Political Activism and Electoral Dividends
Date: 29th Dec. 2019 By: Amit Bhushan
With the current dose of political activism, the opposition may have been able to establish and may be able to communicate (which is much more important) its ‘ground presence’. The smaller parties and Netas (in opposition) may just become ‘fodder stock’ in their attempt to steal the limelight of such action. This is because a ‘common line’ is the stepping stone for a common Neta and it is this Neta’s party which stands to gain relatively more. The government action might have been to soothe ruffled feathers of its so called ‘majoritarian supporters’, however it in turned propelled a debate between secular/liberal vs (what’s perceived to be/described as a) majority. It is this line to which its parent has mostly lost although then subsequently tends to disgorge into a caste based division. This is then ‘used’ by seasoned Netas to carve out an assembly of caste and religion to their own advantage to herald to power, an age old trick known to all except for the ‘so called Chanakyas of the day’. Or it may be that these Chanakyas are too aware of, but just want to stick to political lines rather than really looking to challenge the current political situation. But nevertheless the politics of sort continues and unlikely to change till some initiative by ‘Game’ Netas takes shape. Hopefully one will have to wait for the Bengal elections or may be till the UP elections for the same. This is perhaps because both the ruling party and large opposition parties don’t want to acknowledge/give prominence to economic issues and reaction of newbie and smaller parties need to be watched out for, if they are any different.
The biggest challenge for the Netas is political performance against the expectations that they have set up, about which even the commercial news media chooses to remain ‘electorally neutral’. What’s implied here is that such ‘performance vs expectation comparison’ is almost never done by the media during elections and this task is conveniently left to the so called ‘opposition Netas’. Then discussion of the performance of a party in neighboring state (to one going to elections) is also a strict no-no. The electoral silence of the Netas in opposition in various states during electoral rounds in some other states is almost deafening and the commercial news media may want to maintain it the same way (as it has done in the past). This is even while the perceived voting patterns may have changed (why ‘perceived pattern’ is because some of the media is now trying to explain economics behind voting while some other would stick to old caste and religion based lines. Actual voting may perhaps been always dictated by this ‘new analogy’). So the present opposition may have found a panacea in current situation where-in ‘over the top (i.e. tele and news media)’, it would assemble under a common line, while ‘below the line (electoral canvassing by its Netas)’ speeches would be about local issues (read jobs, pathetic rural/agri returns, schooling/skilling, water/electricity/sanitation woes etc.). The actual cause for change remains economic issues, with electoral political lines merely serving as a group identity for political parties with Maharastra rounds even defying the same and becoming a round of survival and upmanship though its importance in politics cannot be negated.
The response by the ruling party seems to be a big gaffe. While it tends to counter the unity in opposition, however it does little to highlight the failure of performance by the opposition in states which are ruled by them. Of course by avoiding such discussions, it tends to keep pressures away from state leaders under its rule, however with a string of losses there may be a need to wisen up. While it has been desperately trying to counter the ‘unifying line’, it has failed to counter its vote catching below the line campaign. So the attempt by the ruling party is to merely keep the opposition divided rather than to actually challenge them. Even the vice versa about the opposition parties may be true as they too have mainly responded to ‘political line’ of the ruling party, rather than mounting any economic counter offensive by highlighting failures in states in a big way and this may be true even after having won a few states. The fact is highlighted as the much talked about ‘food processing’ related investments that could have an impact on some of the agri/rural sector woes remain almost null, in states ruled by which ever party. And this is despite it is the rural areas which seem to be in active ‘political change’ mode and this remains so even in states current being ruled by the opposition. One can easily gaze this by changed voting patterns in states as well as in immediate aftermath in national elections. This remains a cause of political tumult which keeps throwing surprises for the party/coalition in power and Netas on all sides need to watch for. Let the ‘Game’ evolve…..