Reports on Islam and the Olympics: Seeking a Host City in the Muslim World

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Reports on Islam and the Olympics: Seeking a Host City in the Muslim World
Abstract
Purpose - Awarding the Olympic Games to a host city in the Muslim world would send a clear indication from member nations of the International Olympic Committee of a desire by the international community to engage with Muslim nations on a level that transcends sport. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to answer the question: will a city in the Muslim world ever become host to the greatest sporting spectacle on Earth, and, if so, which is most likely to receive it, when and why? Design/methodology/approach - To gauge the potential of cities in the Muslim world hosting the Olympics Games, the approach of the paper is to examine the merits of former host cities and then qualitatively comparing these with member countries of the Organisation of Islamic Conference which have a majority Muslim population. Findings - The research findings indicate that there are five cities in the Muslim world, at least one of which is likely to be awarded one of the coming six Summer Olympic Games between the years 2020 and 2040. Research limitations/implications - The broader implications of the study are that, in examining Muslim nations of the world from the point of view of mega-event management on a global scale, their development and advancement capability in the modern world can be probed. Originality/value - In the absence of any other published study on the subject, this paper would open a discourse that would be of value to scholars and interested parties in diverse fields such as major programme management, Islamic studies, international politics, economics and international development. Keywords Islam, Muslim, Olympic Games, Mega events, International Olympic Committee, Organization of Islamic Conference, Sporting events, Political science Paper type Research paper

1. Introduction Understanding the Islamic world has been regarded from a Western perspective as necessary for varying reasons throughout the last millennium up to the present day. Conquest, governance, exploitation and most recently engagement have been primary motivators (Ramadan, 2007). In modern times, sport, and in particular the Olympic Games, has been one mechanism for promoting engagement (Carroll and Hollinshead, 1993) with politically and ideologically hostile nations from a Western perspective, with communist and fascist regimes being prominent examples. Recently, in a post-9/11 world, with an emphasis by the west on promoting moderation within Muslim societies across the globe (Akhavi, 2003; Esposito, 2005; Rehman, 2005),

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it is important that the world soon witnesses an Olympic Games hosted by a city in the Muslim world. For the host city too, there are potential and lasting social and economic gains to hosting the games, including global marketing opportunities, infrastructure development, travel and tourism, urban regeneration programmes and city re-branding (Berg, 2008; Gold and Gold, 2008). This paper thus examines the possibility of a Muslim host city for the Olympics for two reasons. First, examining the potential of hosting a global mega-event provides insights on developmental characteristics of a city and nation. An examination into political, historic, cultural, economic and other issues is useful in gauging the progress of the Muslim world in comparison to other developed nations. Second, the awarding of an Olympic Games to a city in the Muslim world sends a clear indication of a desire to engage with it and, in the absence of any published study on the subject, this paper would open a discourse that would be of value to scholars and interested parties in diverse fields such as Islam, international politics, sport, economics, international development and beyond. 2. Historical purpose of the Olympics In modern times, the Olympic Games, as with other mega-events to lesser degrees, such as the FIFA World Cup football tournament, appear to have been defined by city marketing, the demand for a sustainable legacy, nationalism and political issues, rather than sport. As Berg (2008, p. 15) points out, "sport may be the style of the Olympics, but nationalism and geopolitics are (its) content". It is unclear at what historical point sport did become a sideline issue for the Olympics. Legend has it that the ancient games began with five brother-gods in Olympia who were merely seeking recreation. The eldest brother duly contrived running races with the winner awarded a crown of leaves (Papantoniou, 2008, p. 33), thus introducing the element of competition, often found between brothers of lesser deity. This spirit of recreation and sporting competition, should be, but is certainly not the raison d'etre of the Olympics today. ˆ The founder of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and instigator of the modern Olympic Games, beginning with the 1896 games, Pierre de Coubertin, clearly articulated the doctrinal vision of universality as the cornerstone of the Olympic movement. Though, on the surface a noble sentiment, in practice, universalism meant that the absence of any form of discrimination and the assumption of universal ethical and moral equivalency, resulted in dictatorial communist and fascist regimes being awarded the games, to whom the success of their bids translated to being a green light to propagate their political agendas on a world stage (Berg, 2008, p. 16). These include, most infamously, Nazi Germany (host city Berlin in, 1936), as well as more recently the Soviet Union (Moscow, 1980) and China (Beijing, 2008). It can be argued that although these nations are representative of objectionable values at the time of hosting the games, their future was altogether different. Germany and Russia are now democratic nations with elected representation of their people. Though a direct link between hosting mega-events and political change is tenuous and cannot be substantiated, the global exposure hosting the Olympics provides can be a contributing factor to the shifting sands of political movement in the longer term (Westerbeek, 2009). Thus, an argument for moderation and liberality within Muslim nations would likely be a covert underlying message to the Muslim world in selecting a host city within it.

For democratic nations, Olympic critics focus on political agendas of governments and individuals, with the games being used as a tool to give prominence to their hallmark cities on a world stage. Though long-term economic benefits are questionable, shortterm attention-seeking strategies appear to be the main goal (Matheson, 2002). Examples of host cities proclaiming a strategy of long-term economic benefit include the Rome (host of the 1960 games), Munich (1972), Los Angeles (1984) and Barcelona (1992), all of which delivered notably successful infrastructure and urban regeneration programmes (Pitsis et al., 2003); the Sydney games (2000), which emphasised drawing increased future revenue from tourism (Berg, 2008, p. 17; Eager, 1997); and London (2012) which has its accent on urban regeneration and city re-branding (Gold and Gold, 2008, p. 300). Another feature of the Olympics very pertinent to the Islamic world is that of terrorism and security. The grandiose scale of the Olympic Games in recent years has increasingly attracted two main challenges to its security. The first is as a consequence of public demonstration and the second resulting from the threat of terrorism. The Tlatelolco Massacre, which occurred during a student protest for greater human rights prior to the Mexico City Olympics of 1968, resulted in approximately 300 people being killed (Berg, 2008, p. 17). Demonstrations in the run up to the Beijing Olympics of 2008 included human rights and pro-Tibetan independence protests which marred the Torch Lighting Ceremony in Athens as well as numerous legs of the torch relay around the globe. There were also counter demonstrations from pro-Chinese activists, in addition to demonstrations by the Chinese Muslim Uyghur population in Xinjiang province for greater autonomy and greater religious freedom. Munich saw the first instance of international terrorism at the Olympic Games in the form of hostage taking (Gold and Gold, 2008, p. 305). A pro-Palestinian group took 11 Israeli athletes and officials hostage inside the Olympic Village during the games. In a bungled attempt at rescue by poorly trained West German police, all 11 hostages were killed along with five of the eight hostage takers and one police officer. This incident re?ected very badly on Olympic organisers as they were seen to be negligent in preparations for such an eventuality. In the case of the Munich massacre, inaccurate initial reports of all terrorists being killed and all hostages surviving the ordeal only served to exacerbate the harm to the reputation of the organisers. 3. The Olympics and Muslim nations The mythology surrounding the ancient Olympiad raises controversy and debate amongst Muslims as to its acceptability and relevance from the perspective of Islamic tradition. This is due to the pagan and polytheistic foundation of the tradition which envelops the history of the games coming into con?ict with the monotheistic tradition of Islam, which is seen by Muslims as being sacrosanct. Much of the Olympic tradition preserved as part of the ceremony during the Olympics is a re?ection of this con?icting tradition which many Muslims find contravene their own beliefs to the extent of negating participation. However, this sentiment is largely articulated on an individualistic level, but there is growing interest amongst the nations of the Muslim world vis-a-vis partaking in global sporting events, both as event participants ` represented through an Olympic team and establishing a National Olympic Committee, as well as aspiring to put forward potential host cities. The general view of the Olympics is therefore participatory and positive, with Muslim nations having a long history

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of involvement and, more recently, entering bidding contests to host future games. The Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) themselves, also recognising the importance of sport to development, whilst attempting to balance Islamic conservatism preventing female participants from entering other global events or public sporting activities, began a multinational, multi-sport event of its own in Saudi Arabia in 2005, called the Islamic Solidarity Games. The event was envisaged to run every four years, though Iran is due to be the next host in 2010, following a five-year gap. Additionally, Iran continues to host the Women's Islamic Games, with four games having been held since 1993. The popularity of these games has steadily increased, from only ten participating OIC member nations in 1993, to 44 nations in the latest games held in 2005. 4. Methodology The methodological framework of the research is exploratory and followed a processbased method for shortlisting candidate Muslim cities as shown in Figure 1. 5. Results and analysis 5.1 Organization of Islamic Conference There are 56 Member States of the OIC, which has its headquarters in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Member countries have Muslim populations of a minimum 10 per cent. Table I lists only those countries which have majority Muslim populations

Member nations of OIC

Olympic host city data from 1960 to 2016

Shortlist of OIC nations on lessons from previous games

Analysis of OIC nation shortlist against selected criteria

Figure 1. Process ?ow diagram for method of potential host city selection in the Muslim world

Selected Muslim host cities for 2020 to 2040 Olympic bids

Country Saudi Arabia Maldives Mauritania Somalia Turkey Algeria Afghanistan Morocco Yemen Iran Tunisia Comoros Pakistan Iraq Tajikistan Libya Jordan Senegal Djibouti Azerbaijan Oman Egypt Syria Niger Mali The Gambia Bangladesh Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Indonesia Guinea Kuwait Bahrain Albania Qatar United Arab Emirates Kyrgyzstan Sudan Brunei Malaysia Sierra Leone Lebanon Kazakhstan Chad Nigeria Burkina Faso

Total population 27,601,038 350,000 3,124,000 9,558,666 71,517,100 33,769,669 32,738,376 33,723,418 23,013,376 70,495,782 10,383,577 798,000 172,800,000 28,221,181 7,215,700 6,173,579 5,568,565 11,658,000 496,374 8,676,000 2,577,000 77,100,000 19,405,000 13,272,679 11,995,402 1,700,000 162,221,000 5,110,023 27,372,000 228,582,000 10,211,437 3,399,637 1,046,814 3,170,048 744,029 5,432,746 5,356,869 39,379,358 381,371 27,730,000 6,294,774 4,196,453 15,217,711 5,041,690 154,279,000 13,228,000

Muslim (%) 100 100 99.99 99.9 99.8 99 99 99 99 98 98 98 97 97 97 97 95 94 94 93.4 93 90 90 90 90 90 89 89 88 86.1 85 85 81 79.9 77.5 76 75 70 67 60.4 60 60 57 54 50 50

Religion and state Islamic state State religion Islamic state State religion Secular State religion Islamic state State religion Islamic state Islamic state State religion State religion Islamic state State religion Secular State religion state religion Secular Secular Secular State religion State religion None Secular Secular Secular State Religion Secular Secular None Secular State religion State religion None State religion State religion Secular None State religion State religion None None Secular Secular None Secular

Type of government Absolute monarchy Presidential republic Military junta Coalition government Parliamentary democracy Presidential republic Presidential republic Constitutional monarchy Presidential republic Presidential republic Presidential republic Federal republic Semi-presidential republic Parliamentary democracy Presidential republic Jamahiriya Revolution Constitutional monarchy Semi-presidential republic Semi-presidential republic Presidential republic Absolute monarchy Semi-presidential republic Authoritarian republic Parliamentary democracy Semi-presidential republic Presidential republic Parliamentary democracy Parliamentary republic Presidential republic Presidential republic Military junta Constitutional monarchy Constitutional monarchy Parliamentary republic Absolute monarchy Federal constitutional monarchy Semi-presidential republic Authoritarian republic Absolute monarchy Parliamentary democracy and elective monarchy Presidential republic Parliamentary democracy Presidential republic Presidential republic Presidential federal republic Semi-presidential republic

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Table I. List of majority Muslim countries (ranked by Muslim population as percentage of total population) which are member states of the OIC

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(50 per cent or more) and are member states of the OIC. Population and governance data are also included. Additionally, the Palestinian authority is also a member of the OIC, but Kosovo, which was supported in its independence movement by the OIC, is not yet a member state. 5.2 Olympic host city bid successes since 1960 and OIC shortlist To examine the possibility of a city from the Muslim world hosting the Olympic Games, I have first examined past history of the modern Olympics, and have researched host cities and criteria by which selection chances are amplified. Thus, by applying key factors for becoming a host city for the Olympic Games to the OIC list of Muslim member countries, nations which are unsuitable can be eliminated from their list. Sufficient development to fund the necessary infrastructural requirements that the Olympic Games demands is first and foremost. According to the most recent selection process, that for the 2016 games, eventually awarded to Rio de Janeiro, the IOC apply 11 technical criteria to select an Olympic host city, namely, government support; infrastructure; sporting venues; planned Olympic village; environmental conditions and impact; accommodation; transport plan; safety and security; past events experience; finance; and overall project and legacy (IOC, 2009). In terms of the process of selection, host cities wishing to bid, prepare their bids typically a minimum of three years prior to the IOC decision. The decision itself is approximately seven years prior to the games. Thus, a decade or more is committed by a host city in preparing a bid, being award the games, and actually hosting the event (Hasan, 1999). Table II shows fiscal statistics for host nations of the Summer Olympics from 1960. Though these are all 2008 statistics, they provide a reasonable benchmark of national development and indicate the general level of economic stability (Mules, 2005). Consequently, under-developed and developing nations below historic success thresholds can be eliminated from the OIC list as unsuitable to host the games, as it can be reasonably assumed that financial guarantees demanded by the IOC would not be forthcoming. Based on this, and using the lowest approximate value from previous games, nations with per capita GDP below US$3,000 (similar to China who hosted

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Country Italy Japan Mexico Germany Canada USSR/Russia USA South Korea Spain Australia Greece China Great Britain Brazil

Host city Rome Tokyo Mexico City Munich Montreal Moscow Los Angeles, Atlanta Seoul Barcelona Sydney Athens Beijing London Rio de Janeiro

Olympic year 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984, 1996 1988 1992 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

GDP (PPP) per capita (US$) 38,996 38,457 10,200 44,729 45,085 11,807 47,440 19,136 35,117 46,824 32,105 3,259 43,734 8,295

GDP (millions of US$) 2,313,893 4,910,692 1,088,128 3,673,105 1,499,551 1,676,586 14,441,425 929,124 1,601,964 1,013,461 357,548 4,327,448 2,680,000 1,572,839

Table II. List of countries to have hosted the Summer Olympics with corresponding host cities, GDP (nominal) per capita and GDP (nominal) based on IMF and World Bank 2008 statistics

the 2008 games in Beijing) and GDP below US$350,000 million (similar to Greece (Nixon, 2005) who hosted the 2004 games in Athens), results in 21 member nations from the OIC being removed. Furthermore, other OIC member nations have been removed due to a variety of other reasons. Iraq has been removed as, due to recent wars, security and poor infrastructure, it will likely take decades to reach standards required. Saudi Arabia is also not shortlisted, as religious conservatism will impede hosting public events with the participation of women and broader media issues would be too restrictive; Syria and Iran both have longstanding political tensions with Israel and USA, particularly on the issues of Palestine, Lebanon, Hezbollah, nuclear proliferation and disputed territories such as the Golan Heights, which will likely negate IOC confidence for the foreseeable future. However, Iran, with a solid history of participation in the Olympics and strong historical and cultural significance, remains in the list for further analysis. Bahrain and Maldives are inadequate in size (665 and 300 km2, respectively) to host the games. Though Bahrain has successfully hosted a Formula 1 motor sport race annually since 2004, this global event is a single event with comparatively limited impact. The Maldives, which is topographically the lowest country on the planet, consequently suffers from environmental issues, most widely publicised being the catastrophic Tsunami in 2004. Maldives is thus not a viable host option, though fiscally more stable than others already rejected from the OIC list. The majority of this nation of atolls will likely disappear over the course of this century and the current priority of the government of the Maldives is to actively seek the purchase of land elsewhere, in order to relocate the nation's inhabitants. I have also excluded nations who have no substantive Olympic record, in that they have never won a single medal at the Olympics. These additional nations are Albania, Brunei, Oman, Jordan, Turkmenistan and Libya. 5.3 Analysis of shortlist candidate cities and final selection Analysing and deconstructing the technical criteria for selecting a host city by the IOC, listed earlier, can now be done in the context of the remaining Muslim countries and their likely bidding cities. Factors that indicate possible success in bidding include whether or not a potential host city has a past history of bidding, though it is reassuring to some Muslim hosts that have not bid previously, that five out of the last six cities to have hosted the Olympic Games won on their first bid attempt. Other factors are the cultural and historical significance of the host city and/or country; political stability; social stability including religious freedom, racial equality, human rights, equality of women and non-discrimination; security risk based on recent history; the existence of sporting, transportation and hospitality infrastructure upon which a bid can be built; a history of hosting other mega-events, either regional or global and the outcome of them. The final factor included in the list is provision of a public fiscal guarantee. Owing to rising costs of hosting the games, coupled with interest at an international level, the IOC cannot, more than ever, risk failure in the delivery of an Olympic Games. Consequently, the committee decided that governments must act as financial guarantor when a city bids to host the Olympics (Lenskyj, 2004, p. 370). These factors are not exhaustive, but provide indicators as to the likelihood of success by a Muslim nation to bid for one of its cities to host the games in the near future. Applying all the measures and eliminations described, an analysis of all the remaining 14 member nations of the OIC based on the criteria outlined is given in Table III.

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Country (bidding city) Political stability Improving since cancelled elections of 1991 led to a decade of unrest Unrest of 1990s resulted in many athletes resettling in France Mediterranean Games (1975) Security (historical) Existing infrastructure 11 games 14 medals Rich in tradition pre and post-Islam, Ottoman and French rule, UNESCO World Heritage sites

Algeria (Algiers)

Azerbaijan Eurasia (Baku) 4 Rich in folklore, First Muslim games 16 medals music, art, architecture world secular and sport democracy 1918 Women's hijab banned in public buildings Stable since independence from USSR 19 games 24 medals Very rich and diverse Independent since history third and fourth 1953, semidynasties date to around democratic 3000 BC when pyramids presidential system, were built, Tutankhamen Hosni Mubarak ruled from 1336 BC for served last five nine years, Assyrians terms with Muslim (671 BC), Persia (525 BC), Brotherhood his Alexander the Great (332 main opponents BC), Islam (642), Cairo Peasant activism founded (969), Ottomans and emergency law (1517), Napoleon (1798), (since 1967) Egyptology from around also persist 1820

Egypt (Cairo )

Table III. Selection of potential host nations (cities) for the Olympic Games from majority Muslim countries (ranked by total population) based on key measures
History and Olympic history traditions GDP (PPP) per GDP Major sporting capita (millions events held (US$) of US$) Potential host Strong economy, low fiscal deficit and good energy sector revenues Fair air, road and rail network, limited but growing hospitality and tourism sector Sound business infrastructure according to World Bank, economic growth, good transportation and penetration of telecoms Limited scale -, e.g. Chess tournaments (Baku, 2008 FIDE Grand Prix) Recent history of Developing infrastructure, No significant terrorist shootings and well developed media, event hosted bombings of tourists growth in telecoms (Etisalat since the inaugural around Egypt and Orascom) Most deadly were 62 Development marred by Mediterranean tourists shot and killed at corruption Games of 1951 Luxor (1997) and 88 Transportation in Alexandria killed in bombings in infrastructure is dated Sharm el-Sheikh (2005) though functional, Cairo well equipped for tourism, mega-event hosting needs development 6,538 159,669 Though IOC expressed wish for African nation for 2020, Algeria still recovering from political and social unrest of 1990s so bid in near future is unrealistic 7,656 46,378 Though politically, economically and geographically sound, needs to develop infrastructure and portfolio of sporting venues and events 5,491 162,617 Cairo currently reviewing its potential to host major sporting events (continued )

Past bid as host Continent (city)

Africa

-

2016 (Baku)

Africa

-

Country (bidding city) Political stability Regional al-Qaeda supported terrorism remains a major obstacle for Indonesia (Schwarz, 2000) Security (historical) Existing infrastructure 13 games 25 medals Diverse in?uences of indigenous and foreign settlers Religion covers Islam, Buddhism, Christianity, Hinduism and Confucianism Religious and ethnic fusion shapes much of the cultural tradition Chinese and Indian tradition is also strong, e.g. in cuisine

Past bid as host Continent (city) History and Olympic history traditions

GDP (PPP) per GDP Major sporting capita (millions events held (US$) of US$) Potential host

Indonesia ( Jakarta)

Asia

-

Iran (Tehran)

Asia

Considered 14 games bid for 48 medals 1984 but withdrew

In the current climate, a Tehran games would likely result in a return to boycotts (such as in 1980 and 1984) from Western nations, which the IOC would certainly wish to avoid

Kazakhstan Asia (Almaty) 4 games 39 medals

Almaty bid for 2014 Winter Olympics

Annexation of East Jemaah Islamiyah Sound tourist and Asian Games, 3,725 511,765 Timor in (1978) and Islamist group (al-Qaeda transportation 1962, South East human rights abuses affiliated) have targeted infrastructure Asian Games, alleged following tourist destinations and Olympic scale development 1979, independence (1999) Western interests across required in areas, such as 1987, 1997 was condemned Indonesia: stadia, but this could form Asian Judo internationally Jakarta Stock Exchange part of a bid Championships Political reform (2000 (1981 ) ) followed 1998 15 dead; Christmas Eve revolution and the Bombings (2000) 18 resignation of dead; Bali (2002) 202 Suharto dead; Marriott Hotel Founding member of (2003) 12 dead; Australian embassy ASEAN (2004) 9 dead; Bali (2005) 20 dead; Jakarta (2009) 7 dead Dates to 4000 BC, a Issues on nuclear Accusations of Believed Iran withdrew Asian Games, 10,624 335,233 former empire and proliferation, sponsorship of from 1974; West superpower in the form Israel persist international and 1984 bid due to recognition Asian Games of level of infrastructure (1997, 2010) of Persia, Islamic Uprising following regional terrorism conquest in the seventh 2009 presidential against Ahmedinejad expenditure required century, a Shi'a majority elections regime from Israel and nation since the sixteenth Western nations century, ruled by a Shah Sunni militant groups from this time until the carry out terrorist Islamic revolution of 1979 attacks within Iran, e.g. Iran is best known Zahedan bombing (2007) culturally for its film which killed 18 industry, literature, architecture and cuisine Major energy producer Post-Soviet culture Stable though No attacks to date, Almaty will 11,086 135,601 though Kazak's recent Fair transportation and developing, with political rights, host the Asian telecoms infrastructure in?uences from Islam religious freedom, westward leanings is Winter Games Landlocked nation in and neighbouring nation independence of the raising the level of 2011 highly strategic location- Asian Judo of China and Russia judiciary and civil perceived threat Silk Road and O&G liberties of Championships pipelines inhabitants is (2004 Kazak government investing ) criticised over $700 Mn into development for ASIAD 201 1

With a good summer climate, Kazakhstan could build on its Winter Olympics bid and ASIAD 2011 winter success and consider a bid for a Summer Olympics

(continued )

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Country (bidding city) Political stability Security (historical) Existing infrastructure 11 games 1 medal

Kuwait (Kuwait City)

Lebanon (Beirut)

Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur)

Table III.
History and Olympic history traditions GDP (PPP) per GDP Major sporting capita (millions events held (US$) of US$) Potential host Good potential 15 games 4 medals Political instability, ArabIsraeli tension, borders with Syria and Israel, economic impact of civil war and social strife, means Lebanon is not equipped for a major event in the foreseeable future Good potential 11 games 4 medals Greek, Ottoman and Stable constitutional No major incidents since Af?uent Gulf nation, high West Asian 39,305 158,089 British have ruled region monarchy since 1961 first Gulf War and, in standard of development Games (2002) through history with political parties recent years, terrorist marred by first Persian Gulf Football Kuwait founded in 1705 representative of plots have been allegedly war in 1990/1 tournaments: by Bani Utbah religious sects within thwarted against US Olympic Infrastructural Gulf Cup of Independence in 1961 the country military interests in development must take Nations regional Follows wellKuwait high temperatures and (1974, 1990, 2003); Arab documented Gulf Arab humidity into account tradition (Kennedy, 2004) Nations Cup (1964, 2002); Asian Cup (1980 ) Asian Judo Championships (1984, 2007) Ottoman rule Though election of A litany of hijacking, Arab-Israeli tensions have No significant 11,270 27,918 affected Lebanon since the event hosted Independence from Saad Hariri in Nov terrorism, war and French and British rule 2009 officially brings assassinations in recent 1967 war, civil war 1975- since the since 1941 an end to a lengthy history 1990, Israel control of Mediterranean period of time with southern Lebanon 1978, Games of 1959 effectively two Israeli attacks follow and governments buffer zone set up in 1983 followed by a power Tensions continue to today vacuum, political with Israeli invasion July tension remains high 2006 Vibrant tourist sector and Formula 1 13,315 207,116 Islamic rule and Mahathir Malaysian Jemaah Portuguese, Dutch and Mohammed's 22 Islamiyah members transportation Grand Prix; British colonialism have years as Prime believed to be involved in infrastructure is good, South East defined Malaysia until Minister (1981-2003) Indonesian attacks backed by sustainable Asian Games independence (1957) saw a decline in No attacks on Malaysian economic growth (1977, 1989, Multi-ethnic and multi- democratic values soil in recent years, Largest stadium by 2001 ) religious society Economic decline though warnings persist capacity in the Muslim and subsequent from Western nations world crime and ethnic (Goh, 1994) tensions in recent years (continued )

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Past bid as host Continent (city)

Asia

-

Asia

-

Asia

-

Country (bidding city) Political stability Mediterranean Games (1983 in Casablanca) 4,076 Security (historical) Existing infrastructure 12 games 21 medals Berber, Roman, Islamic Stable constitutional rule, French and Spanish monarchy protectorate, independence 1956

Past bid as host Continent (city) History and Olympic history traditions

GDP (PPP) per GDP Major sporting capita (millions events held (US$) of US$) Potential host 88,879 Expected to bid for 2020, IOC expressed wish for African nation for 2020 Security remains a problem

Morocco (Rabat)

Africa

-

Qatar (Doha)

Asia

2016 (Doha)

7 games 2 medals

Ruled by Ottomans, Safavid Iran, Bahrain and Oman, British protectorate post First World War, independence in 1971 Asian Games 2006; West Asian Games (2005 )

Casablanca has seen Popular tourist destination suicide bombings in 2003 with good-related (33 killed) and 2007 (one infrastructure killed in three separate incidents) Madrid bombings of 2004 which killed 191 linked to same terror group Stable absolute Underlying threat, one Excellent transportation monarchy, with suicide attack in 2005 and hospitality comparatively killed one expatriate infrastructure including liberal society within resident easy international passage a Gulf context Sporting infrastructure limited with only one 50,000 þ seater stadium

Tunisia (Tunis)

Africa

-

12 games 7 medals

Roman, Islamic/Ottoman Presidential Al-Qaeada sponsored and French rule, democracy with suicide bombing of independence 1956 state law banning synagogue (2002) killed Islamic political 21, including 14 German parties tourists Secularism is protected vigorously, women for example are not allowed to wear the hijab in public buildings Media/internet is censored, public criticism of authoritarian regime restricted

Economically sound, highly Mediterranean self-sufficient, with strong Games (1967, growth especially during 2001) 1990s, good urban development, real estate boom and effective poverty reduction measures taken Good transportation system Football-loving nation with three 50,000 þ seater stadia

80,870 102,302 Strong candidate with history of bidding, stable liberal society, strong economy and excellent infrastructure Considering to bid for 2020 (Doha) Climate is the only major issue 7,473 40,348 Potential future candidate

(continued )

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Country (bidding city) Political stability Security (historical) Existing infrastructure Trukey is on the Parliamentary Terrorist attacks and Economically strong, high Anatolian Peninsula, democracy with bombings (1999, 2003, growth in recent years and Perisan Empire, fell to close ties to the West, 2004 and 2008, 94 civilian diversified industry Alexander the Great in member of NATO deaths) Good transportation with 334 BC, later Byzantine with military bases, new high speed rail (Eastern Roman) Empire bidding for EU network from Constantine I (324 membership Largest auto racing venue CE Invaded Cyprus in in the Muslim world ) Byzantine fell in 1453 to 1974, remains Ottoman Empire (led by disputed territory Mehmed II) which spread with Greek Cypriot across the known world, nation only falling in 1920 in the Strongly secular, Treaty of Sevres after women's hijab First World War banned in public Turkish War of buildings Independence followed led by Mustafa Kemal Pasha (Ataturk) who later established the Republic of Turkey and became its first president Today, Turkey is secular

Turkey (Istanbul)

Table III.
History and Olympic history traditions GDP (PPP) per GDP Major sporting capita (millions events held (US$) of US$) Potential host Formula 1 Grand Prix; Mediterranean Games (1971 in Izmir) 12,888 729,983 Expected to bid for 2020 Strongest bidding and participation history of Olympics from the Muslim world Terrorism remains a major obstacle for Turkey to be awarded the Olympics Resolution of Cyprus issue and EU membership will strengthen Turkey in the medium term (continued )

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Past bid as host Continent (city)

Eurasia

2000, 2004, 20 games 2008 and 82 medals 2012 games (Istanbul)

Country (bidding city) Political stability 37,293 262,150 Security (historical) Existing infrastructure 7 games 1 medal

Past bid as host Continent (city) History and Olympic history traditions

GDP (PPP) per GDP Major sporting capita (millions events held (US$) of US$) Potential host Expected to bid for 2020 (Dubai) Ambitious development of "DubaiLand" and Dubai Sport City as well as continued infrastructure development in real estate, travel and tourism markets makes Dubai a strong competitor for Olympic success Dubai, as with other Gulf bidding cities, has a very hot and humid climate in the summer months which is a concern for the Olympics, though the UAE plans to counteract this with temperature controlled venues as far as possible and perhaps, hosting the games later in the year

United Arab Emirates (Dubai)

Asia

-

Formerly known as the Operates as a UAE has cooperated IMF classifies UAE as a Formula 1 Trucial States through federation of seven strongly with the west high income developing Grand Prix agreement with the emirates under a since the 1991 Gulf War economy, with fourth (Abu Dhabi) British in the nineteenth constitutional Financial dealings of al- largest oil reserves in the The century monarchy Qaeda in the UAE to world International Independent federation Highly tolerant, fund 9/11 hijackers UAE and Dubai in Cricket Council established in 1971 liberal and brought criticism of particular are ambitious moved from religiously inclusive money laundering, which Largest infrastructure Lord's Cricket Highly dependent on expatriate workforce society by Gulf the UAE has clamped expenditure in the Gulf ground to Dubai down on region in recent years in 2005 which accounts for over standards, 70 per cent of the nation's particularly (Randeree and Chaudhry, population compared to 2007 ) UAE is historically neighbours Iran and Significant expenditure on charitable, supporting Saudi Arabia transport infrastructure, relief efforts after natural Human rights, 20th busy airport in the disasters, support for particularly of low world, Dubai Metro Palestine and African paid expatriate recently opened, boasts the development projects in workers from poorer tallest building, tallest hotel in the world, huge offshore all estimated at around developing nations $40 Bn in foreign aid and remains an issue of real estate projects soft loans since 1971 international Growth tempered by global criticism, though recession in 2008/2009 measures have been taken in recent years (Randeree, 2008, 2009 )

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Former bidding cities from the Muslim world are limited. Notably, Istanbul with four bids has had the greatest number of unsuccessful bids in Olympic history. It is possible that the unsuccessful bids of Baku and Doha for the 2016 Olympic Games may have been intended purely for exposure and the establishment of a bidding history before embarking on serious attempts in the future, rather than a serious expectation of award. However, Istanbul and Doha once again, together with Dubai and Rabat, are all developing bids for the 2020 games, a decision on which is expected in 2013. The IOC has indicated a desire for an African host city in that year and, should they add the nations of the Arabian Peninsula, the stakes could not be higher. From the analysis detailed in Table III, ten cities have a favourable chance of success in the next six bidding contests to host the Olympic Games (though others may emerge in time). These are the three Persian Gulf (Asian) cities of Doha, Kuwait City and Dubai; the three African cities of Cairo, Rabat and Tunis; the two (further) Asian cities of Almaty and Kuala Lumpur and the two Eurasian cities of Baku and Istanbul. Five of these cities show the strongest evidence of potential success. Istanbul potentially is the most promising host city for the Olympics. Its major drawbacks are terrorism, the geo-politics of a divided Cyprus and, to comparatively lesser degrees, infrastructure and finance (Nielson, 1992). The strength of Turkey's participation in earlier Olympic Games, coupled with Istanbul's long bidding history, means the IOC may wish to prioritise Turkey and wait for them to alleviate their problems and obtain EU membership before awarding them the first games in the Muslim world. If, however, the IOC is not inclined to wait, a Persian Gulf city is the next likely recipient in the Muslim world, based on this analysis, of hosting the games. Doha, which bid to host the 2016 games, failed, in part, due to it wishing to host the event in late October (Doha 2016 Olympic Bid Committee, 2008), as opposed to the traditional summer months, as its summertime temperatures can soar to up to 50 8C. Though the bidding committee for Doha emphasised that hosting the games later in the year is not without precedent, with Melbourne (1956), Tokyo (1964) and Mexico City (1968) all hosting their games between October and December, these games pre-date the times when television rights and global audiences became of paramount importance. It is, along with Dubai, likely to bid for the 2020 games, with an assurance for holding the games during the more traditional summer months, with promises of temperature-controlled venues. Both cities, being very similar in terms of climate, are more than capable of delivering such venues due to their economic wealth as well as experience in infrastructure development, but the recent emphasis on greener games may hamper such bids. Events, such as the marathon, a signature event at the Olympics, would also remain adversely affected by high summer temperatures and high humidity. Finally, Kuala Lumpur and Cairo show potential. Kuala Lumpur is currently not targeting hosting the games, with the Olympic Council of Malaysia making no reference to competing to host the games in their last three annual general meetings (Olympic Council of Malaysia, 2009). Cairo is still in the infancy of developing a bid. 6. Conclusion Recently, as through the history of the modern Olympics, the economic and political value of hosting a global mega-event is viewed very optimistically. Whether or not the reality is positive or not is a source of debate. However, from the politics in Berlin in 1936,

Moscow in 1980 and Beijing in 2008 to the economics of profitability and tourism in Los Angeles in 1984 and Sydney in 2000, to city recognition and infrastructural improvements that signified Barcelona in 1992; there is ample evidence of the long-term value of the games if one looks for it. This paper can act as catalyst for member nations of the OIC to recognise that from a comparable viewpoint, it is potentially in their long-term geo-political and socio-economic interests for a member nation to host the Olympics. This paper sets out factors upon which the member nations of the OIC may contemplate developing an approach for securing an Olympic Games in the Muslim world, and developing an agenda for its legacy of engagement with the rest of the world. From the perspective of the broader international community, engagement with the Muslim world could not be more necessary or timely than at present, and sport has historically been demonstrated as an effective tool in achieving similar goals.

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