Reliance Power IPO

Reliance Power IPO raises buzz in stock market circuit

NEW DELHI: Vikas Bansal runs a brokerage firm at Ramnagar, near the Corbett National Park, in Uttaranchal. For him, the last few days were very hectic as his clients are selling lots of scrips to liquidate their positions in the secondary market.

The reason is to gather enough money to take exposure in the forthcoming IPO of Reliance Power, which is incidentally the country’s biggest one.

Not only this, thousands of people have inquired and quite a large number of them have opened up demat accounts in the last fortnight to invest in Reliance Power. For him, the times have never been so good since he started his firm a year ago. This increased activity in the secondary market has raised a few concerns amongst the analysts that the Reliance Power IPO will lead to huge selling in the exchange and tumbling stocks. When SundayET posed this question to SEBI chairman, M Damodaran, he remains unperturbed.

“It’s quite natural for the secondary market to see fluctuations on account of a big IPO being lined up in the primary market. Overall, I don’t see any reasons for panic and reverses in the flow of funds to the Indian market,” Mr Damodaran said.

However, analysts fear that with everyone wanting to participate in the upcoming IPO, it may trigger huge selling in the secondary market in the coming week. Ashish Kapur, CEO, Invest Shoppe, a Delhi-based brokerage firm, fears that there could be wide-ranging implications of the Reliance Power IPO on the stock exchange, when the issue opens up for subscription on Tuesday.

“The market can become very dangerous. FIIs and Mutual Funds are also likely to pull out huge money from the secondary market to invest in the issue, which can have immediate effect on the market tide. That’s why fresh money is very important for any growing market,” says Kapur.

A COO of a large brokerage firm cautions that it’s important for the market that Reliance Power lists with gains on the bourses. “A lot of money is at stake. Small investors are dreaming big from this IPO, making it all the more important for this IPO to sail through smoothly. Otherwise, small investors may get struck, if it lists at a discount. Market may well do a reverse in that situation. However, if it lists at premium, it is going to create good liquidity in the system,” he says.

However, Arvind Mahajan, executive director, KPMG India, believes that the company has been smart in pricing its offering at the higher level (Rs 405-450). “If the pricing is low, investors tend to sell stocks within a few days of the scrip getting listed as they try to book some quick profits.

For instance, there are more chances that an investor will sell a stock, whose offering price was Rs 100, if it lists at Rs 125. For him, it’s a 25% gain in no time. But with a high price band, there is more money on the table and considering that it’s a greenfield project, no company would like to be in a situation where investors put in their money for making a quick buck,” he explains.


Source : Economic Times
 
The much awaited Reliance Power is finally cmng out with its IPO on Jan15th-Jan18th.The Price band is Rs.405-Rs.450.


-Deepak.


Even If Reliance Power lists at Rs 650-700(people were estimating it to open @ around 800-900 levels b4 d Bloody Tuesday), it will be ridiculously priced stock.

Reasons:

NTPC has a current capacity of nearly 28000 MW.

NTPC plans to raise it to 66000 MW by 2017.

Reliance Power claims that it has projects of 28000 MW.

However, none of them are functional right now.

The first cash flows will come not before 2010 - Rosa I and II will be commissioned in December 2009 and mid 2010 respectively.

Rosa (I + II) is just a 900 MW project.

Shahpur project (2800 MW gas + 1200 MW coal) will start operations in 2011.

Dadri's 7500 MW project will be operational in late 2011 or early 2012.

Other projects will be operational even later.

Reliance Power will achieve 28000 MW capacity not before 2016.

Reliance Power will have a market value almost touching NTPC's current market value

NTPC is available at approx. 25+ times FY 2008 earnings....this itself is an expensive price for a utility stock. (Chinese power companies are trading at around 15 times FY 2009 earnings).

Thus, Reliance Power no major cash flows for next 3 years looks ridiculously priced to me.
 
the stock is over-priced. Lets see how it list on Monday. I am sure that selling pressure is going to mount on the share price as there are people who have lost their money in the recent crash. Also the leveraged position would be trying to hard to push the sell button. This IPO I view it like an euphoria which has to burst. Reliance Power is trying to factor in the much of its future earnings through this IPO which is not fair. It clearly states that the promoters are not leaving any money on the table. No offence meant. Opinions Invited.
 
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