Elections in UP
By: Amit Bhushan Date: 21st Dec. 2016
With a majority of the pundits in agreement for their readiness to shed the past issues of caste and religion, polls in the largest state are still an open question. Big jostling is ongoing to seek votes from the weakest section with the only difference being that this time, it is being targeted basis geography viz. urban slums & rural pockets with the promises of giveaways rather than jobs or empowerment. In fact the candidates have not changed and this is likely to be a factor going against the ‘sitting’ candidates, most likely and seems to have been factored in already by most netas/parties. There maybe a few ‘cynics’ though and on all sides, however its ok and much better than earlier when ‘social media’ was proclaimed as the number one cynic in the country. Whoever proclaimed that the polity can’t be changed needs to re-think and revisit their earlier speeches/comments etc.??? It can change with good intentions and minuscule efforts, although the media & the ruling class/es will not like to acknowledge either the change or even the protagonist/s of such a change. However they all now have much better appreciation of the ‘ruling ideology’ viz. ‘game’, hopefully. The reading of pundits that it may be too late for other old issues rising above the horizon might be correct since the leaders vacillating from the course tend to loose followers quite easily, as has been experienced time and again.
So what is perhaps going to decide the UP elections can now be summed up. It is the women votes and which way they swing as the most major factor. The game is almost open on account of this even in this late hour. The next is urban lower middle classes, which are still divided lot in the era of post demonetization. They are also a huge influence on rural votes since their opinions matter more than anything in the commercial news media nowadays. It is this lot which comes from all castes & religions from Brahmins to the classes enjoying reservations in government jobs. The power of priesthood or caste leaders has waned here to the extent they are now fringe (except for the political netas with an axe to grind) and a media unable to withstand the onslaught of social media with netas ignoring these questions and looking the other way, sure makes them a loser. While there are farmer related issues as well as those of the suited-booted, however those having a cogent agenda for the rural landless poor would make for a better cut. In the case of the state, it is Skilling or Employment guarantee that has made a better cut. This is while the parties in fray tom-tomming their own novel ideas. In fact poking fun at old school ideas propounded by the same netas including pending development projects might be a better trick to give masses some better electoral fun while canvassing for votes rather than an unnecessary tough posturing. It also helps to get women votes.
What has perhaps not cut much ice is lack of large employment generating projects either from public sector or the private sector. The failing production units and a lack of large service sector investments like back offices of domestic and foreign BPOs in the state, has had some level of dis-enchantment. The state has not be able to make strides in medical facilities or food processing mainly on account of visible political intervention, despite making noise on this count. There has been scant respect for the need to enhance irrigation facilities in rural water scare areas either through small check dams or canal irrigation. In fact people in these areas also believe that they are ignored by the infra push since that also happens in areas which already seem to be prosperous by the local standards. That said, a minority or approx. 15-25% may already be decided on which party should get their votes while it may be splintered across the parties. It is unfortunate that pollsters seem mainly banking on them for the forecasts relying on the facts that ultimately the majority will necessary swing in proportion.
By: Amit Bhushan Date: 21st Dec. 2016
With a majority of the pundits in agreement for their readiness to shed the past issues of caste and religion, polls in the largest state are still an open question. Big jostling is ongoing to seek votes from the weakest section with the only difference being that this time, it is being targeted basis geography viz. urban slums & rural pockets with the promises of giveaways rather than jobs or empowerment. In fact the candidates have not changed and this is likely to be a factor going against the ‘sitting’ candidates, most likely and seems to have been factored in already by most netas/parties. There maybe a few ‘cynics’ though and on all sides, however its ok and much better than earlier when ‘social media’ was proclaimed as the number one cynic in the country. Whoever proclaimed that the polity can’t be changed needs to re-think and revisit their earlier speeches/comments etc.??? It can change with good intentions and minuscule efforts, although the media & the ruling class/es will not like to acknowledge either the change or even the protagonist/s of such a change. However they all now have much better appreciation of the ‘ruling ideology’ viz. ‘game’, hopefully. The reading of pundits that it may be too late for other old issues rising above the horizon might be correct since the leaders vacillating from the course tend to loose followers quite easily, as has been experienced time and again.
So what is perhaps going to decide the UP elections can now be summed up. It is the women votes and which way they swing as the most major factor. The game is almost open on account of this even in this late hour. The next is urban lower middle classes, which are still divided lot in the era of post demonetization. They are also a huge influence on rural votes since their opinions matter more than anything in the commercial news media nowadays. It is this lot which comes from all castes & religions from Brahmins to the classes enjoying reservations in government jobs. The power of priesthood or caste leaders has waned here to the extent they are now fringe (except for the political netas with an axe to grind) and a media unable to withstand the onslaught of social media with netas ignoring these questions and looking the other way, sure makes them a loser. While there are farmer related issues as well as those of the suited-booted, however those having a cogent agenda for the rural landless poor would make for a better cut. In the case of the state, it is Skilling or Employment guarantee that has made a better cut. This is while the parties in fray tom-tomming their own novel ideas. In fact poking fun at old school ideas propounded by the same netas including pending development projects might be a better trick to give masses some better electoral fun while canvassing for votes rather than an unnecessary tough posturing. It also helps to get women votes.
What has perhaps not cut much ice is lack of large employment generating projects either from public sector or the private sector. The failing production units and a lack of large service sector investments like back offices of domestic and foreign BPOs in the state, has had some level of dis-enchantment. The state has not be able to make strides in medical facilities or food processing mainly on account of visible political intervention, despite making noise on this count. There has been scant respect for the need to enhance irrigation facilities in rural water scare areas either through small check dams or canal irrigation. In fact people in these areas also believe that they are ignored by the infra push since that also happens in areas which already seem to be prosperous by the local standards. That said, a minority or approx. 15-25% may already be decided on which party should get their votes while it may be splintered across the parties. It is unfortunate that pollsters seem mainly banking on them for the forecasts relying on the facts that ultimately the majority will necessary swing in proportion.