Financial Model

Description
THis is a financial model of the company Binani Cement which will be delisted soon from the stock markets

FINANCIAL MODEL

Binani Cement Limited
Prepared by-

Rinkesh Shah PG10072
Contents: 1 Basis for Assumption' 2 Balance sheet 3 Profit and Loss account 4 Assumptions 5 cash flow 6 Capex 7 Debt Repayment

DEL

t Limited

Basis for Model Historical Data Historical data used in this model is on standalone basis. Revenue Projection For the revenue projection following factors are considered

The key drivers of Cement Industry in India are 1) Buoyant real estate market in non metro cities. 2) Increase in infrastructure spending on power, road, port and urban infrastructure. 3) Increase in rural demand driven by National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS). 4) Low-cost housing in urban and rural areas under schemes like Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Ren and Indira Aawas Yojana 5) Favourable interest rates and tax benefits on housing. 6) Domestic Industrial growth and major expansion plans announced across different segments.

Basis of Sales: Growth in domestic cement demand is expected to remain strong, given the revival in the housing se spending on the rural infrastructure and gradual increase in the number of infrastructure projects bein The trend in demand growth seen during the last five years is expected to continue over the medium targeting 8-10% GDP growth rate, cement demand should grow at 9-10% over the next few years.

Basis of Price: The Cement Sector is expected to grow by 9-10% in the Financial Year 2010-11 compared to India’s e housing and construction sector generates 50% of the overall demand of Cement in the country and t continue in the coming years as well. But the expected capacity additions, increased cost of raw mate service tax on housing sector and gradual withdrawal of stimulus package granted to the Cement Indu margins in the coming years. Future Plans The Company proposes to set up a Greenfield Cement plant of 2.5 million tonnes per annum capacity company plans for capital expenditure. M&A's It has been assumed that not M&A Activities will take place in the next 5 years

Debt For Capex it is assumed that no debt will be take and the capex would be funded through positive cas loans

eme (NREGS). u National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM)

rent segments.

val in the housing sector, continued Government tructure projects being executed by the private sector. ue over the medium term. Further, with Government e next few years.

ompared to India’s expected GDP of 8.5% . The t in the country and the demand is expected to sed cost of raw material, fuel and logistics, proposed d to the Cement Industry will have pressure on

per annum capacity at Sutrapada. For this the

through positive cash flow and Reserves and surplus. The company wont take any

Back to schedule

Binani Cement Balance Sheet Sources Of Funds Share Holders Funds Share Capital Reserves and Surplus Total Loan Funds Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Total Deferred Tax Liability Trade Deposits Total Applications of Funds Fixed Assets Gross Block Less: Accum. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work in Progress Total Investments

(All Figures in INR Lacs unless specified ) (2007-08 ) (2008-09 ) (2009-10 ) (2010-11 )

20,310 21,454 41,764

20,310 27,330 47,641

20,310 20,310 47,205 81,607 67,516 101,917

73,233 3,814 77,046 12,752 2,175 133,738

74,020 3,814 77,833 15,542 2,476 143,492

92,296 6,014 98,309 18,677 2,871 187,373

91,523 18,677 2,871 214,988

144,539 39,711 104,828 17,147 121,976 4,677

158,868 47,119 111,749 20,230 131,979 21,130

180,051 55,282 124,769 10,001 134,769 37,457

180,051 64,285 115,766 115,766 37,457

Current assets, loans and advances Inventories 21,744 Cash and Bank Balance 9,593 Loans and Advances 18,873 Total 50,210 Current Liabilities and provisions Current Liabilities 34,893 Provisions 8,232 Total 43,125 Net Current Assets Total Unbalanced amount 7,085 133,738

21,254 8,721 18,479 48,455

16,998 30,944 24,193 72,135

17,153 89,968 24,193 131,314

51,092 6,980 58,072 (9,617) 143,492

43,833 13,156 56,989 15,146 187,373

56,393 13,156 69,549 61,765 214,988 ()

(2011-12 ) (2012-13 ) (2013-14 ) (2014-15 )

20,310 121,048 141,358

20,310 168,763 189,074

20,310 226,024 246,334

20,310 292,054 312,365

84,194 18,677 2,871 247,100

76,278 18,677 2,871 286,900

67,730 18,677 2,871 335,612

58,497 18,677 2,871 392,410

253,054 76,937 176,116 176,116 37,457

265,706 90,223 175,484 175,484 37,457

278,992 104,172 174,819 174,819 37,457

356,941 122,019 234,922 234,922 37,457

19,767 67,710 24,193 111,671

22,783 115,042 24,193 162,019

26,262 172,378 24,193 222,834

30,277 178,257 24,193 232,727

64,988 13,156 78,144 33,527 247,100 ()

74,903 13,156 88,059 73,959 286,900 ()

86,342 13,156 99,498 123,336 335,612 () Back to schedule

99,540 13,156 112,696 120,031 392,410 ()

All figures in INR Lacs unless specified (2007-08 ) (2008-09 ) Cement Actual production Value Volumes of cement Price per ton(in Rs) Sales Assumption:% increase in volumes YoY Assumption: % increase in price per ton YoY Clinker Volumes Price per ton(in Rs) Sales Assumption: The Volumes of Clinker increase by 5% YoY Assumption: The Price per unit increases by 5% YoY Total Sales Raw Materials Working Production(includi ng cement and clinker) Cost of Raw Materials Price per unit(in Rs) Assumption: Increase in production YoY Assumption: Increase in price per unit YoY Selling and Admin Expenses Revenue Selling and Admin Expenses as % of Sales Assumption: Selling and admin expenses is 25% of sales

108,969 157,184 2,961,329 4,243,214 3,680 3,704 108,969.49 157,184.44

232,639 2,530 5,886

564,191 2,518 14,208

114,855

171,393

5,906,398 8,719 148

8,465,572 13,922 164

99,181 25,844 26

150,269 40,297 27

Manufacturing Expenses Production(includi ng cement and clinker) Manufacturing expense Expense per ton(in Rs) Assumption: Increase in Manufacturing expense per unit

5,906,398 27,371 463

8,465,572 62,472 738

Excise Duty Assumption: as % of total sales Other Income Assumption:% Increase in other income YoY

16,988

22,414

1,314

1,291

2008 2009 Revenue 99,181 150,269 COGS: 74,698 134,814 % of Sales 75% 90% Assumption: Taking average of the last three years and assuming it to be constant for five years

TAX: Profit before Tax 24,484 15,456 Tax 2,770 1,740 % Tax 11% 11% Assumption: The tax rate has increased from 11% to 27% and hence it seems that the tax benefits ar Tax rate is assumed to be 30% for the 5 years. Rest all taxes are assumed to be zero as of now. Loan Funds Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Total Debt Assumption: Interest Charges on loans taken

73,233 3,814 77,046

74,020 3,814 77,833

Depreciation Gross Block Depreciation for the year Accumulated Depreciation Net Block Change in Gross Block Depreciation for the year as % of Gross Block Inventory Assumption: Assume % of COGS

144,539

158,868 47,119

Liabilities Average Credit Period

34,893 170

51,092 138

Sundry Debtors are not included in the Balance sheet. So it is assumed that company deals on direct

(2009-10 ) (2010-11 )

(2011-12 )

(2012-13 )

(2013-14 )

(2014-15 )

200,436 5,294,705 3,786 200,435.90

231,503 5,824,176 3,975 231,503 10% 5%

267,387 6,406,593 4,174 267,387 10% 5%

308,831 7,047,252 4,382 308,831 10% 5%

356,700 7,751,978 4,601 356,700 10% 5%

411,989 8,527,175 4,831 411,989 10% 5%

212,956 2,947 6,275

223,604 3,094 6,918 5% 5% 238,422

234,784 3,249 7,627 5% 5% 275,014

246,523 3,411 8,409 5% 5% 317,240

258,849 3,582 9,271 5% 5% 365,971

271,792 3,761 10,221 5% 5% 422,210

206,711

9,686,577 25,010 258

10,655,235 28,887 271 10% 5%

11,720,758 33,365 285 10% 5%

12,892,834 38,536 299 10% 5%

14,182,117 44,509 314 10% 5%

15,600,329 51,408 330 10% 5%

187,216 45,032 24

214,411 53,603 25%

247,089 61,772 25%

284,787 71,197 25%

328,280 82,070 25%

378,461 94,615 25%

9,686,577 54,560 563

10,655,235 63,017 591 5%

11,720,758 72,785 621 5%

12,892,834 84,066 652 5%

14,182,117 97,097 685 5%

15,600,329 112,146 719 5%

21,606

26,226 11% 2,216 5%

30,252 11% 2,327 5%

34,896 11% 2,443 5%

40,257 11% 2,565 5%

46,443 11% 2,694 5%

2,111

2010 187,216 145,054 77% constant for five years

2011 214,411 171,529 80%

2012 247,089 197,671 80%

2013 284,787 227,830 80%

2014 328,280 262,624 80%

2015 378,461 302,768 80%

40,800 49,145 56,344 11,299 14,743 16,903 28% 30% 30% ems that the tax benefits are no longer available.

68,165 20,450 30%

81,801 24,540 30%

94,329 28,299 30%

92,296 6,014 98,309

92,296 6,014 98,309 8.50%

92,296 6,014 98,309 8.50%

92,296 6,014 98,309 8.50%

92,296 6,014 98,309 8.50%

92,296 6,014 98,309 8.50%

180,051 8,163 55,282 124,769 13% 5% 16,998

180,051 9,003 64,285 115,766 0% 5% 17,153 10%

253,054 12,653 76,937 176,116 0% 5% 19,767 10%

265,706 13,285 90,223 175,484 0% 5% 22,783 10%

278,992 13,950 104,172 174,819 0% 5% 26,262 10%

356,941 17,847 122,019 234,922 0% 5% 30,277 10%

43,833 110

56,393 120

64,988 120

74,903 120

86,342 120

99,540 120

at company deals on direct cash basis Back to schedule

Binani Cement Profit & Loss account (All figures in INR Lacs unless specified) 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Income Sales Turnover Less: Excise Duty Net Sales Other Income Total Income Total Expenditure Raw Materials Other Manufacturing Expenses Payment to and Provision for Employees Selling and Admin Expenses Interest and Finance Charges Depreciation and Amortization Total Expenses

114,855 171,393 206,711 16,988 22,414 21,606 97,868 148,979 185,105 1,314 1,291 2,111 99,181 150,270 187,216

238,422 26,226 212,195 2,216 214,411 14.64% 28,887 63,017 3,435 53,603 7,322 9,003 165,266 49,145 0 49,145 14,743 0 3,135 0 0 34,401 0 0 0 0 0 34,401

8,719 13,922 25,010 27,371 62,472 54,560 2,550 2,939 3,435 25,844 40,297 45,032 4,647 7,152 7,851 5,567 8,031 9,166 74,698 134,814 145,054 15,456 15,456 1,740 2,790 59 42,161 -1,361 40,800 11,299 1,748 3,135 0 77 28,192 19,597 1,200 -2,900 -7,109 -1,208 37,772

Profit Before Taxation and Prior period items 24,484 Prior period adjustments Profit Before Tax 24,484 Less - Current Tax 2,770 Add - MAT Credit Entitlement 4,359 Less - Deferred Tax 8,440 Less - Fringe Benefit Tax 51 Add - Excess Provision of earlier year written back Profit after Tax 17,582 Balance brought forward from Previous Year5,179 Transfer from / (to) Debenture Redemption Reserve -1,300 Transfer to General Reserve -1,800 Proposed Dividend -5,078 Tax on Proposed Dividend -863 Balance Carried to Balance Sheet 13,721

10,867 13,721 1,100 -1,100 -4,265 -725 19,598

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

275,014 317,240 365,971 422,210 30,252 34,896 40,257 46,443 244,762 282,344 325,714 375,767 2,327 2,443 2,565 2,694 247,089 284,787 328,280 378,461 15.35% 15.35% 15.36% 15.37% 33,365 38,536 44,509 51,408 72,785 84,066 97,097 112,146 3,435 3,435 3,435 3,435 61,772 71,197 82,070 94,615 6,736 6,102 5,418 4,680 12,653 13,285 13,950 17,847 190,745 216,622 246,479 284,132 56,344 0 56,344 16,903 0 3,135 0 0 39,441 0 0 0 0 0 39,441 68,165 0 68,165 20,450 0 3,135 0 0 47,716 0 0 0 0 0 47,716 81,801 0 81,801 24,540 0 3,135 0 0 57,261 0 0 0 0 0 57,261 94,329 0 94,329 28,299 0 3,135 0 0 66,030 0 0 0 0 0 66,030

Back to schedule

All figures in INR lacs unless specified

CAPEX SCHEDULE

(2007-08 ) (2008-09 ) (2009-10 )

Capacity (MT) 6,000,000 6,000,000 ### Production 2,958,452 4,292,089 ### Utilization 49% 72% 84% Additional Capacity installed - 250,000 Capex Basis of Assumption: When the production of cement crosses more than 95% of the installed capacity Capacity is increased by 2 million tonnes Capacity addition 2,000,000 Capex required for installing 1 MT (in Rs) 3,200

Maintenance Capex 0 0 0 % of Gross block 0 0 0 Assumption: Maintenance CAPEX has been assumed to be constant for 5 years and is taken as a perce

(2010-11 ) (2011-12 ) (2012-13 )

(2013-14 )

(2014-15 ) 10,250,000 8,527,175 83% 2,000,000 64,000

6,250,000 8,250,000 8,250,000 8,250,000 5,824,176 6,406,593 7,047,252 7,751,978 93% 78% 85% 94% 2,000,000 64,000 of the installed capacity additional capacity is installed

9,003 12,653 13,285 5% 5% 5% and is taken as a percentage of Gross Block.

13,950 5%

17,847 5%

Back to schedule

Binani Cement Cash Flow statement A.CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES Profit After Taxation Depreciation Deferred Tax Asset/Liability Operating profit before Working Capital Changes CASH FLOW FROM WORKING CAPITAL CHANGES (Increase)/Decrease in Inventories (Increase)/Decrease in Sundry Debtors (Increase)/Decrease in Loans & Advances Increase/(Decrease) in Current Liabilities Increase/(Decrease) in Provisions Cash generated from Operations Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (A) B.CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES Sale/(Purchase) of Investment Sale/(Purchase) of Fixed Asset Increase in Capital Work in Progress Net Cash Flow from Investing Activities (B) C. CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES Increase/(Decrease) in Total Debt Net Cash Flow from Financing Activity (C)

(2010-11 ) (2011-12 )

34,401 9,003 43,404

39,441 12,653 52,094

-155 12,560 12,406 55,810

-2,614 8,595 5,980 58,074

10,001 10,001

-73,003 -73,003

-6,786 -6,786

-7,329 -7,329

Net Increase/(Decrease) in cash and cash equivalents (A+B+C) 59,024 Cash and Cash equivalents at the beginning of the year 30,944 Cash and Cash equivalents at the end of the year 89,968

-22,258 89,968 67,710

(2012-13 ) (2013-14 ) (2014-15 )

47,716 13,285 61,001

57,261 13,950 71,210

66,030 17,847 83,877

-3,016 9,915 6,899 67,900

-3,479 11,439 7,960 79,170

-4,014 Sundry Debtors are not included in the standalone balance - sheet 13,198 9,184 93,061

-12,653 -12,653

-13,285 -13,285

-77,950 -77,950

-7,915 -7,915

-8,549 -8,549

-9,233 -9,233

47,332 67,710 115,042

57,336 115,042 172,378

5,879 172,378 178,257

Back to schedule

tandalone balance

CRITICAL OUTPUT SHEET All Figures in INR Lacs unless specified

Critical Output Year to 31st March Revenue Revenue Growth Gross Profit Gross Profit as a % of Revenue EBITDA EBITDA to Revenue Depreciation (P&L) Accumulated Depreciation Interest Outgo PAT PAT to Operating Revenue Maintenance Capex Capex Cash and Bank Balance Net Current Asset

(2007-08(2008-09 ) ) (2009-10 ) (2010-11 ) (2011-12 ) 99,181 150,270 52 60,541 61 34,697 35 5,567 0 4,647 17,582 18 0 0 9,593 7,085 70,936 47 30,640 20 8,031 47,119 7,152 10,867 7 0 0 8,721 -9,617 187,216 25 104,210 56 57,817 31 9,166 55,282 7,851 28,192 15 0 0 30,944 15,146 214,411 247,089 15 15

119,072 137,505 56 65,469 31 9,003 64,285 7,322 34,401 16 9,003 0 89,968 61,765 56 75,732 31 12,653 76,937 6,736 39,441 16 12,653 64,000 67,710 33,527

(2012-13 )(2013-14 (2014-15 ) ) 284,787 15 158,750 56 87,553 31 13,285 90,223 6,102 47,716 17 13,285 0 115,042 73,959 328,280 15 183,239 56 101,169 31 13,950 104,172 5,418 57,261 17 13,950 0 172,378 123,336 378,461 15 211,471 56 116,856 31 17,847 122,019 4,680 66,030 17 17,847 64,000 178,257 120,031

Back to schedule

Total Debt Repayment Schedule (EMI basis) Assumption: The company had taken loans from SBI and no further debt would be taken and the cur will be repaid within a span of 10 years

Year 2010 March 2011 March 2012 March 2013 March 2014 March 2015 March

ebt would be taken and the current debt

Principal Outstanding Principal Repayment Interest Yearly Installment 98,309 6,786 7,865 14,651 91,523 7,329 7,322 14,651 84,194 7,915 6,736 14,651 76,278 8,549 6,102 14,651 67,730 9,233 5,418 14,651 58,497 9,971 4,680 14,651 Tenure Interest rate 10 8% Back to schedule

Balance Sheet

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Sources Of Funds Share Holders Funds Share Capital 20310.38 20310.38 20310.38 20310.38 Reserves and Surplus 27330.41 47205.37 81606.72 ### Total 47640.79 67515.75 101917.1 ### Loan Funds Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Total

74019.6 92295.59 3813.54 6013.54 77833.14 98309.13 91522.9 84193.77

Deferred Tax Liability 15542 18677 18677 18677 Trade Deposits 2476.08 2871.09 2871.09 2871.09 Total ### ### ### ###

Applications of Funds Fixed Assets Gross Block ### ### 180051 ### Less: Accum. Depreciation 47118.85 55282.38 64284.55 76937.23 Net Block ### ### ### ### Capital Work in Progress 20230.14 10000.86 0 0 Total ### ### ### ### Investments 21129.87 37457.2 37457 37457

Current assets, loans and advances Inventories 21253.95 16998.15 17152.9 19767.13 Cash and Bank Balance 8721.46 30943.59 89967.55 67709.99 Loans and Advances 18479.31 24193.4 24193.4 24193.4 Total 48454.72 72135.14 ### ### Current Liabilities and provisions Current Liabilities 51091.78 43832.71 56393.1 64987.81 Provisions 6980.17 13156.13 13156.13 13156.13 Total 58071.95 56988.84 69549.23 78143.94 Net Current Assets Total -9617.23 15146.3 61764.62 33526.57 ### ### ### 247099.9

Cash Flow statement

2010-11 2011-12

A.CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES Profit After Taxation 34401 Depreciation 9003 Deferred Tax Asset/Liability 0 Operating profit before Working Capital Changes 43404 CASH FLOW FROM WORKING CAPITAL CHANGES (Increase)/Decrease in Inventories -155 (Increase)/Decrease in Sundry Debtors (Increase)/Decrease in Loans & Advances 0 Increase/(Decrease) in Current Liabilities 12560 Increase/(Decrease) in Provisions 0 Cash generated from Operations 12406 Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (A) 55810 B.CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES Sale/(Purchase) of Investment 0 Sale/(Purchase) of Fixed Asset 0 Increase in Capital Work in Progress 10001 Net Cash Flow from Investing Activities (B) 10001 C. CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES Increase/(Decrease) in Total Debt -6786 Net Cash Flow from Financing Activity (C) -6786

39441 12653 0 52094

-2614 0 8595 0 5980 58074

0 -73003 0 -73003

-7329 -7329

Net Increase/(Decrease) in cash and cash equivalents (A+B+C) 59024 -22258 Cash and Cash equivalents at the beginning of the year 30944 89968 Cash and Cash equivalents at the end of the year 9968 8 67710

Key Ratios: Particulars FY09 A FY10E FY11E OPM(%) 20 32 32 PAT(%) 7 19 18 ROE(%) 23 41 32 ROCE(%) 18 30 28 P/BV(x) 1.22 1.75 1.20 P/E(x) 5.35 4.27 3.76 EV/EBDITA(x) 4.63 2.68 2.56 Debt Equity(x) 1.63 1.01 0.72

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

47716 13285 0 61001

57261 13950 0 71210

66030 17847 0 83877

-3016 0 9915 0 6899 67900

-3479 0 11439 0 7960 79170

-4014 0 13198 0 9184 93061

0 -12653 0 -12653

0 -13285 0 -13285

0 -77950 0 -77950

-7915 -7915 47332 67710 115042

-8549 -8549 57336 115042 172378

-9233 -9233 5879 172378 178257



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