Description
The PPT highlights about Forecasting the Chinese Population growth rate.
Forecasting China’s population growth rate in 2010
Methodology
• Gathered China’s population data from 1960 to 2009 • Calculated forecasted population for 2010 • Calculated forecasted growth rate for population in 2010 • Calculated variance
Techniques
• • • • 2 year’s moving average 3 year’s moving average Cumulative average Exponential Smoothing
2 Year’s Moving Average
• The average of last two years is treated as the forecasted population for the next year • Smooth out short-term fluctuations • Highlight medium-term trends or cycles • China’s population in 2010 would be 1328842294 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.519584501
3.5
2 Year's moving Average
Population growth (annual %)
3
2.5
Moving Average 2 Years Moving Average (2 Years) for growth rate Population growth (annual %) Moving Average 3 Years Forecast
2
1.5 Axis Title
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
3 Year’s Moving Average
• The average of last three years is treated as the forecasted population for the next year • This reduces the variation in forecast due to sudden increase or decrease in population in some particular year • China’s population in 2010 would be 1325331437 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.531734513
3.5
3 year's moving Average
Population growth (annual %)
3
2.5
Moving Average 3 Years Forecast
2
1.5
Axis Title
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
Cumulative average
• The forecast of population is done by simply taking average of all the past years(from 1960 onwards in this case). • This smoothens out the sudden variation in population growth in some particular year due to some natural disaster or any other reason • But any change in population growth due to change in Government policies may not be accurately depicted when using this technique • Using Cumulative average, China’s population in 2010 would be 1031890836 and its forecasted growth rate is 1.424415218
Cumulative Average
3.5 Population growth (annual %) 3 Cumulative Average Forecast for growth rate 2.5
2
1.5 Axis Title
1
0.5
0 2010 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 -0.5
-1
-1.5
Exponential Smoothing
• Exponential smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights over time • Recent observations are given relatively more weight than the older observations. • Population forecast for 2010 = ? (Actual population of 2009) + (1-?) (Population forecast for 2009). ? = 0.95 • China’s population in 2010 would be 1331705089 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.486780066.
Exponential Smoothning
3.5 Population growth (annual %) 3 Exponential Smoothening Forecast for growth rate 2.5
2
1.5 Axis Title
1
0.5
0 2010 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 -0.5
-1
-1.5
Combined Results
Method 2 Year’s Moving Average 1328842294 3 year’s Moving Average 1325331437 Cumulative Average 1031890836 Exponential Smoothing 1331705089
Population in 2010 Population Growth rate in 2010
0.519584501
0.531734513
1.424415218
0.486780066
Variance
0.269968054
0.282741593
2.028958713
0.236954833
Conclusion
• There is no right or wrong method • Choice of method depends on industry, trends and purpose of forecast and amount of data available • Exponential smoothing follows the trend very well compared to other techniques • China’s one child policy reduced the rate of population growth.
doc_777086459.pptx
The PPT highlights about Forecasting the Chinese Population growth rate.
Forecasting China’s population growth rate in 2010
Methodology
• Gathered China’s population data from 1960 to 2009 • Calculated forecasted population for 2010 • Calculated forecasted growth rate for population in 2010 • Calculated variance
Techniques
• • • • 2 year’s moving average 3 year’s moving average Cumulative average Exponential Smoothing
2 Year’s Moving Average
• The average of last two years is treated as the forecasted population for the next year • Smooth out short-term fluctuations • Highlight medium-term trends or cycles • China’s population in 2010 would be 1328842294 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.519584501
3.5
2 Year's moving Average
Population growth (annual %)
3
2.5
Moving Average 2 Years Moving Average (2 Years) for growth rate Population growth (annual %) Moving Average 3 Years Forecast
2
1.5 Axis Title
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
3 Year’s Moving Average
• The average of last three years is treated as the forecasted population for the next year • This reduces the variation in forecast due to sudden increase or decrease in population in some particular year • China’s population in 2010 would be 1325331437 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.531734513
3.5
3 year's moving Average
Population growth (annual %)
3
2.5
Moving Average 3 Years Forecast
2
1.5
Axis Title
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
Cumulative average
• The forecast of population is done by simply taking average of all the past years(from 1960 onwards in this case). • This smoothens out the sudden variation in population growth in some particular year due to some natural disaster or any other reason • But any change in population growth due to change in Government policies may not be accurately depicted when using this technique • Using Cumulative average, China’s population in 2010 would be 1031890836 and its forecasted growth rate is 1.424415218
Cumulative Average
3.5 Population growth (annual %) 3 Cumulative Average Forecast for growth rate 2.5
2
1.5 Axis Title
1
0.5
0 2010 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 -0.5
-1
-1.5
Exponential Smoothing
• Exponential smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights over time • Recent observations are given relatively more weight than the older observations. • Population forecast for 2010 = ? (Actual population of 2009) + (1-?) (Population forecast for 2009). ? = 0.95 • China’s population in 2010 would be 1331705089 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.486780066.
Exponential Smoothning
3.5 Population growth (annual %) 3 Exponential Smoothening Forecast for growth rate 2.5
2
1.5 Axis Title
1
0.5
0 2010 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 -0.5
-1
-1.5
Combined Results
Method 2 Year’s Moving Average 1328842294 3 year’s Moving Average 1325331437 Cumulative Average 1031890836 Exponential Smoothing 1331705089
Population in 2010 Population Growth rate in 2010
0.519584501
0.531734513
1.424415218
0.486780066
Variance
0.269968054
0.282741593
2.028958713
0.236954833
Conclusion
• There is no right or wrong method • Choice of method depends on industry, trends and purpose of forecast and amount of data available • Exponential smoothing follows the trend very well compared to other techniques • China’s one child policy reduced the rate of population growth.
doc_777086459.pptx