Project on Costs and Benefits

Description
In production, research, retail, and accounting, a cost is the value of money that has been used up to produce something, and hence is not available for use anymore. In business, the cost may be one of acquisition, in which case the amount of money expended to acquire it is counted as cost.

Evaluation of Expected Project Costs and Benefits
Methodology and Assumptions In order to weigh the expected project benefits versus the costs, a rigorous technical evaluation of the stream of monetized potential user benefits was compared against initial construction cost estimates and long-term operation and maintenance cost estimates. The benefit and cost comparison was produced for construction of the entire 200-mile statewide corridor across Missouri because the I-70 Truck-Only Lanes Project seeking TIGER Grant funding represents an initial section of an overall corridor wide implementation of truck-only lanes. It is recognized that the full benefits of a truck-only lanes facility would be realized by ultimate completion of the statewide corridor. Project Costs MoDOT has estimated the total project cost for construction of the entire 200-mile statewide corridor at $3.5 billion in 2009 dollars. The estimated cost, based upon the information from the I-70 SEIS, is broken down into 28 percent right-of way ($980 million), 57 percent roadway construction costs ($2 billion) and 15 percent bridge construction costs ($525 million). The benefit-cost analysis performed for this project assumed that purchased right-of-way would maintain 100 percent of its value over the life of the project, bridges would maintain 75 percent of their value, and the roadway would not have any remaining value at the end of the life-cycle in 2050. These assumptions resulted in a residual value calculation of the I-70 truck-only lanes investment of $1.4 billion in 2050 (in 2009 dollars). Additionally, MoDOT has estimated that ongoing maintenance and operations cost for the statewide project would be approximately $13 million per year. Project Benefits Data used in the calculation of estimated project benefits over the life cycle of the 30-year project were entirely derived from previous or updated traffic analysis, travel demand modeling and MoDOT crash record databases used in the I-70 Second Tier and SEIS environmental NEPA studies. All forecasted average daily traffic (ADT) and vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) data were derived from the updated I-70 Statewide Travel Demand Model utilized in the I-70 Second Tier Environmental Studies. Vehicle-hours traveled (VHT) were derived from the elimination of delay in the urban areas of Kansas City, Columbia and St. Louis. “Existing” traffic and crash data used in calculations were updated with the most recent ADT and crash data available from MoDOT databases. All calculations of the 30-year streams of benefits were discounted at the federally accepted discount rate of seven percent. ? Travel Time Savings - Travel time savings over the improved I-70 Corridor were estimated by eliminating forecasted delays in urban areas associated with congestion, which resulted in a conservative value of an average 20-minute reduction for each vehicle (both truck and passenger vehicles) traveling the full length of the corridor. Although each vehicle likely does not traverse the full 200-miles of the I-70 Corridor, the assumption was made that on average, each vehicle traveling a significant distance would receive approximately 20-minutes in travel time savings due to the elimination of delays. Utilizing USDOT guidance on the Valuation of Travel Time in Economic Analysis, values of travel time were inflated to 2009 dollars and were estimated to be

$20.17 an hour for each “all-purpose” automobile (a weighted average of business automobile and passenger automobile travelers). For commercial trucks traveling the I70 Corridor, the value of travel time was estimated to be $23.40 an hour. Discounted (Net Present Value) travel time savings for an improved I-70 Corridor with truck-only lanes between 2020 and 2050 were estimated to be $3.1 billion. ? Vehicle Operating Cost Savings - Vehicle operating cost savings for automobiles were estimated at $0.17 per mile (2009 dollars) utilizing Triple A (AAA) guidance, Estimated Costs to Operate Passenger Vehicles, which excluded insurance and registration costs and included fuel costs. Minnesota DOT research, Per-Mile Costs of Operating Trucks and Automobiles, was utilized to develop the $0.60 cost per mile (2009 dollars, inflated) to operate commercial trucks. These per-mile operating costs were applied to the I-70 VMT model output to obtain vehicle-operating costs savings. Several adjustments were made to estimated VMT, including a conservative assumption that 30 percent of all VMT in the I-70 Corridor is from commercial trucks. It was also assumed that 35 percent of trucks would be effectively removed from the roadway due to the future anticipated use of longer-combination vehicles on I-70 through Missouri that will allow the hauling of greater loads (multiple combinations) with one tractor trailer. As a result of these adjustments, discounted vehicle operating cost savings between 2020 and 2050 were estimated to be -$740 million, meaning that no savings are expected to be realized. Rather, an overall net cost to users is expected due to an expected increase in VMT over the I-70 Corridor which results from more vehicles being attracted to the roadway due to excess capacity and otherwise generally safe travel conditions in the corridor. Crash Savings - Crash savings were estimated by utilizing research and analyses completed for the I-70 Second Tier Environmental Studies that determined that safety enhancements and design upgrades would result in an overall crash rate reduction of approximately 20 percent. The most recent available MoDOT crash database data was also analyzed to determine if past crash incidence and severity trends were still valid. FHWA guidance on the Value of Statistical Lives updated in 2009 was consulted to determine the appropriate values to apply to each analyzed category of crash severity. Those crash severity categories and values included Property-Damage Only ($4,100), Minor Injury ($93,000), Major Injury ($345,000), and Fatal ($6 million) crashes. The result of the analysis was that between 2020 and 2050, improving the I-70 Corridor with truck-only lanes would result in a discounted net present value crash savings of $1.6 billion. This estimate is considered conservative due to the exclusion of potential crash reduction benefits resulting from the physical separation of large trucks and passenger vehicles and the addition of a concrete median barrier for opposing truck traffic. The impact these design features may have on crash reduction could not be quantified due to the lack of comparable existing roadway facilities and empirical evidence. However, it is a reasonable assumption that the separation of passenger cars and large trucks would have a significant positive impact on the reduction in the number and severity of crashes.

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I-70 TRUCK-ONLY LANES USER BENEFITS SUMMARY
Total Construction Cost (All Years) Annual Maintenance Costs $3,500,000,000 $13,007,299

RESIDUAL CALCULATIONS Right-of-Way Bridge Roadway Total Cost Breakdown $982,000,000 $525,000,000 $1,993,000,000 $3,500,000,000 Residual % 100% 75% 0% Residual Amount $982,000,000 $393,750,000 $0 $1,375,750,000

TRAVEL TIME SAVINGS CALCULATIONS
VHT Savings (Hours per VHT Savings (Hours per Day) Year) Auto-All Purpose $ Savings (Year) Auto-Business $ Savings (Year) Truck $ Savings (Year) Total $ Savings (Year)

Travel Time Savings (2020) Travel Time Savings (2050) Auto - All Purpose Trips % Commercial Truck Trip % All Purpose Auto Value of Time Commercial Truck Value of Time

23,472 45,115 70% 30% $20.17 $23.40

8,567,212 $120,960,460 $0 $60,141,825 $181,102,286 16,466,794 $232,494,660 $0 $115,596,892 $348,091,551 Source: I-70 2nd Tier Studies Traffic Analysis Source: I-70 2nd Tier Studies Traffic Analysis Source: USDOT guidance on Valuation of Travel Time in Economic Analysis, updated from 2000$ to 2008$ Source: USDOT guidance on Valuation of Travel Time in Economic Analysis, updated from 2000$ to 2008$

VEHICLE OPERATING COST SAVINGS CALCULATIONS VMT Savings (Miles per Day) Vehicle Operating Cost Savings (2020) -418,988 Vehicle Operating Cost Savings (2050) -1,305,224 Truck Percentage 30% Auto Percentage 70% LCV Adjustment 65% VOC-Autos $0.17 VOC-Trucks $0.60

VMT Savings (Miles per Year) -152,930,620 -476,406,740

Auto $ Savings (Year) -$18,042,449 -$56,205,514

Truck $ Savings (Year) -$17,982,347 -$56,018,287

Total $ Savings (Year) -$36,024,796 -$112,223,801

Assumes negative 35% adjustment in number of trucks traveling due to use of LCVs Source: AAA 2009$ Estimated costs to operate passenger vehicles, excludes insurance, registration costs, assumes fuel costs included Source: AAA 2009$ Per-Mile Costs of Operating Trucks and Automobiles, MNDOT

CRASH COST SAVINGS CALCULATIONS PDO Crashes Saved (Year) Accident Cost Savings (2020) Accident Cost Savings (2050) PDO Crash Value Minor Injury Crash Value Major Injury Crash Value Fatal Accident Value 484 683 $4,100 $93,000 $345,000 $6,000,000 Minor Injury Accidents Major Injury Crashes Fatal Accidents Saved (Year) Saved (Year) Saved (Year) Total Accidents Saved (Year) Total PDO $ Savings (Year) $1,982,873 $2,798,952 Total Minor Total Major Injury $ Injury $ Savings Savings (Year) (Year) $11,431,449 $16,502,740 $9,584,782.17 $13,836,843.70 Total Fatal $ Savings (Year) $77,699,656 $120,530,038 Total $ Savings (Year) $100,698,760 $153,668,574

123 28 13 647 177 40 20 920 MoDOT Guidance, updated to 2009$ FHWA Guidance on Value of Statistical Life, Moderate Severity of Injury Crash FHWA Guidance on Value of Statistical Life, Severe Severity of Injury Crash FHWA Guidance on Value of Statistical Life, Fatal Severity of Crash

PLEASE NOTE: 1) Yellow cells denote input cells 2) Cells with red fonts denote fixed values and should not be modified or altered 3) Cells with black bold fonts are values that are transferred to the Benefit-Cost Spreadsheet

TRAVEL EFFICIENCY FEASIBILITY
I-70 Truck-Only Lanes - 200 Mile Section
Capital 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Total Discounted Total $3,500,000,000 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13 007 299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $390,218,978 $161,408,112 Maintenance Total Costs $3,500,000,000 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13 007 299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 $13,007,299 ($1,362,742,701) $2,514,468,978 $3,480,679,801 7.00% $407,672,919 8.03% 1.12 Time Savings $181,102,286 $185,089,983 $189,165,486 $193,330,728 $197,587,684 $201,938,375 $206,384,863 $210,929,259 $215,573,718 $220,320,443 $225,171,687 $230,129,751 $235,196,986 $240,375,797 $245,668,640 $251,078,027 $256,606,523 $262,256,751 $268,031,392 $273,933,185 $279,964,930 $286,129,488 $292,429,783 $298,868,805 $305,449,608 $312,175,314 $319,049,114 $319 049 114 $326,074,268 $333,254,109 $340,592,043 $348,091,551 $7,931,950,576 $3,064,648,318 VOC Savings ($36,024,796) ($37,415,450) ($38,859,788) ($40,359,880) ($41,917,881) ($43,536,024) ($45,216,633) ($46,962,117) ($48,774,981) ($50,657,827) ($52,613,356) ($54,644,374) ($56,753,795) ($58,944,645) ($61,220,067) ($63,583,327) ($66,037,815) ($68,587,054) ($71,234,699) ($73,984,551) ($76,840,555) ($79,806,808) ($82,887,566) ($86,087,250) ($89,410,451) ($92,861,936) ($96,446,657) ($96 446 657) ($100,169,759) ($104,036,582) ($108,052,676) ($112,223,801) ($2,086,153,101) ($740,029,075) Crash Savings $100,698,760 $102,127,528 $103,576,569 $105,046,169 $106,536,620 $108,048,219 $109,581,265 $111,136,063 $112,712,921 $114,312,153 $115,934,075 $117,579,010 $119,247,285 $120,939,229 $122,655,180 $124,395,478 $126,160,468 $127,950,500 $129,765,931 $131,607,119 $133,474,432 $135,368,239 $137,288,916 $139,236,845 $141,212,413 $143,216,010 $145,248,036 $145 248 036 $147,308,893 $149,398,991 $151,518,744 $153,668,574 $3,886,950,637 $1,563,733,477 Total Benefits $245,776,250 $249,802,062 $253,882,267 $258,017,016 $262,206,424 $266,450,569 $270,749,496 $275,103,205 $279,511,658 $283,974,769 $288,492,406 $293,064,387 $297,690,476 $302,370,381 $307,103,753 $311,890,177 $316,729,175 $321,620,198 $326,562,624 $331,555,753 $336,598,807 $341,690,919 $346,831,133 $352,018,400 $357,251,570 $362,529,389 $367,850,492 $367 850 492 $373,213,402 $378,616,517 $384,058,112 $389,536,324 $9,732,748,112 $3,888,352,719 Net Benefits ($3,254,223,750) $236,794,762 $240,874,968 $245,009,717 $249,199,124 $253,443,270 $257,742,197 $262,095,906 $266,504,359 $270,967,470 $275,485,107 $280,057,087 $284,683,176 $289,363,082 $294,096,454 $298,882,878 $303,721,876 $308,612,899 $313,555,324 $318,548,454 $323,591,508 $328,683,620 $333,823,834 $339,011,101 $344,244,271 $349,522,089 $354,843,193 $354 843 193 $360,206,103 $365,609,218 $371,050,812 $1,752,279,025 $7,218,279,134 $407,672,919

($1,375,750,000) $2,124,250,000 $2,214,252,336 Discount Rate Net Present Value Internal Rate of Return Benefit/Cost Ratio



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