Description
Project On Denim Forecast In Nafta Countries
A STUDY TO ASSESS EXPORT POTENTIAL IN NAFTA (NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT) COUNTRIES
SUBMITTED BY SATISH KSHATRIYA: 1072592002 SUBMITTED TO
Indus Institute of Technology & Engineering- Ahmedabad, As Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Post Graduate in Master in Business Administration (1 June 2011-1 July2011) Under the Guidance of Dr. D.K. JAIN (CHIRIPAL GROUP OF COMPANIES) & Prof. Garima Mishra
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Declaration by the Student
We hereby declare that this project report titled “A study to assess export potential in NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)” has been submitted by us for the requirements for the Post Graduate in Master & Business Administration (2010-12).
This is the result of original work carried out by us. This report has not been submitted anywhere else for award of any other degree/diploma.
Satish Kshatriya
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Acknowledgement
????????????????????????
Someone has rightly said, “No one can live in isolation”. It is true that every individual needs the help of others in every work he does.
???????????????????????? First of all we would like to express our gratitude to Dr. D.K. Jain (Director Of Chiripal Group Of Companies) and whose cordial attitude and valuable guidance has help us for our successful completion of this project.
We are greatly thankful and express our sincere regards to Dr. Ashish Joshi (Head Of Department, MBA), and Ms Garima Mishra for their invaluable assistance in major part of our project work. They had been informative, supportive and completely devoted during the entire training period of our study.
During my Summer Training so many people helped me directly or indirectly, I heartily thankful to all of them and I would like to thank all people and colleagues who helped us directly or indirectly towards the completion of project report. Last but not the least, it is worth a mention the loyalty and sincerely devoted for completion of this project.
With sincere regards, Satish Kshatriya
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Executive summary
Nandan Denim is a part of 'Chiripal Group' which has been into the textile business for over three decades. Companies of the group are involved in the business of Processing, Weaving, Knitting and Petrochemicals. Started off as a Private Ltd Company, it is now a Public Limited company since year 2004. The total employee strength of the company is over 1000 creative people and over 5000 for the group. The group is located in the textile hub of the country - "AHMEDABAD". The region is rich in cotton produce - the most important component for denim especially. It is close to Sea Port & financial capital of India - 'Mumbai'. An overnight journey from factory to Port adds to the quick turnaround time required today in the ever-changing Fashion Industry. Nandan Denim is the latest venture of the group, started earlier in the decade & exclusively into production and export of Denim Fabrics. We are producing around 30 Million mtr of Denim right now with plans of further increasing the capacity to 40 Million Mtrs per Annum. The company focus on quality is supported by the investments made in the best machinery Dyeing & Sizing by Sucker Muller of Germany, High Speed Looms by Tsudakoma & Toyoda of Japan and best Finishing Ranges by Monforts of Germany & Morrison of US. The testing labs are equipped with the latest instruments to ensure immaculate quality control and complete customer satisfaction. The company is ISO 9001 & Oeko-tex certified - a step towards being more organized and responsible citizen. The product range comprise of specialty articles like Cotton-Lurex, Cotton-Tencel, CottonModal, Colored Wefts & Colored Denim, in addition to the 100% Cotton article in Rings / Slubs / Crosshatch / Open End / Multicount / Uneven Ring. The range also includes Cotton Stretch & Cotton Poly-Stretch articles. Various shades in Indigo, Black, Toppings, Bottoming & combination of various colors are also part of our development efforts.
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Company Background
CHIRIPAL GROUP, having turnover of 245 million US$, is one of the largest manufacturer and exporter of various types of Textile products from India. We are equipped with state-of-the-art Spinning, Weaving, Dyeing, Printing, Processing & Garmenting facilities. The group consists of different divisions namely Process Division, Woven Division, Knitting Division, Polar Fleece Division, Flock Division, Cotton Hosiery Division, Apparel Division, Home Furnishing Division, Denim & 100% Cotton Bottom weight fabrics/Khakis Division. Embroidery Division and Chemical Division located at Ahmedabad in India. In India, we have established a strong position as one of the leading integrated textile house manufacturing & supplying fibre to fabrics under one roof. We also have a significant presence in the international markets as well. We are currently exporting textiles & garments to various international Brands and wholesalers in Europe, USA, Canada, South America, Far East, Middle East, Gulf & African countries. We are specialized in manufacturing & supplying the following types of textile items :? Dyed & Printed fabrics made from 100% Cotton, 100% Polyester & its Blends with Cotton, Viscose etc. ? Printed Fabrics like Lazer Print, Ozone Print, Pestle colors Print, Foil Print, Zari etc. (Chadri Print / Irani Items) ? Chiffon Printed fabrics, Voile Printed Fabrics, Gorget Brasso Printed fabrics, Capital Silk Printed fabrics etc. ? All types of Lapet & Butta Printed Fabrics. ? 30’s & 60’s 100% Cotton Printed Fabrics. ? 100% Cotton White-Cream Fabrics & Printed Shirting Fabrics. ? Denim Fabrics & Denim Garments and 100% Cotton Bottom Weight & blended fabrics of different weaves, dyes, combination of yarns, weights etc. These fabrics find applications in various outfits and garments. The range of fabrics include denim, twills, stretch, bull denim, broken twills. We have complete set up of state-of-the-art imported CBR (Continuous Bleaching Range) & CDR (Continuous Dyeing Range) for consistent, quality & satisfactory dyeing. ? Flock fabrics include plain, Embossed, Printed for Home Textiles, Seat Covers, Curtains & Fancy Dress & Shirting. ? Bed Sheets – Flat Sheets, Fitted Sheets, Duvets & many more items made of 100% Micro Polyester and Warp Knit. ? Wide range of Embroidery Fabrics. ? Dyed & Printed Knitted Fabrics made from 100% Cotton, Polyester & its Blends. We have the most popular Circular Knitting M/c name Dia-30”. ? Dyed & Printed Warp Knitting Fabrics – These are mainly for Curtains, Duvet Covers, and Seat Covers for Automotive Industry & Upholstery.
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? Polar Fleece Fabrics, Spun polar fleece, Micro polar fleece and Drop needle polar fleece in 140 to 350€ GSM range. ? Cotton Hosiery like Cotton Single Jersey, Cotton Lycra, Cotton waffle Knit, Pique Fabric, 1/1 Rib Fabric, Interlock Fabric, Cotton Viscose Fabric, Cotton Polyester Fabric, Viscose lycra fabric, Cotton Polar Fabric, etc. Nandan Exim Ltd. is the latest venture of the group, started earlier in the decade. We are a vertically integrated mill with latest machinery used, from Spinning up to Finish fabric. We exclusively produce and export primarily Denim and few Non-Denim qualities for reputed end customers like Khols,Walmart, Chico’s, Dollar Plus, JC Penny, PVH , Mark’s & Spencer, UCB, Tesco , C & A , H & M , BHS ,Gymboree And Many More. We are producing around 40 Million mtr and expanding to 50 million meter of fabrics in Denim.
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What Is NAFTA?
? It’s a Trilateral trade Bloc Comprised Of Below three countries.
NAFTA CANADA
? ?
USA
MEXICO
The Combined GDP Is 17,617,989 Trillion USD. (First in all the Trade blocs). It is Formed On 1st Jan. 1994 By US President George W. Bush, Candaian President Brian Mulroney and Mexico President Carlos Salinas.
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Its Goal Was To Eliminate Trade Barriers, Tariff and Non – Tariff Barriers Among These Countries to encourage Trade Of Goods and Employment.
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Its Head Offices Are Located in Ottawa (Canada), Washington D.C. (USA) and Mexico.
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NAFTA Also Has Two Supplements. o NAAEC (North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation) o NAALC (North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation) Formation Of NAFTA Also Lead To certain criticism As Under. o Canadian Disputes Regarding The the provision that if something is sold even once as a commodity, the government cannot stop its sale in the future. o Change In Income Trust Taxation. o US Deindustrialization. o Impact On Mexican farmers. Apart From All These Criticism Its One Of The Most Successful And Wealthiest trade Bloc With Maximum Opportunities.
?
?
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About Canada
? ? ? ? Worlds 10th ranked country as per The GDP Of All The nations. (1.600 Trillion USD) Currency Canadian Dollar. Population :- 34,030,589 Among 37th Rank All over the World. Age Structure
0 – 14 Years - 27,36,737 Male And 26,02,342 Females – 15.7% o 16 – 64 Years – 1,17,76,611 Male And 1,15,17,972 Females – 68.5% o 65 And Above – 23,72,356 Male And 30,24,571 Females – 15.9% ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? The population below poverty line is 10.8%. Exports – 406.8 Billion USD (Maximum To USA) Imports – 406.4 Billion USD ( Maximum From USA) Canada Is A G8 Member and also a Member Of WTO,OECD And NAFTA. In Canada Service Industry Adds To maximum GDP (Retail, Finance, Education, Health, etc). Also It Is one Of The Prominent Exporter Of Energy. Canada has Flexible Organization Culture And The People there Are From variety Of Ethnic groups. Trade relations of Canada Is very Much Strong With US And They both Encourage Free trade and maximum Trade Is Between Commodity. Manufacturers Have Been Attracted to Canada Due o Highly Educated Population With lower labour Cost than US. Canada's publicly funded health care system is also an important attraction, as it exempts companies from the high health insurance costs they must pay in the United States.
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About United States
? ? ? The economy of the United States is the world's largest national economy. Its nominal GDP was estimated to be nearly $14.7 trillion in 2010. The 2010 U.S. Census reported 308,745,538 residents, making the United States the third most populous country in the world. Population :? ? ? ? ? 0-14 years: 20.2% (male 31,639,127/female 30,305,704) 15–64 years: 67% (male 102,665,043/female 103,129,321) 65 years and over: 12.8% (male 16,901,232/female 22,571,696)
Its three largest trading partners as of 2010 are Canada, China and Mexico. Historically, the U.S. economy has maintained a stable overall GDP growth rate, a low unemployment rate, and high levels of research and capital investment funded by both national and, because of decreasing saving rates, increasingly by foreign investors. It has been the world's largest national economy since the 1870 and remains the world's largest manufacturer, representing 19% of the world's manufacturing output. In 2009, consumer spending coupled with government health care spending constituted 70% of the American economy. About 30% of the entire world's millionaire population reside in the United States (in 2009). Large foreign economies like China, Japan and the member states of the European Union own huge dollar reserve so there is a fear that they will move away from the dollar. China's reserves are more than $2 trillion, the world's largest. China owns an estimated $1.6 trillion of U.S. securities. In 2007, the median real annual household income rose 1.3% to $50,233, according to the Census Bureau. The real median earnings of men who worked full time, year-round climbed between 2006 and 2007, from $43,460 to $45,113. For women, the corresponding increase was from $33,437 to $35,102. The median income per household member was $26,036 in 2006.
? ?
? ? ?
? ?
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About Mexico
? ? ? The economy of Mexico is the 13th largest in the world in nominal terms and the 11th by purchasing power parity, according to the World Bank. Mexico was one of the Latin American nations most affected by the 2008 recession with its Gross Domestic Product contracting by more than 6%. As an export-oriented economy, more than 90% of Mexican trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more than 40 countries, including the European Union, Japan, Israel, and much of Central and South America. ? The most influential FTA is the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which came into effect in 1994, and was signed in 1992 by the governments of the United States, Canada and Mexico. In 2006, trade with Mexico's two northern partners accounted for almost 90% of its exports and 55% of its imports. ? ? The first step toward the liberalization of trade was Mexico's signature of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1986. During the Salinas administration many state-owned companies were privatized. In 1992, the North American Free Trade Agreement was signed between the United States, Canada and Mexico, and after the signature of two additional supplements on environments and labor standards, it came into effect on January 1, 1994. ? ? ? ? ? 0-14 years: 29.1% 15-64 years: 64.6% 65 years and over: 6.2% The Tropic of Cancer effectively divides the country into temperate and tropical zones. Mexico has pronounced wet and dry seasons. Most of the country experiences a rainy season from June to mid-October and significantly less rain during the remainder of the year.
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Demographics Comparison of Countries Of NAFTA.
Sr. No. 1 2 3
80.00%
Age 0 – 14 Yrs 16 – 64 Yrs 65 And Above
USA 20.2% 67% 12.8%
MEXICO 29.1% 64.6% 6.2%
CANADA 15.7% 68.5% 15.9%
70.00%
16 - 64 Yrs, 67%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
0-14 Yrs, 20.20% 20.00% 65 & Above, 12.80% 10.00%
0.00% 0-14 Yrs 16 - 64 Yrs 65 & Above
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Existing and potential trade between India and Canada
Product : 5208 woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight less than 200 g/m2
India Exports To Canada Total Exports In USD(India) (Thousand) 2631 3933 2482 2509 3277 2084 2665 3233 2752 Canada Import From World Total Exports In USD(World) (Thousand) 81094 84472 78493 76805 65460 57777 60184 55691 41052 India Share Of Canada Import Percentage (%) 3.24 4.66 3.16 3.27 5.01 3.61 4.43 5.81 6.70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
India Exports
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
India Exports
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1) 5208 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton but the Weight is Less Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Canada Is of Alternating Type. There Is No Constant Rise and fall In the Exports. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Rise Seen in the Exports But later The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in Canada. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 55%. 6) From 2008 as The Canadian Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
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World Exports
90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
World Exports
1. The Above Graph Shows The Total Of World Exports To Canada. 2. By Comparing the Total world Exports to Canada, In the Year 2001 – 2002, The World Exports Risen About 4% From Last Year In which India Share Was 3.24% 3. In Year 2008 – 2009 There was Steep Downfall Of 26% but at that period India share In World Exports Was Maximum i.e. 6%. This may Be Due To Strong Hold Os India on Its Economy and Foreign reserves During the Recession period.
90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports World Exports
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Forecasting By Exponential Smoothing Technique Assuming Exponential Smoothing Constant Alpha(?) - 0.1 Forecast Of India Exports To Canada Forecasted Years Value (Xt) Value (Ft) 2001 2631 2002 3933 2003 2482 2004 2509 2005 3277 2006 2084 2007 2665 2008 3233 2009 2752 2010 25566.00
2631.00 2761.20 2733.28 2710.85 2767.47 2699.12 2695.71 2749.44 2749.69 21748.06
Error 1302.00 -279.20 -224.28 566.15 -683.47 -34.12 537.29 2.56
MPE MAPE 33.10 33.1 -11.25 11.25 -8.94 8.94 17.28 17.28 -32.80 32.8 -1.28 1.28 16.62 16.62 0.09 0.09 121.36 1186.94 12.83 13.48
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Actual Forecast
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1. In The Above Table Forecasting For The year 2010 Has Been Carried Out Using Exponential Smoothing technique. 2. The Formula Is As Under:3. Ft+1 :- ? * Xt + (1 – ?) * Ft
4. Notations 5. Ft+1 - The Forecast For The next Time period t+1. 6. Ft – The Forecast For The Present Time Period t. 7. Xt – The Actual Value For The present Time Period. 8. ? ‘- Exponential Smoothing Constant.
9. Here The Value Of Alpha is determined By Trial And Error Method Giving The Least Error. The Value Of Alpha Is 0.1. 10. From The Forecasted Figures We Can Give Below Interpretation. 11. Analyzing From Year 2003 - 2004 We Can See That there is no Significant Variation In The Forecasted And Actual Figures Of India Exports to Canada. 12. But as Seen In The Year 2005, Due To the removal Of Trade barriers There Was exponential Rise in The Exports And The Exports Increased By 17.27% from The Estimated Figures. 13. Further in the Year 2006 When the World Was Hit by Recession the Indian Exports declined by 24.69% From the Estimated Figures. 14. In 2007 The World Was Trying to recover from the global Financial Crisis again The Exports increased and with the Help of Export Promotion Schemes the Actual exports were Equal to Estimated Exports. 15. Later On the alternate Rise and Fall in the Exports Continued a Still It Is trying To Stabilize Its Position.
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Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 2840.67
Value (Y) 2631 3933 2482 2509 3277 2084 2665 3233 2752 25566
XY X^2 B? -10524 16 -27.92 -11799 9 -27.92 -4964 4 -27.92 -2509 1 -27.92 0 0 -27.92 2084 1 -27.92 5330 4 -27.92 9699 9 -27.92 11008 16 -27.92 -1675 60
B? 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67
Forecasted Years X (Years) 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Predicted Value 2701.07 2673.15 2645.23 2617.31 2589.39 2561.47 2533.55 2505.63 2477.71
Predicted Value
2750 2700 2650 2600 2550 2500 2450 2400 2350 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
17
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
? Y ? b1 X ? 0
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 2840.67 – 29.67 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
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Existing and potential trade between India and Canada
Product : 5209 woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight over 200 g/m2
India Share Of Canada Import
India Exports To Canada
Canada Import From World
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 2332 141441 1.65 1870 137417 1.36 1582 123482 1.28 1240 99463 1.25 1141 75702 1.51 794 63746 1.25 1264 58548 2.16 1039 50274 2.07 983 38429 2.56
Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand)
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand)
19
1) 5209 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton but the Weight over than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Canada Is of declining Type. There Is No Constant Rise and fall In the Exports. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Scheme the also There was no Rise Seen in the Exports But later also The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in Canada. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 37%. 6) From 2008 as The Canadian Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
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Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) Value (Y) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 1360.56
2332 1870 1582 1240 1141 794 1264 1039 983
12245
B? XY X^2 B? -9328 16 -149.52 1360.56 -5610 9 -149.52 1360.56 -3164 4 -149.52 1360.56 -1240 1 -149.52 1360.56 0 0 -149.52 1360.56 794 1 -149.52 1360.56 2528 4 -149.52 1360.56 3117 9 -149.52 1360.56 3932 16 -149.52 1360.56 -8971 60
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 612.96 2011 6 463.44 2012 7 313.92 2012 8 164.4 2013 9 14.88 2014 10 -134.64 2015 11 -284.16 2016 12 -433.68 2017 13 -583.2
Predicted Value
800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
21
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
? Y ? b1 X ? 0
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 1360.56 – 149.52 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
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Existing and potential trade between India and Canada
Product : 5210 Woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight less 200 g/m2
Canada Import From World India Share Of Canada Import
India Exports To Canada
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 693 25300 2.74 399 21357 1.87 202 20846 0.97 306 24420 1.25 172 20630 0.83 545 13562 4.02 57 10817 0.53 88 10473 0.84 46 9384 0.49
Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand)
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand)
23
1) 5210 Is the HS Code For the woven Blended Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton and Weight less than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Canada Is of declining Type. There Is No Constant Rise and fall In the Exports. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Scheme also There was no Rise Seen in the Exports But later also The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in Canada. 5) In the year 2005 – 2006 there was steep rise in the exports of manmade fibers. The rise was exponential and it was 68%. 6) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 37%. 7) From 2008 as The Canadian Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
24
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) Value (Y) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 278.67
693 399 202 306 172 545 57 88 46 2508
B? XY X^2 B? -2772 16 -59.53 278.67 -1197 9 -59.53 278.67 -404 4 -59.53 278.67 -306 1 -59.53 278.67 0 0 -59.53 278.67 545 1 -59.53 278.67 114 4 -59.53 278.67 264 9 -59.53 278.67 184 16 -59.53 278.67 -3572 60
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 -18.98 2011 6 -78.51 2012 7 -138.04 2012 8 -197.57 2013 9 -257.1 2014 10 -316.63 2015 11 -376.16 2016 12 -435.69 2017 13 -495.22
Predicted Value
0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 Predicted Value 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
25
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b? (? X ) ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X ?X ? n
1 2 2 2 2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
0
? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 278.67 – 59.53 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
26
Existing and potential trade between India and Canada
Product : 5211 Woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight over 200 g/m2
India Share Of canada Import
India Exports To Canada Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand) 1055 1700 1273 800 327 149 200 277 112
Canada Import From World Total Exports In USD (thousand) 34993 33983 28478 23154 20768 15261 13239 12493 8338
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
In percentage 3.01 5.00 4.47 3.46 1.57 0.98 1.51 2.22 1.34
Ind Exports
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ind Exports
27
1) 5211 Is the HS Code For the woven Blended Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton and Weight more than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Canada Is of declining Type. There Is No Constant Rise and fall In the Exports. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Scheme also There was Rise Seen in the Exports But later The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in Canada. 5) From 2002 – 2006 there was constant downfall of 91% from 2002 to 2006. 6) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 46%. 7) From 2008 as The Canadian Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
28
Trend Analysis By Least Square method Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N Forecasted Years 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 654.78 X (Years) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Predicted Value -248.37 -429 -609.63 -790.26 -970.89 -1151.52 -1332.15 -1512.78 -1693.41 Value (Y) 1055 1700 1273 800 327 149 200 277 112 5893 XY -4220 -5100 -2546 -800 0 149 400 831 448 -10838 X^2 16 9 4 1 0 1 4 9 16 60 B? -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 B? 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78
Predicted Value
0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 -1400 -1600 -1800 Predicted Value 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
29
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
0
? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 654.78 – 180.63 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
30
Existing and potential trade between India and Mexico
Product: 5208 Woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight less than 200 g/m2
India Exports To Mexico Total Exports In USD(India) (Thousand) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3658 3205 2774 2694 2569 1655 2599 6223 4611
Mexico Import From World Total Exports In USD(World) (Thousand)
1512082 1540996 1524595 1643939 1558310 1389064 1108622 1206540 978336
India Share Of Mexico Import Percentage (%)
0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.23 0.52 0.47
India Exports
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
31
7) 5208 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton but the Weight is Less Than 200 GSM. 8) The Trend of the Indian exports To Mexico Is of Constant Type. There Is steep Rise In year 2008 in Exports. The Rise was of 58%. 9) Despite of the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Stagnant Growth And fall Seen in the Exports But later There was steep rise as the developing countries economies has came out of recession period. 10) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices then also India Maintained its growth rate. 11) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 55%. 12) From 2008 as The Canadian Market And USA Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, they have shifted their manufacturing units to Mexico Which Led To Rise In Exports.
32
World Exports
1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
World Exports
4. The Above Graph Shows The Total Of World Exports To Mexico. 5. By Comparing the Total world Exports to Mexico, In the Year 2001 – 2002, The World Exports Risen About 1.87% From Last Year In which India Share Was 0.24% 6. In Year 2007 – 2008 There was Rise Of 8.11% but at that period India share In World Exports Was Maximum i.e. 52%. This may Be Due To Strong Hold as India on Its Economy and Foreign reserves During the Recession period. 7. In 2007 – 2008 there was rise of 58% In Indian Exports.
1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports World Exports
33
Forecasting By Exponential Smoothing Technique Assuming Exponential Smoothing Constant Alpha - 0.1 Forecast Of India Exports To Mexico Forecasted Value (Ft) 3658.00 3612.70 3528.83 3445.35 3357.71 3187.44 3128.60 3438.04 3555.33 27356.66
Years Value (Xt) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Error -453.00 -838.70 -834.83 -876.35 -1702.71 -588.44 3094.40 1172.96 -1026.66
MPE -14.13 -30.23 -30.99 -34.11 -102.88 -22.64 49.73 25.44 -159.83
MAPE 33.1 11.25 8.94 17.28 32.8 1.28 16.62 0.09 121.36 13.48
3658 3205 2774 2694 2569 1655 2599 6223 4611
29988.00
7000 6000 5000 4000 Ind Exports 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Estimated
34
16. In The Above Table Forecsting For The year 2010 Has Been Carried Out Using Exponential Smoothing technique. 17. The Formula Is As Under:18. Ft+1 :- ? * Xt + (1 – ?) * Ft
19. Notations 20. Ft+1 - The Forecast For The next Time period t+1. 21. Ft – The Forecast For The Present Time Period t. 22. Xt – The Actual Value For The present Time Period. 23. ? ‘- Exponential Smoothing Constant.
24. Here The Value Of Alpha is determined By Trial And Error Method Giving The Least Error. The Value Of Alpha Is 0.1. 25. From The Forcasted Figures We Can Give Below Interpretation. 26. Analysing From Year 2003 - 2004 We Can See That there is no Significant Variation In The Forecasted And Actual Figures Of India Exports to Canada. 27. But as Seen In The Year 2005, Despite of the removal Of Trade barriers There Was no significant growth in The Exports And The Exports Decreased By 23.47% from The Estimated Figures. 28. Further In The Year 2006 When The World Was Hit By Recession The Indian Exports declined By 48% From The Estimated Figures. 29. In 2007 The World Was Trying to recover From The global Financial Crisis again The Exports Increased And With the Help Of Export Promotion Schemes The Actual exports were Equal To Estimated Exports. 30. In the year 2007 and 2008 due to the introvert reforms Of Canada And USA The Exports of Mexico Risen about 58%.
35
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N Forecasted Years 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 3332
Value (Y)
XY -14632 -9615 -5548 -2694 0 1655 5198 18669 29988 18444 11477
X^2 B? 16 9 4 1 0 1 4 9 16 60 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28
B? 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00
3658 3205 2774 2694 2569 1655 2599 6223 4611
X (Years) Predicted Value 5 4288.4 6 4479.68 7 4670.96 8 4862.24 9 5053.52 10 5244.8 11 5436.08 12 5627.36 13 5818.64
Predicted Value
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Predicted Value
36
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b0 ? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 3332 + 191.28 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
37
Existing and potential trade between India and Mexico
Product : 5209 Woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight over 200 g/m2
Mexico Import India Exports To Mexico From World India Share Of Mexico Import
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 656 664822 0.10 400 748503 0.05 76 652271 0.01 24 711172 0.00 200 696724 0.03 396 544936 0.07 285 382054 0.07 343 371516 0.09 448 351744 0.13
India Exports
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
38
1) 5209 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton and Weight more Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Mexico Is of variable Type. There Is steep Rise In year 2008 in Exports. 3) Despite of the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Steep fall Seen in the Exports But later There was steep rise as the developing countries economies has came out of recession period. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices then also India Maintained its growth rate. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 36%. 6) From 2008 as The Canadian Market And USA Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, they have shifted their manufacturing units to Mexico Which Led To Rise In Exports.
39
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N Forecasted Years 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years (X) Value (Y) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 314.22
656 400 76 24 200 396 285 343 448
2828
B? XY X^2 B? -2624 16 -3.55 314.22 -1200 9 -3.55 314.22 -152 4 -3.55 314.22 -24 1 -3.55 314.22 0 0 -3.55 314.22 396 1 -3.55 314.22 570 4 -3.55 314.22 1029 9 -3.55 314.22 1792 16 -3.55 314.22 -213 60
X (Years) Predicted Value 5 296.47 6 292.92 7 289.37 8 285.82 9 282.27 10 278.72 11 275.17 12 271.62 13 268.07
Predicted Value
300 290 280 270 260 250 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
40
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b0 ? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 314.22 – 3.55 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
41
Existing and potential trade between India and Mexico
Product : 5210 Woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight less 200 g/m2
India Share Of Mexico Import
Mexico Import India Exports To Mexico From World
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD Year (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 2001 0 42402 0.00 2002 0 57164 0.00 2003 222 60430 0.37 2004 3 59328 0.01 2005 97 74613 0.13 2006 1 64397 0.00 2007 36 47539 0.08 2008 540 55475 0.97 2009 362 40079 0.90
India Exports
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
42
1) 5210 Is the HS Code For the woven Blended Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton but the Weight is Less Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Mexico Is of Alternating Type. There Is steep Rise In year 2007-2008 in Exports by about 93%. 3) Despite of the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Stagnant Growth And fall Seen in the Exports But later There was steep rise as the developing countries economies has came out of recession period. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices then also India Maintained its growth rate. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 93%. 6) From 2008 as The Canadian Market And USA Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, they have shifted their manufacturing units to Mexico Which Led To Rise In Exports.
43
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N Forecasted Years 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 140.11 X (Years) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Value (Y)
XY
0 0 222 3 97 1 36 540 362
1261
0 0 -444 -3 0 1 72 1620 1448 2694
X^2 B? B? 16 44.90 140.11 9 44.90 140.11 4 44.90 140.11 1 44.90 140.11 0 44.90 140.11 1 44.90 140.11 4 44.90 140.11 9 44.90 140.11 16 44.90 140.11 60
Predicted Value 364.61 409.51 454.41 499.31 544.21 589.11 634.01 678.91 723.81
Predicted Value
800 600 400 200 0 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
44
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b0 ? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 140.11 + 44.90 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
45
Existing and potential trade between India and Mexico
Product : 5211 Woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight over 200 g/m2
India Share Of Mexico Import
Mexico Import India Exports To Mexico From World
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD Year (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 2001 1 55835 0.00 2002 0 71295 0.00 2003 16 79646 0.02 2004 20 77937 0.03 2005 0 98316 0.00 2006 0 90459 0.00 2007 103 61299 0.17 2008 291 74356 0.39 2009 114 49366 0.23
India Exports
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
46
1) 5211 Is the HS Code For the Blended Cotton Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton and the Weight more Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Mexico Is of Growing Type. There Is steep Rise In year 2008 in Exports. 3) Despite of the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Stagnant Growth And fall Seen in the Exports But later There was steep rise as the developing countries economies has came out of recession period. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices then also India Maintained its growth rate. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 100%. 6) From 2008 as The Canadian Market And USA Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, they have shifted their manufacturing units to Mexico Which Led To Rise In Exports.
47
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N Forecasted Years 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 60.56 X (Years) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Value (Y)
XY
1 0 16 20 0 0 103 291 114
545
-4 0 -32 -20 0 0 206 873 456 1479
X^2 B? B? 16 24.65 60.56 9 24.65 60.56 4 24.65 60.56 1 24.65 60.56 0 24.65 60.56 1 24.65 60.56 4 24.65 60.56 9 24.65 60.56 16 24.65 60.56 60
Predicted Value 183.81 208.46 233.11 257.76 282.41 307.06 331.71 356.36 381.01
Predicted Value
500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
48
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b0 ? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 60.56 + 24.65 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
49
Existing and potential trade between India and USA
Product : 5208 woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight less than 200 g/m2
USA Import From World India Share Of USA Import
India Exports To USA
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand)
Total Exports In USD (thousand)
In percentage 6.39 6.87 6.45 5.46 4.85 5.48 4.56 4.18 4.43
38936 47097 43394 34985 27258 28766 21989 18205 15311
609735 685235 672292 640825 562204 525219 482135 435115 345967
India Exports
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
50
13) 5208 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton but the Weight is Less Than 200 GSM. 14) The Trend of the Indian exports To USA Is of Declining Type. There Is No Constant Rise In Exports After 2004. 15) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Rise Seen in the Exports But later The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 16) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in USA. 17) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By 55%. 18) From 2008 as The American Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
51
Total Exports
800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Exports
1. The Above Graph Shows The Total Of World Exports To USA. 2. By Comparing the Total world Exports to Mexico, In the Year 2001 – 2002, The World Exports Risen About 1.87% From Last Year In which India Share Was 0.24% 3. In Year 2007 – 2008 There was Rise Of 8.11% but at that period India share In World Exports Was Maximum i.e. 52%. This may Be Due To Strong Hold as India on Its Economy and Foreign reserves During the Recession period. 4. In 2007 – 2008 there was rise of 58% In Indian Exports.
800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ind Exports Total Exports
52
Forecasting By Exponential Smoothing Technique Assuming Exponential Smoothing Constant Alpha - 0.1 Forecast Of World Exports To USA Forecasted Years Value (Xt) Value (Ft) Error MPE MAPE 2001 38936 2002 38936 8161.00 17 94 47097 2003 39752.10 3641.90 8 85 43394 2004 40116.29 -5131.29 -15 75 34985 2005 39603.16 -12345.16 -45 63 27258 2006 38368.64 -9602.64 -33 54 28766 2007 37408.38 -15419.38 -70 44 21989 2008 35866.44 -17661.44 -97 33 18205 2009 34100.30 -18789.30 -123 11 15311 2010 32221.37 459 275941.00 304151.32 -67146.32 -357.47 51.00
50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Original Expected
53
31. In The Above Table Forecsting For The year 2010 Has Been Carried Out Using Exponential Smoothing technique. 32. The Formula Is As Under:33. Ft+1 :- ? * Xt + (1 – ?) * Ft
34. Notations 35. Ft+1 - The Forecast For The next Time period t+1. 36. Ft – The Forecast For The Present Time Period t. 37. Xt – The Actual Value For The present Time Period. 38. ? ‘- Exponential Smoothing Constant.
39. Here The Value Of Alpha is determined By Trial And Error Method Giving The Least Error. The Value Of Alpha Is 0.1. 40. From The Forcasted Figures We Can Give Below Interpretation. 41. Analysing From Year 2003 - 2004 We Can See That there is no Significant Variation In The Forecasted And Actual Figures Of India Exports to Canada. 42. But as Seen In The Year 2005, Despite of the removal Of Trade barriers There Was no significant growth in The Exports And The Exports Decreased By 23.47% from The Estimated Figures. 43. Further In The Year 2006 When The World Was Hit By Recession The Indian Exports declined By 48% From The Estimated Figures. 44. In 2007 The World Was Trying to recover From The global Financial Crisis again The Exports Increased And With the Help Of Export Promotion Schemes The Actual exports were Equal To Estimated Exports. 45. In the year 2007 and 2008 due to the introvert reforms Of Canada And USA The Exports of USA Fallen about 58%.
54
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 30660.11
Value (Y)
XY -155744 -141291 -86788 -34985 0 28766 43978 54615 61244 -230205
X^2 B? 16 9 4 1 0 1 4 9 16 60 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75
B? 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11
38936 47097 43394 34985 27258 28766 21989 18205 15311
275941
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 11476.36 2011 6 7639.61 2012 7 3802.86 2012 8 -33.89 2013 9 -3870.64 2014 10 -7707.39 2015 11 -11544.14 2016 12 -15380.89 2017 13 -19217.64
Predicted Value
20000 10000 0 -10000 -20000 -30000 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
55
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
0
? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 30660.11 – 3836.75 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
56
Existing and potential trade between India and USA
Product : 5209 woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight over 200 g/m2
India Share Of USA Import In percentage 4.02 5.74 5.49 4.60 6.14 6.50 5.47 6.93 8.53
India Exports To USA
USA Import From World
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) 23379 581697 34704 604804 27196 495353 23186 503590 27341 445554 23694 364646 20453 373935 22756 328506 17769 208343
India Exports
40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
57
1) 5209 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton and the Weight more Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To USA Is of Decreasing Type. There Is No Constant Rise In Exports After 2002. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Rise Seen in the Exports But later The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in USA. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. USA was most hit by recession. The Exports decreased by almost 25%. 6) From 2008 as The American Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
58
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) Value (Y) XY X^2 B? B? -4 23379 -93516 16 -1187.70 24497.56 -3 34704 -104112 9 -1187.70 24497.56 -2 4 -1187.70 24497.56 27196 -54392 -1 1 -1187.70 24497.56 23186 -23186 0 0 0 -1187.70 24497.56 27341 1 23694 1 -1187.70 24497.56 23694 2 40906 4 -1187.70 24497.56 20453 3 68268 9 -1187.70 24497.56 22756 4 71076 16 -1187.70 24497.56 17769 0 220478 -71262 60 0 24497.56
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 18559.06 2011 6 17371.36 2012 7 16183.66 2012 8 14995.96 2013 9 13808.26 2014 10 12620.56 2015 11 11432.86 2016 12 10245.16 2017 13 9057.46
Predicted Value
20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
59
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b? (? X ) ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X ?X ? n
1 2 2 2 2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
? Y ? b1 X ? 0
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 24497.56 – 1187.70 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
60
Existing and potential trade between India and USA
Product : 5210 Woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight less 200 g/m2
India Share Of USA Import
India Exports To USA
USA Import From World
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 3497 144729 2.42 2186 204341 1.07 2059 176044 1.17 3734 208436 1.79 4202 186783 2.25 3195 176205 1.81 2456 136250 1.80 1711 99781 1.71 506 59531 0.85
India Exports
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
India Exports
61
1) 5210 Is the HS Code For the Blennded Cotton Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton but the Weight is Less Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To USA Is of mirror image Type. There Is No Constant Rise In Exports After 2004. 3) In The Year 2001 Despite of the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was no Rise Seen in the Exports and later also The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers in 2005 Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in USA. 5) From 2005 to 2007, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused but then also the exports keep on declining . 6) From 2008 till today The American Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
62
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) Value (Y) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 2616.22
3497 2186 2059 3734 4202 3195 2456 1711 506
23546
XY X^2 B? B? -13988 16 -218.90 2616.22 -6558 9 -218.90 2616.22 -4118 4 -218.90 2616.22 -3734 1 -218.90 2616.22 0 0 -218.90 2616.22 3195 1 -218.90 2616.22 4912 4 -218.90 2616.22 5133 9 -218.90 2616.22 2024 16 -218.90 2616.22 -13134 60
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 1521.72 2011 6 1302.82 2012 7 1083.92 2012 8 865.02 2013 9 646.12 2014 10 427.22 2015 11 208.32 2016 12 -10.58 2017 13 -229.48
Predicted Value
2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
63
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b? (? X ) ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X ?X ? n
1 2 2 2 2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
? Y ? b1 X ? 0
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 2616.22 – 218.90 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
64
EXISTING AND POTENTIAL TRADE BETWEEN INDIA AND USA
Product: 5211 woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight over 200g/m 2
India Share Of Mexico Import
Mexico Import India Exports To Mexico From World
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 2394 162966 1.47 3181 177433 1.79 5281 148534 3.56 1439 141507 1.02 2387 112844 2.12 2254 104515 2.16 4630 102365 4.52 2177 90712 2.40 660 61995 1.06
India Exports
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
65
1) 5211 Is the HS Code For the Blended Cotton Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton and Weight more Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To USA Is of ups and down Type. There Is No Constant Rise In Exports After 2004. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Rise Seen in the Exports But later The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in USA. 5) From 2006 to 2007, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By 51%. 6) From 2008 as The American Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
66
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) Value (Y) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 2711.44
2394 3181 5281 1439 2387 2254 4630 2177 660
24403
XY X^2 B? B? -9576 16 -173.92 2711.44 -9543 9 -173.92 2711.44 -10562 4 -173.92 2711.44 -1439 1 -173.92 2711.44 0 0 -173.92 2711.44 2254 1 -173.92 2711.44 9260 4 -173.92 2711.44 6531 9 -173.92 2711.44 2640 16 -173.92 2711.44 -10435 60
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 1841.84 2011 6 1667.92 2012 7 1494 2012 8 1320.08 2013 9 1146.16 2014 10 972.24 2015 11 798.32 2016 12 624.4 2017 13 450.48
Predicted Value
2000 1500 1000 500 0 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
67
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
0
? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 2711.44 – 173.92 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
68
India Exports of 5208 to Canada, Mexico and USA.
2009 2008 2007 2006 CANADA 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Mexico
The Above Graph Shows The Indian Exports Of Product 5208 Till Date. As We Can See That The Maximum Share Of Exports Was Made In USA But As The Time Passes The Growth For USA Is Declining And The Growth In Mexico Is Increasing. After 2007 the exports of 5208 is steeply declining.
As Mexico Is a Developing Nation and developed countries such as Canada and USA have Shifted Their Production Units to Mexico. The Imports in Mexico are Increasing Nowadays.
Moreover The Value Of American Exports Is Very Much High Compare To Canada Or Mexico, But Its Declining Day By Day. And The Rate At which The Exports Is Declining Is More Than The Rate At Which The Exports Is Growing In Mexican Countries.
Thus Industries Should Encourage The Exports In Mexican Countries. Also they should try To Collaborate with the American Countries and Encourage Them to Import Goods via Mexican Countries. As there is Free Trade Zone between These Three Countries and Maximum Imports of Canada and America Is From Mexico.
69
The Upcoming Trend of 5208 in NAFTA Countries.
2017 2016 2015 2014 CANADA 2013 2012 2012 2011 2010 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA MEXICO
In The above Graph by applying the regression Analysis the Future Estimates Till 2017 Is Obtained. As Shown from This After 2012 The Exports to USA Will Be very less and the Maximum Market Will Be captured By Mexico. Also After 2012 Exports To Canada Will Also Start Declining. This Shows That the Emerging Economies are Growing Very rapidly and There GDP Is Also Increasing as the Production Units are Shifted Due To Cheap Land and Labor. Mathematically The Future Trends Are Showing Rise In Mexican Imports But there Are Various Other Factor Such as Trade Tariff, Currency fluctuation Rate, Economic Conditions, Political Conditions And Many More Which Will affect The Picture Of Imports To These Countries.
Remark:The Figures Shown Above Are Obtained Mathematically. So This Is Not the True depiction Of Exports Because There May Be Some Economic Reforms to Regulate the Exports. But As Per The Last Year Exports The Trend Obtained For 2017 Are As Above.
70
India Exports Of 5209 To Canada, Mexico And USA.
2009 2008 2007 2006 CANADA 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Mexico
The Above Graph Shows The Indian Exports Of Product 5209 Till Date. As We Can See That The Maximum Share Of Exports Was Made In USA But As The Time Passes The Growth For USA Is Declining And The Growth In Mexico Is Increasing. After 2007 the exports of 5209 is steeply declining.
As Mexico Is a Developing Nation and developed countries such as Canada and USA have Shifted Their Production Units to Mexico. The Imports in Mexico are Increasing Nowadays.
Moreover The Value Of American Exports Is Very Much High Compare To Canada Or Mexico, But Its Declining Day By Day. And The Rate At which The Exports Is Declining Is More Than The Rate At Which The Exports Is Growing In Mexican Countries.
Thus Industries Should Encourage The Exports In Mexican Countries. Also they should try To Collaborate with the American Countries and Encourage Them to Import Goods via Mexican Countries. As there is Free Trade Zone between These Three Countries and Maximum Imports of Canada and America Is From Mexico.
71
The Upcoming Trend of 5209 in NAFTA Countries.
2017 2016 2015 2014 CANADA 2013 2012 2012 2011 2010 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA MEXICO
In The above Graph by applying the regression Analysis the Future Estimates Till 2017 Is Obtained. As Shown from This After 2012 The Exports to USA Will Be very less and the Maximum Market Will Be captured By Mexico. Also After 2012 Exports To Canada Will Also Start Declining. This Shows That the Emerging Economies are Growing Very rapidly and There GDP Is Also Increasing as the Production Units are Shifted Due To Cheap Land and Labor. Mathematically The Future Trends Are Showing Rise In Mexican Imports But there Are Various Other Factor Such as Trade Tariff, Currency fluctuation Rate, Economic Conditions, Political Conditions And Many More Which Will affect The Picture Of Imports To These Countries.
Remark:The Figures Shown Above Are Obtained Mathematically. So This Is Not the True depiction Of Exports Because There May Be Some Economic Reforms to Regulate the Exports. But As Per The Last Year Exports The Trend Obtained For 2017 Are As Above.
72
India Exports Of 5210 To Canada, Mexico And USA.
2009 2008 2007 2006 CANADA 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Mexico
The Above Graph Shows The Indian Exports Of Product 5210 Till Date. As We Can See That The Maximum Share Of Exports Was Made In USA But As The Time Passes The Growth For USA Is Declining And The Growth In Mexico Is Increasing. After 2007 the exports of 5210 is steeply declining.
As Mexico Is a Developing Nation and developed countries such as Canada and USA have Shifted Their Production Units to Mexico. The Imports in Mexico are Increasing Nowadays.
Moreover The Value Of American Exports Is Very Much High Compare To Canada Or Mexico, But Its Declining Day By Day. And The Rate At which The Exports Is Declining Is More Than The Rate At Which The Exports Is Growing In Mexican Countries.
Thus Industries Should Encourage The Exports In Mexican Countries. Also they should try To Collaborate with the American Countries and Encourage Them to Import Goods via Mexican Countries. As there is Free Trade Zone between These Three Countries and Maximum Imports of Canada and America Is From Mexico.
73
The Upcoming Trend of 5210 in NAFTA Countries.
2017 2016 2015 2014 CANADA 2013 2012 2012 2011 2010 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA MEXICO
In The above Graph by applying the regression Analysis the Future Estimates Till 2017 Is Obtained. As Shown from This After 2012 The Exports to USA Will Be very less and the Maximum Market Will Be captured By Mexico. Also After 2012 Exports To Canada Will Also Start Declining. This Shows That the Emerging Economies are Growing Very rapidly and There GDP Is Also Increasing as the Production Units are Shifted Due To Cheap Land and Labor. Mathematically The Future Trends Are Showing Rise In Mexican Imports But there Are Various Other Factor Such as Trade Tariff, Currency fluctuation Rate, Economic Conditions, Political Conditions And Many More Which Will affect The Picture Of Imports To These Countries.
Remark:The Figures Shown Above Are Obtained Mathematically. So This Is Not the True depiction Of Exports Because There May Be Some Economic Reforms to Regulate the Exports. But As Per The Last Year Exports The Trend Obtained For 2017 Are As Above.
74
India Exports Of 5211 To Canada, Mexico And USA.
2009 2008 2007 2006 CANADA 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Mexico
The Above Graph Shows The Indian Exports Of Product 5210 Till Date. As We Can See That The Maximum Share Of Exports Was Made In USA But As The Time Passes The Growth For USA Is Declining And The Growth In Mexico Is Increasing. After 2007 the exports of 5210 is steeply declining.
As Mexico Is a Developing Nation and developed countries such as Canada and USA have Shifted Their Production Units to Mexico. The Imports in Mexico are Increasing Nowadays.
Moreover The Value Of American Exports Is Very Much High Compare To Canada Or Mexico, But Its Declining Day By Day. And The Rate At which The Exports Is Declining Is More Than The Rate At Which The Exports Is Growing In Mexican Countries.
Thus Industries Should Encourage The Exports In Mexican Countries. Also they should try To Collaborate with the American Countries and Encourage Them to Import Goods via Mexican Countries. As there is Free Trade Zone between These Three Countries and Maximum Imports of Canada and America Is From Mexico.
75
The Upcoming Trend of 5211 in NAFTA Countries.
2017 2016 2015 2014 CANADA 2013 2012 2012 2011 2010 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA MEXICO
In The above Graph by applying the regression Analysis the Future Estimates Till 2017 Is Obtained. As Shown from This After 2012 The Exports to USA Will Be very less and the Maximum Market Will Be captured By Mexico. Also After 2012 Exports To Canada Will Also Start Declining. This Shows That the Emerging Economies are Growing Very rapidly and There GDP Is Also Increasing as the Production Units are Shifted Due To Cheap Land and Labor. Mathematically The Future Trends Are Showing Rise In Mexican Imports But there Are Various Other Factor Such as Trade Tariff, Currency fluctuation Rate, Economic Conditions, Political Conditions And Many More Which Will affect The Picture Of Imports To These Countries.
Remark:The Figures Shown Above Are Obtained Mathematically. So This Is Not the True depiction Of Exports Because There May Be Some Economic Reforms to Regulate the Exports. But As Per The Last Year Exports The Trend Obtained For 2017 Are As Above.
76
77
doc_888541476.docx
Project On Denim Forecast In Nafta Countries
A STUDY TO ASSESS EXPORT POTENTIAL IN NAFTA (NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT) COUNTRIES
SUBMITTED BY SATISH KSHATRIYA: 1072592002 SUBMITTED TO
Indus Institute of Technology & Engineering- Ahmedabad, As Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Post Graduate in Master in Business Administration (1 June 2011-1 July2011) Under the Guidance of Dr. D.K. JAIN (CHIRIPAL GROUP OF COMPANIES) & Prof. Garima Mishra
1
Declaration by the Student
We hereby declare that this project report titled “A study to assess export potential in NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)” has been submitted by us for the requirements for the Post Graduate in Master & Business Administration (2010-12).
This is the result of original work carried out by us. This report has not been submitted anywhere else for award of any other degree/diploma.
Satish Kshatriya
2
Acknowledgement
????????????????????????
Someone has rightly said, “No one can live in isolation”. It is true that every individual needs the help of others in every work he does.
???????????????????????? First of all we would like to express our gratitude to Dr. D.K. Jain (Director Of Chiripal Group Of Companies) and whose cordial attitude and valuable guidance has help us for our successful completion of this project.
We are greatly thankful and express our sincere regards to Dr. Ashish Joshi (Head Of Department, MBA), and Ms Garima Mishra for their invaluable assistance in major part of our project work. They had been informative, supportive and completely devoted during the entire training period of our study.
During my Summer Training so many people helped me directly or indirectly, I heartily thankful to all of them and I would like to thank all people and colleagues who helped us directly or indirectly towards the completion of project report. Last but not the least, it is worth a mention the loyalty and sincerely devoted for completion of this project.
With sincere regards, Satish Kshatriya
3
Executive summary
Nandan Denim is a part of 'Chiripal Group' which has been into the textile business for over three decades. Companies of the group are involved in the business of Processing, Weaving, Knitting and Petrochemicals. Started off as a Private Ltd Company, it is now a Public Limited company since year 2004. The total employee strength of the company is over 1000 creative people and over 5000 for the group. The group is located in the textile hub of the country - "AHMEDABAD". The region is rich in cotton produce - the most important component for denim especially. It is close to Sea Port & financial capital of India - 'Mumbai'. An overnight journey from factory to Port adds to the quick turnaround time required today in the ever-changing Fashion Industry. Nandan Denim is the latest venture of the group, started earlier in the decade & exclusively into production and export of Denim Fabrics. We are producing around 30 Million mtr of Denim right now with plans of further increasing the capacity to 40 Million Mtrs per Annum. The company focus on quality is supported by the investments made in the best machinery Dyeing & Sizing by Sucker Muller of Germany, High Speed Looms by Tsudakoma & Toyoda of Japan and best Finishing Ranges by Monforts of Germany & Morrison of US. The testing labs are equipped with the latest instruments to ensure immaculate quality control and complete customer satisfaction. The company is ISO 9001 & Oeko-tex certified - a step towards being more organized and responsible citizen. The product range comprise of specialty articles like Cotton-Lurex, Cotton-Tencel, CottonModal, Colored Wefts & Colored Denim, in addition to the 100% Cotton article in Rings / Slubs / Crosshatch / Open End / Multicount / Uneven Ring. The range also includes Cotton Stretch & Cotton Poly-Stretch articles. Various shades in Indigo, Black, Toppings, Bottoming & combination of various colors are also part of our development efforts.
4
Company Background
CHIRIPAL GROUP, having turnover of 245 million US$, is one of the largest manufacturer and exporter of various types of Textile products from India. We are equipped with state-of-the-art Spinning, Weaving, Dyeing, Printing, Processing & Garmenting facilities. The group consists of different divisions namely Process Division, Woven Division, Knitting Division, Polar Fleece Division, Flock Division, Cotton Hosiery Division, Apparel Division, Home Furnishing Division, Denim & 100% Cotton Bottom weight fabrics/Khakis Division. Embroidery Division and Chemical Division located at Ahmedabad in India. In India, we have established a strong position as one of the leading integrated textile house manufacturing & supplying fibre to fabrics under one roof. We also have a significant presence in the international markets as well. We are currently exporting textiles & garments to various international Brands and wholesalers in Europe, USA, Canada, South America, Far East, Middle East, Gulf & African countries. We are specialized in manufacturing & supplying the following types of textile items :? Dyed & Printed fabrics made from 100% Cotton, 100% Polyester & its Blends with Cotton, Viscose etc. ? Printed Fabrics like Lazer Print, Ozone Print, Pestle colors Print, Foil Print, Zari etc. (Chadri Print / Irani Items) ? Chiffon Printed fabrics, Voile Printed Fabrics, Gorget Brasso Printed fabrics, Capital Silk Printed fabrics etc. ? All types of Lapet & Butta Printed Fabrics. ? 30’s & 60’s 100% Cotton Printed Fabrics. ? 100% Cotton White-Cream Fabrics & Printed Shirting Fabrics. ? Denim Fabrics & Denim Garments and 100% Cotton Bottom Weight & blended fabrics of different weaves, dyes, combination of yarns, weights etc. These fabrics find applications in various outfits and garments. The range of fabrics include denim, twills, stretch, bull denim, broken twills. We have complete set up of state-of-the-art imported CBR (Continuous Bleaching Range) & CDR (Continuous Dyeing Range) for consistent, quality & satisfactory dyeing. ? Flock fabrics include plain, Embossed, Printed for Home Textiles, Seat Covers, Curtains & Fancy Dress & Shirting. ? Bed Sheets – Flat Sheets, Fitted Sheets, Duvets & many more items made of 100% Micro Polyester and Warp Knit. ? Wide range of Embroidery Fabrics. ? Dyed & Printed Knitted Fabrics made from 100% Cotton, Polyester & its Blends. We have the most popular Circular Knitting M/c name Dia-30”. ? Dyed & Printed Warp Knitting Fabrics – These are mainly for Curtains, Duvet Covers, and Seat Covers for Automotive Industry & Upholstery.
5
? Polar Fleece Fabrics, Spun polar fleece, Micro polar fleece and Drop needle polar fleece in 140 to 350€ GSM range. ? Cotton Hosiery like Cotton Single Jersey, Cotton Lycra, Cotton waffle Knit, Pique Fabric, 1/1 Rib Fabric, Interlock Fabric, Cotton Viscose Fabric, Cotton Polyester Fabric, Viscose lycra fabric, Cotton Polar Fabric, etc. Nandan Exim Ltd. is the latest venture of the group, started earlier in the decade. We are a vertically integrated mill with latest machinery used, from Spinning up to Finish fabric. We exclusively produce and export primarily Denim and few Non-Denim qualities for reputed end customers like Khols,Walmart, Chico’s, Dollar Plus, JC Penny, PVH , Mark’s & Spencer, UCB, Tesco , C & A , H & M , BHS ,Gymboree And Many More. We are producing around 40 Million mtr and expanding to 50 million meter of fabrics in Denim.
6
What Is NAFTA?
? It’s a Trilateral trade Bloc Comprised Of Below three countries.
NAFTA CANADA
? ?
USA
MEXICO
The Combined GDP Is 17,617,989 Trillion USD. (First in all the Trade blocs). It is Formed On 1st Jan. 1994 By US President George W. Bush, Candaian President Brian Mulroney and Mexico President Carlos Salinas.
?
Its Goal Was To Eliminate Trade Barriers, Tariff and Non – Tariff Barriers Among These Countries to encourage Trade Of Goods and Employment.
?
Its Head Offices Are Located in Ottawa (Canada), Washington D.C. (USA) and Mexico.
?
NAFTA Also Has Two Supplements. o NAAEC (North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation) o NAALC (North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation) Formation Of NAFTA Also Lead To certain criticism As Under. o Canadian Disputes Regarding The the provision that if something is sold even once as a commodity, the government cannot stop its sale in the future. o Change In Income Trust Taxation. o US Deindustrialization. o Impact On Mexican farmers. Apart From All These Criticism Its One Of The Most Successful And Wealthiest trade Bloc With Maximum Opportunities.
?
?
7
About Canada
? ? ? ? Worlds 10th ranked country as per The GDP Of All The nations. (1.600 Trillion USD) Currency Canadian Dollar. Population :- 34,030,589 Among 37th Rank All over the World. Age Structure
0 – 14 Years - 27,36,737 Male And 26,02,342 Females – 15.7% o 16 – 64 Years – 1,17,76,611 Male And 1,15,17,972 Females – 68.5% o 65 And Above – 23,72,356 Male And 30,24,571 Females – 15.9% ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? The population below poverty line is 10.8%. Exports – 406.8 Billion USD (Maximum To USA) Imports – 406.4 Billion USD ( Maximum From USA) Canada Is A G8 Member and also a Member Of WTO,OECD And NAFTA. In Canada Service Industry Adds To maximum GDP (Retail, Finance, Education, Health, etc). Also It Is one Of The Prominent Exporter Of Energy. Canada has Flexible Organization Culture And The People there Are From variety Of Ethnic groups. Trade relations of Canada Is very Much Strong With US And They both Encourage Free trade and maximum Trade Is Between Commodity. Manufacturers Have Been Attracted to Canada Due o Highly Educated Population With lower labour Cost than US. Canada's publicly funded health care system is also an important attraction, as it exempts companies from the high health insurance costs they must pay in the United States.8
About United States
? ? ? The economy of the United States is the world's largest national economy. Its nominal GDP was estimated to be nearly $14.7 trillion in 2010. The 2010 U.S. Census reported 308,745,538 residents, making the United States the third most populous country in the world. Population :? ? ? ? ? 0-14 years: 20.2% (male 31,639,127/female 30,305,704) 15–64 years: 67% (male 102,665,043/female 103,129,321) 65 years and over: 12.8% (male 16,901,232/female 22,571,696)
Its three largest trading partners as of 2010 are Canada, China and Mexico. Historically, the U.S. economy has maintained a stable overall GDP growth rate, a low unemployment rate, and high levels of research and capital investment funded by both national and, because of decreasing saving rates, increasingly by foreign investors. It has been the world's largest national economy since the 1870 and remains the world's largest manufacturer, representing 19% of the world's manufacturing output. In 2009, consumer spending coupled with government health care spending constituted 70% of the American economy. About 30% of the entire world's millionaire population reside in the United States (in 2009). Large foreign economies like China, Japan and the member states of the European Union own huge dollar reserve so there is a fear that they will move away from the dollar. China's reserves are more than $2 trillion, the world's largest. China owns an estimated $1.6 trillion of U.S. securities. In 2007, the median real annual household income rose 1.3% to $50,233, according to the Census Bureau. The real median earnings of men who worked full time, year-round climbed between 2006 and 2007, from $43,460 to $45,113. For women, the corresponding increase was from $33,437 to $35,102. The median income per household member was $26,036 in 2006.
? ?
? ? ?
? ?
9
About Mexico
? ? ? The economy of Mexico is the 13th largest in the world in nominal terms and the 11th by purchasing power parity, according to the World Bank. Mexico was one of the Latin American nations most affected by the 2008 recession with its Gross Domestic Product contracting by more than 6%. As an export-oriented economy, more than 90% of Mexican trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more than 40 countries, including the European Union, Japan, Israel, and much of Central and South America. ? The most influential FTA is the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which came into effect in 1994, and was signed in 1992 by the governments of the United States, Canada and Mexico. In 2006, trade with Mexico's two northern partners accounted for almost 90% of its exports and 55% of its imports. ? ? The first step toward the liberalization of trade was Mexico's signature of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1986. During the Salinas administration many state-owned companies were privatized. In 1992, the North American Free Trade Agreement was signed between the United States, Canada and Mexico, and after the signature of two additional supplements on environments and labor standards, it came into effect on January 1, 1994. ? ? ? ? ? 0-14 years: 29.1% 15-64 years: 64.6% 65 years and over: 6.2% The Tropic of Cancer effectively divides the country into temperate and tropical zones. Mexico has pronounced wet and dry seasons. Most of the country experiences a rainy season from June to mid-October and significantly less rain during the remainder of the year.
10
Demographics Comparison of Countries Of NAFTA.
Sr. No. 1 2 3
80.00%
Age 0 – 14 Yrs 16 – 64 Yrs 65 And Above
USA 20.2% 67% 12.8%
MEXICO 29.1% 64.6% 6.2%
CANADA 15.7% 68.5% 15.9%
70.00%
16 - 64 Yrs, 67%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
0-14 Yrs, 20.20% 20.00% 65 & Above, 12.80% 10.00%
0.00% 0-14 Yrs 16 - 64 Yrs 65 & Above
11
Existing and potential trade between India and Canada
Product : 5208 woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight less than 200 g/m2
India Exports To Canada Total Exports In USD(India) (Thousand) 2631 3933 2482 2509 3277 2084 2665 3233 2752 Canada Import From World Total Exports In USD(World) (Thousand) 81094 84472 78493 76805 65460 57777 60184 55691 41052 India Share Of Canada Import Percentage (%) 3.24 4.66 3.16 3.27 5.01 3.61 4.43 5.81 6.70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
India Exports
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
India Exports
12
1) 5208 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton but the Weight is Less Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Canada Is of Alternating Type. There Is No Constant Rise and fall In the Exports. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Rise Seen in the Exports But later The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in Canada. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 55%. 6) From 2008 as The Canadian Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
13
World Exports
90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
World Exports
1. The Above Graph Shows The Total Of World Exports To Canada. 2. By Comparing the Total world Exports to Canada, In the Year 2001 – 2002, The World Exports Risen About 4% From Last Year In which India Share Was 3.24% 3. In Year 2008 – 2009 There was Steep Downfall Of 26% but at that period India share In World Exports Was Maximum i.e. 6%. This may Be Due To Strong Hold Os India on Its Economy and Foreign reserves During the Recession period.
90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports World Exports
14
Forecasting By Exponential Smoothing Technique Assuming Exponential Smoothing Constant Alpha(?) - 0.1 Forecast Of India Exports To Canada Forecasted Years Value (Xt) Value (Ft) 2001 2631 2002 3933 2003 2482 2004 2509 2005 3277 2006 2084 2007 2665 2008 3233 2009 2752 2010 25566.00
2631.00 2761.20 2733.28 2710.85 2767.47 2699.12 2695.71 2749.44 2749.69 21748.06
Error 1302.00 -279.20 -224.28 566.15 -683.47 -34.12 537.29 2.56
MPE MAPE 33.10 33.1 -11.25 11.25 -8.94 8.94 17.28 17.28 -32.80 32.8 -1.28 1.28 16.62 16.62 0.09 0.09 121.36 1186.94 12.83 13.48
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Actual Forecast
15
1. In The Above Table Forecasting For The year 2010 Has Been Carried Out Using Exponential Smoothing technique. 2. The Formula Is As Under:3. Ft+1 :- ? * Xt + (1 – ?) * Ft
4. Notations 5. Ft+1 - The Forecast For The next Time period t+1. 6. Ft – The Forecast For The Present Time Period t. 7. Xt – The Actual Value For The present Time Period. 8. ? ‘- Exponential Smoothing Constant.
9. Here The Value Of Alpha is determined By Trial And Error Method Giving The Least Error. The Value Of Alpha Is 0.1. 10. From The Forecasted Figures We Can Give Below Interpretation. 11. Analyzing From Year 2003 - 2004 We Can See That there is no Significant Variation In The Forecasted And Actual Figures Of India Exports to Canada. 12. But as Seen In The Year 2005, Due To the removal Of Trade barriers There Was exponential Rise in The Exports And The Exports Increased By 17.27% from The Estimated Figures. 13. Further in the Year 2006 When the World Was Hit by Recession the Indian Exports declined by 24.69% From the Estimated Figures. 14. In 2007 The World Was Trying to recover from the global Financial Crisis again The Exports increased and with the Help of Export Promotion Schemes the Actual exports were Equal to Estimated Exports. 15. Later On the alternate Rise and Fall in the Exports Continued a Still It Is trying To Stabilize Its Position.
16
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 2840.67
Value (Y) 2631 3933 2482 2509 3277 2084 2665 3233 2752 25566
XY X^2 B? -10524 16 -27.92 -11799 9 -27.92 -4964 4 -27.92 -2509 1 -27.92 0 0 -27.92 2084 1 -27.92 5330 4 -27.92 9699 9 -27.92 11008 16 -27.92 -1675 60
B? 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67 2840.67
Forecasted Years X (Years) 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Predicted Value 2701.07 2673.15 2645.23 2617.31 2589.39 2561.47 2533.55 2505.63 2477.71
Predicted Value
2750 2700 2650 2600 2550 2500 2450 2400 2350 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
17
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
? Y ? b1 X ? 0
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 2840.67 – 29.67 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
18
Existing and potential trade between India and Canada
Product : 5209 woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight over 200 g/m2
India Share Of Canada Import
India Exports To Canada
Canada Import From World
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 2332 141441 1.65 1870 137417 1.36 1582 123482 1.28 1240 99463 1.25 1141 75702 1.51 794 63746 1.25 1264 58548 2.16 1039 50274 2.07 983 38429 2.56
Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand)
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand)
19
1) 5209 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton but the Weight over than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Canada Is of declining Type. There Is No Constant Rise and fall In the Exports. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Scheme the also There was no Rise Seen in the Exports But later also The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in Canada. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 37%. 6) From 2008 as The Canadian Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
20
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) Value (Y) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 1360.56
2332 1870 1582 1240 1141 794 1264 1039 983
12245
B? XY X^2 B? -9328 16 -149.52 1360.56 -5610 9 -149.52 1360.56 -3164 4 -149.52 1360.56 -1240 1 -149.52 1360.56 0 0 -149.52 1360.56 794 1 -149.52 1360.56 2528 4 -149.52 1360.56 3117 9 -149.52 1360.56 3932 16 -149.52 1360.56 -8971 60
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 612.96 2011 6 463.44 2012 7 313.92 2012 8 164.4 2013 9 14.88 2014 10 -134.64 2015 11 -284.16 2016 12 -433.68 2017 13 -583.2
Predicted Value
800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
21
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
? Y ? b1 X ? 0
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 1360.56 – 149.52 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
22
Existing and potential trade between India and Canada
Product : 5210 Woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight less 200 g/m2
Canada Import From World India Share Of Canada Import
India Exports To Canada
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 693 25300 2.74 399 21357 1.87 202 20846 0.97 306 24420 1.25 172 20630 0.83 545 13562 4.02 57 10817 0.53 88 10473 0.84 46 9384 0.49
Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand)
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand)
23
1) 5210 Is the HS Code For the woven Blended Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton and Weight less than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Canada Is of declining Type. There Is No Constant Rise and fall In the Exports. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Scheme also There was no Rise Seen in the Exports But later also The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in Canada. 5) In the year 2005 – 2006 there was steep rise in the exports of manmade fibers. The rise was exponential and it was 68%. 6) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 37%. 7) From 2008 as The Canadian Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
24
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) Value (Y) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 278.67
693 399 202 306 172 545 57 88 46 2508
B? XY X^2 B? -2772 16 -59.53 278.67 -1197 9 -59.53 278.67 -404 4 -59.53 278.67 -306 1 -59.53 278.67 0 0 -59.53 278.67 545 1 -59.53 278.67 114 4 -59.53 278.67 264 9 -59.53 278.67 184 16 -59.53 278.67 -3572 60
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 -18.98 2011 6 -78.51 2012 7 -138.04 2012 8 -197.57 2013 9 -257.1 2014 10 -316.63 2015 11 -376.16 2016 12 -435.69 2017 13 -495.22
Predicted Value
0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 Predicted Value 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
25
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b? (? X ) ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X ?X ? n
1 2 2 2 2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
0
? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 278.67 – 59.53 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
26
Existing and potential trade between India and Canada
Product : 5211 Woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight over 200 g/m2
India Share Of canada Import
India Exports To Canada Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand) 1055 1700 1273 800 327 149 200 277 112
Canada Import From World Total Exports In USD (thousand) 34993 33983 28478 23154 20768 15261 13239 12493 8338
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
In percentage 3.01 5.00 4.47 3.46 1.57 0.98 1.51 2.22 1.34
Ind Exports
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ind Exports
27
1) 5211 Is the HS Code For the woven Blended Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton and Weight more than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Canada Is of declining Type. There Is No Constant Rise and fall In the Exports. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Scheme also There was Rise Seen in the Exports But later The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in Canada. 5) From 2002 – 2006 there was constant downfall of 91% from 2002 to 2006. 6) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 46%. 7) From 2008 as The Canadian Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
28
Trend Analysis By Least Square method Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N Forecasted Years 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 654.78 X (Years) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Predicted Value -248.37 -429 -609.63 -790.26 -970.89 -1151.52 -1332.15 -1512.78 -1693.41 Value (Y) 1055 1700 1273 800 327 149 200 277 112 5893 XY -4220 -5100 -2546 -800 0 149 400 831 448 -10838 X^2 16 9 4 1 0 1 4 9 16 60 B? -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 -180.63 B? 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78 654.78
Predicted Value
0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 -1400 -1600 -1800 Predicted Value 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
29
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
0
? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 654.78 – 180.63 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
30
Existing and potential trade between India and Mexico
Product: 5208 Woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight less than 200 g/m2
India Exports To Mexico Total Exports In USD(India) (Thousand) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 3658 3205 2774 2694 2569 1655 2599 6223 4611
Mexico Import From World Total Exports In USD(World) (Thousand)
1512082 1540996 1524595 1643939 1558310 1389064 1108622 1206540 978336
India Share Of Mexico Import Percentage (%)
0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.23 0.52 0.47
India Exports
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
31
7) 5208 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton but the Weight is Less Than 200 GSM. 8) The Trend of the Indian exports To Mexico Is of Constant Type. There Is steep Rise In year 2008 in Exports. The Rise was of 58%. 9) Despite of the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Stagnant Growth And fall Seen in the Exports But later There was steep rise as the developing countries economies has came out of recession period. 10) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices then also India Maintained its growth rate. 11) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 55%. 12) From 2008 as The Canadian Market And USA Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, they have shifted their manufacturing units to Mexico Which Led To Rise In Exports.
32
World Exports
1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
World Exports
4. The Above Graph Shows The Total Of World Exports To Mexico. 5. By Comparing the Total world Exports to Mexico, In the Year 2001 – 2002, The World Exports Risen About 1.87% From Last Year In which India Share Was 0.24% 6. In Year 2007 – 2008 There was Rise Of 8.11% but at that period India share In World Exports Was Maximum i.e. 52%. This may Be Due To Strong Hold as India on Its Economy and Foreign reserves During the Recession period. 7. In 2007 – 2008 there was rise of 58% In Indian Exports.
1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports World Exports
33
Forecasting By Exponential Smoothing Technique Assuming Exponential Smoothing Constant Alpha - 0.1 Forecast Of India Exports To Mexico Forecasted Value (Ft) 3658.00 3612.70 3528.83 3445.35 3357.71 3187.44 3128.60 3438.04 3555.33 27356.66
Years Value (Xt) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Error -453.00 -838.70 -834.83 -876.35 -1702.71 -588.44 3094.40 1172.96 -1026.66
MPE -14.13 -30.23 -30.99 -34.11 -102.88 -22.64 49.73 25.44 -159.83
MAPE 33.1 11.25 8.94 17.28 32.8 1.28 16.62 0.09 121.36 13.48
3658 3205 2774 2694 2569 1655 2599 6223 4611
29988.00
7000 6000 5000 4000 Ind Exports 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Estimated
34
16. In The Above Table Forecsting For The year 2010 Has Been Carried Out Using Exponential Smoothing technique. 17. The Formula Is As Under:18. Ft+1 :- ? * Xt + (1 – ?) * Ft
19. Notations 20. Ft+1 - The Forecast For The next Time period t+1. 21. Ft – The Forecast For The Present Time Period t. 22. Xt – The Actual Value For The present Time Period. 23. ? ‘- Exponential Smoothing Constant.
24. Here The Value Of Alpha is determined By Trial And Error Method Giving The Least Error. The Value Of Alpha Is 0.1. 25. From The Forcasted Figures We Can Give Below Interpretation. 26. Analysing From Year 2003 - 2004 We Can See That there is no Significant Variation In The Forecasted And Actual Figures Of India Exports to Canada. 27. But as Seen In The Year 2005, Despite of the removal Of Trade barriers There Was no significant growth in The Exports And The Exports Decreased By 23.47% from The Estimated Figures. 28. Further In The Year 2006 When The World Was Hit By Recession The Indian Exports declined By 48% From The Estimated Figures. 29. In 2007 The World Was Trying to recover From The global Financial Crisis again The Exports Increased And With the Help Of Export Promotion Schemes The Actual exports were Equal To Estimated Exports. 30. In the year 2007 and 2008 due to the introvert reforms Of Canada And USA The Exports of Mexico Risen about 58%.
35
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N Forecasted Years 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 3332
Value (Y)
XY -14632 -9615 -5548 -2694 0 1655 5198 18669 29988 18444 11477
X^2 B? 16 9 4 1 0 1 4 9 16 60 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28 191.28
B? 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00 3332.00
3658 3205 2774 2694 2569 1655 2599 6223 4611
X (Years) Predicted Value 5 4288.4 6 4479.68 7 4670.96 8 4862.24 9 5053.52 10 5244.8 11 5436.08 12 5627.36 13 5818.64
Predicted Value
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Predicted Value
36
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b0 ? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 3332 + 191.28 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
37
Existing and potential trade between India and Mexico
Product : 5209 Woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight over 200 g/m2
Mexico Import India Exports To Mexico From World India Share Of Mexico Import
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 656 664822 0.10 400 748503 0.05 76 652271 0.01 24 711172 0.00 200 696724 0.03 396 544936 0.07 285 382054 0.07 343 371516 0.09 448 351744 0.13
India Exports
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
38
1) 5209 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton and Weight more Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Mexico Is of variable Type. There Is steep Rise In year 2008 in Exports. 3) Despite of the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Steep fall Seen in the Exports But later There was steep rise as the developing countries economies has came out of recession period. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices then also India Maintained its growth rate. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 36%. 6) From 2008 as The Canadian Market And USA Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, they have shifted their manufacturing units to Mexico Which Led To Rise In Exports.
39
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N Forecasted Years 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years (X) Value (Y) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 314.22
656 400 76 24 200 396 285 343 448
2828
B? XY X^2 B? -2624 16 -3.55 314.22 -1200 9 -3.55 314.22 -152 4 -3.55 314.22 -24 1 -3.55 314.22 0 0 -3.55 314.22 396 1 -3.55 314.22 570 4 -3.55 314.22 1029 9 -3.55 314.22 1792 16 -3.55 314.22 -213 60
X (Years) Predicted Value 5 296.47 6 292.92 7 289.37 8 285.82 9 282.27 10 278.72 11 275.17 12 271.62 13 268.07
Predicted Value
300 290 280 270 260 250 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
40
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b0 ? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 314.22 – 3.55 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
41
Existing and potential trade between India and Mexico
Product : 5210 Woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight less 200 g/m2
India Share Of Mexico Import
Mexico Import India Exports To Mexico From World
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD Year (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 2001 0 42402 0.00 2002 0 57164 0.00 2003 222 60430 0.37 2004 3 59328 0.01 2005 97 74613 0.13 2006 1 64397 0.00 2007 36 47539 0.08 2008 540 55475 0.97 2009 362 40079 0.90
India Exports
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
42
1) 5210 Is the HS Code For the woven Blended Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton but the Weight is Less Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Mexico Is of Alternating Type. There Is steep Rise In year 2007-2008 in Exports by about 93%. 3) Despite of the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Stagnant Growth And fall Seen in the Exports But later There was steep rise as the developing countries economies has came out of recession period. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices then also India Maintained its growth rate. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 93%. 6) From 2008 as The Canadian Market And USA Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, they have shifted their manufacturing units to Mexico Which Led To Rise In Exports.
43
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N Forecasted Years 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 140.11 X (Years) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Value (Y)
XY
0 0 222 3 97 1 36 540 362
1261
0 0 -444 -3 0 1 72 1620 1448 2694
X^2 B? B? 16 44.90 140.11 9 44.90 140.11 4 44.90 140.11 1 44.90 140.11 0 44.90 140.11 1 44.90 140.11 4 44.90 140.11 9 44.90 140.11 16 44.90 140.11 60
Predicted Value 364.61 409.51 454.41 499.31 544.21 589.11 634.01 678.91 723.81
Predicted Value
800 600 400 200 0 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
44
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b0 ? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 140.11 + 44.90 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
45
Existing and potential trade between India and Mexico
Product : 5211 Woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight over 200 g/m2
India Share Of Mexico Import
Mexico Import India Exports To Mexico From World
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD Year (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 2001 1 55835 0.00 2002 0 71295 0.00 2003 16 79646 0.02 2004 20 77937 0.03 2005 0 98316 0.00 2006 0 90459 0.00 2007 103 61299 0.17 2008 291 74356 0.39 2009 114 49366 0.23
India Exports
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
46
1) 5211 Is the HS Code For the Blended Cotton Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton and the Weight more Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To Mexico Is of Growing Type. There Is steep Rise In year 2008 in Exports. 3) Despite of the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Stagnant Growth And fall Seen in the Exports But later There was steep rise as the developing countries economies has came out of recession period. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices then also India Maintained its growth rate. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By almost 100%. 6) From 2008 as The Canadian Market And USA Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, they have shifted their manufacturing units to Mexico Which Led To Rise In Exports.
47
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N Forecasted Years 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 60.56 X (Years) 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Value (Y)
XY
1 0 16 20 0 0 103 291 114
545
-4 0 -32 -20 0 0 206 873 456 1479
X^2 B? B? 16 24.65 60.56 9 24.65 60.56 4 24.65 60.56 1 24.65 60.56 0 24.65 60.56 1 24.65 60.56 4 24.65 60.56 9 24.65 60.56 16 24.65 60.56 60
Predicted Value 183.81 208.46 233.11 257.76 282.41 307.06 331.71 356.36 381.01
Predicted Value
500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
48
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b0 ? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 60.56 + 24.65 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
49
Existing and potential trade between India and USA
Product : 5208 woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight less than 200 g/m2
USA Import From World India Share Of USA Import
India Exports To USA
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports In USD(India) (thousand)
Total Exports In USD (thousand)
In percentage 6.39 6.87 6.45 5.46 4.85 5.48 4.56 4.18 4.43
38936 47097 43394 34985 27258 28766 21989 18205 15311
609735 685235 672292 640825 562204 525219 482135 435115 345967
India Exports
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
50
13) 5208 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton but the Weight is Less Than 200 GSM. 14) The Trend of the Indian exports To USA Is of Declining Type. There Is No Constant Rise In Exports After 2004. 15) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Rise Seen in the Exports But later The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 16) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in USA. 17) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By 55%. 18) From 2008 as The American Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
51
Total Exports
800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Exports
1. The Above Graph Shows The Total Of World Exports To USA. 2. By Comparing the Total world Exports to Mexico, In the Year 2001 – 2002, The World Exports Risen About 1.87% From Last Year In which India Share Was 0.24% 3. In Year 2007 – 2008 There was Rise Of 8.11% but at that period India share In World Exports Was Maximum i.e. 52%. This may Be Due To Strong Hold as India on Its Economy and Foreign reserves During the Recession period. 4. In 2007 – 2008 there was rise of 58% In Indian Exports.
800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ind Exports Total Exports
52
Forecasting By Exponential Smoothing Technique Assuming Exponential Smoothing Constant Alpha - 0.1 Forecast Of World Exports To USA Forecasted Years Value (Xt) Value (Ft) Error MPE MAPE 2001 38936 2002 38936 8161.00 17 94 47097 2003 39752.10 3641.90 8 85 43394 2004 40116.29 -5131.29 -15 75 34985 2005 39603.16 -12345.16 -45 63 27258 2006 38368.64 -9602.64 -33 54 28766 2007 37408.38 -15419.38 -70 44 21989 2008 35866.44 -17661.44 -97 33 18205 2009 34100.30 -18789.30 -123 11 15311 2010 32221.37 459 275941.00 304151.32 -67146.32 -357.47 51.00
50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Original Expected
53
31. In The Above Table Forecsting For The year 2010 Has Been Carried Out Using Exponential Smoothing technique. 32. The Formula Is As Under:33. Ft+1 :- ? * Xt + (1 – ?) * Ft
34. Notations 35. Ft+1 - The Forecast For The next Time period t+1. 36. Ft – The Forecast For The Present Time Period t. 37. Xt – The Actual Value For The present Time Period. 38. ? ‘- Exponential Smoothing Constant.
39. Here The Value Of Alpha is determined By Trial And Error Method Giving The Least Error. The Value Of Alpha Is 0.1. 40. From The Forcasted Figures We Can Give Below Interpretation. 41. Analysing From Year 2003 - 2004 We Can See That there is no Significant Variation In The Forecasted And Actual Figures Of India Exports to Canada. 42. But as Seen In The Year 2005, Despite of the removal Of Trade barriers There Was no significant growth in The Exports And The Exports Decreased By 23.47% from The Estimated Figures. 43. Further In The Year 2006 When The World Was Hit By Recession The Indian Exports declined By 48% From The Estimated Figures. 44. In 2007 The World Was Trying to recover From The global Financial Crisis again The Exports Increased And With the Help Of Export Promotion Schemes The Actual exports were Equal To Estimated Exports. 45. In the year 2007 and 2008 due to the introvert reforms Of Canada And USA The Exports of USA Fallen about 58%.
54
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 30660.11
Value (Y)
XY -155744 -141291 -86788 -34985 0 28766 43978 54615 61244 -230205
X^2 B? 16 9 4 1 0 1 4 9 16 60 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75 -3836.75
B? 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11 30660.11
38936 47097 43394 34985 27258 28766 21989 18205 15311
275941
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 11476.36 2011 6 7639.61 2012 7 3802.86 2012 8 -33.89 2013 9 -3870.64 2014 10 -7707.39 2015 11 -11544.14 2016 12 -15380.89 2017 13 -19217.64
Predicted Value
20000 10000 0 -10000 -20000 -30000 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
55
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
0
? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 30660.11 – 3836.75 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
56
Existing and potential trade between India and USA
Product : 5209 woven cotton fabrics, 85% or more cotton, weight over 200 g/m2
India Share Of USA Import In percentage 4.02 5.74 5.49 4.60 6.14 6.50 5.47 6.93 8.53
India Exports To USA
USA Import From World
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) 23379 581697 34704 604804 27196 495353 23186 503590 27341 445554 23694 364646 20453 373935 22756 328506 17769 208343
India Exports
40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
57
1) 5209 Is the HS Code For the woven Cotton Fabrics Containing 85% Or More Cotton and the Weight more Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To USA Is of Decreasing Type. There Is No Constant Rise In Exports After 2002. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Rise Seen in the Exports But later The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in USA. 5) From 2006 to 2008, this was the period of recession. USA was most hit by recession. The Exports decreased by almost 25%. 6) From 2008 as The American Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
58
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) Value (Y) XY X^2 B? B? -4 23379 -93516 16 -1187.70 24497.56 -3 34704 -104112 9 -1187.70 24497.56 -2 4 -1187.70 24497.56 27196 -54392 -1 1 -1187.70 24497.56 23186 -23186 0 0 0 -1187.70 24497.56 27341 1 23694 1 -1187.70 24497.56 23694 2 40906 4 -1187.70 24497.56 20453 3 68268 9 -1187.70 24497.56 22756 4 71076 16 -1187.70 24497.56 17769 0 220478 -71262 60 0 24497.56
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 18559.06 2011 6 17371.36 2012 7 16183.66 2012 8 14995.96 2013 9 13808.26 2014 10 12620.56 2015 11 11432.86 2016 12 10245.16 2017 13 9057.46
Predicted Value
20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
59
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b? (? X ) ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X ?X ? n
1 2 2 2 2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
? Y ? b1 X ? 0
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 24497.56 – 1187.70 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
60
Existing and potential trade between India and USA
Product : 5210 Woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight less 200 g/m2
India Share Of USA Import
India Exports To USA
USA Import From World
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 3497 144729 2.42 2186 204341 1.07 2059 176044 1.17 3734 208436 1.79 4202 186783 2.25 3195 176205 1.81 2456 136250 1.80 1711 99781 1.71 506 59531 0.85
India Exports
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
India Exports
61
1) 5210 Is the HS Code For the Blennded Cotton Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton but the Weight is Less Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To USA Is of mirror image Type. There Is No Constant Rise In Exports After 2004. 3) In The Year 2001 Despite of the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was no Rise Seen in the Exports and later also The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers in 2005 Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in USA. 5) From 2005 to 2007, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused but then also the exports keep on declining . 6) From 2008 till today The American Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
62
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) Value (Y) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 2616.22
3497 2186 2059 3734 4202 3195 2456 1711 506
23546
XY X^2 B? B? -13988 16 -218.90 2616.22 -6558 9 -218.90 2616.22 -4118 4 -218.90 2616.22 -3734 1 -218.90 2616.22 0 0 -218.90 2616.22 3195 1 -218.90 2616.22 4912 4 -218.90 2616.22 5133 9 -218.90 2616.22 2024 16 -218.90 2616.22 -13134 60
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 1521.72 2011 6 1302.82 2012 7 1083.92 2012 8 865.02 2013 9 646.12 2014 10 427.22 2015 11 208.32 2016 12 -10.58 2017 13 -229.48
Predicted Value
2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
63
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY ? b? (? X ) ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X ?X ? n
1 2 2 2 2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
? Y ? b1 X ? 0
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 2616.22 – 218.90 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
64
EXISTING AND POTENTIAL TRADE BETWEEN INDIA AND USA
Product: 5211 woven cotton less than 85%,mxd with manmade fiber, weight over 200g/m 2
India Share Of Mexico Import
Mexico Import India Exports To Mexico From World
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total Exports Total Exports In USD(India) In USD (thousand) (thousand) In percentage 2394 162966 1.47 3181 177433 1.79 5281 148534 3.56 1439 141507 1.02 2387 112844 2.12 2254 104515 2.16 4630 102365 4.52 2177 90712 2.40 660 61995 1.06
India Exports
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 India Exports
65
1) 5211 Is the HS Code For the Blended Cotton Fabrics Containing less than 85% Cotton and Weight more Than 200 GSM. 2) The Trend of the Indian exports To USA Is of ups and down Type. There Is No Constant Rise In Exports After 2004. 3) In The Year 2001 Due To the Privatization of SEZ and Introduction Various Export promotion Schemes There was Rise Seen in the Exports But later The Indian textile products can Not Come Up with The standards Of the American Countries There was decrease In Demand. 4) Due To the removal of NON tariff Barriers Such as Multifibre Agreement, The Chinese Industries Came into Picture with Massive Product Range At very Cheaper Prices Which Decreased the Share of Exports in USA. 5) From 2006 to 2007, this was the period of recession. In this Phase Due To the Scarcity of Foreign reserves the need for Good Quality Products at Low Prices Aroused. This Lead to the Rise in Exports of By 51%. 6) From 2008 as The American Market Is Getting Saturated and Due To Their Introvert Reforms And High Import duties, Expensive Labor, Strict Environmental Laws, The Export Is Falling.
66
Trend Analysis By Least Square method
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ?X^2 ?Y/N
Years (X) Value (Y) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 2711.44
2394 3181 5281 1439 2387 2254 4630 2177 660
24403
XY X^2 B? B? -9576 16 -173.92 2711.44 -9543 9 -173.92 2711.44 -10562 4 -173.92 2711.44 -1439 1 -173.92 2711.44 0 0 -173.92 2711.44 2254 1 -173.92 2711.44 9260 4 -173.92 2711.44 6531 9 -173.92 2711.44 2640 16 -173.92 2711.44 -10435 60
Forecasted Years X (Years) Predicted Value 2010 5 1841.84 2011 6 1667.92 2012 7 1494 2012 8 1320.08 2013 9 1146.16 2014 10 972.24 2015 11 798.32 2016 12 624.4 2017 13 450.48
Predicted Value
2000 1500 1000 500 0 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Predicted Value
67
Trend Analysis by least Square Method. The above Forecast Is Calculated By Forming A Mathematical Model representing The Slope And Intercept Of The Line. Formulae :ˆ Y ? b0 ? b1 X where :
1
b
0
= the sample intercept
b = the sample slope
ˆ Y = the predicted value of Y
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Slope Is As Under.
? ?X ? X ??Y ? Y ? ? ? XY ? nXY b? ? ?X ? X ? ? X ? n X
1 2 2
2
? X ?? Y ? ? XY ? ? n ? ? (? X ) ?X ? n
2 2
The Formulae To Calculate The Sample Intercept Is As Under
b
0
? Y ? b1 X ?
?Y ? ? X b n n
1
The Mathematical Model Formed Is As Under.
ˆ Y = 2711.44 – 173.92 X
Where X Is No. Of years And Y is Value In USD.
68
India Exports of 5208 to Canada, Mexico and USA.
2009 2008 2007 2006 CANADA 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Mexico
The Above Graph Shows The Indian Exports Of Product 5208 Till Date. As We Can See That The Maximum Share Of Exports Was Made In USA But As The Time Passes The Growth For USA Is Declining And The Growth In Mexico Is Increasing. After 2007 the exports of 5208 is steeply declining.
As Mexico Is a Developing Nation and developed countries such as Canada and USA have Shifted Their Production Units to Mexico. The Imports in Mexico are Increasing Nowadays.
Moreover The Value Of American Exports Is Very Much High Compare To Canada Or Mexico, But Its Declining Day By Day. And The Rate At which The Exports Is Declining Is More Than The Rate At Which The Exports Is Growing In Mexican Countries.
Thus Industries Should Encourage The Exports In Mexican Countries. Also they should try To Collaborate with the American Countries and Encourage Them to Import Goods via Mexican Countries. As there is Free Trade Zone between These Three Countries and Maximum Imports of Canada and America Is From Mexico.
69
The Upcoming Trend of 5208 in NAFTA Countries.
2017 2016 2015 2014 CANADA 2013 2012 2012 2011 2010 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA MEXICO
In The above Graph by applying the regression Analysis the Future Estimates Till 2017 Is Obtained. As Shown from This After 2012 The Exports to USA Will Be very less and the Maximum Market Will Be captured By Mexico. Also After 2012 Exports To Canada Will Also Start Declining. This Shows That the Emerging Economies are Growing Very rapidly and There GDP Is Also Increasing as the Production Units are Shifted Due To Cheap Land and Labor. Mathematically The Future Trends Are Showing Rise In Mexican Imports But there Are Various Other Factor Such as Trade Tariff, Currency fluctuation Rate, Economic Conditions, Political Conditions And Many More Which Will affect The Picture Of Imports To These Countries.
Remark:The Figures Shown Above Are Obtained Mathematically. So This Is Not the True depiction Of Exports Because There May Be Some Economic Reforms to Regulate the Exports. But As Per The Last Year Exports The Trend Obtained For 2017 Are As Above.
70
India Exports Of 5209 To Canada, Mexico And USA.
2009 2008 2007 2006 CANADA 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Mexico
The Above Graph Shows The Indian Exports Of Product 5209 Till Date. As We Can See That The Maximum Share Of Exports Was Made In USA But As The Time Passes The Growth For USA Is Declining And The Growth In Mexico Is Increasing. After 2007 the exports of 5209 is steeply declining.
As Mexico Is a Developing Nation and developed countries such as Canada and USA have Shifted Their Production Units to Mexico. The Imports in Mexico are Increasing Nowadays.
Moreover The Value Of American Exports Is Very Much High Compare To Canada Or Mexico, But Its Declining Day By Day. And The Rate At which The Exports Is Declining Is More Than The Rate At Which The Exports Is Growing In Mexican Countries.
Thus Industries Should Encourage The Exports In Mexican Countries. Also they should try To Collaborate with the American Countries and Encourage Them to Import Goods via Mexican Countries. As there is Free Trade Zone between These Three Countries and Maximum Imports of Canada and America Is From Mexico.
71
The Upcoming Trend of 5209 in NAFTA Countries.
2017 2016 2015 2014 CANADA 2013 2012 2012 2011 2010 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA MEXICO
In The above Graph by applying the regression Analysis the Future Estimates Till 2017 Is Obtained. As Shown from This After 2012 The Exports to USA Will Be very less and the Maximum Market Will Be captured By Mexico. Also After 2012 Exports To Canada Will Also Start Declining. This Shows That the Emerging Economies are Growing Very rapidly and There GDP Is Also Increasing as the Production Units are Shifted Due To Cheap Land and Labor. Mathematically The Future Trends Are Showing Rise In Mexican Imports But there Are Various Other Factor Such as Trade Tariff, Currency fluctuation Rate, Economic Conditions, Political Conditions And Many More Which Will affect The Picture Of Imports To These Countries.
Remark:The Figures Shown Above Are Obtained Mathematically. So This Is Not the True depiction Of Exports Because There May Be Some Economic Reforms to Regulate the Exports. But As Per The Last Year Exports The Trend Obtained For 2017 Are As Above.
72
India Exports Of 5210 To Canada, Mexico And USA.
2009 2008 2007 2006 CANADA 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Mexico
The Above Graph Shows The Indian Exports Of Product 5210 Till Date. As We Can See That The Maximum Share Of Exports Was Made In USA But As The Time Passes The Growth For USA Is Declining And The Growth In Mexico Is Increasing. After 2007 the exports of 5210 is steeply declining.
As Mexico Is a Developing Nation and developed countries such as Canada and USA have Shifted Their Production Units to Mexico. The Imports in Mexico are Increasing Nowadays.
Moreover The Value Of American Exports Is Very Much High Compare To Canada Or Mexico, But Its Declining Day By Day. And The Rate At which The Exports Is Declining Is More Than The Rate At Which The Exports Is Growing In Mexican Countries.
Thus Industries Should Encourage The Exports In Mexican Countries. Also they should try To Collaborate with the American Countries and Encourage Them to Import Goods via Mexican Countries. As there is Free Trade Zone between These Three Countries and Maximum Imports of Canada and America Is From Mexico.
73
The Upcoming Trend of 5210 in NAFTA Countries.
2017 2016 2015 2014 CANADA 2013 2012 2012 2011 2010 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA MEXICO
In The above Graph by applying the regression Analysis the Future Estimates Till 2017 Is Obtained. As Shown from This After 2012 The Exports to USA Will Be very less and the Maximum Market Will Be captured By Mexico. Also After 2012 Exports To Canada Will Also Start Declining. This Shows That the Emerging Economies are Growing Very rapidly and There GDP Is Also Increasing as the Production Units are Shifted Due To Cheap Land and Labor. Mathematically The Future Trends Are Showing Rise In Mexican Imports But there Are Various Other Factor Such as Trade Tariff, Currency fluctuation Rate, Economic Conditions, Political Conditions And Many More Which Will affect The Picture Of Imports To These Countries.
Remark:The Figures Shown Above Are Obtained Mathematically. So This Is Not the True depiction Of Exports Because There May Be Some Economic Reforms to Regulate the Exports. But As Per The Last Year Exports The Trend Obtained For 2017 Are As Above.
74
India Exports Of 5211 To Canada, Mexico And USA.
2009 2008 2007 2006 CANADA 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA Mexico
The Above Graph Shows The Indian Exports Of Product 5210 Till Date. As We Can See That The Maximum Share Of Exports Was Made In USA But As The Time Passes The Growth For USA Is Declining And The Growth In Mexico Is Increasing. After 2007 the exports of 5210 is steeply declining.
As Mexico Is a Developing Nation and developed countries such as Canada and USA have Shifted Their Production Units to Mexico. The Imports in Mexico are Increasing Nowadays.
Moreover The Value Of American Exports Is Very Much High Compare To Canada Or Mexico, But Its Declining Day By Day. And The Rate At which The Exports Is Declining Is More Than The Rate At Which The Exports Is Growing In Mexican Countries.
Thus Industries Should Encourage The Exports In Mexican Countries. Also they should try To Collaborate with the American Countries and Encourage Them to Import Goods via Mexican Countries. As there is Free Trade Zone between These Three Countries and Maximum Imports of Canada and America Is From Mexico.
75
The Upcoming Trend of 5211 in NAFTA Countries.
2017 2016 2015 2014 CANADA 2013 2012 2012 2011 2010 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% USA MEXICO
In The above Graph by applying the regression Analysis the Future Estimates Till 2017 Is Obtained. As Shown from This After 2012 The Exports to USA Will Be very less and the Maximum Market Will Be captured By Mexico. Also After 2012 Exports To Canada Will Also Start Declining. This Shows That the Emerging Economies are Growing Very rapidly and There GDP Is Also Increasing as the Production Units are Shifted Due To Cheap Land and Labor. Mathematically The Future Trends Are Showing Rise In Mexican Imports But there Are Various Other Factor Such as Trade Tariff, Currency fluctuation Rate, Economic Conditions, Political Conditions And Many More Which Will affect The Picture Of Imports To These Countries.
Remark:The Figures Shown Above Are Obtained Mathematically. So This Is Not the True depiction Of Exports Because There May Be Some Economic Reforms to Regulate the Exports. But As Per The Last Year Exports The Trend Obtained For 2017 Are As Above.
76
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