Description
PROJECT ON VOLKSWAGEN TIGUAN
Volkswagen in China Dr. Joerg Mull
Executive Vice President, Finance Volkswagen Group China
Volkswagen in China Economic Indicators Current China Automotive Market Volkswagen Group China Sales-Performance Review Products Capacity and Investment Financial Results Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
Volkswagen Group in China 2010
Volkswagen’s operations in China
FAW-Volkswagen Volkswagen China Changchun Investment Company
Audi China Volkswagen Finance (China) Co., Ltd. Volkswagen Beijing Centre VW Import Co. Ltd.
History
• 1984: Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive Co. (SVW) as a joint venture between Volkswagen and Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corporation (or SAIC) was founded. Production milestone in November 2010 – 6 million cars. • Volkswagen was the automotive pioneer in the modern Chinese market. • 1990: FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co. Ltd. was set-up as our second joint venture in China. Production milestone in November 2010 – 4 million cars. • 2004: Volkswagen China Investment Company was founded to co-ordinate and manage all Volkswagen activities in China. • Today: Volkswagen is represented by 16 companies in China.
Volkswagen FAW Platform Volkswagen FAW Engine Volkswagen Automatic Transmission Shanghai Volkswagen Sitech Shanghai Volkswagen Volkswagen Transmission Shanghai Volkswagen Powertrain VW HK Co. Ltd.
Dalian Beijing
Nanjing Shanghai
Chengdu FAW-Volkswagen
• Total Investments 1984-2010: • Deliveries to Customers 2010: • Employees 2010 :
Source: Volkswagen Group China
€ 9.5bn 1,923m units ~41,000
3
Successful partnership with FAW and SAIC
1990 FAW: 60%, VW AG: 30%, Audi AG: 10% 853,582 No. 3 ~15,590
Jetta Sagitar
Foundation Share Deliveries 2010 Sales Ranking Employees1
Audi A6L Passat New LY Touran
1984 SAIC Motor: 50%, VW AG: 50% 991,807 No. 2 ~22,050
Lavida Fabia
New Bora
Magotan
Audi A4L
Polo HB
Polo NB
Cross Polo
Octavia
Golf A6
CC
Audi Q5
Santana
Santana Vista Tiguan LWB
Superb
Source: Volkswagen Group China 1 without VICO and VGC
4
Deliveries of Volkswagen in China 2010 (‘000 Units)
Import FBU
Locally Produced
Volkswagen
43,6
Audi
FAW-VW
658,7
194,9
33,0
Lamborghini, Bentley
1,1
SVW
811,3
180,5
Total Deliveries Region China
1,923
Source: Volkswagen Group China
5
Volkswagen in China Economic Indicators Current China Automotive Market Volkswagen Group China Sales-Performance Review Products Capacity and Investment Financial Results Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
The economy of China is on a track towards normalization
Economic Indicators
GDP [growth rate]
2008
9.6% 21.6% [CPI] [growth rate] 5.9% 26.1% 1.80% [growth rate] [growth rate] [$ bn] 17.2% 18.5% 92.4 6.83
2009
9.2% 15.5% -0.7% 30.5% 1.80% -16.0% -11.2% 90.0 6.83
2010
10.3% 18.4% 3.3% 23.8% 2.25% 31.3% 38.7% 105.7 6.78 8.97
2011 E
9.4% 17.5% 5.0% 21.0% 3.0% 17.0% 19.0% 100.0 6.56 9.20
Consumption (public + private) Inflation Investment Key Interest Rate Export Import Foreign Direct Investment
Exchange rate as of the end of the report period [RMB/USD] Exchange rate as of the end of the report period [RMB/EUR]
9.66
9.80
Source: Deutsche Bank
7
2010 GDP reached a 10.3% growth year on year, and the economy is now in a path of stable growth
2008
Cumulative Annual Growth 9.6%
2009
Cumulative Annual Growth 9.2%
2010
Cumulative Annual Growth 10.3% 11.9%
Q1 2011
10.6%
10.1% 9.0% 7.9% 6.8% 6.1% 8.9%
10.7%
10.3% 9.6%
9.8%
9.7%
Q1/08
Q2/08
Q3/08
Q4/08
Q1/09
Q2/09
Q3/09
Q4/09 Q1/10
Q2/10
Q3/10
Q4/10
Q1/11
Source: The National Bureau of Statistics China
8
Volkswagen in China Economic Indicators Current China Automotive Market Volkswagen Group China Sales-Performance Review Products Capacity and Investment Financial Results Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
After strong booming in past two years, passenger car market growth in China is excepted to stabilize in 2011
Total Passenger Car Market – China (incl. HK)
‘000 Units
+35% +54% 8,482 CAGR +19% 5,503 3,071 (Q1)
2008 2009 2010 2011E
11,457
2,266
2003
Source: CKD – CPCA; FBU - Registration
10
The passenger car market is estimated to maintain a positive trend in 2011, with a stable quarterly growth rate
China Total Market (incl. HK) – CY2011 vs. CY2010
Growth Rate 2011 vs. 2010 Full Year +10% 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 Jan
Source: CPCA; Volkswagen Group China
Q1 +15%
Q2
+15%
Q3 +10%
Q4
-1%
‘000 Units
1,255 1,088
CY 2010 Actual: 11.428 million units
728
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
CY2011 Forecast Most Likely Scenario: > 12 million units Sep Oct Nov Dec
11
The average industrial stock level by end of March 2011 increased significantly to 1.9
Current stock level (in month) of major OEMs
(>1.5) (1.2~1.5) (8% >9% 15,000 >12,000 11,457 20,000
2010
Source: Volkswagen Group China
2011E
2013E
2018E
41
Volkswagen Group China is on the track to contribute to worldwide Mach 18 Strategy
Volkswagen Group World Wide Volkswagen Group China 10 Mio.
7.1 Mio. 6.2 Mio. 6.3 Mio. Market Growth 1.9 Mio. 1.0 Mio. 1.4 Mio.
2008
Source: Volkswagen Group
2009
2010
2018
42
Volkswagen Group China plans to double the number of dealerships to ensure penetration and competitiveness >100%
>2,500
>400 >500
1,305
190 170 >1,600 945
2010
Source: Volkswagen Group China
medium-term
43
Our Vision
With 30 years of development and partnership, Volkswagen Group China is driving China’s sustainable future through innovation, performance and responsibility
44
Volkswagen in China Dr. Joerg Mull
Executive Vice President, Finance Volkswagen Group China
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the Volkswagen Group. These statements may be spoken or written and can be recognized by terms such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “believes”, “seeks”, “estimates”, “will” or words with similar meaning. These statements are based on assumptions relating to the development of the economies of individual countries, and in particular of the automotive industry, which we have made on the basis of the information available to us and which we consider to be realistic at the time of going to press. The estimates given involve a degree of risk, and the actual developments may differ from those forecast. Consequently, any unexpected fall in demand or economic stagnation in our key sales markets, such as in Western Europe (and especially Germany) or in the USA, Brazil or China, will have a corresponding impact on the development of our business. The same applies in the event of a significant shift in current exchange rates relative to the US dollar, sterling, yen, Brazilian real, Chinese renminbi and Czech koruna. If any of these or other risks occur, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by such statements. We do not update forward-looking statements retrospectively. Such statements are valid on the date of publication and can be superceded.
46
doc_497798808.pdf
PROJECT ON VOLKSWAGEN TIGUAN
Volkswagen in China Dr. Joerg Mull
Executive Vice President, Finance Volkswagen Group China
Volkswagen in China Economic Indicators Current China Automotive Market Volkswagen Group China Sales-Performance Review Products Capacity and Investment Financial Results Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
Volkswagen Group in China 2010
Volkswagen’s operations in China
FAW-Volkswagen Volkswagen China Changchun Investment Company
Audi China Volkswagen Finance (China) Co., Ltd. Volkswagen Beijing Centre VW Import Co. Ltd.
History
• 1984: Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive Co. (SVW) as a joint venture between Volkswagen and Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corporation (or SAIC) was founded. Production milestone in November 2010 – 6 million cars. • Volkswagen was the automotive pioneer in the modern Chinese market. • 1990: FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co. Ltd. was set-up as our second joint venture in China. Production milestone in November 2010 – 4 million cars. • 2004: Volkswagen China Investment Company was founded to co-ordinate and manage all Volkswagen activities in China. • Today: Volkswagen is represented by 16 companies in China.
Volkswagen FAW Platform Volkswagen FAW Engine Volkswagen Automatic Transmission Shanghai Volkswagen Sitech Shanghai Volkswagen Volkswagen Transmission Shanghai Volkswagen Powertrain VW HK Co. Ltd.
Dalian Beijing
Nanjing Shanghai
Chengdu FAW-Volkswagen
• Total Investments 1984-2010: • Deliveries to Customers 2010: • Employees 2010 :
Source: Volkswagen Group China
€ 9.5bn 1,923m units ~41,000
3
Successful partnership with FAW and SAIC
1990 FAW: 60%, VW AG: 30%, Audi AG: 10% 853,582 No. 3 ~15,590
Jetta Sagitar
Foundation Share Deliveries 2010 Sales Ranking Employees1
Audi A6L Passat New LY Touran
1984 SAIC Motor: 50%, VW AG: 50% 991,807 No. 2 ~22,050
Lavida Fabia
New Bora
Magotan
Audi A4L
Polo HB
Polo NB
Cross Polo
Octavia
Golf A6
CC
Audi Q5
Santana
Santana Vista Tiguan LWB
Superb
Source: Volkswagen Group China 1 without VICO and VGC
4
Deliveries of Volkswagen in China 2010 (‘000 Units)
Import FBU
Locally Produced
Volkswagen
43,6
Audi
FAW-VW
658,7
194,9
33,0
Lamborghini, Bentley
1,1
SVW
811,3
180,5
Total Deliveries Region China
1,923
Source: Volkswagen Group China
5
Volkswagen in China Economic Indicators Current China Automotive Market Volkswagen Group China Sales-Performance Review Products Capacity and Investment Financial Results Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
The economy of China is on a track towards normalization
Economic Indicators
GDP [growth rate]
2008
9.6% 21.6% [CPI] [growth rate] 5.9% 26.1% 1.80% [growth rate] [growth rate] [$ bn] 17.2% 18.5% 92.4 6.83
2009
9.2% 15.5% -0.7% 30.5% 1.80% -16.0% -11.2% 90.0 6.83
2010
10.3% 18.4% 3.3% 23.8% 2.25% 31.3% 38.7% 105.7 6.78 8.97
2011 E
9.4% 17.5% 5.0% 21.0% 3.0% 17.0% 19.0% 100.0 6.56 9.20
Consumption (public + private) Inflation Investment Key Interest Rate Export Import Foreign Direct Investment
Exchange rate as of the end of the report period [RMB/USD] Exchange rate as of the end of the report period [RMB/EUR]
9.66
9.80
Source: Deutsche Bank
7
2010 GDP reached a 10.3% growth year on year, and the economy is now in a path of stable growth
2008
Cumulative Annual Growth 9.6%
2009
Cumulative Annual Growth 9.2%
2010
Cumulative Annual Growth 10.3% 11.9%
Q1 2011
10.6%
10.1% 9.0% 7.9% 6.8% 6.1% 8.9%
10.7%
10.3% 9.6%
9.8%
9.7%
Q1/08
Q2/08
Q3/08
Q4/08
Q1/09
Q2/09
Q3/09
Q4/09 Q1/10
Q2/10
Q3/10
Q4/10
Q1/11
Source: The National Bureau of Statistics China
8
Volkswagen in China Economic Indicators Current China Automotive Market Volkswagen Group China Sales-Performance Review Products Capacity and Investment Financial Results Market & Volkswagen Group Outlook
After strong booming in past two years, passenger car market growth in China is excepted to stabilize in 2011
Total Passenger Car Market – China (incl. HK)
‘000 Units
+35% +54% 8,482 CAGR +19% 5,503 3,071 (Q1)
2008 2009 2010 2011E
11,457
2,266
2003
Source: CKD – CPCA; FBU - Registration
10
The passenger car market is estimated to maintain a positive trend in 2011, with a stable quarterly growth rate
China Total Market (incl. HK) – CY2011 vs. CY2010
Growth Rate 2011 vs. 2010 Full Year +10% 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 Jan
Source: CPCA; Volkswagen Group China
Q1 +15%
Q2
+15%
Q3 +10%
Q4
-1%
‘000 Units
1,255 1,088
CY 2010 Actual: 11.428 million units
728
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
CY2011 Forecast Most Likely Scenario: > 12 million units Sep Oct Nov Dec
11
The average industrial stock level by end of March 2011 increased significantly to 1.9
Current stock level (in month) of major OEMs
(>1.5) (1.2~1.5) (8% >9% 15,000 >12,000 11,457 20,000
2010
Source: Volkswagen Group China
2011E
2013E
2018E
41
Volkswagen Group China is on the track to contribute to worldwide Mach 18 Strategy
Volkswagen Group World Wide Volkswagen Group China 10 Mio.
7.1 Mio. 6.2 Mio. 6.3 Mio. Market Growth 1.9 Mio. 1.0 Mio. 1.4 Mio.
2008
Source: Volkswagen Group
2009
2010
2018
42
Volkswagen Group China plans to double the number of dealerships to ensure penetration and competitiveness >100%
>2,500
>400 >500
1,305
190 170 >1,600 945
2010
Source: Volkswagen Group China
medium-term
43
Our Vision
With 30 years of development and partnership, Volkswagen Group China is driving China’s sustainable future through innovation, performance and responsibility
44
Volkswagen in China Dr. Joerg Mull
Executive Vice President, Finance Volkswagen Group China
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the Volkswagen Group. These statements may be spoken or written and can be recognized by terms such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “believes”, “seeks”, “estimates”, “will” or words with similar meaning. These statements are based on assumptions relating to the development of the economies of individual countries, and in particular of the automotive industry, which we have made on the basis of the information available to us and which we consider to be realistic at the time of going to press. The estimates given involve a degree of risk, and the actual developments may differ from those forecast. Consequently, any unexpected fall in demand or economic stagnation in our key sales markets, such as in Western Europe (and especially Germany) or in the USA, Brazil or China, will have a corresponding impact on the development of our business. The same applies in the event of a significant shift in current exchange rates relative to the US dollar, sterling, yen, Brazilian real, Chinese renminbi and Czech koruna. If any of these or other risks occur, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by such statements. We do not update forward-looking statements retrospectively. Such statements are valid on the date of publication and can be superceded.
46
doc_497798808.pdf