Description
The documentation describes forecasting the population of China.
Forecasting China’s population growth rate in 2010
We have used 4 techniques to forecast China’s population and its population growth rate for 2010. 1. 2 years moving average A moving average is commonly used with time series data to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles. In a two years moving average, the average of last two years is treated as the forecasted population for the next year. Using Cumulative average, China’s population in 2010 would be 1328842294 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.519584501
2. 3 years moving average In a three years moving average, the average of last three years is treated as the forecasted population for the next year. This reduces the variation in forecast due to sudden increase or decrease in population in some particular year. Using Cumulative average, China’s population in 2010 would be 1325331437 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.531734513 3. Cumulative average In this method the forecast of population is done by simply by taking average of all the past years(from 1960 onwards in this case). This smoothens out the sudden variation in population growth in some particular year due to some natural disaster or any other reason. But any change in population growth due to change in Government policies may not be accurately depicted when using this technique. Using Cumulative average, China’s population in 2010 would be 1031890836 and its forecasted growth rate is 1.424415218 4. Exponential Smoothing While in the simple moving average techniques, the past observations are weighted equally, exponential smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights over time, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Double Exponential Smoothing is better at handling trends. Formula: Population forecast for 2010 = ? (Actual population of 2009) + ? (Population forecast for 2009). We have used for the calculation ? = 0.95
Using Cumulative average, China’s population in 2010 would be 1331705089 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.486780066. The trend shows a gradual decline in the population growth rate of China over the years starting 1970s. The primary reason for the same is China’s anti-natalist policy of “later – longer – fewer” and the adoption of “one child” policy in 1979.
doc_827617931.docx
The documentation describes forecasting the population of China.
Forecasting China’s population growth rate in 2010
We have used 4 techniques to forecast China’s population and its population growth rate for 2010. 1. 2 years moving average A moving average is commonly used with time series data to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles. In a two years moving average, the average of last two years is treated as the forecasted population for the next year. Using Cumulative average, China’s population in 2010 would be 1328842294 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.519584501
2. 3 years moving average In a three years moving average, the average of last three years is treated as the forecasted population for the next year. This reduces the variation in forecast due to sudden increase or decrease in population in some particular year. Using Cumulative average, China’s population in 2010 would be 1325331437 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.531734513 3. Cumulative average In this method the forecast of population is done by simply by taking average of all the past years(from 1960 onwards in this case). This smoothens out the sudden variation in population growth in some particular year due to some natural disaster or any other reason. But any change in population growth due to change in Government policies may not be accurately depicted when using this technique. Using Cumulative average, China’s population in 2010 would be 1031890836 and its forecasted growth rate is 1.424415218 4. Exponential Smoothing While in the simple moving average techniques, the past observations are weighted equally, exponential smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights over time, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Double Exponential Smoothing is better at handling trends. Formula: Population forecast for 2010 = ? (Actual population of 2009) + ? (Population forecast for 2009). We have used for the calculation ? = 0.95
Using Cumulative average, China’s population in 2010 would be 1331705089 and its forecasted growth rate is 0.486780066. The trend shows a gradual decline in the population growth rate of China over the years starting 1970s. The primary reason for the same is China’s anti-natalist policy of “later – longer – fewer” and the adoption of “one child” policy in 1979.
doc_827617931.docx