Description
Demographics are the quantifiable statistics of a given population. Demographics is also used to identify the study of quantifiable subsets within a given population which characterize that population at a specific point in time.
Technical report
Labour market and demography project
By Catherine Barham, Labour Market Division, Office for National Statistics
Labour market and demography
Key points
q Projections indicate that the population of the UK is likely to increase from 59.8 million in 2000 to nearly 65 million by 2025. Two-thirds of this increase is attributable to new inward migration. q The age structure of the population is also projected to change, with the mean age rising from 38.8 years in 2000 to 42.6 years by 2025. By 2007 it is expected that there will be more people of pensionable age than children under 16. q Work on the labour market and demography project will be divided into two main areas: factors which have impact on the size and structure of the population of working age; and factors influencing the participation rates of groups of people in the labour market. q Comments on the proposed content of the project are welcome by the end of March 2002.
This article presents data showing the expected impact of the changing population structure on the labour market and considers what further research needs to be done.
Introduction
IN JUNE 2000 the Cabinet Office produced two reports Adding it Up and Wiring it Up. These reports looked at how to improve analysis as part of evidence-based policy making and also how to improve the formulation and management of crosscutting policies and services. Adding it Up made particular mention of the need to improve the extent to which analysis is carried out covering crosscutting issues. In response to this, a review of existing research and analysis work within the Social Directorate of ONS was conducted in summer 2000. This was followed by a series of brainstorming sessions with the aim of identifying gaps in analysis which could be met by crosscutting projects. A variety of projects were identified, including one looking at the relationship between demography and labour market supply. Others identified within the same portfolio were ethnicity and identity, inequality, the elderly, e-society, health surveys and social capital. This paper outlines the work carried out to date on the labour market and demography project, which is being led by ONS’s Labour Market Division, and sets out the work planned for the coming year.
March 2002
Labour Market
trends 151
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Labour market and demography
Figure
1
Population structure by age, sex and economic activity; United Kingdom; spring 1992, not seasonally adjusted
Male
Age 75
Year of birth 1917
Female
65
1927
55
1937
45
1947
35
1957
25
1967
15
1977
5 0 600 500 400 300 Thousands Economically inactive ILO unemployed 200 100 0
1987 1992 0 100 200 300 Thousands In employment
Source: Labour Force Survey
400
500
600
Context for the work
There are a number of key demographic trends that are important to take into account when looking at factors impacting on labour market supply. Projections suggest that the population of the UK is likely to increase from 59.8 million in 2000 to reach nearly 65 million by 2025. This equates to a 0.3 per cent annual growth rate. What is perhaps more interesting to note is that around two-thirds of this projected 5.1 million increase in population between 2000 and 2025 is attributable to new 152 Labour Market trends
March 2002
inward migration. The remainder is classified as natural increase, that is, the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths. In the longer term, projections indicate that the UK population will peak at nearly 66 million in 2040 and will then begin to fall. This relative stability in terms of overall size disguises marked changes in age structure. It is well known that the population of the UK is steadily ageing with the mean age predicted to rise from 38.8 years in 2000 to 42.6 years by 2025. In 2000 there were nearly 1.3 million more children aged
under 16 than people of state pension age. This is projected to change in the future as, from 2007, it is expected that there will be more pensioners than children. By 2025, people of pensionable age will outnumber children by nearly 2 million. These changes mean that the number of people of working age (currently 16-64 for men and 16-59 for women) will rise by only around 6 per cent from 36.9 million in 2000 to 39 million in 2011. Given that the increase in women’s state retirement age from 60 to 65 is due to be introduced between 2010 and 2020, the
Labour market and demography
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Figure
2
Population structure by age, sex and economic activity; United Kingdom; spring 2001, not seasonally adjusted
Male
Age 75
Year of birth 1926
Female
65
1936
55
1946
45
1956
35
1966
25
1976
15
1986
5 0 600 500 400 300 Thousands Economically inactive ILO unemployed 200 100 0
1996 2001 0 100 200 300 Thousands In employment
Source: Labour Force Survey
400
500
600
population of working age is predicted to rise to 40.8 million by 2021. Although the size of this group is projected to increase only slightly, the composition will alter fairly dramatically. The working-age population will become much older and there will be little or no change in the number of adults aged under 30 as a result of the ageing of the baby-boom generation of the mid-1960s. The population pyramids shown here illustrate these changes to population structure by age, sex and economic activity in the UK. Figures 1 and 2
show the changes between 1992 and 2001 in economic activity as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Figures 3, 4 and 5 have been constructed using economic activity rates for spring 2001 from the LFS and, assuming stable rates, applying these to the 2000-based population projections for 2002, 2005 and 2010.1 Data for interim years have also been calculated, and a dynamic version of these pyramids is available on the National Statistics website.2 Population projections data can be found on the Government Actuary’s Department website at www.gad.gov.uk.
Scoping study
The rationale for looking at factors which influence the supply of labour comes in part from the review of the labour market framework which ONS is coordinating.3 The aim of this review is to provide an overarching model of the labour market, which encompasses the huge range of sources describing the various elements within this. The framework is based on an underlying supply/demand model. In this the adult population actually or potentially supply their labour in order to meet the
March 2002 Labour Market
trends 153
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Labour market and demography
Figure
3
Projected population structure by age, sex and economic activity; United Kingdom; 2002a
Male
Age 75
Year of birth 1927
Female
65
1937
55
1947
45
1957
35
1967
25
1977
15
1987
5 0 600 500 400 300 Thousands Economically active Economically inactive 200 100 0
1997 2002 0 100 200 300 Thousands 400 500 600
Source: ONS a Constructed using spring 2001 Labour Force Survey economic activity rates applied to 2000-based population projections.
demands of employers. In economic activity terms, the employed are supplying labour, the unemployed are in a position to supply their labour, and the economically inactive are potential suppliers. This project will focus on supply rather than demand due to the more complex socio-demographic interactions that have an impact on this. There are, however, a number of areas where it will be necessary to broaden this definition in order to explain the full picture. The aim of the labour market and demography project is to investigate 154 Labour Market trends
March 2002
the impact of these broad demographic changes on the labour market, both in terms of size and composition. Work started on the demographic elements in 2001 with an initial scoping study. The aim was to identify gaps and develop a number of feasible analytical projects for further investigation. One of the findings from this was that there has already been a great deal of research carried out into potential demographic influences on labour market supply, although this has not been brought together in a systematic way.
In addition, this is a complex area with many interacting factors. In order to add value, a framework for breaking the project down into smaller parts was necessary.
Framework for labour market and demography project
The demographic changes mentioned above relate to the total population of the UK. It is clear that the size
Labour market and demography
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Figure
4
Projected population structure by age, sex and economic activity; United Kingdom; 2005a
Male
Age 75
Year of birth 1930
Female
65
1940
55
1950
45
1960
35
1970
25
1980
15
1990
5 0 600 500 400 300 Thousands Economically active Economically inactive 200 100 0
2000 2005 0 100 200 300 Thousands 400 500 600
Source: ONS a Constructed using spring 2001 Labour Force Survey economic activity rates applied to 2000-based population projections.
and structure of the labour force in an area will depend on two main factors: firstly the size and structure of the population of working age, and secondly the participation rates or willingness of groups of people to join the labour force. One example of the latter has been the dramatic increase in participation rates for women over the past 25 years. Other changes, including the extended duration of full-time education and the increased popularity of early retirement, have had the impact of
shrinking the size of the population available for work. In this sense, predicting future changes to participation rates is a far more complex process than projecting the size and structure of the population of working age. In the case of the latter, the main uncertainties involve migration patterns, whereas predicting participation rates requires assumptions to be made about such topics as future levels of economic activity, the structure of the economy, socio-economic influences on family and household struc-
tures, and the impact of technology on numbers and types of jobs.
Proposed future work Demographic influences on population size
This division of the demographic influences on labour market supply, into those which impact on the population and those which influence the likelihood that people will work, forms the basis for the future work planned. The
March 2002 Labour Market
trends 155
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Labour market and demography
Figure
5
Projected population structure by age, sex and economic activity; United Kingdom; 2010a
Male
Age 75
Year of birth 1935
Female
65
1945
55
1955
45
1965
35
1975
25
1985
15
1995
5 0 600 500 400 300 Thousands Economically active Economically inactive 200 100 0
2005 2010 0 100 200 300 Thousands 400 500 600
Source: ONS a Constructed using spring 2001 Labour Force Survey economic activity rates applied to 2000-based population projections.
first step will be to bring together the wealth of information already in existence on the past and future changes to the size of the population of working age. This will include looking for techniques to identify and illustrate patterns in the data, for example using dynamic population pyramids and other types of dynamic graphics that can be used interactively on the NS website. As mentioned above, migration will have an increasing input in predicting the size and structure of the population of working age. Questions to be 156 Labour Market trends
March 2002
answered include whether or not labour shortages could be affected by socioeconomic conditions that discourage certain types of work; whether skills shortages arise from the rapid expansion of certain industries, and which lead in turn to migration; and issues relating to European and other international migration patterns which impact on the UK labour market. Another important aspect is the influence of migration within smaller areas of the UK, where the size and composition of the population has an impact on the labour market.
Demographic influences on the propensity of people to work
It is proposed that the second stage of the project will be to look at the demographic influences on the propensity of people to work. In order to investigate these issues in more detail, it is important to narrow the focus from general population issues to smaller subgroups. The scoping study identified a number of key issues relating to subgroups, and there are two main
Labour market and demography
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Box 1 Proposed plan of outputs
Major topic 1) Demographic influences on population size Subtopic a) Past and future trends in the size and composition of the labour force b) Migration and its impact on the structure of the labour force in local areas 2) Demographic influences on propensity to work a) Household and family influences on labour market supply b) Factors influencing the over-50s’ decisions and abilities to work c) Early life-decisions among those aged 16-25 Outputs LMT article and dynamic web product LMT article Estimated date Summer 2002
Autumn 2002
LMT article
Autumn 2002
LMT article
Winter 2002
Possible LMT article
Spring 2003
areas that the labour market and demography project proposes to look at initially. These are: q the household and family influences affecting an individual’s willingness and ability to supply their labour; and q the circumstances influencing the over-50s’ decisions and abilities to supply their labour. In relation to the first issue, family and household structures are an obvious way in which demographic factors influence labour market supply. Changing patterns in the popularity and age of marriage and cohabitation over the past 20 or so years have had a dramatic impact on household composition in the UK today. Issues such as the existence, or otherwise, of extended family links in facilitating participation in the workforce will be looked at as well as other factors such as caring and childcare. As mentioned above, one of the key family/household changes has been the feminisation of the workforce, mainly among married women. Given the stability, or even reduction, in the size of the cohort entering the labour market as a result of general demographic trends, the significance of the growth in the number of women returning to paid work after a break for children is likely to increase. Fewer children per
woman has also meant that the length of time women are not available to the labour force has reduced. Changes in the age at which women have their first child could also impact on the supply of available labour. For the second issue, the increase in the number and proportion of older workers as a result of the overall ageing of the population is likely to throw up a number of issues that have an impact on labour supply. These include the concept of life-long learning and whether this group will have the appropriate skills to adapt to changes in the type of jobs available. Other issues on an individual family/household level include the extent of private pension provision, which may enhance the choice to opt for early retirement, and the impact of marital status and household composition on economic activity levels. Changes to the retirement policies of employers may also be important to consider. Following the completion of the first two projects above, it may be decided to scope and carry out a further research subproject within the broad heading of youth. This would look at the early life-decisions that take place among those aged 16-25 and the relationship between education and patterns of economic activity.
Next steps
These topics have arisen as a result of the initial scoping and are examples of the types of issues the project will cover. The process for exploring each of these topics will involve: q identifying any available information on user requirements, including holding a workshop with key stakeholders to ensure, for example, policy relevance; q investigating coverage of previous and ongoing research in the area and the international context for the work; q identifying and prioritising key questions to be addressed by the project; q obtaining required data sources, software and documentation, and carrying out necessary analytical work; and q drafting, circulating and publishing final articles/reports via appropriate media (see Box 1).
Consultation
One of the aims of this series of crosscutting projects is to bring together a variety of areas of expertise to improve our understanding of multitopical issues. It is imperative, therefore, that a wide variety of experts in
March 2002 Labour Market
trends 157
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Labour market and demography
the relevant fields are consulted. Within ONS, the project will primarily be coordinated by Labour Market Division, with input from Population and Demography Division. In addition, ONS welcomes comments on the content of the proposed workplan from other interested parties. Comments should be sent to Catherine Barham at [email protected] by the end of March 2002.
Notes
1 Regrossed Labour Force Survey data will be published in April 2002. ONS is planning to produce updated national labour force projections following the release of the regrossed data. Publication on-line is planned for September with an article to follow in Labour Market Trends later in the year. For more information, e-mail [email protected]. The population pyramids can be accessed from the labour market theme pages at www.statistics.gov.uk/themes/labour_market. The White Paper Building trust in statistics includes, among other things, a commitment to assuring the quality of National Statistics, and refers to a programme of reviews of key outputs. The labour market theme working group decided that one of its first reviews should relate to the framework of labour market statistics. This review began in mid-2001 and is expected to be completed by mid-2002. See p463, Labour Market Trends, October 2001 and the National Statistics website www.statistics.gov.uk.
2 3
References
Shaw C., ‘2000-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries’, Population Trends 107, to be published on 28 March 2002. Ghee C., ‘Population review of 2000: England and Wales’, pp7-14, Population Trends 106, winter 2001. Performance Innovation Unit, Cabinet Office, Wiring it Up: Whitehall’s management of crosscutting policies and services, 2000, and Adding it Up: Improving analysis and modelling in central government, 2000.
For further information, contact: Catherine Barham, Room B3/04, Office for National Statistics, 1 Drummond Gate, London SW1V 2QQ, e-mail [email protected], tel. 020 7533 6159.
i
158 Labour Market trends
March 2002
doc_380252668.pdf
Demographics are the quantifiable statistics of a given population. Demographics is also used to identify the study of quantifiable subsets within a given population which characterize that population at a specific point in time.
Technical report
Labour market and demography project
By Catherine Barham, Labour Market Division, Office for National Statistics
Labour market and demography
Key points
q Projections indicate that the population of the UK is likely to increase from 59.8 million in 2000 to nearly 65 million by 2025. Two-thirds of this increase is attributable to new inward migration. q The age structure of the population is also projected to change, with the mean age rising from 38.8 years in 2000 to 42.6 years by 2025. By 2007 it is expected that there will be more people of pensionable age than children under 16. q Work on the labour market and demography project will be divided into two main areas: factors which have impact on the size and structure of the population of working age; and factors influencing the participation rates of groups of people in the labour market. q Comments on the proposed content of the project are welcome by the end of March 2002.
This article presents data showing the expected impact of the changing population structure on the labour market and considers what further research needs to be done.
Introduction
IN JUNE 2000 the Cabinet Office produced two reports Adding it Up and Wiring it Up. These reports looked at how to improve analysis as part of evidence-based policy making and also how to improve the formulation and management of crosscutting policies and services. Adding it Up made particular mention of the need to improve the extent to which analysis is carried out covering crosscutting issues. In response to this, a review of existing research and analysis work within the Social Directorate of ONS was conducted in summer 2000. This was followed by a series of brainstorming sessions with the aim of identifying gaps in analysis which could be met by crosscutting projects. A variety of projects were identified, including one looking at the relationship between demography and labour market supply. Others identified within the same portfolio were ethnicity and identity, inequality, the elderly, e-society, health surveys and social capital. This paper outlines the work carried out to date on the labour market and demography project, which is being led by ONS’s Labour Market Division, and sets out the work planned for the coming year.
March 2002
Labour Market
trends 151
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Labour market and demography
Figure
1
Population structure by age, sex and economic activity; United Kingdom; spring 1992, not seasonally adjusted
Male
Age 75
Year of birth 1917
Female
65
1927
55
1937
45
1947
35
1957
25
1967
15
1977
5 0 600 500 400 300 Thousands Economically inactive ILO unemployed 200 100 0
1987 1992 0 100 200 300 Thousands In employment
Source: Labour Force Survey
400
500
600
Context for the work
There are a number of key demographic trends that are important to take into account when looking at factors impacting on labour market supply. Projections suggest that the population of the UK is likely to increase from 59.8 million in 2000 to reach nearly 65 million by 2025. This equates to a 0.3 per cent annual growth rate. What is perhaps more interesting to note is that around two-thirds of this projected 5.1 million increase in population between 2000 and 2025 is attributable to new 152 Labour Market trends
March 2002
inward migration. The remainder is classified as natural increase, that is, the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths. In the longer term, projections indicate that the UK population will peak at nearly 66 million in 2040 and will then begin to fall. This relative stability in terms of overall size disguises marked changes in age structure. It is well known that the population of the UK is steadily ageing with the mean age predicted to rise from 38.8 years in 2000 to 42.6 years by 2025. In 2000 there were nearly 1.3 million more children aged
under 16 than people of state pension age. This is projected to change in the future as, from 2007, it is expected that there will be more pensioners than children. By 2025, people of pensionable age will outnumber children by nearly 2 million. These changes mean that the number of people of working age (currently 16-64 for men and 16-59 for women) will rise by only around 6 per cent from 36.9 million in 2000 to 39 million in 2011. Given that the increase in women’s state retirement age from 60 to 65 is due to be introduced between 2010 and 2020, the
Labour market and demography
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Figure
2
Population structure by age, sex and economic activity; United Kingdom; spring 2001, not seasonally adjusted
Male
Age 75
Year of birth 1926
Female
65
1936
55
1946
45
1956
35
1966
25
1976
15
1986
5 0 600 500 400 300 Thousands Economically inactive ILO unemployed 200 100 0
1996 2001 0 100 200 300 Thousands In employment
Source: Labour Force Survey
400
500
600
population of working age is predicted to rise to 40.8 million by 2021. Although the size of this group is projected to increase only slightly, the composition will alter fairly dramatically. The working-age population will become much older and there will be little or no change in the number of adults aged under 30 as a result of the ageing of the baby-boom generation of the mid-1960s. The population pyramids shown here illustrate these changes to population structure by age, sex and economic activity in the UK. Figures 1 and 2
show the changes between 1992 and 2001 in economic activity as measured by the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Figures 3, 4 and 5 have been constructed using economic activity rates for spring 2001 from the LFS and, assuming stable rates, applying these to the 2000-based population projections for 2002, 2005 and 2010.1 Data for interim years have also been calculated, and a dynamic version of these pyramids is available on the National Statistics website.2 Population projections data can be found on the Government Actuary’s Department website at www.gad.gov.uk.
Scoping study
The rationale for looking at factors which influence the supply of labour comes in part from the review of the labour market framework which ONS is coordinating.3 The aim of this review is to provide an overarching model of the labour market, which encompasses the huge range of sources describing the various elements within this. The framework is based on an underlying supply/demand model. In this the adult population actually or potentially supply their labour in order to meet the
March 2002 Labour Market
trends 153
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Labour market and demography
Figure
3
Projected population structure by age, sex and economic activity; United Kingdom; 2002a
Male
Age 75
Year of birth 1927
Female
65
1937
55
1947
45
1957
35
1967
25
1977
15
1987
5 0 600 500 400 300 Thousands Economically active Economically inactive 200 100 0
1997 2002 0 100 200 300 Thousands 400 500 600
Source: ONS a Constructed using spring 2001 Labour Force Survey economic activity rates applied to 2000-based population projections.
demands of employers. In economic activity terms, the employed are supplying labour, the unemployed are in a position to supply their labour, and the economically inactive are potential suppliers. This project will focus on supply rather than demand due to the more complex socio-demographic interactions that have an impact on this. There are, however, a number of areas where it will be necessary to broaden this definition in order to explain the full picture. The aim of the labour market and demography project is to investigate 154 Labour Market trends
March 2002
the impact of these broad demographic changes on the labour market, both in terms of size and composition. Work started on the demographic elements in 2001 with an initial scoping study. The aim was to identify gaps and develop a number of feasible analytical projects for further investigation. One of the findings from this was that there has already been a great deal of research carried out into potential demographic influences on labour market supply, although this has not been brought together in a systematic way.
In addition, this is a complex area with many interacting factors. In order to add value, a framework for breaking the project down into smaller parts was necessary.
Framework for labour market and demography project
The demographic changes mentioned above relate to the total population of the UK. It is clear that the size
Labour market and demography
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Figure
4
Projected population structure by age, sex and economic activity; United Kingdom; 2005a
Male
Age 75
Year of birth 1930
Female
65
1940
55
1950
45
1960
35
1970
25
1980
15
1990
5 0 600 500 400 300 Thousands Economically active Economically inactive 200 100 0
2000 2005 0 100 200 300 Thousands 400 500 600
Source: ONS a Constructed using spring 2001 Labour Force Survey economic activity rates applied to 2000-based population projections.
and structure of the labour force in an area will depend on two main factors: firstly the size and structure of the population of working age, and secondly the participation rates or willingness of groups of people to join the labour force. One example of the latter has been the dramatic increase in participation rates for women over the past 25 years. Other changes, including the extended duration of full-time education and the increased popularity of early retirement, have had the impact of
shrinking the size of the population available for work. In this sense, predicting future changes to participation rates is a far more complex process than projecting the size and structure of the population of working age. In the case of the latter, the main uncertainties involve migration patterns, whereas predicting participation rates requires assumptions to be made about such topics as future levels of economic activity, the structure of the economy, socio-economic influences on family and household struc-
tures, and the impact of technology on numbers and types of jobs.
Proposed future work Demographic influences on population size
This division of the demographic influences on labour market supply, into those which impact on the population and those which influence the likelihood that people will work, forms the basis for the future work planned. The
March 2002 Labour Market
trends 155
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Labour market and demography
Figure
5
Projected population structure by age, sex and economic activity; United Kingdom; 2010a
Male
Age 75
Year of birth 1935
Female
65
1945
55
1955
45
1965
35
1975
25
1985
15
1995
5 0 600 500 400 300 Thousands Economically active Economically inactive 200 100 0
2005 2010 0 100 200 300 Thousands 400 500 600
Source: ONS a Constructed using spring 2001 Labour Force Survey economic activity rates applied to 2000-based population projections.
first step will be to bring together the wealth of information already in existence on the past and future changes to the size of the population of working age. This will include looking for techniques to identify and illustrate patterns in the data, for example using dynamic population pyramids and other types of dynamic graphics that can be used interactively on the NS website. As mentioned above, migration will have an increasing input in predicting the size and structure of the population of working age. Questions to be 156 Labour Market trends
March 2002
answered include whether or not labour shortages could be affected by socioeconomic conditions that discourage certain types of work; whether skills shortages arise from the rapid expansion of certain industries, and which lead in turn to migration; and issues relating to European and other international migration patterns which impact on the UK labour market. Another important aspect is the influence of migration within smaller areas of the UK, where the size and composition of the population has an impact on the labour market.
Demographic influences on the propensity of people to work
It is proposed that the second stage of the project will be to look at the demographic influences on the propensity of people to work. In order to investigate these issues in more detail, it is important to narrow the focus from general population issues to smaller subgroups. The scoping study identified a number of key issues relating to subgroups, and there are two main
Labour market and demography
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Box 1 Proposed plan of outputs
Major topic 1) Demographic influences on population size Subtopic a) Past and future trends in the size and composition of the labour force b) Migration and its impact on the structure of the labour force in local areas 2) Demographic influences on propensity to work a) Household and family influences on labour market supply b) Factors influencing the over-50s’ decisions and abilities to work c) Early life-decisions among those aged 16-25 Outputs LMT article and dynamic web product LMT article Estimated date Summer 2002
Autumn 2002
LMT article
Autumn 2002
LMT article
Winter 2002
Possible LMT article
Spring 2003
areas that the labour market and demography project proposes to look at initially. These are: q the household and family influences affecting an individual’s willingness and ability to supply their labour; and q the circumstances influencing the over-50s’ decisions and abilities to supply their labour. In relation to the first issue, family and household structures are an obvious way in which demographic factors influence labour market supply. Changing patterns in the popularity and age of marriage and cohabitation over the past 20 or so years have had a dramatic impact on household composition in the UK today. Issues such as the existence, or otherwise, of extended family links in facilitating participation in the workforce will be looked at as well as other factors such as caring and childcare. As mentioned above, one of the key family/household changes has been the feminisation of the workforce, mainly among married women. Given the stability, or even reduction, in the size of the cohort entering the labour market as a result of general demographic trends, the significance of the growth in the number of women returning to paid work after a break for children is likely to increase. Fewer children per
woman has also meant that the length of time women are not available to the labour force has reduced. Changes in the age at which women have their first child could also impact on the supply of available labour. For the second issue, the increase in the number and proportion of older workers as a result of the overall ageing of the population is likely to throw up a number of issues that have an impact on labour supply. These include the concept of life-long learning and whether this group will have the appropriate skills to adapt to changes in the type of jobs available. Other issues on an individual family/household level include the extent of private pension provision, which may enhance the choice to opt for early retirement, and the impact of marital status and household composition on economic activity levels. Changes to the retirement policies of employers may also be important to consider. Following the completion of the first two projects above, it may be decided to scope and carry out a further research subproject within the broad heading of youth. This would look at the early life-decisions that take place among those aged 16-25 and the relationship between education and patterns of economic activity.
Next steps
These topics have arisen as a result of the initial scoping and are examples of the types of issues the project will cover. The process for exploring each of these topics will involve: q identifying any available information on user requirements, including holding a workshop with key stakeholders to ensure, for example, policy relevance; q investigating coverage of previous and ongoing research in the area and the international context for the work; q identifying and prioritising key questions to be addressed by the project; q obtaining required data sources, software and documentation, and carrying out necessary analytical work; and q drafting, circulating and publishing final articles/reports via appropriate media (see Box 1).
Consultation
One of the aims of this series of crosscutting projects is to bring together a variety of areas of expertise to improve our understanding of multitopical issues. It is imperative, therefore, that a wide variety of experts in
March 2002 Labour Market
trends 157
Technical report
Labour market and demography
Labour market and demography
the relevant fields are consulted. Within ONS, the project will primarily be coordinated by Labour Market Division, with input from Population and Demography Division. In addition, ONS welcomes comments on the content of the proposed workplan from other interested parties. Comments should be sent to Catherine Barham at [email protected] by the end of March 2002.
Notes
1 Regrossed Labour Force Survey data will be published in April 2002. ONS is planning to produce updated national labour force projections following the release of the regrossed data. Publication on-line is planned for September with an article to follow in Labour Market Trends later in the year. For more information, e-mail [email protected]. The population pyramids can be accessed from the labour market theme pages at www.statistics.gov.uk/themes/labour_market. The White Paper Building trust in statistics includes, among other things, a commitment to assuring the quality of National Statistics, and refers to a programme of reviews of key outputs. The labour market theme working group decided that one of its first reviews should relate to the framework of labour market statistics. This review began in mid-2001 and is expected to be completed by mid-2002. See p463, Labour Market Trends, October 2001 and the National Statistics website www.statistics.gov.uk.
2 3
References
Shaw C., ‘2000-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries’, Population Trends 107, to be published on 28 March 2002. Ghee C., ‘Population review of 2000: England and Wales’, pp7-14, Population Trends 106, winter 2001. Performance Innovation Unit, Cabinet Office, Wiring it Up: Whitehall’s management of crosscutting policies and services, 2000, and Adding it Up: Improving analysis and modelling in central government, 2000.
For further information, contact: Catherine Barham, Room B3/04, Office for National Statistics, 1 Drummond Gate, London SW1V 2QQ, e-mail [email protected], tel. 020 7533 6159.
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158 Labour Market trends
March 2002
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