Post Elections Issue Wrap
By: Amit Bhushan Date: 16th Feb. 2017
With the curtains on the electoral semi-finals likely to come over soon, the political temperatures are likely to cool off a bit and allow ‘real’ trouble areas/geographies as well as real issue to surface. It may be a good time to reflect back on the achievements of stance of the ‘Change in polity’ based approach of ‘social media/alternate politics’. What we have is that though Secular Centrist have a majority but no one Neta or party has the command to lead. In fact the combination with all its Netas and parties can manage only meager majority stumbling on almost every front and unable to take any decisive course of action. Although it doesn’t stop them from proclaiming victory as well as revival and which allows the journos in the commercial news media to party as well on this achievement. It is social media/alternate politics that sets agenda for elections and is now taken up by the media and all parties/Netas are expected to respond to these or else… and social media/alternate politics now even makes (excellent) forecast of results. The Khidchidi forecast for the largest state has almost come true (and this will become more obvious to everyone soon), so the Netas should do well to take these forecasts a bit more seriously or else it would be Khidchidi for most governments whether in states or at the Center (in future elections) and halwa of the Netas. It would be interesting to see if the Netas want to break out or maintain such a situation although it is obvious that the Netas may just want to talk their way out rather work their way out of it. The public obviously keeps returning to its set patterns, while Netas continue to remain in denial of the ‘Game’. Some people like ‘Yours’ Truly’ (and not the commercial news media) have decided to make it apparent even though the commercial news media will do everything in its power to maintain the level of ignorance & denial. The analysis (relying on economics & related politics much more than others) however may not be reflective of concerns of special interest (like women) or special sections like Handicapped etc. many of which again get swayed by political sloganeering like earlier religion/caste factors. The issues of these sections however may not be able to override or swing majority issues for present, and parties may do well to look into these as well. The assumptions presume Business as Usual for most other sectors, without serious deterioration or corruption issues or normal ongoing reforms, which have already been in public discussions.
The commercial news media to its credit, has covered the troubled geographies well with adequate level of sensitivity. It may also be ok around external security related coverage although not sure about all the hype. However, commercial news media has normally failed to clearly identify ‘clincher issues’ which the political Netas should & must focus upon for their own benefits. Then there may be doubts when generic & specific issues mix up with implications on trouble spots as well say something like Triple Talaq or General Ban on pink mutton et al. Nevertheless, this article is about generic issues which are confused by the commercial news media and which may not be controversial at all apart from political Netas wanting to complicate and confuse them for political reasons, and which are most likely to have an impact on electoral prospects for future elections. Geo-specific or external affairs/security are not discussed in part due to limited appreciation of these (by the author), although concerns related to terrorism remain high on public radar. The issues enumerated are basis clear identification that Job creation is number issue, as has come forth in the electoral hustling and hence the possible drivers for the same needs to be sorted out as a political immediacy or else we shall continue to witness jobless growth and ensuing political tumult. While there is no particular order of importance as these drivers may have varied impact on different regions/states, however Netas intransigence around these will be seen as reluctance and allow their opposition to score brownie points with an electoral impact.
1. The Payments system could be number driver with push for cash-less including Direct benefit transfers by government. Enough has already been said in these articles on Cash-less especially its importance to be pushed into businesses and institutional segment payments and incentivization for cash-less receipt by small businesses (Merchant fees). The government needs to keep pushing Direct benefits transfers including Aadhar based mechanism and this can include payment of all salaries, pensions to staff and retirees, linking EPF to Aadhar to have one common account for all individuals, Loans linked to Aadhar etc. Having a unique identity for all types of organized as well as unorganized businesses (as well as directors whether local or foreign) on the Back of Aadhar would ensure expansion of Aadhar based payment mechanisms further. The payments bodies should engage actively with states, municipal and local government as well as private business and institutional segments to expand cash-less.
2. Expansion of much neglected water-ways including near coast, neighbourhood connectivity etc. There can be schemes to run small ports for Goods, passengers & luxury and for deep sea fishing as well as foreign transportation with adequate support from relevant authorities. The coast guard role could be expanded to river based water-ways as well to maintain discipline on waters by the captains of the vessels, enforcing norms/discipline. Such a move is likely to impact cost of transport, travel and create new jobs in logistics, vessel manufacturing etc.
3. Delivery of better irrigation facilities (mix of micro as well as macro) including support for low water crops could be another area. This may include better support and technology solutions for rural micro & small processing units and alternate production outputs like Dairy, Honey etc. multi-cropping and intensive farming, to make better use of farm labour with mechanisms to support market access. This area is marred with huge corruption and pathetic results including negative politics, that has ensured that whatever little progress is made, is limited to a few who would try to take advantage of the situation of the back of political support with netas and parties playing to lobbies of producers and consumers, rather than orderly development of markets, balancing interests along with fair competition. Example of water distribution rules are shining examples at high level where political competition is about cornering water rights at the level of upper riparian state, but it also percolates to lower level with individual Kisaans behaving in self-serving manner to the detriment of many with the Netas having little guts or power to convince and satisfy larger constituency in such situations.
4. Expansion of local language based internet services. Expansion of telecom & data infra might be the key including cost based on data load timings. Already the information services in local languages are rhyming with the masses even though content quality is abysmal and services may not be very engaging. E-commerce and education & entertainment may be next sectors followed up by games. Rising maturity of small local internet companies might allow such services to expand at later stage amongst similar geographies through collaboration. Lot’s of creative talent can be absorbed including those working in AV sector, content writers, translators etc. while companies would be engage more with the ‘bottom of the pyramid’. In any case many Food and Consumer goods companies report that their sales is much more in non-metros then in the metros, although their adverts might not reflect the same. This often credited to aspiring class of the non-metros coming to their fold. With companies like Patanjali beating them hollow in a short time should be alarm enough to engage with the non-metro base better including assessment about the likes and dislikes of the so christened aspiring sections. Convergence of data, communications and Tele/radio could be issues in need of being sorted out, besides reach.
All in all Cash-less, Digital, better irrigation (including micro and small projects) and Water-ways should be targeted for visible deliveries in short term 2-5 years as they have potential to transform and deliver jobs and income growth. Most of these above need to be policy driven rather than public investment driven apart from irrigation & some of the waterways related infrastructure in all probability. These sectors can also be ramped up much faster based on domestic factors as well as global capital support that they can attract.
5. Food processing is other huge job creation sector that has remained neglected with loads of negative political opportunitism (explained alongside irrigation in point 3 above). A move to encourage Restaurant sections to benefit from GST credit set off by using semi-processed, frozen and fully processed food would ensure a rise in demand for food processing from institutional segments. Purees, pastes, Juices, Frozen and Semi-processed may be some of the clear winners in the short term and this will ensure that mechanisms to develop market by SMEs in the segment, receive a fillip. The benefits will be manifold including lower wastage, better delivered food quality, better usage and investments in the cold chains and possibly lower prices in the longer run. This would ensure that the negative tax incentives whereby processed foods were costlier to consumers while’ fresh food to fork’ became cheaper option. Once people see rise of processed and develop a taste for the same, demand shall rise further.
6. Continued deepening on low cost clean energy options for people like CNG including adequate measures to secure its supplies. This should be combined to work with expansion of infra for auto-fuel distribution as well as kitchen fuels besides meeting industrial requirements. Cost of electricity, reach and quality of supplies could be another area. This area might have much greater ramifications and not sure if it is receiving adequate impetus.
7. Reforming banks especially policy drives management of NPAs with fair set of access to credit for all rather than lopsided credit, and this is likely to remain a potboiler as no borrower would claim to be a scamster and everyone has his own project as no 1 priority. We have importance to fund airlines (from various promoter groups) with reliance on huge imports but not local language internet or railways etc. including ignorance for Aircraft maintenance facilities. Similar food outlets with foreign themes score rather than local biryani joints for the creditors. There might be reforms expectation but political netas have kept hand-off approach so far.
8. Judiciary including need to reform the lower layers in particular with its adequate expansion, much more regularity for alternate solutions like Lok Adalats, Ombudsman (including for Telecom/Data services, one for government services as well such as Railways & not to forget E-commerce/Fintech service providers), deter Consumer Redressals and Arbitration; is likely to continue to rise in importance. In any case important Judgement are now becoming public discussions and forcing better Action taken compliance at Apex court level, but the mechanisms needs further bolstering on the back of public support for the same. With ‘thenga’ shown to law enforcement authorities and Judiciary and self-inflicted damage at the hands of police and investigative institutions at the hands of servile officers, this area needs wide ranging reforms, although the Netas may prefer to have only selected reforms.
9. Last though not be as high (as others) on priority might be continued regional economic initiatives to ensure market access, connectivity & better political relations especially for the so called BBIN/SAARC or BIMSTECH or IOR including East African as well as nations across Arabian Sea with BBIN or BBINS occupying greater public focus. The Transportation equipment and Engineering projects, shipping and Railways and other manufactures should have a market for different kinds of entrepreneurs, small to big. India’s cultural proclivity should help it rise to capitalize upon the opportunities in the regions and also ensure somewhat better energy security as well. It might be important to lead development of some of these markets rather than just participating in integration opportunities led by someone else rather than strategic engagement with defined markets for a long-term sustainable relationship.
Last is ever rising expectations on improving social sectors like Education and Health care for improved outcomes and lowering of cost on the back of technology. Then come infra sector like Electricity supply to industry and households, Telecom and roads & not to forget water and sanitation et al. Most of the above proposals would help improve quality of life, reduce wastage or cut costs, improve domestic productivity with minimal impact on India’s international competitiveness, and above all create a large number of high quality jobs. With emergence of tools like GST which curtails policy opportunism by states to the detriment of individual businesses, what is now expected is a supportive stance by the state and central netas rather than negative interventions of yore. Since a cross-sections is struggling on how to regulate things like Alcoholism, so the proposals to open up Betting or Gaming industry etc. are not included as of yet. The political Netas may continue to engage with social institutions/NGOs as well as Think tanks to raise donations in Cash-less way to pursue & grow their political ideology/cause and they might be helped by benefits to corporates under CSR as well as political donations being free of taxes and so they have a route instead of resorting to rampant goodaism, hafta, mis-allocation of resources and naked corruption. Specific corruption issues and gross inadequacy like in social sectors like in the sports bodies etc. will continue to have their impact. While some of the Netas glues to the past, would continue to rake in Mandir or Caste issues, however not being able to address the top concerns adequately in a comprehensive manner will limit influence much more seriously, than any time previous. Hopefully the commercial news media would now display better appreciation of public concerns rather than naked rhetoric telecast of Neta speak becoming anchor’s view about public issues/opinion. If that were the case than these articles’ forecast would not have come true. Let’s see the ‘Game’ evolve further…