THE members of a conservative coalition behind the toppling of Manuel Zelaya as president of Honduras, on June 28th, have since been betting that presidential elections would serve to legitimise their military coup. Despite intense pressure from abroad, the de facto regime that has been running the country in recent months was convinced that foreign leaders would in the end refuse to punish a successor government for earlier sins. The test came on Sunday November 29th with the completion of a relatively peaceful vote, which the centre-right candidate Porfirio Lobo Sosa won comfortably. To the great chagrin of observers across the hemisphere, it seems the result will be respected and the strategy of the coup-plotters will be rewarded.
Local human-rights groups insist that a free and fair election was impossible in the current situation. They point to a series of abuses ahead of the vote: intermittent suspension of anti-coup media outlets, suppression of large opposition rallies and the declaration of a state of siege shortly before the polls opened. Moreover, the self-described “resistance” movement appeared to have the de facto president, Roberto Micheletti, in a bind. By calling for massive protests on election day, they would either discourage many prospective voters from turning out, or force him to disperse them by force in front of international observers.
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However, Mr Micheletti’s strict security measures, including a vow to charge anyone calling for a boycott with electoral crimes punishable by as much as six years in prison, apparently made an impact. According to Rafael Alegría, the leader of the resistance, the movement’s supporters were intimidated by “a climate of fear and threats of violence” and chose to stay at home. As a result, with the exception of one clash between security forces and protesters in San Pedro Sula, Honduras’s second city, the election was undisturbed.
That calm made possible a robust turnout: although a definitive figure has not been released, preliminary estimates range from 48% (roughly the mark when Mr Zelaya was elected in 2005) to an outstanding 61%. Mr Zelaya claims that only 33% turned out, but it seems likely that many countries will make good on earlier indications that they would recognise the winner. These include the United States, Colombia, Peru, Panama, and Costa Rica.
Instead of disrupting the election, the resistance was betting that a weak turnout would expose the vote as a farce. But its leaders appear to have misread the country’s political winds. Although more Hondurans recognised Mr Zelaya as president than Mr Micheletti, according to a CID/Gallup poll in October, three-quarters of respondents believed that the elections would help to solve the crisis. As a result, many people who were opposed to the coup still went to the polls. “Micheletti isn’t legitimate, but Pepe will be,” said Miguel Matamoros, a municipal government chauffeur, shortly after voting for Mr Lobo. “You don’t need a legitimate government to have legitimate elections.”
Mr Zelaya’s fate may be decided on December 2nd, when the Congress is scheduled to vote on whether to overturn its decree declaring Mr Micheletti president, as stipulated by a American-sponsored agreement between the two leaders that was signed on October 30th. The legislature is widely expected to refuse to do so, in part because many lawmakers fear that reversing course would be tantamount to accepting that they committed a crime in removing Mr Zelaya.
What happens then to the deposed president is uncertain. Since September 21st, when he crept into the country after nearly three months in exile, he has been housed in the Brazilian embassy. The de facto government says that if he steps outside, he will be arrested to face 18 criminal charges. These stem from his campaign for constitutional reform that the coup’s architects, who were backed by Congress and the courts, saw as a bid to remove presidential term limits. O Estado de São Paulo, a Brazilian newspaper, reported on Saturday that he may seek asylum in neighbouring Nicaragua.
For now, regional heavyweights such as Brazil and Argentina insist they will not recognise the winner of an election held under a government that they consider illegal. Yet after Mr Lobo takes office on January 27th, it is hard to see what conditions they would impose in exchange for restoring relations, since neither a do-over election nor an extension of Mr Zelaya’s term are considered to be viable. One way or another, Honduras’s new government is likely to pick up diplomatic recognition, even though the coup is unlikely to be reversed. The great worry, however, is whether a dangerous precedent has been set.:SugarwareZ-262:
Local human-rights groups insist that a free and fair election was impossible in the current situation. They point to a series of abuses ahead of the vote: intermittent suspension of anti-coup media outlets, suppression of large opposition rallies and the declaration of a state of siege shortly before the polls opened. Moreover, the self-described “resistance” movement appeared to have the de facto president, Roberto Micheletti, in a bind. By calling for massive protests on election day, they would either discourage many prospective voters from turning out, or force him to disperse them by force in front of international observers.
Click Here
However, Mr Micheletti’s strict security measures, including a vow to charge anyone calling for a boycott with electoral crimes punishable by as much as six years in prison, apparently made an impact. According to Rafael Alegría, the leader of the resistance, the movement’s supporters were intimidated by “a climate of fear and threats of violence” and chose to stay at home. As a result, with the exception of one clash between security forces and protesters in San Pedro Sula, Honduras’s second city, the election was undisturbed.
That calm made possible a robust turnout: although a definitive figure has not been released, preliminary estimates range from 48% (roughly the mark when Mr Zelaya was elected in 2005) to an outstanding 61%. Mr Zelaya claims that only 33% turned out, but it seems likely that many countries will make good on earlier indications that they would recognise the winner. These include the United States, Colombia, Peru, Panama, and Costa Rica.
Instead of disrupting the election, the resistance was betting that a weak turnout would expose the vote as a farce. But its leaders appear to have misread the country’s political winds. Although more Hondurans recognised Mr Zelaya as president than Mr Micheletti, according to a CID/Gallup poll in October, three-quarters of respondents believed that the elections would help to solve the crisis. As a result, many people who were opposed to the coup still went to the polls. “Micheletti isn’t legitimate, but Pepe will be,” said Miguel Matamoros, a municipal government chauffeur, shortly after voting for Mr Lobo. “You don’t need a legitimate government to have legitimate elections.”
Mr Zelaya’s fate may be decided on December 2nd, when the Congress is scheduled to vote on whether to overturn its decree declaring Mr Micheletti president, as stipulated by a American-sponsored agreement between the two leaders that was signed on October 30th. The legislature is widely expected to refuse to do so, in part because many lawmakers fear that reversing course would be tantamount to accepting that they committed a crime in removing Mr Zelaya.
What happens then to the deposed president is uncertain. Since September 21st, when he crept into the country after nearly three months in exile, he has been housed in the Brazilian embassy. The de facto government says that if he steps outside, he will be arrested to face 18 criminal charges. These stem from his campaign for constitutional reform that the coup’s architects, who were backed by Congress and the courts, saw as a bid to remove presidential term limits. O Estado de São Paulo, a Brazilian newspaper, reported on Saturday that he may seek asylum in neighbouring Nicaragua.
For now, regional heavyweights such as Brazil and Argentina insist they will not recognise the winner of an election held under a government that they consider illegal. Yet after Mr Lobo takes office on January 27th, it is hard to see what conditions they would impose in exchange for restoring relations, since neither a do-over election nor an extension of Mr Zelaya’s term are considered to be viable. One way or another, Honduras’s new government is likely to pick up diplomatic recognition, even though the coup is unlikely to be reversed. The great worry, however, is whether a dangerous precedent has been set.:SugarwareZ-262: