PROJECT ON HINDALCO

Description
PROJECT ON HINDALCO

Hindalco Industries - An Integrated ntegrated Report
08/06/2010

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HINDALCO INDUSTRIES
SCRIP ID – HINDALCO BSE CODE – 500440 INDUSTRY – ALUMINIUM FACE VALUE – 1.0 52 WEEKS HIGH – 188.20 52 WEEKS LOW – 68.40 BOOK VALUE – 147.50 EPS – 10.82

An industry leader in aluminum and copper, Hindalco Industries Limited, the metals
Flagship Company of the Aditya Birla Group is one of the world's largest aluminum rolling companies and one of the biggest producers of primary aluminum in Asia. At present Hindalco is metals powerhouse with high-end rolling capabilities and a global footprint in 12 countries. Its consolidated turnover of USD 15 billion (Rs. 600,128 million) places it in the Fortune 500 league. Recently Hindalco declared its FY10 results. It posted 8 fold net profit, up 709% due to improved earnings from Novelis and It proposed a dividend of 135% at Rs. 1.35 per share. Hindalco’s subsidiary Novels produces an estimated 19 percent of the world's flat-rolled aluminum products and is the number one producer in Europe, South America and Asia, and the second-largest in North America. Aditya Birla Minerals is located in Western Australia and Queensland, respectively. ABML, an S&P ASX 300 Index company, is the largest pure copper company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. And Hindalco Almex manufactures high-strength aluminium alloys for applications in the aerospace, sporting goods and surface transport industries.

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CapitalHeight view - Hindalco Industries strength is being the largest aluminum producer in India and possesses biggest copper smelting capacity plant in Asia. Hindalco is tripling its production in aluminum with the help of various expansion plans progressively going on specifically Hirakud’s and Brownfield and based near Bauxite mines ensures low cost of production. Its Aluminum Segment has reported improvement in margins due to higher LME prices & rise in product premiums while its expansion capacity will kick start in FY12 boosting its volumes in FY13. Novelis too has shown turnaround of its business on the basis of end of price ceiling contracts and reprising of margins in North America. Novelis, particularly, improved the revenue margin significantly for Hindalco. Its EBITDA run-rate of $200mn is expected to continue and company will increase its North American shipments of aluminum for cans by 3% increasing its Aluminum segment wise revenue. With that, Hindalco sits on a heavy cash flow in near future with many expansion plans going on its various business front at the same time. Its Aluminum segment reported 11% fall in revenue and consolidated sales too dropped by 8%. Undecided copper TcRc due to rigid supply of concentrate is continuing to depress its copper margins and company is in much need to seek copper mines and low cost of concentrate. On the expansion side, its Utkal aluminum, Mahan Aluminum and Aditya Aluminum plans are pushed back by 2 months and are expected to be completed by Q2-Q3FY12. Hirakud plant is further proposed to be expanded from 213ktpa to 360 ktpa which will require huge financing, burdening the liability side. Its Utkal Aluminum project cost is increased by Rs. 400mn, Mahan and Aditya aluminum cost is increased by Rs 10bn to Rs. 92bn as well. This signals a worrying cash outflow company is sitting on and it will increase the consolidated debt as well in the near future. This will be only eased in FY12 and there is no particular good news in earnings of the company for the time being. We recommend SELL on Hindalco.

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Strength & Opportunities
The standalone sales increased by 7% Rs. 19,536 cr for FY 10. The company has sustained a better cost management in FY10. In this FY10, Hindalco operated very much efficiently producing the highest metal ever complemented by its substantial cost savings. Hindalco has scaled up its Hirakud smelter and power expansion project to 360 KTPA from the earlier planned 213 KTPA. The captive power plant for the project too will be raised to 967.5 mw as against the proposed 467.5 mtpa. The copper business contributed Rs 12,575 cr in net sales, a rise of 13%. The EBIT for the copper business soared three times to Rs 1,003 cr. Aditya Birla Minerals, the Australian mining subsidiary of Hindalco, reported a net profit of Rs 246 cr against a loss Rs 304 cr last year. Hirakud’s Brownfield expansion is underway from 155 ktpa to 213 ktpa by 2012. Hindalco is the largest aluminum producer in india with a market share of 45% and is the only player that converts 67% of metal production into value added products like aluminum foils & packaging material. Hindalco has a copper smelting capacity of 500 kpta that is largest in Asia. The company has a future plan of tripling its aluminum production in next three years through Brownfield and Greenfield expansions in india.

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Weakness & Threats
Copper business lost Rs. 750 cr as well on lower by-product credit. Post repayment of bridge loan and low treasury corpus for acquisition of Novelis and expansion plans led other income of the company too declined by Rs. 377 cr to Rs. 260 cr. Hirakud’s Brownfield expansion from 155kpta to 213 kpta is pushed back by 8 months i.e. inQ4FY12. The company’s consolidated sales fell by 8% to Rs. 60, 722 cr due to weak global demand. Utkal alumina 1.5 mtpa aluminum refinery’s commissioning has been pushed back to Q2 FY12 presents a major challenge in its domestic business front. Commitment on Rs. 56b capex has been increased by 15pp to 81% taking its project cost marginally higher to Rs. 400 mn. a worrying cash outflow for Hindalco industries. Aluminum business, one of its core business revenue fell by 11% to Rs. 48,901 cr due to lower LME and less demand in world markets and eroded its aluminum business profit by around Rs. 750 cr. In short term Hirakud’s expansion is seen in FY11 while most of its project are completing in FY 12 & FY 14. Till then the company has a huge cash outflow to maintain.

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Company's dividend payouts over the last 5 years
Year 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Month Jun Jun Jun Mar Jul Dividend (%) 135 135 185 170 220

Key Financial Ratios (On Quarterly Standalone Basis)
Year End 31 Mar Sales(Rsm) EBITDA(Rsm) EBITDA (Margin %) Interest (Rsm) Depreciation (Rsm) Other Income(Rsm) PBT(Rsm) Tax(Rsm) Tax(%) PAT(Rsm) 4QFY09 37718.00 3144.00 8.30 821.00 1681.00 948.00 1590.00 407.00 25.60 1183.00 4QFY10 54434.00 8644.00 15.90 705.00 1684.00 777.00 7031.00 1286.00 18.30 5744.00 %YoY 44.30 174.90 +760 BPS -14.10 0.20 -18.10 342.20 216.20 -730BPS 385.50 FY09 181731.00 29894.00 16.40 3369.00 6452.00 6834.00 26907.00 6108.00 22.70 20798.00 FY10 197723.00 27099.00 13.70 2780.00 6672.00 2599.00 20246.00 4130.00 20.40 16116.00 %YoY 8.80 -9.30 -270 BPS -17.50 3.40 -62.00 -24.80 -32.40 -230BPS -22.50

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Quarterly Results
Particulars Gross Sales Other Operating Income Other Income Total Income Total Expenditure PBIDT Interest PBDT Depreciation Tax Deferred Tax Reported Profit After Tax Extra-ordinary Items Adjusted Profit After Extraordinary item EPS (Unit Curr.) EPS (Adj) (Unit Curr.) Calculated EPS (Unit Curr.) Calculated EPS (Adj) (Unit Curr.) Calculated EPS (Ann.) (Unit Curr.) Calculated EPS (Adj) (Ann.) (UCurr.) Book Value (Unit Curr.) Dividend (%) Mar 2010 5358.46 45.94 77.66 5482.06 4569.03 913.03 70.54 842.49 168.41 10.16 0.00 663.92 0.00 663.92 Dec 2009 5286.10 29.18 49.58 5364.86 4567.69 797.17 72.94 724.23 167.61 129.52 0.00 427.10 0.00 427.10 Sep 2009 4892.56 24.55 57.29 4974.40 4307.95 666.45 66.29 600.16 165.86 90.25 0.00 344.05 0.00 344.05 Jun 2009 3870.90 28.59 75.32 3974.81 3141.69 833.12 68.23 764.89 165.33 119.00 0.00 480.56 0.00 480.56

3.47 3.47 3.47 3.47 13.88 13.88 0.00 0.00

2.41 2.41 2.23 2.23 8.93 8.93 0.00 0.00

2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 8.09 8.09 0.00 0.00

2.83 2.83 2.83 2.83 11.30 11.30 0.00 0.00

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[email protected] Phone- (0731)4295950 Equity Reserve & Surplus Face Value Public Shareholding (No Of.Shares) Public Shareholding (% in Equity) Pledged/Encumbered - No. of Shares Pledged/Encumbered - % in Total Promoters Holding Pledged/Encumbered - % in Total Equity Non Encumbered - No. of Shares Non Encumbered - % in Total Promoters Holding Non Encumbered - % in Total Equity PBIDTM(%) PBDTM(%) PATM(%) 191.37 0.00 1.00 191.36 0.00 1.00 170.05 0.00 1.00 170.05 0.00 1.00

0.00 0.00

1134544349 59.29

920858710 54.16

917580678 53.97

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

613797188 100.00 32.08

613797188 100.00 36.10

613797188 100.00 36.10

17.04 15.72 12.39

15.08 13.70 8.08

13.62 12.27 7.03

21.52 19.76 12.41

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Peer Group Comparison
Partulcars 10-Mar Hindalco Sales PAT Equity OPM % NPM % RONW EPS CEPS PE PB BV Promoter & Promoter Grp Indian Foreign Public Institution FII DII Non Institution Bodies Corporate 19,536.28 1,915.63 191.37 10-Mar Nalco 5,158.00 832.60 644.31 10-Mar Parekh Aluminium 637.46 46.29 12.94 9-Mar Ess Dee Aluminium 401.48 66.46 27.83

Key Financial Ratios 16.43 9.81 1,001.01 10.82 13.50 ---29.37 16.14 129.22 12.92 17.87 ---17.28 7.26 14.85 35.77 55.24 -0.57 240.95 26.63 16.55 16.54 23.88 25.76 21.63 1.02 144.44

Ownership As on March 2010 61,37,97,188 61,37,97,188 -1,13,45,22,125 85,33,35,847 55,37,68,633 29,95,67,214 28,11,86,278 7,87,64,335 56,14,99,635 56,14,99,635 -8,28,09,993 6,12,44,391 2,63,92,215 3,48,52,176 2,15,65,602 1,64,51,986 43,87,400 43,87,400 -85,52,600 18,54,194 18,54,194 -66,98,406 9,89,097 1,65,31,881 1,65,31,881 -1,12,92,884 64,85,115 34,08,159 30,76,956 48,07,769 11,53,752

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Technical View
Fibonacci Retracement
% (Retracement) Level 75.00 153.94 61.80 133.31 50.00 114.88 48.00 111.75 38.20 96.44 25.00 75.81

Moving Average Levels Level
20 day’s 50 day’s 100 day’s 200 day’s

Daily
151.42 167.18 162.92 147.73

Weekly
161.46 140.22 106.88 130.87

Monthly Pivot
Script HINDALCO R4 287 R3 241 R2 194 R1 163 P 147 S1 116 S2 100 S3 54 S4 7

Key Levels Resistance – 140.50, 149.00, 156.00 Support – 125.50, 115.00, 105.75

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Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

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