Dangerous neighbour

The killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti, mouthpiece of Baluchi aspirations, by Pakistani armed forces in the Marri tribal area takes the country one more step towards becoming a failed state.

The Oxford-educated tribal leader had dominated Baluchi politics for half a century, being briefly both chief minister and governor of the province.

Baluchistan is a barren state with rich mineral and gas deposits, and Baluchi nationalist grievances have long centred around Islamabad extracting its mineral resources without giving anything back to the region in terms of development.

While many Pakistani political parties counsel talking to Baluchi leaders this option has been ruled out by the Musharraf government, which prefers to crush dissidents by force.

There's a structural parallel with the way the government has subverted democratic institutions in the country as a whole; few believe that it will allow free and fair elections to be held next year.

In Baluchistan there may also be elements of a blood feud in the killing of Bugti, as Baluchi rebels had fired on a helicopter flown by Musharraf.

But Bugti's death has sparked large-scale riots in Baluchistan and other parts of Pakistan.

Outside Baluchistan, Sind and NWFP too are seething with unrest against the army and Punjabi domination, which they see as going hand in hand. This is clearly a dangerous situation which could spiral out of control.

There are dangers for New Delhi here as well because if Pakistan begins to implode, its rulers will try to hold it together by directing anger against an external target, and India is the obvious candidate.

Islamabad will not accept that Baluchistan is its own doing it has to do with Pakistan's long succession of military coups which has come in the way of building durable institutions of governance that accommodate popular aspirations.

India too has experience of provincial unrest, the most prominent example being Kashmir. But Kashmir has metastasised into a terror problem that can strike in any part of the country.

Instead of gloating over each other's discomfiture, New Delhi should step up its own vigilance against Pakistani-sponsored war by proxy which could well escalate. That's the occupational hazard of living in a dangerous neighbourhood.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-1933546,curpg-1.cms
 
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