Description
the relationship between stock returns and currency fluctuations, estimation of Economic exposure of Indian firms, finds relationship between Industry Affiliation and Economic Exposure, explores relationship of Economic Exposure with Industry Characteristics. Understand the current hedging strategies adopted by Indian firms for currency exposure management.
26th Aug 2010
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Objective Methodology & Relevance Estimating economic exposure Industry Affiliation Industry Characteristics Current Hedging Practices
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
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Examine the relationship between stock returns and currency fluctuations Estimation of Economic exposure of Indian firms To find relationship between Industry Affiliation and Economic Exposure Explore relationship of Economic Exposure with Industry Characteristics Understand the current hedging strategies adopted by Indian firms for currency exposure management
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
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Comprehensive study of economic exposure estimation for 98 publicly listed Indian firms with cross-industry representation Earlier studies have usually focused only on the firm-level determinants of economic exposure
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Our study focuses on the industry determinants of economic exposure
Empirical proof of relationship of economic exposure with industry affiliation for Indian firms One of the first studies to study linkages between Economic Exposure and Porter’s Five Forces’ Model
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
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Estimation of Economic Exposure - Models Used
a) Adler and Simon Model (1986) Rit = ?i + ?i et + ?it where Rit = monthly stock returns for the firm (from Jan. 2000 ) et = monthly % change in exchange rate b) Jorion Model (1990) Rit = ?i + ?1i et + ?2i Rmt + ?it where Rit = monthly stock returns for the firm Rmt = monthly market return for BSE-500 et = monthly % change in exchange rate
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Objective
Method
EEE
Ind Aff
Ind Char
Curr HP
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Relationship between Economic Exposure and Industry Structure
? Relationship between Economic Exposure and Industry Affiliation
? Dummy variable regression on economic exposure beta
? Relationship between Economic Exposure and Industry Characteristics ? Porter’s Five Forces’ Model used as proxy for Industry Characteristics
? Dummy variable regression
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
“Let’s look at individual sectors”
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Auto Sector
Model 1
Model 2
Company Amtek Auto Ltd. Apollo Tyres Ltd.
INR/Poun INR/Poun % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d BSE
-1.498 -1.707 -1.470 0.131 -0.493 -0.202 0.787 0.387 -0.653 -0.765 -1.718 -0.146 -0.028 0.317 0.676 0.263 0.911 1.015
Ashok Leyland Ltd.
Bharat Forge Ltd. Bosch Ltd. Cummins India Ltd. Escorts Ltd. Exide Industries Ltd. Hero Honda Motors Ltd. M R F Ltd. Mahindra & M Ltd. Maruti Suzuki Ind Ltd. Tata Motors Ltd. Average
-1.338
-1.817 -0.745 -0.931 -0.905 -1.528 -0.186 -1.674 -0.637 -1.016 -0.901 -1.145
-0.490
0.396 -0.363 0.119 0.100 -0.269 0.184 0.497 0.329 -0.745 0.667 -0.070
-0.674
-0.281 0.197 -0.326 -0.346 0.179 -0.050 -0.780 -0.671 0.659 -0.885 -0.282
0.836
0.710 0.407 0.234 0.009 0.918 0.238 -0.223 0.700 0.857 0.403 0.482
-0.399
-0.862 -0.124 -0.184 0.467 -0.707 0.289 -0.557 0.349 0.104 0.198 -0.219
-0.767
0.115 -0.546 -0.101 -0.304 -0.511 0.045 0.168 0.038 -0.761 0.343 -0.319
-0.157
0.245 0.539 0.085 0.408 0.631 0.211 -0.165 -0.128 0.809 -0.281 0.191
0.713
0.585 0.326 0.136 -0.171 0.811 0.175 -0.370 0.571 0.588 0.259 0.351
1.012
1.030 0.670 0.804 1.478 0.884 0.512 1.204 1.063 0.845 1.184 0.970
• Highest economic exposure for pound and Euro • Major import sources-rest of Asia, EU, ASEAN and North America
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Capital Goods
Company
A B B Ltd. Areva T & D India Ltd. B E M L Ltd.
Model 1
INR/USD
-1.406 -0.439 -2.645
Model 2
INR/EUR
-0.066 0.220 -0.392
INR/EUR
0.179 0.534 -0.104
INR/YEN INR/Pound INR/USD
-0.929 -1.218 -0.468 0.072 -0.694 0.398 -0.572 0.624 -1.666
INR/YEN INR/Pound
-0.471 -0.633 0.071 -0.038 -0.833 0.270
% return BSE
0.898 1.146 1.055
BEL
BHEL Crompton Greaves Ltd.
-1.084
-0.934 -2.006
0.186
-0.008 -0.151
0.000
-0.307 -0.714
-0.007
0.140 0.290
-0.221
-0.102 -0.948
-0.068
-0.253 -0.463
0.475
0.151 -0.133
-0.121
0.030 0.152
0.930
0.897 1.140
Gammon India Ltd.
Havells India Ltd. Jyoti Structures Ltd. Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd. Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Praj Industries Ltd. Reliance Industrial Infra Ltd. Siemens Ltd. Thermax Ltd. Usha Martin Ltd. Average
-4.411
-1.862 -2.470 -1.463 -1.610 -0.422 -2.384 -1.775 -1.825 -1.348 -1.755
-0.492
-0.568 -0.585 -0.321 0.648 0.704 0.579 -0.505 0.506 0.816 0.089
0.209
-0.568 -0.107 0.005 -0.685 -0.583 -0.524 0.053 -0.921 -0.771 -0.471
0.849
1.240 0.969 0.834 0.238 0.049 -0.210 1.221 0.897 -0.349 0.371
-3.356
-0.945 -1.029 -0.390 -0.488 0.984 -0.664 -0.641 -0.845 0.045 -0.638
-0.802
-0.839 -1.009 -0.637 0.317 0.290 0.073 -0.839 0.217 0.406 -0.240
0.789
-0.064 0.685 0.595 -0.068 0.191 0.422 0.677 -0.382 -0.004 0.144
0.711
1.120 0.780 0.693 0.091 -0.135 -0.435 1.073 0.768 -0.531 0.225
1.138
0.989 1.553 1.156 1.209 1.516 1.853 1.223 1.057 1.501 1.204
•Highest economic exposure to US dollar which could be because of the dependence of India on US for electrical equipments like motors, generators and transformers etc. • It draws imports from Europe as well 8
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Consumer Goods
Model 1
Model 2
Company Bajaj Electricals Ltd. Blue Star Ltd. Rajesh Exports Ltd. Titan Industries Ltd. V I P Industries Ltd. Videocon Industries Ltd. Whirlpool Of India Ltd. Average
INR/Pou INR/Pou % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN nd INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN nd BSE-500
-3.028 -2.179 -2.718 -0.779 -1.456 -2.523 -0.724 -1.915 -0.753 -0.300 -0.009 -0.690 -0.098 -0.448 -0.208 -0.358 -0.019 -0.734 0.540 -0.752 0.545 0.198 -0.810 -0.147 1.329 1.379 -0.798 0.716 1.117 1.019 1.203 0.852 -2.964 -2.140 -2.565 -0.752 -1.445 -2.503 -0.728 -1.871 -0.786 -0.320 -0.088 -0.704 -0.104 -0.459 -0.206 -0.381 0.151 -0.632 0.943 -0.681 0.576 0.252 -0.820 -0.030 1.242 1.326 -1.007 0.679 1.101 0.991 1.209 0.792 -0.471 -0.285 -1.123 -0.197 -0.084 -0.149 0.030 -0.326
• Exceptionally high economic exposure to US Dollar • 70% of the market is served with imports from US, China and Japan. • Major export destinations for Indian consumer durables industry have been Hong Kong, UAE , Malaysia and Finland
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
FMCG
Model 1
Model 2
Company Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. Dabur India Ltd. Hindustan Unilever Ltd. I T C Ltd. Nestle India Ltd. Ruchi Soya Inds. Ltd. Tata Global Beverages Ltd.
INR/Pou INR/Pou % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN nd INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN nd BSE-500
-0.645 -0.402 0.328 0.229 -1.160 -2.884 -0.645 0.012 -0.180 0.388 -0.023 0.054 -0.848 0.695 0.199 0.073 -0.186 -0.113 0.087 -0.023 -0.161 -0.202 -0.009 -0.811 -0.236 -0.162 1.516 -0.771 -0.367 0.046 0.762 0.720 -0.971 -1.736 0.104 -0.069 -0.312 0.260 -0.168 -0.001 -1.186 0.475 0.352 0.319 0.052 0.157 0.190 0.608 0.251 -0.238 -0.068 -0.868 -0.300 -0.186 1.366 -0.869 0.300 0.483 0.467 0.529 0.203 1.237 0.807
United Spirits Ltd.
Average
-1.696
-1.586
0.023
0.977
-0.717
-1.524
0.432
0.694
0.957
-0.859
-0.186
-0.013
0.038
-0.270
-0.316
0.295
-0.059
0.623
• Strong MNC presence • Not very high economic exposures to any of the major currency
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Healthcare
Model 1
Model 2
Company Apollo Hospitals Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. Biocon Ltd. Cipla Ltd.
Divi'S Laboratories Ltd.
INR/Poun INR/Poun % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d BSE
-0.434 -1.471 -0.812 -0.108 -1.281 -0.303 -0.460 -0.832 -2.247 -1.076 -2.114 -1.331 0.152 -0.181 0.947 -0.603 0.254 -1.002 0.017 0.261 0.420 0.612 0.607 0.062 0.016 0.634 -0.293 -0.078 -0.291 -0.143 0.208 -0.116 0.322 -0.462 -0.144 -0.841 0.101 0.539 -0.783 0.381 -0.260 0.623 -0.300 0.233 0.363 -0.435 -0.444 0.409 -1.004 0.446 0.460 -0.549 0.227 -0.308 0.456 0.332 0.146 0.206 -0.017 -0.032 -1.433 0.406 -1.397 -0.465 0.669 -0.376 0.604 -0.560 0.125 -1.073 -0.133 0.130 0.185 0.372 0.562 -0.149 -0.239 0.482 0.071 0.562 -0.144 0.099 0.447 0.164 0.565 -0.022 0.304 -0.411 0.496 1.015 -0.499 0.294 -0.412 0.237 -0.357 -0.187 0.296 -0.493 -0.549 0.302 -1.422 0.352 0.346 -0.617 0.712 1.254 0.915 0.474 1.076 0.549 0.478 0.862 0.877 1.287 0.774 0.934 0.557
Dr. Reddy's Glaxosmithkline
Ipca Laboratories Ltd.
Jubilant Organosys Ltd. Opto Circuits (India) Ltd. Piramal Healthcare Ltd. Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. Sun Pharma Inds. Ltd. Average
-0.947
0.157
-0.152
-0.006
-0.093
-0.005
0.204
-0.170
0.827
• The highest economic exposure for healthcare sector is for Yen • Indian exports are destined to various countries around the globe including the highly regulated markets of USA, Europe, Japan and Australia. • Import sources are UK, Germany and US, EU
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
IT
Model 1
Model 2
% return INR/Pound BSE
0.374 -0.159 -0.086 0.527 1.935 0.120 0.987 0.735 0.954 1.357 1.266 1.531
Company HCL Infosys Moser Baer Mphasis Ltd. N I I T Ltd.
INR/USD
-1.243 -0.008 -1.273 0.106 -1.995 -1.292
INR/EUR
0.161 0.510 0.223 -0.407 -0.557 -0.196
INR/YEN
-0.799 -0.711 -0.282 -0.910 -0.699 -1.058
INR/Pound INR/USD
0.494 -0.070 0.030 0.692 2.089 0.306 -0.328 0.674 -0.388 1.365 -0.820 0.128
INR/EUR
-0.109 0.309 -0.038 -0.778 -0.903 -0.614
INR/YEN
-0.295 -0.336 0.205 -0.217 -0.052 -0.277
Rolta India Ltd. Wipro Ltd.
Average
0.650
1.149
-1.358
-0.655
1.772
0.819
-0.740
-0.803
1.209
-0.722
0.126
-0.831
0.412
0.343
-0.188
-0.245
0.273
1.148
• Indian IT sector provides service to many parts of the world • Major export destinations - US, UK
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Real Estate
Model 1
Model 2
Company Ackruti City Ltd. Parsvnath Dev Ltd.
Peninsula Land Ltd.
INR/Poun INR/Poun % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d BSE-500
-3.044 -1.927 -2.805 -3.945 -1.813 -2.680 0.266 -0.931 -0.184 -1.385 0.777 0.514 1.198 -0.449 -0.254 0.111 -0.857 -0.536 0.155 1.306 0.102 2.162 -0.204 1.491 -2.008 1.000 -1.064 -1.773 -1.256 -1.326 0.276 -0.876 -0.697 -1.344 0.801 0.116 1.412 0.139 0.704 0.547 -0.592 0.209 -0.141 0.487 -0.127 1.555 -0.288 1.314 0.784 2.224 1.876 1.650 0.543 1.460
Sobha Developers Ltd. Sunteck Realty Ltd. Unitech Ltd. Average
-2.702
-0.157
-0.131
0.835
-1.071
-0.287
0.403
0.467
1.423
•Majority of FDIs are from West Asia and investors from the US and Europe •Highly exposed to Dollar fluctuations as shown by the results •Same is the case with Euro but coefficient is much smaller
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Power
Model 1
Model 2
Company A B B Ltd. BHEL Crompton Greaves Ltd. G M R Infrastructure Ltd. G V K Power & Infra Ltd. Neyveli Lignite Corp. Ltd. Reliance Infra Ltd. Siemens Ltd. Suzlon Energy Ltd.
INR/Poun INR/Poun % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d BSE-500
-1.406 -0.934 -2.006 -1.008 -1.477 -1.295 -1.802 0.179 -0.008 -0.151 -0.823 -2.097 0.250 -0.668 -0.929 -0.307 -0.714 -1.128 -0.214 -0.327 0.027 0.072 0.140 0.290 -0.483 0.187 0.224 0.686 -0.572 -0.102 -0.948 0.733 -0.008 -0.085 -0.599 -0.066 -0.253 -0.463 -0.757 -2.003 -0.106 -1.022 -0.471 0.151 -0.133 -0.731 0.461 0.339 0.689 -0.038 0.030 0.152 -1.092 -0.025 0.065 0.528 0.898 0.897 1.140 1.361 1.448 1.304 1.296
-1.775
-2.354
-0.505
0.145
0.053
-0.442
1.221
-0.167
-0.641
-0.759
-0.839
0.062
0.677
0.372
1.073
-0.521
1.223
1.704
Tata Power Co. Ltd.
Average
-1.044
1.154
-0.357
-0.748
-0.010
0.849
0.212
-0.884
1.114
-1.510
-0.252
-0.434
0.142
-0.299
-0.460
0.157
-0.071
1.239
• Coefficient for the US dollar, British pound and Euro is negative implying that appreciation in these currencies will lead to a decrease in company’s value.
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Metal
Model 1
Model 2
Company
Hindalco Ind. Ltd.
INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN
-0.575 -0.812 -1.960 0.271 0.383 1.095 -0.561 -0.632 -0.434
INR/Poun d INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN
0.299 -0.181 0.108 0.456 0.342 -0.680 -0.032 0.043 0.718 0.007 0.003 0.270
INR/Poun % return d BSE-500
0.164 -0.332 -0.060 1.111 1.244 1.379
Hindustan Zinc Ltd. J S W Steel Ltd.
Jindal Saw Ltd.
Jindal Steel & Pow Ltd. National Al. Co. Ltd. Sesa Goa Ltd. SAIL Tata Steel Ltd. Welspun Corp Ltd. Average
-0.771
-2.924 -0.860 -1.884 -1.845 -1.670 -2.055
2.560
2.057 -0.167 1.122 0.866 0.355 0.314
-2.374
-0.730 -0.117 0.146 -0.072 -0.268 -1.138
-0.547
-0.937 0.042 -0.202 -0.356 0.470 0.371
0.658
-1.707 0.082 -0.587 -0.553 -0.439 -0.276
2.139
1.699 -0.445 0.740 0.486 -0.008 0.195
-1.588
-0.060 0.401 0.859 0.639 0.410 -0.549
-0.734
-1.096 -0.081 -0.372 -0.526 0.309 -0.087
1.540
1.312 1.016 1.398 1.392 1.327 1.590
-1.536
0.886
-0.618
-0.093
-0.271
0.554
0.039
-0.281
1.331
• Largest economic exposure to Euro • The regression coefficient for $ and yen are negative • Belgium, Japan and USA are key exports markets • China and Korea, UK and USA are the key sources for imports 16
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
All Sectors
Model 1
Model 2
Sector Auto Capital goods Consumer goods
INR/USD
-1.1447 -1.7553 -1.9153
INR/EUR
-0.0703 0.0886 -0.3580
INR/YEN
-0.2824 -0.4705 -0.1472
INR/Pound INR/USD
0.4818 0.3711 0.8521 -0.2188 -0.6384 -1.8711
INR/EUR
-0.3190 -0.2404 -0.3809
INR/YEN
0.1912 0.1439 -0.0303
% return INR/Pound BSE-500
0.3509 0.2246 0.7917 0.9702 1.2038 -0.3256
FMCG
Health care IT Oil and gas Real estate Metal Power
-0.8595
-0.9475 -0.7222 -0.1984 -2.7021 -1.5357 -1.4243
-0.1860
0.1573 0.1262 -0.0724 -0.1571 0.8857 -0.2222
-0.0128
-0.1524 -0.8308 -0.2840 -0.1312 -0.6180 -0.3663
0.0379
-0.0060 0.4124 0.3902 0.8353 -0.0930 0.0885
-0.2699
-0.0930 0.3432 0.6967 -1.0712 -0.2705 -0.2552
-0.3158
-0.0054 -0.1876 -0.3360 -0.2875 0.5535 -0.4099
0.2952
0.2037 -0.2446 0.2085 0.4031 0.0392 0.1913
-0.0588
-0.1701 0.2727 0.2727 0.4665 -0.2815 -0.1266
0.6231
0.8267 1.1483 0.9647 1.4228 1.3309 1.1878
•Indian consumer durables industry has the highest economic exposure to the US Dollar which might because of the previously stated reason - High import dependence on US. •Healthcare has the lowest economic exposure to US Dollar and Euro which could be because of the balanced state of trade with US and European countries. •Indian metal industry has the highest positive economic exposure to the Euro because of the huge exports to Belgium and other European countries.
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
All Sectors
Model 1
Model 2
Sector Auto Capital goods Consumer goods FMCG Health care IT Oil and gas Real estate Metal Power
INR/USD
-1.1447 -1.7553 -1.9153 -0.8595 -0.9475 -0.7222 -0.1984 -2.7021 -1.5357 -1.4243
INR/EUR
-0.0703 0.0886 -0.3580 -0.1860 0.1573 0.1262 -0.0724 -0.1571 0.8857 -0.2222
INR/YEN
-0.2824 -0.4705 -0.1472 -0.0128 -0.1524 -0.8308 -0.2840 -0.1312 -0.6180 -0.3663
INR/Pound INR/USD
0.4818 0.3711 0.8521 0.0379 -0.0060 0.4124 0.3902 0.8353 -0.0930 0.0885 -0.2188 -0.6384 -1.8711 -0.2699 -0.0930 0.3432 0.6967 -1.0712 -0.2705 -0.2552
INR/EUR
-0.3190 -0.2404 -0.3809 -0.3158 -0.0054 -0.1876 -0.3360 -0.2875 0.5535 -0.4099
INR/YEN
0.1912 0.1439 -0.0303 0.2952 0.2037 -0.2446 0.2085 0.4031 0.0392 0.1913
% return INR/Pound BSE-500
0.3509 0.2246 0.7917 -0.0588 -0.1701 0.2727 0.2727 0.4665 -0.2815 -0.1266 0.9702 1.2038 -0.3256 0.6231 0.8267 1.1483 0.9647 1.4228 1.3309 1.1878
•Sectors having high economic exposure to US Dollar are Consumer Durables, Capital goods, IT •Sector having high economic exposure to Euro are consumer durables and metal •Consumer Goods industry can be identified as the industry having high economic exposure to all the major currencies
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
“Is there an impact of the kind of industry”
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Sample Technique Used
: :
98 publicly listed Indian firms Dummy variable regression
?i = ?i + ?1 D1 + ?2 D2 +… + ?10 D10 + ?i
where Dp = 1 if industry type of company i = p = 0 if industry type of company i ? p and ?i = economic exposure beta of company
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Results:
Regression Statistic Number of firms Significance Level Adler Model 98 8.8 E-07 and Simon Jorion’s Model 98 3.56E-07
Implications:
• Industry affiliation has a highly significant impact on Economic exposure • Firms need to consider industry characteristics like industry concentration also in their international financial management strategies.
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
“What are the key features of industry I am in”
22
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
?
Porter’s Five Forces’ Model used as proxy for Industry structure
Buyer Power High High High High Low High Low High Low Low Supplier Power High Low Low Low Low Low High High High Low Threat of Substitutes New entrants High High Low Low High Low High Low Low Low Low Low Low Low High High Low Low Low Low Competitive Rivalry High High High High High High Low High High Low
Sector Auto Capital goods Consumer durables FMCG Healthcare IT Oil and Gas Real Estate Metal Power
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
? ?
Sample Technique Used
Regression Statistic Number of firms Significance Level Intercept
: :
98 publicly listed Indian firms Dummy variable regression
Method 2 98 9.72 E-05 Coeff: 0.086 p-value: 0.68 Coeff: -0.71 p-value: 0.012 Coeff: 0.07 p-value: 0.68 Coeff: 0.75 p-value: 0.011 Coeff: 0.23 p-value: 0.36 Coeff: -0.42 p-value: 0.17
Method1 98 9.68 E-05 Coeff: -0.86 p-value: 8.93E-05 Bargaining power of Coeff: -0.72 Buyers p-value: 0.011 Bargaining power of Coeff: -0.20 Suppliers p-value: 0.267 Threat of Substitutes Coeff: 0.95 p-value: 0.001 Threat of new entrants Coeff: 0.19 p-value: 0.46 Competitive Rivalry Coeff: -0.35 p-value: 0.25
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Bargaining power of buyers
Threat of substitutes
Interpretation:
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Significant relationship between economic exposure and industry structure variables (Porter’s five forces’)
Bargaining power of Buyers and Threat of Substitutes have a relationship significant at 95% level of significance
Negative significant relationship
Positive significant relationship
?
Most of these firms employ hedging to account for the exchange rate uncertainty
More the substitutes, more sources of exposure to currency risks
Strong Buyer is the government
Higher sensitivity of firm value to currency fluctuations
Both Result in lower sensitivity of firm value to currency fluctuations
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
“What are the bigshots doing about it”
26
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Company(Industry)
Ranbaxy(Healthcare) Forward Forward Options Swaps Forward Forward Forward Forward Forward Options Options Forward Forward Forward Options Swaps Options Forward Swaps Forward Forward Swaps Forward Options
Instruments Used
USD-INR EUR-USD USD-INR JPY-USD USD EUR JPY USD-INR GBP-INR USD-JPY USD-CHF USD EUR GBP USD USD USD USD USD 20 MN USD 1.44mn USD 1038.5mn JPY 10350 mn USD 123259 EUR 178830 JPY 44243 USD 1.41 mn GBP 5.31 mn USD 99.69 mn USD 10 mn USD 245 mn EUR 20 mn GBP 15 mn USD 173 mn USD 157 mn USD 57 USD 226 mn USD 150000 -
Siemens (Power)
Tata Motors (Auto)
Infosys (IT)
Jindal Steel (Metal)
BPCL (Oil and Gas) VIP (Consumer Durables) DLF (Real Estate) Dabur (FMCG)
* Source: Annual Reports
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
? ? ? ?
Historical Exchange Rates (2000-2010) – International Monetary Fund Historical Stock Prices (98 BSE companies) – Prowess database Industry Data – Prowess database, CMIE – Industry Analysis Service Annual Reports of companies studied
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
doc_486771464.pptx
the relationship between stock returns and currency fluctuations, estimation of Economic exposure of Indian firms, finds relationship between Industry Affiliation and Economic Exposure, explores relationship of Economic Exposure with Industry Characteristics. Understand the current hedging strategies adopted by Indian firms for currency exposure management.
26th Aug 2010
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Objective Methodology & Relevance Estimating economic exposure Industry Affiliation Industry Characteristics Current Hedging Practices
1
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
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Examine the relationship between stock returns and currency fluctuations Estimation of Economic exposure of Indian firms To find relationship between Industry Affiliation and Economic Exposure Explore relationship of Economic Exposure with Industry Characteristics Understand the current hedging strategies adopted by Indian firms for currency exposure management
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
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Comprehensive study of economic exposure estimation for 98 publicly listed Indian firms with cross-industry representation Earlier studies have usually focused only on the firm-level determinants of economic exposure
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Our study focuses on the industry determinants of economic exposure
Empirical proof of relationship of economic exposure with industry affiliation for Indian firms One of the first studies to study linkages between Economic Exposure and Porter’s Five Forces’ Model
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
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Estimation of Economic Exposure - Models Used
a) Adler and Simon Model (1986) Rit = ?i + ?i et + ?it where Rit = monthly stock returns for the firm (from Jan. 2000 ) et = monthly % change in exchange rate b) Jorion Model (1990) Rit = ?i + ?1i et + ?2i Rmt + ?it where Rit = monthly stock returns for the firm Rmt = monthly market return for BSE-500 et = monthly % change in exchange rate
4
Objective
Method
EEE
Ind Aff
Ind Char
Curr HP
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Relationship between Economic Exposure and Industry Structure
? Relationship between Economic Exposure and Industry Affiliation
? Dummy variable regression on economic exposure beta
? Relationship between Economic Exposure and Industry Characteristics ? Porter’s Five Forces’ Model used as proxy for Industry Characteristics
? Dummy variable regression
5
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
“Let’s look at individual sectors”
6
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Auto Sector
Model 1
Model 2
Company Amtek Auto Ltd. Apollo Tyres Ltd.
INR/Poun INR/Poun % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d BSE
-1.498 -1.707 -1.470 0.131 -0.493 -0.202 0.787 0.387 -0.653 -0.765 -1.718 -0.146 -0.028 0.317 0.676 0.263 0.911 1.015
Ashok Leyland Ltd.
Bharat Forge Ltd. Bosch Ltd. Cummins India Ltd. Escorts Ltd. Exide Industries Ltd. Hero Honda Motors Ltd. M R F Ltd. Mahindra & M Ltd. Maruti Suzuki Ind Ltd. Tata Motors Ltd. Average
-1.338
-1.817 -0.745 -0.931 -0.905 -1.528 -0.186 -1.674 -0.637 -1.016 -0.901 -1.145
-0.490
0.396 -0.363 0.119 0.100 -0.269 0.184 0.497 0.329 -0.745 0.667 -0.070
-0.674
-0.281 0.197 -0.326 -0.346 0.179 -0.050 -0.780 -0.671 0.659 -0.885 -0.282
0.836
0.710 0.407 0.234 0.009 0.918 0.238 -0.223 0.700 0.857 0.403 0.482
-0.399
-0.862 -0.124 -0.184 0.467 -0.707 0.289 -0.557 0.349 0.104 0.198 -0.219
-0.767
0.115 -0.546 -0.101 -0.304 -0.511 0.045 0.168 0.038 -0.761 0.343 -0.319
-0.157
0.245 0.539 0.085 0.408 0.631 0.211 -0.165 -0.128 0.809 -0.281 0.191
0.713
0.585 0.326 0.136 -0.171 0.811 0.175 -0.370 0.571 0.588 0.259 0.351
1.012
1.030 0.670 0.804 1.478 0.884 0.512 1.204 1.063 0.845 1.184 0.970
• Highest economic exposure for pound and Euro • Major import sources-rest of Asia, EU, ASEAN and North America
7
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Capital Goods
Company
A B B Ltd. Areva T & D India Ltd. B E M L Ltd.
Model 1
INR/USD
-1.406 -0.439 -2.645
Model 2
INR/EUR
-0.066 0.220 -0.392
INR/EUR
0.179 0.534 -0.104
INR/YEN INR/Pound INR/USD
-0.929 -1.218 -0.468 0.072 -0.694 0.398 -0.572 0.624 -1.666
INR/YEN INR/Pound
-0.471 -0.633 0.071 -0.038 -0.833 0.270
% return BSE
0.898 1.146 1.055
BEL
BHEL Crompton Greaves Ltd.
-1.084
-0.934 -2.006
0.186
-0.008 -0.151
0.000
-0.307 -0.714
-0.007
0.140 0.290
-0.221
-0.102 -0.948
-0.068
-0.253 -0.463
0.475
0.151 -0.133
-0.121
0.030 0.152
0.930
0.897 1.140
Gammon India Ltd.
Havells India Ltd. Jyoti Structures Ltd. Lakshmi Machine Works Ltd. Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Praj Industries Ltd. Reliance Industrial Infra Ltd. Siemens Ltd. Thermax Ltd. Usha Martin Ltd. Average
-4.411
-1.862 -2.470 -1.463 -1.610 -0.422 -2.384 -1.775 -1.825 -1.348 -1.755
-0.492
-0.568 -0.585 -0.321 0.648 0.704 0.579 -0.505 0.506 0.816 0.089
0.209
-0.568 -0.107 0.005 -0.685 -0.583 -0.524 0.053 -0.921 -0.771 -0.471
0.849
1.240 0.969 0.834 0.238 0.049 -0.210 1.221 0.897 -0.349 0.371
-3.356
-0.945 -1.029 -0.390 -0.488 0.984 -0.664 -0.641 -0.845 0.045 -0.638
-0.802
-0.839 -1.009 -0.637 0.317 0.290 0.073 -0.839 0.217 0.406 -0.240
0.789
-0.064 0.685 0.595 -0.068 0.191 0.422 0.677 -0.382 -0.004 0.144
0.711
1.120 0.780 0.693 0.091 -0.135 -0.435 1.073 0.768 -0.531 0.225
1.138
0.989 1.553 1.156 1.209 1.516 1.853 1.223 1.057 1.501 1.204
•Highest economic exposure to US dollar which could be because of the dependence of India on US for electrical equipments like motors, generators and transformers etc. • It draws imports from Europe as well 8
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Consumer Goods
Model 1
Model 2
Company Bajaj Electricals Ltd. Blue Star Ltd. Rajesh Exports Ltd. Titan Industries Ltd. V I P Industries Ltd. Videocon Industries Ltd. Whirlpool Of India Ltd. Average
INR/Pou INR/Pou % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN nd INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN nd BSE-500
-3.028 -2.179 -2.718 -0.779 -1.456 -2.523 -0.724 -1.915 -0.753 -0.300 -0.009 -0.690 -0.098 -0.448 -0.208 -0.358 -0.019 -0.734 0.540 -0.752 0.545 0.198 -0.810 -0.147 1.329 1.379 -0.798 0.716 1.117 1.019 1.203 0.852 -2.964 -2.140 -2.565 -0.752 -1.445 -2.503 -0.728 -1.871 -0.786 -0.320 -0.088 -0.704 -0.104 -0.459 -0.206 -0.381 0.151 -0.632 0.943 -0.681 0.576 0.252 -0.820 -0.030 1.242 1.326 -1.007 0.679 1.101 0.991 1.209 0.792 -0.471 -0.285 -1.123 -0.197 -0.084 -0.149 0.030 -0.326
• Exceptionally high economic exposure to US Dollar • 70% of the market is served with imports from US, China and Japan. • Major export destinations for Indian consumer durables industry have been Hong Kong, UAE , Malaysia and Finland
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
FMCG
Model 1
Model 2
Company Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. Dabur India Ltd. Hindustan Unilever Ltd. I T C Ltd. Nestle India Ltd. Ruchi Soya Inds. Ltd. Tata Global Beverages Ltd.
INR/Pou INR/Pou % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN nd INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN nd BSE-500
-0.645 -0.402 0.328 0.229 -1.160 -2.884 -0.645 0.012 -0.180 0.388 -0.023 0.054 -0.848 0.695 0.199 0.073 -0.186 -0.113 0.087 -0.023 -0.161 -0.202 -0.009 -0.811 -0.236 -0.162 1.516 -0.771 -0.367 0.046 0.762 0.720 -0.971 -1.736 0.104 -0.069 -0.312 0.260 -0.168 -0.001 -1.186 0.475 0.352 0.319 0.052 0.157 0.190 0.608 0.251 -0.238 -0.068 -0.868 -0.300 -0.186 1.366 -0.869 0.300 0.483 0.467 0.529 0.203 1.237 0.807
United Spirits Ltd.
Average
-1.696
-1.586
0.023
0.977
-0.717
-1.524
0.432
0.694
0.957
-0.859
-0.186
-0.013
0.038
-0.270
-0.316
0.295
-0.059
0.623
• Strong MNC presence • Not very high economic exposures to any of the major currency
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Healthcare
Model 1
Model 2
Company Apollo Hospitals Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. Biocon Ltd. Cipla Ltd.
Divi'S Laboratories Ltd.
INR/Poun INR/Poun % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d BSE
-0.434 -1.471 -0.812 -0.108 -1.281 -0.303 -0.460 -0.832 -2.247 -1.076 -2.114 -1.331 0.152 -0.181 0.947 -0.603 0.254 -1.002 0.017 0.261 0.420 0.612 0.607 0.062 0.016 0.634 -0.293 -0.078 -0.291 -0.143 0.208 -0.116 0.322 -0.462 -0.144 -0.841 0.101 0.539 -0.783 0.381 -0.260 0.623 -0.300 0.233 0.363 -0.435 -0.444 0.409 -1.004 0.446 0.460 -0.549 0.227 -0.308 0.456 0.332 0.146 0.206 -0.017 -0.032 -1.433 0.406 -1.397 -0.465 0.669 -0.376 0.604 -0.560 0.125 -1.073 -0.133 0.130 0.185 0.372 0.562 -0.149 -0.239 0.482 0.071 0.562 -0.144 0.099 0.447 0.164 0.565 -0.022 0.304 -0.411 0.496 1.015 -0.499 0.294 -0.412 0.237 -0.357 -0.187 0.296 -0.493 -0.549 0.302 -1.422 0.352 0.346 -0.617 0.712 1.254 0.915 0.474 1.076 0.549 0.478 0.862 0.877 1.287 0.774 0.934 0.557
Dr. Reddy's Glaxosmithkline
Ipca Laboratories Ltd.
Jubilant Organosys Ltd. Opto Circuits (India) Ltd. Piramal Healthcare Ltd. Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. Sun Pharma Inds. Ltd. Average
-0.947
0.157
-0.152
-0.006
-0.093
-0.005
0.204
-0.170
0.827
• The highest economic exposure for healthcare sector is for Yen • Indian exports are destined to various countries around the globe including the highly regulated markets of USA, Europe, Japan and Australia. • Import sources are UK, Germany and US, EU
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
IT
Model 1
Model 2
% return INR/Pound BSE
0.374 -0.159 -0.086 0.527 1.935 0.120 0.987 0.735 0.954 1.357 1.266 1.531
Company HCL Infosys Moser Baer Mphasis Ltd. N I I T Ltd.
INR/USD
-1.243 -0.008 -1.273 0.106 -1.995 -1.292
INR/EUR
0.161 0.510 0.223 -0.407 -0.557 -0.196
INR/YEN
-0.799 -0.711 -0.282 -0.910 -0.699 -1.058
INR/Pound INR/USD
0.494 -0.070 0.030 0.692 2.089 0.306 -0.328 0.674 -0.388 1.365 -0.820 0.128
INR/EUR
-0.109 0.309 -0.038 -0.778 -0.903 -0.614
INR/YEN
-0.295 -0.336 0.205 -0.217 -0.052 -0.277
Rolta India Ltd. Wipro Ltd.
Average
0.650
1.149
-1.358
-0.655
1.772
0.819
-0.740
-0.803
1.209
-0.722
0.126
-0.831
0.412
0.343
-0.188
-0.245
0.273
1.148
• Indian IT sector provides service to many parts of the world • Major export destinations - US, UK
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Real Estate
Model 1
Model 2
Company Ackruti City Ltd. Parsvnath Dev Ltd.
Peninsula Land Ltd.
INR/Poun INR/Poun % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d BSE-500
-3.044 -1.927 -2.805 -3.945 -1.813 -2.680 0.266 -0.931 -0.184 -1.385 0.777 0.514 1.198 -0.449 -0.254 0.111 -0.857 -0.536 0.155 1.306 0.102 2.162 -0.204 1.491 -2.008 1.000 -1.064 -1.773 -1.256 -1.326 0.276 -0.876 -0.697 -1.344 0.801 0.116 1.412 0.139 0.704 0.547 -0.592 0.209 -0.141 0.487 -0.127 1.555 -0.288 1.314 0.784 2.224 1.876 1.650 0.543 1.460
Sobha Developers Ltd. Sunteck Realty Ltd. Unitech Ltd. Average
-2.702
-0.157
-0.131
0.835
-1.071
-0.287
0.403
0.467
1.423
•Majority of FDIs are from West Asia and investors from the US and Europe •Highly exposed to Dollar fluctuations as shown by the results •Same is the case with Euro but coefficient is much smaller
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Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Power
Model 1
Model 2
Company A B B Ltd. BHEL Crompton Greaves Ltd. G M R Infrastructure Ltd. G V K Power & Infra Ltd. Neyveli Lignite Corp. Ltd. Reliance Infra Ltd. Siemens Ltd. Suzlon Energy Ltd.
INR/Poun INR/Poun % return INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN d BSE-500
-1.406 -0.934 -2.006 -1.008 -1.477 -1.295 -1.802 0.179 -0.008 -0.151 -0.823 -2.097 0.250 -0.668 -0.929 -0.307 -0.714 -1.128 -0.214 -0.327 0.027 0.072 0.140 0.290 -0.483 0.187 0.224 0.686 -0.572 -0.102 -0.948 0.733 -0.008 -0.085 -0.599 -0.066 -0.253 -0.463 -0.757 -2.003 -0.106 -1.022 -0.471 0.151 -0.133 -0.731 0.461 0.339 0.689 -0.038 0.030 0.152 -1.092 -0.025 0.065 0.528 0.898 0.897 1.140 1.361 1.448 1.304 1.296
-1.775
-2.354
-0.505
0.145
0.053
-0.442
1.221
-0.167
-0.641
-0.759
-0.839
0.062
0.677
0.372
1.073
-0.521
1.223
1.704
Tata Power Co. Ltd.
Average
-1.044
1.154
-0.357
-0.748
-0.010
0.849
0.212
-0.884
1.114
-1.510
-0.252
-0.434
0.142
-0.299
-0.460
0.157
-0.071
1.239
• Coefficient for the US dollar, British pound and Euro is negative implying that appreciation in these currencies will lead to a decrease in company’s value.
15
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Metal
Model 1
Model 2
Company
Hindalco Ind. Ltd.
INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN
-0.575 -0.812 -1.960 0.271 0.383 1.095 -0.561 -0.632 -0.434
INR/Poun d INR/USD INR/EUR INR/YEN
0.299 -0.181 0.108 0.456 0.342 -0.680 -0.032 0.043 0.718 0.007 0.003 0.270
INR/Poun % return d BSE-500
0.164 -0.332 -0.060 1.111 1.244 1.379
Hindustan Zinc Ltd. J S W Steel Ltd.
Jindal Saw Ltd.
Jindal Steel & Pow Ltd. National Al. Co. Ltd. Sesa Goa Ltd. SAIL Tata Steel Ltd. Welspun Corp Ltd. Average
-0.771
-2.924 -0.860 -1.884 -1.845 -1.670 -2.055
2.560
2.057 -0.167 1.122 0.866 0.355 0.314
-2.374
-0.730 -0.117 0.146 -0.072 -0.268 -1.138
-0.547
-0.937 0.042 -0.202 -0.356 0.470 0.371
0.658
-1.707 0.082 -0.587 -0.553 -0.439 -0.276
2.139
1.699 -0.445 0.740 0.486 -0.008 0.195
-1.588
-0.060 0.401 0.859 0.639 0.410 -0.549
-0.734
-1.096 -0.081 -0.372 -0.526 0.309 -0.087
1.540
1.312 1.016 1.398 1.392 1.327 1.590
-1.536
0.886
-0.618
-0.093
-0.271
0.554
0.039
-0.281
1.331
• Largest economic exposure to Euro • The regression coefficient for $ and yen are negative • Belgium, Japan and USA are key exports markets • China and Korea, UK and USA are the key sources for imports 16
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
All Sectors
Model 1
Model 2
Sector Auto Capital goods Consumer goods
INR/USD
-1.1447 -1.7553 -1.9153
INR/EUR
-0.0703 0.0886 -0.3580
INR/YEN
-0.2824 -0.4705 -0.1472
INR/Pound INR/USD
0.4818 0.3711 0.8521 -0.2188 -0.6384 -1.8711
INR/EUR
-0.3190 -0.2404 -0.3809
INR/YEN
0.1912 0.1439 -0.0303
% return INR/Pound BSE-500
0.3509 0.2246 0.7917 0.9702 1.2038 -0.3256
FMCG
Health care IT Oil and gas Real estate Metal Power
-0.8595
-0.9475 -0.7222 -0.1984 -2.7021 -1.5357 -1.4243
-0.1860
0.1573 0.1262 -0.0724 -0.1571 0.8857 -0.2222
-0.0128
-0.1524 -0.8308 -0.2840 -0.1312 -0.6180 -0.3663
0.0379
-0.0060 0.4124 0.3902 0.8353 -0.0930 0.0885
-0.2699
-0.0930 0.3432 0.6967 -1.0712 -0.2705 -0.2552
-0.3158
-0.0054 -0.1876 -0.3360 -0.2875 0.5535 -0.4099
0.2952
0.2037 -0.2446 0.2085 0.4031 0.0392 0.1913
-0.0588
-0.1701 0.2727 0.2727 0.4665 -0.2815 -0.1266
0.6231
0.8267 1.1483 0.9647 1.4228 1.3309 1.1878
•Indian consumer durables industry has the highest economic exposure to the US Dollar which might because of the previously stated reason - High import dependence on US. •Healthcare has the lowest economic exposure to US Dollar and Euro which could be because of the balanced state of trade with US and European countries. •Indian metal industry has the highest positive economic exposure to the Euro because of the huge exports to Belgium and other European countries.
17
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
All Sectors
Model 1
Model 2
Sector Auto Capital goods Consumer goods FMCG Health care IT Oil and gas Real estate Metal Power
INR/USD
-1.1447 -1.7553 -1.9153 -0.8595 -0.9475 -0.7222 -0.1984 -2.7021 -1.5357 -1.4243
INR/EUR
-0.0703 0.0886 -0.3580 -0.1860 0.1573 0.1262 -0.0724 -0.1571 0.8857 -0.2222
INR/YEN
-0.2824 -0.4705 -0.1472 -0.0128 -0.1524 -0.8308 -0.2840 -0.1312 -0.6180 -0.3663
INR/Pound INR/USD
0.4818 0.3711 0.8521 0.0379 -0.0060 0.4124 0.3902 0.8353 -0.0930 0.0885 -0.2188 -0.6384 -1.8711 -0.2699 -0.0930 0.3432 0.6967 -1.0712 -0.2705 -0.2552
INR/EUR
-0.3190 -0.2404 -0.3809 -0.3158 -0.0054 -0.1876 -0.3360 -0.2875 0.5535 -0.4099
INR/YEN
0.1912 0.1439 -0.0303 0.2952 0.2037 -0.2446 0.2085 0.4031 0.0392 0.1913
% return INR/Pound BSE-500
0.3509 0.2246 0.7917 -0.0588 -0.1701 0.2727 0.2727 0.4665 -0.2815 -0.1266 0.9702 1.2038 -0.3256 0.6231 0.8267 1.1483 0.9647 1.4228 1.3309 1.1878
•Sectors having high economic exposure to US Dollar are Consumer Durables, Capital goods, IT •Sector having high economic exposure to Euro are consumer durables and metal •Consumer Goods industry can be identified as the industry having high economic exposure to all the major currencies
18
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
“Is there an impact of the kind of industry”
19
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Sample Technique Used
: :
98 publicly listed Indian firms Dummy variable regression
?i = ?i + ?1 D1 + ?2 D2 +… + ?10 D10 + ?i
where Dp = 1 if industry type of company i = p = 0 if industry type of company i ? p and ?i = economic exposure beta of company
20
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Results:
Regression Statistic Number of firms Significance Level Adler Model 98 8.8 E-07 and Simon Jorion’s Model 98 3.56E-07
Implications:
• Industry affiliation has a highly significant impact on Economic exposure • Firms need to consider industry characteristics like industry concentration also in their international financial management strategies.
21
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
“What are the key features of industry I am in”
22
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
?
Porter’s Five Forces’ Model used as proxy for Industry structure
Buyer Power High High High High Low High Low High Low Low Supplier Power High Low Low Low Low Low High High High Low Threat of Substitutes New entrants High High Low Low High Low High Low Low Low Low Low Low Low High High Low Low Low Low Competitive Rivalry High High High High High High Low High High Low
Sector Auto Capital goods Consumer durables FMCG Healthcare IT Oil and Gas Real Estate Metal Power
23
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
? ?
Sample Technique Used
Regression Statistic Number of firms Significance Level Intercept
: :
98 publicly listed Indian firms Dummy variable regression
Method 2 98 9.72 E-05 Coeff: 0.086 p-value: 0.68 Coeff: -0.71 p-value: 0.012 Coeff: 0.07 p-value: 0.68 Coeff: 0.75 p-value: 0.011 Coeff: 0.23 p-value: 0.36 Coeff: -0.42 p-value: 0.17
Method1 98 9.68 E-05 Coeff: -0.86 p-value: 8.93E-05 Bargaining power of Coeff: -0.72 Buyers p-value: 0.011 Bargaining power of Coeff: -0.20 Suppliers p-value: 0.267 Threat of Substitutes Coeff: 0.95 p-value: 0.001 Threat of new entrants Coeff: 0.19 p-value: 0.46 Competitive Rivalry Coeff: -0.35 p-value: 0.25
24
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Bargaining power of buyers
Threat of substitutes
Interpretation:
?
Significant relationship between economic exposure and industry structure variables (Porter’s five forces’)
Bargaining power of Buyers and Threat of Substitutes have a relationship significant at 95% level of significance
Negative significant relationship
Positive significant relationship
?
Most of these firms employ hedging to account for the exchange rate uncertainty
More the substitutes, more sources of exposure to currency risks
Strong Buyer is the government
Higher sensitivity of firm value to currency fluctuations
Both Result in lower sensitivity of firm value to currency fluctuations
25
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
“What are the bigshots doing about it”
26
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
Company(Industry)
Ranbaxy(Healthcare) Forward Forward Options Swaps Forward Forward Forward Forward Forward Options Options Forward Forward Forward Options Swaps Options Forward Swaps Forward Forward Swaps Forward Options
Instruments Used
USD-INR EUR-USD USD-INR JPY-USD USD EUR JPY USD-INR GBP-INR USD-JPY USD-CHF USD EUR GBP USD USD USD USD USD 20 MN USD 1.44mn USD 1038.5mn JPY 10350 mn USD 123259 EUR 178830 JPY 44243 USD 1.41 mn GBP 5.31 mn USD 99.69 mn USD 10 mn USD 245 mn EUR 20 mn GBP 15 mn USD 173 mn USD 157 mn USD 57 USD 226 mn USD 150000 -
Siemens (Power)
Tata Motors (Auto)
Infosys (IT)
Jindal Steel (Metal)
BPCL (Oil and Gas) VIP (Consumer Durables) DLF (Real Estate) Dabur (FMCG)
* Source: Annual Reports
27
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
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Historical Exchange Rates (2000-2010) – International Monetary Fund Historical Stock Prices (98 BSE companies) – Prowess database Industry Data – Prowess database, CMIE – Industry Analysis Service Annual Reports of companies studied
28
Objective Method EEE Ind Aff Ind Char Curr HP
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