire organization at once and connecting all aspects of the organization through network analysis, the manager is in a better position to see the intricate relationships that can shape the trajectory of the organization.
Michele Vincenti is a Certified Management Consultant (CMC) and the founder of Alvana Business Consulting Inc. in Vancouver, BC. He has more than 25 years of experience in consulting in the areas of Change Management, Strategy and Wealth Management. He consults internationally and he is near completion of his PhD in Human Organizational Systems. He teaches at international universities and he holds an MBA from Royal Roads University and an MA in Human Organizational Systems from Fielding Graduate University. [email protected] Phone: +1 (778) 968-6084 Dr. Matthew Jelavic is a Professor within the School of Science and Engineering Technology at Durham College and Adjunct Assistant Professor within the Faculty of Business and IT at the University of Ontario Institute of Technology. He holds a Doctorate in Business Administration from the Grenoble École de Management and a Master's Degree in Management Sciences from the University of Waterloo. Dr. Jelavic possesses over 16 years of experience in the field of engineering and management within private industry, academia and consulting practice.
order and lead to short-term predictability. Complex systems often have no discernable pattern that can be observed by casually analyzing them. Within complex organizations, decision-making at all levels sets forth a cascade of events that influences other events and diverge at multiple bifurcation points which test existing strategies, culture, policies and procedures. These existing strategies, culture, policies and procedures can maintain the functioning of an organization within an attractor state or, depending on the level of change, can take an institution (for good or bad) into a strange attractor state of situation-to-situation compensation without ever finding final equilibrium; just a cascade of ongoing stable variations. Change must be planned in order to bring a system at the edge of chaos (the next bifurcation), and not left to randomness. The system must be viewed as a whole when changes are applied; understanding that a change, even if small, can influence the whole system, positively or negatively. Looking for clues far away from the symptoms of any organization, you will be amazed on what you can find to correct or direct your organization in the path you choose. Using an example, a simple shift of the water cooler to a more central location within the administrative offices of your organization could influence productivity to be measurable on its financial statements. It will take a very keen eye to recognize that the location of the water cooler or the transfer of a certain administrative assistant or junior engineer to another department was the flapping wings of the butterfly. Management through holistic analysis and multifaceted, multi-criteria data acquisition and forecasting (not just relying on financial results or budgets) will allow the organization
H AV E YO U H A D A M OV I N G E X P E R I E N C E ?
If you have changed jobs, moved your home, switched your internet provider or gotten a new cell phone number, please let us know so that you can stay current with all CIM publications. Just drop us a line at [email protected] so we can update your record, or visit our website at www.cim.ca to do so electronically.
AV E Z - VO U S PA RT I C I P E A U N R E M U E - M E NAG E ?
Si vous avez changé d'emploi, d'adresse de couriel ou de cellulaire, ou encore si vous avez déménagé, veuillez nous en avertir afin d'assurer qu'il n'y aura pas d'interruption dans vos communications avec l'ICG. Il suffit de nous envoyer un message au [email protected] ou de visiter notre site Web au www.cim.ca afin de mettre votre dossier à date.
Summer 2012
doc_439706172.docx