It is estimated that the vehicle population would grow to about 1.3 billion in the year 2030.
India is among few countries that are showing a growth rate of 30% in demand for passenger cars.
Cars priced below Rs. 500,000 account for nearly 80% of the market.
Vehicles priced between Rs.300,000 –500,000 form the largest segment in the passenger car market.
Auto experts say the used car business is becoming very attractive because dealer margins on used cars are higher than on new cars.
India has become the fastest growing automobile market in the world by creating an environment of minimum regulations in several sectors including the automobile sector.
Foreign direct investment up to 100 % has been granted for the manufacture of automobiles and components.
Easy availability of credit at low cost of interest, good industrial activity and improved road network has given a positive impact to the automobile sector.
Despite the highs and lows of 2005, the New Year promises to be a rush hour for the industry with global hot wheels on a passage to India. India is expected to see 30 new cars on its roads in 2006.
The contribution of the automotive industry to GDP has risen from 2.77% in 1992-93 to 4% in 2003-04.
The demand for personal mobility in India is expected to remain strong. However Growth rates are expected to slow down.
Investment in Infrastructure upto Rs. 9000 crore in current budget.
Maruti Udyog Ltd.
Hyundai Motor India Ltd.
Tata Motors.
Indian Passenger Vehicle Market – Competitive Scenario
Passenger Car Penetration is low in India
Techniques used in forecasting market potential
Extrapolation Techniques:
Persistence Model : 80 pieces in Feb, 100 pieces in March, ---pieces in April.
Time Series decomposition :
O=T*C*S*I
Where O= Original data, C=Cyclical component
S=Seasonal , I= Irregular component, T=Trend.
Example:
Cars sold= Jan-Dec2003=12000
Estimation for year 2004
T=5% Growth :- 12000*(1.05)=12600
C=Business Recession expected (conservative estimates, 10% drop)=90%*12600=11340
If sales are same every month, then average per month=945.
Add seasonal (S) component for festivals like Diwali, Durga Pooja, Pongal
S= Seasonal Index:- 1.2 , Oct, Dec= 945*1.2=1134
Total O= 1134*2+945*10=11718.
Polling Techniques: Delphi Technique.
Historical Analogy : Sales experience of an earlier similar product is sometimes used as basis for forecasting sales of a new product. e.g. B/W:- CTV
Econometric .
Experimental : Test Marketing :new products.
Increasing disposable incomes.
Rising aspirational levels.
Low interest rates.
Wide variety and easy availability of Financing options.
High sensitivity to Fuel prices.
Flourishing Service Sector.
Lack of urban & rural public transportation infrastructure.
Reduction in Excise duty.
24% 16%
Steel prices.
Innovation in technology.
Market evolution from Mini cars to Hatchbacks to Compact Sedans now evident
Increasing customer emphasis on aesthetics and comfort.
Shrinking product life-cycles
Types of Hybrid cars
India is among few countries that are showing a growth rate of 30% in demand for passenger cars.
Cars priced below Rs. 500,000 account for nearly 80% of the market.
Vehicles priced between Rs.300,000 –500,000 form the largest segment in the passenger car market.
Auto experts say the used car business is becoming very attractive because dealer margins on used cars are higher than on new cars.
India has become the fastest growing automobile market in the world by creating an environment of minimum regulations in several sectors including the automobile sector.
Foreign direct investment up to 100 % has been granted for the manufacture of automobiles and components.
Easy availability of credit at low cost of interest, good industrial activity and improved road network has given a positive impact to the automobile sector.
Despite the highs and lows of 2005, the New Year promises to be a rush hour for the industry with global hot wheels on a passage to India. India is expected to see 30 new cars on its roads in 2006.
The contribution of the automotive industry to GDP has risen from 2.77% in 1992-93 to 4% in 2003-04.
The demand for personal mobility in India is expected to remain strong. However Growth rates are expected to slow down.
Investment in Infrastructure upto Rs. 9000 crore in current budget.
Maruti Udyog Ltd.
Hyundai Motor India Ltd.
Tata Motors.
Indian Passenger Vehicle Market – Competitive Scenario
Passenger Car Penetration is low in India
Techniques used in forecasting market potential
Extrapolation Techniques:
Persistence Model : 80 pieces in Feb, 100 pieces in March, ---pieces in April.
Time Series decomposition :
O=T*C*S*I
Where O= Original data, C=Cyclical component
S=Seasonal , I= Irregular component, T=Trend.
Example:
Cars sold= Jan-Dec2003=12000
Estimation for year 2004
T=5% Growth :- 12000*(1.05)=12600
C=Business Recession expected (conservative estimates, 10% drop)=90%*12600=11340
If sales are same every month, then average per month=945.
Add seasonal (S) component for festivals like Diwali, Durga Pooja, Pongal
S= Seasonal Index:- 1.2 , Oct, Dec= 945*1.2=1134
Total O= 1134*2+945*10=11718.
Polling Techniques: Delphi Technique.
Historical Analogy : Sales experience of an earlier similar product is sometimes used as basis for forecasting sales of a new product. e.g. B/W:- CTV
Econometric .
Experimental : Test Marketing :new products.
Increasing disposable incomes.
Rising aspirational levels.
Low interest rates.
Wide variety and easy availability of Financing options.
High sensitivity to Fuel prices.
Flourishing Service Sector.
Lack of urban & rural public transportation infrastructure.
Reduction in Excise duty.
24% 16%
Steel prices.
Innovation in technology.
Market evolution from Mini cars to Hatchbacks to Compact Sedans now evident
Increasing customer emphasis on aesthetics and comfort.
Shrinking product life-cycles
Types of Hybrid cars