Description
PROJECT ON IMPORT AND EXPORT OF PETROLEUM PRODUCT
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
IMPORT & EXPORT
Indian Option
A Presentation By
Muzahid Khan (muzahidkhan123@gmail)
UNIVERSITY OF PETROLEUM & ENERGY STUDIES
Highlights
? International Trading of Petroleum Products
? The Indian Scenario ? India-The Future Refinery Hub for exports
Internationally traded Petroleum Products
? Motor Gasoline
? Jet Fuel ? Kerosene ? Distillate Fuel Oil ? Residual Fuel Oil ? Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Major Refining Hubs
Rotterdam
Refinery Capacity: 64 MMTPA Refinery product surplus: 62 MMTPA Product Export: Europe hinterland, US
US Gulf Coast (USGC)
Refinery Capacity: 385 MMTPA Refinery product surplus: 106 MMTPA Product Export: Far East, Asia, Europe
Middle East
Refinery Capacity: 340 MMTPA Refinery product surplus: 92 MMTPA Product Export: Far East, Asia, Europe
Singapore
Refinery Capacity: 67 MMTPA Refinery product surplus: 40 MMTPA Product Export: Asia Pacific
16000
Total Exports and Imports of Refined Petroleum Products
WORLD TOTAL
6414.38
14000
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2348.52 2000 0 4286.76 1319.55 Central and S. America 7349.02 Europe 2180.36
Thousand Barrels per Day
Imports: 21,083.59 Exports: 21,856.61
4051.9
3360.69 2351.2 350.66 Eurasia 867.54 Middle East 1158.55 877.55 Africa 6032.51 Asia & Oceania
North America Source: EIA (2008)
Imports
Exports
World Oil Refining
World Refining capacity 1.1.2008 World Refining capacity & thruput 1980-2008 (mbpd)
88.6
90
USA 20% Others 49% China 9%
Refinery capacity
80 70
Total: 88.6 mbpd (4431 MMTPA)
S. Korea 3%
India 3%
• World oil demand grown faster than refining capacity-better capacity utilization • World average refy capacity utilization moves around 75% (1980) to 87% (2008) • USA: Refining capacity declining, reached peak of 18.6 mbpd in 1980.
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Sources: BP Stats 2009
Japan 5% S. Arabia 2%
Germany Russia 3% 6%
60 50
Regional product balance, 2020
North America Deficit: 43
MS: Jet kero: LPG: Naphtha: HSD: FO: Others: 24 19 19 15 5 14 15
Europe Deficit:
LPG: Naphtha: Jet kero: HSD: MS: FO:
Russia Deficit: 145
17 23 54 49 126 7 MS: Jetkero: Others: LPG: Naphtha: HSD: FO:
13
7 4 3 1 2 34 34
All figures in MMTPA
Surplus: 68
Surplus: 71
Surplus: 133 Net: (-) 12 Africa Deficit: 71
LPG: MS: Jetkero: HSD: Others: Naphtha: FO: 5 24 3 38 1 11 25
Net: (+) 25
Net: (+) 58 Middle East Deficit: 31
MS: Others: LPG: Naphtha: Jet/kero: HSD: FO: 26 5 85 44 19 17 23
Latin America Deficit: 50
Naphtha: MS: HSD: Others: LPG: FO: 7 10 32 1 5 25
Asia Pacific Deficit: 419
LPG: Naphtha: MS: Jet kero: HSD: Others: 40 56 107 26 86 28
Surplus: 188
Surplus: 30 Net: (-) 20
Surplus: 36 Net: (-) 35
Net: (+) 157
Surplus: 0 Net: (-) 419
• By 2020, world would be net product deficit @ 247 MMTPA
– 100 MMT surplus (LPG:49 & Fuel Oil:51) – 347 MMT deficit (Naphtha:15, MS:72, Jet/kero:88, HSD:147 & Others:25)
Source: EIA
Highlights
? International Trading of Petroleum Products
? The Indian Scenario ? India-The Future Refinery Hub for exports
India:Imports & Exports
US$ Billion
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 4 0 9 4 0.4 3 4 0.1 3 0.2 2 2 2 4 14 16 26
?
Crude Oil Import
68
76
Gross crude and petroleum products • Crude/product Imports : ~ 28% of total imports • Product Exports : ~ 8% of total exports
48
39
Product Export
28
26 14
18
11
18 7 9
13
15
6 3 2 2 2 1 2002-03 2003-04 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Product Import
Source: PNGRB
India - A Net Exporter of Products
Total Exports and Imports of Refined Petroleum Products in India
250
Thousand Barrels per Day
200
Net Imports: 220.45 Net Exports: 450.70
127.07
150
100
172.99
1.68
50
53.12
0
Motor Gasoline
60.42
2.56
32.86 14.96
Distillate Fuel Oil
0.04
Jet Fuel
18.66
Kerosene
14.4
Residual Fuel Oil
75.77
LPG
96.62
Others
Source: EIA (2008)
Imports
Exports
Refineries in India
BHATINDA (9.0) PANIPAT (12.0+3.0) MATHURA (8.0) BARAUNI (6.0) BINA (6.0) HALDIA (6.0+1.5) PARADEEP (15.0) Refineries IOC Group BPC group CHENNAI (9.5+ 1.7) KOCHI (7.5 + 2.0) NARIMANAM (1.0) HPC ONGC/MRPL RIL (Pvt.) ESSAR Total Capacity
No 10 3 MTPA 60.2 22.5 13.0 9.8 62.0 10.5 % of Ind 33.8 12.6 7.3 5.5 34.8 5.9
BONGAIGAON (2.35)
DIGBOI (0.65) NUMALIGARH (3.0)
GUWAHATI (1.0)
BARODA JAMNAGAR (13.7) (RIL 33.0 + 29.0) ESSAR 10.5+ 3.5) MUMBAI (BPC 12.0) (HPC 5.5+ 2.4)
VISAKH (7.5+0.8) TATIPAKA (0.08 + 0.08)
Existing IOC
Subsidiaries of IOC
MANGLORE (9.69 +5.31)
2
2 2 1
Others New / Additions
20
178.0
100
India : Product Demand & Refining Capacity
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 149 120
Gap between Refining Capacity & Product Demand
235
302
140 100
162
29
135
Refining Cap
Product Demand
Surplus refining capacity is expected to increase further by 2030 India will continue to be product surplus Import/Export requirement for crude/products to be quite substantial
Source: Draft XI Plan Demand Document
Govt. of India Policies
• Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM) dismantling effective 1.4.2002 • Gas Pricing • NELP • Policy on Refining • Auto Fuel Policy • Policy on Marketing of Petroleum Products • Gas Pipeline Policy • Petroleum Product Pipeline Policy • FDI Policy
Highlights
? International Trading of Petroleum Products
? The Indian Scenario ? India-The Future Refinery Hub for exports
Strategic Location
• Located in the major maritime route from Middle East • Established refineries on western coast
• Geographical advantage to serve western and eastern markets • Strong domestic demand provides an effective edge against fluctuations in exports
Cost Competitiveness
Cash Operating costs
• Cost competitiveness driven by lower manufacturing wages • Low capital and cash operating costs
• Access to large, technically skilled manufacturing base and workforce
Refinery Premcor Sunoco S-Oil SK Corp Zhenhai
Cash Operating Cost ($/ ton) 15.4 17.6 17.6 22.7 9.5
Sinopec
Indian Ref.
14.7
14.6
Source: A T Kearney
Refinery Configuration
• For Indian companies, the surplus capacity
comes at a time when the international
refining industry witnesses capacity crunch
• New capacity creation to address the current
refining challenges
• Above measures contribute in improving the
refining margins
Integration: Petrochemical Industry
• Major capacity additions post 1991
Aggregate Petrochemical Demand in ‘000T
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2005 2006 2007 2011-12
have significantly dependence
• Petroleum
reduced
import and Regions
Chemicals Petrochemicals Investment (PCPIR) being set up and RIL
• Major capacity additions done by IOC
Demand for polymers alone has the potential to reach 12.5 MMT by the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, growing at a CAGR of 18%.
Growing rapidly at 1.5 - 2.5 times the GDP growth rate
Infrastructure
• World’s 6th largest refiner with 3% of world oil consumption • Over 10,000 KM products pipeline network
• Excellent maritime infrastructure:
– POL facilities at 14 locations – 39 berths
– 2 barge jetties
– 8 SPMs
India as a refining hub competing with Singapore & Middle East
Singapore (MMTPA)
Refinery Capacity: 67 Refinery product surplus: 40 Product supplied to: Asia Pacific
India Middle East (MMTPA)
Refinery Capacity: 340 Refinery product surplus: 92 Product supplied to: Asia Pacific/Europe
Way Forward
• Leverage strategic advantage of coastal locations
– Consolidate with current/proposed location – Proposed PCPIRs / SEZs
• Cost competitiveness to position the product in target markets • Integration with petrochemicals, derivative and utility units, for maximizing value addition • Environmental norms and product quality specs to meet the export markets
Opportunity for India to emerge as a refining hub appears to be real and attractive
References
• PNGRB India • MOPNG • EIA
doc_382744665.pptx
PROJECT ON IMPORT AND EXPORT OF PETROLEUM PRODUCT
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
IMPORT & EXPORT
Indian Option
A Presentation By
Muzahid Khan (muzahidkhan123@gmail)
UNIVERSITY OF PETROLEUM & ENERGY STUDIES
Highlights
? International Trading of Petroleum Products
? The Indian Scenario ? India-The Future Refinery Hub for exports
Internationally traded Petroleum Products
? Motor Gasoline
? Jet Fuel ? Kerosene ? Distillate Fuel Oil ? Residual Fuel Oil ? Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Major Refining Hubs
Rotterdam
Refinery Capacity: 64 MMTPA Refinery product surplus: 62 MMTPA Product Export: Europe hinterland, US
US Gulf Coast (USGC)
Refinery Capacity: 385 MMTPA Refinery product surplus: 106 MMTPA Product Export: Far East, Asia, Europe
Middle East
Refinery Capacity: 340 MMTPA Refinery product surplus: 92 MMTPA Product Export: Far East, Asia, Europe
Singapore
Refinery Capacity: 67 MMTPA Refinery product surplus: 40 MMTPA Product Export: Asia Pacific
16000
Total Exports and Imports of Refined Petroleum Products
WORLD TOTAL
6414.38
14000
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2348.52 2000 0 4286.76 1319.55 Central and S. America 7349.02 Europe 2180.36
Thousand Barrels per Day
Imports: 21,083.59 Exports: 21,856.61
4051.9
3360.69 2351.2 350.66 Eurasia 867.54 Middle East 1158.55 877.55 Africa 6032.51 Asia & Oceania
North America Source: EIA (2008)
Imports
Exports
World Oil Refining
World Refining capacity 1.1.2008 World Refining capacity & thruput 1980-2008 (mbpd)
88.6
90
USA 20% Others 49% China 9%
Refinery capacity
80 70
Total: 88.6 mbpd (4431 MMTPA)
S. Korea 3%
India 3%
• World oil demand grown faster than refining capacity-better capacity utilization • World average refy capacity utilization moves around 75% (1980) to 87% (2008) • USA: Refining capacity declining, reached peak of 18.6 mbpd in 1980.
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Sources: BP Stats 2009
Japan 5% S. Arabia 2%
Germany Russia 3% 6%
60 50
Regional product balance, 2020
North America Deficit: 43
MS: Jet kero: LPG: Naphtha: HSD: FO: Others: 24 19 19 15 5 14 15
Europe Deficit:
LPG: Naphtha: Jet kero: HSD: MS: FO:
Russia Deficit: 145
17 23 54 49 126 7 MS: Jetkero: Others: LPG: Naphtha: HSD: FO:
13
7 4 3 1 2 34 34
All figures in MMTPA
Surplus: 68
Surplus: 71
Surplus: 133 Net: (-) 12 Africa Deficit: 71
LPG: MS: Jetkero: HSD: Others: Naphtha: FO: 5 24 3 38 1 11 25
Net: (+) 25
Net: (+) 58 Middle East Deficit: 31
MS: Others: LPG: Naphtha: Jet/kero: HSD: FO: 26 5 85 44 19 17 23
Latin America Deficit: 50
Naphtha: MS: HSD: Others: LPG: FO: 7 10 32 1 5 25
Asia Pacific Deficit: 419
LPG: Naphtha: MS: Jet kero: HSD: Others: 40 56 107 26 86 28
Surplus: 188
Surplus: 30 Net: (-) 20
Surplus: 36 Net: (-) 35
Net: (+) 157
Surplus: 0 Net: (-) 419
• By 2020, world would be net product deficit @ 247 MMTPA
– 100 MMT surplus (LPG:49 & Fuel Oil:51) – 347 MMT deficit (Naphtha:15, MS:72, Jet/kero:88, HSD:147 & Others:25)
Source: EIA
Highlights
? International Trading of Petroleum Products
? The Indian Scenario ? India-The Future Refinery Hub for exports
India:Imports & Exports
US$ Billion
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 4 0 9 4 0.4 3 4 0.1 3 0.2 2 2 2 4 14 16 26
?
Crude Oil Import
68
76
Gross crude and petroleum products • Crude/product Imports : ~ 28% of total imports • Product Exports : ~ 8% of total exports
48
39
Product Export
28
26 14
18
11
18 7 9
13
15
6 3 2 2 2 1 2002-03 2003-04 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Product Import
Source: PNGRB
India - A Net Exporter of Products
Total Exports and Imports of Refined Petroleum Products in India
250
Thousand Barrels per Day
200
Net Imports: 220.45 Net Exports: 450.70
127.07
150
100
172.99
1.68
50
53.12
0
Motor Gasoline
60.42
2.56
32.86 14.96
Distillate Fuel Oil
0.04
Jet Fuel
18.66
Kerosene
14.4
Residual Fuel Oil
75.77
LPG
96.62
Others
Source: EIA (2008)
Imports
Exports
Refineries in India
BHATINDA (9.0) PANIPAT (12.0+3.0) MATHURA (8.0) BARAUNI (6.0) BINA (6.0) HALDIA (6.0+1.5) PARADEEP (15.0) Refineries IOC Group BPC group CHENNAI (9.5+ 1.7) KOCHI (7.5 + 2.0) NARIMANAM (1.0) HPC ONGC/MRPL RIL (Pvt.) ESSAR Total Capacity
No 10 3 MTPA 60.2 22.5 13.0 9.8 62.0 10.5 % of Ind 33.8 12.6 7.3 5.5 34.8 5.9
BONGAIGAON (2.35)
DIGBOI (0.65) NUMALIGARH (3.0)
GUWAHATI (1.0)
BARODA JAMNAGAR (13.7) (RIL 33.0 + 29.0) ESSAR 10.5+ 3.5) MUMBAI (BPC 12.0) (HPC 5.5+ 2.4)
VISAKH (7.5+0.8) TATIPAKA (0.08 + 0.08)
Existing IOC
Subsidiaries of IOC
MANGLORE (9.69 +5.31)
2
2 2 1
Others New / Additions
20
178.0
100
India : Product Demand & Refining Capacity
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 149 120
Gap between Refining Capacity & Product Demand
235
302
140 100
162
29
135
Refining Cap
Product Demand
Surplus refining capacity is expected to increase further by 2030 India will continue to be product surplus Import/Export requirement for crude/products to be quite substantial
Source: Draft XI Plan Demand Document
Govt. of India Policies
• Administered Pricing Mechanism (APM) dismantling effective 1.4.2002 • Gas Pricing • NELP • Policy on Refining • Auto Fuel Policy • Policy on Marketing of Petroleum Products • Gas Pipeline Policy • Petroleum Product Pipeline Policy • FDI Policy
Highlights
? International Trading of Petroleum Products
? The Indian Scenario ? India-The Future Refinery Hub for exports
Strategic Location
• Located in the major maritime route from Middle East • Established refineries on western coast
• Geographical advantage to serve western and eastern markets • Strong domestic demand provides an effective edge against fluctuations in exports
Cost Competitiveness
Cash Operating costs
• Cost competitiveness driven by lower manufacturing wages • Low capital and cash operating costs
• Access to large, technically skilled manufacturing base and workforce
Refinery Premcor Sunoco S-Oil SK Corp Zhenhai
Cash Operating Cost ($/ ton) 15.4 17.6 17.6 22.7 9.5
Sinopec
Indian Ref.
14.7
14.6
Source: A T Kearney
Refinery Configuration
• For Indian companies, the surplus capacity
comes at a time when the international
refining industry witnesses capacity crunch
• New capacity creation to address the current
refining challenges
• Above measures contribute in improving the
refining margins
Integration: Petrochemical Industry
• Major capacity additions post 1991
Aggregate Petrochemical Demand in ‘000T
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2005 2006 2007 2011-12
have significantly dependence
• Petroleum
reduced
import and Regions
Chemicals Petrochemicals Investment (PCPIR) being set up and RIL
• Major capacity additions done by IOC
Demand for polymers alone has the potential to reach 12.5 MMT by the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, growing at a CAGR of 18%.
Growing rapidly at 1.5 - 2.5 times the GDP growth rate
Infrastructure
• World’s 6th largest refiner with 3% of world oil consumption • Over 10,000 KM products pipeline network
• Excellent maritime infrastructure:
– POL facilities at 14 locations – 39 berths
– 2 barge jetties
– 8 SPMs
India as a refining hub competing with Singapore & Middle East
Singapore (MMTPA)
Refinery Capacity: 67 Refinery product surplus: 40 Product supplied to: Asia Pacific
India Middle East (MMTPA)
Refinery Capacity: 340 Refinery product surplus: 92 Product supplied to: Asia Pacific/Europe
Way Forward
• Leverage strategic advantage of coastal locations
– Consolidate with current/proposed location – Proposed PCPIRs / SEZs
• Cost competitiveness to position the product in target markets • Integration with petrochemicals, derivative and utility units, for maximizing value addition • Environmental norms and product quality specs to meet the export markets
Opportunity for India to emerge as a refining hub appears to be real and attractive
References
• PNGRB India • MOPNG • EIA
doc_382744665.pptx