Description
This is a presentation describes the soda ash market, nature of the soda ash industry, outlook of soda ash industry, indian fertilizer industry, competitor analysis of tata chemicals, valuation of tata chemicals.
TATA CHEMICALS LIMITED
Company Profile
TATA Chemicals
Living
Industrial
Farm Essentials
TATA Salt
I Shakti
TATA Swach
Soda Ash, Sodium Bicarb
Urea
Company Credentials
World’s second largest producer of soda ash India’s market leader in the branded, iodised salt segment Leading player in the domestic crop nutrients space Manufacturing facilities across 4 continents – Asia, USA, UK, Africa
Soda Ash
Soda Ash
Natural Soda Ash
Synthetic
Key raw materials: Natural gas, coal and coke
Dependent on crude prices due to high transportation costs
Key raw material: Limestone, industrial salt, coal and coke
•Globally synthetic soda ash comprises of approximately 75% of total production •Cost pressure on synthetic soda ash leads to price revision. •TCL has been increasing its share of Natural Soda Ash (48%) – cost advantage
Soda Ash Market
Global market Global Soda Ash market by revenue, 2008 •US is the largest exporter of Soda Ash with 45% of the total production catering to exports •Consolidation has taken place in the industry and now the top 3 players command ~35% of the world market •US, Europe and Asia account for 95% of the production and 86% of the demand for soda ash. •Global Soda ash consumption (2009): 48.1 Million MT
Source: Emkay research, 2008
Soda Ash Market
Domestic market Key Players: •TATA Chemicals ltd. •Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals Ltd. •Nirma •Tuticorin Alkali Ltd. •Aditya Birla Chemicals Ltd. •Punjab Alkalies and Chemicals Ltd. •Chemfab Alkalies Ltd. •Jayshree Chemicals Ltd. •Gujarat Heavy Chemicals Ltd. Key Strengths of competitors: •GHCL Ltd. has mining rights for lignite and limestone and also manufactures salt lowest variable cost producer of synthetic soda ash in the world •Nirma – Forward integration – leading producer of soaps and detergents in India
Soda Ash constitutes about 25 – 30% of the domestic Chlor – alkali market Indian Soda Ash industry, which previously depended on imports, has made forays in the overseas market also. Indian exports of soda ash increased from 2.5% of production in FY'00 to 14.9% of production in FY'05 making the trade balance positive
End users of Soda Ash
Domestic Consumption Global Soda Ash Consumption
Source: Emkay Research, 2008
Source: Emkay research, 2008
Key end user industries: •Glass – Automotive industry, Construction industry •Soaps & Detergents
Nature of the Soda Ash Industry
High logistics cost Energy intensiveness High capital investments Cyclicality Commodity product Key Success lies in: Better integration and diversification Export focus Cost competitiveness
Soda Ash Industry in 2009
Global Capacity increased by 7% to 61 Million MT – Main contributor was China
• By the end of 2009, China’s total soda ash production capacity stood at 24.6 Million tonnes/year of which domestic consumption was 17.2 Million tonnes.
Sluggish economic recovery in the traditional big two soda ash markets of Europe and US Chinese exports into India were affected by the Indian government's extension of its 16% safeguard duty. Domestic demand for Soda ash grew by 8%
Outlook for the Soda Ash Industry
Recovery expected in the global automotive market, however construction sector still bleak. Emerging market demand, particularly for flat glass and detergents, will continue to be the growth driver, but growth rates are forecast to be lower. Domestic demand will be driven by growth in the detergent industry Upward movements in Soda ash prices expected in 2010 Aggressive capacity additions by China and Turkey could hurt global industry fundamentals
Indian Fertilizer Industry: Overview
• Fertiliser consumption has increased 20 fold since independence. • This remains one of the few highly regulated industries in India • The Fertilizer subsidy was Rs 99,494.71 crore in FY 2008-09, which came down by about 36% to Rs 64,032.30 crore in FY 2009-10. • Presently, India consumes 50 MMT (product) or 25 MMT (nutrient) of fertiliser. • Domestic capacities -stagnant during the past decade • 35% of total demand being met through imports.
Fertilizer Sector - India
Urea : Government Policies
Retention Pricing Scheme (RPS) : • Introduced in 1997 to reconcile :increasing cost of fertilisers and need to keep prices low. • Restriction on offtake of urea from plants exceeding (115%) capacity utilisation. • Now being replaced by New Pricing Scheme. Distribution policy : • Urea comes under the purview of Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955. • Upto 50% of a state’s allocation of urea is reserved for farmers’ co-operatives. • If a manufacturer exceeds the state quota, the excess quantity does not qualify for price subsidy & transport subsidy. • GOI policy shift from product based subsidy to a nutrient based subsidy (effective April 2010.) Import policy : • Imports on a restricted list. • Price and subsidies are fixed in such a way that the farmgate prices for imported and domestic fertilisers are more or less the same.
Urea : Major Players
Co-operative sector
• IFFCO • Kribco: Hazira & Gorakhpur
Public Sector
• FACT,Cochin • NFL • Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers, Trombay, Thane • Gujarat Narmada Fertilizers Corporation, Bharuch • Gujarat State Fertilizers Corporation, Vadodara
Private sector
• Chambal Fertilizer, Katedan • Duncans Industries, Panki • Indo Gulf Corporation, Jagdishpur • Oswal Chemicals & Fertilizers, Shahjanpur • SPIC, Tuticorin
Profitability
Net Sales
Sales (Rs. 000' Crores)
12.00 10.00 Profit Margins (%) 14.00 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Years
Net Profit margin Operating margin
8.00
6.00 4.00 2.00 -
Net Sales
2006
2007
2008
Years
2009
2010
40% 35% 30%
Return (%)
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2006 2007 2008 Years 2009 2010
ROTA Return on equity
Liquidity
Current Ratio
2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
Free Cash Flow
1.63
1600.00 1400.00 1393.39
1.86 1.57 1.36 1.42
1200.00 1000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00
-200.00
633.25 383.17
-30.69 2006 2007 290.09
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2008
2009
2010
Cash - Cash Cycle
60.00 50.00 40.00
53.62
40.26
30.00
20.00 10.00
34.70 27.51 17.86
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Solvency
Interest Coverage Ratio
16.00
Debt/Equity Ratio
1.40 1.31 1.29 0.81 0.72
1.06
14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 -
13.47 9.61
8.78
1.20 1.00
0.80 0.60
3.37 3.32
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0.40 0.20 -
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Net Debt/EBITDA
3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.74 3.24
1.50 1.00 0.50 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.85
0.58
1.22
2010
Competitor Analysis
Tata Chemicals Revenue EBITDA Margin Net Income Margin ROE ROTA Asset Turnover Debt Equity Debt/Equity Interest Coverage Quick Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio Debtors Turnover Ratio Number of Days In Working Capital Source: Moneycontrol.com
9567.57 16.1% 7.8% 10.2% 7.1% 1.42 4993.72 4720.74 1.06 4.34 0.87
10.91 6.84 32.32
Gujarat State Fertilizers Company National Fertilisers 4129.17 5099.62 11.2% 6.0% 6.2% 3.3% 11.9% 10.8% 9.0% 8.6% 1.24 1.74 687.58 2144.13 0.32 13.77 1.55
6.76 7.29 102.41
GHCL 1276.23 24.0% 11.5% 11.9% 5.6% 0.45 1314.09 1184.85 1.11 2.15 1.25
4.1 8.99 121.39
Solvay 34,819 14.1% 4.3% 4.1% 2.1% 0.48 NA NA 39.44 NA 3.2
5.27 3.69 NA
403 1582 0.25 24.71 1.9
27.61 6.01 82.62
NA: Not available
Valuation
Method Tata Chemicals Ltd Value per Weight Product Share 241.91 510.06 328.40 371.97 468.01 636.11 1 2 1 2 2 2 10 241.91 1,020.11 328.40 743.94 936.01 1,272.21 4,542.58 454.26
Net Assets Method PECV Method Market Price Method DCF Method EV/EBITDA Method PE Multiple Method Total Fair Value per share
Thank You!
doc_400108189.pptx
This is a presentation describes the soda ash market, nature of the soda ash industry, outlook of soda ash industry, indian fertilizer industry, competitor analysis of tata chemicals, valuation of tata chemicals.
TATA CHEMICALS LIMITED
Company Profile
TATA Chemicals
Living
Industrial
Farm Essentials
TATA Salt
I Shakti
TATA Swach
Soda Ash, Sodium Bicarb
Urea
Company Credentials
World’s second largest producer of soda ash India’s market leader in the branded, iodised salt segment Leading player in the domestic crop nutrients space Manufacturing facilities across 4 continents – Asia, USA, UK, Africa
Soda Ash
Soda Ash
Natural Soda Ash
Synthetic
Key raw materials: Natural gas, coal and coke
Dependent on crude prices due to high transportation costs
Key raw material: Limestone, industrial salt, coal and coke
•Globally synthetic soda ash comprises of approximately 75% of total production •Cost pressure on synthetic soda ash leads to price revision. •TCL has been increasing its share of Natural Soda Ash (48%) – cost advantage
Soda Ash Market
Global market Global Soda Ash market by revenue, 2008 •US is the largest exporter of Soda Ash with 45% of the total production catering to exports •Consolidation has taken place in the industry and now the top 3 players command ~35% of the world market •US, Europe and Asia account for 95% of the production and 86% of the demand for soda ash. •Global Soda ash consumption (2009): 48.1 Million MT
Source: Emkay research, 2008
Soda Ash Market
Domestic market Key Players: •TATA Chemicals ltd. •Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals Ltd. •Nirma •Tuticorin Alkali Ltd. •Aditya Birla Chemicals Ltd. •Punjab Alkalies and Chemicals Ltd. •Chemfab Alkalies Ltd. •Jayshree Chemicals Ltd. •Gujarat Heavy Chemicals Ltd. Key Strengths of competitors: •GHCL Ltd. has mining rights for lignite and limestone and also manufactures salt lowest variable cost producer of synthetic soda ash in the world •Nirma – Forward integration – leading producer of soaps and detergents in India
Soda Ash constitutes about 25 – 30% of the domestic Chlor – alkali market Indian Soda Ash industry, which previously depended on imports, has made forays in the overseas market also. Indian exports of soda ash increased from 2.5% of production in FY'00 to 14.9% of production in FY'05 making the trade balance positive
End users of Soda Ash
Domestic Consumption Global Soda Ash Consumption
Source: Emkay Research, 2008
Source: Emkay research, 2008
Key end user industries: •Glass – Automotive industry, Construction industry •Soaps & Detergents
Nature of the Soda Ash Industry
High logistics cost Energy intensiveness High capital investments Cyclicality Commodity product Key Success lies in: Better integration and diversification Export focus Cost competitiveness
Soda Ash Industry in 2009
Global Capacity increased by 7% to 61 Million MT – Main contributor was China
• By the end of 2009, China’s total soda ash production capacity stood at 24.6 Million tonnes/year of which domestic consumption was 17.2 Million tonnes.
Sluggish economic recovery in the traditional big two soda ash markets of Europe and US Chinese exports into India were affected by the Indian government's extension of its 16% safeguard duty. Domestic demand for Soda ash grew by 8%
Outlook for the Soda Ash Industry
Recovery expected in the global automotive market, however construction sector still bleak. Emerging market demand, particularly for flat glass and detergents, will continue to be the growth driver, but growth rates are forecast to be lower. Domestic demand will be driven by growth in the detergent industry Upward movements in Soda ash prices expected in 2010 Aggressive capacity additions by China and Turkey could hurt global industry fundamentals
Indian Fertilizer Industry: Overview
• Fertiliser consumption has increased 20 fold since independence. • This remains one of the few highly regulated industries in India • The Fertilizer subsidy was Rs 99,494.71 crore in FY 2008-09, which came down by about 36% to Rs 64,032.30 crore in FY 2009-10. • Presently, India consumes 50 MMT (product) or 25 MMT (nutrient) of fertiliser. • Domestic capacities -stagnant during the past decade • 35% of total demand being met through imports.
Fertilizer Sector - India
Urea : Government Policies
Retention Pricing Scheme (RPS) : • Introduced in 1997 to reconcile :increasing cost of fertilisers and need to keep prices low. • Restriction on offtake of urea from plants exceeding (115%) capacity utilisation. • Now being replaced by New Pricing Scheme. Distribution policy : • Urea comes under the purview of Essential Commodities Act (ECA) 1955. • Upto 50% of a state’s allocation of urea is reserved for farmers’ co-operatives. • If a manufacturer exceeds the state quota, the excess quantity does not qualify for price subsidy & transport subsidy. • GOI policy shift from product based subsidy to a nutrient based subsidy (effective April 2010.) Import policy : • Imports on a restricted list. • Price and subsidies are fixed in such a way that the farmgate prices for imported and domestic fertilisers are more or less the same.
Urea : Major Players
Co-operative sector
• IFFCO • Kribco: Hazira & Gorakhpur
Public Sector
• FACT,Cochin • NFL • Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers, Trombay, Thane • Gujarat Narmada Fertilizers Corporation, Bharuch • Gujarat State Fertilizers Corporation, Vadodara
Private sector
• Chambal Fertilizer, Katedan • Duncans Industries, Panki • Indo Gulf Corporation, Jagdishpur • Oswal Chemicals & Fertilizers, Shahjanpur • SPIC, Tuticorin
Profitability
Net Sales
Sales (Rs. 000' Crores)
12.00 10.00 Profit Margins (%) 14.00 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Years
Net Profit margin Operating margin
8.00
6.00 4.00 2.00 -
Net Sales
2006
2007
2008
Years
2009
2010
40% 35% 30%
Return (%)
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2006 2007 2008 Years 2009 2010
ROTA Return on equity
Liquidity
Current Ratio
2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
Free Cash Flow
1.63
1600.00 1400.00 1393.39
1.86 1.57 1.36 1.42
1200.00 1000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00
-200.00
633.25 383.17
-30.69 2006 2007 290.09
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2008
2009
2010
Cash - Cash Cycle
60.00 50.00 40.00
53.62
40.26
30.00
20.00 10.00
34.70 27.51 17.86
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Solvency
Interest Coverage Ratio
16.00
Debt/Equity Ratio
1.40 1.31 1.29 0.81 0.72
1.06
14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 -
13.47 9.61
8.78
1.20 1.00
0.80 0.60
3.37 3.32
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0.40 0.20 -
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Net Debt/EBITDA
3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.74 3.24
1.50 1.00 0.50 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.85
0.58
1.22
2010
Competitor Analysis
Tata Chemicals Revenue EBITDA Margin Net Income Margin ROE ROTA Asset Turnover Debt Equity Debt/Equity Interest Coverage Quick Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio Debtors Turnover Ratio Number of Days In Working Capital Source: Moneycontrol.com
9567.57 16.1% 7.8% 10.2% 7.1% 1.42 4993.72 4720.74 1.06 4.34 0.87
10.91 6.84 32.32
Gujarat State Fertilizers Company National Fertilisers 4129.17 5099.62 11.2% 6.0% 6.2% 3.3% 11.9% 10.8% 9.0% 8.6% 1.24 1.74 687.58 2144.13 0.32 13.77 1.55
6.76 7.29 102.41
GHCL 1276.23 24.0% 11.5% 11.9% 5.6% 0.45 1314.09 1184.85 1.11 2.15 1.25
4.1 8.99 121.39
Solvay 34,819 14.1% 4.3% 4.1% 2.1% 0.48 NA NA 39.44 NA 3.2
5.27 3.69 NA
403 1582 0.25 24.71 1.9
27.61 6.01 82.62
NA: Not available
Valuation
Method Tata Chemicals Ltd Value per Weight Product Share 241.91 510.06 328.40 371.97 468.01 636.11 1 2 1 2 2 2 10 241.91 1,020.11 328.40 743.94 936.01 1,272.21 4,542.58 454.26
Net Assets Method PECV Method Market Price Method DCF Method EV/EBITDA Method PE Multiple Method Total Fair Value per share
Thank You!
doc_400108189.pptx