MARKET IS AGAIN ON BULL RUN AFTER A HALT

NIFTY FUTURE

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK​

Nifty future continue to remain under pressure after expiry of November month contracts as investors is waiting for some sight of relief from RBI monetary policy. We hardly saw any relevant buying interest in F&O segment. During this period, FIIs formed good amount of short positions in index and stock futures along with decent longs in index put options.

The first week of December has been one of the biggest weekly fall for our markets in the current calendar year. During the week, there were two occasions when US bourses clocked immense single day gains; but, quite surprisingly, our markets shrugged of these optimistic cues and remained under pressure on the following days. Eventually, the Nifty went on to close almost at the lowest point of the week.

Nifty Rollovers is at 63.28% which is below its 3 month average of 68.61% and in terms of open interest as well; suggesting decent amount of positions have been lightened up ahead of the upcoming events like RBI policy, US Fed meet and more importantly, Gujarat poll results. FIIs too refrained from rolling their positions; resulting into a decline in their index futures open interest by 37% series on series. However, they rolled over good amount of their short positions formed in stock futures last series.

The Union government on 5th of December released the “Mid-Term Review of Foreign Trade Policy” (2015-20) to focus on strategies to encourage exports. According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, the revised FTP focuses on the goal of exploring new markets and new products as well as on increasing India’s share in the traditional markets and products.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

Nifty future is currently trading at very crucial levels near trend line and 200 days moving average support level on daily chart, in last week or so market went down sharply to test the support levels, If we closely observe Nifty future chart 10100 was one of the strong support level, which market has breached on 6th of Dec.

But the question raises Nifty future has breached the support level due to concerns on RBI monetary policy. If we see from another angle it might be false breakout and market can bounce back, catching the bears on the wrong foot as market has to breach trend line and 200 days moving average support level.

Fundamentals are strong for Indian market as back to back reforms and rating from Baa3 to Baa2 upgrade by Moody’s help Indian market to stay strong and gain momentum.

Technically, Nifty future may move up above the levels of 10100 and it could test the levels of 10200 & 10350 in the Dec month expiry. Technical stop loss should be at 9970.

NIFTY FUTURE [/b] DAILY CHART[/b]​

Pivots Points Supports and Resistance of Nifty Future​

Resistance 1-10187 Support 1-10051

Resistance 2- 10227 Support 2-9962

Resistance 3- 10315 Support 3-9874

If u want to become stock trader work with us. For more information visit our site www.marketmagnify.com or missed call 7879881122.

 

[Dhruv Bindhani]

NIFTY FUTURE

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK

Nifty future continue to remain under pressure after expiry of November month contracts as investors is waiting for some sight of relief from RBI monetary policy. We hardly saw any relevant buying interest in F&O segment. During this period, FIIs formed good amount of short positions in index and stock futures along with decent longs in index put options.

The first week of December has been one of the biggest weekly fall for our markets in the current calendar year. During the week, there were two occasions when US bourses clocked immense single day gains; but, quite surprisingly, our markets shrugged of these optimistic cues and remained under pressure on the following days. Eventually, the Nifty went on to close almost at the lowest point of the week.

Nifty Rollovers is at 63.28% which is below its 3 month average of 68.61% and in terms of open interest as well; suggesting decent amount of positions have been lightened up ahead of the upcoming events like RBI policy, US Fed meet and more importantly, Gujarat poll results. FIIs too refrained from rolling their positions; resulting into a decline in their index futures open interest by 37% series on series. However, they rolled over good amount of their short positions formed in stock futures last series.

The Union government on 5th of December released the “Mid-Term Review of Foreign Trade Policy” (2015-20) to focus on strategies to encourage exports. According to the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, the revised FTP focuses on the goal of exploring new markets and new products as well as on increasing India’s share in the traditional markets and products.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Nifty future is currently trading at very crucial levels near trend line and 200 days moving average support level on daily chart, in last week or so market went down sharply to test the support levels, If we closely observe Nifty future chart 10100 was one of the strong support level, which market has breached on 6th of Dec.

But the question raises Nifty future has breached the support level due to concerns on RBI monetary policy. If we see from another angle it might be false breakout and market can bounce back, catching the bears on the wrong foot as market has to breach trend line and 200 days moving average support level.

Fundamentals are strong for Indian market as back to back reforms and rating from Baa3 to Baa2 upgrade by Moody’s help Indian market to stay strong and gain momentum.

Technically, Nifty future may move up above the levels of 10100 and it could test the levels of 10200 & 10350 in the Dec month expiry. Technical stop loss should be at 9970.

NIFTY FUTURE [/b] DAILY CHART[/b]



Pivots Points Supports and Resistance of Nifty Future

Resistance 1-10187 Support 1-10051

Resistance 2- 10227 Support 2-9962

Resistance 3- 10315 Support 3-9874

If u want to become stock trader work with us. For more information visit our site www.marketmagnify.com or missed call 7879881122.

The article from December 7, 2017, provides a technical and fundamental outlook for Nifty Future, indicating pressure on the market despite some positive cues. It suggests a cautious approach but also identifies a potential bounce back.

Here's a detailed breakdown of the article's points, along with market context from that period:

Fundamental Outlook:

• Nifty Future Under Pressure: The Nifty Future was facing pressure after the November contract expiry, with investors awaiting relief from the RBI monetary policy.
• Lack of F&O Buying Interest: There was little buying interest in the Futures & Options (F&O) segment.
• FIIs Short Positions: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) had built significant short positions in index and stock futures, alongside long positions in index put options, indicating a bearish stance.
• Market Fall in Early December: The first week of December 2017 saw one of the biggest weekly falls for the Indian markets in that calendar year. This happened despite positive cues from US bourses, which India seemed to shrug off.
• Rollovers Below Average: Nifty rollovers were at 63.28%, below the 3-month average of 68.61%, suggesting positions were lightened ahead of key events like the RBI policy, US Fed meet, and Gujarat poll results. FIIs also reduced their index futures open interest by 37%.
• Mid-Term Review of Foreign Trade Policy: The Union government released its "Mid-Term Review of Foreign Trade Policy" (2015-20) on December 5, 2017, aiming to encourage exports by exploring new markets and products, and increasing India's share in traditional ones.1
  
  
  

Technical Analysis:

• Crucial Support Levels: Nifty Future was trading near crucial support levels, specifically a trend line and the 200-day moving average on the daily chart.
• Breach of 10100: The market sharply breached the 10100 support level on December 6th, which the article attributes to concerns over the RBI monetary policy.
• Potential False Breakout: The author raises the question of whether this breach might be a "false breakout," suggesting a potential bounce back that could "catch the bears on the wrong foot." This would require the market to breach the trend line and 200-day moving average support level.
• Strong Fundamentals: Despite the technical pressures, the article states that "Fundamentals are strong for Indian market as back to back reforms and rating from Baa3 to Baa2 upgrade by Moody’s help Indian market to stay strong and gain momentum."
• Price Targets and Stop Loss: Technically, Nifty Future was predicted to move up above 10100 and potentially test 10200 and 10350 in the December expiry. A technical stop loss was set at 9970.
• Pivot Points: Resistance levels were given as 10187, 10227, and 10315. Support levels were 10051, 9962, and 9874.

Market Context and Outcomes (Based on searches):

• RBI Monetary Policy (December 2017): The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6% in its monetary policy review on December 6, 2017.2 This was widely expected due to concerns over rising inflation. The policy stance remained neutral. So, the market reaction to RBI's policy was in line with expectations, not a surprise.
  
  
  
  
• US Fed Meet (December 2017): The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve met on December 12-13, 2017. As widely anticipated, they raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.
• Gujarat Poll Results (December 2017): The Gujarat Legislative Assembly elections were held on December 9 and 14, 2017, with results declared on December 18, 2017. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retained power, winning 99 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) secured 77 seats. The outcome was closely watched and could have influenced market sentiment.
• Moody's Rating Upgrade: Moody's Investors Service upgraded India's sovereign credit rating to Baa2 from Baa3 on November 16, 2017, changing the outlook to 'stable' from 'positive'.3 This was indeed a significant positive fundamental development.
  
  
  
  
• Nifty Performance in December 2017: The Nifty 50 did experience a dip in early December. After the election results on Dec 18, the Nifty did see a rebound, moving up towards the 10,400-10,500 levels by the end of December. The "false breakout" prediction in the article, indicating a bounce back, proved to be somewhat accurate in the latter half of the month, likely influenced by the Gujarat election outcome and global cues.

In summary, the article provided a timely market commentary, highlighting the prevailing bearish sentiment and key upcoming events. While it accurately noted the FIIs' positioning and market volatility, its technical prediction of a bounce-back above 10100 and towards 10200-10350 was eventually realized, especially after the Gujarat election results. The positive fundamental factor of the Moody's upgrade was also correctly emphasized.